The future of wind shear: will it decrease the number of hurricanes?

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 1:55 PM GMT on May 21, 2008

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Could global warming increase wind shear over the Atlantic, potentially leading to a decrease in the frequency of Atlantic hurricanes? Several modeling studies are now predicting this, and it is a reasonable hypothesis. The most recent study, "Simulated reduction in Atlantic hurricane frequency under twenty-first-century warming conditions", was published Sunday in Nature Geosciences. The authors, led by Tom Knutson of NOAA's GFDL laboratory, showed that global warming may reduce the number of Atlantic tropical storms by 27% and hurricanes by 18% by the end of the century. However, their model also found that the strongest hurricanes would get stronger.

An important reason that their model predicted a decrease in the frequency of Atlantic hurricanes was due to a predicted increase in wind shear. As I explain in my wind shear tutorial, a large change of wind speed with height over a hurricane creates a shearing force that tends to tear the storm apart. The amount of wind shear is critical in determining whether a hurricane can form or survive.

The main sources wind shear over the tropical Atlantic:
1) The jet stream is the primary year-round source of high wind shear over the Atlantic. The jet can have two branches--the main northerly polar jet, and a weaker subtropical jet that blows over the Gulf of Mexico or Caribbean. In winter, the jet stream is far to the south, bringing very high levels of wind shear to the tropical Atlantic. The Caribbean Sea is warm enough year-round to support hurricane formation, but high levels of wind shear from the southerly position of the jet stream prevents wintertime hurricanes from forming. In the summer, the jet stream retreats to the north, but can still loop far enough south to create hurricane-hazardous wind shear.

2) The large-scale tropical atmospheric circulation pattern known as the Walker Circulation (Figure 1) can bring high wind shear to the Atlantic. A weak Walker Circulation brings high wind shear, while a strong Walker Circulation--rising air over the tropics near Australia, combined with sinking air of the coast of South America near Peru--brings weak upper-level winds over the Atlantic, resulting in low levels of wind shear.

3) The presence or absence of an El Niño event has a critical impact on wind shear levels. El Niño events weaken the Walker Circulation, bringing strong upper-level winds out of the west to the Atlantic, creating high wind shear.

4) In summer and fall, Tropical Upper Tropospheric Troughs (TUTTs) and upper-level cold-core low pressure systems ("cold lows") that are cut off from the jet stream often wander through the tropics, bringing high wind shear with them.

5) A strong east-to-west flowing jet of air is frequently found at the southern boundary of the Saharan Air Layer (SAL), a hot, dry region of air found off the coast of Africa during hurricane season. This easterly jet often is strong enough to cause significant wind shear over the hurricane development region of the tropical Atlantic.


Figure 1. Schematic drawing of the Pacific Ocean's Walker Circulation. Warm ocean waters over the Western Pacific near Australia heat the air above, causing it to rise. When the rising air reaches the top of the troposphere, it can't rise any further, and is forced to flow eastwards towards the Atlantic. This air then sinks back to the surface near the Pacific coast of South America, then flows back towards Australia as easterly trade winds. Image credit: Wikipedia.

The future of wind shear
In their 2007 paper, "Increased Tropical Atlantic Wind Shear in Model Projections of Global Warming", Gabe Vecchi of NOAA's GFDL laboratory and Brian Soden of the University of Miami looked at 18 of the models used to formulate the "official word" on the science of climate change, the 2007 Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) climate report. Vecchi and Soden found that in the scenario where CO2 doubles to 720 ppm by year 2100 (the so-called "A1B" scenario), these models predict a 1.5-3.5°C increase in global surface air temperature. However, in the Caribbean and some surrounding regions, at least 13 of the 18 models predict that the amount of wind shear rises by 1-2 mph per degree C of warming (Figure 2). The shear increases largely as a result of a weakening of the Walker Circulation. This weakening brings strong upper-level westerly winds to the Eastern Pacific and Caribbean.

The implications
If true, Vecchi and Soden's results imply that we may see fewer hurricanes in the Atlantic and Eastern Pacific by the end of the century, since wind shear is such an important ingredient in their formation. How reliable are these model predictions? If global warming is expected to cause a slowdown in the Walker Circulation and increased wind shear over the tropical Atlantic, shouldn't we be able to see these effects already? There is some evidence that we are seeing these effects. According an article by the same authors published in 2006 in Nature, the observed 0.5-0.6°C global warming in the past century has caused the Walker Circulation to slow down by 3.5%--in line with what theory predicts. Moreover, Wang and Lee (2008) documented a 3 mph increase in wind shear over the tropical Atlantic between 1949-2006 (despite some rather low shear years recently, such as during the record-breaking Hurricane Season of 2005). These results, plus the fact that 13 of the 18 IPCC models predict a tropical Atlantic wind shear increase in the coming century, make the hypothesis that we may see increased wind shear over the Atlantic in coming decades a reasonable one. However, climate scientists Ray Pierrehumbert and Rasmus Benestad argue in a 2006 post on realclimate.org that we need another ten years of observations of the Walker Circulation to confirm that we really are seeing a slowdown. In addition, we need to see if the model predictions of increased wind shear hold up when improved simulations with better data and higher resolutions are performed. These models are fairly primitive in their abilities to simulate these sort of regional climate shifts, and some models predict a strengthening of the Walker Circulation in coming decades--the opposite of what Vecchi and Soden found.


Figure 2. Top: predicted change by 2100 in wind shear (in meters per second per degree C of warming--multiply by two to get mph) as predicted by summing the predictions of 18 climate models. Bottom: The number of models that predict the effect shown in the top image. The dots show the locations where tropical storms formed between 1981-2005. The box indicates a region of frequent hurricane formation where wind shear is not predicted to change much. Image credit: Geophysical Research Letters, "Increased Tropical Atlantic Wind Shear in Model Projections of Global Warming", by Vecchi and Soden, 2007.

Caveats
All other things remaining constant, an increase in wind shear will cause fewer hurricanes to form. However, all other things will not remain constant. As the climate warms, Sea Surface Temperatures (SSTs) will warm, which may partially or completely offset the effects of increased wind shear. Vecchi and Soden's research also show a substantial increase in wind shear over most of the Southern Hemisphere's hurricane breeding grounds during their hurricane season, but a significant decrease in wind shear over the Western Pacific and North Indian Oceans. Typhoons and cyclones in these ocean basins may well get more numerous and stronger in the future as a result of the lower wind shear. Much more research remains to be done, and it is far too early to be confident of how wind shear might change in a warming world.

References
Vecchi, G.A., B.J. Soden, A.T. Wittenberg, I.M. Held, A. Leetmaa, and M.J. Harrison, 2006, "Weakening of tropical Pacific atmospheric circulation due to anthropogenic forcing", Nature, 441(7089), 73-76.

Vecchi, G.A., and B.J. Soden, 2007, "Increased Tropical Atlantic Wind Shear in Model Projections of Global Warming", Geophysical Research Letters, 34, L08702, doi:10.1029/2006GL028905, 2007.

Wang, C., and S. Lee, 2008, "Global warming and United States landfalling hurricanes", Geophysical Research Letters 35, L02708, doi:10.1029/2007GL032396, 2008.

realclimate.org has a nice discussion of the Veccu and Soden paper.

Jeff Masters

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664. atmoaggie
12:56 AM GMT on May 22, 2008
Probability outlook pretty heady, too

(Probablility of severe wx...wind/hail/nados within 25 miles of a point)

Member Since: August 16, 2007 Posts: 6 Comments: 12461
663. CaneAddict
12:57 AM GMT on May 22, 2008
661. KEEPEROFTHEGATE 12:56 AM GMT on May 22, 2008
hey cane you want you got
its like this ive notice that you shoot down every thing that everyone else has to say in one way or another and your typed responses comes off in a cocky tone but the blog is meant imo as a tool to gather current observations from all posters and by that determine a resonable forecast to depict a pending event thats it nuttin more nuttin less

iam you
you are me


Let's drop the subject, I am sorry i offended you but you said some very innapropiate rude comments also.
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662. HurricaneJosh20
7:56 PM CDT on May 21, 2008
maybe it'll bring rain to us parched ppl in Fl.....can wish can't we? lol
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661. KEEPEROFTHEGATE (Mod)
8:44 PM EDT on May 21, 2008
hey cane you want you got
its like this ive notice that you shoot down every thing that everyone else has to say in one way or another and your typed responses comes off in a cocky tone but the blog is meant imo as a tool to gather current observations from all posters and by that determine a resonable forecast to depict a pending event thats it nuttin more nuttin less

iam you
you are me
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660. atmoaggie
12:55 AM GMT on May 22, 2008
Tomorrow looking hairy in the central plains...be a lert if you are there.

Member Since: August 16, 2007 Posts: 6 Comments: 12461
659. CaneAddict
12:55 AM GMT on May 22, 2008
657. HurricaneJosh20 12:53 AM GMT on May 22, 2008
thanks Ca....BTw what is up with that GFS, it is just long term or is it for reals?
Action: | Ignore User


It's in the long term but, As the time frame nears closer and closer, The chances of it actually panning out gets higher.
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658. pearlandaggie
12:52 AM GMT on May 22, 2008
i didn't know that, Atmoaggie.

whoop!
Member Since: September 14, 2007 Posts: 3 Comments: 3963
657. HurricaneJosh20
7:52 PM CDT on May 21, 2008
thanks Ca....BTw what is up with that GFS, it is just long term or is it for reals?
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656. bappit
12:43 AM GMT on May 22, 2008
#625 -- that low pressure reading is nothing compared to what's inland. It's that intense low over the Rockies. Broomfield CO is 28.86.
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655. atmoaggie
12:50 AM GMT on May 22, 2008
LOL! I do sometimes like to hear Dr. Lyons thoughts on tropical systems though.

That is because he is a former Aggie prof...with no marketing background.
Member Since: August 16, 2007 Posts: 6 Comments: 12461
654. CaneAddict
12:49 AM GMT on May 22, 2008
651. HurricaneJosh20 12:48 AM GMT on May 22, 2008
good evening bloggers....what's up in the SW Carrib tonight?
Action: | Ignore User



Nothing much but a good amount of convective activity, The GFS model still insists on development down that way, Also develops an area off the SE US!
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653. pearlandaggie
12:48 AM GMT on May 22, 2008
sign me up, atmo! i'm a greedy, capitalist pig! :)

actually, i think a project like that could go a LONG way to properly educating the public.
Member Since: September 14, 2007 Posts: 3 Comments: 3963
652. CaneAddict
12:48 AM GMT on May 22, 2008
649. pearlandaggie 12:46 AM GMT on May 22, 2008
and i was being nice by only calling them "clowns"! :O


LOL! I do sometimes like to hear Dr. Lyons thoughts on tropical systems though.
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651. HurricaneJosh20
7:47 PM CDT on May 21, 2008
good evening bloggers....what's up in the SW Carrib tonight?
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650. atmoaggie
12:43 AM GMT on May 22, 2008
LOL! I could flip a coin to determine my weather predictions and have more credibility than those clowns! :)

That is the result of worrying more about the marketing than the meteorology. TWC ceased to be useful years ago.

Anybody want to invest in a new cable weather channel with the only allowed ads being mute banners at the bottom? One that would actully have enough time to show us some real model output and observational data? Only an idea...
Member Since: August 16, 2007 Posts: 6 Comments: 12461
649. pearlandaggie
12:46 AM GMT on May 22, 2008
and i was being nice by only calling them "clowns"! :O
Member Since: September 14, 2007 Posts: 3 Comments: 3963
648. CaneAddict
12:44 AM GMT on May 22, 2008
646. pearlandaggie 12:43 AM GMT on May 22, 2008
If it means anything, you have more credibility than at least 50% of the WeatherChannel staff. You have 100% more credibility than their late-night staff.

LOL! I could flip a coin to determine my weather predictions and have more credibility than those clowns! :)

(by the way, that was NOT a shot at you, CaneAddict)


Oh, I know, They indeed are a bunch of clowns haha!
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647. FLWeatherFreak91
8:42 PM EDT on May 21, 2008
643. hahaguy 8:33 PM EDT on May 21, 2008 Hide this comment.
my friend just sent me twc's storm alert music, man that sets the mood for hurricane season lol


...Is it possible I could get a copy? If so then I'll send you my email address. i've always wanted that music
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646. pearlandaggie
12:40 AM GMT on May 22, 2008
If it means anything, you have more credibility than at least 50% of the WeatherChannel staff. You have 100% more credibility than their late-night staff.

LOL! I could flip a coin to determine my weather predictions and have more credibility than those clowns! :)

(by the way, that was NOT a shot at you, CaneAddict)
Member Since: September 14, 2007 Posts: 3 Comments: 3963
645. catastropheadjuster
12:37 AM GMT on May 22, 2008
Hey StormJunkie,So what's going on? Getting ready for hurricane season?
Sheri
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644. Tazmanian
12:33 AM GMT on May 22, 2008
DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1217 PM CDT WED MAY 21 2008

VALID 221200Z - 231200Z

...THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF KANSAS...SRN
NEBRASKA AND NRN OKLAHOMA...

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE CNTRL
PLAINS...SRN PLAINS AND HIGH PLAINS...

...REGIONAL OUTBREAK OF SEVERE STORMS POSSIBLE THURSDAY AND THURSDAY
NIGHT ACROSS PARTS OF THE CNTRL AND SRN PLAINS....

...CNTRL AND SRN PLAINS...
AN UPPER-LEVEL LOW OVER THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST WILL DEEPEN TONIGHT
AS AN 80 TO 100 KT MID-LEVEL JET ROUNDS THE BASE OF THE UPPER-LEVEL
TROUGH THURSDAY. THE EXIT REGION OF THIS JET IS FORECAST TO EJECT
NEWD ACROSS THE CNTRL PLAINS THURSDAY AFTERNOON WITH MODEL FORECASTS
IN AGREEMENT CONCERNING THE DEVELOPMENT OF NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS.
DIFFLUENT FLOW ALOFT...MODERATE TO STRONG INSTABILITY...INCREASING
VERTICAL SHEAR AND STRONG LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER-LEVEL
SYSTEM WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR INTENSE THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT. AS A
RESULT...A WIDESPREAD SEVERE THREAT SHOULD DEVELOP ACROSS PARTS OF
THE REGION LATE THURSDAY AFTERNOON INTO THURSDAY EVENING.

AT THE SFC...MODEL FORECASTS MOVE A 986 TO 988 MB LOW SLOWLY EWD
INTO WRN KS THURSDAY. A DRYLINE SHOULD BE IN PLACE FROM THE SFC LOW
EXTENDING SSEWD INTO THE FAR ERN TX PANHANDLE WITH SFC DEWPOINTS
EAST OF THE DRYLINE IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S F. FORECAST SOUNDINGS
SUGGEST THE MOIST LAYER WILL EXTEND ABOVE 850 MB AND THIS SHOULD
RESULT IN STRONG INSTABILITY WITH MLCAPE VALUES IN THE 3000 TO 4500
J/KG RANGE
. AS THUNDERSTORMS INITIATE ALONG THE DRYLINE LATE
THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND MOVE INTO INCREASING INSTABILITY...STRONG
VERTICAL SHEAR ASSOCIATED WITH THE MID-LEVEL JET WILL LIKELY FAVOR
DISCRETE SUPERCELLS AS THE DOMINANT STORM MODE. IN ADDITION TO THE
STRONG VERTICAL SHEAR...LOW-LEVEL SHEAR WILL BE QUITE STRONG. FORECAST SOUNDINGS RAPIDLY INCREASE 0-1 KM SHEAR VALUES TO ABOUT 30
KT AS THE LOW-LEVEL JET STRENGTHENS ACROSS THE MODERATE RISK AREA.
THIS COMBINED WITH RELATIVELY LOW LCL HEIGHTS WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR
TORNADOES AS SUPERCELLS MATURE ACROSS WCNTRL KS...SRN NEB AND NW OK.
A FEW LONGER-LIVED STRONG TORNADOES WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THE MORE
INTENSE SUPERCELLS THAT MOVE INTO THE WRN EDGE OF THE LOW-LEVEL JET
FROM THE LATE AFTERNOON TO THE MID EVENING. MAXIMIZED
INSTABILITY...STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND STRONG DEEP LAYER
SHEAR EVIDENT ON FORECAST SOUNDINGS WILL ALSO SUPPORT AN ISOLATED
THREAT FOR VERY LARGE HAIL WITH THE MORE INTENSE SUPERCELLS.

DURING THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD...MODEL FORECASTS CONTINUE TO REDEVELOP
THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THE DRYLINE ALONG THE WRN EDGE OF THE LOW-LEVEL
JET. THIS SEEMS REASONABLE AND A SEVERE THREAT MAY CONTINUE AFTER
MIDNIGHT WITH LARGE HAIL AND ISOLATED WIND DAMAGE POSSIBLE THROUGH
LATE IN THE PERIOD.

...ERN AND CNTRL TX/OZARK PLATEAU AND LOWER MS VALLEY...
IN RESPONSE TO AN UPPER-LEVEL LOW OVER THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST...A
BROAD 40 TO 50 KT LOW-LEVEL JET WILL BE IN PLACE LATE TONIGHT ACROSS
THE SRN PLAINS. LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE ADVECTION SHOULD SUSTAIN HIGH SFC
DEWPOINTS IN THE LOWER 70S F ACROSS THE ERN HALF OF TX AND THE LOWER
MS VALLEY. THIS SHOULD RESULT IN A LARGE AREA OF STRONG INSTABILITY
BY EARLY THURSDAY AFTERNOON WITH MLCAPE VALUES FROM 3000 TO 4000
J/KG. ALTHOUGH LARGE-SCALE ASCENT WILL BE WEAK ACROSS MOST OF THE
REGION...SCATTERED THUNDERSTORM CLUSTERS SHOULD DEVELOP IN PARTS OF
ERN TX...AR AND LA AS A WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVES NEWD ACROSS THE
REGION. FORECAST SOUNDINGS THURSDAY AFTERNOON ACROSS THE REGION
SUGGEST VERTICAL SHEAR WILL BE STRONG ENOUGH FOR AN ISOLATED SEVERE
STORM THREAT. HOWEVER...CONFIDENCE REMAINS LOW CONCERNING EXACTLY
WHERE INSTABILITY...SHEAR AND STORM COVERAGE WILL BE MOST FAVORABLE
FOR ORGANIZED STORMS.

WOW the way its going here i think i may be wakeing up and seeing a high RISK for thursday whats the chs on that???
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643. hahaguy
8:33 PM EDT on May 21, 2008
my friend just sent me twc's storm alert music, man that sets the mood for hurricane season lol
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642. StormJunkie
12:30 AM GMT on May 22, 2008
nrti, that sounds about right. I can not say for sure though. But the 6 & 18 are not the same. Typically it has seemed that the 12 an 00 are more accurate. Just guesses-observations
Member Since: August 17, 2005 Posts: 26 Comments: 15634
641. CaneAddict
12:30 AM GMT on May 22, 2008
637. TexasGulf 12:20 AM GMT on May 22, 2008
Don't worry about it Cane. He was right in a badly sarcastic way.

People DO read your posts and pay close attention to your reasoning about the tropics. Your reports have been spot-on and you know how to analyze the conditions in front of the storm.

If it means anything, you have more credibility than at least 50% of the WeatherChannel staff. You have 100% more credibility than their late-night staff.

Peace out.


HAHA ;) thanks!
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640. nrtiwlnvragn
8:29 PM EDT on May 21, 2008
Does anyone know what the process is on the GFS for imput data at 06Z and 18Z? If you look at the number of stations on the 00Z GFS UPA Plots versus the number on the 06Z GFS UPA Plots you see the 06Z is considerably less. Do they then use the same info from 00Z in the 06Z?
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639. TexasGulf
12:26 AM GMT on May 22, 2008
Floodman, what city is that about to get munched... Dallas?
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638. Weather456
8:21 PM AST on May 21, 2008
I didnt wanted to get into this, but those insults to caneaddict are rather hard. Could u guys show a little more respect despite these differences.
Member Since: July 24, 2005 Posts: 407 Comments: 19076
637. TexasGulf
12:17 AM GMT on May 22, 2008
Don't worry about it Cane. He was right in a badly sarcastic way.

People DO read your posts and pay close attention to your reasoning about the tropics. Your reports have been spot-on and you know how to analyze the conditions in front of the storm.

If it means anything, you have more credibility than at least 50% of the WeatherChannel staff. You have 100% more credibility than their late-night staff.

Peace out.
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636. Floodman
12:20 AM GMT on May 22, 2008
Adrian, this



is a cool pic!
Member Since: August 2, 2006 Posts: 10 Comments: 9922
635. CaneAddict
12:17 AM GMT on May 22, 2008
634. moonlightcowboy 12:16 AM GMT on May 22, 2008
LOL, Keeper! I hear ya!


Please don't fuel the fire, If you read back at my post's i made a simple statement that shear was too high for Tropical Development, Since i said that he has been going on with the insults and immature comments.
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634. moonlightcowboy
7:15 PM CDT on May 21, 2008
600. LOL, Keeper! I hear ya!
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633. hurricane23
8:12 PM EDT on May 21, 2008
.
Member Since: May 14, 2006 Posts: 8 Comments: 13624
632. CaneAddict
12:13 AM GMT on May 22, 2008
Keeper, Why don't you actually read what people say! I didn't say there was "nothing" in the Gulf Of Mexico, I said the chance for development to occur with that area would not happen due to high levels of wind shear, When did i say there is nothing in the Gulf? Wow what maturity you have.
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631. Floodman
12:11 AM GMT on May 22, 2008
Ahhhh, Pearland, you should know better...speak of the devil and he shall appear!

As far as hail goes, Dallas definitely enjoys it's fair share!
Member Since: August 2, 2006 Posts: 10 Comments: 9922
630. pearlandaggie
12:11 AM GMT on May 22, 2008
very cool..thanks adrian!
Member Since: September 14, 2007 Posts: 3 Comments: 3963
629. hurricane23
8:08 PM EDT on May 21, 2008
Wow this is some spectacular lighting photos from cloud 9 tours.They were posted up on mikes blog a few days ago.VIEW HERE

Member Since: May 14, 2006 Posts: 8 Comments: 13624
628. pearlandaggie
12:03 AM GMT on May 22, 2008
........how 'bout dem Astros? :)
Member Since: September 14, 2007 Posts: 3 Comments: 3963
627. KEEPEROFTHEGATE (Mod)
7:53 PM EDT on May 21, 2008
iam chillin cane addick your the one stating nuttin in gom when from what iam lookin at shows something
maybe you should take yur head out of the donkeys behind and look
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626. hurricane23
8:00 PM EDT on May 21, 2008
Added 1997 miami tornado page to site.VIEW HERE
Member Since: May 14, 2006 Posts: 8 Comments: 13624
624. hahaguy
7:57 PM EDT on May 21, 2008
my friend just sent me twc's storm alert music, man that sets the mood for hurricane season lol
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623. pearlandaggie
11:53 PM GMT on May 21, 2008
622. yeah, the dry air warms up fast! we found out in Texas last summer how moisture can help moderate temperatures. you guys need some rain!
Member Since: September 14, 2007 Posts: 3 Comments: 3963
622. hurricane23
7:51 PM EDT on May 21, 2008
This is crazy! Its been a month with above normal temps so far.

RECORD EVENT REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI, FL
0522 PM EDT WED MAY 21 2008

...RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURE SET AT MIAMI INTERNAIONAL AIRPORT...

AT 138 PM, THE TEMPERATURE REACHED 95 DEGREES THIS AFTERNOON AT
MIAMI INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT. THIS SHATTERED THE PREVIOUS RECORD HIGH
OF 93 DEGREES WHICH WAS LAST SET IN 1981.

Member Since: May 14, 2006 Posts: 8 Comments: 13624
621. 882MB
11:46 PM GMT on May 21, 2008
weatherbro im talking about the 2 newest runs from the GFS 12Z and GFS 18Z it shows the low or trough moving back with alot of mouisture that would be good news for all the fires!well good night everybody ill be back tommorrow to see if the GFS is still showing development.
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619. chilliam
11:39 PM GMT on May 21, 2008
I'm going to read up on the Walker Circulation and post it on my blog!!!!!
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618. CaneAddict
11:45 PM GMT on May 21, 2008
Also for those interested in why my blog has not been updated since May 16th, reason why is due to my wrist, however June 1st i will begin to update it again daily throughout the hurricane season. (if something should become of major interest before then, i will have an update.)
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617. CaneAddict
11:39 PM GMT on May 21, 2008
KEEPEROFTHEGATE 11:03 PM GMT on May 21, 2008
sorry cane we all can not be perfect like you

all hail the great cane addict
the all powerful great forecaster
of tropical systems


Was this comment really neccesary, You need to learn to drop it, I go away and you have to make a sarcastic remark like that. All i said is that shear is too high for tropical development, That wasent an invitation for a rucus in the blog, chill out bud, The season hasent even started.
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616. Michfan
6:43 PM CDT on May 21, 2008
Looks like the GFS is about to get put to the test next week. It will be interesting to see how spot on it is this far out.
Member Since: September 7, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 1666
614. weatherbro
11:21 PM GMT on May 21, 2008
that low next week won't do anything to Florida except reinforce continental dry air down the peninsula.
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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.