Tropical development off the coast of Florida

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 4:08 PM GMT on September 04, 2005

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Two disturbances to watch off of the coast of Florida
The most serious threat in the tropics today is a large area of disturbed weather extending from Miami eastward over the Bahama Islands. Shear values are still probably a little too high--about 10-15 knots--to permit a tropical depression to form in this region today. However, the shear is rapidly decreasing, having fallen 10 knots in the past 24 hours, and is forecast to be 5-10 knots tomorrow. At this level, a tropical depression could form Monday or Tuesday. Several computer models, including the UKMET and NOGAPS, forecast that a strong tropical storm will form here and move slowly northward, threatening the Carolinas late in the week. The GFS model does not develop the system.

A second disturbance with a well-defined circulation visible on both visible satellite images and QuikSCAT data is located about 600 miles east of West Palm Beach, Florida. A concentrated area of deep convection has developed on the south side of the circulation center, and continues to build. Shear values in the region have dropped to 5-10 knots and continue to drop, and the conditions appear favorable for a tropical depression to form by tomorrow. The system is expected to move north and may threaten Bermuda.


Figure 1.Forecast track of tropical low 600 miles east of West Palm Beach, FL.

The Thursday GFS forecast was remarkably accurate--it correctly predicted tropical development in both of these areas, four days in advance!

African tropical waves
The tropical wave we've been watching cross the Atlantic for the past week is still out there, at 10N 53W, 500 miles east of the islands. This system is still too far south to develop significantly, but steering currents should start to push the system just far enough north for it to avoid being destroyed by passage over South America. We will continue to watch this system as it moves westward at 15 mph.

Hurricane Maria
Oh yes, there is a hurricane out there! Maria has a nice looking eye starting to develop, and should be a pretty sight on satellite images the next few days as she heads northward and then northeastward out to sea. Maria should make it to Category 2 and possibly Category 3 status before cold water and wind shear three days from now start taking their toll.

Jeff Masters

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203. MJH
4:04 PM GMT on September 07, 2005
What are you all looking at, that storm is getting pushed across florida. The most recent computer models show the same.
202. 8888888889gg
4:55 PM GMT on September 05, 2005
HI

IF THIS DOS MAKE LANDFALL IN THE Gulf AS A HURRICANE ALL I CAN SAY IS GOOD BY New Orleans

DAVID
201. 8888888889gg
4:03 PM GMT on September 05, 2005
HI


IF THE LOW DOS enters the Gulf WHERE WILL IT MAKE LANDFALL?
200. ejstrick
12:00 PM GMT on September 05, 2005
The long range radar from Miami shows a marked improvement in the low compared to last night. The LLC is evident about 100 mi. E of Miami.
Member Since: August 25, 2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 895
199. southbeachdude
11:45 AM GMT on September 05, 2005
Okay....the latest gfdl model run in not optimistic for SE Florida and then the Gulf Coast. Does anyone notice any steering currents that could be stronger/weaker than predicted. Katrina was predicted to hit well north of Miami but at the last moment it started moving south and almost everone was surprised....except the gfdl model. I am noticing a more south landfall each model run. Also, on the visible sat. it looks pretty pathetic, but once again I learned witht he last storm do not take the looks of a strom for granted as it is developing......
Member Since: July 29, 2005 Posts: 2 Comments: 696
198. ejstrick
10:54 AM GMT on September 05, 2005
Could I get a link Lefty?
Member Since: August 25, 2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 895
197. leftyy420
10:33 AM GMT on September 05, 2005
latesat gfdl bting the system off the florida coast west into the gulf and blows up a major hurricane and tracks it towards la. not a good thing at all. good thing is that the system has not formed and models are somewhat useless at this time
Member Since: August 24, 2005 Posts: 35 Comments: 1987
196. leftyy420
7:46 AM GMT on September 05, 2005
it appears from radar that the system off the florida coast is forming a llc, the llc is about 100 miles east of miami
Member Since: August 24, 2005 Posts: 35 Comments: 1987
195. hurricane79
6:05 AM GMT on September 05, 2005
The new gfdl run is out for the system East of FLorida. Takes it across Florida, and enters the Gulf just North of Tampa Bay. and moves WNW.
194. 8888888889gg
3:16 AM GMT on September 05, 2005
hi

i do not want to be up and down but i like to do live update when there a hurrican makeing landfall in the usa and i do is i rec on my tv and then i put then i ues my hp came to put it all in my lap top but this time around my last one hurricane maria is a no show and what i mean dy a no show is when they do not make landfall in the usa and when they go out to sea like maria did i call them a no show for then i would not get my live upday when the weather ch or cnn go out and the storm so i would like to no will TD15 and TD16 be a no show for me or will they not be a no show and make landfall so i can do my live upday on the weather ch at home and cnn too?

david
193. leftyy420
3:13 AM GMT on September 05, 2005
the tpc low position is based on more than sat and ir imagery. also it is a broad are of low pressure with no low level center or cirulation. ur assuming it is more orginised than it is.
Member Since: August 24, 2005 Posts: 35 Comments: 1987
192. 8888888889gg
2:57 AM GMT on September 05, 2005
hi

if this dos do pop up it to a tropical depression where will it go and will it hit the usa?
191. lowpressure
2:50 AM GMT on September 05, 2005
sorry........... tpc low is not right
190. lowpressure
2:40 AM GMT on September 05, 2005
1100 not 100 pm
189. lowpressure
2:37 AM GMT on September 05, 2005
i think td 15 may form at the 5 pmadvisory tomarrow if not the 1100 and 16 may form ( the one close to FL) at the 100 pm advisory tomarrow night if not ater
188. lowpressure
2:35 AM GMT on September 05, 2005
not yet 8888 everone else thinks its farther south but i think i COULD be there, however i d see the farther south location some r sugeting
187. 8888888889gg
2:17 AM GMT on September 05, 2005
hi

i see it on water vapor loop is it TD15?

186. lowpressure
2:17 AM GMT on September 05, 2005
79 ,, lefty .,,, storm r u there
185. lowpressure
2:14 AM GMT on September 05, 2005
i do have to say the latest water vapor and the GOES 12 offer convection sustained e ne of the NHC.... does anybody else see this
184. lowpressure
2:04 AM GMT on September 05, 2005
i mean by that developing low pressur systems to fast and deep
183. lowpressure
2:03 AM GMT on September 05, 2005
even if the GFS is online now, remember it over plays the strenght of ridges and suffers from feedback on a regular basis due to its robust troughts
182. lowpressure
2:01 AM GMT on September 05, 2005
i got ya 79, i just want to keep an eye on the far ne loacation just because nothing has been cnfirmed yet... alothought i do see your prespective and it does seem to be a real player to watch
181. 8888888889gg
1:55 AM GMT on September 05, 2005
hi

do we have a TD15 yet and where is it going what hop not it is going to la where the las one hit they do not need it right now it going to take 36 day to get the water out of there and the last thin they need if a hurrican comeing
180. hurricane79
1:40 AM GMT on September 05, 2005
lowpressure, I see what you are talking about. There is a band of storms to the South of that location developing, with some curvature. It is that curvature that leads me to believe that the Center is not ENE of the NHC location, but to the SE. Radar loops are also helping to confirm that.
179. lowpressure
1:37 AM GMT on September 05, 2005
it does seem the center could be south of there but that is a presestent bolg of convection if you look at the GOES interactive
178. lowpressure
1:33 AM GMT on September 05, 2005
does anybody else put the low about 75 miles e ne of the NHC.. i may br dead wrong but the t-storms have presisted there to and if that to the nw is a sign of banding trying to develop their low center is off.... some insight please
177. hurricane79
1:33 AM GMT on September 05, 2005
actually i am not sure if its a Katrina Blog or not??
176. hurricane79
1:31 AM GMT on September 05, 2005
New post
175. weatherguy03
1:24 AM GMT on September 05, 2005
Dont want it to get into Gulf...Please move more NW..lol..PLEASE...The only thing I know for sure is..Its gonna be a slow mover..lol..
Member Since: July 5, 2005 Posts: 590 Comments: 29698
174. hurricane79
1:20 AM GMT on September 05, 2005
the actual center developing is about 60 miles SE of that L
173. hurricane79
1:20 AM GMT on September 05, 2005
The NHC even has an overlay setup on the floater Satellite, click on NWS fronts on top of the images, you will see the Center location
172. hurricane79
1:18 AM GMT on September 05, 2005
Yes WG03, it looks like the new models think the ridge to the North will persist and move this system WNW.
171. weatherguy03
1:13 AM GMT on September 05, 2005
Here is AL94 graphically....Link
Member Since: July 5, 2005 Posts: 590 Comments: 29698
170. hurricane79
1:05 AM GMT on September 05, 2005
As I said before, the center of any low would be East of Homestead by about 100 miles, which is almost exactly the same location as the models are initialized 25.7N 78.3W
169. hurricane79
1:04 AM GMT on September 05, 2005
I dont think the low is that far North, and it appears that there is some disagreement among those at the TPC/NHC
168. ejstrick
1:01 AM GMT on September 05, 2005
Hey 79, they initialized the models too far south if you believe the NHC positioning this low at 27N 78W.
Member Since: August 25, 2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 895
167. weatherguy03
1:01 AM GMT on September 05, 2005
Floater 2 now over system near Florida....Link
Member Since: July 5, 2005 Posts: 590 Comments: 29698
166. hurricane79
12:59 AM GMT on September 05, 2005
Those new TPC models confirm my belief of the developind system in the Bahamas to move WNW then NW into the Central Florida Peninsula.
165. hurricane79
12:57 AM GMT on September 05, 2005
Okay, they re-entered the info for Invest 94L Here are the 00Z runs: Link
164. weatherguy03
12:56 AM GMT on September 05, 2005
Oh yeah it has been on and off, alot of rain coming in off ocean tonite.
Member Since: July 5, 2005 Posts: 590 Comments: 29698
163. cgableshurrycanegal
12:55 AM GMT on September 05, 2005
tessa, no, but when lefty gets back from dinner, maybe
Member Since: July 12, 2005 Posts: 24 Comments: 212
162. ejstrick
12:55 AM GMT on September 05, 2005
Tessa, have you tried the Katrina blog set up on this page?
You may be better served to go there if you don't receive satisfaction from this blog.
Member Since: August 25, 2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 895
161. tessa
12:52 AM GMT on September 05, 2005
Does anyone remember a woman who was here on the blog before Katrina hit and she told us she couldn't evacuate cos' her husband had a broke back? She had 2 little children. Does anyone remember where she was from and her name?
Member Since: July 7, 2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 16
160. ejstrick
12:47 AM GMT on September 05, 2005
Hey weatherguy is it raining there? It's pouring here!!
Member Since: August 25, 2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 895
159. weatherguy03
12:45 AM GMT on September 05, 2005
I thought it was near there earlier..who knows..lol..we will see.
Member Since: July 5, 2005 Posts: 590 Comments: 29698
158. ejstrick
12:45 AM GMT on September 05, 2005
I hear ya cgable.
Member Since: August 25, 2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 895
157. cgableshurrycanegal
12:42 AM GMT on September 05, 2005
ejs! they better monitor it! LOL, we already got dumped on once here, and we don't want any more... dang, we're still cleaning up debris and mopping up the muck. HOWEVER! noone is complaining in light of what happening to the Gulf.
Member Since: July 12, 2005 Posts: 24 Comments: 212
156. ejstrick
12:41 AM GMT on September 05, 2005
27N 78W Hmmm.... Further north than our consensus?
Member Since: August 25, 2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 895
155. cgableshurrycanegal
12:39 AM GMT on September 05, 2005
Hey willdd are you talking about that area east of Miami...Link

All that kind and worse was up off WPB earlier today, it seems to be see-sawing back and forth. We have to wait and see if it starts sitting in just one spot, it has been very spotty so far.
Member Since: July 12, 2005 Posts: 24 Comments: 212
154. ejstrick
12:39 AM GMT on September 05, 2005
Per the NHC 8:05 discussion. The Atlantic Ocean...
at 2100 UTC a 1010 mb low is located over the Bahamas near
27n78w. Scattered moderate convection is from 25n-28n between
75w-80w. This low will be closely monitored since it has good
upper level support.
Member Since: August 25, 2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 895
153. weatherguy03
12:31 AM GMT on September 05, 2005
Hey willdd are you talking about that area east of Miami...Link
Member Since: July 5, 2005 Posts: 590 Comments: 29698

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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.