Cyclopsychic research breakthrough proves hurricanes/global warming connection

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 12:16 PM GMT on April 01, 2008

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A stunning new breakthrough in hurricane research has conclusively settled the matter: global warming is making Atlantic hurricanes and tropical storms more frequent. The new research, accepted for publication later this millennium in The Journal of Irreproducible Results, offers incontrovertible proof that global warming has increased Atlantic named storms by 57-67% over the past century. Using the pioneering new techniques of cyclopsychic storm detection and psychomortorodentiatempestology, the researchers, Professors Peter Webcaster and Judith Flurryfury of the Georgia Institute of Technophobia, and Dr. Greg Hallmonitor of the Colorado Association for Research and Modeling of the Atmosphere (CARMA), showed unequivocally that the lack of satellite measurements and aircraft reconnaissance in the early part of the hurricane record led to only a modest undercount of Atlantic tropical storms. Thus, more than half of the observed increase in named storms in the past century can be attributed to global warming.

"It's well-known that the number of Atlantic named storms has risen from 7-9 per year 100 years ago to 14-15 per year during the present active hurricane period that began in 1995," commented Professor Webcaster in an interview today. "Some MEEAT-loving hurricane researchers (Measure Everything, Everywhere, All the Time) have claimed that this rise was not real, since satellites and reconnaissance aircraft were not around to detect storms early in the hurricane record. We've made efforts in the past to quantify the number of 'missed' historical Atlantic storms using estimates of historical shipping traffic density, and computer regression models that compare recent well-observed storm activity to past storm activity. However, these studies have been pooh-poohed by the MEEAT men, who refuse to believe any science that comes out of a model. So, I began thinking about how we could actually go about observing historical Atlantic storms that were 'missed'. I began thinking the problem in a new light after watching my favorite episode of Star Trek: The Next Generation, "Timescape", where subspace entity mistakenly lays her eggs in the warp core singularity of a Romulan warship, creating a temporal anomaly that forces time to flow backwards. This inspired me to think outside the box, and it occurred to me that paranormal methods might offer a way to see back in time and make actual observations of past storms--and offer a technophobic solution to the problem, as encouraged by the charter of my university, the Georgia Institute of Technophobia."



Figure 1. Cyclopsychic observations of "missing" Atlantic tropical storms during the 20th century. All observations were performed by trained cyclopsychic Madame Cyclotropia. Note the significant drop in "missed" storms beginning in the 1940s, corresponding to the advent of aircraft reconnaissance, and in the 1970s, when satellite coverage of the Atlantic Ocean began.

Webcaster teamed with Hallmonitor and Flurryfury to experiment with a variety of paranormal techniques to make actual observations of past "missing" storms, using Ouija Boards, crystal ball gazing, the Magic Eight Ball, and channeling of restless dead spirits. Initial experiments proved discouraging, though, when the researchers attempted to perform the study themselves. "We were feeling depressed about how the research was going, having just stayed up late one Friday night in Greg's lab in Boulder trying to get the dang Magic Eight Ball to say something other than just REPLY HAZY, TRY AGAIN LATER," related Dr. Webcaster. "So, we decided to give up for the night and down a few shots of grape jello spiked with grain alcohol and delve into Greg's extensive collection of Zippy the Pinhead comic books. After a few jello shots and Zippy comics, we got feeling pretty loose, and, Yow! Decided to trek down to Pearl Street to check out the weekend psychic fair. Well, we got to staggering around the tents of the psychic fair, belting out the sorrowful lyrics of our own version of "Somewhere over the rainbow" we made up:

Somewhere, over the ocean
Back in time
Cyclones formed and decayed
Unseen by humankind

Somehow, we'll find out how many
Before we die
But it doesn't look good
'Cause the Magic Eight Ball lies!

Suddenly, we saw a mysterious shadowy figure beckoning to us from the entrance of a nearby tent, which was emblazoned with the words, Madame Cyclotropia: Psychic Readings for Troubled Atmospheric Scientists. 'I can help you find your missing storms', the seer in the shadows croaked, 'for I know much that is hidden. Come into my lair, and I will reveal the key to unlocking the mysteries of storms long past'. Greg and I looked at each other, shrugged, walked in her tent, and the rest is history."

Once in Madame Cyclotropia's tent, the researchers quickly realized that their limited scientific training could not hope to allow them to conduct rigorous paranormal research. Only a true cyclopsychic with "The Gift" could see back into the dim mists of time to divine the existence of heretofore unknown tropical cyclones. Using her cyclopsychic gift, Madame Cyclotropia correctly divined the past tracks of numerous known storms the scientists challenged her with. However, when asked to divine the existence of "missing" Atlantic storms that had not made it into the official database, she prophesied that she would only be able to do so if the scientists would write her into their latest grant proposal. This grant proposal would surely get funded, she predicted. The scientists eagerly agreed, and headed back to the lab to work on the new proposal.

Webcaster, Hallmonitor, and Flurryfury's proposal, titled, "Using a Trained Cyclopsychic to Divine Past Atlantic Tropical Cyclone Activity", was submitted to the Foundation for Atmospheric Research for Science and Education (FARSE) in early 2007 and accepted later that year. After receiving their grant money, the scientists began spending long nights in Madame Cyclotropia's tent, documenting her revelations from the four primary cyclopsychic techniques: Ouija Board, crystal ball gazing, the Magic Eight Ball, and channeling of restless dead spirits. According to Dr. Hallmonitor, "We were thrilled when the first three techniques we tried all yielded virtually identical results, showing the robustness of our experimental methodology. The three techniques all showed a noticeable drop in the number of "missed" storms in the 1940s, when aircraft reconnaissance became available, and in the 1970s, when satellites coverage began over the Atlantic Ocean. However, when we tried to channel restless dead spirits, we ran into a roadblock. We couldn't find any restless dead spirits with an interest or knowledge of historical Atlantic hurricanes. We happily attributed this to the propensity of dead meteorologists to wind up inside Heaven's Pearly Gates, but were sad that our research would lack this crucial final proof of its validity. We were about to give up when Peter then hit upon the idea of contacting the spirits of groundhogs, who are known for their weather prognosticating ability. Some of these prognosticating rodents might have unfinished business that would keep their restless souls adrift in the ether, available for consultation on weather-related matters. We coined word psychomortorodentiatempestology to describe this exciting new branch of hurricane science, and set off in search of gifted groundhogs spirits with this special skill."



Figure 2. Wee Willy One and Chucky before their departure into the hereafter. Which rodent's spirit would you trust to get accurate weather information from?

Indeed, Madame Cyclotropia was able to contact the spirit of "Wee Willy One", a famed albino groundhog that had once burrowed under the fair gardens of Wiarton, Ontario, and provided weather forecasts each Groundhog's Day up until his death in 2006. Wee Willy One proved to be testy and uncooperative, though, deliberately delivering incorrect storm information. The researchers sought out help from cyclotherapy experts from the Center for Disease Control's Weather Related Illness Division to determine if cyclotherapy might help Wee Willy One overcome his bad attitude. Cyclotherapist Dr. Sandy Chirpchuckle diagnosed Wee Willy One as a cyclopath suffering from rare form of cyclopsychosis. Ordinarily, cyclopsychosis manifests itself only in hurricane scientists and weather enthusiasts during the long, dull months prior to hurricane season. The despondent victims of cyclopsychosis spend long hours in front of flickering computer monitors in dark, gloomy rooms, obsessively poring over maps and statistics of hurricanes long gone by. The victims tend to become highly antisocial but never violent, and can be successfully treated with cycloactive drugs. However, Dr. Chirpchuckle diagnosed Wee Willy One with an extremely rare case of "shadow" cyclopsychosis, brought on by the cyclological trauma being rudely hauled out of his burrow each February 2 so that a bunch of cockamaimie humans could see whether he saw his shadow or not. "Shadow" cyclopsychosis is incurable, both in this world and the hereafter, so Madame Cyclotropia was forced to seek out other groundhog spirits. After months of effort, she finally found the spirit of "Chucky", a friendly groundhog that had once burrowed under the gardens of Nashville, Tennessee. Chucky eagerly provided accurate information on the "missing" Atlantic tropical storms that was precisely in agreement with the data collected from the other cyclopsychic techniques. "We were ecstatic," exclaimed Dr. Hallmonitor. "More jello shots!"

Hurricane experts world-wide are hailing the new findings. "These exciting results conclusively prove that even us blind squirrels can find some nuts," enthused renown hurricane expert, Dr. Kerry Readthemanual of the Massachusetts Institute of Technophobia. Dr. Readthemanual has been a leading proponent of the global warming/Atlantic hurricane link. Even former critics are praising the new findings. Dr. William Graymatter, Professor Über-Emeritus of Colorado State University's Center for Hurricane Observation, Measurement, and Prediction (CHOMP), said in an interview: "I've been in the hurricane business for 113 years, and I know good research when I see it. The findings of Webcaster, Hallmonitor, and Flurryfury are based on solid observational evidence and white magic. There's no black magic involved, such as the use of a computer model, so their results are impregnable."

Dr. Chris Blandsee, Chief Scientist of the Natural Hurricane Center's division of Global Warming Isn't Responsible for the Recent Upswing in Atlantic Hurricane Activity, and Even If It Was, We Wouldn't be Able to Tell, Since the Quality of the Atlantic Hurricane Database is Too Poor to Use for Such Purposes (NHC/GWIRRUAHAEIIWWWATSQAHDTPUSP), has also been critical of past research showing a link between hurricanes and global warming, maintaining that global warming isn't responsible for the recent upswing in Atlantic hurricane activity, and even if it was, we wouldn't be able to tell, since the quality of the Atlantic hurricane database is too poor to use for such purposes. It was his Congressional testimony, along with that of former NHC director Max Minefield, which inspired President Bushwhacker's administration to rename the National Hurricane Center the "Natural Hurricane Center" last year. (This action was also urged by the Government Anagram Accountability Office (GAAO), which found that the letters in "National Hurricane Center" could be rearranged to spell the ominous phrase, "Errant Herculean Inaction"--and also the disturbing, "Teenier Charlatan Unicorn", and the clearly unacceptable, "Inhale Cocaine, Errant Runt!", while the letters in "Natural Hurricane Center" could be rearranged to form phrases much more in harmony with the NHC mission, such as "Natural, Neater, Crunchier.")

Dr. Blandsee grudgingly gave ground in his comments today. "It looks like Webcaster, Hallmonitor, and Flurryfury (and don't try to say her name three times fast) have done some pretty rigorous scientific work," he conceded. "But they've written what is probably the longest and most excruciatingly dull hurricane science paper of all time. All those old storms and their analyzed tracks that they talk about, on and on and on, year by year by year. Ugh! A lot of good trees died to publish that paper. It was even duller than some of my clunkers!"

What's next for the pioneering researchers? "Well, CARMA and the Georgia Institute of Technophobia are collaborating on a grant proposal with Dr. Graymatter and Phil Flossblack of CHOMP to apply cyclopsychic methods in a new way--improvement of seasonal hurricane forecasts," said Dr. Flurryfury. "We've submitted a proposal to FARSE titled, 'Gray Magic: Using Cyclopsychic Methods to Improve Seasonal Hurricane Forecasts'. Lord knows, the forecast busts of the past two hurricane seasons have shown that Flossblack and Dr. Graymatter could use some supernatural help with their predictions."

April Fools!
Meff Jasters

References
Hallmonitor, G.J., and P.J. Webcaster, 2007, "Heightened tropical cyclone activity in the North Atlantic: natural variability or climate trend?" Philosophical Transactions of The Royal Society A 365, Number 1860, 15 November 2007, Pages: 26952716 DOI: 10.1098/rsta.2007.2083

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308. weathermanwannabe
1:03 PM CST on April 02, 2008
Just went out to lunch in Bonifay, FL (Central FL Panhandle)after being in the AC all day and the temps are 83F and very muggy....Feels like June and I left my car windows cracked for when I leave the office later........
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305. mgreen91
6:38 PM GMT on April 02, 2008
Hurricanes pose the greatest 'act of nature' risk to the U.S. insurance industry for 2008, according to EMB, an actuarial consulting firm. With the hurricane season on the horizon, insurers must prepare for this heightened risk, EMB urges.

"We've seen the devastating effects of hurricanes – homes and other property completely destroyed. Insurance companies are still struggling to recover from Katrina," said Alice Gannon, senior consultant of EMB America. "The past two years have been quieter for insurers, but meteorological research indicates that we still experienced an uptick in North Atlantic hurricane activity. This is a trend that is likely to continue for several years, so insurers must prepare themselves to withstand losses in the event of another catastrophic landfall."

The threat of hurricanes has been at the top of the U.S. property and casualty insurance risk list since Hurricane Andrew devastated southern Florida in 1992, causing an estimated $26.5 billion in damages. Despite a drop in land-falling hurricanes in 2006 and 2007, both years experienced higher-than-average hurricane activity in the North Atlantic.

With the events surrounding Hurricane Katrina in 2005 and multiple land-falling hurricanes in 2004, U.S. insurers have experienced the implications of the increased frequency and severity of hurricanes nationwide. However, EMB cautions insurers not to be lulled into a false sense of security based on the relative calm of the past two years.

While hurricanes top the list of P&C insurance risk, other 'acts of nature,' including tornadoes, earthquakes, winter storms, fire and hail must also be accounted for when insurers assess their pricing strategies. The recent Atlanta tornado, which caused an estimated $250 million in damage and the 2007 California wildfires, which cost insurers over $1.5 billion, have made this clear.

"Accounting for the unaccountable, as we do with these 'acts of nature,' is the largest obstacle facing insurers," added Tom Hettinger, managing director of EMB America. "Companies should not be resting on their laurels when developing risk management strategies and determining prices. Instead, insurers need to factor in issues surrounding climate change and must look to incorporate long-term weather trends into their pricing."

Source: EMB America

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304. hahaguy
1:21 PM EST on April 02, 2008
once again patrap thanks alot for that link. i really like that one
Member Since: August 12, 2007 Posts: 2 Comments: 2838
303. Patrap
12:58 PM CDT on April 02, 2008
NPR: Hurricane Season 2006
Animation illustrating the Saffir-Simpson scale and the type of damage caused by each category of hurricanes. Link
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302. weatherbro
5:49 PM GMT on April 02, 2008
Brownsville, Texas

Conditions: Partly cloudy
Air Temperature: 78F
Dew Point Temperature: 74F
Relative humidity: 89%
Winds: SSE at 10 mph
Barometer: 30.03 inches

Can't imagine living there.
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301. hahaguy
12:51 PM EST on April 02, 2008
ya patrap i know all to well about the eyewall unfortunately
Member Since: August 12, 2007 Posts: 2 Comments: 2838
300. Patrap
12:48 PM CDT on April 02, 2008
Thats the Power of the Cane's Eyewall..Always Awesome in its Display.
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299. weatherbro
5:38 PM GMT on April 02, 2008
Brownsville, Texas dewpoints in the mid 70's ugg!
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298. hahaguy
12:45 PM EST on April 02, 2008
wow thats horrifying
Member Since: August 12, 2007 Posts: 2 Comments: 2838
297. Patrap
12:43 PM CDT on April 02, 2008
Video,Hurricane Iniki,Hawaii September 11, 1992 Link

Web page On Iniki Link
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296. hahaguy
12:39 PM EST on April 02, 2008
but i've learned things can change very quickly
Member Since: August 12, 2007 Posts: 2 Comments: 2838
295. Altestic
5:35 PM GMT on April 02, 2008
True that the african shore is warm... but most of the rest of the TATL, the Carolina/florida coast on both sides, most of the GOM, and the Caribbean are all either below or right at average.
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293. TampaSpin
1:00 PM EDT on April 02, 2008
292. Altestic 12:44 PM EDT on April 02, 2008
Looking at all the cool anomalies...It's definately going to be a tranquil hurricane season.

Did you not see what is off the Africa coast and in the middle of the GOM...not a wise statement IMO....

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292. Altestic
4:43 PM GMT on April 02, 2008
Looking at all the cool anomalies...It's definately going to be a tranquil hurricane season.

Woot, I had my 16th birthday on March 28 just to let you know :)
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290. vortfix
4:39 PM GMT on April 02, 2008
The SPC has included part of Florida in a slight risk area for the afternoon:


DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1115 AM CDT WED APR 02 2008

VALID 021630Z - 031200Z

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF FL/GA...

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER PORTIONS OF OK/AR/KS...
289. hahaguy
11:38 AM EST on April 02, 2008
same here with south florida
Member Since: August 12, 2007 Posts: 2 Comments: 2838
287. hahaguy
11:30 AM EST on April 02, 2008
i've been running the a/c for the past few months
Member Since: August 12, 2007 Posts: 2 Comments: 2838
285. RJinBoyntonBeachFL
4:26 PM GMT on April 02, 2008
I'm just seeing the April Fools entry. Very funny!
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284. Patrap
11:25 AM CDT on April 02, 2008
Humidity here between the Showers feels Like May..
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283. hahaguy
11:21 AM EST on April 02, 2008
im also running my a/c

port st lucie,fl
81
79%humidity
73 dew point
30.20 pressure and steady

patrap i love groucho marx lol
Member Since: August 12, 2007 Posts: 2 Comments: 2838
282. Patrap
11:20 AM CDT on April 02, 2008
Er,Jedkins.., Easy now,...its a April FOOls day Blog son ..LMAO!!!!

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280. Jedkins
4:13 PM GMT on April 02, 2008
I can't even imagine if my friends found out this is what meteorologist are turning to to improve forecasting.


If they did find out, I'd be so ashamed and embarrassed, I would litterally QUIT and learn a different field to be my major in college.
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279. Jedkins
3:56 PM GMT on April 02, 2008
I just thought I'd like you know, that you can forecast BETTER then ANYTHING just by all the friggen crap you learn in meteorology school, I'm just graduating highschool, and I could probably prove that many times I'm more accurate then any oth the forecasts which are all computer run.


And why might that be? Thats because the human MIND is the best forecasting tool that has ever exsisted.


But no, instead meteorologists go to MAGIC MEN hoping for a better forecast?

ARE YOU SERIOUS?


Oh and ANIMALS DON'T HAVE SPIRITS! Not to mention going to a medium to stir up dead spirits for forecasting, even dead ANIMALS is the DUMBEST thing Ive ever heard.


How could smart people, turn to such STUPID and POINTLESS solutions, when the BEST tool the could use for forecasting is their own mind!


All of that psychic crap is bull**** and is childish and ignorant to to turn to such things.


Lets get our sanity back PLEASE!
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278. Miamiweather
3:41 PM GMT on April 02, 2008
I have a question is la nina going to be around during the 08 hurricane season
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277. KEEPEROFTHEGATE (Mod)
3:25 PM GMT on April 02, 2008
be back in a bit got to go do some work lunch is at 1 pm till 130
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276. KEEPEROFTHEGATE (Mod)
3:21 PM GMT on April 02, 2008
i unpack and set up my ac on 24 of may till first day of fall in my area
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275. Patrap
10:20 AM CDT on April 02, 2008
A/C running here this morning..

74.8 °F / 23.8 °C
Mostly Cloudy
Humidity: 79%
Dew Point: 68 °F / 20 °C
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274. KEEPEROFTHEGATE (Mod)
3:12 PM GMT on April 02, 2008
cool this morn but on the rebound temp back in 50's tomorrow with 60's for weekend only rain is fri bringing in warmer air then more rain early next week as all that moisture comes up from the south
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273. Patrap
10:13 AM CDT on April 02, 2008
I dont bother.One should send the complaints to the Local NWS office if they feel the need,they all have E-mail.

GOES-12 GOM IR Loop Link
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271. Patrap
10:11 AM CDT on April 02, 2008
Hello KOTG,..hows the weather in your neck of the woods?
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270. KEEPEROFTHEGATE (Mod)
3:10 PM GMT on April 02, 2008
good day pat
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269. Patrap
10:07 AM CDT on April 02, 2008
Thanks dude...you have a good day.
(But you were the criticizer of Forecasters..LOL)

Hypocrite.

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268. weathermanwannabe
8:49 AM CST on April 02, 2008
Good Morning Folks.....Beautiful morning in the SE US and nice and quiet......I concur with the frequent rain, pop-up shower, developments in Florida (very Summerlike) and my only tropical season related comment for today, as some mentioned yesterday, is that the ITCZ appears to be doing "very well" right now......Conditions can certainly change in a few months, but if they remain about the same once the H-Season moves into July-August, we could see a lot of real healthy CV waves coming off the coast this year..........
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267. atmoaggie
2:33 PM GMT on April 02, 2008
Here is a hurricane not yet included in any of the official historical records. There were no ship measurements, no barometers, no anemometers present, only extra rain for Texas and New Mexico. Is it from the 1700s? Early 1800s? Try 1954. See details here.
Only recently has Chris Landsea added this one to his reanalysis project. From what I understand, this storm is not part of Emmanuel's, Holland's, nor Webster's attempts to use comparisons of storms detected by our current technology to those of the past for easy grant money.

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266. weatherboyfsu
2:45 PM GMT on April 02, 2008
And you have a great day hanging around here ALL DAY critiquing peoples remarks!!!!!!!
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265. Patrap
9:44 AM CDT on April 02, 2008
You go man..LOL

Well...the weather sometimes outsmarts even the pros.

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264. weatherboyfsu
2:40 PM GMT on April 02, 2008
Tell me something that I dont already know Mr. Patrap! Weather gives you clues each and every day. Its called interpretation of the clues which these guys did not do well yesterday or the day before.
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263. stormdude77
10:37 AM AST on April 02, 2008
Morning, everyone!

I made a blog concerning La Nina, it continues to weaken (The information is not written by me), see here.
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262. Patrap
9:28 AM CDT on April 02, 2008
Because its weather..and the weather dont read the script...It dont have ears either.

Be thankful for the rain,for it is needed.
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261. weatherboyfsu
2:22 PM GMT on April 02, 2008
Good morning,

Luckily for the forecasters of central florida, they can use the excuse of April fools for their forecasting of yesterday. Mondays forecast for Tuesday was only a 20% chance of showers.......

We actual got over an inch area wide. Some places got over 2.5 inches. Lots of lightning and some strong winds. Great job NWS!!!!!

Now, todays forecast has 40% chance.....We will probably only see a sprinkle.......

I would like to know how they could be so far off on predicting strong thunderstorms that produce widespread rainfall! With all the technology and expertise, you would think that they could of seen some clues. Very disappointing!
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260. Patrap
9:18 AM CDT on April 02, 2008
Scientist: CDC bosses ignored warning Associated Press - April 1, 2008 2:03 PM ET

WASHINGTON (AP) - A federal scientist says his bosses ignored pleas to alert Gulf Coast hurricane victims about formaldehyde dangers in government-issued trailers and urged him not to go public with warnings.

Christopher De Rosa of the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention tells a House subcommittee his bosses told him such warnings could be misinterpreted if publicly released.
Link
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259. TheCaneWhisperer
2:06 PM GMT on April 02, 2008
I was thinking the exact same thing as I was driving home yesterday Ivan. Just looked like an average SE Florida afternoon in the cloud/rain department. Now even more, seeing the morning showers along the coast. Maybe just a temporary thing but it sure reminded me of summer.
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258. Patrap
9:03 AM CDT on April 02, 2008
FEMA allows report deadline to pass
Post-disaster housing strategy unfinished

Wednesday, April 02, 2008
By Bill Walsh

WASHINGTON -- FEMA on Tuesday missed a second deadline for producing its plan, in the works since the 2005 hurricanes, for housing displaced victims of the next major American disaster.

The congressionally mandated report was supposed to be finished last June. Criticized for the delay, a top FEMA official promised at a hearing last month that it would be ready by April 1. It is now unclear when it will be done.

The overdue housing report is the latest in a string of busted deadlines that had been imposed by Congress in landmark disaster legislation passed in 2006. The law was designed to remake the nation's disaster response and prevent a repeat of the mistakes exposed by Hurricane Katrina.
Link
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About JeffMasters

Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.