Jet stream moved northwards 270 miles in 22 years; climate change to blame?

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 4:11 PM GMT on June 05, 2008

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Climate change is forcing the jet stream higher and closer to the pole in both the Northern and Southern Hemisphere, according research published this April in the journal Geophysical Research Letters. In their paper, "Historical trends in the jet streams", researchers Cristina Archer and Ken Caldeira of Stanford's Carnegie Institution of Washington analyzed data from 1979-2001, and found that the Northern Hemisphere jet stream moved northward at approximately 125 miles per decade (270 miles during the 22-year period of the study). The jet moved higher by 5-23 meters during this period, and the wind speeds decreased by about 1 mph. Archer and Caldeira's study confirms other research showing a poleward movement of the jet stream in recent decades (Fu et al., 2006; Hu and Fu, 2007). All of these changes are consistent with the behavior of the jet stream predicted by global warming theory. For example, Lorenz and DeWeaver (2007) found poleward shifts of the jet stream by 2100 in the forecasts of 15 climate models used to formulate the "official" word on climate, the 2007 Intergovernmental Panel for Climate Change (IPCC) report. However, the authors were careful not to say how much of this shift in the jet stream was due to natural causes versus human-caused climate change. It is unknown if the jet stream has natural decades-long changes in its path that could account for the observed poleward shift.


Figure 1. The jet stream is located where the strongest winds at the top of the troposphere are found (35,000-45,000 feet high, 200-300 mb in pressure).

Archer and Caldeira note that "These changes in jet stream latitude, altitude, and strength have likely affected, and perhaps will continue to affect, the formation and evolution of storms in the mid-latitudes and of hurricanes in the sub-tropical regions." They don't specify what these changes might be. There is very little research that has been done suggesting how changes in the jet stream might affect hurricane formation and strength. One effect we may begin to see in coming decades is a reduction and/or delay in the number of hurricanes that recurve northward out to sea. Recurvature occurs when a hurricane begins to "feel" the westerly winds of the jet stream. As the jet stream continues to move northward and weaken as the globe warms, we can expect that hurricanes moving though the Caribbean will be less likely to recurve, resulting in more hurricane strikes in Mexico and Central America. Unfortunately, the quality of the Atlantic hurricane database for non-U.S. landfalls is not very good, and it will be several decades before we will be able to tell if the number of hurricane landfalls in Mexico and Central America is increasing due to a poleward shift in the jet stream.

References
Fu, Q., C. M. Johanson, J. M. Wallace, and T. Reichler (2006), Enhanced mid-latitude tropospheric warming in satellite measurements, Science, 312, 1179, doi:10.1126/science.1125566.

Hu, Y., and Q. Fu (2007), Observed poleward expansion of the Hadley circulation since 1979, Atmos. Chem. Phys. Disc., 7, 9367.9384.

Lorenz, D. J., and E. T. DeWeaver (2007), Tropopause height and zonal wind response to global warming in the IPCC scenario integrations, J. Geophys. Res., 112, D10119, doi:10.1029/2006JD008087.

Jeff Masters

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1514. OUSHAWN
1:57 PM GMT on June 09, 2008
Haven't had a chance to really take a look at it closely but what is going on in the SW Caribbean and the blow up of activity down there...anything to it?
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1513. TampaSpin
9:56 AM EDT on June 09, 2008
Without being a Smart-Butt,,,,,but what would be a defination in most peoples eyes as a tropical season bust......just wondering.
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1512. Buhdog
1:52 PM GMT on June 09, 2008
Saw a funnel cloud yesterday in the Ft Myers area...it did not touch down the period of time I could see it....There was very little in rotation...

You ever see one of those funnels that come down and barely spin? They look like a dipping cloud until you see a small turn...Common in Florida.
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1511. newt3d
1:47 PM GMT on June 09, 2008
Hurricane season being a bust = good, right? Why is everybody talking about it so negatively?

That aside, it's way too early to tell. Also, it only takes one storm. Hurricane Andrew didn't form until August 22nd.
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1510. groundswell
1:46 PM GMT on June 09, 2008
"A strong (996 mb) extra-tropical open ocean low way out in the northern mid-Atlantic near 40N/45W will spin away through the first half of the work week as it drifts slowly north. This strong low has a tight fetch of gale force NE wind that may allow a small/inconsistent long period ground swell to work its way to Florida into mid-week."

From local surf report-I wouldn't count on this, forget it...it's flat out there.
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1509. HurakanPR
1:30 PM GMT on June 09, 2008
I think that the few storms in climatologically speaking develop in June are usually in the western caribbean, there have been exceptions like tropical storm Ana, in 79. You all know that the eastern caribbean is hostile because the westerlies this time of the yearwill killed the waves coming from Africa. I don't think anything happening on out of the ordinary.
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1508. NEwxguy
1:44 PM GMT on June 09, 2008
GM, all,summer has arrived in the northeast!!!
Member Since: September 6, 2007 Posts: 863 Comments: 15114
1507. HIEXPRESS
9:37 AM EDT on June 09, 2008
1492. weathermanwannabe 9:00 AM

Lol....That outlook was a bit painful to read through.....Just get to the point right?....


Yeah, GM wannabe.
The only thing that stays the same: Change

Working on the boat today - but will check during "sun breaks". Don't want that ULL to sneak up on me. LOL
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1505. trunkmonkey
1:38 PM GMT on June 09, 2008
The moisture from 91L is following the jet right up the to plains and midwest, we who live there don't need any more moisture, we are overflowing,

Action: | Ignore User
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1504. MasterForecaster
1:37 PM GMT on June 09, 2008
I posted a link to radar imagery earlier...can people see my posts or am I being ignored =[
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1503. TampaSpin
9:36 AM EDT on June 09, 2008
House i think just the general strong severe Thunderstorms. I doubt tornados will be around but, that can never be ruled out in Florida.
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1502. TampaSpin
9:34 AM EDT on June 09, 2008
1490. TampaSpin 8:59 AM EDT on June 09, 2008
After the heating of the day over florida, that ULL should help alot of storms pop.

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1500. TampaSpin
9:23 AM EDT on June 09, 2008
I know some on here use firefox...which i know little about.....but, is there anything that updates the blog without having to refresh it all the time.
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1499. guygee
1:14 PM GMT on June 09, 2008
Good morning!

Looks like we are in educational mode.

Re: 1495. Patrap 1:06 PM GMT on June 09, 2008
Patrap that is an awesome link, thanks!

I am off to do some reading.
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1498. Tazmanian
6:09 AM PDT on June 09, 2008
92E is on the back up navy site


i will give you a link for it

i would want to ues it in tell the navy site is fixs


Link
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1496. guygee
1:08 PM GMT on June 09, 2008
1383. StormW 1:02 AM GMT on June 09, 2008

An excerpt from the following
2.5 Upper Tropospheric Cyclonic Vortices


Very nice post StormW, thank you! Great to see such an educational post on the blog.

As a side note, in the Atlantic there is "the TUTT", which is the mean trough, but also I have often seen TPC and NWS meteorologists refer to "a TUTT", being a specific feature in time of the mean TUTT.

If a meteorologist refers to an upper-level low (ULL) as a TUTT, I infer that the ULL originated in the area of the TUTT and not as a ULL cut-off from the jetstream, which would give it different characteristics.
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1495. Patrap
8:05 AM CDT on June 09, 2008
Technical Attachment

AN OVERVIEW OF NHC PREDICTION MODELS

Bernard N. Meisner
Scientific Services Division
National Weather Service Southern Region 2006 Link
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1494. MasterForecaster
12:50 PM GMT on June 09, 2008
Morning everyone,

Anyone in south florida should keep this open and refreshed every 30 minutes...

Link

Some of us could be getting some rain maybe even thunderstorms later.

Have a great day all.

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1493. TheWeatherMan504
12:59 PM GMT on June 09, 2008
By the time August comes around, people will be saying every storm is headed to New Orleans/Miami/New York.

You forgot Philidaphia which Accuweather hopes gets a direct hit. lol
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1492. weathermanwannabe
8:58 AM EDT on June 09, 2008
1487. HIEXPRESS 8:56 AM EDT on June 09, 2008
1474. weathermanwannabe 8:21 AM EDT
"verbose wag"


Lol....That outlook was a bit painful to read through.....Just get to the point right?....
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1491. TheWeatherMan504
12:56 PM GMT on June 09, 2008
By the time August comes around, people will be saying every storm is headed to New Orleans/Miami/New York.

hahaha your right those Damm wishcasters its kind of sad that they want the death, destruction and the 6 dollar gas.
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1490. TampaSpin
8:56 AM EDT on June 09, 2008
After the heating of the day over florida, that ULL should help alot of storms pop.
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1489. TampaSpin
8:54 AM EDT on June 09, 2008
1485. WPBHurricane05 8:54 AM EDT on June 09, 2008
its kind of sad isnt it WPB?

By the time August comes around, people will be saying every storm is headed to New Orleans/Miami/New York.


you forgot Orlando......lol
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1488. displacedFloridian
12:54 PM GMT on June 09, 2008
I kinda assumed the "bust" comment was tongue-in-cheek. I'm surprised it's gotten this much attention.
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1487. HIEXPRESS
8:50 AM EDT on June 09, 2008
1474. weathermanwannabe 8:21 AM EDT
"verbose wag"

If they keep predicting that week after week, eventually it will happen.
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1486. weathermanwannabe
8:53 AM EDT on June 09, 2008
1481. WPBHurricane05 8:50 AM EDT on June 09, 2008 Here we go again with this season is a bust talk. It happened last year, and its happening again this year....

I hear ya.....It will be a bust when a serious cat 3 or 4 "busts" through the SE Conus later this season..................

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1485. WPBHurricane05
8:52 AM EDT on June 09, 2008
its kind of sad isnt it WPB?

By the time August comes around, people will be saying every storm is headed to New Orleans/Miami/New York.
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1484. Patrap
7:52 AM CDT on June 09, 2008
GOM IR Loop..Link
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1482. Patrap
7:51 AM CDT on June 09, 2008
GOES-12 WV Loop Tropical Basin Link
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1481. WPBHurricane05
8:48 AM EDT on June 09, 2008
Here we go again with this season is a bust talk. It happened last year, and its happening again this year....
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1480. ShenValleyFlyFish
8:36 AM EDT on June 09, 2008
1475. TampaSpin 8:27 AM EDT

Satire is a subtile art under-appreciated by most. If you don't take my word for it ask Jonathan Swift.
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1479. TheWeatherMan504
12:39 PM GMT on June 09, 2008
JP Read 1468 it almost agrees what you said.
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1477. TheWeatherMan504
12:32 PM GMT on June 09, 2008
that realy was a rediculous thing to say ITS JUNE!!!!!!!!!!!

However if it was August/September and it was quiet like this then it would be confident to say the season would be Below Average but IT IS SUPPOSED TO BE QUIET RIGHT NOW BECAUSE IT IS JUNE SO DONT SAY THAT AGAIN!

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1475. TampaSpin
8:22 AM EDT on June 09, 2008
1464. TayTay 7:54 AM EDT on June 09, 2008
So the 2008 Hurricane season is a bust then ?

Yes, yes it is.


Not wise thinking. Hope you are not an investor........wow.....LMAO
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1474. weathermanwannabe
8:13 AM EDT on June 09, 2008
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
314 AM EDT MON JUN 9 2008

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY) MODELS ARE STILL FORECASTING THE DEMISE OF THE HOT SOUTHEAST U.S. RIDGE. A FAIRLY COMPLEX REALIGNMENT OF THE BASIC FLOW PATTERN ACROSS THE CONTINENTAL U.S. WILL END UP CREATING A WEAK LONG WAVE PATTERN OVER THE EASTERN UNITED STATES. THIS TRANSITION BEGINS WITH A SERIES OF GULF OF ALASKA SHORTWAVES THAT DIVE SOUTHEAST INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. THESE SHORT WAVES START A REPLACEMENT CYCLE FOR
THE EXISTING WESTERN U.S TROF WHICH EJECTS NORTHEASTWARD INTO THE WESTERN ATLANTIC AT THE START OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD. THE REMNANTS OF A COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE WESTERN ATLANTIC TROUGH...DIVES INTO THE SOUTHEAST U.S. ON THURSDAY HELPING TO BEGIN BREAKING DOWN THE PERSISTENT RIDGE THERE. MEANWHILE...BACK TO THE WESTERN U.S.... A NEW STRONGER INTER-MOUNTAIN TROF DEVELOPS
AT THE START OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD IN RESPONSE TO ANOTHER GULF OF ALASKA DISTURBANCE. THIS UPPER LEVEL TROUGH ITSELF WILL ALSO BE EJECTED EASTWARD INTO THE NORTHEAST U.S. BY SATURDAY. THE ARRIVAL
OF THIS TROUGH ALONG THE EAST COAST FURTHER BATTERS THE STRONG HOT SOUTHEAST U.S. RIDGE WHICH BEGINS TO REFORM WESTWARD INTO NORTHERN
MEXICO. YET ANOTHER GULF OF ALASKA DISTURBANCE DIGS AN EVEN DEEPER LONG WAVE TROUGH ALONG THE WEST COAST OF THE U.S. ON MONDAY. ADDITIONAL UPSTREAM DISTURBANCES FROM THE GULF OF ALASKA GIVE THE APPEARANCE THAT IN THE LONG RUN...A LONG WAVE WILL ANCHOR ITSELF OFF THE CALIFORNIA COASTLINE. THE NET RESULT WILL BE A DEEP LONG WAVE OFF THE WEST COAST...HOT RIDGE PATTERN OVER MEXICO AND TEXAS AND A WEAKER LONG WAVE ALONG THE EAST COAST OF THE U.S AFTER THE END OF THE PERIOD.
THE IMPACT OF ALL OF THIS IN THE SOUTHEAST WILL BE INCREASED FLOW FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO AND INCREASED MOISTURE THAT WILL GENERATE ACTIVE SEA BREEZE RAINFALL THROUGH MOST OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD.

I think the "translation" is that we (in the SE) are going to transition to the typical Summer weather pattern, with the southernly Gulf moisture providing fuel for some rain to cool things off in the afternoons..........Good Deal
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1473. TheWeatherMan504
12:13 PM GMT on June 09, 2008
.
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1472. moonlightcowboy
7:16 AM CDT on June 09, 2008
Rainfall forecast for the next 24 hours a bit further north. One of WU's bloggers, Condesa, who lives west of Veracruz has been getting pummeled for days now.

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1471. moonlightcowboy
7:13 AM CDT on June 09, 2008
Rainfall accumulation for the past two weeks.



Rainfall forecast for the next 24 hours.


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1470. weathermanwannabe
8:02 AM EDT on June 09, 2008
Good Morning All..........

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 AM EDT MON JUN 9 2008

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.


Will be watching for frontal and trof remnants closer to CONUS over the next few weeks, unless, something spins ups from the Caribbean.......But for now, enjoy the calm weather in the tropics, and pray for some "pop-up" showers and rains around the Gulf and SE, as SSTs continue to heat up over the next two months......
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1469. extreme236
12:05 PM GMT on June 09, 2008
Yes 2008 is a bust and so will 2009 2010 2011

I will go insane with people saying a season could be a bust in the first 2 weeks of the season lol
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1468. TheWeatherMan504
11:58 AM GMT on June 09, 2008
1457. MahFL 11:24 AM GMT on June 09, 2008
So the 2008 Hurricane season is a bust then?


No, June is not suposed to be active, even 2005 only had 2 named storms, 1933 had 1, and the active 2004 had none in june.So do not expect much to happen until at least mid-july,yhen things should heat up.
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1467. moonlightcowboy
6:55 AM CDT on June 09, 2008


ZCZC MIATWOEP ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
500 AM PDT MON JUN 9 2008

FOR THE EASTERN NORTH PACIFIC...EAST OF 140 DEGREES WEST LONGITUDE..

1. A LARGE AREA OF DISTURBED WEATHER ASSOCIATED WITH A BROAD AREA OF
LOW PRESSURE IS CENTERED CLOSE TO THE PACIFIC COAST OF MEXICO NEAR
ACAPULCO. THERE HAS BEEN AN APPARENT INCREASE IN THE ORGANIZATION
OF THE SYSTEM OVERNIGHT...AND ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT IS POSSIBLE IF
THE LOW REMAINS OVER WATER. REGARDLESS OF DEVELOPMENT...LOCALLY
HEAVY RAINFALL IS POSSIBLE ALONG THE COAST OF MEXICO FROM PUERTO
ANGEL WESTWARD TO NEAR MANZANILLO DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO.
THESE RAINS COULD PRODUCE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD
SLIDES.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER KNABB/BLAKE
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1466. sporteguy03
11:51 AM GMT on June 09, 2008
1457. MahFL 11:24 AM GMT on June 09, 2008
So the 2008 Hurricane season is a bust then ?

Mah, that is a bit premature to think, lets hold that thought until August and September, it is only June the Tropics have yet to heat up.
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1465. earthlydragonfly
7:54 AM EDT on June 09, 2008
LOL TayTay
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1464. TayTay
11:52 AM GMT on June 09, 2008
So the 2008 Hurricane season is a bust then ?

Yes, yes it is.
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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.