Dean, Felix and Noel get their names retired; 13th warmest April on record

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 1:53 PM GMT on May 16, 2008

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For the first time since the the incredible Hurricane Season of 2005, a new set of Atlantic hurricane names has been permanently retired. Members of the World Meteorological Organization's Regional Association IV Hurricane Committee decided to retire the names of Hurricane Dean, Hurricane Felix, and Hurricane Noel during their annual meeting in Orlando this week. These names will not be used again because of the significant death and destruction these storms caused in 2007. The names Dorian, Fernand, and Nestor will serve as replacements of the 2013 hurricane season, when the names from 2007 are scheduled to repeat. The list of retired hurricane names now features 21 storms from the decade of the 2000s, and 70 storms since 1954.


Figure 1. Satellite images of the fearsome threesome of 2007: Dean, Felix, and Noel.

The names for the coming 2008 Atlantic hurricane season are Arthur, Bertha, Christobal, Dolly, Edouard, Fay, Gustav, Hanna, Ike, Josephine, Kyle, Laura, Marco, Nana, Omar, Paloma, Rene, Sally, Teddy, Vicky, and Wilfred. Looking at the latest long range GFS model forecast, there's no sign that we'll be seeing Tropical Storm Arthur during the last half of May. Wind shear remains seasonably high over the tropical Atlantic, and there is plenty of dry air evident.

In the Eastern Pacific, where hurricane season began yesterday, the names for 2008 are Alma, Boris, Cristina, Douglas, Elida, Fausto, Genevieve, Hernan, Isell, Julio, Karina, Lowell, Marie, Norbert, Odile, Polo, Rachel, Simon, Trudy, Vance, Winnie, Xavier, Yolanda, and Zeke. There's nothing brewing in that ocean basin, either.

April 2008: 13th warmest April on record for the globe
April 2008 was the 13th warmest April for the the globe on record, according to statistics released by the National Climatic Data Center. The January-April year-to-date period ranked twelfth warmest. A weak La Niña event continues to cool ocean waters in the central and eastern equatorial Pacific. The La Niña event weakened considerably in April, but has stabilized just above the threshold for being classified as neutral, during the first half of May.

A cool April in the U.S.
For the contiguous U.S., April was the coolest April in 11 years for the lower 48 United States, and fell into the lowest twenty-five percent of all Aprils based on records going back to 1895, making it the 29th coolest April on record. Precipitation was near average for the month.

April arctic sea ice extent
April 2008 Northern Hemisphere sea ice extent was the eighth lowest on record for the month of April, 7% below its extent in 1979 when satellite measurements began, according to the National Snow and Ice Data Center. April was the fifth straight month that a new monthly minimum arctic sea ice record was not set, following a string of five months in a row where monthly records were set. The past four years had the least April sea ice extent since records began in 1979, with 2007 having the least April sea ice extent on record. However, while the ice extent is not at a record low this year, the volume of the arctic sea ice is probably at a record low for April. The ice is exceptionally thin across the Arctic this winter, and the edge of this thin first-year ice extends beyond the North Pole.

I'll have more on Cyclone Nargis next week. The Southwest Monsoon has continued to push northward, and is expected to move into the cyclone-devastated region on Saturday, bringing heavy rains.

Jeff Masters

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1353. JRRP
3:50 PM GMT on May 19, 2008
what part of the caribbean is in most risk this season?????
Member Since: August 16, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 6284
1352. JRRP
3:41 PM GMT on May 19, 2008
strong convection over african coast
Member Since: August 16, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 6284
1351. JRRP
3:39 PM GMT on May 19, 2008
Member Since: August 16, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 6284
1350. surfmom
3:19 PM GMT on May 19, 2008
Patrap - sorry about the loss, I lost a few peers myself this year (3 in my age group) - really hits home when you turn 50 and people start passing on --I called it the "culling of the herd" -- kinda scary when you have kids to finish raising --just reinforces my drive to play hard as often as possible- and to try and remember not to complain or whine
Member Since: July 18, 2007 Posts: 30 Comments: 26536
1349. surfmom
3:15 PM GMT on May 19, 2008
Thought I got a note saying StormW was going out of town for a week but...... it seems longer then that, I'd been missing him him and thought that's why he seemed away for so long.
Member Since: July 18, 2007 Posts: 30 Comments: 26536
1348. cchsweatherman
2:06 PM GMT on May 19, 2008
1340. Patrap 9:58 AM EDT on May 19, 2008
On a sad note.
I lost a friend at 2am Sun Morn.
Charles Kimble..a Good man.
Done in by Cancer.Diagnosed on May 8th. Gone 10 days later.

What they missed at the Hospital 3 months ago,as a torn rotator Cuff..Was Stage 4 Lung Cancer that metastasized thru his Body.
He went on and didnt go Back to the doc till the Ambulance came May 8th and took him to Hospice.
Dont be tough folks. Pain is a signal.
Now ..hes just gone.
If ya smoke..Quit.
If you dont.Dont start.


I'm so sorry to hear about that. Charles must have been a vital person in your life. Hope that you and your family are doing well, all things considered. You send a great message to everyone on these blogs; no matter how strong one thinks they may be, you can never live life on your own; we all need help, even when we don't think so. Send my condolences to your family and his for me.
Member Since: April 14, 2007 Posts: 8 Comments: 5169
1347. presslord
2:04 PM GMT on May 19, 2008
and to echo Pat's serious note...I spent the winter dealing with having a melanoma removed from my face...several surgeries, etc...if I'd dealt with it when I first noticed a change, it would have been a simple little matter...listen to your body...my sympathies for your loss....
Member Since: August 13, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 10492
1346. StormJunkie
2:03 PM GMT on May 19, 2008
Dr M has a New blog up

I am off, see y'all later
Member Since: August 17, 2005 Posts: 26 Comments: 16875
1345. Cavin Rawlins
2:03 PM GMT on May 19, 2008
1340. Patrap 9:58 AM AST on May 19, 2008

sorry to hear...My deepest condolences
Member Since: July 24, 2005 Posts: 407 Comments: 19076
1344. nash28
2:02 PM GMT on May 19, 2008
I am very sorry to hear that Pat.
My condolences.
Member Since: July 11, 2005 Posts: 190 Comments: 16972
1343. moonlightcowboy
2:02 PM GMT on May 19, 2008
Pat, so sorry to hear of the loss of your friend.
Member Since: July 9, 2006 Posts: 184 Comments: 29610
1342. Cavin Rawlins
2:00 PM GMT on May 19, 2008
1316. nash28 9:41 AM AST on May 19, 2008
I'm not sure MLC. I gonna try calling him on my lunch break to make sure he's ok. He hasn't updated his blog in two weeks.


I was also wondering where he is.
Member Since: July 24, 2005 Posts: 407 Comments: 19076
1341. moonlightcowboy
1:58 PM GMT on May 19, 2008
I'm not a fan of models. It's not that I don't like them. It's just that I haven't used them, fooled around with them much, really. I've used SJ's tutorials and I peak at them, so I can use them some, but don't rely on them.

I've just always looked at the sats and the conditions, primarily. Got nothing against them either. A few things I've picked up on them is like with the GFDL, it takes a bit for it to initialize and get going, kind of confused in the early on with a storm. And, then, of course there's the BAM's, which I like to follow: shallow, deep and medium-as they all use different critieria. They're a tool in the box like the rest of 'em.
Member Since: July 9, 2006 Posts: 184 Comments: 29610
1340. Patrap
1:58 PM GMT on May 19, 2008
On a sad note.
I lost a friend at 2am Sun Morn.
Charles Kimble..a Good man.
Done in by Cancer.Diagnosed on May 8th. Gone 10 days later.

What they missed at the Hospital 3 months ago,as a torn rotator Cuff..Was Stage 4 Lung Cancer that metastasized thru his Body.
He went on and didnt go Back to the doc till the Ambulance came May 8th and took him to Hospice.
Dont be tough folks. Pain is a signal.
Now ..hes just gone.
If ya smoke..Quit.
If you dont.Dont start.
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 430 Comments: 131147
1338. weathermanwannabe
1:56 PM GMT on May 19, 2008
As usual, conditions are ripening for tropical development, and, we will be looking at the models for the next several weeks (both long-range and short-term)to see which of them are correct, or, which ones are less accurate.....Either way, rain will be very welcome in the SE and I am hoping for a few early season tropical storms for Florida to help with the drought and overall water levels.....
Member Since: August 8, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 9933
1337. nash28
1:55 PM GMT on May 19, 2008
Pat will be here all week.
Please tip your waitress and try the veal! I hear it's delicious!
Member Since: July 11, 2005 Posts: 190 Comments: 16972
1336. Patrap
1:54 PM GMT on May 19, 2008
I gotta get a Cymbal.
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 430 Comments: 131147
1335. nash28
1:54 PM GMT on May 19, 2008
ROFLMAO!!!!

I love Pat's zingers! Quick wit!
Member Since: July 11, 2005 Posts: 190 Comments: 16972
1334. presslord
1:54 PM GMT on May 19, 2008
OK...that's funny...I don't care who you are....
Member Since: August 13, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 10492
1333. Patrap
1:53 PM GMT on May 19, 2008
I know nash.
You should have seen My Junior Prom..
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 430 Comments: 131147
1332. nash28
1:52 PM GMT on May 19, 2008
Momma Nature does not care about dates.
Member Since: July 11, 2005 Posts: 190 Comments: 16972
1331. StormJunkie
1:51 PM GMT on May 19, 2008
1307 & 1313

I actually took that as a positive for potential development :~)
Member Since: August 17, 2005 Posts: 26 Comments: 16875
1330. TampaSpin
1:50 PM GMT on May 19, 2008
144hour CMC
Member Since: September 2, 2007 Posts: 179 Comments: 20450
1329. Patrap
1:50 PM GMT on May 19, 2008
West Carb is a Likely area ..and the Southern GOM.,..BOC.

All we need is a TS.

Allison did the Nasty in H-town first week of June 2001.

A wet wild one can bring the impact.
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 430 Comments: 131147
1328. presslord
1:49 PM GMT on May 19, 2008
Is it not also fair to say that Mother Nature may not necessarily recognize June 1 as a hard and certain date????
Member Since: August 13, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 10492
1327. Patrap
1:48 PM GMT on May 19, 2008
..Im being resuscitated..

Wait one.
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 430 Comments: 131147
1326. TampaSpin
1:47 PM GMT on May 19, 2008
Pat turtles usually get to the line first in forcasting......lol
Member Since: September 2, 2007 Posts: 179 Comments: 20450
1324. Patrap
1:46 PM GMT on May 19, 2008
Since Im not a Met.
Should I put a disclaimer?
I know everyone who does a Tropical Forecast Blog Here does.

Snicker..coff,hack,,wheeez..Faint..KLUNK
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 430 Comments: 131147
1323. Patrap
1:45 PM GMT on May 19, 2008
Im a Turtle..nash
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 430 Comments: 131147
1322. TampaSpin
1:45 PM GMT on May 19, 2008
Pat you mean the Season is almost here......lol OMG.
Member Since: September 2, 2007 Posts: 179 Comments: 20450
1321. nash28
1:43 PM GMT on May 19, 2008
LOL Pat!!!!
Member Since: July 11, 2005 Posts: 190 Comments: 16972
1320. nash28
1:44 PM GMT on May 19, 2008
Way to stick your neck out there pat:-)

JK:-)
Member Since: July 11, 2005 Posts: 190 Comments: 16972
1319. Patrap
1:43 PM GMT on May 19, 2008
What the Models all are showing is that the threshold for development is upon us.
Any good area,in sufficient SST's can and will probably form into a Low,at some time before June 1.
My only venture into forecasting..LOL
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 430 Comments: 131147
1318. TampaSpin
1:43 PM GMT on May 19, 2008
Shen....lmao
Member Since: September 2, 2007 Posts: 179 Comments: 20450
1316. nash28
1:41 PM GMT on May 19, 2008
I'm not sure MLC. I gonna try calling him on my lunch break to make sure he's ok. He hasn't updated his blog in two weeks.
Member Since: July 11, 2005 Posts: 190 Comments: 16972
1315. nash28
1:41 PM GMT on May 19, 2008
Yeah JP. It nailed the 2nd storm of the season and then was out to lunch the rest of the year.
Member Since: July 11, 2005 Posts: 190 Comments: 16972
1314. TampaSpin
1:40 PM GMT on May 19, 2008
Actually at 144hours the CMC does have low pressure just on South American looking to head into the South Central Carrib.
Member Since: September 2, 2007 Posts: 179 Comments: 20450
1313. ShenValleyFlyFish
1:40 PM GMT on May 19, 2008
1307. TampaSpin

Now you youngens listen to this feller. He knows what he's talking about. ROFL
Member Since: September 9, 2007 Posts: 36 Comments: 4687
1312. nash28
1:40 PM GMT on May 19, 2008
The Euro as of the 00z run only shows development in the EPAC at the 240hr mark.
Member Since: July 11, 2005 Posts: 190 Comments: 16972
1311. moonlightcowboy
1:40 PM GMT on May 19, 2008
Nash, where's StormW? Haven't seen him peek in here lately!
Member Since: July 9, 2006 Posts: 184 Comments: 29610
1310. Patrap
1:39 PM GMT on May 19, 2008
There is not any one Better Model out of the "Crown 4"
Consensus is the key.

Always.

Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 430 Comments: 131147
1308. nash28
1:37 PM GMT on May 19, 2008
If I am not mistaken, the CMC also nailed Barry several days out. It was the one that showed the anticyclone forming over Barry, allowing it to survive in that ridiculous wind shear.
Member Since: July 11, 2005 Posts: 190 Comments: 16972
1307. TampaSpin
1:36 PM GMT on May 19, 2008
Hey, If the CMC model has not picked up anything yet, it can't be anything developing......LMAO
Member Since: September 2, 2007 Posts: 179 Comments: 20450
1306. nash28
1:36 PM GMT on May 19, 2008
Not to step on Pat's toes, but I'll answer CCHS. Basically, one week is about as far out as you wanna go with accuracy. 168 hrs. If it is still showing this system by Wednesday, then we may have something.
Member Since: July 11, 2005 Posts: 190 Comments: 16972
1304. cchsweatherman
1:34 PM GMT on May 19, 2008
Just a question for Patrap. Could you define your window in considering the GFS model ouput? In other words, how far out in time, in your mind, can the GFS model go with some honorable accuracy?
Member Since: April 14, 2007 Posts: 8 Comments: 5169
1303. TampaSpin
1:34 PM GMT on May 19, 2008
Looks like the Pacific south of Panama could have something forming soon possibly looking at 456's satellite just posted.
Member Since: September 2, 2007 Posts: 179 Comments: 20450

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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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