Chile's volcano not likely to affect the climate
It's been a busy month for natural disasters, and I haven't found time to talk about Chile's Chaiten volcano, 760 miles (1,220 km) south of the capital Santiago. The volcano started erupting on May 2 for the first time in thousands of years, spewing ash, gas and molten rock into the air, forcing the evacuation of thousands of people. Did this mighty eruption have a cooling effect on the climate?
Figure 1. This May 5, 2008 image from NASA's Terra satellite caught Chaiten erupting. Image credit: NASA.
Many historic volcanic eruptions have had a major cooling impact on Earth's climate. However, Chaiten is very unlikely to be one of them. To see why this is, let's examine recent volcanic eruptions that have had a significant cooling effect on the climate. In the past 200 years, Mt. Pinatubo in the Phillipines (June 1991), El Chichon (Mexico, 1982), Mt. Agung (Indonesia, 1963), Santa Maria (Guatemala, 1902) Krakatoa (Indonesia, 1883), and Tambora (1815) all created noticeable cooling. As one can see from a plot of the solar radiation reaching Mauna Loa in Hawaii (Figure 2), the Mt. Pinatubo and El Chichon eruptions caused a greater than 10% drop in sunlight reaching the surface. The eruption of Tambora in 1815 had an even greater impact, triggering the famed Year Without a Summer in 1816. Killing frosts and snowstorms in May and June 1816 in Eastern Canada and New England caused widespread crop failures, and lake and river ice were observed as far south as Pennsylvania in July and August. Volcanic eruptions cause this kind of climate cooling by throwing large amounts of sulfur dioxide gas into the stratosphere. This gas reacts with water to form sulphuric acid droplets (aerosol particles), which are highly reflective, and reduce the amount of incoming sunlight.
You'll notice from the list of eruptions above that all of these climate-cooling events were from volcanoes in the tropics. Above the tropics, the stratosphere's circulation features rising air, which pulls the sulfur-containing volcanic aerosols high into the stratosphere, where the upper-level winds circulate them all around the globe. These aerosol particles take a year or two to settle back down to earth, since there is no rain in the stratosphere to help remove them. However, if a major volcanic eruption occurs in the mid-latitudes or polar regions, the circulation of the stratosphere in those regions generally features downward subsiding air, and the volcanic aerosol particles are not able to penetrate high in the stratosphere and get carried all around the globe. Chaiten is located near 40° south latitude, far from the tropics, and thus is unlikely to be able to inject significant amounts of sulfur aerosols into the stratosphere. Furthermore, the character of Chaiten's eruptions so far has been to eject a lot of silica and not much sulfur into the air. The total amount of sulfur ejected has been only about 1/10000 of what Mt. Pinatubo put into the air, according to NASA.
Figure 2. Reduced solar radiation due to volcanic aerosols as measured at Mauna Loa Observatory, Hawaii. Image credit: NOAA/ESRL.
Realclimate.org has a nice article that goes into the volcano-climate connection in greater detail. One interesting quote from the article: There can be some exceptions to the tropics-only rule, and at least one high latitude volcano appears to have had significant climate effects; Laki (Iceland, 1783-1784). The crucial factor was that the eruption was almost continuous for over 8 months which lead to significantly elevated sulphate concentrations for that whole time over much of the Atlantic and European regions, even though stratospheric concentrations were likely not particularly exceptional.
My next blog will talk about new research regarding the hurricanes/global warming connection.
Jeff Masters
Reader Comments
Page: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 | 21 | 22 | 23 | 24 | 25 | 26 | 27 | 28 | 29 | 30 | 31 | 32 | 33 | 34 | 35 — Blog Index
I'll Be Back on tommorow after ....School
Ok guys..... DO NOT OVERREACT TO THIS!!!!!!
I just spoke to StormW's wife.. I asked if he was there. She had a hesitant nature to her voice. She said "I am not sure.... Hang on..." About a minute later, she came back and said "no he's not here." I said "ok, didn't mean to bother just let him know Andy from WU called to see how he was doing." That was it.
I didn't like the quiver in the voice... I say again... DO NOT FREAK OUT!!! He's probably just out with his kids.
that is rather troubling
Sounds Like She is Hiding Something , and i feel really sick about it ....
Maybe she is Estranged ... or She Might Have done something ...
How could you say that??
I will repost it but thats it I dont want to spam =P
--------------
With all of you giving predictions I ask all of you to take part of the little contest I am holding which is related to Hurricane season 08 =)
Give it a try lol please the blog is dead I has been a while since the last entry lol
here is the link to my blog
Chaiten = Sports?
00z (12:00 AM)
06z (6:00 AM)
12z (12:00 PM)
18z (6:00 PM)
Since cyclones don't occur in the Atlantic basin, that would be amazing. Maybe the GFS has the prediction right but is only wrong about position by 14,000 miles.
http://volcanism.wordpress.com/2008/05/16/chaiten-sernageomin-bulletin-16-may-2008/
Through 276hrs, the GFS has a tropical cyclone just off the SE Florida coastline with a very sheared appearance.
Since cyclones don't occur in the Atlantic basin, that would be amazing. Maybe the GFS has the prediction right but is only wrong about position by 14,000 miles.
Action: | Ignore User
Just so you know, Tropical Cyclones can be s subsitute term for Hurricanes or Typhoons also.
This GOESe shot shows the "weak" B/A high clearly set up east of Bermuda.
Maybe p451, wish you could find that post. We just not have seen a blog entry in over 15 days, nor has anyone heard from him so we were a little concerned.
Like nash said though, there is no need for any overreaction or assumptions.
Tornadoes can be also be called Cyclones. Some people call thunderstorms "tempests". I just don't like things being non-specific.
By definition, a Cyclone is any swirling mass of air moving in a circular manner. It doesn't say how big, how fast or what magnetude.
Hurricane or Tropical Storm have defined strengths, giving the listener a sense of scale. I bet there are at least 5 cyclones off the florida coast right now... in all manner of sizes and wind speeds. ;>)
The SSD has their satellite imagery (Meteosat - East Atlantic Imagery) updating every 6 hrs which is below its potential. It can update much faster, like every 30 minutes as seen on EMUSAT, RAMSDIS and the NAVY websites. Frankly, I dont understand the logic behind the SSD in keeping that imagery updating every 6hrs, except maybe trying to track a tropical wave over a large temporal space (time period).
yes i am bystander
Moved from USC 3 years ago. Now in Ft. Lauderdale.
The general consensus seems to be that the high positioned like it is could make the eCoast much more vulnerable than it has been in recent years. Of course, it's also very important as to where these storms form initially as well.
Link
Actually EUMETSAT now has a Rapid Scan feature which produces images in five minute intervals.
Link
even better
we sould be talking about Chaiten volcano not being off Tropic not one talk in here is about Chaiten volcano
why do you think the Admin been re moveing most of your off Tropic post???
now whats start talking about Chaiten volcano
This is the April MEAN position, centered eastwards at about 1020mb.
Date: 16 May 2008
ReliefWebLink
USAID provides volcano assistance to Chile
Washington, D.C. – The American people, through the U.S. Agency for International Development (USAID), have provided $80,000 to assist the Chilean geological agency SERNAGEOMIN to monitor current volcanic conditions at the Chaitén volcano.
On May 2, the Chaitén volcano, located 760 miles south of the capital city of Santiago, began to erupt and spew molten rock and ash, after being dormant for 173 years. In response, the Government of Chile issued a red alert, forcing people living within a 30-mile radius of the volcano to evacuate. As of May 14, local authorities had evacuated approximately 8,000 people living near the volcano. The most affected areas include the cities of Chaitén, Futuleufú, El Amarille, and Chana.
In response to the volcano eruption, U.S. Ambassador to Chile Paul E. Simons offered the Government of Chile assistance through the U.S. Geological Survey Volcano Disaster Assistance Program (VDAP).
As of May 9, SERNAGEOMIN was monitoring eruptive activity using four seismic stations near the volcano. The technology at these stations requires that a person travel to the stations to collect data on the volcano. With funding from USAID, VDAP will install new telemetered seismic stations and assist SERNAGEOMIN with data interpretation. In addition, on May 16, VDAP sent a three-person team of experts to Chile to assist with station and telemetry installation and to provide support with data interpretation.
USAID will continue to monitor the situation and coordinate with the Government of Chile. For more information about USAID's emergency humanitarian assistance programs, please visit: www.usaid.gov/our_work/humanitarian_assistance/disaster_assistance/.
Contact:
Press Office: 202-712-4320
Public Information: 202-712-4810
www.usaid.gov
The area of disturbed weather at around 20 n, is not a wave apparently. Its part of the ITCZ. Looks like a fair amount of moisture associated with it right now, but there does not appear to be enough moist air around it for it to become more than it is.__
A large area of ITCZ showers.
The upper level winds are still predominantly westerly just north of the ITCZ, and that will keep things quiet for a while again.
Link
It's just a quick update though; not as detailed as I get in the season. And, I'm pretty new at this, so comment if you can. Thanks!
but I just don't have anything else to add =P
Nonlocality of Atlantic tropical cyclone intensities
Kyle L. Swanson
Atmospheric Sciences Group, Department of Mathematical Sciences, University of Wisconsin–Milwaukee, Milwaukee, Wisconsin 53201, USA
Abstract Link
The assumption that tropical cyclones respond primarily to sea surface temperatures (SSTs) local to their main development regions underlies much of the concern regarding the possible impacts of anthropogenic greenhouse warming on tropical cyclone statistics. Here the observed relationship between changes in sea surface temperature and tropical cyclone intensities in the Atlantic basin is explored. Atlantic tropical cyclone intensity fluctuations and storm numbers are shown to depend not only upon SST anomalies local to the Atlantic main development region, but also in a negative sense upon the tropical mean SST. This behavior is shown in part to be consistent with changes in the tropical cyclone potential intensity that provides an upper bound on storm intensity. However, Atlantic tropical cyclone intensity fluctuations are more nonlocal than the potential intensity itself and specifically vary along with Atlantic main development region SST anomalies relative to the tropical mean SST. This suggests that there is no straightforward link between warmer SSTs in the main development region and more intense tropical cyclones.
Received 3 October 2007; accepted 6 February 2008; published 3 April 2008.
Keywords: tropical cyclones; climate change.
Index Terms: 1616 Global Change: Climate variability (1635, 3305, 3309, 4215, 4513); 1630 Global Change: Impacts of global change (1225).
Subscriber Access to Full Article (Nonsubscribers may purchase for $9.00, Includes print PDF, file size: 336167 bytes)
Citation: Swanson, K. L. (2008), Nonlocality of Atlantic tropical cyclone intensities, Geochem. Geophys. Geosyst., 9, Q04V01, doi:10.1029/2007GC001844.
Copyright 2008 by the American Geophysical Union.
Those in Front Just rattle ya Jewelry
From today's TWD:
..the ITCZ...
ITCZ axis is centered along 5n9w 5n20w 3n30w 4n40w 4n45w and into NE Brazil near 3n52w. Clusters of moderate to strong convection are within 150-180 nm on either side of the axis between 13w-21w. Similar convection is from eq-6n between the prime Meridian and 5w. Also scattered moderate convection is from 4n-6n between 47w-49w.
This is about the furthest north we've seen the ITCZ - the wATL side seems to be making its northern movement like the eATL portion has been. With a more northerly ITCZ comes warmer SST's and more convection.
ALSO, notice the B/A High centered out in the eastern part of the ATL at 1026mb. The western periphery extends further west, but becomes considerably weaker in strength.
Viewing: 901 - 951
Page: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 | 21 | 22 | 23 | 24 | 25 | 26 | 27 | 28 | 29 | 30 | 31 | 32 | 33 | 34 | 35 — Blog Index