First tropical wave of the year; Postcards V: Hurricane warning probabilities
The first respectable tropical wave of the year rolled off the coast of Africa into the tropical Atlantic today. While sea surface temperatures are too cold this time of year to support development of this tropical wave, today's event does serve as a reminder that hurricane season begins in just one month. Hurricane season in the Eastern Pacific begins May 15, and tropical waves such as this one sometimes serve as the nucleus for May tropical storms, once they cross Central America and enter the Eastern Pacific.
Figure 1. Visible satellite image from 12pm EDT May 2, 2008, showing the year's first African tropical wave. Image credit: Navy research lab, Monterey.
Hurricane conference news
The 28th Conference on Hurricanes and Tropical Meteorology in Orlando is over. A final postcard from the conference is below, and next week, I'll write some long letters about some of the presentations, focusing the hurricanes/global warming debate.
Hurricane warning probabilities
Hurricane specialist Michelle Mainelli of the National Hurricane Center evaluated the usefulness of NHC's new hurricane wind probabilities product. The product, which was developed via funding from the immensely valuable Joint Hurricane Testbed research project, provides users with information regarding the chances of experiencing winds of tropical storm force and hurricane force at specific locations within the five-day forecast period. They also indicate, in probabilistic terms, the range of possibilities regarding when these wind conditions could begin at specific locations (an important factor in the timing of evacuation orders). While these products are primarily intended for use by emergency managers (for decision-making) and the media (for communication of risk and uncertainty), the availability of the products via the NHC website makes it possible for anyone in the general public to use them for their own decision-making.
One of the significant challenges with the probabilities thus far has been relating them to coastal watches and warnings issued by the NHC. A hurricane watch is issued when hurricane conditions are possible within the watch area, generally within 36 hours. A hurricane warning is issued when hurricane conditions are expected within the warning area, generally within 24 hours (or less in some cases). Between 2000-2006, an area of coast under a hurricane watch actually received hurricane-force winds about 20% of the time, while areas under a hurricane warning got hurricane force winds 25% of the time. Mainelli's research shows that at the first issuance of a watch or warning, the new wind probability product typically gives a 10% chance of hurricane force winds impacting the end points of the watch/warning area. These probabilities increase to 32% at the center of the warning area. Her research will be used to help develop an automatic technique that will recommend to NHC forecasters exactly where to place their watches and warnings.
What's your forecast?
For those of you who have a hunch about how many tropical storms and hurricanes we'll see this year, you can log your forecast as part of our first ever "Wundercast" competition. It's a friendly competition between weather enthusiasts to determine the best of the best in weather forecasting. Don't worry if you do not have any experience in forecasting, learn from Weather Underground meteorologist--as well as experienced website community members--to become an expert forecaster. It's free, and you can sign up at http://www.wunderground.com/wundercast/. The first forecast day is Tuesday, May 13, and competitors will be forecasting for San Francisco, California for the first two weeks. Thereafter, you'll be asked to forecast for Omaha, Seattle, Philadelphia, and Miami.
Jeff Masters
Reader Comments
Page: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 — Blog Index
Shudder.slinks away cowering
3 weeks and hours now to the Season.
Plenty of time to do now, what everyone will be trying to do in Hours in a Hurricane event.
A BROAD TROUGH OF LOW PRES IS EMBEDDED WITHIN THE
ITCZ CENTERED IN THE VICINITY OF 94W. A 00Z QSCAT PASS CONFIRMS
THAT THE E-W ELONGATED CYCLONIC TURNING EVIDENT ON SHORTWAVE IR
IMAGES IS AT THE SFC...HOWEVER ASSOCIATED WINDS ARE LIGHT.
CONVECTION HAS EXPANDED AND DEEPENED OVER THE PAST COUPLE OF
HOURS BUT REMAINS DISORGANIZED. SCATTERED MODERATE IS FROM
9N-12N BETWEEN 92W-95W AND STRETCHED WITHIN THE ITCZ (OUTLINED
ABOVE). MANY OF THE NWP MODELS HAVE THIS WEAK FEATURE
INITIALIZED AND TRACK IT WEST-NORTHWEST AS A WEAK LOW OR OPEN
TROUGH ON THE S PERIPHERY OF A BUILDING LOW-MID LEVEL
RIDGE...AND THIS SCENARIO SEEMS REASONABLE.
Check you all later
April 25 2008 New Orleans Jazz Festival Robert Plant of Led Zeppelin with Alison Krauss The Battle of Evermore Live! Link
"..The sky is Filled with Good and Bad, that Mortals never know..."
Sheri
I hope we never in our lifetime see another Katrina. She really made a name for herself in my opinion. She messed up alot of states with her wrath.
Sheri
Hey Sheri!
Sorry to pass this on but unfortunately it may take another katrina like system to get folks in prep mode after such a low the past 2 seasons.I to hope never to see something of that magnitude go down again.
29 minutes ago
YANGON, Myanmar - A powerful cyclone killed more than 350 people, destroyed thousands of homes and knocked out power in the country's largest city, state-run media said Sunday.
Five regions of the impoverished Southeast Asian country have been declared disaster zones following Tropical Cyclone Nargis, which struck early Saturday with winds of up to 120 mph, the military-run Myaddy television station said.
It said at least 351 people were killed, including 109 who lived on Haing Gyi island off the country's southwest coast. Many of the others died in the low-lying Irrawaddy delta.
In the Irrawaddy's Labutta township, 75 percent of the buildings had collapsed, state television said.
"The Irrawaddy delta was hit extremely hard not only because of the wind and rain but because of the storm surge," said Chris Kaye, the U.N.'s acting humanitarian coordinator in Yangon. "The villages there have reportedly been completely flattened."
The U.N. planned to send teams Monday to assess the damage, he said. Initial assessment efforts have been hampered by roads clogged with debris and downed phone lines, he said.
"At the moment, we have such poor opportunity for communications that I can't really tell you very much," Kaye said.
Witnesses in Yangon said the storm's 120 mph winds blew the roofs off hundreds of houses, damaged hotels, schools and hospitals, and cut electricity to the entire city. The state-owned newspaper New Light of Myanmar reported Sunday that the international airport in Yangon remained shut.
Domestic flights have been diverted to the airport in Mandalay, it said.
"It's a bad situation. Almost all the houses are smashed. People are in a terrible situation," said a U.N. official in Yangon, who requested anonymity because she was not authorized to speak to the media.
"All the roads are blocked. There is no water. There is no electricity," she said.
Yangon residents ventured out Sunday to buy construction materials to repair their homes. The price of gasoline jumped from $2.50 to $10 a gallon on the black market and everything from eggs to construction supplies had tripled, residents said.
Some people expressed anger that the military-led government in Myanmar, also known as Burma, had done little so far to help with the cleanup.
"Where are all those uniformed people who are always ready to beat civilians?" said one man, who refused to be identified for fear of retribution. "They should come out in full force and help clean up the areas and restore electricity."
The Forum for Democracy in Burma and other dissident groups outside of Myanmar called on the international community to provide urgent humanitarian assistance and urged the military junta to allow aid groups to operate freely — something it has been reluctant to do in the past.
"International expertise in dealing with natural disasters is urgently required. The military regime is ill-prepared to deal with the aftermath of the cyclone," said Naing Aung, secretary general of the Thailand-based forum.
Michael Annear, a regional disaster management delegate for the International Federation of the Red Cross in Bangkok, said his agency had teams in Yangon on Sunday distributing shelter kits and other relief supplies.
The cyclone came at a delicate time for Myanmar, which is scheduled to hold a referendum May 10 on the country's military-backed draft constitution. Authorities have not yet said whether they would postpone the vote.
A military-managed national convention was held intermittently for 14 years to lay down guidelines for the country's new constitution.
The new constitution is supposed to be followed in 2010 by a general election. Both votes are elements of a "roadmap to democracy" drawn up by the junta, which has been in power for two decades.
Critics say the draft constitution is designed to cement military power and have urged citizens to vote no.
Its always in the back of our minds. With the daily reminders staring us right back in the eyes.
how can a cat 3 do all of that kind of mass that it did???
I can say this 23. Folks in the Katrina Impact Zone are not swayed by 2 seasons of little or no impacts.
Its always in the back of our minds. With the daily reminders staring us right back in the eyes.
I feel you pat, iam really hoping for a 3rd quite season for us in the U.S.
That said, it is the new folks in an area that really need to hear the stories of past storms as well as the advice of storm veterans. I can see where the transplants would be a pretty big issue in Fla. Help your local transplants understand the severity of these storms. Just my thoughts though.
In the Massive Super CAt 5's Taz..wind driven Cat-5 surge dont go away because the storm winds dropped below Saffir-Simpsons Scale Criteria..at or near landfall.
The SSS dosent relate well to Surge period. Nor impact from it.
Thus the ongoing debate to improve the scale to bring it more in line to surge Potential.
Its ALWAYS surge that causes the deaths and damage on a Large scale.
Always.
Dissipated August 30, 2005
Highest
winds 175 mph (280 km/h) (1-minute sustained)
Lowest pressure 902 mbar (hPa; 26.65 inHg)
Fatalities 1,836 total
Damage $81.2 billion (2005 USD)
$86 billion (2007 USD)
(Costliest Atlantic hurricane in history)
www.AdriansWeather.com
Sheri
Sheri
Nova M Radio in Phoenix. Link1480 wkpx
The volcano's eruption is pictured from Ayacara City. It was the first time it had erupted for thousands of years (EPA)
They share the real stories and info. Not just media mainstream fluff.
Give them a call one morning and share your story catastropheadjuster.
sheri
News coming out (slowly) from Myanmar reminds me of the first reports from Acheh earthquake/tsunami.
I've never been to Burma but I have been to Mae Hong Son which is now under flash flood warning due to Nargis. The Wats (churches) are generally built on the highest points of land if there happens to be such in the area. Mae Hong Son will be OK because it has some topographical relief. Chaing Mae on the other hand (also under flash flood alert) is fairly flat - if I was in that area I'd head for Doy Inthanon - one of the highest points in Thailand
Can you guys imagine if Miami got hit by a Katrina? I don't mean Homestead, but downtown Miami. And I don't mean a quick developing, fairly small diameter Andrew, but a mature, surge-pushing monster. Of course, the lack of a continental shelf off Miami will make it different.
This is one place I've seen that is in a real state of denial about it's vulnerability.
1) A high pressure system situated in the SE keeps the storm barely to the south of Tampa (wilma).
2) A front will steer the storm east quicker impeding its northern progression (Charley), or
3) A high pressure over the Atlantic will push the Storm directly north to la, ms, or panhandle...
Viewing: 351 - 382
Page: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 — Blog Index