Arctic sea ice melting season begins
The annual Arctic melting season has begun. We've just passed the Spring Equinox, so the North Pole is now in 24-hour daylight. Will the melting of Arctic sea ice this year surpass last year's record? Well, we have a greater areal extent of ice over the Arctic this month compared to April of last year, thanks to some cool Arctic temperatures this winter. In particular, the ice in the Bering Straight between Alaska and Russia extends quite a bit further south than in 2007. This extra ice will likely delay the melting season a bit this year, giving some hope that we won't surpass last year's record melt. However, if weather similar to last summer occurs--unusually clear skies and high pressure over the Arctic--this extra ice will not help much, because it is all thin, first-year ice. It is the thick, 2-9 year old ice that is most able to resist summer melting, and the amount of old multi-year ice is only about half of what it was in 2007. This is apparent from images taken by the QuikSCAT satellite, which carries the SeaWinds scatterometer. This instrument emits a pulse of microwave energy that bounces off the ice and returns to the satellite. Old, multi-year ice is thicker, and reflects a different amount of microwave energy back to the satellite than thin ice, resulting in a whiter image. Thin, first-year ice appears a darker grey. It is apparent from Figure 1 that we have only about half of the old, multi-year ice that we had last year. In fact, thin first-year ice extends past the North Pole, raising the distinct possibility that this year's melt will allow one to sail a ship all the way to the North Pole in September, for the first time since humans began testing Arctic waters with ships in 1497. In addition, a large region of the old ice north of Alaska is highly fractured, making it vulnerable to melting.
Figure 1. QuikSCAT images of the Arctic from April 4, 2007 and April 4, 2008. The boundary of old, multi-year ice is marked in yellow, and 2008 has about half the old ice of 2007. Image credit: NOAA/NESDIS/ORA.
How did we lose so much old ice in the past year?
Part of the lost old ice melted during the record-breaking melt season of 2007, which was fueled both by global warming and a natural (but unusual) sunny summer. Another big chunk of old ice was lost due to natural wind patterns between September 2007 and March 2008. An animation of the sea ice available from Environment Canada's sea ice page (click on "Updated QuikScat animation") reveals that strong winds pushed large amounts of old ice out of the Arctic southward along the east coast of Greenland. So, we can't blame the melting of the Arctic sea ice entirely on global warming--natural weather patterns also played a significant role.
The forecast
It's impossible to guess what the dominant Arctic weather pattern will be this summer, and what level of melting we will get. With the loss of so much old ice over the past year, though, even an average summer has the potential to melt much more ice this summer compared to last summer--all the way to the North Pole. There's also a good chance that we'll see the fabled Northwest Passage open up again, since most of the ice along the Passage is young, first-year ice. We'll just have to wait and see how the summer unfolds.
Jeff Masters
Reader Comments
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456, I'm assuming that the current high instability rates can change very much and that there is no guarantee that the ITCZ will still be this active come Cape Verde Season. Is that correct or are the current instability rates a good indicator that the ICTZ will continue to be very active?
If the instability is that high and the sun is not overhead yet or the mean heat low is not receiving max insolation, then imagine what could happen this Summer. Its only going to get warmer from here on. However, the instability should fluctuatea dn eb affected by changes in SAL.
Knowing that your prepared can and does ease the stress of NOT knowing what to do when the need arrives.
Stay Ahead of the Crush by having a Pre-determined evacuation Point.
Remember, Roads often become traffic clogged during an evacuation.Be sure your travel kit includes water, a first-aid kit, and other essential items one may need.
Be Ready,Be Prepared, Be informed.
I thought just by the look of the satellite photos they were showing that Hurricane Katrina still was a cat-4.Especially when they announced how high the storm surge was.I wonder if Katrina was undergoing an eye wall regeneration phase right before landfall.
Absolutely was. See here for a power point we presented at last year's Interdepartmental Hurricane Conference about the evolution of Katrina's eyewalls and observations supporting a double eyewall behavior. This has a lot do to with the extensive coverage of hurricane force winds and the amount of coastline devistated by the surge from a cat 3 (wink,tongue in cheek)
Charlton Heston dies..
Legendary actor and former NRA president Charlton Heston died at his Beverly Hills home last night at the age of 84. A family spokesperson said Heston died with his wife, Lydia, by his side.
AF: Climate Change Institute, Bryand Global Science Center University of Maine, Oronon, ME 04473, United States
AB: Radiocarbon dates of emergent organic remains along the western margin of Istorvet ice cap (70.8N, 22.2W) indicate a time when the ice cap was smaller than at present. This ice cap, similar to others in east Greenland, exhibits "historic" moraines ~1-2 km in front of the presently retreating ice margins. At Istorvet, ice margin retreat has exposed a thin (~8 cm) organic horizon and in situ plant remains in bedrock cracks lie less than 10 m away from the present ice margin (453 m asl in 2006). Clusters of multi-species vegetation also were found on two nuntaks (to 719 m asl) located ~3 km from the historic drift limit. All organic remains were located in protected bedrock lees. On the west side of the ice-cap, vegetation is sparse but present at elevations near the ice margin. Both the ice cap geometry and the presence of overrun organic remains indicate past temperatures at least as warm as those at present At Istorvet plant remains yielded 12 number of radiocarbon dates. These ages, when converted to calendar years, range from A.D. 400 to 1014, with the largest concentration from A.D. 800 to 1014. This work hones the conclusion of Funder (1978) who reported general climate deterioration since 800 BC. Moreover, it indicates warm conditons at this latitude at the time of Norse colonization of Greenland.
Organic Remains from the Istorvet Ice Cap, Liverpool Land, East Greenland: A Record of Late Holocene Climate Change
Butch gave a speech at the National Hurricane Conference this week,and is a Very informed on the Post-Katrina woes and victories hes seen.
Show Link.Link
Join Sarge this Sunday as 11 AM Eastern/8 AM Arizona time on U-Haul International's The Unreported News.Net Radio Show on Nova M Radio. This week, Sarge welcomes Butch Loper, Civil Defense Director for Jackson County, Mississippi and Brice Phillips of WQRZ-FM 103.5 in Waveland, Mississippi. They will discuss the continuing problems along the Gulf Coast in the wake of Hurricane Katrina, looking at such issues as housing and the mental and physical health of local residents.
(The Unreported News.Net site is experiencing technical difficulties that should be fixed soon.)
You can listen to the show live on Nova M Radio and 1480 KPHX Progressive Talk Phoenix. The Unreported News.Net Radio Show also airs on, WQRZ-FM 103.5 in Waveland, Missississippi. You can download a new promo for the show here.
Also, Debbie O'Dowd, an Arizona author, has written a work of juvenile fiction that explores the personal impact of the war in Iraq. The first promo is read by Leonard Clark who has been a frequent guest on the show, while the other promo is here.
You can call Sarge live at 1-800-989-1480 or 602-258-8800.
King Daevid Mackenzie also will have a commentary, and Audible Scribblings, his own half-hour show, airs one hour earlier on Nova M and KPHX Phoenix. Feel free to comment on the show blog or on the Unreported News.Net Radio Show forum on our message board.
According to an apparently apolitical article I stumbled across targeted to agro-futures investors, current cereal grains prices are not driven very much by ethanol production. What is driving the current prices is increasing demand from emerging markets as standards of living (still abysmal) rise. At this price point ethanol production is delivering less than normal return to the dollar and much less than unprocessed grain on the open market. This equals a -economic profit a situation more troubling than crotch lice to any rational capitalist. Ethanol plants in this country are currently operating at about 1/3 capacity. Needless to say, any irrational exuberance has long since left that market sector.
Palm oil and tropical forests are still cause for concern but wether prices in that commodity are driven more by bio-fuel or increased cooking oils demand is difficult to determine. Bio-fuel is definitely having an impact but more because of country-of-production substitution due to cost of imported fuel than increases driven by bio-diesel. In this country Bio-diesel is basically at a stand still quickly turning into a decline with partially constructed plants standing abandoned.
So it appears that just as GW fanatics are irrational in blaming all the worlds ills on greenhouse gases their opposite counterparts are in danger of falling in the same pit. LOL
I will try to drum up that reference. I'm having trouble remembering where I saw it. Couldn't be a senior moment, must be a brain fart.
Well Shen I doubt it is ever a good idea to burn food at anytime, but when there are worldwide shortages and food riots seems to be the hight of stupidity. But then again don't tell it to me tell it to Time magazine, not exactly a AGW opponent. lol But if you are ok with it more power to you :)
Excerpt From
The Clean Energy Scam
Propelled by mounting anxieties over soaring oil costs and climate change, biofuels have become the vanguard of the green-tech revolution, the trendy way for politicians and corporations to show they're serious about finding alternative sources of energy and in the process slowing global warming. The U.S. quintupled its production of ethanol--ethyl alcohol, a fuel distilled from plant matter--in the past decade, and Washington has just mandated another fivefold increase in renewable fuels over the next decade. Europe has similarly aggressive biofuel mandates and subsidies, and Brazil's filling stations no longer even offer plain gasoline. Worldwide investment in biofuels rose from $5 billion in 1995 to $38 billion in 2005 and is expected to top $100 billion by 2010, thanks to investors like Richard Branson and George Soros, GE and BP, Ford and Shell, Cargill and the Carlyle Group. Renewable fuels has become one of those motherhood-and-apple-pie catchphrases, as unobjectionable as the troops or the middle class.
But several new studies show the biofuel boom is doing exactly the opposite of what its proponents intended: it's dramatically accelerating global warming, imperiling the planet in the name of saving it. Corn ethanol, always environmentally suspect, turns out to be environmentally disastrous. Even cellulosic ethanol made from switchgrass, which has been promoted by eco-activists and eco-investors as well as by President Bush as the fuel of the future, looks less green than oil-derived gasoline.
More scattered thunderstorm activity is possible later this afternoon.
Radar image at 0800 UTC....
Hurricane23 look at Satelite of The GOM....huh breaking up?
If you read my post correctly lol i was referring to the squall line that came through earlier this morning which brought gusty winds and very heavy rain to southeast florida.
I have a question. How many of you have been eating a wonderfully prepared meal (Kristy has spoiled me on these over the years) and thought, "I have a better idea for this food. I am going to burn this food and heat the house. Or maybe I can convert it to automobile fuel and burn it in my car?" Who, in their right mind, thinks that this is a good idea? Time's up! No sane person can really think this is a good idea.
The strange bedfellows of environmentalists, congressmen, senators, the president, and large agribusiness corporations think this is a terrific idea. But then again, no one usually accuses any of these people of being sane. The "Energy Independence Act" of some year made burning our food supply (think ethanol production) our national policy.
Before you think that this is really about reducing our carbon footprint as a nation, remember that, in addition to burning up our food supply, we imposed a heavy tariff on imported ethanol. So, if a country can produce this "green" fuel more cheaply and efficiently using sugar cane or sugar beets, they are taxed to prevent them from competing with U.S. farmers. Did they really think this one through or is the farm lobby really this powerful? I think it is probably a little bit of both....
i should be getting rain later. thats if the storms dont break up
In most cases not all, the energy will be lost by the time it reaches southeast florida.I do expect more scattered thunderstorms to affect south florida later today as the atmosphere trys to recover and most likely with the temps reaching 80-84 degrees things should begin to pop.Anything that does develop will push into the metro areas.
.
23, the rain that fell over S.Florida will add moisture to any convection that tries to form. Don't let the blue skies fool you. I bet storms pop quickly now that sun is out.
I do expect more scattered thunderstorms to affect south florida later today as the atmosphere trys to recover and most likely with the temps reaching 80-84 degrees things should begin to pop.Anything that does develop will push into the metro areas.
I wouldn't be surprised if those numbers about the ice cap have some relation to volcanic eruptions since such eruptions are similar to the effects of pollution-caused climate change. In fact, there are two eruptions I'd consider candidates - the Krakatau eruption @400 A.D. and the El Chichon eruption @ 780 A.D. If this data is correct and there is indeed a connection to these huge caldera-forming eruptions, then we could view these events as "miniature" "natural" versions of global warming processes, as opposed to man-caused forms of global warming which may be more permanent and extensive.
Just my 2 cents...
GULF OF MEXICO/NORTHWEST ATLANTIC OCEAN WEST OF 50W....
Surface observations indicated that a frontal boundary extends 22N/94W 26N/89W 33N/81W. Mid-upper level dry flow south of a weak negatively tilt upper trough over the Rockies is resulting in fair to partly cloudy skies across Mexico, the South-central United States and the Western Gulf of Mexico. Consequently, only scattered low clouds exist along the front south of 27N. Scattered moderate to strong convection and thundershowers lies over the Northeast Gulf and across Northern Florida and the Southeast United States. Southerly return flow continues over the Gulf between low pressure in the west and high pressure in the Atlantic. This flow is partly responsible for fueling convection to the north and producing 10-20 knot and swells of 5-6 ft.
A band of showers and thunderstorms are affecting the Northern Bahamian Islands and the coastal waters between 80W and 75W. The combinations of upper divergence...in the left entrance region of a deep layer ridge over the Atlantic...and surface convergence induced by a trough are the culprits in producing this activity. Meanwhile, the aforementioned deep layer ridge is situated near 27N/59W based on QuikSCAT sea winds. The ridge is supporting a dry airmass and deep layer flow across the Western Atlantic.
CENTRAL AMERICA AND THE CARIBBEAN REGION....
This deep layer ridge continues into the Caribbean providing 10-20 knot trades and mainly surface fair weather. The trades will advect widely scattered patches of cloudiness inducing an isolated shower or two here and there. A 10 ft swell surge continues to push west through the basin now located between 70W and 80W. Seas and winds have begun to diminish across the Eastern Caribbean with 6-8 ft swells over Caribbean waters and 10 ft over Atlantic waters. Small craft advisory remains in effect.
by W456
BACKGROUND INFORMATION ON BIOFUEL IMPORTS
Palm oil is being increasingly imported into the United States as a source to make biodiesel, particularly from Southeast Asian countries such as Indonesia and Malaysia. A 100-million gallon a year biodiesel refinery being built along the Pacific coast in Washington State is expected to import significant sums of palm oil.1 Refineries in Texas are also expected to imports palm oil supplies.
Unfortunately, palm oil production is a major source of environmental degradation and destructive land use patterns in Southeast Asia, particularly due to deforestation and wetland conversion tied to the spread of massive palm oil plantations. Nearly 50 percent of currently productive palm oil plantations in Southeast Asian countries is planted on land that was recently converted from forest.2 In Malaysia, palm oil plantations have caused 87 percent of total deforestation between 1985 and 2000.3
Widespread deforestation in Malaysia and Indonesia has caused severe damage to the area’s rich biodiversity. Rare mammals, such as the Sumatran tiger, the Sumatran orangutan, the Asian elephant and the Sumatran rhinoceros, have become endangered or critically endangered, and it is estimated that orangutans will be extinct by 2016 as a result of palm oil-related deforestation.4 The deforestation also contributes substantially to global warming when greenhouse gases are released during the clearing of the rainforest.
Meanwhile, a quarter of all palm oil plantations are established over converted peatlands, a critical kind of wetlands, leading to substantial biodiversity loss. Moreover, in order to convert peatlands into palm plantations, they are drained and burned, creating enormous greenhouse gas emissions that make palm oil ten worse than conventional fossil fuels in terms of global warming pollution.5
Brazil: Sugarcane and Soybeans
In recent years, Brazil produced more than 4 billion gallons of ethanol, absorbing more than 50 percent of the sugarcane harvest grown in the country.6 7 In 2006, more than 100 million gallons of fuel-grade ethanol was imported into the United States from Brazil.8
Sugarcane production in Brazil frequently encroaches on previously occupied lands, particularly agricultural areas that have earlier been converted from wild grasslands and other native ecosystems. Often, as sugarcane plantations occupy these areas, environmental harm spreads when crop and livestock production relocate into wild and native ecosystems – including Brazil’s cerrado, a tropical savannah and the most biologically rich grasslands in the world.9 10 The further expansion of the sugarcane ethanol industry, which already occupies more than 13 million acres, is likely to spread directly into wild and native ecosystems such as the cerrado.11
Meanwhile, the sugarcane industry in Brazil has been widely known for its use of child labor and substandard worker health conditions caused by the burning of cane fields. A recent study also documented the decline by half in workers’ incomes over the past twenty years.12
Although soybean production for biodiesel is not as well established as sugarcane ethanol in Brazil, the potential for soybean biodiesel production to cause harm to Brazil’s sensitive ecosystems is great. Between 1995 and 2005, overall soybean production almost doubled to occupy 22.3 million hectares, substantially increasing the pressure on the rainforest frontier.13 Soybean production occurs at times in areas cleared of rainforest, but also frequently drives deforestation by displacing cattle producers who then clear rainforest land for grazing.
The continued growth of sugarcane ethanol and soy biodiesel production will significantly increase the intense pressures facing these valuable ecosystems and areas rich in biodiversity. As with palm oil production, the impacts may also increase global warming pollution when grasslands and forests are cleared and greenhouse gases are released as a result.
For more information, contact David Waskow at (202) 222-0716.
Sources:
1 Seattle Times, “Can Biodiesel Compete on Price?” February 14, 2007. 2 Eric Wakker. “Greasy palms: The social and ecological impacts of large-scale oil palm plantation development in Southeast Asia.” Jan. 2005. United Kingdom: Friends of the Earth. 3 Helen Buckland. “The oil for ape scandal: How palm oil is threatening the orangutan.” Sep. 2005. United Kingdom: Friends of the Earth Trust. 4 Buckland. 5 Alijosja Hooijer, Marcel Silvius, Henk Wosten and Susan Page. “Peat-CO2, Assessment of CO2 emissions from drained peatlands in SE Asia.” 2006. Delft Hydraulics report Q3943, Wetlands International. 6 Delcio Rodrigues and Lucia Ortiz. “Case Study Sugar Can Ethanol from Brazil: Sustainability of ethanol from brazil in the context of demanded biofuels imports by the Netherlands.” 7 Edward Smeets, Martin Junginger, Ande Faaij, Arnaldo Walter and Paulo Dolzan. “Sustainability of Brazilian bio-ethanol.” Aug. 2006. Ultrecht, the Netherlans: Copernicus Institute at Utrecht University. 8 Ethanol import data based on United States International Trade Commission data, found at http://dataweb.usitc.gov. 9 Rodrigues and Ortiz. 10 Conservation International. “Cerrado.” 2007. Conservation International. 11 Rodriguez and Ortiz. 12 Rodriguez and Ortiz. 13 Franz J. Kaltner, Gil Floro P. Azevedo, Ivonice A. Campos, and Agenor O. F. Mundim. “Liquid Biofuels for Transportation in Brazil: Potential Implications for Sustainable Agriculture and Energy in the 21st Century.” Nov. 2005. German Technical Cooperation.
From Page 3
That same problem threatens Mokee's ancestoral homeland. There are several species of smaller tree dwelling wild cats from that area. 1 or Mo's ancestors is from there; the Asian Leopard. I hope that SUV is worth killing Mo's ancestors. Once their habitat is gone, the only chance for survival is hybridization then domestication. That strikes a nerve with me.
From the SPC SREF Ensemble and convective outlooks for tomorrow it looks like Monday will have conditions favorable for the development of a very dangerous and organized tornado outbreak. Bulk/directional shear is a component that many outbreaks have been lacking this season so far ... but the LLJ (Low Level Jet) will intensify through the afternoon and bring between 30 and 40 knots of shear over parts of Oklahoma (and I think even parts of Nebraska/Northern Texas) which will support the formation of a number of tornadic supercells.
From the new SPC discussion (12:07 PM) (the probabilities of severe weather have risen significantly; from 15% to a 30% and hatched area)
12Z BRO SOUNDING AND CURRENT SURFACE/BUOY OBSERVATIONS INDICATE A
MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER RETURNING NWD THROUGH S TX AND THE NWRN GULF OF
MEXICO. THE ONSET OF CYCLOGENESIS OVER THE SRN PLAINS TONIGHT WILL
HASTEN THE NWD RETURN OF THIS MOISTURE WITH DEWPOINTS INCREASING
THROUGH THE 50S TO LOWER 60S S OF RETREATING WARM FRONT MONDAY.
Cluster Events.PDF: Link
CLUSTER TORNADO OUTBREAK IN HOUSTON, TX
by Tim Marshall
Storm Track, January/February 1993
Copyright 1993 Tim Marshall
On November 21, 1992, a concentrated and very unique series of tornadoes struck the Houston, Texas metropolitan area. Six tornadoes occurred within Harris County from four tornadic storms. At one time, there were three tornadoes on the ground simulatenously in the same county! The most damaging tornado (F4) developed in the Channelview suburb, on the east side of Houston. This tornado began as a thin rope and widened dramatically into a wedge shape (3/4 of a mile wide) within two miles of its inception. I cannot recall such a slow moving, cluster outbreak of tornadoes this far south and this late in the season. Link
Patrap's linked article explains one occurence of a cluster tornado event.
As far as I know, a cluster tornado event is composed of a series of tornadic storms located very close to each other. Sometimes the storms are located so close that they appear as one large cell with multiple vortices. It isn't really a term that the SPC uses very often; I couldn't find it on any of the weather glossaries that I know of.
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