Cyclopsychic research breakthrough proves hurricanes/global warming connection

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 12:16 PM GMT on April 01, 2008

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A stunning new breakthrough in hurricane research has conclusively settled the matter: global warming is making Atlantic hurricanes and tropical storms more frequent. The new research, accepted for publication later this millennium in The Journal of Irreproducible Results, offers incontrovertible proof that global warming has increased Atlantic named storms by 57-67% over the past century. Using the pioneering new techniques of cyclopsychic storm detection and psychomortorodentiatempestology, the researchers, Professors Peter Webcaster and Judith Flurryfury of the Georgia Institute of Technophobia, and Dr. Greg Hallmonitor of the Colorado Association for Research and Modeling of the Atmosphere (CARMA), showed unequivocally that the lack of satellite measurements and aircraft reconnaissance in the early part of the hurricane record led to only a modest undercount of Atlantic tropical storms. Thus, more than half of the observed increase in named storms in the past century can be attributed to global warming.

"It's well-known that the number of Atlantic named storms has risen from 7-9 per year 100 years ago to 14-15 per year during the present active hurricane period that began in 1995," commented Professor Webcaster in an interview today. "Some MEEAT-loving hurricane researchers (Measure Everything, Everywhere, All the Time) have claimed that this rise was not real, since satellites and reconnaissance aircraft were not around to detect storms early in the hurricane record. We've made efforts in the past to quantify the number of 'missed' historical Atlantic storms using estimates of historical shipping traffic density, and computer regression models that compare recent well-observed storm activity to past storm activity. However, these studies have been pooh-poohed by the MEEAT men, who refuse to believe any science that comes out of a model. So, I began thinking about how we could actually go about observing historical Atlantic storms that were 'missed'. I began thinking the problem in a new light after watching my favorite episode of Star Trek: The Next Generation, "Timescape", where subspace entity mistakenly lays her eggs in the warp core singularity of a Romulan warship, creating a temporal anomaly that forces time to flow backwards. This inspired me to think outside the box, and it occurred to me that paranormal methods might offer a way to see back in time and make actual observations of past storms--and offer a technophobic solution to the problem, as encouraged by the charter of my university, the Georgia Institute of Technophobia."



Figure 1. Cyclopsychic observations of "missing" Atlantic tropical storms during the 20th century. All observations were performed by trained cyclopsychic Madame Cyclotropia. Note the significant drop in "missed" storms beginning in the 1940s, corresponding to the advent of aircraft reconnaissance, and in the 1970s, when satellite coverage of the Atlantic Ocean began.

Webcaster teamed with Hallmonitor and Flurryfury to experiment with a variety of paranormal techniques to make actual observations of past "missing" storms, using Ouija Boards, crystal ball gazing, the Magic Eight Ball, and channeling of restless dead spirits. Initial experiments proved discouraging, though, when the researchers attempted to perform the study themselves. "We were feeling depressed about how the research was going, having just stayed up late one Friday night in Greg's lab in Boulder trying to get the dang Magic Eight Ball to say something other than just REPLY HAZY, TRY AGAIN LATER," related Dr. Webcaster. "So, we decided to give up for the night and down a few shots of grape jello spiked with grain alcohol and delve into Greg's extensive collection of Zippy the Pinhead comic books. After a few jello shots and Zippy comics, we got feeling pretty loose, and, Yow! Decided to trek down to Pearl Street to check out the weekend psychic fair. Well, we got to staggering around the tents of the psychic fair, belting out the sorrowful lyrics of our own version of "Somewhere over the rainbow" we made up:

Somewhere, over the ocean
Back in time
Cyclones formed and decayed
Unseen by humankind

Somehow, we'll find out how many
Before we die
But it doesn't look good
'Cause the Magic Eight Ball lies!

Suddenly, we saw a mysterious shadowy figure beckoning to us from the entrance of a nearby tent, which was emblazoned with the words, Madame Cyclotropia: Psychic Readings for Troubled Atmospheric Scientists. 'I can help you find your missing storms', the seer in the shadows croaked, 'for I know much that is hidden. Come into my lair, and I will reveal the key to unlocking the mysteries of storms long past'. Greg and I looked at each other, shrugged, walked in her tent, and the rest is history."

Once in Madame Cyclotropia's tent, the researchers quickly realized that their limited scientific training could not hope to allow them to conduct rigorous paranormal research. Only a true cyclopsychic with "The Gift" could see back into the dim mists of time to divine the existence of heretofore unknown tropical cyclones. Using her cyclopsychic gift, Madame Cyclotropia correctly divined the past tracks of numerous known storms the scientists challenged her with. However, when asked to divine the existence of "missing" Atlantic storms that had not made it into the official database, she prophesied that she would only be able to do so if the scientists would write her into their latest grant proposal. This grant proposal would surely get funded, she predicted. The scientists eagerly agreed, and headed back to the lab to work on the new proposal.

Webcaster, Hallmonitor, and Flurryfury's proposal, titled, "Using a Trained Cyclopsychic to Divine Past Atlantic Tropical Cyclone Activity", was submitted to the Foundation for Atmospheric Research for Science and Education (FARSE) in early 2007 and accepted later that year. After receiving their grant money, the scientists began spending long nights in Madame Cyclotropia's tent, documenting her revelations from the four primary cyclopsychic techniques: Ouija Board, crystal ball gazing, the Magic Eight Ball, and channeling of restless dead spirits. According to Dr. Hallmonitor, "We were thrilled when the first three techniques we tried all yielded virtually identical results, showing the robustness of our experimental methodology. The three techniques all showed a noticeable drop in the number of "missed" storms in the 1940s, when aircraft reconnaissance became available, and in the 1970s, when satellites coverage began over the Atlantic Ocean. However, when we tried to channel restless dead spirits, we ran into a roadblock. We couldn't find any restless dead spirits with an interest or knowledge of historical Atlantic hurricanes. We happily attributed this to the propensity of dead meteorologists to wind up inside Heaven's Pearly Gates, but were sad that our research would lack this crucial final proof of its validity. We were about to give up when Peter then hit upon the idea of contacting the spirits of groundhogs, who are known for their weather prognosticating ability. Some of these prognosticating rodents might have unfinished business that would keep their restless souls adrift in the ether, available for consultation on weather-related matters. We coined word psychomortorodentiatempestology to describe this exciting new branch of hurricane science, and set off in search of gifted groundhogs spirits with this special skill."



Figure 2. Wee Willy One and Chucky before their departure into the hereafter. Which rodent's spirit would you trust to get accurate weather information from?

Indeed, Madame Cyclotropia was able to contact the spirit of "Wee Willy One", a famed albino groundhog that had once burrowed under the fair gardens of Wiarton, Ontario, and provided weather forecasts each Groundhog's Day up until his death in 2006. Wee Willy One proved to be testy and uncooperative, though, deliberately delivering incorrect storm information. The researchers sought out help from cyclotherapy experts from the Center for Disease Control's Weather Related Illness Division to determine if cyclotherapy might help Wee Willy One overcome his bad attitude. Cyclotherapist Dr. Sandy Chirpchuckle diagnosed Wee Willy One as a cyclopath suffering from rare form of cyclopsychosis. Ordinarily, cyclopsychosis manifests itself only in hurricane scientists and weather enthusiasts during the long, dull months prior to hurricane season. The despondent victims of cyclopsychosis spend long hours in front of flickering computer monitors in dark, gloomy rooms, obsessively poring over maps and statistics of hurricanes long gone by. The victims tend to become highly antisocial but never violent, and can be successfully treated with cycloactive drugs. However, Dr. Chirpchuckle diagnosed Wee Willy One with an extremely rare case of "shadow" cyclopsychosis, brought on by the cyclological trauma being rudely hauled out of his burrow each February 2 so that a bunch of cockamaimie humans could see whether he saw his shadow or not. "Shadow" cyclopsychosis is incurable, both in this world and the hereafter, so Madame Cyclotropia was forced to seek out other groundhog spirits. After months of effort, she finally found the spirit of "Chucky", a friendly groundhog that had once burrowed under the gardens of Nashville, Tennessee. Chucky eagerly provided accurate information on the "missing" Atlantic tropical storms that was precisely in agreement with the data collected from the other cyclopsychic techniques. "We were ecstatic," exclaimed Dr. Hallmonitor. "More jello shots!"

Hurricane experts world-wide are hailing the new findings. "These exciting results conclusively prove that even us blind squirrels can find some nuts," enthused renown hurricane expert, Dr. Kerry Readthemanual of the Massachusetts Institute of Technophobia. Dr. Readthemanual has been a leading proponent of the global warming/Atlantic hurricane link. Even former critics are praising the new findings. Dr. William Graymatter, Professor Über-Emeritus of Colorado State University's Center for Hurricane Observation, Measurement, and Prediction (CHOMP), said in an interview: "I've been in the hurricane business for 113 years, and I know good research when I see it. The findings of Webcaster, Hallmonitor, and Flurryfury are based on solid observational evidence and white magic. There's no black magic involved, such as the use of a computer model, so their results are impregnable."

Dr. Chris Blandsee, Chief Scientist of the Natural Hurricane Center's division of Global Warming Isn't Responsible for the Recent Upswing in Atlantic Hurricane Activity, and Even If It Was, We Wouldn't be Able to Tell, Since the Quality of the Atlantic Hurricane Database is Too Poor to Use for Such Purposes (NHC/GWIRRUAHAEIIWWWATSQAHDTPUSP), has also been critical of past research showing a link between hurricanes and global warming, maintaining that global warming isn't responsible for the recent upswing in Atlantic hurricane activity, and even if it was, we wouldn't be able to tell, since the quality of the Atlantic hurricane database is too poor to use for such purposes. It was his Congressional testimony, along with that of former NHC director Max Minefield, which inspired President Bushwhacker's administration to rename the National Hurricane Center the "Natural Hurricane Center" last year. (This action was also urged by the Government Anagram Accountability Office (GAAO), which found that the letters in "National Hurricane Center" could be rearranged to spell the ominous phrase, "Errant Herculean Inaction"--and also the disturbing, "Teenier Charlatan Unicorn", and the clearly unacceptable, "Inhale Cocaine, Errant Runt!", while the letters in "Natural Hurricane Center" could be rearranged to form phrases much more in harmony with the NHC mission, such as "Natural, Neater, Crunchier.")

Dr. Blandsee grudgingly gave ground in his comments today. "It looks like Webcaster, Hallmonitor, and Flurryfury (and don't try to say her name three times fast) have done some pretty rigorous scientific work," he conceded. "But they've written what is probably the longest and most excruciatingly dull hurricane science paper of all time. All those old storms and their analyzed tracks that they talk about, on and on and on, year by year by year. Ugh! A lot of good trees died to publish that paper. It was even duller than some of my clunkers!"

What's next for the pioneering researchers? "Well, CARMA and the Georgia Institute of Technophobia are collaborating on a grant proposal with Dr. Graymatter and Phil Flossblack of CHOMP to apply cyclopsychic methods in a new way--improvement of seasonal hurricane forecasts," said Dr. Flurryfury. "We've submitted a proposal to FARSE titled, 'Gray Magic: Using Cyclopsychic Methods to Improve Seasonal Hurricane Forecasts'. Lord knows, the forecast busts of the past two hurricane seasons have shown that Flossblack and Dr. Graymatter could use some supernatural help with their predictions."

April Fools!
Meff Jasters

References
Hallmonitor, G.J., and P.J. Webcaster, 2007, "Heightened tropical cyclone activity in the North Atlantic: natural variability or climate trend?" Philosophical Transactions of The Royal Society A 365, Number 1860, 15 November 2007, Pages: 26952716 DOI: 10.1098/rsta.2007.2083

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1008. Patrap
12:20 PM CDT on April 05, 2008
To be sure, a Hurricane cant derive any additional strengthening from the Everglades, Cyclogenesis feedback needs deeper water,by tens of meters deeper than any available there,the best it can do is maintain, but friction always takes a toll,to a landfalling storm..

Another myth is that Max winds circle the Eye in Secs,,not by any means. If a Eyewall interior circumference is 200 miles, a wind would have to be moving at an faster than Orbital speed to complete a rev in a sec.
The shuttle moving at 17,000mph only travels 300 miles in 60 seconds.
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1007. Ivansrvivr
5:19 PM GMT on April 05, 2008
456 that is the group that got it right. there was another that claimed Ivan was a cat 1 at landfall. (Some college set up wind measuring devices not figuring the would blow away or lose power.
1006. Ivansrvivr
5:10 PM GMT on April 05, 2008
456, post the 0730 2 degree map from Ivan sept 16. it shows the momentum side of a storm perfectly.
1005. Ivansrvivr
4:59 PM GMT on April 05, 2008
The big factor what made Ivan much worse was the ERC that took place overhead and the extra time it caused the Pensacola area to be basically in the eyewall twice, on top of Ivan being slower moving. I had a radar image of ivan posted on my last blog that showed 2 distinct eyewalls on the north and east side but none on the SW side. Wilma was very fast mover which helped reduce damage overall but made momentum side stronger. Wilma and Ivan were both intensifying. Wilma fed on the Glades and drop in "relative" shear. Ivan's pressure fell 6mb (from 937 to 931) just as making landfall. thiat didnt have time to translate into max sustained ect. but no doubt increased damage Strengthening storms are much nastier than stable/weakening ones.
1004. Weather456
1:06 PM AST on April 05, 2008
1003. Ivansrvivr 12:59 PM AST on April 05, 2008
456 what group did you get that info from? There were 2 post ivan estimates. there was 1 group that grossly underestimated how far inland it's winds went because all power was lost to data equipment..


Yeah it came from the Hurricane Research Division (HRD). The images presented is updated and changed as new data becomes available.
Member Since: July 24, 2005 Posts: 407 Comments: 19076
1003. Ivansrvivr
4:53 PM GMT on April 05, 2008
456 what group did you get that info from? There were 2 post ivan estimates. there was 1 group that grossly underestimated how far inland it's winds went because all power was lost to data equipment..
1002. Ivansrvivr
4:49 PM GMT on April 05, 2008
with 100+mph winds, wind completely circles the eye in seconds so a max sustained wind is average and doesnt' take motion into account.
1001. Patrap
4:49 PM GMT on April 05, 2008
A good field of study for those interested


ART

Visualization of General Relativistic DataLink
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1000. Weather456
12:49 PM AST on April 05, 2008
the values are in knots
Member Since: July 24, 2005 Posts: 407 Comments: 19076
999. Weather456
12:33 PM AST on April 05, 2008
Ivan, ur are correct with the Wilma Statement and this post analysis of Wilma Winds from September 2007 supports it. Notice how the strongest winds were to the south of the path of motion or right of motion.

Wilma



Ivan




Member Since: July 24, 2005 Posts: 407 Comments: 19076
998. Patrap
4:45 PM GMT on April 05, 2008
Visualizing Hurricane Katrina
Supercomputing 2005 Link

Technology can take us into the storm now. Link
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997. SouthDadeFish
4:33 PM GMT on April 05, 2008
I thought they count the movement of the tropical cyclone into its maximum wind speed. Or am i mistaken?
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996. Ivansrvivr
4:19 PM GMT on April 05, 2008
Katrina's windfield was as amazing as her Eye. We had Hurricane force sustained winds in Pensacola. There was even surge damage toward the big bend area Katrina was very large and very strong. Size matters alot in hurricanes. I believe it should be considered in rating them.

456, you are correct about the right front quad or "momentum" side of storm. When a storm is moving N at 20 mph, the side with the wind direction and motion same you add forward speed to winds. The side there motion and wind direction are opposite you subtract that same 20 mph from wind speed. As Wilma Moved NE over peninsula, the southern side of eyewall had momentum aiding winds so Southern PBC and Broward got hit the worst.
Ivan hit west of Pensacola and was moving N@18mph last I heard so on east side of eyewall add 18mph to winds.
994. StormStalker85
3:56 PM GMT on April 05, 2008
I found a cyclone in the 2005 season that formed on Dec 30 and persisted into January of 2006.

When Tropical Storm Zeta formed on December 30, it came second only to Hurricane Alice (also December 30, 1954, but later in the day) as the latest ever that the last storm of the season formed. Zeta also became only the second storm, after Alice, to persist through the end of year and still be active at the start of the next. In addition, Zeta was the longest-lived tropical cyclone to form in December and cross over into the next year, and it was also the longest-lived January tropical cyclone.
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993. hahaguy
10:52 AM EST on April 05, 2008
456,thanks for answering my question
Member Since: August 12, 2007 Posts: 2 Comments: 2838
992. Weather456
11:27 AM AST on April 05, 2008
your*
Member Since: July 24, 2005 Posts: 407 Comments: 19076
991. Weather456
11:12 AM AST on April 05, 2008
h23 great videos on our hurricane andrew page.
Member Since: July 24, 2005 Posts: 407 Comments: 19076
990. KEEPEROFTHEGATE (Mod)
3:12 PM GMT on April 05, 2008
456 go for the 695 a month deal it dosent hurt the pocket book as much iam also a wea. tap user as well
Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 175 Comments: 54827
989. weathermanwannabe
11:14 AM EDT on April 05, 2008
Good Morning....My kid is at a Wilderness Camp in Mlton, Florida (NE of Pensacola) and no telephones.....Anyone know how strong the storms/weather is in those parts this AM? (other than the radar loops I'm looking at)..Thanks
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988. hydrus
2:42 PM GMT on April 05, 2008
Hurricane23-Good info on andrew page.
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987. Weather456
10:35 AM AST on April 05, 2008
973. hurricane23 10:19 AM AST on April 05, 2008
456 glad to see you purchased an account with weathertap....There is no faster updates then w-tap.If youre on the free trial i highly recommend you to give the software a shot you will not regret it.Ive been with weathertap since 03.I also own GR3.


I will try out the software...I find the website will come in handy this hurricane season.
Member Since: July 24, 2005 Posts: 407 Comments: 19076
986. Stormchaser2007
2:37 PM GMT on April 05, 2008
It's also warming up pretty fast of the South American coast pretty fast, La Nina is fading fast.

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985. gulfcoastdweller
9:36 AM CDT on April 05, 2008
nice site 23
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984. Stormchaser2007
2:35 PM GMT on April 05, 2008
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983. hydrus
2:31 PM GMT on April 05, 2008
Hurricane23-Those are some really scary satellite pics you posted.Gave me that sick feeling i remember so well.
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982. Patrap
9:33 AM CDT on April 05, 2008
The Landfall flight Aug 29th 2005

Mission Summary
20050829I1 Aircraft 43RF
Katrina flight 2005 Link

BBL..this server is in the mud this morning.
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981. Stormchaser2007
2:35 PM GMT on April 05, 2008
Shear is below average for much of the Atlantic now....
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980. gulfcoastdweller
9:31 AM CDT on April 05, 2008
nice pic Patrap
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979. hurricane23
10:29 AM EDT on April 05, 2008
My Hurricane Andrew Page
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978. Patrap
9:28 AM CDT on April 05, 2008
Katrina s Eye from Within, from the NOAA Lockheed WP-3D Orion Plane Link

Katrina missions 2005

Below are mission summaries for Katrina aircraft missionsLink
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977. hydrus
2:23 PM GMT on April 05, 2008
PATRAP-yes,i know-i,m sorry.
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976. gulfcoastdweller
9:25 AM CDT on April 05, 2008
I can never get over how big Katrina's eye was
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975. Patrap
9:22 AM CDT on April 05, 2008
Andrew struck here 2 days later.
And took lives in Se La as well.Link

Effects of Hurricane Andrew (1992) on Wetlands in Southern Florida and Louisiana Link
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974. hydrus
2:18 PM GMT on April 05, 2008
PATRAP-YES,I had the unwanted privelage of meeting Andrew on august 24 1992.
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973. hurricane23
10:19 AM EDT on April 05, 2008
456 glad to see you purchased an account with weathertap....There is no faster updates then w-tap.If youre on the free trial i highly recommend you to give the software a shot you will not regret it.Ive been with weathertap since 03.I also own GR3.

Here are a few examples from 05!

Take a look this incredible satelitte loop i saved from katrina as it was near its peak in the gulf.



Here is hurricane rita exploding.

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972. Patrap
9:15 AM CDT on April 05, 2008
I dont count or bother with Foo-Foo storms,..Link


92 was all about Andrew..,the Cat-5 Link

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971. TampaSpin
10:08 AM EDT on April 05, 2008
Possible vortex south of Hawkinsville GA...
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970. hydrus
2:08 PM GMT on April 05, 2008
PATRAP-Both of these storms in particular formed in 1992.
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969. Patrap
9:07 AM CDT on April 05, 2008
A good read here..Link

1. Introduction Return to TOC

The North Atlantic is one of the most frequent cyclone occurrence regions in the Northern Hemisphere. Cyclones occurred there could have strong impacts on the weather and climate of the eastern United States, eastern Canada, southern Greenland, Iceland, and western Europe. Early studies of the cyclone climatology and the long-term variations over the North America and the North Atlantic regions (Reitan 1974, 1979; Colucci 1976; Zishka and Smith 1980; Hayden 1981; Whittaker and Horn 1981) were performed by identifying the cyclone features on synoptic charts and tracking the features manually. They found that there are clear long-term changes of cyclone frequency in the North America and the North Atlantic regions.
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968. Patrap
8:59 AM CDT on April 05, 2008
December to May

Further information: Off-season storms

Few tropical cyclones can be found in the time between seasons, though about one-third of the years between 1944 and 2005 experienced an off-season tropical or subtropical cyclone. In the 61 seasons between 1944 and 2005, 8 tropical cyclones formed in May, 7 in December, and 4 total for all four months between January and April. High vertical wind shear and low sea surface temperatures generally preclude formation. Though a tropical cyclone has been observed in the Atlantic basin in every month in the year, no tropical cyclone is officially documented to have initially formed in January. A subtropical cyclone formed in January in the 1978 season, and both Hurricane Alice and Tropical Storm Zeta formed in December and lasted into January.
Link

I dont know specifically, but try here maybe..Google List Link
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967. hahaguy
8:55 AM EST on April 05, 2008
dam i must of hit the post button a few more times . woops
Member Since: August 12, 2007 Posts: 2 Comments: 2838
966. hahaguy
8:55 AM EST on April 05, 2008
already 81f here
Member Since: August 12, 2007 Posts: 2 Comments: 2838
965. hahaguy
8:55 AM EST on April 05, 2008
i have never seen a storm form in january ,thats interesting
Member Since: August 12, 2007 Posts: 2 Comments: 2838
964. hydrus
1:49 PM GMT on April 05, 2008
PATRAP-I was going thru the hurricane history archives last night.I found some interesting data on two cyclones,one that formed in January and one that formed in May.They were debating wether or not they were tropical in structure.The sat pics i saw sure looked like the storms had tropical characteristics.If you have any info on this i would greatly appreciate your input.
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963. Weather456
9:47 AM AST on April 05, 2008
Member Since: July 24, 2005 Posts: 407 Comments: 19076
962. Patrap
8:33 AM CDT on April 05, 2008
Up and atum..coolish here now. Link

63.9 F / 17.7 C
Overcast
Humidity: 98%
Dew Point: 63 F / 17 C
Wind: 4.9 mph / 7.9 km/h / 2.2 m/s from the NW
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961. gulfcoastdweller
8:30 AM CDT on April 05, 2008
woo hoo Patrap rockin'out this morning!
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960. Patrap
8:30 AM CDT on April 05, 2008
Statement as of 5:26 AM CDT on April 05, 2008

The National Weather Service in New Orleans has issued an

* urban and small stream flood advisory for...
Jefferson Parish in southeast Louisiana...
this includes the cities of... Timberlane... Metairie... Marrero...
Kenner... Harvey... Avondale...
Orleans Parish in southeast Louisiana...
this includes the cities of... New Orleans... east New Orleans...
St. Bernard Parish in southeast Louisiana...
this includes the city of Chalmette...
St. Charles Parish in southeast Louisiana...
St. Tammany Parish in southeast Louisiana...
this includes the cities of... Slidell... Eden Isle...

* until 930 am CDT


The Line is Passed, the N wind is in,,was quite the Light Show overnight. Impressive Rain totals...

nola radar Link
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959. Patrap
8:29 AM CDT on April 05, 2008
UNYSIS 10-day GFSx Link
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958. hydrus
1:07 PM GMT on April 05, 2008
At least the forcasts are saying that the southern half of florida has a decent chance of significant rain thru tuesday.
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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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