Mile-wide tornado smashes Windsor, Colorado; plus, hurricane season commentary

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 1:23 PM GMT on May 23, 2008

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A mile-wide tornado swept through Colorado between 11am and noon yesterday, ripping the roofs off buildings, tossing cars into the air, and killing at least one person in Weld County, northeast of Denver. Hail up to 2.75" in diameter accompanied the storm, which took an unusual north-northwesterly track , parallel to the Rocky Mountains north of Denver. Hardest hit was the town of Windsor, between Fort Collins and Greely, where damage appeared to be at least EF3. A local TV station took some impressive live video of the tornado, and a wunderground web cam video in Windsor, Colorado (Figure 1) caught the funnel as it passed east of the camera.


Figure 1.Webcam view looking east at 11:45am MDT in Windsor, Colorado as the tornado passed by. Note the golf ball-sized hail covering the ground. Image credit: windsorweather.com.

The Weather Underground's tornado expert, Rob Carver, had this explanation of yesterday's tornadoes:

Two low pressure systems over the Western U.S. were the cause of the severe weather outbreak of May 22. A strong upper-level low over the Great Basin formed a surface low in the lee of the Rockies, and brought a strong southerly mid-level jet over the Plains of Colorado and Kansas. As the surface low formed, it brought warm moist air northwards, forming a warm front. This warm air moved westward, rising with the terrain, causing thunderstorms to form. Once these storms formed, the juxtaposition of easterly flow at the surface with southerly flow aloft (i.e., wind shear) produced significant spin in the horizontal direction, which was tilted by the storms to vertical spin, which triggered the formation of tornadic thunderstorms. This movement of the warm front up the slope of the Rockies to help trigger tornadic thunderstorms is a rare occurrence.



Figure 2. Radar reflectivity image (top) of the Windsor, Colorado tornado at 11:45am MDT May 22, 2008. Note the classic hook-shaped echo associated with the tornado. Bottom: Doppler velocity image of the tornado, showing a small core of red and blue colors right next to each other, denoting strong winds towards and away from the radar, the classic signature of a tornado vortex. For those interested, we've saved an animation of the reflectivity and Doppler velocity.

Severe weather forecast
Severe weather is expected today over Kansas, Nebraska, and surrounding states. NOAA's Storm Prediction Center has placed portions of this area under its "Moderate Risk" category for severe weather, one step below its highest level of concern, "High Risk". Yesterday was also a "Moderate Risk" day, which SPC later upgraded to "High Risk" once the tornadoes started pounding Colorado. More severe weather is expected Saturday and Sunday over the Midwest as the upper-level low pressure system responsible moves slowly eastward. The Weather Underground Severe Weather page and Tornado page and WebCam page are good places to go to follow the severe weather. Also, tune in to the chase accounts and awesome storm photos from Wunderblogger Mike Theiss, who was in Kansas yesterday, and has posted many spectacular photos of yesterday's storms. According to Mike's blog:

Today Cloud 9 Tours saw 4 tornadoes and ONE developing almost overhead. We experienced winds over 100mph from the circulation of the meso that passed overhead as a cone tornado developed. Stay Tuned....


Possible development in the Eastern Pacific late next week
The past four days, the ECMWF model has been predicting the formation of a tropical storm in the the Eastern Pacific, just off the coast of Guatemala, around May 29. The GFS model has also been predicting something might develop, but in the Western Caribbean near Mexico's Yucatan Peninsula. The GFS has been rather inconsistent with its handling of this potential storm, and I am inclined to discount its forecast--especially since last night's long range runs of the NOGAPS, Canadian, and UKMET models all show development in the Eastern Pacific, not the Caribbean. All five models predict a northward shift in the jet stream and substantial relaxation in wind shear over the Eastern Pacific and Western Caribbean next week. It is common to see May tropical storms in the Eastern Pacific, and it would not be a surprise to see something develop there. I'd put the odds of something popping up in the Western Caribbean or Gulf of Mexico at less than 10%, though.

NOAA's seasonal hurricane forecast
NOAA issued its annual seasonal hurricane forecast yesterday, which I discussed in detail in yesterday's blog entry. Yesterday's forecast came out with a little more uncertainty attached to it than previous forecasts, which is a good thing. The media attention and fanfare that accompanies these forecasts is rather excessive, given the low skill they have. In fact, we don't even know if the NOAA forecasts have ANY mathematical skill, because they've never released a verification study of their forecasts. I doubt that the skill is very high--as Eric Berger of the Houston Chronicle pointed out in a blog yesterday, NOAA has blown its forecast of Accumulated Cyclone Energy (ACE) each of the last six years. NOAA held its usual press conference to announce the forecast; this year, it was held at the home of the NOAA Hurricane Hunter aircraft, MacDill AFB in Tampa. The NOAA dignitaries present said all the right things, preaching the need for preparedness regardless of the forecast for the upcoming hurricane season. Still, I wonder if NOAA might be hurting themselves by making such a public spectacle over the release of a forecast that no one knows the accuracy of, and has performed poorly by some measures in recent years. I do like the fact they are issuing public hurricane forecasts, as I expect their accuracy and value will improve in coming years, but they're definitely not worth the attention they're getting at present.

Jeff Masters

Tornado1 (kd7tda)
One of several tornados. This one was near Grainfield, KS
Tornado1
Tornado Damage 3 (jlg)
Damage from today's Tornado in Windsor, Colorado
Tornado Damage 3
()
Mean Looking Meso with Cone Tornado (MikeTheiss)
Photo os a wallcloud with a developing tornado passing just to the north of our location on May 22nd, 2008. Photo copyright Mike Theiss
Mean Looking Meso with Cone Tornado

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1757. weathersp
2:19 PM EDT on May 25, 2008
Why can't we be friends? Oh why Can't we be friend's.. :D
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
1756. Bamatracker
6:23 PM GMT on May 25, 2008
woohoo!!! i wishcast!!! i wishcast!!! :)
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1755. Drakoen
6:22 PM GMT on May 25, 2008
...TROPICAL WAVES...
TROPICAL WAVE IS ANALYZED OVER LAND N OF 13N ALONG 89W/90W AND
REMAINS NEARLY STATIONARY. THE WAVE IS EMBEDDED IN A VERY BROAD
AREA OF CYCLONIC TURNING...WITH WESTERLY WINDS NOTED TO THE
SOUTH AND WEST OF THE WAVE. THESE WESTERLY WINDS CONTINUE TO
MAKE THE WAVE DIFFICULT TO DETECT AS A DISTINCT FEATURE AT THIS
TIME. MOST OF THE STRONG CONVECTION THAT WAS ASSOCIATED WITH THE
WAVE IS NOW WELL WEST OF THE WAVE...GENERALLY WITHIN 180 NM OF
THE ITCZ BETWEEN 93W AND 102W. GLOBAL MODELS ARE FORECASTING A
BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE TO DEVELOP IN THE AREA OF THE WAVE
OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.
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1754. CaneAddict
6:13 PM GMT on May 25, 2008

1717. scottsvb 5:51 PM GMT on May 25, 2008
david your getting mostly the wrong info if you want to be educated here.. most professional Mets arent on these and these are mostly guesscasters or wishcasters. Its a fun place for speculation. Some are good non mets on here but alot spot out every model and believe "its the 1" cause that model eigther shows the storm getting stronger or heading their way.

Remember models change from run to run, soo many dynamics go into each run. A system that isnt developed yet gives us no idea on where it may go cause only 100 miles off can pick up a trough or weakness and take it off the long range run. Models are good forecasting where a area "might" develop within 3 days. After that the % rate of the models drops.

Any info you or anyone needs is best learned from the NHC or Mets.
Action: | Ignore User


How can you even make a speculation like this if you are almost never on the blogs, The truth is completely opposite of what you said. Mostly everyone here are very intelligent when it comes to tropical weather or weather in general. Some i can trust more than actual meterologist, Also quite a few here have met degrees.....There is only a few that so called "wish cast" or newly added to the dictionary "guess cast". Those folks only come around when a category 5 is heading to Europe but they want it to come to Atlanta Georgia.....LOL. So overall this blog is full of very knowledgable folks here, very few wish-casters and guess-casters...None of us just JUMP on the models and say this is the one, The folks that do that are just excited that the hurricane season is here just about.....IT is alright to get excited here. We are not broadcasting on T.V.....Were not official, all just speculators! Have a good one all, I am off for a bit.
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1753. scottsvb
6:21 PM GMT on May 25, 2008
Yes IKE, in florida! anyways gotta run.. ttyls
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1752. hahaguy
2:20 PM EDT on May 25, 2008
when bloggers attack , in a theatre near you. lol
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1751. MasterForecaster
6:17 PM GMT on May 25, 2008
Honestly, why pay 10$ to go to the movies when I can sit in front of my computer and watch this for free. This story of this blog would make an amazing movie.

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1750. FLWeatherFreak91
2:16 PM EDT on May 25, 2008
From the 1:40 Tampa forecast discussion:

.LONG TERM (TUESDAY NIGHT - SUNDAY)...NOT MUCH TO TALK ABOUT IN THE
EXTENDED PORTION OF THE FORECAST. WE WILL CONTINUE TO DOWNPLAY THE
AREA OF LOW PRESSURE THAT THE GFS TAKES ACROSS THE YUCATAN PENINSULA
NEXT SUNDAY. THE ECMWF HAS A SIMILAR TRACK...BUT MAINTAINS ENOUGH
RIDGING TO KEEP THE PRESSURE GRADIENT SOUTH OF OUR REGION. THE GFS
REALLY TIGHTENS UP THE GRADIENT OFFSHORE SOUTH FLORIDA LATE IN THE
PERIOD...WHICH LOOKS A BIT UNREALISTIC.
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1749. Boatofacar
6:16 PM GMT on May 25, 2008
Yes..Jp..i think it will!
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1747. Drakoen
6:12 PM GMT on May 25, 2008
Clash of personalities!


Can't we all just get along? lmao...
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1746. Weather456
2:10 PM AST on May 25, 2008
I am hearing 6 days, 7 days...that is when its in the Gulf.....what happen to the next 48-72 hrs. Genesis begins wed/thu
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1744. Boatofacar
6:06 PM GMT on May 25, 2008
Im working on a model to predict the amount of petty bickering that will occur on the blog this year...however, im sure you all can forcast its outcome.....
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1743. Weather456
2:07 PM AST on May 25, 2008
ASCAT confirms the circulation seen on visible imagery and 850 vort.
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1742. weathersp
2:06 PM EDT on May 25, 2008
1741. hahaguy 2:06 PM EDT on May 25, 2008
ok i'm just here observing and i can see we we are arguing and its not even hurricane season lol.


Does 6 days away count?
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1741. hahaguy
2:05 PM EDT on May 25, 2008
ok i'm just here observing and i can see we are arguing and its not even hurricane season lol.
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1740. IKE
1:04 PM CDT on May 25, 2008
scottsvb...aren't you a met? I remember you from last year.
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1739. Drakoen
6:04 PM GMT on May 25, 2008
1734. scottsvb 6:03 PM GMT on May 25, 2008
Drakoen Im sure you ment western right?


Western Central Florida if I need to get that specific with you.

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1738. scottsvb
6:03 PM GMT on May 25, 2008
I didnt say you were agreeing with me jp...but I did agree with you.
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1737. Weather456
1:54 PM AST on May 25, 2008
.
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1736. weathersp
2:00 PM EDT on May 25, 2008
Also... The UKMET only goes out to 72hrs thus it still has time for it to cross over.
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1735. IKE
1:02 PM CDT on May 25, 2008
1730. scottsvb 1:01 PM CDT on May 25, 2008
Jp is right... NAM model isnt a tropical model to use. Infact thats why we call it the NAM=NorthAmericanModel


99% of the people on here already know that.
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1734. scottsvb
6:01 PM GMT on May 25, 2008
Drakoen Im sure you ment western right?
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1732. Drakoen
6:00 PM GMT on May 25, 2008
This should tell you the uncertainty with the 500mb trough in the Central Plains. The NOGAPS 12z wants to take the system into Central Florida.
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1731. Orcasystems
5:57 PM GMT on May 25, 2008
1717. scottsvb 5:51 PM GMT on May 25, 2008 Hide this comment.
david your getting mostly the wrong info if you want to be educated here.. most professional Mets arent on these and these are mostly guesscasters or wishcasters. Its a fun place for speculation. Some are good non mets on here but alot spot out every model and believe "its the 1" cause that model eigther shows the storm getting stronger or heading their way.



I don't know why, but I found this posting to be rather rude? Granted, there are some of the above on here..but I would take Storm W's views over most if not all "Pro" casters.

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1730. scottsvb
5:59 PM GMT on May 25, 2008
Jp is right... NAM model isnt a tropical model to use. Infact thats why we call it the NAM=NorthAmericanModel
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
1729. IKE
12:58 PM CDT on May 25, 2008
1721. jphurricane2006 12:56 PM CDT on May 25, 2008
lol IKE

so IKE when was it that you and everyone else said you were professionals and that your word was gospel? LOL

Please tell me cuz I missed it LOL


Yeah really...I see this blog is still the same in 2008 as it was last year...the year before...the year before that...lol.
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1728. Drakoen
5:59 PM GMT on May 25, 2008
The NOGAPS 12z run is showing a pretty decent system in the Central Caribbean.
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1727. scottsvb
5:57 PM GMT on May 25, 2008
the area in the sw carribean now will dissapate. The pressures are too high there right now for any development until weds at least.
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1725. hahaguy
1:58 PM EDT on May 25, 2008
the ukmet is off having some fish and chips and a nice pint ... lol
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1724. Drakoen
5:52 PM GMT on May 25, 2008
The stubborn UKMET doesn't join the concensus...
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1723. scottsvb
5:54 PM GMT on May 25, 2008
The Nam model is pretty much pathetic in the tropics... CMC has a horrible % rate of accuracy. The best models are the GFS and GFDL with the Nogaps and Ukmet following together.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
1722. hahaguy
1:55 PM EDT on May 25, 2008
1720. IKE 1:54 PM EDT on May 25, 2008
1717. scottsvb 12:51 PM CDT on May 25, 2008
david your getting mostly the wrong info if you want to be educated here.. most professional Mets arent on these and these are mostly guesscasters or wishcasters. Its a fun place for speculation. Some are good non mets on here but alot spot out every model and believe "its the 1" cause that model eigther shows the storm getting stronger or heading their way.

Remember models change from run to run, soo many dynamics go into each run. A system that isnt developed yet gives us no idea on where it may go cause only 100 miles off can pick up a trough or weakness and take it off the long range run. Models are good forecasting where a area "might" develop within 3 days. After that the % rate of the models drops.

Any info you or anyone needs is best learned from the NHC or Mets

yawn........



lol
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1720. IKE
12:53 PM CDT on May 25, 2008
1717. scottsvb 12:51 PM CDT on May 25, 2008
david your getting mostly the wrong info if you want to be educated here.. most professional Mets arent on these and these are mostly guesscasters or wishcasters. Its a fun place for speculation. Some are good non mets on here but alot spot out every model and believe "its the 1" cause that model eigther shows the storm getting stronger or heading their way.

Remember models change from run to run, soo many dynamics go into each run. A system that isnt developed yet gives us no idea on where it may go cause only 100 miles off can pick up a trough or weakness and take it off the long range run. Models are good forecasting where a area "might" develop within 3 days. After that the % rate of the models drops.

Any info you or anyone needs is best learned from the NHC or Mets


yawn........
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
1719. Orcasystems
5:52 PM GMT on May 25, 2008
1699. Patrap 5:20 PM GMT on May 25, 2008 Hide this comment.
Mama fed us lotsa grits and butter. Link


There are two things I do not recognize in that picture..so I still have no idea which one it is.. one looks like clam chowder, the other sort of looks like.. I'm not going to say.

1702. HurricaneKing 1:26 PM EDT on May 25, 2008 Hide this comment.
I like the other definition of grits.
Girls Raised In The South.


This one I am also going to leave alone :)


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1718. TerraNova
1:51 PM EDT on May 25, 2008
The 12Z CMC joins the consensus........

Models supporting the Atlantic/EPAC to Atlantic scenerio:
CMC 12z
ECMWF 00z
GFS 12z
NOGAPS 12z

Models supporting the EPAC scenerio:
UKMET 12z
NAM 12z
Member Since: July 30, 2007 Posts: 76 Comments: 4063
1717. scottsvb
5:51 PM GMT on May 25, 2008
david your getting mostly the wrong info if you want to be educated here.. most professional Mets arent on these and these are mostly guesscasters or wishcasters. Its a fun place for speculation. Some are good non mets on here but alot spot out every model and believe "its the 1" cause that model eigther shows the storm getting stronger or heading their way.

Remember models change from run to run, soo many dynamics go into each run. A system that isnt developed yet gives us no idea on where it may go cause only 100 miles off can pick up a trough or weakness and take it off the long range run. Models are good forecasting where a area "might" develop within 3 days. After that the % rate of the models drops.

Any info you or anyone needs is best learned from the NHC or Mets.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
1716. Patrap
12:50 PM CDT on May 25, 2008
Historical Hurricane Tracks Link
Current Storm Information

Please note this site only provides historical information. Visit these recommended websites for current storm information.

The Historical Hurricane Tracks tool is an interactive mapping application that allows you to easily search and display Atlantic Basin and Eastern North Pacific Basin tropical cyclone data.
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 426 Comments: 128676
1715. TerraNova
1:49 PM EDT on May 25, 2008
Member Since: July 30, 2007 Posts: 76 Comments: 4063
1714. Patrap
12:49 PM CDT on May 25, 2008
Hurricane Preparedness Week Link

History teaches that a lack of hurricane awareness and preparation are common threads among all major hurricane disasters. By knowing your vulnerability and what actions you should take, you can reduce the effects of a hurricane disaster. Hurricane Preparedness Week during 2008 will be held May 25th through May 31st.

The goal of this Hurricane Preparedness Web site is to inform the public about the hurricane hazards and provide knowledge which can be used to take ACTION. This information can be used to save lives at work, home, while on the road, or on the water.


Sunday,HURRICANE HISTORY Link
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 426 Comments: 128676
1713. MasterForecaster
5:47 PM GMT on May 25, 2008
cchs do you think you can provide the link to the radar your looking at? I want to take a look and see the rotation your talking about...
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1712. IKE
12:47 PM CDT on May 25, 2008
The 12Z CMC joins the consensus........

Link
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1711. catastropheadjuster
5:37 PM GMT on May 25, 2008
HurricaneKing- G.R.I.T.S Girls Raised In The South That's the good definition for grits. My Daughters softball team was named that. Me and hubby coached it.
Short recess Back to weather.
Sheri
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1710. NorthxCakalaky
5:42 PM GMT on May 25, 2008
Public Information Statement
Statement as of 10:50 am EDT on May 25, 2008


... North Carolina hurricane awareness week...

This week has been declared North Carolina's hurricane awareness
week for 2008. All week long the National Weather Service will be
issuing informative messages to help you prepare for hurricane
season.

Today we will talk about hurricane history and North Carolina.

North Carolina receives more than its share of tropical storms and
hurricanes. Over the past 15 years North Carolina has seen
presidentially declared disasters resulting from hurricanes in
locations from the Outer Banks to the Blue Ridge mountains. No part
of our state has gone unaffected from these giant storms.

Ever since the first expeditions to Roanoke Island in 1586
hurricanes have caused extensive damage to the state. Reliable
tracking and classifications of tropical systems did not begin until
nearly 300 years later in 1886. Since that time over 1000 tropical
systems have formed in the Atlantic Ocean and Gulf of Mexico. Nearly
20 percent these tropical systems passed within 300 miles of North
Carolina or less. Statically the coast of North Carolina can expect
to receive a direct hit from a land falling tropical system once
every 4 years. For the remainder of the state, tropical systems can
bring the threat of heavy rains, flooding and tornadoes nearly every
Summer as tropical system make landfall to our south and then move
north.

Since records have been kept dating back to 1806, around 65 tropical
systems have made direct landfall on the North Carolina coast. Even
more disturbing is the fact around 100 tropical systems have moved
through and impacted the state without actually making landfall
along our coast. North Carolina's unique geography with respect to
its protruding coastline makes the state a favorable target for
hurricanes. Residents living in the eastern half of North Carolina
from Raleigh to the coast stick out in the Atlantic Ocean along the
same longitude as the Florida coast and Bahamas. This geographical
fact makes the coast from Wilmington to Cape Hatteras the most
favorable location for hurricane and tropical storm landfalls.

The most active months for tropical systems in North Carolina are
August and September. However hurricanes have wreaked havoc
as early as late June and as late as mid November. The peak tropical
activity usually occurs in a six week period from mid August to late
September. During active cycles in hurricane activity North Carolina
can experience multiple hurricanes and tropical storms within weeks
of each other. Years when North Carolina has been hit by more than
one tropical system include...

1842
1899
1933
1954 (carol... Edna and hazel)
1955 (connie... diane and ione)
1971 (doria and ginger)
1996 (arthur... Bertha and fran)
1999 (dennis and floyd)
2004 (bonnie, Charley, Gaston, Jeanne, Frances and ivan)
2006 (alberto and ernesto)

Hurricane Hazel remains the most powerful hurricane to ever make
landfall in North Carolina. Hazel struck as a category 4 hurricane
with winds of 144 mph. Since that time hurricane Floyd in 1999
became the costliest hurricane in North Carolina history. Sixty-Six
counties were presidentially declared disaster areas following
Floyd. Total storm losses exceeded six billion dollars. Hurricane
fran in 1996 was the second costliest hurricane in state history.



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1709. TheCaneWhisperer
5:38 PM GMT on May 25, 2008
Any guesses on the rotation in the SW corner of the Caribbean?
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1708. HurricaneKing
1:33 PM EDT on May 25, 2008
Quick question before I go mow the lawn. Isnt it the GFS that always shows highs to strong and is also to quick to weaken them?
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1707. davidw221
5:33 PM GMT on May 25, 2008
The more I read this blog, the more educated I have become, thank you all for your work
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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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