Alma dies without causing a major disaster; tornadoes rip Midwest

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 3:03 PM GMT on May 30, 2008

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Tropical Storm Alma has dissipated over the high mountains of Honduras, and thankfully did not dump enough rain to cause a major flooding disaster in Central America. At 3pm EDT yesterday, Alma became the first tropical storm since records began in 1949 to make landfall on the Pacific coast of Central America. All previous Eastern Pacific storms have hit Mexico, which is considered part of North America. Alma came ashore in Nicaragua, near the Honduras border, as a tropical storm with 65 mph winds. So far, one person has been killed in Nicaragua, due to a fallen power cable. However, Alma has not dumped enough rain to cause widespread flooding--rainfall amounts in Nicaragua the past two day have been 3-8 inches. Costa Rica has had rains of similar magnitude, which have caused isolated mudslides that have blocked roads. Additional rain from Alma's remnants should total less than two inches in Costa Rica and four inches in Nicaragua. However, Honduras, El Salvador, Belize, Guatemala, and Mexico's Yucatan Peninsula are likely to get 4-8 inches of rain over the next two days from this system, which could cause significant flooding and mud slides.


Figure 1. Current satellite image of Alma's remnants.

There is a large area of disturbed weather that has developed in the Western Caribbean between Jamaica and the Yucatan Peninsula in the past few hours, in association with a trough of low pressure extending from the center of Alma. This morning's 7:37am EDT QuikSCAT pass showed winds of up to 50 knots (58 mph) in this region, but no hint of a circulation or wind shift. It is possible that this disturbed area could start to develop on its own later today, as a westward-moving tropical wave currently near Jamaica interacts with it. This area should expand and spread into Honduras, Belize, and Mexico's Yucatan by Saturday. However, I'm not expecting a major flooding disaster with heavy loss of life anywhere in Central America from Alma's remnants. The GFS model is predicting that moisture from Alma will eventually work its way north and bring heavy rains to Florida by June 7. No models are predicting a tropical storm in the Atlantic during the coming week.


Figure 2. Doppler radar winds from the Kearney, Nebraska tornadoes of May 29, 2008. Note that a twin set of vorticies appears in this image, denoting that two adjacent tornadoes may have hit.

Tornadoes rip the Midwest again Thursday; tornadoes expected today in Illinois, Indiana, and Missouri
Numerous strong tornadoes raked the Midwest last night, adding to the extensive damage already wreaked by one of the worst months of tornado damage in U.S. history. Last night's most significant destruction occurred in Jewell, Kansas, and Kearney, Nebraska. In Jewell, numerous businesses were destroyed and the town water tower toppled. In Kearney, multiple twisters hit, and a 90-car train was knocked off of its tracks. Wunderblogger Mike Theiss caught up to the Kearney tornado, and describes his experience in his blog today. All told, there were 55 tornado reports Thursday, but no deaths or injuries.

The Storm Prediction Center is calling for a "Moderate" risk of severe weather across Illinois, Indiana, and Missouri this afternoon---one level below their "High" risk level that was posted yesterday. Expect another significant tornado outbreak today. The Weather Underground Severe Weather page and Tornado page are good places to go to follow the severe weather. Also, tune in to the chase accounts and awesome storm photos from Wunderblogger Mike Theiss. Mike is in Tornado Alley this week, performing his annual chase efforts.

Jeff Masters

TIV 1 under thunderstorm (MikeTheiss)
Photo of the original TIV (Tornado Intercept Vehicle) driving out from underneath thunderstorm. Photo copyright Mike Theiss
TIV 1 under thunderstorm
Osbourne Kansas Tornado (MikeTheiss)
Blurry photo of the Osbourne Kansas tornado taken while driving. Photo copyright Mike Theiss
Osbourne Kansas Tornado
Storm Chasers with eerie skies (MikeTheiss)
Photo of Cloud 9 Tours members parked underneath some really eerie looking skies. Photo copyright Mike Theiss
Storm Chasers with eerie skies
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466. TampaSpin
7:54 PM EDT on May 30, 2008
413. TampaSpin 7:27 PM EDT on May 30, 2008
408. all4hurricanes 7:25 PM EDT on May 30, 2008
I wouldn't be surprised if alma became Arthur in the Gulf of Mexico which is where all the computer models are forecasting it to go. It could be like Bret of 2005. Honestly the first invest, depression, and T.S. are exciting but we don,t see any super strong first storms like Allen, or Anita



I just looked at nearly every model and none put this in the GOM. Most have it heading toward the NNW then NW Then W toward the Pacific....has it changed in the last Hour...LMAO.



I posted this about 1/2 hour ago.....i think NHC just comfirmed.
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465. extreme236
11:54 PM GMT on May 30, 2008
Drak, the 18Z long range SK model predicts a Cat 5 storm will hit NOLA in August.
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464. hurricane23
7:53 PM EDT on May 30, 2008
May have some shot once in the BOC but for now its one of dozen invest that pop during the season that never do much.Only one place to go and thats straight west/wnw due to signifcant ridge to its north.
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463. stormkat
11:50 PM GMT on May 30, 2008
90l will amount to nothing but a lot of rain for someone....hopefully texas will get some of that later in the week....stormkat..
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462. Drakoen
11:50 PM GMT on May 30, 2008
thelmores, the majority has been talking in absolutes. Didn't you see mine on the bottom of page 8?
Member Since: October 28, 2006 Posts: 57 Comments: 31903
461. KEEPEROFTHEGATE (Mod)
7:45 PM EDT on May 30, 2008
got nothng on the ssd site not even a floater on it waiting on NHC when did the navy site put it up must of been a few hours ago had to read back though a bunch of crap posts till i saw it posted
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460. thelmores
11:46 PM GMT on May 30, 2008
if the Navy says it's an invest..... well its an invest!

and 23, you should know better to talk in such absolutes!

will 90L amount to anything? probably not! but my point is nobody knows!

having said all that, appears to me a NW motion, maybe even WNW.......... LAND HO!
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459. cchsweatherman
7:48 PM EDT on May 30, 2008
Atlantic SPECIAL TROPICAL DISTURBANCE STATEMENT
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------


000
WONT41 KNHC 302348
DSAAT
SPECIAL TROPICAL DISTURBANCE STATEMENT
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 PM EDT FRI MAY 30 2008

AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE...ASSOCIATED WITH THE REMNANTS OF FORMER
EASTERN PACIFIC TROPICAL STORM ALMA...IS CENTERED OVER THE GULF OF
HONDURAS ABOUT 50 MILES EAST OF THE COAST OF BELIZE. DEVELOPMENT
OF THIS SYSTEM APPEARS UNLIKELY DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO AS IT
MOVES SLOWLY WESTWARD OR WEST-NORTHWESTWARD OVER THE SOUTHERN
YUCATAN PENINSULA. NEVERTHELESS...LOCALIZED HEAVY RAINS AND FLOODS
ARE POSSIBLE DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS OVER PORTIONS OF
HONDURAS...EL SALVADOR...GUATELAMALA...BELIZE...AND SOUTHEASTERN
MEXICO. FUTURE TROPICAL DISTURBANCE STATEMENTS WILL BE ISSUED ON
THIS SYSTEM AS NECESSARY. FOR INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR
AREA...PLEASE CONSULT STATEMENTS FROM YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

$$
FORECASTER KNABB/BLAKE

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458. extreme236
11:47 PM GMT on May 30, 2008
There watching it...but their skeptical.

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457. stormkat
11:48 PM GMT on May 30, 2008
you right emguy andrew was nothing to play with..and it formed almost like katrina did east of fla...stormkat
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456. Weather456
7:46 PM AST on May 30, 2008
443. all4hurricanes 7:42 PM AST on May 30, 2008
456 youre only 20!
I shouldn't be surprised I wasn't even alive when Andrew hit


not yet but soon.

=================================================

There are so such thing as an unofficial invest. The NHC declares them. There is just a lag between what they have and updating the satellite imagery.
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455. Bamatracker
11:48 PM GMT on May 30, 2008

Atlantic SPECIAL TROPICAL DISTURBANCE STATEMENT
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------


000
WONT41 KNHC 302348
DSAAT
SPECIAL TROPICAL DISTURBANCE STATEMENT
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 PM EDT FRI MAY 30 2008

AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE...ASSOCIATED WITH THE REMNANTS OF FORMER
EASTERN PACIFIC TROPICAL STORM ALMA...IS CENTERED OVER THE GULF OF
HONDURAS ABOUT 50 MILES EAST OF THE COAST OF BELIZE. DEVELOPMENT
OF THIS SYSTEM APPEARS UNLIKELY DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO AS IT
MOVES SLOWLY WESTWARD OR WEST-NORTHWESTWARD OVER THE SOUTHERN
YUCATAN PENINSULA. NEVERTHELESS...LOCALIZED HEAVY RAINS AND FLOODS
ARE POSSIBLE DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS OVER PORTIONS OF
HONDURAS...EL SALVADOR...GUATELAMALA...BELIZE...AND SOUTHEASTERN
MEXICO. FUTURE TROPICAL DISTURBANCE STATEMENTS WILL BE ISSUED ON
THIS SYSTEM AS NECESSARY. FOR INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR
AREA...PLEASE CONSULT STATEMENTS FROM YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

$$
FORECASTER KNABB/BLAKE



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454. moonlightcowboy
6:46 PM CDT on May 30, 2008
RAMSDIS WV loop
Member Since: July 9, 2006 Posts: 184 Comments: 29613
453. emguy
11:44 PM GMT on May 30, 2008
442...You are correct. I just checked on that. Funny, the 1992 season map does not include TD1, but living in the area I clearly recall it. My grandfather's name was Andrew and as the TD was approcahing, we got a chuckle out of that possibility of the TD having the same name. Mother nature always gets the last laugh though...come August of that year, it wasn't such a funny irony any more.
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452. stormkat
11:43 PM GMT on May 30, 2008
extreme you will hear their tropical update as usual...that should make you happy....stormkat
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451. Weather456
7:41 PM AST on May 30, 2008
450. all4hurricanes
11:45 PM GMT on May 30, 2008
so thats why WU doesn't have 90L

I still think a depression is possible in the Gulf
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449. cchsweatherman
7:43 PM EDT on May 30, 2008
444. KEEPEROFTHEGATE 7:42 PM EDT on May 30, 2008
only navy has 90l up nothing on ssd site or NHC site as of yet so my guess is its a unofficial invest at the moment


Keep in mind that the next NHC update will come shortly, so they are probably waiting until then to make anything official. Usually, the NHC follows suit with the NAVY guys.
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448. hurricane23
7:43 PM EDT on May 30, 2008
444. KEEPEROFTHEGATE 7:37 PM EDT on May 30, 2008
only navy has 90l up nothing on ssd site or NHC site as of yet so my guess is its a unofficial invest at the moment

Uh no this has been officical for a while now.Its basically an invest with no future.
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447. Drakoen
11:41 PM GMT on May 30, 2008
extreme you're walking into the proverbial lion's den...
Member Since: October 28, 2006 Posts: 57 Comments: 31903
446. stormkat
11:39 PM GMT on May 30, 2008
cch the navy makes mistakes sometmes....there is nothing to update if there is it would of been updated already since you guys have it a td...stormkat
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445. HadesGodWyvern (Mod)
11:34 PM GMT on May 30, 2008
hmm I thought last year Felix or Dean was threatening to enter the EPAC near Baja California people were saying it would retain its Felix or Dean name in the East Pacific if it became a tropica storm again.
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444. KEEPEROFTHEGATE (Mod)
7:37 PM EDT on May 30, 2008
only navy has 90l up nothing on ssd site or NHC site as of yet so my guess is its a unofficial invest at the moment
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443. all4hurricanes
11:41 PM GMT on May 30, 2008
456 youre only 20!
I shouldn't be surprised I wasn't even alive when Andrew hit
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442. extreme236
11:40 PM GMT on May 30, 2008
First storm of the 1992 season, albeit subtropical. Formed in April.

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441. all4hurricanes
11:38 PM GMT on May 30, 2008
actually no cchweatherman it was a subtropical storm that wasn't named. wouldn't it be wierd if Bonnie was the cat 5 in Miami it sounds to odd.

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440. Weather456
7:38 PM AST on May 30, 2008
431. all4hurricanes 7:35 PM EDT on May 30, 2008
Trick Question
What was the first storm of the 1992 hurricane season ?


Wasnt it a subtropical storm or something like that. Sorry I was only 4 at that time.
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439. extreme236
11:38 PM GMT on May 30, 2008
Sorry to tell you stormkat but the NHC doesn't issue invests hours before their death...they use their best information they can and quite frankly that info is better than yours.

I guess after wishcasting all these years stormkat for storms to hit and be wrong now your going for downcasting and being wrong (however I'm not sure if this will develop or not...I want to hear what the NHC has to say)
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438. hurricane23
7:39 PM EDT on May 30, 2008
431. all4hurricanes 7:35 PM EDT on May 30, 2008
Trick Question
What was the first storm of the 1992 hurricane season ?

Rather easy....

april 21,92 it was a sub-tropical system.
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437. emguy
11:38 PM GMT on May 30, 2008
434.

1992...It was TD 1. A very diffuse system that crossed central Florida from the Gulf. I want to say it was a late June system, but I'd have to double check on that.
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436. moonlightcowboy
6:38 PM CDT on May 30, 2008
422. Thanks, Hades. Great reference tool.
Member Since: July 9, 2006 Posts: 184 Comments: 29613
434. cchsweatherman
7:35 PM EDT on May 30, 2008
431. all4hurricanes 7:35 PM EDT on May 30, 2008
Trick Question
What was the first storm of the 1992 hurricane season ?


Andrew?
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433. DocBen
11:35 PM GMT on May 30, 2008
Since the NHC issued their last advisory on Alma, any tropical storm that would form in the Caribbean would be named Arthur.

How about "Arthur ben Alma"? (Arthur son of Alma)
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432. cchsweatherman
7:33 PM EDT on May 30, 2008
417. stormkat 7:29 PM EDT on May 30, 2008
cch you cant update nothing if they have nothing to update....stormkat


Why did the NAVY meteorologists declare Invest 90L then? Maybe there is something to update. CCHSWeatherman
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431. all4hurricanes
11:34 PM GMT on May 30, 2008
Trick Question
What was the first storm of the 1992 hurricane season ?
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430. DocBen
11:33 PM GMT on May 30, 2008
No problem Drak. In the same vein - what do you think the chances are of Alma/Arthur hitting my area as a Cat 5?

I live in Wichita KS

:)
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429. stormkat
11:32 PM GMT on May 30, 2008
i agree fully hurricane 23 what you said...stormkat
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428. TampaSpin
7:33 PM EDT on May 30, 2008
The low has already started moving WNW.
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427. all4hurricanes
11:32 PM GMT on May 30, 2008
DocBen if your using sarcasm I can't tell ( use lol when you are lol ) but 90L is Alma just dead and reforming
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426. cchsweatherman
7:32 PM EDT on May 30, 2008
421. DocBen 7:31 PM EDT on May 30, 2008
409 - cchs - I was wondering the same thing. By the way - go over there and look at the last position they show for Alma. It is real close to where 90L is. That is why I tend to like the name Alma again.


Since the NHC issued their last advisory on Alma, any tropical storm that would form in the Caribbean would be named Arthur.

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425. JLPR
7:30 PM AST on Mayo 30, 2008
oh wow Stormkat please argg shh =P

I know you are just giving your opinion but don't try to force it on us =P

Hi everyone =) I have been mostly in lurk mode =)
So 90L could end up going towards land? =P
wow lol why waste a name =D
But I guess if they gave it the name it means it has a chance to become something.
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424. Drakoen
11:31 PM GMT on May 30, 2008
I'm sorry for that behavior earlier but I just wanted to give you guys a taste of what I read sometimes in this blog.
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423. DocBen
11:32 PM GMT on May 30, 2008
15 GMT 05/30/08 15.4N 88.2W 25 1006 Tropical Depression

Alma's last position.
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422. nrtiwlnvragn
7:30 PM EDT on May 30, 2008
412. HadesGodWyvern

National Hurricane Operations Plan

Section 3.3
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421. DocBen
11:29 PM GMT on May 30, 2008
409 - cchs - I was wondering the same thing. By the way - go over there and look at the last position they show for Alma. It is real close to where 90L is. That is why I tend to like the name Alma again.
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420. all4hurricanes
11:30 PM GMT on May 30, 2008
Am I actually right, could Alma = Arthur
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419. cchsweatherman
7:27 PM EDT on May 30, 2008
Invest 90L has really begun tightening up and banding features have become quite evident. There maybe more to Alma's story to come. Just amazing to watch, even though much won't come from it.
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418. hurricane23
7:27 PM EDT on May 30, 2008
my my i get of for a few hours and boom 90L up on NRL.All i see as of now is a heading to the west or even wsw due to a pretty significant ridge to its north.If any futher development takes place it will have to be soon as the GOM will be rather hostile in the coming days.

Wanted to mention even if we have a named storm during the next few days it does not in any way shape or form indicate an extremely busy hurricane season in 08.All in all it should be inland sometime within the next 24hrs or so.
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417. stormkat
11:27 PM GMT on May 30, 2008
cch you cant update nothing if they have nothing to update....stormkat
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416. Drakoen
11:28 PM GMT on May 30, 2008
lol extreme. I think it had perfect initialization on that run so we should just discount everything. No scratch of my back.
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Dr. Masters co-founded wunderground in 1995. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990. Co-blogging with him: Bob Henson, @bhensonweather

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