The hurricane season of 2008 rings in with gender-confused Arthur
Buckle your seat belts, hurricane season is here! If the formation of Arthur on the day before hurricane season officially starts is any indication, we are in for a strange and unusual season. Alma, the Eastern Pacific tropical storm that hit Nicaragua Thursday, fell apart over the high mountains of Honduras. The remnants reorganized over the Western Caribbean on Saturday morning and became Arthur. Had Alma maintained her identity as a tropical depression during the crossing, she would have kept her name. As it was, Alma died, had a posthumous sex change, and became reborn as a man named Arthur. Only two tropical storms since 1949 have made the crossing from Pacific to Atlantic and maintained at least tropical depression status during the crossing:
Northeast Pacific Hurricane Cosme became Atlantic Tropical Storm Allison (June 1989).
A Northeast Pacific tropical storm (September-October 1949) became Atlantic Hurricane Storm #10 and made landfall in Texas.
Seven tropical cyclones have survived the crossing from Atlantic to Pacific. I'm not sure how many cases have occurred like Alma/Arthur, where the remnants of a tropical storm reform into a new cyclone in different ocean basin.
Did Arthur form over land?
Arthur was also unusual in that the first advisory position for the storm was inland over northern Belize, about 30 miles from the ocean. Technically, the storm probably formed while the center was just offshore or right at the coast, but NHC did not name it until the center was already inland. There is one other case of NHC issuing its first advisory on a system while it was over land--Hurricane Agnes, which became a tropical depression on June 14, 1972, while centered over the Yucatan Peninsula. Since the Yucatan is a relatively narrow strip of land with very warm ocean waters on three sides, one can form a tropical depression centered over land here in rare cases, when the large-scale atmospheric patterns are very favorable for tropical storm formation.
Figure 1. Track of Hurricane Agnes of 1972, which formed over the Yucatan Peninsula.
The future of Arthur
The primary threat from Arthur is rain. Heavy rains of up to five inches have fallen over portions of Belize and Southeast Mexico over the past 24 hours, and rainfall amounts of up to ten inches may accumulate in some regions. None of the models are bringing the center of Arthur over the Gulf of Mexico, so the storm should decay into a tropical depression later today, and then dissipate by Monday. What would really make for an odd season would be if Arthur died over Mexico, its remains drifted over the Eastern Pacific, then re-formed into Tropical Storm Boris. Some of the computer models were suggesting this yesterday, but are no longer doing so today.
Would Arthur have been named 30 years ago?
Arthur is one of those weak, short-lived tropical storms that may not have been recognized as a named storm thirty or more years ago. Arthur was named primarily based on measurements from a buoy that didn't exist 30 years ago, and from measurements from the QuikSCAT satellite, which didn't exist until 1999. There was one ship report that was used, though, and ship reports were heavily relied upon in the old days to name tropical storms.
Jeff Masters
Reader Comments
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the wave se of the winwards is sheared and stretched out by 25knots wind shear. looking at the structure now it does not have a chance of development. it will only bring some showers to the islands
Arthur trying to spawn twins?
LOL, LandStorms never spawn twins (can you spawn on land?).
Maybe more like a race, if one develops, the other gets starved of inflow and sheared.
Which models develop the wave? I check most of them and none did. Also look at the wind shear forecast. The wave at 54W should encounter a barrier in the SE Caribbean, afterwhich wind shear is expected slacken in the Central-Western Caribbean.
941. stoormfury 9:09 AM AST on June 02, 2008
The area in the EPAC has the better chance of developing based on QuikSCAT, surface analysis and uppper level winds.
Amazing how the sea breeze can keep the coast 5 - 10 degrees cooler. Of course that doesn't happen in July and August when the water temperature really heats up in the GOM.
Just stopping in for a quick comment. The vis sat loop shows a still vigorous circulation from Arthur just beyond the extreme NW corner of the boundary between Guatemala and Mexico. It appears to be on a heading just N of due West and could conceivably get into the BOC.
I believe that what is keeping this alive is the moisture inflow from the Caribbean to the East and the GOM to the North and NW of the low.
Arthur may not be done yet.
Link
945. cchsweatherman 9:28 AM AST on June 02, 2008
Which models develop the wave? I check most of them and none did. Also look at the wind shear forecast. The wave at 54W should encounter a barrier in the SE Caribbean, afterwhich wind shear is expected slacken in the Central-Western Caribbean.
Oops! My bad. Wrong tropical wave that I mentioned some computer models developing. I'll go back and edit this.
Where I work, Weston, is further west, by the Everglades and they can be 10 degrees hotter than at my house...the seabreeze does help a little.
bbl...
true
oh seen...its the wave near the cape verdes...right?
ZCZC MIATWOAT ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 AM EDT MON JUN 2 2008
FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...
1. THE REMNANTS OF ARTHUR CONTINUE TO PRODUCE HEAVY RAINS OVER PORTIONS
OF BELIZE...GUATEMALA...AND SOUTHEASTERN MEXICO. WHILE
REDEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM IS NOT EXPECTED...ASSOCIATED HEAVY
RAINS COULD CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES...
ESPECIALLY IN MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN...DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS
AS IT MOVES SLOWLY WESTWARD.
ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.
$$
FORECASTER RHOME
965. cchsweatherman 10:04 AM AST on June 02, 2008
oh seen...its the wave near the cape verdes...right?
Correct. Made a mistake when issuing my Tropical Update. Just got the two waves mixed up when analyzing the computer models.
wow almost 91 here already
whew glad im indoors lol
If you don't mind, where do you live? Right now in Cooper City its around 88 and I have some pool work to do soon.
whew glad im indoors lol
Yeah, looks like summertime weather is here. We had a nice afternoon thunderstorm yesterday, though I didn't check the rain gauge to see how much rain we received.
Casselberry, Florida
its just north of Orlando
hey CCHS you think you can point me to where you got that map? I may add it to my blog
The map is on the front page of the NHC site. To insert the image into your blog, just right click on the map, then select Properties. When the window appears, highlight the URL Address and copy it. Now, just insert the image as usual with the URL and it will appear on your blog.
Is that Arthur still causing problems? I thought he wasn't around anymore... that will teach me to think.
I've been watching the remnants of Arthur too and that circulation is really close to the Bay of Campeche.
I just hope everyone is patient during the lull times....I know it can get intense...like waiting to see if u get accepted into ur dream college
Or like waiting for your federal refund check
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