Above average hurricane season expected by Dr. Bill Gray's team

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 6:23 PM GMT on June 03, 2008

Share this Blog
3
+

An above average Atlantic hurricane season is on tap for 2008, according to today's seasonal forecast issued by Dr. Bill Gray and Phil Klotzbach of Colorado State University (CSU). The Gray/Klotzbach team is calling for 15 named storms, 8 hurricanes, 4 intense hurricanes, and an Accumulated Cyclone Energy (ACE) index 150% of normal--unchanged from their April forecast. These numbers are also the what the Atlantic has averaged since we entered a period of above-average hurricane activity in 1995. An average season has 10-11 named storms, 6 hurricanes, and 2 intense hurricanes. The Klotzbach/Gray forecast calls for an above normal chance of a major hurricane hitting the U.S., both along the East Coast (45% chance, 31% chance is normal) and the Gulf Coast (44% chance, 30% chance is average). The Caribbean is also forecast to have an above average risk of a major hurricane.

The forecasters cite the continuation of the above-normal hurricane activity period that began in 1995, the expected lack of an El NiƱo event, the continuation of above average sea surface temperatures and below average pressure in the eastern Atlantic, and slower trade winds (which result in reduced evaporative cooling of the ocean), as the justification for their forecast of an above average hurricane season. It's of interest to look at the activity maps for the four analogue years that had similar atmospheric and oceanic conditions in May: 1951, 1961, 2000, and 2001. The 1961 season was the nastiest of these four seasons, with two Category 5 hurricanes. One of those storms, the notorious Hurricane Carla, hit Texas as a mighty Category 4 hurricane with a 22-foot storm surge. The other three seasons had no hurricanes that hit the U.S.


Figure 1. Sea Surface Temperature departure from average from May 29, 2008. Caribbean SSTs are near average, but are much above average in the Eastern Atlantic. Image credit: NOAA.

How good are the CSU forecasts?
The CSU forecast team has been making seasonal hurricane forecasts since 1984. Based on predictions of a below average, average, or above average season, they have done pretty well over the past nine seasons. Eight of the past nine forecasts have been correct. Their only failure occurred in 2006, when they called for a very active season, and it was a normal year with 10 named storms, 5 hurricanes, and 2 intense hurricanes. A more rigorous way of determining forecast skill is to compute the mathematical correlation coefficient. A correlation coefficient of 1.0 is a perfect forecast, and 0.0 is a no-skill forecast. The late May CSU forecasts have a respectable correlation coefficient of 0.57 for predicting the number of named storms (1984-2006). This decreases a bit to 0.46 and 0.42 for number of hurricanes and intense hurricanes, respectively. These are respectable correlation coefficients, and the late May/early June CSU forecasts are worth paying attention to. This is in contrast to the December and April CSU forecasts, which have had a correlation coefficient near zero (and thus no skill).

Other forecasts
The British private forecasting firm Tropical Storm Risk, Inc. (TSR), issues monthly 2008 Atlantic hurricane season forecasts. Their June 2 forecast calls for a 53% chance of an above average season. This compares to the 65% chance of an above average season given by NOAA in their May 22 forecast.

Last blog entry for a week
This will be my final blog entry until June 11. With the tropics looking quiet for the next week, it's a good time to do some hiking in SW Montana. In my absence, I've arranged for a few "canned" blogs of mine to be posted. If there's anything stirring in the tropics, I've arranged for a guest blogger, Bryan Woods, to jump in. Bryan has done a great job over the past three years blogging on the tropics over at thestormtrack.com. Here's Bryan's bio:

Bryan received his BS in Meteorology from the University of Massachusetts in Lowell, MA in 2005, and his M.Phil. in Geology & Geophysics from Yale University in New Haven, CT in 2007. Bryan is currently a Ph.D. candidate at Yale where he is also the graduate and professional student body president.

Bryan has spent two summers working on a National Science Foundation (NSF) sponsored field micrometeorological research project in Atlanta, GA, studying evapotranspiration rates in urban forest canopies. Currently, Bryan's research is focused on combining wavelet techniques and aircraft data from the NSF/NCAR Gulfstream V to diagnose energy and momentum fluxes from atmospheric gravity waves. Bryan has spent the past three hurricane seasons writing blogs on the tropics for thestormtrack.com.

Jeff Masters

Reader Comments

Comments will take a few seconds to appear.

Post Your Comments

Please sign in to post comments.

or Join

Not only will you be able to leave comments on this blog, but you'll also have the ability to upload and share your photos in our Wunder Photos section.

Display: 0, 50, 100, 200 Sort: Newest First - Order Posted

Viewing: 1303 - 1253

Page: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 | 21 | 22 | 23 | 24 | 25 | 26 | 27Blog Index

1303. Randyman
5:40 PM GMT on June 05, 2008
The SPC has just updated their Severe Weather Public Outlook for June 5th...Link
Member Since: July 26, 2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 222
1302. Randyman
5:35 PM GMT on June 05, 2008
First tornado warnings of the afternoon have been issued for extreme Southeastern Colorado...Link
Member Since: July 26, 2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 222
1301. Randyman
5:26 PM GMT on June 05, 2008
First storms beginning to fire in Southwest/South Central Kansas now...Link
Member Since: July 26, 2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 222
1300. Randyman
5:05 PM GMT on June 05, 2008
SPC released New Day 1 Outlook...increased chances for tornadoes for Southeast Nebraska to 30%... Link
Member Since: July 26, 2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 222
1299. Randyman
5:01 PM GMT on June 05, 2008
Another PDS Tornado Watch issued for Central Kansas & Northwest Oklahoma...Link

URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
TORNADO WATCH NUMBER 462
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1150 AM CDT THU JUN 5 2008

THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A
TORNADO WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF

CENTRAL KANSAS
NORTHWEST OKLAHOMA

EFFECTIVE THIS THURSDAY MORNING AND EVENING FROM 1150 AM UNTIL
800 PM CDT.

...THIS IS A PARTICULARLY DANGEROUS SITUATION...

DESTRUCTIVE TORNADOES...LARGE HAIL TO 3 INCHES IN DIAMETER...
THUNDERSTORM WIND GUSTS TO 80 MPH...AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING ARE
POSSIBLE IN THESE AREAS.

THE TORNADO WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 60 STATUTE
MILES EAST AND WEST OF A LINE FROM 30 MILES NORTH OF CONCORDIA
KANSAS TO 70 MILES SOUTHWEST OF ENID OKLAHOMA. FOR A COMPLETE
DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE ASSOCIATED WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE
(WOUS64 KWNS WOU2).

REMEMBER...A TORNADO WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR
TORNADOES AND SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH
AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR
THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS
AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS.

OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 459...WW 460...WW 461...

DISCUSSION...THUNDERSTORMS WILL RAPIDLY DEVELOP ALONG SURFACE COLD
FRONT/DRYLINE OVER CENTRAL KS AND NORTHWEST OK DURING THE NEXT FEW
HOURS. THESE STORMS WILL INTERACT WITH EXTREME INSTABILITY AND VERY
FAVORABLE LOW LEVEL AND DEEP LAYER VERTICAL SHEAR PROFILES FOR
SUPERCELLS AND TORNADOES. IF STORMS CAN MAINTAIN MORE DISCRETE
STRUCTURES THROUGH THE AFTERNOON...STRONG AND LONG-TRACK TORNADOES
WILL BE POSSIBLE. OTHERWISE...WIDESPREAD DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE
HAIL ARE EXPECTED.

AVIATION...TORNADOES AND A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL
SURFACE AND ALOFT TO 3 INCHES. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE
WIND GUSTS TO 70 KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO
500. MEAN STORM MOTION VECTOR 24040.


(Here's the first one...Link)

URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
TORNADO WATCH NUMBER 461
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1055 AM CDT THU JUN 5 2008

THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A
TORNADO WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF

WESTERN IOWA
NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS
CENTRAL AND EASTERN NEBRASKA
EXTREME SOUTHEAST SOUTH DAKOTA

EFFECTIVE THIS THURSDAY MORNING AND EVENING FROM 1055 AM UNTIL
700 PM CDT.

...THIS IS A PARTICULARLY DANGEROUS SITUATION...

DESTRUCTIVE TORNADOES...LARGE HAIL TO 3 INCHES IN DIAMETER...
THUNDERSTORM WIND GUSTS TO 80 MPH...AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING ARE
POSSIBLE IN THESE AREAS.

THE TORNADO WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 115 STATUTE
MILES NORTH AND SOUTH OF A LINE FROM 20 MILES SOUTH SOUTHWEST OF
BROKEN BOW NEBRASKA TO 25 MILES EAST SOUTHEAST OF DENISON IOWA.
FOR A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE ASSOCIATED WATCH
OUTLINE UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU1).

REMEMBER...A TORNADO WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR
TORNADOES AND SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH
AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR
THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS
AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS.

OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 458...WW 459...WW 460...

DISCUSSION...SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED
TO DEVELOP THROUGH THE EARLY-MID AFTERNOON HOURS ACROSS PORTIONS OF
EASTERN NEB...SPREADING INTO WESTERN IA AND SOUTHEAST SD. STRONG
LOW LEVEL VERTICAL SHEAR PROFILES...AMPLE MOISTURE/INSTABILITY...AND
PRESENCE OF MULTIPLE SURFACE BOUNDARIES WILL POSE A RISK OF
SUPERCELLS CAPABLE OF STRONG TORNADOES. VERY LARGE HAIL AND
DAMAGING WINDS WILL ALSO BE A CONCERN.

AVIATION...TORNADOES AND A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL
SURFACE AND ALOFT TO 3 INCHES. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE
WIND GUSTS TO 70 KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO
500. MEAN STORM MOTION VECTOR 24040.
Member Since: July 26, 2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 222
1298. 69Viking
4:40 PM GMT on June 05, 2008
1283. WPBHurricane05

I missed the link for the software, which post was it please if you don't mind?
Member Since: August 25, 2006 Posts: 1 Comments: 3055
1297. earthlydragonfly
4:37 PM GMT on June 05, 2008
Hey Fire..... That is one intense program!!! WOW.. Killer Thank you very much for the Link!!!!!!!!
Member Since: July 1, 2005 Posts: 10 Comments: 1683
1296. condesa
4:31 PM GMT on June 05, 2008
Can anybody tell me more about the new invest in EPAC that DUSHAWN referenced?
Gracias.
1295. condesa
4:21 PM GMT on June 05, 2008
The T shirt counts a lot.
Old hippies are natural ponderers-
I'm goin' for some Hendrix right now.
1294. WPBHurricane05
4:16 PM GMT on June 05, 2008
New blog about the Jet Stream being further north. Yikes!
Member Since: July 31, 2006 Posts: 56 Comments: 8112
1293. StormJunkie
4:16 PM GMT on June 05, 2008
Morning all :~)

I see all is very quite in the Atl. Models seem to be quite as well.

cchs, make sure you look in to the legalities of that. Some user agreements prevent redistribution of any images created with their software. Example being HurrTrak. I looked at trying to do some similar stuff with this software, but after reading the user agreement, they make it clear that you may not redistribute any images created with this software. Not to mention financing a project like that would have been tough for me, to say the least!
Member Since: August 17, 2005 Posts: 26 Comments: 16874
1292. Floodman
4:15 PM GMT on June 05, 2008
1290. condesa

I'm old, but I was 8 in 1968...I'd have loved to have been there, though. I have the t-shirt, does that count? LOL

Have you noticed the number of Deadheads in here? Seems old hippies are drawn to weather...
Member Since: August 2, 2006 Posts: 10 Comments: 9922
1291. cchsweatherman
4:10 PM GMT on June 05, 2008
Thanks fire. Terrific find. Now I can use this software to create tracks for my webiste.
Member Since: April 14, 2007 Posts: 8 Comments: 5169
1290. condesa
4:10 PM GMT on June 05, 2008
Floodman-
Were you at Winterland New Year's '68?
1289. fire831rescue
4:01 PM GMT on June 05, 2008
Ya'll are all welcome for the link. What appears to have happened is they are doing some sort of BETA test on the software this year and will charge for next year's version. Can't beat it for a free piece of software, though.
Member Since: August 18, 2007 Posts: 5 Comments: 1807
1288. Floodman
3:59 PM GMT on June 05, 2008
Great link, fire! Thanks!
Member Since: August 2, 2006 Posts: 10 Comments: 9922
1287. fire831rescue
3:58 PM GMT on June 05, 2008
One thing is it appears some of the updates are missing. You just have to refuse the missing ones to cotinue with the other updates. And be warned the updates are quite large and total update time may be about 10-15 minutes due to size. Other than that, it appears to be a decent setup.
Member Since: August 18, 2007 Posts: 5 Comments: 1807
1286. Floodman
3:57 PM GMT on June 05, 2008
1281. guygee

Right on the dunes? Have you thought about having a house guest? I can cook!
Member Since: August 2, 2006 Posts: 10 Comments: 9922
1285. WPBHurricane05
3:56 PM GMT on June 05, 2008
Thanks fire i was looking at buying this one last year but decided for eots so i will try both this yr.

I use EOTS. It is not a bad program, especially for those who aren't tech savvy. Looks like GT7 has a lot more features than EOTS.
Member Since: July 31, 2006 Posts: 56 Comments: 8112
1284. chessrascal
3:53 PM GMT on June 05, 2008
Thanks fire i was looking at buying this one last year but decided for eots so i will try both this yr.
1283. WPBHurricane05
3:50 PM GMT on June 05, 2008
Found a piece of software for us tropical weather nuts... Best part is it's FREE for the 2008 season. Link for the download site is: Link It includes free updates as well. May be worth checking out. I downloaded it and I'm going to try it to see what features it has.

Looks pretty cool. Lets hope we won't have to use it to much this season.
Member Since: July 31, 2006 Posts: 56 Comments: 8112
1282. fire831rescue
3:41 PM GMT on June 05, 2008
Found a piece of software for us tropical weather nuts... Best part is it's FREE for the 2008 season. Link for the download site is: Link It includes free updates as well. May be worth checking out. I downloaded it and I'm going to try it to see what features it has.
Member Since: August 18, 2007 Posts: 5 Comments: 1807
1281. guygee
3:33 PM GMT on June 05, 2008
1279. Floodman

Fires were all inland around Palm Bay, it was a crazy windy day, over 150+ houses damaged or destroyed.. but there is not much to burn where I live except right on the dunes, and just a little bit there...mostly condos now.

Later!
Member Since: September 16, 2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 3171
1280. guygee
3:30 PM GMT on June 05, 2008
Good talking to you again Floodman. I'm sure I'll see you around. Need to make a store run up the block (store is on A1A), then get a few chores done. Thanks for the Vault link, I'll leave you with a couple of my favorites.
bt.etree.org
Trader's Den
dimeadozen
BBL
Member Since: September 16, 2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 3171
1279. Floodman
3:23 PM GMT on June 05, 2008
1275. guygee

That's right! One of my fovorite places on the planet...I used to vacation in Melbourne Beach occasionally. Did you have any problems with the fires?
Member Since: August 2, 2006 Posts: 10 Comments: 9922
1278. GBlet
3:22 PM GMT on June 05, 2008
Good morning everyone, especially grey and doc. I am in great bend just waiting to see where it pops first! I really don't like sitting in the middle of the bullseye. Nobody likes supercells at nite that's for sure. I'm even more worried about next week while I'm in Vegas. Hope my house will still be here when I get back.
Member Since: September 13, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 435
1277. sky1989
3:22 PM GMT on June 05, 2008
I've been watching and I have to agree with you chess. It seems as the wave moves west it is not leaving the environment behind it much more moist. But, once the wave reaches the Western Carribbean, if it survives, I wonder if the environment there would become more favorable to allow development?
Member Since: June 4, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 88
1276. Floodman
3:21 PM GMT on June 05, 2008
1273. sky1989

No worries, sky! As I am wont to remind folks, though, I am but an egg...if you read chess' response, he makes a very good point aas well; the waves tend to pick up their moisture from the ITCZ; low activity in the ITCZ will not help a wave out much. Another thing to think about is the MJO, which is supposed to be waning a bit over the next couple of weeks
Member Since: August 2, 2006 Posts: 10 Comments: 9922
1275. guygee
3:18 PM GMT on June 05, 2008
1272. Floodman 3:14 PM GMT on June 05, 2008

ECFL, Barrier Island just south of Cocoa Beach FL.
Member Since: September 16, 2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 3171
1274. chessrascal
3:16 PM GMT on June 05, 2008
Sky

Tropical waves generally move on taking the moisture with them, so I rather doubt that it has any affect on the following waves. Most of the moisture for the tropical waves come from the ITCZ
1273. sky1989
3:14 PM GMT on June 05, 2008
Thanks very much Floodman! I appreciate any input.
Member Since: June 4, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 88
1272. Floodman
3:14 PM GMT on June 05, 2008
Refersh my memory, Guygee...where are you located?
Member Since: August 2, 2006 Posts: 10 Comments: 9922
1271. Floodman
3:13 PM GMT on June 05, 2008
1269. guygee

We finally moved out of Hurricane alley (moved from Mandeville LA to Fort Worth TX); not too bad on the battening down activities here...our problem is the occasional tornado LOL
Member Since: August 2, 2006 Posts: 10 Comments: 9922
1270. Floodman
3:11 PM GMT on June 05, 2008
Welcome, sky1989!

Anything that pulls moisture in around itself will help ease passage of the following disturbances; as for it being early, don't be surprised at a number of TS before the headlining acts appear...we've had Arthur, don;t be surprised at Bertha and Cristobal or so before the big storms start to pop
Member Since: August 2, 2006 Posts: 10 Comments: 9922
1269. guygee
3:10 PM GMT on June 05, 2008
Floodman - Got some work to do on my eaves, need to get going on that, a couple of rotted spots need torn out and replaced. A 2-3 day job, but I need to stop procrastinating.

Otherwise, the hatches are ready for battening.
Member Since: September 16, 2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 3171
1268. Floodman
3:08 PM GMT on June 05, 2008
1263. guygee

I'll have to listen to it again; I have all the bootlegs...if memory serves, I think that version is one of my faves...by the way, have you been to Wolfgangs Vault?

The archived concerts are incredible; they have a little of everything, including the Dead, New Years Eve '68 at Winterland

Member Since: August 2, 2006 Posts: 10 Comments: 9922
1267. sky1989
3:08 PM GMT on June 05, 2008
I'm new here. I was just wondering though, that even though it is only June, is it possible that the tropical wave at around 45W could be moistening the environment to make it more favorable for the following tropical waves to develop?
Member Since: June 4, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 88
1266. Floodman
3:05 PM GMT on June 05, 2008
Guygee

Oh, I've been here and there, up and down, and occasionally sideways...great to see you! How have you been? Ready for tropical activity?
Member Since: August 2, 2006 Posts: 10 Comments: 9922
1265. guygee
3:03 PM GMT on June 05, 2008
Apologies for the attempt at non-weather chat. Didn't mean to put anyone on the spot. IMHO, I love the gd73-05-26, one of my favorites but not everyone's.

Jerry would have never pulled that 2005 Thanksgiving Internet Archives rip on the fans in a million years...Phil was against it too.

Weather mode back ON.
Member Since: September 16, 2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 3171
1264. TheWeatherMan504
2:50 PM GMT on June 05, 2008
Member Since: May 18, 2008 Posts: 2 Comments: 1042
1263. guygee
2:47 PM GMT on June 05, 2008
Floodman, a couple of "non-weather" related questions to satisfy my curiosity. Your opinion:

Grateful Dead May 26 1973 Kezar Stadium...Greatest ever? Top Ten? ...or overrrated? Also, how about the Eyes->China Doll from that concert?

Bobby Post 2005 Thanksgiving Day massacre-Still friends? LOL!
Member Since: September 16, 2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 3171
1262. TheWeatherMan504
2:45 PM GMT on June 05, 2008
Member Since: May 18, 2008 Posts: 2 Comments: 1042
1261. chessrascal
2:43 PM GMT on June 05, 2008
000
ABNT20 KNHC 051125
TWOAT
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 AM EDT THU JUN 5 2008

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS TEMPORARILY POSTPONED UNTIL DR. MASTERS RETURNS.

$$
FORECASTER MAINELLI
1260. guygee
2:40 PM GMT on June 05, 2008
Hey Floodman! I was going back through some old posts from last year, and wondering where ya' been. Good to see you!
Member Since: September 16, 2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 3171
1259. Floodman
2:35 PM GMT on June 05, 2008
Morning folks! Guygee, if you're still in here, great to see you again! Doc, grayelf, I feel for you guys in the midwest; I grew up in Missouri, so you know I feel your pain...I'm in Fort Worth now, so we get a fair bit of the nasties here too. Keep eyes open, guys!
Member Since: August 2, 2006 Posts: 10 Comments: 9922
1258. Greyelf
2:29 PM GMT on June 05, 2008
Whew. It was a wild one here last night. I live in the Omaha, Nebraska area. I see from posts from last night that you guys noticed we had a bit of severe weather here. I was definitely scared when I saw the wind velocities graphic on our local station showing a large red circle surrounded by green like a donut just to the west of where I live and it was supposed to be moving east. When I went outside and looked up, scud clouds were moving northwest, middle clouds were moving northeast, and the highest clouds were moving east. "Eek" was the feeling to say the least. Then I go back to see news reports of baseball and golfball sized hail. Some of you may recall back in February, I picked up a pretty convertible in Ohio that I had purchased on Ebay. So, now I'm worried about my pretty convertible as I don't have a garage. Lightning was pretty much non-stop. Then the sun went down and I couldn't watch clouds anymore except through lightning flashes. Triple scared now. Fortunately, the storm bowed out and we only ended up with about 40-50 mph winds and pea-sized hail for a short time. We really dodged it. The hail split around here - one part went about 10 miles north and the other went 10 miles south. Whew!

Will have to worry about today again though. In the "high risk" category again today. I hope I don't have another night like last night.
Member Since: June 5, 2007 Posts: 18 Comments: 838
1257. DocBen
2:23 PM GMT on June 05, 2008
1250. NEwxguy 1:40 PM GMT on June 05, 2008
In reference to the midwest,

Yea; we are being advised to keep close to radios. It was muggy and windy when I picked the paper this morning - before sunrise. I'm guessing that we won't get it here in Wichita until fairly late tonight - maybe after midnight - when the dry line gets here. Sometimes those are even worse since we can't see them in the dark.

Kansas - where Twister isn't just a party game
Member Since: May 16, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 98
1256. guygee
2:23 PM GMT on June 05, 2008
Actually the small GOM trough and the WATL trough seem to be somewhat separate systems.
Member Since: September 16, 2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 3171
1255. CJ5
2:22 PM GMT on June 05, 2008
The wave at 45/10 continues to poke along. It appears shear may dismantle it but it came back last night and built more convection. It has continued to battle through the dry air too. It is something to keep watching.
Member Since: July 4, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 1755
1254. guygee
2:06 PM GMT on June 05, 2008
1243. DocBen 1:16 PM GMT on June 05, 2008
What's that thing just north of Dominican Republic?

SSD Tropical Atlantic - Water Vapor Loop

Looks like a ULL dropping south at the head of a TUTT extending back into the GOM undercutting the mid/upper SE-CONUS high, and also reflecting down to the surface according to the NWS TPC. It is combining with an ULH directly to its east to create upper level diffluence w/ associated showers and tstorms.

Also, the wave to the west of the CATL wave has not really slowed, it is just getting sheared under upper westerlies, and is extrapolated west.

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 AM EDT THU JUN 05 2008
[...]
TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 45W/46W S OF 18N IS MOVING W 15 KT. WAVE PRESENTATION ON MIMIC-TPW IS VERY GOOD WITH A FAIR AMOUNT OF CYCLONIC TURNING CENTERED ALONG THE AXIS NEAR 10N. NO ASSOCIATED DEEP CONVECTION WITH ONLY ISOLATED SHOWERS FROM 9N-12N BETWEEN 43W-46W.

TROPICAL WAVE IS IN THE E CARIBBEAN ALONG 70W S OF 16N MOVING W 10-15 KT. LOW-LEVEL CURVATURE BEING MASKED BY UPPER LEVEL CLOUDINESS SO WAVE HAS BEEN LARGELY EXTRAPOLATED WESTWARD. WAVE IS EMBEDDED WITHIN AN AREA OF SOMEWHAT DRY UPPER AIR ACROSS THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN SEA WITH ONLY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION INLAND ACROSS SW VENEZUELA AND SIMILAR CONVECTION ACROSS W VENEZUELA AND N COLOMBIA.
[...]
GULF OF MEXICO...
BROAD UPPER RIDGE ANCHORED WELL INTO THE E PACIFIC REGION EXTENDS ACROSS NORTHERN MEXICO AND S TEXAS ALONG THE N GULF COAST TO THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE. A SMALL UPPER TROUGH IS UNDERCUTTING THE BROAD UPPER RIDGE EXTENDING FROM NEAR THE FLORIDA KEYS TO NEAR 22N94W.
[...]
ATLANTIC...
AN UPPER TROUGH COVERS THE W ATLC EXTENDING E OF BERMUDA SW ACROSS THE TURKS AND CAICOS INTO THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN. A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS ALONG THE E SIDE OF THE UPPER RIDGE FROM 25N71W ACROSS THE SE BAHAMAS INTO THE CARIBBEAN ACROSS THE EASTERN TIP OF CUBA. AN UPPER RIDGE EXTENDS FROM THE TROPICAL ATLC JUST E OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS NEAR 17N57W TO BEYOND 32N52W. THIS UPPER RIDGE IS PROVIDING UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS S OF 27N TO OVER THE GREATER ANTILLES BETWEEN 64W-74W. A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH IS ALSO AIDING IN SUPPORTING THIS ACTIVITY AND EXTENDS FROM 27N61W 22N64W.
Member Since: September 16, 2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 3171
1253. TheWeatherMan504
1:52 PM GMT on June 05, 2008
1251. fmbill 1:43 PM GMT on June 05, 2008
TheWeatherMan504...just goes to show that hurricanes don't just bring storng winds, they also bring out the idiots!!!

"I'm standing in 100mph winds to prove to everyone I'm an idiot."

That is no help to emergency managers at all.


some of them are like mike sidel but its fun to go out in the hurricanes and doing coverage.
Member Since: May 18, 2008 Posts: 2 Comments: 1042

Viewing: 1303 - 1253

Page: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 | 21 | 22 | 23 | 24 | 25 | 26 | 27Blog Index

Top of Page

About

Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.