Earth Day photos

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 7:02 PM GMT on April 21, 2008

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Tuesday, April 22, marks Earth Day. As has been my tradition, on Earth Day I share some of my favorite photos wunderground users have uploaded over the past year. The Earth's atmosphere is a fantastically beautiful and complicated creation, and I thank all of you who took the time to share the spectacular things you've seen with the rest of us!

I'll be back Wednesday to talk about the demise of this year's La NiƱa.

Jeff Masters

()
sunset rainbow (canderelli)
beautiful evening on the North Dakota plains
sunset rainbow
Thunderstorm (CameraGuy)
Lightning, stars, and airplane. This lightning strike was quite a ways from the rain area! (Photo 6)
Thunderstorm
Tonight's Aurora (Glacierwolf)
Small aurora that started right at sunset tonight. Stayed just a stream for most of an hour. Hopefully we will see more in the next few days. You can see more Northern Lights photos in my folder here and at my web site www.northpolegallery.com
Tonight's Aurora

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148. moonlightcowboy
8:49 PM CDT on April 21, 2008
Well, I'm a bit confused. The "anomaly" is what must be positive. But, negative values support the westerlies which enhance more/more intense activity.

It that a better conclusion?

Thanks, StormW! Have a good sleep!
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144. HurricaneKing
1:41 AM GMT on April 22, 2008
The Low off of NC is not tropical. It is just a Upper Level low with a weak surface reflection.
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143. moonlightcowboy
8:35 PM CDT on April 21, 2008
132. StormW 7:43 PM CDT on April 21, 2008
Yeah, Phil stated they don't much rely on the QBO data anymore since it hasn't worked in their forecast for years. But there has to be something to it...I mean it worked for them before.



Nice discussion, fellas. Ok, this is what I take from it: Westerlies favor more/more intense tropical formation. Westerlies are found with "negative" values as in the case of 2005 when record values were set as well as storms.

But, the real question is "why" are they not using it anymore. Surely, there's a reason "other than" it hasn't fit the forecast in the last couple of years? I'm curious - what have the values looked like following subsequent active years? Any coorelations that can be drawn? And, how do those values compare with ENSO?

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141. Weather456
9:31 PM AST on April 21, 2008
yep
Member Since: July 24, 2005 Posts: 407 Comments: 19076
139. HadesGodWyvern (Mod)
1:14 AM GMT on April 22, 2008
Bureau Of Meteorology - Perth
Tropical Cyclone Advice Number 11
0:00 AM UTC April 22, 2008

At 8:00 am WST a Tropical Cyclone Rosie [CAT 1] (988 hPa) located near 10.5S 104.8E has 10 minute sustained winds of 40 knots with gusts up to 55 knots. The cyclone is estimated to be 100 kilometres west of Christmas Island and moving southeast at 24 kilometres per hour.

Dvorak Intensity: T3.0

Tropical Cyclone Rosie may cause GALES with gusts to 100 kilometres per hour over Christmas Island today. Heavy rain can be expected today.

Tides will be higher than expected and combined with an increasing swell may cause flooding of low-lying areas possible. While winds are likely to ease later today a large swell is likely to continue.

Tropical Cyclone Alerts
-------------------------
A Cyclone Warning has been declared for Christmas Island

Cyclone Forecast and Intensity
------------------------------
12 HRS: 12.1S 105.3E - 50 knots [CAT 2]
24 HRS: 13.5S 105.5E - 45 knots [CAT 1]
48 HRS: 16.5S 104.7E - 30 knots [Tropical Low]
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138. Patrap
8:13 PM CDT on April 21, 2008
GOES-12 Ch-3 WV Loop of Tropical Basin Link

GOES-IR GOM Loop Link
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137. HurricaneGeek
9:08 PM EDT on April 21, 2008
Hey. I hope everyone is doing well. I'm back for a little while.

850 mb Vort. And on that same page you are able to see the shear which is not TOO bad, it is, howeve high (40 knots). And it is dropping... By the looks of this and the above, it's just my personal opinion that nothing will come, I could very well be wrong, we shall see, no?
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136. Weather456
9:11 PM AST on April 21, 2008
cool SW, I guess so
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134. Weather456
8:57 PM AST on April 21, 2008
There seems to be conflicting data

If we attach the number of name storms to the QBO values and phases it would appear activity is more in the easterly QBO than westerly:

2003-16
2004-15
2005-28
2006-10
2007-15

December 2004
Easterly anomalies of the QBO during the previous July indicate that the QBO will likely be in the west phase during the following year's hurricane season. The west phase of the QBO has been shown to provide favorable conditions for development of tropical cyclones in the deep tropics according to Gray et al. (1992, 1993, 1994) and Shapiro (1989).
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133. all4hurricanes
1:01 AM GMT on April 22, 2008
NE1 know the chances of this low becoming another Andrea?
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131. Weather456
8:38 PM AST on April 21, 2008
Sorry here's what it should be:

125. Weather456 8:35 PM AST on April 21, 2008
StormW, here is what I think:

Westerly Positive
Easterly Negative

Based on the 50 mb anomaly winds:

Summer 2004 - Positive values
Summer 2005 - Negative values
Summer 2006 - Positive values
Summer 2007 - Negative values
March 2008 - Negative values

Jan=====Feb=====Mar
-15.77 -13.30 -10.60
Member Since: July 24, 2005 Posts: 407 Comments: 19076
129. Drakoen
12:35 AM GMT on April 22, 2008
"thomas walsh wrote:
Thank you!
The only reason I was confused is that the anomaly for April @ the 50 mb level is -10.60, and at the 30 mb level it's 2.18.

The QBO typically builds downward from around 10 mb. So, it has just
switched sign from easterly to westerly at 30 mb.
It will likely be
westerly at 50 mb as well by this year's hurricane season."
Member Since: October 28, 2006 Posts: 57 Comments: 30486
128. extreme236
12:36 AM GMT on April 22, 2008
It looks like the SOI has stopped spiking downward, at least temporary. The 30-day average went up from 4.63 to 4.70.
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127. Weather456
8:36 PM AST on April 21, 2008
those were based on the 50 mb anomaly
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125. Weather456
8:29 PM AST on April 21, 2008
StormW, here is what I think:

Westerly Negative
Easterly Positive

Based on the 50 mb winds:

Summer 2004 - Positive values
Summer 2005 - Negative values
Summer 2006 - Positive values
Summer 2007 - Negative values
March 2008 - Negative values

Jan=====Feb=====Mar
-15.77 -13.30 -10.60
Member Since: July 24, 2005 Posts: 407 Comments: 19076
124. Drakoen
12:32 AM GMT on April 22, 2008
122. StormW 12:31 AM GMT on April 22, 2008
118. Weather456 8:26 PM EDT on April 21, 2008
StormW,


if this year's QBO is expected to be westerly that means that it was easterly in 2005? If so that would mean enhanced hurricane actvity this year.

Well, I think it has to do more with Intense Hurricanes. But, 2005 had to be westerly though (or maybe not) since we had 28 storms?


The links that you posted above showed negative values (easterly) for 2005 at 30mb and 50mb...
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121. Weather456
8:27 PM AST on April 21, 2008
From what I understand, the 50 mb anomaly is the best index to use would u agree????
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120. Drakoen
12:28 AM GMT on April 22, 2008
Sorry MLC i was out for dinner. The westerly phase of the QBO favors more tropical cyclones.
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119. Patrap
7:27 PM CDT on April 21, 2008
4,3,2,1,..Earth Below Us..



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118. Weather456
8:21 PM AST on April 21, 2008
StormW,


if this year's QBO is expected to be westerly that means that it was easterly in 2005? If so that would mean enhanced hurricane actvity this year.
Member Since: July 24, 2005 Posts: 407 Comments: 19076
117. mobal
7:23 PM CDT on April 21, 2008
Wow on the photos!
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115. ycd0108
12:19 AM GMT on April 22, 2008
Dang good photos!
Happy Earth Day
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114. Patrap
7:20 PM CDT on April 21, 2008
UNYSIS 10-day GFSx Link
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113. stormdude77
8:15 PM AST on April 21, 2008
Did anyone notice that the UKMET and the EURO models are forecasting a low to intensify (with tropical characteristics) east of Bermuda (around 32N, 60W), later this week?
112. HadesGodWyvern (Mod)
12:19 AM GMT on April 22, 2008
An area of convection (96S) located near 8.4S 87.5E or 600 NM west-northwest of Cocos Island. Animated infrared satellite imagery depicts a slowly consolidating disturbanec with formative convective banding. A 1923z AMSR-E image depicts a tightening low level circulation center with deep convective banding south wrapping into the western quadrant. Animated water vapor imagery indicates a developing anticyclone over the low level circulation center and upper level analysis indicates generally favorable conditions for further development with weak to moderate vertical wind shear and fair poleward outflow enhanced by broad midlatitude troughing southwest of the disturbance.

Maximum sustained winds near the center is 25-30 knots with a minimum sea level pressure near 1002 mb. The potential for this disturbance to form into a significant tropical cyclone within the next 24 hours is UPGRADED TO GOOD.

TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT HAS BEEN ISSUED. THIS ALERT MAY BE RE-ISSUED, CANCELLED, or UPGRADED TO A WARNING BY 2330 22APR.
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111. moonlightcowboy
7:12 PM CDT on April 21, 2008
Sorry, Shen; but, the "eatery" was baconized in post #25! ;~P
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110. ShenValleyFlyFish
6:53 PM EST on April 21, 2008
Good evening all.
Great picks Dr M Happy Earth Day


Started scanning blog at start and got all excited when I thought someone was getting ready to reveal great new Eatery they discoivered and then got this:

32. moonlightcowboy 3:38 PM EST on April 21, 2008
QBO = The QBO (quasi-biennial oscillation) is a quasi-periodic oscillation of the equatorial zonal wind . . .


Bummer. Thanks for nothing MLC ;~)




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108. moonlightcowboy
6:53 PM CDT on April 21, 2008
Ok, gentlemen, now, what's that mean? (layman's terms, now!) TIA
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107. Weather456
7:47 PM AST on April 21, 2008
So SW from that data.....when Gray mentioned the QBO was easterly in July 2004, the 50 mb anomaly was 7.01. Is this correct or the opposite??
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105. Drakoen
11:47 PM GMT on April 21, 2008
westerly at 50mb this season. Thats interesting. Very nice post StormW...
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103. Weather456
7:37 PM AST on April 21, 2008
hey sw
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102. moonlightcowboy
6:33 PM CDT on April 21, 2008
...that's good timing! LOL, just in time for the QBO discussion! Carry on gentlemen, plz! :)
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100. Weather456
7:25 PM AST on April 21, 2008
67. JFLORIDA 5:53 PM AST on April 21, 2008
yea 456 agree totally. Speaking of which how is jr doing?


doing good
Member Since: July 24, 2005 Posts: 407 Comments: 19076

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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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