Dean, Felix and Noel get their names retired; 13th warmest April on record

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 1:53 PM GMT on May 16, 2008

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For the first time since the the incredible Hurricane Season of 2005, a new set of Atlantic hurricane names has been permanently retired. Members of the World Meteorological Organization's Regional Association IV Hurricane Committee decided to retire the names of Hurricane Dean, Hurricane Felix, and Hurricane Noel during their annual meeting in Orlando this week. These names will not be used again because of the significant death and destruction these storms caused in 2007. The names Dorian, Fernand, and Nestor will serve as replacements of the 2013 hurricane season, when the names from 2007 are scheduled to repeat. The list of retired hurricane names now features 21 storms from the decade of the 2000s, and 70 storms since 1954.


Figure 1. Satellite images of the fearsome threesome of 2007: Dean, Felix, and Noel.

The names for the coming 2008 Atlantic hurricane season are Arthur, Bertha, Christobal, Dolly, Edouard, Fay, Gustav, Hanna, Ike, Josephine, Kyle, Laura, Marco, Nana, Omar, Paloma, Rene, Sally, Teddy, Vicky, and Wilfred. Looking at the latest long range GFS model forecast, there's no sign that we'll be seeing Tropical Storm Arthur during the last half of May. Wind shear remains seasonably high over the tropical Atlantic, and there is plenty of dry air evident.

In the Eastern Pacific, where hurricane season began yesterday, the names for 2008 are Alma, Boris, Cristina, Douglas, Elida, Fausto, Genevieve, Hernan, Isell, Julio, Karina, Lowell, Marie, Norbert, Odile, Polo, Rachel, Simon, Trudy, Vance, Winnie, Xavier, Yolanda, and Zeke. There's nothing brewing in that ocean basin, either.

April 2008: 13th warmest April on record for the globe
April 2008 was the 13th warmest April for the the globe on record, according to statistics released by the National Climatic Data Center. The January-April year-to-date period ranked twelfth warmest. A weak La Niña event continues to cool ocean waters in the central and eastern equatorial Pacific. The La Niña event weakened considerably in April, but has stabilized just above the threshold for being classified as neutral, during the first half of May.

A cool April in the U.S.
For the contiguous U.S., April was the coolest April in 11 years for the lower 48 United States, and fell into the lowest twenty-five percent of all Aprils based on records going back to 1895, making it the 29th coolest April on record. Precipitation was near average for the month.

April arctic sea ice extent
April 2008 Northern Hemisphere sea ice extent was the eighth lowest on record for the month of April, 7% below its extent in 1979 when satellite measurements began, according to the National Snow and Ice Data Center. April was the fifth straight month that a new monthly minimum arctic sea ice record was not set, following a string of five months in a row where monthly records were set. The past four years had the least April sea ice extent since records began in 1979, with 2007 having the least April sea ice extent on record. However, while the ice extent is not at a record low this year, the volume of the arctic sea ice is probably at a record low for April. The ice is exceptionally thin across the Arctic this winter, and the edge of this thin first-year ice extends beyond the North Pole.

I'll have more on Cyclone Nargis next week. The Southwest Monsoon has continued to push northward, and is expected to move into the cyclone-devastated region on Saturday, bringing heavy rains.

Jeff Masters

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203. Patrap
7:34 PM CDT on May 16, 2008
sigh...

GOES-12 Ch-3 WV/Dry air shaded Link
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 428 Comments: 129902
202. stoormfury
12:27 AM GMT on May 17, 2008
impressive wave exiting the african coast 1n the next 36 hrs. sst and wind shear are somewhat favourable provided it stays south of 12 deg north lat. there has been a parade of tropical waves so early this season which should idicate a very active an interesting season
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201. presslord
8:11 PM EDT on May 16, 2008
I have an old college dorm friend who is now the climatologist for a southern state...saw him recently and, in casual conversation, used the words "climatologist" and "meteorologist" interchageably....big mistake...once he explained, in great detail, how stoopid I was, I realized that we frequently get the two disciplines mixed up here...
Member Since: August 13, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 10492
200. Weather456
7:52 PM AST on May 16, 2008
And I hope the GFS long range is correct...I need to see some rain...not too much...but its just been hot and dry here in the Leewards.


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199. scwindsaloft
7:56 PM EDT on May 16, 2008
Evening SJ......Glad someone in the area got a little wind and rain :(
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198. Weather456
7:26 PM AST on May 16, 2008
182. cchsweatherman 6:44 PM AST on May 16, 2008

maybe the beginning of an AEW

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197. presslord
7:32 PM EDT on May 16, 2008
2700 astrologers are presently gathered in Denver for a convention....Has anyone heard if they've issued a hurricane forecast? I'd like to compare their results in November with some of the other no-skill predictions....
Member Since: August 13, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 10492
196. CaneAddict
11:32 PM GMT on May 16, 2008
Also CCHS, Notice shear right off the coast of Africa above 10N is as high as 40-50knots...Which is obviously unfavorable. However shear is decreasing so it is possible that by the time it emerges over water shear could be at favorable levels.
Member Since: October 5, 2007 Posts: 3 Comments: 2151
195. TexasGulf
11:10 PM GMT on May 16, 2008
144. StormJunkie:
Plylox clips will not work on many of the new cookie cutter built homes that have flat surfaces on the exterior windows as opposed to the classic brick style home that has recessed windows. Any suggestions for easy ways to secure plywood to these during a storm?


You do NOT have to put plywood on the exterior of the windows. If not possible or practical (2nd floor, hard to reach, etc...), there is a good alternative.

The main goal of the plywood is to prevent storm winds, rain and debris from entering the home. It will help prevent the glass windows from breaking if placed on the outside, but that wasn't your main goal. You want to protect your house first. Glass panes are sacrificial.

On each side of your windows, your house builder will have placed a double wood stud. You can place the plywood on the window ledge on the inside, pushing it up flat against the window frame. Lowes or Home Depot have pipe hangers and U-clamps for hanging plumbing pipe. If you get two 1" piping U-clamps for each side of your window and wood-screw them into the studs. Push the 1" plumbers pipe (black iron preferred) through the U-clamps to support the plywood from the interior. Tighten the U-clamps to press the plywood against the window frame.

From that point on, it will be very easy to remove the piping and plywood for any storm. The U-clamps can easily be hidden behind the curtains if you prefer.

Most glass windows will survive 90 mph winds without breaking. If there is debris impact or tree limb damage, the plywood on the interior will keep out broken glass, debris and the majority of the wind. A few weeks after the storm, you can simply replace the glass at your leisure.

Hope that helps. I don't trust Plylocks clips at all, even for recessed windows.
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194. CaneAddict
11:23 PM GMT on May 16, 2008
I am very interested in what the NHC will say about this on their 8:05PM discussion.

Once again CCHS, Great observation! I sure did'nt notice that as i wasent monitoring Africa quite yet as development out there does'nt occur quite yet, But with the current set-up it is possible.
Member Since: October 5, 2007 Posts: 3 Comments: 2151
193. Patrap
6:24 PM CDT on May 16, 2008
Zzzzzzzzzzzz...Klunk.



GOES-12 Ch-3 WV (Dry-Air Shaded) Link

Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 428 Comments: 129902
192. CaneAddict
11:22 PM GMT on May 16, 2008
Also that area over Africa looks like it may not emerge over water for at least the next 24 hours.
Member Since: October 5, 2007 Posts: 3 Comments: 2151
191. CaneAddict
11:18 PM GMT on May 16, 2008
183. extreme236 10:48 PM GMT on May 16, 2008
But you can see a pretty good amount of dry air in front of that convective activity over Africa


Extreme thats correct, I agree but if thats all it may have to deal with, Then development is possible, Although if something did develop such as a tropical depression it would probably be short-lived....Certain systems can establish it's own moist envirement while others let dry air become entrained and die, It is indeed something to monitor though.

On the other thoughts, This is quite horrifying to think we already have features this well established and organized when it is still May...Again more support for an active Cape Verde season!
Member Since: October 5, 2007 Posts: 3 Comments: 2151
190. presslord
7:11 PM EDT on May 16, 2008
...they're ignorant thugs...trying to psychoanalyze them is an insult to truly crazy people....
Member Since: August 13, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 10492
189. StormJunkie
11:11 PM GMT on May 16, 2008
Hey winds, good to see ya!

Stop by bt's blog sometime. There is a Charelston area meet planned sometime soon.
Member Since: August 17, 2005 Posts: 26 Comments: 16874
187. scwindsaloft
7:01 PM EDT on May 16, 2008
What were the leaders of Myanmar thinking to delay disaster aid??????
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185. StormJunkie
10:49 PM GMT on May 16, 2008
lol
Member Since: August 17, 2005 Posts: 26 Comments: 16874
184. presslord
6:45 PM EDT on May 16, 2008
Big news flash!!! History is made!!!!

For the first time in modern history, the local Charleston weather media is NOT hysterically predicticting Armageddon from the current line of rain/storms.....
Member Since: August 13, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 10492
183. extreme236
10:46 PM GMT on May 16, 2008
But you can see a pretty good amount of dry air in front of that convective activity over Africa
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182. cchsweatherman
6:38 PM EDT on May 16, 2008
Just checking satellite imagery from Africa and this certaintly caught my attention. Can't wait to see what happens when it emerges over water. Quite an impressive convective burst associated with a surface low analyzed at 1004mb earlier. Right now, it currently is moving along 11N, which if this holds, would be far enough north that it may have to be monitored.

Figure 1 - Current African Water Vapor Image (Source: Tropical RAMSDIS 2008)
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181. StormJunkie
10:36 PM GMT on May 16, 2008
Yep press, that was a little nastier then the first one. Can not verify hail and I think I just missed the worst of it. Had run out to get a soda. Ended up in the gas station for 30 minutes on the phone with my new boss!!! WUhoo, got the job!

Some rain headed your way now...
Member Since: August 17, 2005 Posts: 26 Comments: 16874
180. presslord
6:15 PM EDT on May 16, 2008
Stormjunkie's backyard...

SC... Strong thunderstorms will impact Berkeley County... Dorchester
County and Charleston County through 700 PM EDT...

At 604 PM EDT... National Weather Service Doppler radar indicated a
strong thunderstorm capable of producing pea size hail... and strong
winds of 45 to 55 mph. This storm was located near Lotts
Crossroads... or about over Summerville... moving east at 32 mph.

Member Since: August 13, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 10492
179. KEEPEROFTHEGATE (Mod)
5:37 PM EDT on May 16, 2008
lol press
Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 178 Comments: 56140
178. ShenValleyFlyFish
5:31 PM EDT on May 16, 2008
Re Firebug and dog. Did anyone think to check if the firebug was up-to-date with all his shots? Sure hate to see a good dog catch something.
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177. presslord
5:28 PM EDT on May 16, 2008
would make life a lot easier if y'all would just go ahead and let me know now the dates I'm gonna need to secure the boat, evacuate, etc...
Member Since: August 13, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 10492
176. StormJunkie
9:25 PM GMT on May 16, 2008
lol, let me get back to you around Nov 1 on that ☺
Member Since: August 17, 2005 Posts: 26 Comments: 16874
175. presslord
5:23 PM EDT on May 16, 2008
good news...and a little rain is good for the allergies....Was away for about an hour....Did y'all get the season all figured out?
Member Since: August 13, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 10492
174. StormJunkie
9:19 PM GMT on May 16, 2008
Not so bad press, heavy rain and a little wind, but that is about it. Seems the dynamics just are not there for the severe stuff. There is a second line setting up and that should bring some rain your way and those may be a little worse then this batch. I was pretty surprised by the lack of lightening with this cell.
Member Since: August 17, 2005 Posts: 26 Comments: 16874
173. presslord
5:15 PM EDT on May 16, 2008
SJ....You hunkered down out there? S'posed ta git ugly
Member Since: August 13, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 10492
172. KEEPEROFTHEGATE (Mod)
5:11 PM EDT on May 16, 2008
things can and will change
Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 178 Comments: 56140
171. StormJunkie
9:07 PM GMT on May 16, 2008
I hear ya Drak.

I think the biggest problems with that is that we sometimes want to seem more important then we are which can lead to the unhealthy part.
Member Since: August 17, 2005 Posts: 26 Comments: 16874
170. Drakoen
9:05 PM GMT on May 16, 2008
169. StormJunkie 9:00 PM GMT on May 16, 2008
167. Healthy, and lively debate should not lead to drama...should not were the key words there!


lol. Its just that they tend not to be too healthy sometimes..
Member Since: October 28, 2006 Posts: 57 Comments: 30832
169. StormJunkie
8:59 PM GMT on May 16, 2008
167. Healthy, and lively debate should not lead to drama...should not were the key words there!
Member Since: August 17, 2005 Posts: 26 Comments: 16874
168. all4hurricanes
8:56 PM GMT on May 16, 2008
I was referring to Andrea and I knew Wind fueled Fires
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167. Drakoen
8:55 PM GMT on May 16, 2008
I was wondering what Adrian's reason is too but I didn't want any drama to start over it...
Member Since: October 28, 2006 Posts: 57 Comments: 30832
166. CaneAddict
8:52 PM GMT on May 16, 2008
164. all4hurricanes 8:50 PM GMT on May 16, 2008
I know lets call mother nature to send Florida a Little Tropical storm towards Florida but have it stay off shore and not bring rain and fan some fires it will tease FL
remind you of something
Action: | Ignore User


Actually if WIND was all we recieved from a tropical storm during the wild fires, That would make the fires worse. Providing more air/oxygen and it would fuel the fires.
Member Since: October 5, 2007 Posts: 3 Comments: 2151
165. CaneAddict
8:48 PM GMT on May 16, 2008
154. Weather456 8:28 PM GMT on May 16, 2008

Exactly! Hurricane23, What's your reasoning?
Member Since: October 5, 2007 Posts: 3 Comments: 2151
164. all4hurricanes
8:48 PM GMT on May 16, 2008
I know lets call mother nature to send Florida a Little Tropical storm towards Florida but have it stay off shore and not bring rain and fan some fires it will tease FL
remind you of something
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163. all4hurricanes
8:46 PM GMT on May 16, 2008
Bloggers every 4 seconds who knows what world catastrophe will occur with all that used energy
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162. HurricaneSammy
8:39 PM GMT on May 16, 2008
The Quiet Before The Storm

Could Mean

1. A Active Hurricane Season

2. A BUNCH OF BLOGGERS ! that would terrorize the blog posting every 4 seconds !

Now you tell me which one is Worse
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161. moonlightcowboy
3:39 PM CDT on May 16, 2008
Here's the loop on that central African sw/ne flow. I just thought it looked unusual.
Member Since: July 9, 2006 Posts: 184 Comments: 29610
160. NEwxguy
8:37 PM GMT on May 16, 2008
thanks skye,need some rain down there badly.As far as the firebug,hope the dog got some good munching in.
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159. HurricaneSammy
8:36 PM GMT on May 16, 2008
147. vortfix 8:11 PM GMT on May 16, 2008
Allison.....geesh....what a monster flooder!


I'd Like To Order 1 alison Please ....

Yup Send to florida Right Away ...

LOL
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158. StormJunkie
8:37 PM GMT on May 16, 2008
Afternoon Skye!

Just saw that 0% contained on TWC...Not good.
Member Since: August 17, 2005 Posts: 26 Comments: 16874
157. Skyepony (Mod)
8:22 PM GMT on May 16, 2008
NEwxguy~ I just updated about them in my blog. Most impressive is the swamp fire in Lake O, like 19,000+ acres, 0% contained, 15 miles SW of some town.

As for the Brevard complex firebug, he got fed to a police dog, hospitalized & now incarcerated, no bond.
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156. StormJunkie
8:28 PM GMT on May 16, 2008
456, I think 23 thinks that a bunch of us have been talking about a storm forming tomorrow. Plus if we don't have a storm until July I think he wants to come out with the proverbial I told ya :~)
Member Since: August 17, 2005 Posts: 26 Comments: 16874
155. moonlightcowboy
3:25 PM CDT on May 16, 2008
Photobucket

...isn't this an unusual flow over the central African continent from sw to ne? I just don't recall seeing such a pattern. Anyone? You can see the ITCZ has moved more northwards.
Member Since: July 9, 2006 Posts: 184 Comments: 29610
154. Weather456
4:10 PM AST on May 16, 2008
Sir ive been following tropical cyclones for almost 15yrs now going my 16th on my 31st birthday.Early season development is always a possibility in any tropical season but given the high shear values along with SAL covering most of the tropical atlantic i think we will likely finish the month of may with no problems.Going into early june i see no different with significant development chances still not likely.Of cource you can always see your 2 dozen invest that never get going.I suspect activity will pick up come late june possibly into the mid july as we enter the peak months of the season.


Why are we concern about the tropical atlantic in June? Isnt the main development regions in the Western Caribbean and Gulf? And h23, u keep saying that no development until July and I have yet to see your reasoning. Frankly, if forecasts pan out, the main development regions for June should be quite favrable to support the development of a passing tropical wave. Is there something I'm missing? If so, then post it.
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153. AWeatherLover
8:26 PM GMT on May 16, 2008
Does anyone know if the rain is supposed to hold together for west central FL? They are only predicting 20% chance of rain...
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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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