Cyclopsychic research breakthrough proves hurricanes/global warming connection

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 12:16 PM GMT on April 01, 2008

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A stunning new breakthrough in hurricane research has conclusively settled the matter: global warming is making Atlantic hurricanes and tropical storms more frequent. The new research, accepted for publication later this millennium in The Journal of Irreproducible Results, offers incontrovertible proof that global warming has increased Atlantic named storms by 57-67% over the past century. Using the pioneering new techniques of cyclopsychic storm detection and psychomortorodentiatempestology, the researchers, Professors Peter Webcaster and Judith Flurryfury of the Georgia Institute of Technophobia, and Dr. Greg Hallmonitor of the Colorado Association for Research and Modeling of the Atmosphere (CARMA), showed unequivocally that the lack of satellite measurements and aircraft reconnaissance in the early part of the hurricane record led to only a modest undercount of Atlantic tropical storms. Thus, more than half of the observed increase in named storms in the past century can be attributed to global warming.

"It's well-known that the number of Atlantic named storms has risen from 7-9 per year 100 years ago to 14-15 per year during the present active hurricane period that began in 1995," commented Professor Webcaster in an interview today. "Some MEEAT-loving hurricane researchers (Measure Everything, Everywhere, All the Time) have claimed that this rise was not real, since satellites and reconnaissance aircraft were not around to detect storms early in the hurricane record. We've made efforts in the past to quantify the number of 'missed' historical Atlantic storms using estimates of historical shipping traffic density, and computer regression models that compare recent well-observed storm activity to past storm activity. However, these studies have been pooh-poohed by the MEEAT men, who refuse to believe any science that comes out of a model. So, I began thinking about how we could actually go about observing historical Atlantic storms that were 'missed'. I began thinking the problem in a new light after watching my favorite episode of Star Trek: The Next Generation, "Timescape", where subspace entity mistakenly lays her eggs in the warp core singularity of a Romulan warship, creating a temporal anomaly that forces time to flow backwards. This inspired me to think outside the box, and it occurred to me that paranormal methods might offer a way to see back in time and make actual observations of past storms--and offer a technophobic solution to the problem, as encouraged by the charter of my university, the Georgia Institute of Technophobia."



Figure 1. Cyclopsychic observations of "missing" Atlantic tropical storms during the 20th century. All observations were performed by trained cyclopsychic Madame Cyclotropia. Note the significant drop in "missed" storms beginning in the 1940s, corresponding to the advent of aircraft reconnaissance, and in the 1970s, when satellite coverage of the Atlantic Ocean began.

Webcaster teamed with Hallmonitor and Flurryfury to experiment with a variety of paranormal techniques to make actual observations of past "missing" storms, using Ouija Boards, crystal ball gazing, the Magic Eight Ball, and channeling of restless dead spirits. Initial experiments proved discouraging, though, when the researchers attempted to perform the study themselves. "We were feeling depressed about how the research was going, having just stayed up late one Friday night in Greg's lab in Boulder trying to get the dang Magic Eight Ball to say something other than just REPLY HAZY, TRY AGAIN LATER," related Dr. Webcaster. "So, we decided to give up for the night and down a few shots of grape jello spiked with grain alcohol and delve into Greg's extensive collection of Zippy the Pinhead comic books. After a few jello shots and Zippy comics, we got feeling pretty loose, and, Yow! Decided to trek down to Pearl Street to check out the weekend psychic fair. Well, we got to staggering around the tents of the psychic fair, belting out the sorrowful lyrics of our own version of "Somewhere over the rainbow" we made up:

Somewhere, over the ocean
Back in time
Cyclones formed and decayed
Unseen by humankind

Somehow, we'll find out how many
Before we die
But it doesn't look good
'Cause the Magic Eight Ball lies!

Suddenly, we saw a mysterious shadowy figure beckoning to us from the entrance of a nearby tent, which was emblazoned with the words, Madame Cyclotropia: Psychic Readings for Troubled Atmospheric Scientists. 'I can help you find your missing storms', the seer in the shadows croaked, 'for I know much that is hidden. Come into my lair, and I will reveal the key to unlocking the mysteries of storms long past'. Greg and I looked at each other, shrugged, walked in her tent, and the rest is history."

Once in Madame Cyclotropia's tent, the researchers quickly realized that their limited scientific training could not hope to allow them to conduct rigorous paranormal research. Only a true cyclopsychic with "The Gift" could see back into the dim mists of time to divine the existence of heretofore unknown tropical cyclones. Using her cyclopsychic gift, Madame Cyclotropia correctly divined the past tracks of numerous known storms the scientists challenged her with. However, when asked to divine the existence of "missing" Atlantic storms that had not made it into the official database, she prophesied that she would only be able to do so if the scientists would write her into their latest grant proposal. This grant proposal would surely get funded, she predicted. The scientists eagerly agreed, and headed back to the lab to work on the new proposal.

Webcaster, Hallmonitor, and Flurryfury's proposal, titled, "Using a Trained Cyclopsychic to Divine Past Atlantic Tropical Cyclone Activity", was submitted to the Foundation for Atmospheric Research for Science and Education (FARSE) in early 2007 and accepted later that year. After receiving their grant money, the scientists began spending long nights in Madame Cyclotropia's tent, documenting her revelations from the four primary cyclopsychic techniques: Ouija Board, crystal ball gazing, the Magic Eight Ball, and channeling of restless dead spirits. According to Dr. Hallmonitor, "We were thrilled when the first three techniques we tried all yielded virtually identical results, showing the robustness of our experimental methodology. The three techniques all showed a noticeable drop in the number of "missed" storms in the 1940s, when aircraft reconnaissance became available, and in the 1970s, when satellites coverage began over the Atlantic Ocean. However, when we tried to channel restless dead spirits, we ran into a roadblock. We couldn't find any restless dead spirits with an interest or knowledge of historical Atlantic hurricanes. We happily attributed this to the propensity of dead meteorologists to wind up inside Heaven's Pearly Gates, but were sad that our research would lack this crucial final proof of its validity. We were about to give up when Peter then hit upon the idea of contacting the spirits of groundhogs, who are known for their weather prognosticating ability. Some of these prognosticating rodents might have unfinished business that would keep their restless souls adrift in the ether, available for consultation on weather-related matters. We coined word psychomortorodentiatempestology to describe this exciting new branch of hurricane science, and set off in search of gifted groundhogs spirits with this special skill."



Figure 2. Wee Willy One and Chucky before their departure into the hereafter. Which rodent's spirit would you trust to get accurate weather information from?

Indeed, Madame Cyclotropia was able to contact the spirit of "Wee Willy One", a famed albino groundhog that had once burrowed under the fair gardens of Wiarton, Ontario, and provided weather forecasts each Groundhog's Day up until his death in 2006. Wee Willy One proved to be testy and uncooperative, though, deliberately delivering incorrect storm information. The researchers sought out help from cyclotherapy experts from the Center for Disease Control's Weather Related Illness Division to determine if cyclotherapy might help Wee Willy One overcome his bad attitude. Cyclotherapist Dr. Sandy Chirpchuckle diagnosed Wee Willy One as a cyclopath suffering from rare form of cyclopsychosis. Ordinarily, cyclopsychosis manifests itself only in hurricane scientists and weather enthusiasts during the long, dull months prior to hurricane season. The despondent victims of cyclopsychosis spend long hours in front of flickering computer monitors in dark, gloomy rooms, obsessively poring over maps and statistics of hurricanes long gone by. The victims tend to become highly antisocial but never violent, and can be successfully treated with cycloactive drugs. However, Dr. Chirpchuckle diagnosed Wee Willy One with an extremely rare case of "shadow" cyclopsychosis, brought on by the cyclological trauma being rudely hauled out of his burrow each February 2 so that a bunch of cockamaimie humans could see whether he saw his shadow or not. "Shadow" cyclopsychosis is incurable, both in this world and the hereafter, so Madame Cyclotropia was forced to seek out other groundhog spirits. After months of effort, she finally found the spirit of "Chucky", a friendly groundhog that had once burrowed under the gardens of Nashville, Tennessee. Chucky eagerly provided accurate information on the "missing" Atlantic tropical storms that was precisely in agreement with the data collected from the other cyclopsychic techniques. "We were ecstatic," exclaimed Dr. Hallmonitor. "More jello shots!"

Hurricane experts world-wide are hailing the new findings. "These exciting results conclusively prove that even us blind squirrels can find some nuts," enthused renown hurricane expert, Dr. Kerry Readthemanual of the Massachusetts Institute of Technophobia. Dr. Readthemanual has been a leading proponent of the global warming/Atlantic hurricane link. Even former critics are praising the new findings. Dr. William Graymatter, Professor Über-Emeritus of Colorado State University's Center for Hurricane Observation, Measurement, and Prediction (CHOMP), said in an interview: "I've been in the hurricane business for 113 years, and I know good research when I see it. The findings of Webcaster, Hallmonitor, and Flurryfury are based on solid observational evidence and white magic. There's no black magic involved, such as the use of a computer model, so their results are impregnable."

Dr. Chris Blandsee, Chief Scientist of the Natural Hurricane Center's division of Global Warming Isn't Responsible for the Recent Upswing in Atlantic Hurricane Activity, and Even If It Was, We Wouldn't be Able to Tell, Since the Quality of the Atlantic Hurricane Database is Too Poor to Use for Such Purposes (NHC/GWIRRUAHAEIIWWWATSQAHDTPUSP), has also been critical of past research showing a link between hurricanes and global warming, maintaining that global warming isn't responsible for the recent upswing in Atlantic hurricane activity, and even if it was, we wouldn't be able to tell, since the quality of the Atlantic hurricane database is too poor to use for such purposes. It was his Congressional testimony, along with that of former NHC director Max Minefield, which inspired President Bushwhacker's administration to rename the National Hurricane Center the "Natural Hurricane Center" last year. (This action was also urged by the Government Anagram Accountability Office (GAAO), which found that the letters in "National Hurricane Center" could be rearranged to spell the ominous phrase, "Errant Herculean Inaction"--and also the disturbing, "Teenier Charlatan Unicorn", and the clearly unacceptable, "Inhale Cocaine, Errant Runt!", while the letters in "Natural Hurricane Center" could be rearranged to form phrases much more in harmony with the NHC mission, such as "Natural, Neater, Crunchier.")

Dr. Blandsee grudgingly gave ground in his comments today. "It looks like Webcaster, Hallmonitor, and Flurryfury (and don't try to say her name three times fast) have done some pretty rigorous scientific work," he conceded. "But they've written what is probably the longest and most excruciatingly dull hurricane science paper of all time. All those old storms and their analyzed tracks that they talk about, on and on and on, year by year by year. Ugh! A lot of good trees died to publish that paper. It was even duller than some of my clunkers!"

What's next for the pioneering researchers? "Well, CARMA and the Georgia Institute of Technophobia are collaborating on a grant proposal with Dr. Graymatter and Phil Flossblack of CHOMP to apply cyclopsychic methods in a new way--improvement of seasonal hurricane forecasts," said Dr. Flurryfury. "We've submitted a proposal to FARSE titled, 'Gray Magic: Using Cyclopsychic Methods to Improve Seasonal Hurricane Forecasts'. Lord knows, the forecast busts of the past two hurricane seasons have shown that Flossblack and Dr. Graymatter could use some supernatural help with their predictions."

April Fools!
Meff Jasters

References
Hallmonitor, G.J., and P.J. Webcaster, 2007, "Heightened tropical cyclone activity in the North Atlantic: natural variability or climate trend?" Philosophical Transactions of The Royal Society A 365, Number 1860, 15 November 2007, Pages: 26952716 DOI: 10.1098/rsta.2007.2083

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1058. moonlightcowboy
2:05 PM CDT on April 05, 2008
Apparently, HCS is only being used in a "post storm analysis" form in the present. And, according to the report I was just browsing, has no significant plans to replace the SSS. Yet, I can't help but wonder that some new classification could help save lives and assist emergency management with various protocols, etc.
Member Since: July 9, 2006 Posts: 184 Comments: 29594
1057. NorthxCakalaky
6:56 PM GMT on April 05, 2008
The National Weather Service in Wilmington NC has issued a

* Tornado Warning for...
central Bladen County in southeast North Carolina

* until 315 PM EDT

* at 252 PM EDT... National Weather Service Doppler radar indicated a
severe thunderstorm capable of producing a tornado near Smiths
Crossroads... or about 11 miles east of Elizabethtown... moving
northeast at 30 mph.

* The tornado is expected to be near...
Smiths Crossroads by 300 PM...

When a Tornado Warning is issued based on Doppler radar... it means
that strong rotation has been detected in the storm. A tornado may
already be on the ground... or is expected to develop shortly. If you
are in the path of this dangerous storm... move indoors and to the
lowest level of the building. Stay away from windows. If driving... do
not seek shelter under a Highway overpass.

Get under a workbench or other piece of sturdy furniture. Seek
shelter on the lowest floor of the building in an interior hallway or
room such as a closet. Use blankets or pillows to cover your body and
always stay away from windows.

If in Mobile homes or vehicles... evacuate them and get inside a
substantial shelter. If no shelter is available... lie flat in the
nearest ditch or other low spot and cover your head with your hands.

Lat... Lon 3474 7838 3471 7837 3469 7833 3466 7831
3462 7831 3461 7830 3451 7842 3464 7857
3478 7842
time... Mot... loc 1853z 225deg 30kt 3465 7841




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1056. Ivansrvivr
6:51 PM GMT on April 05, 2008
456 remember that a hurricane's winds go around and into the storm. The highest sustained winds (in the eyewall) aren't going in a straight line. The winds are circulating which means that sustained wind for 1 minute would go around at least half the eyewall and would not just be on one side of the storm.
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1055. moonlightcowboy
1:50 PM CDT on April 05, 2008
Pat, is there any way "we" can follow the HCS scale with an approaching storm? Is it used with every storm? A link?
Member Since: July 9, 2006 Posts: 184 Comments: 29594
1054. moonlightcowboy
1:47 PM CDT on April 05, 2008
STL, that may be the answer - forward motion is already factored in to the "max sustained" winds. Yeah, I think that was the resolve from last year's discussion. Thanks.
Member Since: July 9, 2006 Posts: 184 Comments: 29594
1053. NorthxCakalaky
6:40 PM GMT on April 05, 2008
N.C Drought fading away. 1-5+ of rain has fell state wide.Every week for the few past weeks we have been improving.Watch for dramatic changes in the drought area next Thursday as they update the map.

Next good rain chance will be Thursday or later next week as of now.
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1052. Patrap
2:43 PM EDT on April 05, 2008

It is not used by the NOAA/NHC period MLC.
But the Private,and some State sectors use it for impact potential .
To many in the upper echelons of the NOAA and NHC group have strong resistance to tamper with the SSS.
But the trend is leaning more toward revision, every season now.
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1051. moonlightcowboy
1:38 PM CDT on April 05, 2008
Good point, Ivan, too!

Pat, I wonder if the new(experimental?) HCS scale is being used "side-by-side" (if you will) with the SSS? Seems that its synchronistic use would be helpful, at least in a transition to a new scale, or addendum to the SSS sytem. I'd like to see it used along side the SSS because it would give a more accurate account of a storm's possible consequences. I'm surprised the insurance lobby hasn't mandated it.
Member Since: July 9, 2006 Posts: 184 Comments: 29594
1050. SouthDadeFish
6:39 PM GMT on April 05, 2008
Also Frances had a greater storm surge I would imagine because it had previously been a category four and had been a hurricane for many days before making landfall.
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1048. hydrus
6:18 PM GMT on April 05, 2008
Thanks for the info.After all the years i have lived in florida and all of the hurricanes and tropical storms i have witnessed(Charley being the strongest as far as windspeed is concerned)i never thought we were going to be hit with such a small but powerful storm.It looked so insignificant in the eastern carribean,that we didnt give much thought in the begining of charley being much of a threat.It was always the hurricanes with the large diameters that always seem to hit or effect us here in S.W.FLWhen the storm hit,it only lasted an hour.When Jeanne hit it lasted almost a day.
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1047. Ivansrvivr
6:37 PM GMT on April 05, 2008
winfield size should also be a factor.
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1046. Patrap
2:38 PM EDT on April 05, 2008


A Postlandfall Hurricane Classification System for the United States PDF: Link
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1045. Patrap
2:34 PM EDT on April 05, 2008
You see it clearly MLC. Theres a lot of room for improvement.
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1044. Ivansrvivr
6:31 PM GMT on April 05, 2008
Frances did more us money damage the Jeanne but was far weaker why? Duration over populated area. Ivan did more than charley and nearly topped Jeanne and Francis combined despite landfalling in an area with less than 1/10th the population of the other landfall areas why? Duration.


Hurricane Charley 8/9-8/15 145 947 Category 4 $14000million

Hurricane Frances 8/25-9/10 145 937 Category 2 $9000million

Hurricane Ivan 9/2-9/24 165 910 Category 3 $14200million

Hurricane Jeanne 9/13-9/29 120 951 Category 3 $6900million

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1043. moonlightcowboy
1:30 PM CDT on April 05, 2008
Pat, again, good point! With that scenario, a slow moving Cat 2 could be considerably more dangerous with "surge factor" build up, than a fast moving Cat 3, that has no "surge factor" build up time. So, again, a classification problem, but in reverse and with possible more deadly and destructive consequences.
Member Since: July 9, 2006 Posts: 184 Comments: 29594
1042. Patrap
2:31 PM EDT on April 05, 2008
The debate and discussion on the topic has been underway for about 5 years now, on a Professional level.

2003 Seattle Annual Meeting (November 25, 2003)
Paper No. 180-9
Presentation Time: 3:30 PM-3:45 PM
A NEW HURRICANE COASTAL IMPACT SCALE CONTINUED WORK Link


More recent here,
Published: 01:45 EST, September 27, 2006
New Hurricane Classification System Can Better Assess the Human Experience
The loss of life and homes due to Hurricane Katrina was a monumental blow. A new study introduces a new scale in which to classify hurricanes by postlandfall measurements that could aid in future decision-making, and hopefully, reduce the number of victims. The study is published in the latest issue of Journal of Coastal Research.
Most Americans know and use the Saffir-Simpson (SS) scale to classify hurricanes in which a number from 1 to 5 is assigned. The SS scale works to evaluate winds and storm surge over open water in the prelandfall window, but fails to accurately account for the observed impacts over land, said Jason Senkbeil and Scott Sheridan, another S-S duo who have created a new postlandfall Hurricane Classification System (HCS). This system categorizes hurricanes using six variables.. open water storm surge, rainfall, duration of hurricane force winds, maximum sustained winds, gust score, and minimum central pressure.

The HCS focuses on the observed storm intensity over land, and in turn, the human experience. This variation to the SS scale was made to reflect the changing emphasis of hurricane damage. Over the last 50 years, coastal population growth and increased property development have lead to a rise in monetary damage from hurricanes. And while the potential loss of life is always a concern, the increasing property destruction suggests a shift from fatality prevention to the protection of property.

People need to understand the severity of the storm postlandfall to know if their evacuation or preparation decisions were warranted based on the observed damage at their individual locales, said the studys authors. Senkbeil and Sheridan evaluated 41 hurricanes from 1960 to 2004 using their new scale. From these evaluations, the public can better assess evacuation decisions in the future. While the HCS isnt meant to replace the standard SS scale, it will reconcile the differences between forecasted and observed intensity.
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1041. moonlightcowboy
1:22 PM CDT on April 05, 2008
But, Ivan, isn't windfield defined more in size and not speed? Hey, I'm not disagreeing with anyone - just interesting conversation. Seems to me, too, that you could use the same case scenario for even TS, Cat 1 or 2 storms. Obviously, a major is a major. But, all of that, too (with classification) makes a difference in protocols - warnings, evacs, etc. Just seems important, and I know it was lightly debated last year, but we moved on from it quickly. An interesting and important topic I believe.
Member Since: July 9, 2006 Posts: 184 Comments: 29594
1040. Patrap
2:19 PM EDT on April 05, 2008
The System..neeeds an Overhaul..thats why Many are pushing for a Better Scale that the SSS.

Too much, an too many focus on Winds when the Impact from surge is always the greatest threat. Its the Overall Impact that counts. A slow moving S/S/S Cat-1 can pile up more surge over 2-3 days coming in, as compared to a rapidly moving Higher S/S/S cat..storm deepening and moving in like Charley.A Surge dont increase expoentially as the winds do. It takes days for a storm to Moment a huge surge.Not hours.
Lili and Isodore from 02 are good examples. The water will always take more lives than wind.
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1039. Ivansrvivr
6:19 PM GMT on April 05, 2008
Cat 3 with huge windfield moving at 6 does 100x the damage of a charley sized cat 3 moving at 16. Duration causes more damage than max sustained. Ivan showed that really well.
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1038. SouthDadeFish
6:19 PM GMT on April 05, 2008
Thats true Ivan but there is an amazing difference between a 3 and a 5. Look at Hurricane Jeanne compared to Hurricane Andrew or Hurricane Camille. The damage of a category 5 is unbelieveable.
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1037. Ivansrvivr
6:16 PM GMT on April 05, 2008
with storms so small, it is hard to tell exact strength. Charley may have been a 5. Listen once you get into the mid 3 and above they are called "majors". Give that really deep thought. A major is a major for a good reason.
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1036. moonlightcowboy
1:10 PM CDT on April 05, 2008
1030. Patrap 1:08 PM CDT on April 05, 2008
Its relative only where it cross's the coast.


Thanks, Pat. I wish we could find where that is stated officially. I'll have to do some browsing. Still, my curiosity is piqued. And, I mentioned "land-falling" in my post which concurs with your statement of being "relative."

How or why is that not really considered as a a recordable variable in land-falling systems because surely it makes a difference. Maybe, it should be considered in any new classification of storms because it surely makes a difference in surge factors, etc.

For example: Compare a Cat 3 land-falling storm with max sustained winds of 116 mph moving at 15 mph to a Cat 3 land-falling storm with max sustained winds of 116 mph moving at 6 mph. The latter remains a Cat 3 storm, but the first becomes a land-falling force of Cat 4 storm strength.

Thoughts? Thanks!
Member Since: July 9, 2006 Posts: 184 Comments: 29594
1035. Ivansrvivr
6:11 PM GMT on April 05, 2008
I don't know. Charly strengthened because "relative" shear dropped when Charley made right turn and accelerated. there were SW winds at over 20kts at upper levels. WhenCharley made right turn and accelerated to same speed RELATIVE shear dropped to less than 5 kts. Charley was small and smaller storms fluctuate quickly. had Charly stalled,upper level shear would have destroyed it. had it had 2 more hrs over water close to loop current anything is possible.
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1034. Patrap
2:12 PM EDT on April 05, 2008
Charleys right turn into Punta Gorda caught many forecasters by surprise.Its a good example of being ready when in a Warned area. Focus on where the storm is Going, not where its forecasted to go. ..always.Some refused to believe the turn and dismissed it as a wobble till it was Obvious,Punta was the Ping target of Landfall.
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1033. Weather456
2:07 PM AST on April 05, 2008
1021. Ivansrvivr 1:56 PM AST on April 05, 2008
456 strongest winds are related to pressure compared to surrounding pressures. Not just pressure alone.


Yeah i kno that. Its call the ambient pressure. I was just posting her current movement at the time of the lowest pressure.

MLC, I dont remember that storm. The NHC states that they add in the forward motion so it would be a responsibilty on thier part.
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1032. StormStalker85
6:06 PM GMT on April 05, 2008
I remember when Hurricane Charley hit Punta Gorda, it was classified as having a MSW of 145 mph. The storm was moving at about a 21 mph clip. The highest wind recorded on the ground at a local fire station was 186 mph before the equipment failed.
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1031. moonlightcowboy
1:05 PM CDT on April 05, 2008
1022. hydrus 12:56 PM CDT on April 05, 2008
If a hurricane had 17,000 MPH winds i would have to bring in the lawn chairs.


-- LOL, yep, and down below the surface of the house into the ground! Too funny!
Member Since: July 9, 2006 Posts: 184 Comments: 29594
1030. Patrap
2:05 PM EDT on April 05, 2008
The reason it is never included is because its relative.And not a factor.A Hurricane is a Moving ever-changing Tropical Entity, that ebbs and Flows.To give a Storm a imagined extra MPH isnt true to the Storms Intensity overall. Its relative only where it cross's the coast.

Heres hurricane Luis

.
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1029. hydrus
5:57 PM GMT on April 05, 2008
IVAVSRVIVR-do you think that if hurricane charley had moved at a slower speed and stayed over the water for 6 or 8 more hours would have stregthened to a catagory 5 ?
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1028. SouthDadeFish
6:03 PM GMT on April 05, 2008
But also Wilma's movement wasn't really in a straight line when she was that strong. It was more like a cycle of large wobbles. Here is a great loop showing that. Link
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1027. moonlightcowboy
12:59 PM CDT on April 05, 2008
957. Weather456 8:20 AM CDT on April 05, 2008
927. hahaguy 12:22 AM AST on April 05, 2008
isnt't true sometimes if a storm is moving pretty fast that it makes the winds feel worse or no

Yes, the speed of motion is added to the current wind speed mainly to the right of motion of a westward moving tropical cyclone.



-- Good stuff on here today, gentlemen! Interesting posts. Good ones, thanks!

Yet, I'm curious about this one (nothing against you at all 456) as I have always agreed/thought that forward motion of a storm would have to increase the wind speed of storms, especially on the right hand side of a land-falling storm. However, (despite some possible memory malaise) I believe I remember that someone last season posted some official statement that forward motion was not added.

IMO, it should be; but, does anyone else remember this? Thanks.
Member Since: July 9, 2006 Posts: 184 Comments: 29594
1026. Patrap
2:04 PM EDT on April 05, 2008
About This Video

Added: June 03, 2007
NOAA P-3 flys into the eyewall of Katrina note pronounced "stadium effect"

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1025. SouthDadeFish
6:00 PM GMT on April 05, 2008
Yeah I believe Wilma's winds were raised to 185 in post analysis. So if she was moving near 20 mph like Dean was last year, her winds could have gotten close to 200 mph. Thats just amazing.
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1023. Ivansrvivr
5:56 PM GMT on April 05, 2008
456 remember than when Wilma was that strong, her eye was less than 2 miles arcoss. Wilma was basically a large tropical tornado at that point.
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1022. hydrus
5:44 PM GMT on April 05, 2008
If a hurricane had 17,000 MPH winds i would have to bring in the lawn chairs.
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1021. Ivansrvivr
5:55 PM GMT on April 05, 2008
456 strongest winds are related to pressure compared to surrounding pressures. Not just pressure alone.
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1020. Ivansrvivr
5:49 PM GMT on April 05, 2008
Actually The MSW was 125. Storm was moving north at 20 mph. MSW is Maximum not average sustained winds. Lowest Pressure had dropped from 137 to 131 mb so a strengthening phase was beginning. During strengthening it is believed that strongest winds are pushed towards the ground and weakening does total opposite lets strongest winds lift into air.
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1019. Weather456
1:50 PM AST on April 05, 2008
She was moving a mere 8 mph. Imgagine if she was zooming like Hurricane Dean of last year.

REPEATING THE 8 AM EDT POSITION...17.2 N... 82.8 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 8 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...175
MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE... 882 MB.
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1018. Patrap
1:49 PM EDT on April 05, 2008
Im not sure who determines the max winds besides the sonde data,and surface based anenometers. All I know is if the Eyewall windfield varies in speed as per location..so as my experience being on Katrina's west side for the duration of the event,I had East to Neast winds,then a N wind then a NW , then west and ending with Sw. So Its all relative to ones position, data point, google info,etc.
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1017. SouthDadeFish
5:47 PM GMT on April 05, 2008
Ok thanks a bunch =] Thats what I always thought. So how fast was Wilma moving when it bombed to 882 millibars? From what I remember it was moving pretty slow and I guess if it was moving at like 15 mph instead its winds could have been even stronger. Thats pretty scary to think about.
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1016. Weather456
1:45 PM AST on April 05, 2008
Source
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1015. Weather456
1:44 PM AST on April 05, 2008
In other words the MSW would be 100 mph
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1014. Weather456
1:40 PM AST on April 05, 2008
1013. SouthDadeFish 1:37 PM AST on April 05, 2008
Yeah thanks Patrap thats what I thought. Yeah so 456, remember the graphic you posted where a hurricane had 90 mph winds on the east side and the north side 100 mph winds? wouldn't they classify the maximum sustained winds as 100 mph?


Note that the U.S. OAR and other forecasting center advisories already take this asymmetry into account and, in this case, would state that the highest winds were 100 mph [160 km/hr].
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1013. SouthDadeFish
5:31 PM GMT on April 05, 2008
Yeah thanks Patrap thats what I thought. Yeah so 456, remember the graphic you posted where a hurricane had 90 mph winds on the east side and the north side 100 mph winds? wouldn't they classify the maximum sustained winds as 100 mph?
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1012. Weather456
1:35 PM AST on April 05, 2008
Never mind, Problem solved

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1011. Weather456
1:29 PM AST on April 05, 2008
Never mind, Problem solved

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1010. Weather456
1:23 PM AST on April 05, 2008
1006. Ivansrvivr 1:19 PM AST on April 05, 2008
456, post the 0730 2 degree map from Ivan sept 16. it shows the momentum side of a storm perfectly.


I'm getting an error every time I click the link

550 col02deg.png: No such file or directory
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1009. hahaguy
12:24 PM EST on April 05, 2008
who would think ivan was a cat at landfall. they were so very wrong.
Member Since: August 12, 2007 Posts: 2 Comments: 2838
1008. Patrap
12:20 PM CDT on April 05, 2008
To be sure, a Hurricane cant derive any additional strengthening from the Everglades, Cyclogenesis feedback needs deeper water,by tens of meters deeper than any available there,the best it can do is maintain, but friction always takes a toll,to a landfalling storm..

Another myth is that Max winds circle the Eye in Secs,,not by any means. If a Eyewall interior circumference is 200 miles, a wind would have to be moving at an faster than Orbital speed to complete a rev in a sec.
The shuttle moving at 17,000mph only travels 300 miles in 60 seconds.
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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.