Alma's remains could become a Gulf of Mexico tropical depression

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 3:30 PM GMT on May 31, 2008

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The remnants of Tropical Storm Alma reorganized over the Western Caribbean this morning, just off the coast of Belize. The storm (now called Invest 90L), whipped up winds over 40 mph over the ocean just east of Belize, according to this morning's 7:11am EDT QuikSCAT pass. Observations from Buoy 42056, just to the north in the Yucatan Channel, showed sustained winds of 30 mph, gusting to 35, with 10 foot seas. The center of 90L has now moved inland over Belize, and the storm has missed its chance to become the first tropical depression of the 2008 Atlantic hurricane season. It will have one more chance to do so on Sunday afternoon, when several models, including the GFDL and NOGAPS, are predicting that 90L will continue west into the Gulf of Mexico's Bay of Campeche and reorganize. The other models keep 90L inland over Mexico and do not foresee development into a tropical depression. If 90L does emerge into the Gulf of Mexico, it will not stay there long--a strong ridge of high pressure is forecast by all the models to force 90L on a west-southwesterly track into Mexico, giving the storm perhaps 12 hours to reorganize. Wind shear will be low, 5-10 knots, and I give 90L a 40% chance of becoming a tropical depression by Sunday night or Monday morning. The storm should bring heavy rains of 3-6 inches to Honduras, El Salvador, Belize, Guatemala, and Mexico's Yucatan Peninsula over the next two days. If 90L does manage to reorganize into a tropical depression or weak tropical storm, southeast Mexico could end up with 5-10 inches of rain. Here's NHC's take on the system:

Special tropical disturbance statement
1130 am EDT Sat May 31 2008

The broad area of low pressure previously located over the western Caribbean Sea has moved inland over Belize and the Yucatan Peninsula this morning. This system is accompanied by a large area of squalls and gusty winds primarily over the waters north and east of the circulation center. Significant development is not expected today as the system moves slowly westward over the Yucatan Peninsula. However...there is some potential for a tropical cyclone to form if the area of low pressure moves over the Bay of Campeche on Sunday.

Even if no development occurs...localized heavy rains and floods are possible during the next couple of days over portions of Honduras...El Salvador..Guatemala...Belize...and southeastern Mexico. Future tropical disturbance statements will be issued on this system as necessary. For information specific to your area...please consult statements from your local weather office.

Forecaster Avila/Rhome



Figure 1. Current satellite image of Alma's remnants, now called 90L.

Rare severe weather outbreak today along East Coast
More tornadoes raked the Midwest yesterday, adding to the extensive damage already wreaked by one of the worst months of tornado damage in U.S. history. Yesterday's most significant destruction occurred at 5:15am CDT in Attica, Iowa, when an EF-2 tornado smashed through town, injuring 10 people. Other tornadoes hit Wyoming, Minnesota, Illinois, Indiana, and Ohio.

Today, the action shifts to the East Coast, where the Storm Prediction Center is calling for a "Moderate" risk of severe weather from New York City to Washington D.C. The primary threat will be damaging thunderstorm wind gusts and large hail, but some brief tornado touchdowns are also possible.

Jeff Masters

Aftermath - Parkersburg Iowa (AlteredStars)
These photos are the results of a tornado that tore through Parkersburg Iowa Memorial weekend. Over 300 homes leveled, and left 7 people dead in it's path. Photos can't begin to show the devastation. Seeing the damage makes a person's stomach turn. Even though residents lost so much they are all working together to salvage any personal items they can find. My friend’s grandparents home was leveled and it felt good to help what little I could by sifting through rubble saving anything that was still useable. After seeing this damage I will never again under estimate the power of Mother Nature.
Aftermath - Parkersburg Iowa
Electricity (rrose1)
These shots were taken just before dawn as a very energetic storm passed south of Hutchinson, KS.
Electricity
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1384. HurrikanEB
2:10 PM GMT on June 01, 2008
1377. SouthDadeFish 1:48 PM GMT on June 01, 2008
I believe it would keep the same name. Its not a new system thats forming it would just be a relocation of the center of circulation.


So if the center that the NHC is tracking were to some how make it to the BOC and redevelop and this new center were to develop could we possibly see two arthurs. i know its highly unlikey (i cant even locate the old center on satelite loops) and that the stronger one would probally just "sufficate" the weaker one, but if that senario did happen could we have 2 arthurs?


Member Since: May 2, 2008 Posts: 12 Comments: 1344
1383. XoendHoroeken
1:57 PM GMT on June 01, 2008
I just watched TWC tropical update with Dr. Lyons and he said Arthur was dying inland and was nothing to worry about. BUT, he started talking about the moisture to the East of Arthur and how we may, "see something pop up and move toward the keys in the coming days. but not to affect the rest of the Gulf states..."

... Is there any model showing this?
1382. IpswichWeatherCenter
1:57 PM GMT on June 01, 2008
noobs... theres a new blog
Member Since: April 27, 2008 Posts: 29 Comments: 2097
1381. SouthDadeFish
1:56 PM GMT on June 01, 2008
Even if the center relocates or has relocated offshore it would most likely move back onto land. Additionally, wind shear is not too favorable over the area. Arthur better have one more trick up his sleeve if he wants to stick around much longer.
Member Since: August 12, 2007 Posts: 11 Comments: 2448
1380. IKE
1:55 PM GMT on June 01, 2008
New blog folks.
Member Since: June 9, 2005 Posts: 23 Comments: 37860
1379. TampaSpin
1:52 PM GMT on June 01, 2008
Just NE of the Turneffe Islands and maybe even further North is the COC IMO.
Member Since: September 2, 2007 Posts: 179 Comments: 20448
1378. moonlightcowboy
1:51 PM GMT on June 01, 2008
1373. Yes, Baha. Sometimes it loads quickly, other times not so fast. Maybe refresh helps. It's definitive-looking imo.
Member Since: July 9, 2006 Posts: 184 Comments: 29610
1377. SouthDadeFish
1:48 PM GMT on June 01, 2008
I believe it would keep the same name. Its not a new system thats forming it would just be a relocation of the center of circulation. When systems interact with land the center can jump around multiple times.
Member Since: August 12, 2007 Posts: 11 Comments: 2448
1376. extreme236
1:48 PM GMT on June 01, 2008
It would still be Arthur because it is part of Arthur.
Member Since: August 2, 2007 Posts: 19 Comments: 19234
1375. TampaSpin
1:48 PM GMT on June 01, 2008
I think the new center is just NE of the Island.
Member Since: September 2, 2007 Posts: 179 Comments: 20448
1374. HurrikanEB
1:46 PM GMT on June 01, 2008
any ideas as to where the new Arthur blob may go?...and if it did get a name it would be Bertha and not a continuation of Arthur...right?
Member Since: May 2, 2008 Posts: 12 Comments: 1344
1373. BahaHurican
1:44 PM GMT on June 01, 2008
Is that Mona Kea link supposed to take a while to load?
Member Since: October 25, 2005 Posts: 19 Comments: 22736
1372. TampaSpin
1:44 PM GMT on June 01, 2008
1368. BahaHurican 9:42 AM EDT on June 01, 2008
Arthur is definitely deteriorating because of the interaction w/ land. The question is, will we see a split, like we saw w/ Jeanne in 2004, or will it just completely disintegrate?


You don't think the split hasn't already occured?
Member Since: September 2, 2007 Posts: 179 Comments: 20448
1371. SouthDadeFish
1:43 PM GMT on June 01, 2008
Wind shear is over 20 knots over the blob in the Caribbean... Thats not too favorable.
Member Since: August 12, 2007 Posts: 11 Comments: 2448
1370. IpswichWeatherCenter
1:43 PM GMT on June 01, 2008


Not alot but its enough to call the blob a ts
Member Since: April 27, 2008 Posts: 29 Comments: 2097
1369. HurrikanEB
1:42 PM GMT on June 01, 2008
hi everyone
i see Arthur may be splitting
Member Since: May 2, 2008 Posts: 12 Comments: 1344
1368. BahaHurican
1:42 PM GMT on June 01, 2008
Arthur is definitely deteriorating because of the interaction w/ land. The question is, will we see a split, like we saw w/ Jeanne in 2004, or will it just completely disintegrate?
Member Since: October 25, 2005 Posts: 19 Comments: 22736
1367. IpswichWeatherCenter
1:40 PM GMT on June 01, 2008
1364.
Theres lower level convergence too!
Member Since: April 27, 2008 Posts: 29 Comments: 2097
1366. BahaHurican
1:39 PM GMT on June 01, 2008
1350.
1352
1353.
1355 - 1361.

All I can say is "Lawd, Lawd, Lawd . . ."

LOL
Member Since: October 25, 2005 Posts: 19 Comments: 22736
1365. IKE
1:39 PM GMT on June 01, 2008
1363. TampaSpin 8:38 AM CDT on June 01, 2008
Steering layer maps update every 3 hours is this correct.


I think so.
Member Since: June 9, 2005 Posts: 23 Comments: 37860
1364. IKE
1:38 PM GMT on June 01, 2008
Upper level divergence with the blob east of Belize...

Link
Member Since: June 9, 2005 Posts: 23 Comments: 37860
1363. TampaSpin
1:38 PM GMT on June 01, 2008
Steering layer maps update every 3 hours is this correct.
Member Since: September 2, 2007 Posts: 179 Comments: 20448
1362. WPBHurricane05
1:36 PM GMT on June 01, 2008
Arthur?

Arthur?
Member Since: July 31, 2006 Posts: 56 Comments: 8112
1361. presslord
1:33 PM GMT on June 01, 2008
Do I need to fly down there and drive sj home?
Member Since: August 13, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 10492
1360. IKE
1:29 PM GMT on June 01, 2008
1359. Patrap 8:28 AM CDT on June 01, 2008
Do they have BAil Bondsman in JAx,,,anyone?


lol.
Member Since: June 9, 2005 Posts: 23 Comments: 37860
1359. Patrap
1:28 PM GMT on June 01, 2008
Do they have BAil Bondsman in JAx,,,anyone?
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 428 Comments: 129903
1358. presslord
1:28 PM GMT on June 01, 2008
I just can't wait for sj to get back...gonna have to buy him a beer and get all the scoop...
Member Since: August 13, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 10492
1357. IKE
1:27 PM GMT on June 01, 2008
1350. moonlightcowboy 8:23 AM CDT on June 01, 2008
Mawnin', Pat! Yep, it's here and how's that "cane" state treating you? I'll bet Jxnville will never be the same again with all that crew together! ;P


Here ya go....Jacksonville kid...Lynyrd Skynyrd........Link
Member Since: June 9, 2005 Posts: 23 Comments: 37860
1356. TampaSpin
1:27 PM GMT on June 01, 2008
1353. presslord 9:25 AM EDT on June 01, 2008
I heard that stormjunkie passed out drunk on the beach last night...don't know if it's true...just sayin'....that's the rumor....


He's a junkie would you expect anything less....lol
Member Since: September 2, 2007 Posts: 179 Comments: 20448
1355. Patrap
1:27 PM GMT on June 01, 2008
Yup presslord,..and if you hear a rumor that I was somehow a BAker and MAde roses for the Wedding cake,..there completely untrue.
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 428 Comments: 129903
1354. TampaSpin
1:26 PM GMT on June 01, 2008
I don't see the new Arthur doing to much as Shear northward is quit high.
Member Since: September 2, 2007 Posts: 179 Comments: 20448
1353. presslord
1:25 PM GMT on June 01, 2008
I heard that stormjunkie passed out drunk on the beach last night...don't know if it's true...just sayin'....that's the rumor....
Member Since: August 13, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 10492
1352. Patrap
1:25 PM GMT on June 01, 2008
I think we shattered some local records on the BEach yesterday,,,SHuttle Launch oooh's and ahhhh's were a plenty.
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 428 Comments: 129903
1351. BahaHurican
1:24 PM GMT on June 01, 2008
1300. momiller 8:33 AM EDT on June 01, 2008
I am located on the Island of Caye Caulker, Belize. Caye Caulker is about 18 miles N of Belize City and 9 miles offshore.


Cool! Welcome to the blog! Are u stationed there, or a short term resident? (We're always trolling for local informants LOL.)
Member Since: October 25, 2005 Posts: 19 Comments: 22736
1350. moonlightcowboy
1:23 PM GMT on June 01, 2008
Mawnin', Pat! Yep, it's here and how's that "cane" state treating you? I'll bet Jxnville will never be the same again with all that crew together! ;P
Member Since: July 9, 2006 Posts: 184 Comments: 29610
1349. IKE
1:21 PM GMT on June 01, 2008
Formerly Alma...then Arthur...now Arthur's twin?
Member Since: June 9, 2005 Posts: 23 Comments: 37860
1348. TampaSpin
1:21 PM GMT on June 01, 2008
Ike Arthur has to be near Storm statue in its new location......IMO
Member Since: September 2, 2007 Posts: 179 Comments: 20448
1347. Patrap
1:21 PM GMT on June 01, 2008
The Season iz her!!!
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 428 Comments: 129903
1346. moonlightcowboy
1:20 PM GMT on June 01, 2008


GOES EAST IR loop from Mauna Kea Weather. It may take a minute to load, but worth the wait.

Surely, this clears up doubt as to where rotation is. I think the original "land-named" and "never seen" water "Arthur" has gone pooooofff, and we're seeing outflow overland now from the new, reincarnate Arthur now over open water and gaining strength.
Member Since: July 9, 2006 Posts: 184 Comments: 29610
1345. TampaSpin
1:19 PM GMT on June 01, 2008
1343. IKE 9:15 AM EDT on June 01, 2008
System east of Belize is looking pretty good on the 1245 UTC visible


With that new visible you can see the whole atmosphere turning around the new Arthur...very impressive.
Member Since: September 2, 2007 Posts: 179 Comments: 20448
1343. IKE
1:15 PM GMT on June 01, 2008
System east of Belize is looking pretty good on the 1245 UTC visible.
Member Since: June 9, 2005 Posts: 23 Comments: 37860
1342. IKE
1:13 PM GMT on June 01, 2008
1341. watchingnva 8:12 AM CDT on June 01, 2008
hey IKE...at least with those coordinates they got the low level circulation down pat...lol


Yeah...lol.
Member Since: June 9, 2005 Posts: 23 Comments: 37860
1340. IKE
1:10 PM GMT on June 01, 2008
1338. TampaSpin 8:10 AM CDT on June 01, 2008
1336. IKE 9:08 AM EDT on June 01, 2008
18.1N and 90.4W...nothing much there.

IKE stop wishcasting for a spin in a location.....ROFLMAO


lol.
Member Since: June 9, 2005 Posts: 23 Comments: 37860
1339. IKE
1:10 PM GMT on June 01, 2008
What was the COC, according to the NHC...is no more....from the looks of it.
Member Since: June 9, 2005 Posts: 23 Comments: 37860
1338. TampaSpin
1:10 PM GMT on June 01, 2008
1336. IKE 9:08 AM EDT on June 01, 2008
18.1N and 90.4W...nothing much there.


IKE stop wishcasting for a spin in a location.....ROFLMAO
Member Since: September 2, 2007 Posts: 179 Comments: 20448
1337. TampaSpin
1:08 PM GMT on June 01, 2008
in about 10 min. we will get another new Sat. pic.
Member Since: September 2, 2007 Posts: 179 Comments: 20448
1336. IKE
1:08 PM GMT on June 01, 2008
18.1N and 90.4W...nothing much there.
Member Since: June 9, 2005 Posts: 23 Comments: 37860
1335. TampaSpin
1:07 PM GMT on June 01, 2008
Nope it will still be Arthur.
Member Since: September 2, 2007 Posts: 179 Comments: 20448

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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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