Alma nears hurricane strength, takes aim at Nicaragua; major tornado outbreak today
Tropical Storm Alma, in the Eastern Pacific off the coast of Nicaragua, is steadily intensifying, and appears likely to develop into a hurricane later today. The latest QUikSCAT pass from 8:03am EDT showed winds of 50 knots (58 mph) near the center, and a recent microwave image (Figure 1) showed the formation of an eye. Alma is generating very heavy rains in excess of six inches per day near its center. So far, satellite estimates of rainfall (Figure 2) indicate that 3-6 inches of rain has fallen over portions of Costa Rica and Nicaragua, and rainfall will continue to increase in these nations through Saturday. All of Central America, except for Panama, is at risk of flash flooding that will create dangerous mud slides over the next three days, and Alma has the potential to be a major disaster for Central America. Nicaragua, in particular, is at high risk of experiencing flash flooding and mud slides capable of causing heavy loss of life, due to its high mountainous terrain that will receive up to 20 inches of rain. However, the mountainous regions along the Pacific coast of Costa Rica, Honduras, El Salvador, and Guatemala are also at high risk of destructive flooding and mud slides.
Figure 1. Microwave image (colored, left side) and visible satellite image (gray colors, right side) of Tropical Storm Alma taken at 10:14am EDT Thursday May 29, 2008. An eye is visible in the color microwave image, surrounded by intense echoes (red colors) of an eyewall on the west side of the eye. Microwave instruments carried on polar-orbiting satellites can only "see" a swatch of Earth's surface a few hundred kilometers in diameter, and the edge of this swath happened to fall very near the eye of Alma at this time. Image credit: Navy Research Lab, Monterey.
Since Alma now dominates the circulation pattern of the region, none of the computer models are predicting that a tropical depression will form in the Western Caribbean in the coming week. It is possible that Alma could cross Central America and pop out in the Gulf of Mexico's Bay of Campeche. However, the crossing of Central America will severely disrupt the storm, and the odds of Alma becoming a depression in the Atlantic basin are very low. I am not expecting moisture from the storm to reach the U.S. Satellite loops show that Alma has developed a large circulation that extends into the Western Caribbean, and rains from Alma will affect Jamaica, the Cayman Islands, Mexico's Yucatan Peninsula, and western Cuba through Saturday. These areas can expect heavy downpours with rainfall totals of 3-6 inches through Saturday. Rainfall may be heavier, perhaps 5-10 inches, in Belize and along the north coast of Honduras.
Figure 2. Observed precipitation for the 24 hours ending at 12Z (8am EDT) Thursday May 29, 2008. Rainfall amounts in excess of 150mm (six inches, green colors) occurred near the coast of Costa Rica. Image credit: U.S. Navy Monterey.
Major severe weather outbreak today in the Plains
The Storm Prediction Center is calling for a "High" risk of severe weather across Iowa and Nebraska this afternoon--the highest level of severe weather alert. Expect another significant tornado outbreak today in the Plains. The Weather Underground Severe Weather page and Tornado page are good places to go to follow the severe weather. Also, tune in to the chase accounts and awesome storm photos from Wunderblogger Mike Theiss. Mike is in Tornado Alley this week, performing his annual chase efforts.
I'll have an update Friday morning, or tonight if there's major tornado action to talk about.
Jeff Masters
Reader Comments
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What do you make of all this convection in the Caribbean? Link
None of the models see much for it right now, and it is likely just part of the larger circulation, but then again, a diurnal max blow up like that is what got Alma going last night.
I am off to bed, see y'all later!
I was thinking that the broad cyclonic surface circulation around Alma has become more somewhat disorganized but generally more elliptical and horizontally sheared out towards the NE into the Bay of Honduras and NE into the Caribbean. Alma's local circulation is embedded in this broader circulation. In other words, the larger circulation is somewhat more like a trough along which vortices are forming. I noticed yesterday a couple of small ones spinning off away from the storm. The big blowup in the Caribbean seem to have a small vortex near the surface west of it, east of the Belize coastline, that can be seen on this loop from NASA/GHCC (Not for the bandwidth-impaired)
NASA/GHCC IR Loop(10 frame)
It would seem that given current conditions, there is virtually no chance for anything tropical to make its way towards the CONUS in the immediate future. The high over the Central/SE CONUS seems very solid attm, so anything getting too far north would be steered west at the surface, and would be under a lot of shear.
Just IMHO.
Strange thing is that is not too wet here in Grand Cayman. We've had under an inch of rain in the last 6 hours.
But man - who turned the lights off !
We'll see what the day brings, but it feels like Dean last year that just brushed us without leaving a drop of the wet stuff.
Unfortunately not so much for the people of Central America. My heart goes out to them.
Good morning bollidear...looks like a wet day for the Caymans.
Fri, 30 May 2008 10:31:21
Alma brings torrential rains to Central America
Tropical storm Alma, the first cyclone of the Americans hurricane season, has hit Nicaragua's Pacific coast, claiming one civilian life.
The severe storm toppled trees and ripped roofs of homes on Thursday and urged some 35,000 residence to evacuate the area.
Alma made landfall Thursday on Costa Rica's Pacific Coast and blew through to Nicaragua.
One civilian was killed in the coastal fishing village of Masachapa when he was electrocuted by downed high-tension wires, said the head of the national defense forces.
The tropical storm warning was in effect for the Pacific Coast of Central America, including Nicaragua, Honduras and El Salvador, said the Miami-based US National Hurricane Centre (NHC).
Looking at the imagery, it does appear that the heavy rains between Jamaica and the Yucatan are a part of the larger circulation associated with Alma. Wouldn't that serve to reinforce / strengthen Alma's circulation? Also, it looks to me like at least a portion of Alma's COC is hanging out over the Gulf of Honduras. This could account for the wrapping in of those larger storm cells. The centre does seem to be moving west instead of east now, but maybe the models were right about something eventually making it to the Bay of Campeche.
It ceratinly looks like it..but fingers crossed
mark 18.7n/82.3w
movement 1.5e by 3.5 n
if convection countinues to build during the day we may have something here
What happened last night? I think I missed it but did everyone turn nasty or what?
Is all that moisture from Alma heading north or is it going to dissipate quickly???
Yesterday was the first time in a while I used my - button. I'm going to - or ! the people who come in and make specific ad hominem attacks. I was pleased to see Drak brushed off somebody yesterday; unfortunately others didn't. Some other people managed to disagree without calling each other "stoopid", which is what SHOULD be able to happen all the time. If everybody focuses the comments on the weather instead of on the person commenting, we'd have a relatively ban-free season.
Sure looks like we'll have more to talk about than each other . . .
True that, Ike. Your views will always be highly valued by me.
BBL...Kids to rouse!
As i suggested yesterday and called a blob watcher i still think something is going to develop out of this......this is not Alma but a seperate system that is feeding from the moisture of Alma.
Two things, TS.
1, Being called a blobwatcher is actually a compliment LOL. It's the blobwatchers who get to see the cyclogenesis.
2, I'm not convinced the blob is separate from the broad circulation I'm associating with Alma. Did u look at that image u posted as a loop? I just did, and it really seems to me that all the TS clusters in that area are circulating around the same point.
1019...I just avoided posting.........had work to do anyway.....
I hope whatever it is, it comes straight north and gives me rain this weekend in SW FL.
Link
What's up with the African blob? Haven't had a chance to look.
I noticed the Twave also. I'm just thinking it got sucked in rather than the other way around . . .:o)
1028. cajunkid 7:52 AM EDT on May 30, 2008
What gets me is how everyone wants to torch who ever doesn't agree with the self appointed experts on here.
I think that's a bit excessive, cajun. There are lots of bloggers who don't fire up at people they disagree with. I agree with you, though, that there are too many posters who snipe at people, making every comment a put-down instead of reasoning about the weather. However, if you have valid reasoning for your opinion and don't get sucked into the "you-say, I-say", the weather will soon prove them wrong.
BTW, are we having CROW on the menu this season, or will another dish be served?
NWS Melbourne:
AN UPSTREAM SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS SHOWN MOVING ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS THU AND WE WILL HAVE TO SEE IF THIS FEATURE IS FAR ENOUGH
SOUTH TO BEGIN LIFTING QUASI STATIONARY TROPICAL LOW OVER CENTRAL
AMERICA. THESE EARLY SEASON SYSTEMS CAN MEANDER OVER THE TROPICAL
LATITUDES FOR LONG PERIODS OF TIME BEFORE SUBTROPICAL RIDGING
BREAKS DOWN ENOUGH TO INDUCE A NORTHWARD MOTION.
It does make for an interesting opening to the TS season, considering that if something DOES come up from that blob it's likely to do so on the first day of the season . . .
Ingredients
2 medium onions
2 fresh chilies chopped
2 ribs celery
3 cloves garlic minced
¼ pound butter
16oz. chicken broth
1 can whole tomatoes
1 small can tomato paste
8oz. ketchup
1/8 teaspoon white pepper
1/2 tablespoon Cajun seasoning
1 tablespoons hot pepper sauce
1/2 tablespoons garlic sauce
1/4 tablespoon sugar
1/2 teaspoon Tabasco sauce
1/2 tablespoons Worcestershire sauce
1/4 teaspoon salt
1/8 teaspoon freshly ground black pepper
1 teaspoon chopped fresh thyme
1 tablespoon fresh squeezed lemon juice
1 pound (12 pieces, or so) crow breast chopped into bite-sized pieces
Preparation
Brown the crow breasts in a skillet with butter or oil. When browned, place them in a Sauté onion, celery, chilies and garlic in butter until tender. Add the above ingredients and all of the remaining ingredients to a crock pot and cook on low for 6-7 hours.
To serve, heap about 1 cup of rice in the center of the plate, and ladle a generous amount of the sauce around it. Garnish with fresh chopped parsley
I agree with you. I was watching last evening and felt that way then. I examined all the sat loops and it seemed to me it was like watching a taffy pull.
The two systems seemed to be pulling apart from each other.
I did not then nor still rule out the effects of TS Alma from allowing further developement. Still, ... a curious blob, no?
Figure 1 - Latest Visible Satellite Imagery Showing Caribbean (Source: Tropical RAMSDIS Online 2008)
If you take a close look at satellite imagery in the Gulf of Honduras, you will see a low-level circulation. It appears that this is Alma's circulation. Now, you will see some cyclonic turning developing in the new feature that looks quite impressive on satellite, but remains rather disorganized. We will need to see where the upper-level high that developed over Alma heads, but it has been moving northeastward for the past 24 hours. You guys may be correct in saying that we could see a possible invest from this disturbance.
Quick update from the Caymans.
Althought the blob in the NW Caribbean looks ominous, current conditions do not suggest anything forming within it. Surface pressure is high at 1014.9mb and rising and winds are 12 mph from the SE.
We have received 1.75 inches of rain on the South coast where I live in the last 24 hrs.
The high pressure that was over Alma is now centered over the Gulf of Honduras providing favourable conditions aloft in this area.
So far nothing looks to be imminent
just a quick catch up while at work to see what is going on. Will be back later.
Keep an eye on things and "play nice" please!
don't want to have to put my "ignore" button into use so early in the season! LOL I do enjoy reading your comments and opinions.
Have a great Friday.
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