The hurricane season of 2008 rings in with gender-confused Arthur

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 1:35 PM GMT on June 01, 2008

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Buckle your seat belts, hurricane season is here! If the formation of Arthur on the day before hurricane season officially starts is any indication, we are in for a strange and unusual season. Alma, the Eastern Pacific tropical storm that hit Nicaragua Thursday, fell apart over the high mountains of Honduras. The remnants reorganized over the Western Caribbean on Saturday morning and became Arthur. Had Alma maintained her identity as a tropical depression during the crossing, she would have kept her name. As it was, Alma died, had a posthumous sex change, and became reborn as a man named Arthur. Only two tropical storms since 1949 have made the crossing from Pacific to Atlantic and maintained at least tropical depression status during the crossing:

Northeast Pacific Hurricane Cosme became Atlantic Tropical Storm Allison (June 1989).

A Northeast Pacific tropical storm (September-October 1949) became Atlantic Hurricane Storm #10 and made landfall in Texas.

Seven tropical cyclones have survived the crossing from Atlantic to Pacific. I'm not sure how many cases have occurred like Alma/Arthur, where the remnants of a tropical storm reform into a new cyclone in different ocean basin.

Did Arthur form over land?
Arthur was also unusual in that the first advisory position for the storm was inland over northern Belize, about 30 miles from the ocean. Technically, the storm probably formed while the center was just offshore or right at the coast, but NHC did not name it until the center was already inland. There is one other case of NHC issuing its first advisory on a system while it was over land--Hurricane Agnes, which became a tropical depression on June 14, 1972, while centered over the Yucatan Peninsula. Since the Yucatan is a relatively narrow strip of land with very warm ocean waters on three sides, one can form a tropical depression centered over land here in rare cases, when the large-scale atmospheric patterns are very favorable for tropical storm formation.


Figure 1. Track of Hurricane Agnes of 1972, which formed over the Yucatan Peninsula.

The future of Arthur
The primary threat from Arthur is rain. Heavy rains of up to five inches have fallen over portions of Belize and Southeast Mexico over the past 24 hours, and rainfall amounts of up to ten inches may accumulate in some regions. None of the models are bringing the center of Arthur over the Gulf of Mexico, so the storm should decay into a tropical depression later today, and then dissipate by Monday. What would really make for an odd season would be if Arthur died over Mexico, its remains drifted over the Eastern Pacific, then re-formed into Tropical Storm Boris. Some of the computer models were suggesting this yesterday, but are no longer doing so today.

Would Arthur have been named 30 years ago?
Arthur is one of those weak, short-lived tropical storms that may not have been recognized as a named storm thirty or more years ago. Arthur was named primarily based on measurements from a buoy that didn't exist 30 years ago, and from measurements from the QuikSCAT satellite, which didn't exist until 1999. There was one ship report that was used, though, and ship reports were heavily relied upon in the old days to name tropical storms.

Jeff Masters

Retreat (shutterbug1)
End of the storm
Retreat
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992. moonlightcowboy
2:45 PM GMT on June 02, 2008
Member Since: July 9, 2006 Posts: 184 Comments: 29610
991. NEwxguy
2:39 PM GMT on June 02, 2008
988. Weather456 2:35 PM GMT on June 02, 2008
I just hope everyone is patient during the lull times....I know it can get intense...like waiting to see if u get accepted into ur dream college

Or like waiting for your federal refund check
Member Since: September 6, 2007 Posts: 886 Comments: 15942
990. Buhdog
2:38 PM GMT on June 02, 2008
That is right....2004...Charley was on Fri the 13th.....it took a while to get to just the "c" letter. I will never forget...My first full direct hit from hurricane winds!
Member Since: July 30, 2005 Posts: 1 Comments: 960
989. catastropheadjuster
2:36 PM GMT on June 02, 2008
New Blog
Member Since: August 24, 2006 Posts: 21 Comments: 3681
988. Cavin Rawlins
2:35 PM GMT on June 02, 2008
I just hope everyone is patient during the lull times....I know it can get intense...like waiting to see if u get accepted into ur dream college.
Member Since: July 24, 2005 Posts: 407 Comments: 19076
987. Mjolnir
2:34 PM GMT on June 02, 2008
Good morning everyone!

Arthur is no more than a rain event now for Mexico, Belize and Honduras this afternoon. Its not rare but it is interesting how the remnants of Alma last week organized so rapidly to form Arthur. Weather radio discussed today that tropical formation is unlikely for the next two days.

However, is there anything out there that you all are looking at that might raise a little concern? I've yet to get a look at the Atlantic, does anyone feel like giving me the low-down?

P.S. Hey JP, Good morning sir!

986. TheWeatherMan504
2:32 PM GMT on June 02, 2008
Can yall please comment my blog?
Member Since: May 18, 2008 Posts: 2 Comments: 1042
984. Cavin Rawlins
2:30 PM GMT on June 02, 2008
After this MJO pulse ends June 12....the latter part of June should show little acitivty but hold on to ur hats cuz a strong pulse should move through in mid July. That pulse will be much stronger than we had recently. With that, and below normal upper winds and average-above normal SSTs...its most likely we would have atleast Christobal bofore July 31.
Member Since: July 24, 2005 Posts: 407 Comments: 19076
983. 69Viking
2:30 PM GMT on June 02, 2008
964. kmanislander 9:04 AM CDT on June 02, 2008

I've been watching the remnants of Arthur too and that circulation is really close to the Bay of Campeche.
Member Since: August 25, 2006 Posts: 1 Comments: 3074
982. smmcdavid
2:28 PM GMT on June 02, 2008
Well jp, I haven't had much time to get it together yet. I'll work on it. lol
Member Since: September 20, 2005 Posts: 31 Comments: 2309
980. smmcdavid
2:25 PM GMT on June 02, 2008
Good morning...

Is that Arthur still causing problems? I thought he wasn't around anymore... that will teach me to think.
Member Since: September 20, 2005 Posts: 31 Comments: 2309
978. Michfan
2:22 PM GMT on June 02, 2008
<---was born in Winter Park, FL jp. My grandparents still live there to this day. I love the Orlando area. Went to UCF for 2 years as well.
Member Since: September 7, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 1736
977. cchsweatherman
2:17 PM GMT on June 02, 2008
975. jphurricane2006 10:14 AM EDT on June 02, 2008
Casselberry, Florida

its just north of Orlando

hey CCHS you think you can point me to where you got that map? I may add it to my blog


The map is on the front page of the NHC site. To insert the image into your blog, just right click on the map, then select Properties. When the window appears, highlight the URL Address and copy it. Now, just insert the image as usual with the URL and it will appear on your blog.
Member Since: April 14, 2007 Posts: 8 Comments: 5169
976. Tampawxgirl
2:16 PM GMT on June 02, 2008
wow almost 91 here already
whew glad im indoors lol


Yeah, looks like summertime weather is here. We had a nice afternoon thunderstorm yesterday, though I didn't check the rain gauge to see how much rain we received.
Member Since: June 1, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 163
974. JFLORIDA
2:13 PM GMT on June 02, 2008

969. cchs

Yea note its for the "atlantic side" - There a few cyclones in the area, on a few of the models. I think we could get more than another system out of this.
Member Since: May 22, 2006 Posts: 188 Comments: 24743
973. cchsweatherman
2:13 PM GMT on June 02, 2008
970. jphurricane2006 10:10 AM EDT on June 02, 2008
wow almost 91 here already

whew glad im indoors lol


If you don't mind, where do you live? Right now in Cooper City its around 88 and I have some pool work to do soon.
Member Since: April 14, 2007 Posts: 8 Comments: 5169
972. cchsweatherman
2:11 PM GMT on June 02, 2008
968. Weather456 10:09 AM EDT on June 02, 2008
965. cchsweatherman 10:04 AM AST on June 02, 2008

oh seen...its the wave near the cape verdes...right?


Correct. Made a mistake when issuing my Tropical Update. Just got the two waves mixed up when analyzing the computer models.
Member Since: April 14, 2007 Posts: 8 Comments: 5169
971. Michfan
2:10 PM GMT on June 02, 2008
Yeah ran 3 miles this morning at about 6am and it about killed me. Really need some relief from the heat around here in SE Alabama. 3 weeks and no rain. Ugh.
Member Since: September 7, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 1736
969. cchsweatherman
2:10 PM GMT on June 02, 2008


ZCZC MIATWOAT ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 AM EDT MON JUN 2 2008

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

1. THE REMNANTS OF ARTHUR CONTINUE TO PRODUCE HEAVY RAINS OVER PORTIONS
OF BELIZE...GUATEMALA...AND SOUTHEASTERN MEXICO. WHILE
REDEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM IS NOT EXPECTED...ASSOCIATED HEAVY
RAINS COULD CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES...
ESPECIALLY IN MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN...DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS
AS IT MOVES SLOWLY WESTWARD.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER RHOME
Member Since: April 14, 2007 Posts: 8 Comments: 5169
968. Cavin Rawlins
2:09 PM GMT on June 02, 2008
965. cchsweatherman 10:04 AM AST on June 02, 2008

oh seen...its the wave near the cape verdes...right?
Member Since: July 24, 2005 Posts: 407 Comments: 19076
967. Cavin Rawlins
2:07 PM GMT on June 02, 2008
953. stoormfury 9:45 AM AST on June 02, 2008

true
Member Since: July 24, 2005 Posts: 407 Comments: 19076
966. seflagamma
2:04 PM GMT on June 02, 2008
It's already in mid 80's here with higher heat index and I only live 12 miles from the ocean! And I've got to go out and do my walk/run in this heat! Yesterday I waited unil after 11 and thought I was going to have a heat stroke!
Where I work, Weston, is further west, by the Everglades and they can be 10 degrees hotter than at my house...the seabreeze does help a little.
bbl...
Member Since: August 29, 2005 Posts: 299 Comments: 40924
965. cchsweatherman
2:04 PM GMT on June 02, 2008
956. Weather456 9:51 AM EDT on June 02, 2008
945. cchsweatherman 9:28 AM AST on June 02, 2008

Which models develop the wave? I check most of them and none did. Also look at the wind shear forecast. The wave at 54W should encounter a barrier in the SE Caribbean, afterwhich wind shear is expected slacken in the Central-Western Caribbean.


Oops! My bad. Wrong tropical wave that I mentioned some computer models developing. I'll go back and edit this.
Member Since: April 14, 2007 Posts: 8 Comments: 5169
964. kmanislander
2:04 PM GMT on June 02, 2008
Good morning all

Just stopping in for a quick comment. The vis sat loop shows a still vigorous circulation from Arthur just beyond the extreme NW corner of the boundary between Guatemala and Mexico. It appears to be on a heading just N of due West and could conceivably get into the BOC.

I believe that what is keeping this alive is the moisture inflow from the Caribbean to the East and the GOM to the North and NW of the low.

Arthur may not be done yet.

Link
Member Since: August 19, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 15846
962. Cavin Rawlins
1:59 PM GMT on June 02, 2008
Now most models keep the mid-lower circulation of the wave near the cape verdes. This wave should encounter the eastward moving MJO pulse that helped spawn Alma and Arthur. This wave should be monitored as the ECWMF breifly develops this feature near 44W. MJO is expected to be near the Central ATL around June 7-12.

Member Since: July 24, 2005 Posts: 407 Comments: 19076
961. Buhdog
1:58 PM GMT on June 02, 2008
One thing I have noticed in South Florida is that sometimes these tropical systems that form south or east of us actually make things drier around here. Either subsidence or effecting the positioning of the AB high so we don't get proper sea-breezes. This storm is actually creating very weak steering for us in CAPE CORAL...storms are not moving much and not making it to the coast yet. The heat would be ok if we had some relief in the evening.
Member Since: July 30, 2005 Posts: 1 Comments: 960
959. NEwxguy
1:55 PM GMT on June 02, 2008
GM all,missed Arthur this weekend was busy.Hate these weekend storms,not even worth the name.
Member Since: September 6, 2007 Posts: 886 Comments: 15942
958. IKE
1:53 PM GMT on June 02, 2008
True 69viking.
Member Since: June 9, 2005 Posts: 23 Comments: 37858
957. 69Viking
1:51 PM GMT on June 02, 2008
949. IKE 8:36 AM CDT on June 02, 2008

Amazing how the sea breeze can keep the coast 5 - 10 degrees cooler. Of course that doesn't happen in July and August when the water temperature really heats up in the GOM.
Member Since: August 25, 2006 Posts: 1 Comments: 3074
956. Cavin Rawlins
1:51 PM GMT on June 02, 2008
945. cchsweatherman 9:28 AM AST on June 02, 2008

Which models develop the wave? I check most of them and none did. Also look at the wind shear forecast. The wave at 54W should encounter a barrier in the SE Caribbean, afterwhich wind shear is expected slacken in the Central-Western Caribbean.


941. stoormfury 9:09 AM AST on June 02, 2008

The area in the EPAC has the better chance of developing based on QuikSCAT, surface analysis and uppper level winds.

Member Since: July 24, 2005 Posts: 407 Comments: 19076
955. JFLORIDA
1:48 PM GMT on June 02, 2008
I prefer "Gender Transcendent" Dr M

But Arthur is Awesome! There was a lot in that wave/system. Always was. I wouldn't be surprised if more poops out.
Member Since: May 22, 2006 Posts: 188 Comments: 24743
954. guygee
1:46 PM GMT on June 02, 2008
946. Skyepony 1:31 PM GMT on June 02, 2008
Arthur trying to spawn twins?

LOL, LandStorms never spawn twins (can you spawn on land?).

Maybe more like a race, if one develops, the other gets starved of inflow and sheared.
Member Since: September 16, 2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 3174
953. stoormfury
1:45 PM GMT on June 02, 2008
cchsweatherman
the wave se of the winwards is sheared and stretched out by 25knots wind shear. looking at the structure now it does not have a chance of development. it will only bring some showers to the islands
Member Since: August 22, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 2720
952. groundswell
1:44 PM GMT on June 02, 2008
Well Arthur indirectly produced a small wind swell on Sat-it was rideable & the incoming tide had a few 3 foot sets on the outside at Ponce. Water temp officialy 79 degrees, so everything in place now in no shear zones.
Member Since: August 28, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 381
951. TampaSpin
1:44 PM GMT on June 02, 2008
JP i have 85Deg here in Tampa already dam....
Member Since: September 2, 2007 Posts: 179 Comments: 20448
949. IKE
1:36 PM GMT on June 02, 2008
944. 69Viking 8:20 AM CDT on June 02, 2008
935. IKE 7:54 AM CDT on June 02, 2008

Hunting camp and it was hot. 95 everyday compared to the 85 on the coast.


Hot here too in Defuniak Spgs. Highs today in the 90's.
Member Since: June 9, 2005 Posts: 23 Comments: 37858
948. IKE
1:37 PM GMT on June 02, 2008
946. Skyepony 8:31 AM CDT on June 02, 2008
Arthur trying to spawn twins?


LOL...from sex change to having twins...Identical?
Member Since: June 9, 2005 Posts: 23 Comments: 37858
947. seflagamma
1:34 PM GMT on June 02, 2008
good morning my weather friends!

If that low system gets back into pacific and gets a 3rd name ...will that be crazy or what!LOL

just checking in..will be back later.
Member Since: August 29, 2005 Posts: 299 Comments: 40924
946. Skyepony (Mod)
1:31 PM GMT on June 02, 2008
Arthur trying to spawn twins?
Member Since: August 10, 2005 Posts: 191 Comments: 38624
945. cchsweatherman
1:28 PM GMT on June 02, 2008
Tropical Weather Discussion for MONDAY, JUNE 2, 2008.

Welcome to the 2008 Atlantic Hurricane Season!

Taking a look out into the Tropical Atlantic, there are a few features out there that warrant further discussion, but not concern. We have the remnants from Tropical Storm Arthur meandering in southern Mexico, a strong tropical wave just off the South American coast, and an interesting spin at around 30N and 57W.

Tropical Storm Arthur is no longer as the NHC issued their last advisory on the system last night. After spending its entire lifetime on land (the first named tropical system in history to accomplish this), it had weakened into a remnant low. But, it appears that Arthur is not done, yes, I said not done. According to some computer models, this remnant low will work southward into the Eastern Pacific off the southern Mexican coast. With favorable conditions setting up, we could see Tropical Storm Boris form here as there is some very intense convection lurking offshore. We will just have to wait and see if this remnant low can regenerate first before we can discuss a possible path.



As you can clearly see in satellite imagery from the Yucatan Peninsula, there is some more intense convection lurking in the Gulf of Honduras (just off the eastern Yucatan). There has been some rather persistent convection in this area for days now, in association with now-former Arthur. In time, this moisture and convection could move northward into the southern Gulf of Mexico, where some slow development could occur as suggested by a few computer models, but that remains to be seen.



Now, lets discuss the tropical wave. Located on 53W between 5 N to 13N, there has been some some strong showers and storms persisting with this tropical wave. Overnight, there was some slight turning occuring, suggesting that tropical development was trying to occur, but as it continued WNW, it has encountered some higher wind shear which has weakened the strong storms on the wave axis. It will continue moving WNW to NW over the coming days. There are no computer models developing this wave. With the original update, I had mentioned this, but was incorrect. The tropical wave near Africa has been developed by some computer models, not this one. Sorry for the error.



Finally, there is an interesting little feature I noticed while watching satellite imagery and through my analysis. There is an evident spin occuring at around 30N and 57W with some increasing convection wrapping around. Right now, this circulation remains in the mid-to-upper levels, meaning that nothing tropical will form, but there are some signs that this may be working down to the surface, where tropical development would then be possible, but slow to occur. No computer models develop this feature, but it would not surprise me to see some subtropical development (maybe even tropical if it can work down to the surface) to occur, although it would be slow development.

Stay tuned for further updates that should come daily now, depending upon my schedule.
Member Since: April 14, 2007 Posts: 8 Comments: 5169
944. 69Viking
1:20 PM GMT on June 02, 2008
935. IKE 7:54 AM CDT on June 02, 2008

Hunting camp and it was hot. 95 everyday compared to the 85 on the coast.
Member Since: August 25, 2006 Posts: 1 Comments: 3074
943. Tazmanian
1:13 PM GMT on June 02, 2008
000
ABPZ20 KNHC 021154
TWOEP
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
500 AM PDT SUN JUN 1 2008

FOR THE EASTERN NORTH PACIFIC...EAST OF 140 DEGREES WEST LONGITUDE..

A LARGE AREA OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EXTENDS FROM THE GULF OF
TEHUANTEPEC SOUTHWARD FOR A FEW HUNDRED MILES OVER THE EASTERN
PACIFIC. THIS ACTIVITY IS ASSOCIATED WITH THE SAME BROAD AREA OF
LOW PRESSURE THAT HAS ALREADY PRODUCED TROPICAL STORMS ALMA AND
ARTHUR
. UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BECOME A LITTLE MORE
FAVORABLE FOR DEVELOPMENT...AND A TROPICAL DEPRESSION COULD FORM
WITHIN THIS AREA DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO. REGARDLESS OF
DEVELOPMENT...LOCALLY HEAVY RAINS ARE POSSIBLE OVER PORTIONS OF EL
SALVADOR...GUATEMALA...AND SOUTHEASTERN MEXICO.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

that thing wont give up
Member Since: May 21, 2006 Posts: 5091 Comments: 115347
942. norfolknob
1:10 PM GMT on June 02, 2008
Hi Momiller in Caye Caulker, we here in the south in Toledo have had just about continuous rain and my quick and dirty reckoning is at least 8" in 24 hours (Saturday). Still, if the season sticks to rain - I'll be happy!

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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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