TD 15? And, Katrina: an unnatural disaster

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 2:38 PM GMT on September 05, 2005

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Two disturbances to watch off of the coast of Florida
The important threat in the tropics today is a large area of disturbed weather extending from Miami eastward over the Bahama Islands. A small circulation center, visible on winds from the QuikSCAT satellite, has developed in association with this disturbance, about 50 miles east of Ft. Lauderdale, FL. Shear values are still probably a little too high--about 10 knots--to permit a tropical depression to form in this region today. However, the shear is forecast to decrease, and a tropical depression could form Tuesday or Wednesday. The computer models are less agressive developing this system today, but still indicate a tropical storm could form here and very slowly move northwards along the coast of Florida towards the Carolinas.

A second disturbance with a well-defined circulation visible on both visible satellite images and QuikSCAT data is located about 600 miles east of Cape Canaveral, Florida. A concentrated area of deep convection has developed on the south and east sides of the circulation center. There is no convection over the center, which would have to happen before the system can be classified as tropical depression. Highest winds observed by the QuikSCAT satellite are about 20 knots. Shear values are about 10 knots, which is marginal for development, but the shear is likely to decrease some today and tomorrow, and this system has a good chance of becoming Tropical Depression 15. The system is expected to move slowly northwestward and meander in the area between Bermuda and the Carolinas.


Figure 1.Forecast track of tropical low 600 miles east of Cape Canaveral, FL.

African tropical waves
The tropical wave we've been watching cross the Atlantic for the past week is still out there, 300 miles east of the islands. This system has now moved far enough north that it may have a chance to develop later in the week as it moves through the Caribbean Sea.

A huge low pressure system accompanied by a large cloud of Saharan dust moved off of Africa yesterday. The dry air associated with the African dust will inhibit any development of this low.

Hurricane Maria
Hurricane Maria is a pretty sight on satellite images, with a large, well-formed eye. She may continue to intensify and reach Category 3 status by tomorrow as she heads northward and then northeastward out to sea. Expect Maria to die by Friday when cold water and wind shear take their toll.

Jeff Masters

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736. killdevilmax
3:01 PM GMT on September 06, 2005
Got 20-25 NE and 9' seas on the outer banks.
Member Since: August 28, 2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 322
735. weatherdude65
1:17 PM GMT on September 06, 2005
If it is moving at all, I think it has a drift to the N and NW.
734. stormydee
1:17 PM GMT on September 06, 2005
new update...talk to you there...
Member Since: August 25, 2005 Posts: 39 Comments: 517
733. stormydee
1:16 PM GMT on September 06, 2005
gonna be wet....I am watching that low drag all that moisture towards FL....does anyone know which way is it going? Or is it gonna stay statinary for awhile?
Member Since: August 25, 2005 Posts: 39 Comments: 517
732. weatherdude65
1:14 PM GMT on September 06, 2005
I agree with you stormy. Seems like the weather here will only be getting worse over the next few days.
731. weatherdude65
1:10 PM GMT on September 06, 2005
Just checked...seas 20 miles out are at 7 ft. 120 miles out they are 8.5ft
730. stormydee
1:09 PM GMT on September 06, 2005
I think by 11Am, we'll have ourselves another t.d. off FL
Member Since: August 25, 2005 Posts: 39 Comments: 517
729. stormydee
1:08 PM GMT on September 06, 2005
ya, wasn't a beach weekend, didn't even try it...and the clouds are so tropical looking, lined up, towering very low to very high, it is awsome to look at when its not dangerous....
Member Since: August 25, 2005 Posts: 39 Comments: 517
728. weatherdude65
1:06 PM GMT on September 06, 2005
I live on the east coast of Fl....last night had a line of heavy rain come thru with gusts up to about 30-35 mph. The wind all day yesterday was blowing about 15-20 mph out of the NE. Area looks alot better on radar this morning...I see a depression by this afternoon.
727. weatherguy03
1:01 PM GMT on September 06, 2005
Gonna check out the seas after work today to see whats happening..but a prolonged NE wind event for the coast here is sometimes worse then anything we can get, for beach erosion and coastal flooding.
Member Since: July 5, 2005 Posts: 592 Comments: 29708
726. weatherguy03
12:59 PM GMT on September 06, 2005
Boy after looking at all the models this one is gonna be a hard one to forecast..lol...the basic word is SLOW..this one is not moving fast anytime soon...most models have a slow drift to the NW or N..No matter what happens here, on the E.Coast of Fl. the NE wind event we have now is going to continue for awhile as seas are now 8 to 10 ft. off shore, and beach erosion will start to begin today.
Member Since: July 5, 2005 Posts: 592 Comments: 29708
725. stormydee
12:58 PM GMT on September 06, 2005
everyone sleeping or just nothing to say...I'll tell ya, I have been w/out internet this weekend, but I didn't need it to tell me there was something out there off the east coast of FL.
Member Since: August 25, 2005 Posts: 39 Comments: 517
724. IKE
12:55 PM GMT on September 06, 2005
The Fowey Rocks,Fl. buoy has a NW wind at 25 mph. Bet it's classified as a depression by this afternoon.
Member Since: June 9, 2005 Posts: 23 Comments: 37860
723. weatherguy03
12:49 PM GMT on September 06, 2005
Oh yeah its spinning...Link..we will see if they find a low level center..looks like one developing..they may wait until aircraft goes out this afternoon to see what they have.
Member Since: July 5, 2005 Posts: 592 Comments: 29708
722. stormydee
12:42 PM GMT on September 06, 2005
thanks weatherguy for the link...I'll be watching ALL DAY!
Member Since: August 25, 2005 Posts: 39 Comments: 517
721. stormydee
12:41 PM GMT on September 06, 2005
Link
it is spinning, tell me its not?! Oh boy, gonna be a busy week
Member Since: August 25, 2005 Posts: 39 Comments: 517
720. stormydee
12:36 PM GMT on September 06, 2005
too much to catch up on, but will try before dr masters gives a new blog...since it is no longer a depression but Nate...it is kind a gusty here..and the satellite image from miami shows some spinning....
Member Since: August 25, 2005 Posts: 39 Comments: 517
719. IKE
12:36 PM GMT on September 06, 2005
Looks like a tropical depression is forming off of the SE coast of Florida with some bandings features and decent convection.

Joe Bastardi thinks the system could get in the gulf and be a headache for areas that don't need it....LA/Mississippi?
Member Since: June 9, 2005 Posts: 23 Comments: 37860
718. weatherguy03
12:34 PM GMT on September 06, 2005
Wow looking at WV loop...Link..it looks like that S shear that was affecting that storm yesterday has really diminished..should have depression soon if they can find a low level center.
Member Since: July 5, 2005 Posts: 592 Comments: 29708
717. weatherguy03
12:30 PM GMT on September 06, 2005
1009 MB LOW IS CENTERED OVER THE N BAHAMA ISLANDS OFF THE
COAST OF S FLORIDA NEAR 26N78W AND IS NEARLY STATIONARY. THE
CENTER OF CIRCULATION IS NOT THAT WELL DEFINED ON THE MIAMI
RADAR IMAGERY BUT DOES APPEAR TO BECOMING BETTER ORGANIZED OVER
THE PAST 6 HOURS. LOW IS BENEATH THE W SIDE OF A BROAD UPPER
HIGH PRODUCING S SHEAR OVER THE SYSTEM. CONVECTION HAS DEEPENED
OVER THE PAST 6 HOURS. SCATTERED STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN
30/45 NM OF LINE 26N77W-28N78W. SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED
STRONG CONVECTION COVERS THE AREA WITHIN 75 NM OF LINE FROM
25N79W-31N76W INCLUDING THE ISLANDS OF ABACO AND GRAND BAHAMA.
THE LOW IS EXPECTED TO DRIFT N TO NW BENEATH AN UPPER LEVEL HIGH
AND BE NEAR OR OVER FLORIDA DURING THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.
TROPICAL CYCLONE DEVELOPMENT IS POSSIBLE WITHIN THE NEXT DAY OR
SO AS UPPER LEVEL WINDS BECOME MORE FAVORABLE.

From 8Am update.
Member Since: July 5, 2005 Posts: 592 Comments: 29708
716. IKE
12:27 PM GMT on September 06, 2005
Yup....Joe Bastardi is on accuweather.com...plus he's on the local AM radio station here in Defuniak Springs, Fl on the Florida Network.
Member Since: June 9, 2005 Posts: 23 Comments: 37860
715. southbeachdude
11:49 AM GMT on September 06, 2005
where is a good link for Joe Bastardi.... accuweather.com?
Member Since: July 29, 2005 Posts: 2 Comments: 697
714. IKE
11:34 AM GMT on September 06, 2005
Joe Bastardi thinks the system east of Florida will hang off of the east coast for the next few days...develop into a tropical storm and eventually head west across Florida into the gulf.

He has it at 26N...78W.
Member Since: June 9, 2005 Posts: 23 Comments: 37860
713. StPeteGirl
11:32 AM GMT on September 06, 2005
Thanks TVwxman, that make sense.
712. rxse7en
11:09 AM GMT on September 06, 2005
Nate sucks. Bring on TD16.
Member Since: August 21, 2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 530
711. killdevilmax
10:54 AM GMT on September 06, 2005
Man that looks like a hurricane tonight!
Member Since: August 28, 2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 322
710. TVwxman
10:30 AM GMT on September 06, 2005
ITCZ is the (Inter Tropical Convergence Zone) just n and s of the equator. It's where the winds from both sides of the equator converge and we see very light winds and thunderstorms.
709. StPeteGirl
10:10 AM GMT on September 06, 2005
Maybe a dumb question, but what is itcz?
708. leftyy420
9:52 AM GMT on September 06, 2005
yeah wild, thats whta i was saying 2 hrs ago. we should have a td by 11am update or they might wait till the recon flight but we will se td 16 tomm. prety sure of that
Member Since: August 24, 2005 Posts: 35 Comments: 1987
707. willdd1979
9:48 AM GMT on September 06, 2005
this is taken from the NWS website at 5:30am Tuesday morning

SATELLITE AND RADAR DATA...ALONG WITH NEARBY SURFACE OBSERVATIONS...
INDICATE A NEARLY STATIONARY LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM LOCATED OVER THE
NORTHWEST BAHAMAS HAS BECOME BETTER DEFINED THIS MORNING. SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE INCREASED AND BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED...AND
CONDITIONS ARE GRADUALLY BECOMING MORE FAVORABLE FOR A TROPICAL
DEPRESSION TO FORM LATER TODAY. A NOAA RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT IS
SCHEDULED TO INVESTIGATE THE SYSTEM THIS AFTERNOON. INTERESTS IN
THE BAHAMAS AND FLORIDA SHOULD CLOSELY MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS
SYSTEM OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS.
706. killdevilmax
9:45 AM GMT on September 06, 2005
cool thanks and sleep tight.
Member Since: August 28, 2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 322
705. leftyy420
9:44 AM GMT on September 06, 2005
it should be fine kill. nate will be moving slow for the next 3-5 days befor he gets whipped out so your ship should be well ahead of hime and maria will be long gone. shoulf not be a problem
Member Since: August 24, 2005 Posts: 35 Comments: 1987
704. killdevilmax
9:42 AM GMT on September 06, 2005
thanks. I'm flying but if the ship can't leave I get delayed.
Member Since: August 28, 2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 322
703. leftyy420
9:42 AM GMT on September 06, 2005
well good night yall. should wake up to td 16. man what a year. and we still have 2 months to go wow
Member Since: August 24, 2005 Posts: 35 Comments: 1987
702. leftyy420
9:38 AM GMT on September 06, 2005
kill, most ships know how to navigate around trouble areas. by time u left only problem would be nate as maria will accelerate quickly away. but its on you. i would go as nate should not be a big problem for sometime. but as i said thats on you
Member Since: August 24, 2005 Posts: 35 Comments: 1987
701. leftyy420
9:37 AM GMT on September 06, 2005
here is what i was sayng earlier but from the nhc


SATELLITE AND RADAR DATA...ALONG WITH NEARBY SURFACE OBSERVATIONS...
INDICATE A NEARLY STATIONARY LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM LOCATED OVER THE
NORTHWEST BAHAMAS HAS BECOME BETTER DEFINED THIS MORNING. SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE INCREASED AND BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED...AND
CONDITIONS ARE GRADUALLY BECOMING MORE FAVORABLE FOR A TROPICAL
DEPRESSION TO FORM LATER TODAY. A NOAA RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT IS
SCHEDULED TO INVESTIGATE THE SYSTEM THIS AFTERNOON. INTERESTS IN
THE BAHAMAS AND FLORIDA SHOULD CLOSELY MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS
SYSTEM OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS.
Member Since: August 24, 2005 Posts: 35 Comments: 1987
700. killdevilmax
9:26 AM GMT on September 06, 2005
good morning lefty,
what do you think about a ship leaving Baltimore on the 7th heading for Europe (Med)? it doesn't look like it would be a good idea to me. Earlier I thought it could fall in behind Maria about that time but Nate is developing to fast for that. What are your thoughts?
Member Since: August 28, 2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 322
699. leftyy420
9:12 AM GMT on September 06, 2005
wow the system off of florida is really taking off. banding is very evedint on radar. we should see this becomd td16 later today/ maybe at 11am update
Member Since: August 24, 2005 Posts: 35 Comments: 1987
698. killdevilmax
8:39 AM GMT on September 06, 2005
Did Nate really start to grow or is it an anomaly from the sat blackout? trying to see a rotation. You'd think they would have a floater on Nate.
Member Since: August 28, 2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 322
697. subtropic
7:50 AM GMT on September 06, 2005
You're right. Feeder bands are a problem. I just need to motivate. Nice talking to you tonight and again, I apologize if I came off sounding rude earlier. I just wanted to let you guys know that I am familiar with this. I know you do a lot of hand holding here which is cool. If I can be of any service to you likewise, just ask.
Member Since: August 29, 2002 Posts: 209 Comments: 4434
696. leftyy420
7:41 AM GMT on September 06, 2005
dude go to home depot. they usually rent stuff like that and those bands from canes can be a sob sometimes
Member Since: August 24, 2005 Posts: 35 Comments: 1987
695. subtropic
7:39 AM GMT on September 06, 2005
yeah. I'm gonna need it. If one of these bands gets stuck over us, the ceiling is gonna go. I have GOT to find a ladder and get the tarp up. I have been saying that for 3 days now. Can you tell I have no real desire to do it? Damned Dennis! Didn't even come close to us and I am still dealing with damage from one lousy feeder band. I am just finishing rebuilding a room from Francis and Jean.
Member Since: August 29, 2002 Posts: 209 Comments: 4434
694. leftyy420
7:35 AM GMT on September 06, 2005
lol good luck man.
Member Since: August 24, 2005 Posts: 35 Comments: 1987
693. subtropic
7:32 AM GMT on September 06, 2005
looks like the heavier rain is setting up to pass to my south, although I see more devloping and getiing ready to swing around the top. that probably wont miss me. I should probably try to get some sleep. Once the roof starts leaking, it's hard to sleep with all that dripping!
Member Since: August 29, 2002 Posts: 209 Comments: 4434
692. leftyy420
7:29 AM GMT on September 06, 2005
cool
Member Since: August 24, 2005 Posts: 35 Comments: 1987
691. subtropic
7:27 AM GMT on September 06, 2005
Lake Worth.
Member Since: August 29, 2002 Posts: 209 Comments: 4434
690. leftyy420
7:26 AM GMT on September 06, 2005
where u at?
Member Since: August 24, 2005 Posts: 35 Comments: 1987
689. subtropic
7:23 AM GMT on September 06, 2005
yeah. that leading edge of rain is just to my south off shore.
Member Since: August 29, 2002 Posts: 209 Comments: 4434
688. leftyy420
7:17 AM GMT on September 06, 2005
but from what we can see the banding is starting to form .
Member Since: August 24, 2005 Posts: 35 Comments: 1987
687. leftyy420
7:15 AM GMT on September 06, 2005
its cool sub. i thought maybe i came across rude lol. i was pointing that the storm might be further east and may all ready have a center radar sign and we can't see it cause its out of range. the radar circulation is better defined that a few hrs ago so we know atlest the low is probly a little stronger than befor
Member Since: August 24, 2005 Posts: 35 Comments: 1987
686. leftyy420
7:13 AM GMT on September 06, 2005
yeah and a more eastern storm will probly skirt the coast and impact ga/sc area
Member Since: August 24, 2005 Posts: 35 Comments: 1987

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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.