Cyclopsychic research breakthrough proves hurricanes/global warming connection

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 12:16 PM GMT on April 01, 2008

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A stunning new breakthrough in hurricane research has conclusively settled the matter: global warming is making Atlantic hurricanes and tropical storms more frequent. The new research, accepted for publication later this millennium in The Journal of Irreproducible Results, offers incontrovertible proof that global warming has increased Atlantic named storms by 57-67% over the past century. Using the pioneering new techniques of cyclopsychic storm detection and psychomortorodentiatempestology, the researchers, Professors Peter Webcaster and Judith Flurryfury of the Georgia Institute of Technophobia, and Dr. Greg Hallmonitor of the Colorado Association for Research and Modeling of the Atmosphere (CARMA), showed unequivocally that the lack of satellite measurements and aircraft reconnaissance in the early part of the hurricane record led to only a modest undercount of Atlantic tropical storms. Thus, more than half of the observed increase in named storms in the past century can be attributed to global warming.

"It's well-known that the number of Atlantic named storms has risen from 7-9 per year 100 years ago to 14-15 per year during the present active hurricane period that began in 1995," commented Professor Webcaster in an interview today. "Some MEEAT-loving hurricane researchers (Measure Everything, Everywhere, All the Time) have claimed that this rise was not real, since satellites and reconnaissance aircraft were not around to detect storms early in the hurricane record. We've made efforts in the past to quantify the number of 'missed' historical Atlantic storms using estimates of historical shipping traffic density, and computer regression models that compare recent well-observed storm activity to past storm activity. However, these studies have been pooh-poohed by the MEEAT men, who refuse to believe any science that comes out of a model. So, I began thinking about how we could actually go about observing historical Atlantic storms that were 'missed'. I began thinking the problem in a new light after watching my favorite episode of Star Trek: The Next Generation, "Timescape", where subspace entity mistakenly lays her eggs in the warp core singularity of a Romulan warship, creating a temporal anomaly that forces time to flow backwards. This inspired me to think outside the box, and it occurred to me that paranormal methods might offer a way to see back in time and make actual observations of past storms--and offer a technophobic solution to the problem, as encouraged by the charter of my university, the Georgia Institute of Technophobia."



Figure 1. Cyclopsychic observations of "missing" Atlantic tropical storms during the 20th century. All observations were performed by trained cyclopsychic Madame Cyclotropia. Note the significant drop in "missed" storms beginning in the 1940s, corresponding to the advent of aircraft reconnaissance, and in the 1970s, when satellite coverage of the Atlantic Ocean began.

Webcaster teamed with Hallmonitor and Flurryfury to experiment with a variety of paranormal techniques to make actual observations of past "missing" storms, using Ouija Boards, crystal ball gazing, the Magic Eight Ball, and channeling of restless dead spirits. Initial experiments proved discouraging, though, when the researchers attempted to perform the study themselves. "We were feeling depressed about how the research was going, having just stayed up late one Friday night in Greg's lab in Boulder trying to get the dang Magic Eight Ball to say something other than just REPLY HAZY, TRY AGAIN LATER," related Dr. Webcaster. "So, we decided to give up for the night and down a few shots of grape jello spiked with grain alcohol and delve into Greg's extensive collection of Zippy the Pinhead comic books. After a few jello shots and Zippy comics, we got feeling pretty loose, and, Yow! Decided to trek down to Pearl Street to check out the weekend psychic fair. Well, we got to staggering around the tents of the psychic fair, belting out the sorrowful lyrics of our own version of "Somewhere over the rainbow" we made up:

Somewhere, over the ocean
Back in time
Cyclones formed and decayed
Unseen by humankind

Somehow, we'll find out how many
Before we die
But it doesn't look good
'Cause the Magic Eight Ball lies!

Suddenly, we saw a mysterious shadowy figure beckoning to us from the entrance of a nearby tent, which was emblazoned with the words, Madame Cyclotropia: Psychic Readings for Troubled Atmospheric Scientists. 'I can help you find your missing storms', the seer in the shadows croaked, 'for I know much that is hidden. Come into my lair, and I will reveal the key to unlocking the mysteries of storms long past'. Greg and I looked at each other, shrugged, walked in her tent, and the rest is history."

Once in Madame Cyclotropia's tent, the researchers quickly realized that their limited scientific training could not hope to allow them to conduct rigorous paranormal research. Only a true cyclopsychic with "The Gift" could see back into the dim mists of time to divine the existence of heretofore unknown tropical cyclones. Using her cyclopsychic gift, Madame Cyclotropia correctly divined the past tracks of numerous known storms the scientists challenged her with. However, when asked to divine the existence of "missing" Atlantic storms that had not made it into the official database, she prophesied that she would only be able to do so if the scientists would write her into their latest grant proposal. This grant proposal would surely get funded, she predicted. The scientists eagerly agreed, and headed back to the lab to work on the new proposal.

Webcaster, Hallmonitor, and Flurryfury's proposal, titled, "Using a Trained Cyclopsychic to Divine Past Atlantic Tropical Cyclone Activity", was submitted to the Foundation for Atmospheric Research for Science and Education (FARSE) in early 2007 and accepted later that year. After receiving their grant money, the scientists began spending long nights in Madame Cyclotropia's tent, documenting her revelations from the four primary cyclopsychic techniques: Ouija Board, crystal ball gazing, the Magic Eight Ball, and channeling of restless dead spirits. According to Dr. Hallmonitor, "We were thrilled when the first three techniques we tried all yielded virtually identical results, showing the robustness of our experimental methodology. The three techniques all showed a noticeable drop in the number of "missed" storms in the 1940s, when aircraft reconnaissance became available, and in the 1970s, when satellites coverage began over the Atlantic Ocean. However, when we tried to channel restless dead spirits, we ran into a roadblock. We couldn't find any restless dead spirits with an interest or knowledge of historical Atlantic hurricanes. We happily attributed this to the propensity of dead meteorologists to wind up inside Heaven's Pearly Gates, but were sad that our research would lack this crucial final proof of its validity. We were about to give up when Peter then hit upon the idea of contacting the spirits of groundhogs, who are known for their weather prognosticating ability. Some of these prognosticating rodents might have unfinished business that would keep their restless souls adrift in the ether, available for consultation on weather-related matters. We coined word psychomortorodentiatempestology to describe this exciting new branch of hurricane science, and set off in search of gifted groundhogs spirits with this special skill."



Figure 2. Wee Willy One and Chucky before their departure into the hereafter. Which rodent's spirit would you trust to get accurate weather information from?

Indeed, Madame Cyclotropia was able to contact the spirit of "Wee Willy One", a famed albino groundhog that had once burrowed under the fair gardens of Wiarton, Ontario, and provided weather forecasts each Groundhog's Day up until his death in 2006. Wee Willy One proved to be testy and uncooperative, though, deliberately delivering incorrect storm information. The researchers sought out help from cyclotherapy experts from the Center for Disease Control's Weather Related Illness Division to determine if cyclotherapy might help Wee Willy One overcome his bad attitude. Cyclotherapist Dr. Sandy Chirpchuckle diagnosed Wee Willy One as a cyclopath suffering from rare form of cyclopsychosis. Ordinarily, cyclopsychosis manifests itself only in hurricane scientists and weather enthusiasts during the long, dull months prior to hurricane season. The despondent victims of cyclopsychosis spend long hours in front of flickering computer monitors in dark, gloomy rooms, obsessively poring over maps and statistics of hurricanes long gone by. The victims tend to become highly antisocial but never violent, and can be successfully treated with cycloactive drugs. However, Dr. Chirpchuckle diagnosed Wee Willy One with an extremely rare case of "shadow" cyclopsychosis, brought on by the cyclological trauma being rudely hauled out of his burrow each February 2 so that a bunch of cockamaimie humans could see whether he saw his shadow or not. "Shadow" cyclopsychosis is incurable, both in this world and the hereafter, so Madame Cyclotropia was forced to seek out other groundhog spirits. After months of effort, she finally found the spirit of "Chucky", a friendly groundhog that had once burrowed under the gardens of Nashville, Tennessee. Chucky eagerly provided accurate information on the "missing" Atlantic tropical storms that was precisely in agreement with the data collected from the other cyclopsychic techniques. "We were ecstatic," exclaimed Dr. Hallmonitor. "More jello shots!"

Hurricane experts world-wide are hailing the new findings. "These exciting results conclusively prove that even us blind squirrels can find some nuts," enthused renown hurricane expert, Dr. Kerry Readthemanual of the Massachusetts Institute of Technophobia. Dr. Readthemanual has been a leading proponent of the global warming/Atlantic hurricane link. Even former critics are praising the new findings. Dr. William Graymatter, Professor Über-Emeritus of Colorado State University's Center for Hurricane Observation, Measurement, and Prediction (CHOMP), said in an interview: "I've been in the hurricane business for 113 years, and I know good research when I see it. The findings of Webcaster, Hallmonitor, and Flurryfury are based on solid observational evidence and white magic. There's no black magic involved, such as the use of a computer model, so their results are impregnable."

Dr. Chris Blandsee, Chief Scientist of the Natural Hurricane Center's division of Global Warming Isn't Responsible for the Recent Upswing in Atlantic Hurricane Activity, and Even If It Was, We Wouldn't be Able to Tell, Since the Quality of the Atlantic Hurricane Database is Too Poor to Use for Such Purposes (NHC/GWIRRUAHAEIIWWWATSQAHDTPUSP), has also been critical of past research showing a link between hurricanes and global warming, maintaining that global warming isn't responsible for the recent upswing in Atlantic hurricane activity, and even if it was, we wouldn't be able to tell, since the quality of the Atlantic hurricane database is too poor to use for such purposes. It was his Congressional testimony, along with that of former NHC director Max Minefield, which inspired President Bushwhacker's administration to rename the National Hurricane Center the "Natural Hurricane Center" last year. (This action was also urged by the Government Anagram Accountability Office (GAAO), which found that the letters in "National Hurricane Center" could be rearranged to spell the ominous phrase, "Errant Herculean Inaction"--and also the disturbing, "Teenier Charlatan Unicorn", and the clearly unacceptable, "Inhale Cocaine, Errant Runt!", while the letters in "Natural Hurricane Center" could be rearranged to form phrases much more in harmony with the NHC mission, such as "Natural, Neater, Crunchier.")

Dr. Blandsee grudgingly gave ground in his comments today. "It looks like Webcaster, Hallmonitor, and Flurryfury (and don't try to say her name three times fast) have done some pretty rigorous scientific work," he conceded. "But they've written what is probably the longest and most excruciatingly dull hurricane science paper of all time. All those old storms and their analyzed tracks that they talk about, on and on and on, year by year by year. Ugh! A lot of good trees died to publish that paper. It was even duller than some of my clunkers!"

What's next for the pioneering researchers? "Well, CARMA and the Georgia Institute of Technophobia are collaborating on a grant proposal with Dr. Graymatter and Phil Flossblack of CHOMP to apply cyclopsychic methods in a new way--improvement of seasonal hurricane forecasts," said Dr. Flurryfury. "We've submitted a proposal to FARSE titled, 'Gray Magic: Using Cyclopsychic Methods to Improve Seasonal Hurricane Forecasts'. Lord knows, the forecast busts of the past two hurricane seasons have shown that Flossblack and Dr. Graymatter could use some supernatural help with their predictions."

April Fools!
Meff Jasters

References
Hallmonitor, G.J., and P.J. Webcaster, 2007, "Heightened tropical cyclone activity in the North Atlantic: natural variability or climate trend?" Philosophical Transactions of The Royal Society A 365, Number 1860, 15 November 2007, Pages: 26952716 DOI: 10.1098/rsta.2007.2083

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358. Patrap
8:36 PM CDT on April 02, 2008
N.O. may set June 1 trailer deadline
Blakely: 'We do not want to be trailer city'
Thursday, March 27, 2008
By Michelle Krupa


Story:Link

An estimated 7,200 trailers remain in New Orleans, with 202 of them assembled at playgrounds and other public sites, and the rest installed on private properties, Blakely said. Most people still living in trailers are older than 50 and are caught in financial limbo: even with Road Home and insurance payments, they can't afford to rebuild their homes, he said.



My Area where we lived in the FEMA trailer from Dec 05-FEb 08,Just Next to Orleans and Jefferson
Kenner pushes to remove trailers
City, FEMA to find alternatives by June 1
Saturday, March 15, 2008
By Mary Sparacello
Link
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 414 Comments: 125606
357. Patrap
8:26 PM CDT on April 02, 2008
The pressure is on in Many Parishes and Counties to have the trailers gone. Under penalty of Fine.

Parish Home Page Link
Jefferson Parish, Louisiana

Issued by: Patricia Borne

Public Information Office

"Provide the services,leadership, and vision to improve the quality of life in Jefferson Parish."

Aaron F. Broussard

Parish President

March 1, 2008


FEMA TRAILERS IN JEFFERSON PARISH

March 1, 2008 FEMA TRAILERS IN JEFFERSON PARISH A property owner who has a FEMA trailer and who has contacted FEMA (1-888-294-2822) and asked for the trailer to be removed but is still waiting for FEMA to remove the trailer may avoid a lawsuit by submitting a signed, notarized affidavit to the Parish Attorney. You can obtain the affidavit form and have it notarized at the Parish Attorney's Office located in Suite 701 in the Yenni Building at 1221 Elmwood Park Boulevard or Suite 5200 in the General Government Building at 200 Derbigny Street.
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 414 Comments: 125606
356. Tazmanian
6:19 PM PDT on April 02, 2008
Nearly 40,000 Katrina families still in mobile homes By Jim Loney
Wed Apr 2, 12:31 PM ET



ORLANDO, Florida (Reuters) - Almost three years after Hurricane Katrina, nearly 40,000 families still are living in vulnerable mobile homes and trailers across the U.S. Gulf Coast with another hurricane season just two months away, the top U.S. disaster official said on Wednesday.



The number is down from about 100,000 families, or some 300,000 people, in April 2006. At one point following the devastating 2005 hurricane season, the U.S. Federal Emergency Management Agency was housing 143,000 families in mobile homes and trailers.

FEMA Administrator David Paulison said the agency, which was heavily criticized for its hapless response when Katrina swamped New Orleans, is moving about 800 families a week into hotels, motels or apartments.

The families are either living at group sites or in trailers in the driveways of their homes as they rebuild.

The six-month Atlantic hurricane season begins on June 1. Forecasters are expecting above-average storm activity.

"As far as rebuilding, I did expect it to take this long," Paulison told a small group of reporters at the National Hurricane Conference in Orlando. "But as far as housing people, I did not foresee that they would be there almost three years later."

Katrina killed 1,500 people and caused $80 billion in damage when it swept ashore in late August 2005 near New Orleans, shattering the levees protecting the low-lying city and swamping entire neighborhoods.

The three worst storms of 2005 -- Katrina, Rita and Wilma -- together caused about $110 billion in damages. The record-shattering season produced 28 tropical storms.

The presence of so many people in the flimsy temporary housing complicates preparations for the hurricane season because those families must be evacuated in the event of a threatening storm.

Paulison said the agency was on target to move everyone from the group sites by June 1 but was having "a lot of trouble" getting some of those displaced by Katrina to move again, even from cramped mobile homes that are often reduced to rubble in big storms.

"People simply don't want to move," he said. "It hasn't been as easy a task to get people out as we thought it might be


from here

Link
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355. FLWeatherFreak91
8:55 PM EDT on April 02, 2008
Wow, I'm getting some crazy storms right here north of Tampa.... I swear it's really summer...
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354. Weather456
7:57 PM AST on April 02, 2008
Surface convergence zone and genereal flow over West Africa



Surface convergence zone and general flow over the Eastern Atlantic

Member Since: July 24, 2005 Posts: 407 Comments: 19076
352. Weather456
7:53 PM AST on April 02, 2008
That zone of showers and thunderstorms along the Sub Saharan/Guinea Coast is associated with several pertubations within the AEJ. Especially near 10E-20E south of 10N.

Member Since: July 24, 2005 Posts: 407 Comments: 19076
351. MNTornado
11:46 PM GMT on April 02, 2008
Dr. Jeffrey Masters,

That is as bad as the people in Ely, Minnesota near the Arrowhead Region of Minnesota. They were advertising all day on April 1, that the Governor of Minnesota had contracted to sell the North Eastern Section of Minnesota to Canada to make up for our budget shortfall.

Personally I think you all have had way too much ....
LMAO
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350. ShenValleyFlyFish
10:42 PM GMT on April 02, 2008
.We all most prepare for the worst and hope for the best as you should do every hurricane season.

Seems like a good all-round policy for life in general. ;~)
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349. AWeatherLover
11:29 PM GMT on April 02, 2008
Much thanks Michael!
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348. AWeatherLover
11:26 PM GMT on April 02, 2008
Regarding my post 346- Just to clarify I'm asking about where you say "a cool ENSO bias (but not an actual La Nina). I must not have copied the whole quote.
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346. AWeatherLover
11:06 PM GMT on April 02, 2008
344. MichaelSTL 11:01 PM GMT on April 02, 2008
As far as I can see, ENSO was in neutral conditions during the hurricane season


Here is a more detailed look at that season, from NOAA. Link

Interestingly, NOAA says that La Nina-like conditions occurred over the Pacific (which in fact lead to La Nina conditions by the winter); I have read that the most active seasons are those that have a cool ENSO bias

Regarding that last sentence Michael, where did you read that. Because according to what I have read and been taught in my meteorology classes La Nina contributes to cyclogenesis whereas El Nino does not. However, I have just never seen any statistics regarding strong La Nina versus weak La Nina. So where did you read about this? Thanks again.
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345. Drakoen
11:07 PM GMT on April 02, 2008
I have to agree with Koritheman. La Nina is still strong and the equatorial pacific temperatures are much lower than 2006. Also to note that the extent of the cooler temperatures along the eastern seaboard and down into the Caribbean. I think that if El Nino were to develop it would be in the late season.

The CFS continues to show below average conditions in the Equatorial Pacific. And above average temps over the eastern Atlantic with average temps in the Caribbean:


Here is 2006 and 2008 juxtaposed together. You can see obvious differences with the extent of the Conditions.

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343. AWeatherLover
10:51 PM GMT on April 02, 2008
Kris, thanks. Great link.
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342. weathermanwannabe
4:40 PM CST on April 02, 2008
I was not on the Blog in 2005 (so correct me regulars who were and who tracked 2005) but I would guess a conglomeration of many of the factors tilted towards very favorable conditions for an extended period of time (low shear/warm ssts/weaker fronts (i.e. late winter)/lower dust levels, ect.).....
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341. weatherboykris
10:44 PM GMT on April 02, 2008
Can anyone help me to better understand what would cause such records during the 2005 season?


  1. Extremely warm SST. All of the Atlantic was well above average

  2. Extremely well below average wind shear, which allowed near continuous development from June through January

  3. Steering currents were favorable for storms to move west towards land, instead of curving out to sea. Also, not many storms formed way out in the ocean anyway, so even if steering currents had favored tracks out to sea, most storms would still have hit land anyway



Here is a more detailed look at that season, from NOAA. Link
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340. weatherboykris
10:39 PM GMT on April 02, 2008
Also don't forget that part of what spurred on the record El Nino development in 2006 was the incredibly consistent and strong westerlies created by Hurricane Ioke. Without that, who knows how much longer it would have taken for El Nino to develop. So, natural variation would also need to be on El Nino's side for another 2006--in terms of El Nino anyway.
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339. AWeatherLover
10:19 PM GMT on April 02, 2008
What do you all think led to the extremes for the 2005 season? I'm just trying to better understand the variables for cyclogenesis. As far as I can see, ENSO was in neutral conditions during the hurricane season (beginning the season with slight positive El Nino). The SOI was also neutral for the entire hurricane season of 2005, as well as neutral OLR. (According to NCDC Climate Data Link )
Can anyone help me to better understand what would cause such records during the 2005 season? Thanks.
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338. weatherfromFlorida
10:12 PM GMT on April 02, 2008
319. NEwxguy 4:11 PM EDT on April 02, 2008
hard to believe there would be three quiet seasons consecutively


THE 2007 HURRICANE WAS NOT INACTIVE!
For pete sake, just because only ONE Hurricane hits the USA that makes it inactive? We got to the
O name! Not all seasons are going to be 2005! Personly also, I think this season will be an ENSO year. 2007 had 2 CAT 5's in 3 weeks apart from eachother, hitting within a 2,000 Mile range! Imagine that in the USA! That would be New Orlenes and New York being hit!
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335. weathermanwannabe
3:41 PM CST on April 02, 2008
334. KoritheMan 3:37 PM CST on April 02, 2008
So your friend says El Niño may develop and ruin the season, eh Adrian? It could develop, but I don't think as rapidly as he predicts. If it develops during hurricane season, I would imagine it would be around September or so. For El Niño to develop enough to the point where it would make this hurricane season inactive, it'd have to develop at record pace


Correct; there has been much thought over the last several seasons on this issue as to the "time lag" between seeing conditions either way, and, actually declaring a full blown "event" either way....At the current pace, if La Nina does begin to subside considerably, I could see an Enso Neutral start to the season before we ever got to an El Nino phase (later into this season if this prediction came to pass)...
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334. KoritheMan
9:34 PM GMT on April 02, 2008
So your friend says El Niño may develop and ruin the season, eh Adrian?

It could develop, but I don't think as rapidly as he predicts. If it develops during hurricane season, I would imagine it would be around September or so. For El Niño to develop enough to the point where it would make this hurricane season inactive, it'd have to develop at record pace, similar to the 2006 El Niño, and I don't see that happening. Right now, La Niña is still going strong, with only slight warm anomalies far to the east near Central America:

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333. DDR
9:35 PM GMT on April 02, 2008
Things are heating up fast over western africa
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332. weathermanwannabe
3:27 PM CST on April 02, 2008
330. TampaSpin 3:10 PM CST on April 02, 2008
This might be trouble........lol
Sen. Barack Obama said Wednesday he would give Al Gore, a Nobel prize winner, a major role in an Obama administration to address the problem of global warming.


Mandatory "carbon credit" purchases by major indutrial polluters?.....That would be quite a fight in Congress......
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331. KEEPEROFTHEGATE (Mod)
9:02 PM GMT on April 02, 2008
all i got to say about 08 season is
its coming and fast
before u know it will be here and as far as i can see 2008 just like the beginning which has been abnormal even now
will continue right into late summer
as for how many its anyones guess but one thing for sure they are coming an there is nothing u or i can do
be ready and watch how all the variables set them self up to give us little clues as it progresses along but weather will and can change always and it likes to make all us experts look a little stupid from time to time as it always does.
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330. TampaSpin
5:08 PM EDT on April 02, 2008
This might be trouble........lol
Sen. Barack Obama said Wednesday he would give Al Gore, a Nobel prize winner, a major role in an Obama administration to address the problem of global warming.
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328. hurricane23
4:36 PM EDT on April 02, 2008
326. tornadofan 4:26 PM EDT on April 02, 2008
Adrian - just wondering. Your friend didn't tell you this yesterday did he? You know... April 1st?

lol...Actually he told me something about this a month ago.Again folks taking about what might happen is all in fun right now as nobody can tell you with good accuracy what areas are going to be affected and so on.Last year was not quite by any means at all with dean and felix rolling through the caribbean.It was a season that had me wondering a few times like humberto's incredible intensification and lets not forget Erin over land.

Member Since: May 14, 2006 Posts: 8 Comments: 13597
327. NEwxguy
8:25 PM GMT on April 02, 2008
23,I know,if theres one thing I've learned from the years of studying weather,is that it doesn't follow clearcut patterns.
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326. tornadofan
8:25 PM GMT on April 02, 2008
Adrian - just wondering. Your friend didn't tell you this yesterday did he? You know... April 1st?
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325. hurricane23
4:17 PM EDT on April 02, 2008
April 2nd yea its early but thought i would put that out as anything is possible but like i said i'll take another slow year landfall wise for the U.S. rather then seeing lives destroyed.Quiet seasons can also bring
devastating results.
Member Since: May 14, 2006 Posts: 8 Comments: 13597
324. weathermanwannabe
2:22 PM CST on April 02, 2008
23.....Curious as to what your friend predicted last year as there was so much talk about an "extended" season due to La Nina which never materialized.......
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323. weathermanwannabe
2:18 PM CST on April 02, 2008
316. hurricane23 1:44 PM CST on April 02, 2008
Wow just got word from a good friend of mine which has been studying tropical cyclones for almost 20 + years that he belives el nino will shut down this season to very low numbers will possibly as far as 4-5 hurricanes with only 1 major.


That would be an example of unexpected IMHO...
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322. Drakoen
8:13 PM GMT on April 02, 2008
320. hurricane23 8:12 PM GMT on April 02, 2008
317. Drakoen 4:01 PM EDT on April 02, 2008
I don't think so Adrian but we will see.

Drak if i could tell you who my friend is you actually might start to believe it.Unfortunately i cant put out his name.Nobody knows what going to happen in reality so its useless even talking about.

Anyway i was expecting a bit more shower activity today but got some brief but heavy downpours early this morning.



I can't believe much because its April 2nd LOL.
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321. hurricane23
4:12 PM EDT on April 02, 2008
319. NEwxguy 4:11 PM EDT on April 02, 2008
hard to believe there would be three quiet seasons consecutively

Mother nature does not keep track of how many seasons are quite and busy it just does not work that way.
Member Since: May 14, 2006 Posts: 8 Comments: 13597
320. hurricane23
4:07 PM EDT on April 02, 2008
317. Drakoen 4:01 PM EDT on April 02, 2008
I don't think so Adrian but we will see.

Drak if i could tell you who my friend is you actually might start to believe it.Unfortunately i cant put out his name.Nobody knows what going to happen in reality so its useless even talking about.

Anyway i was expecting a bit more shower activity today but got some brief but heavy downpours early this morning.
Member Since: May 14, 2006 Posts: 8 Comments: 13597
319. NEwxguy
8:09 PM GMT on April 02, 2008
hard to believe there would be three quiet seasons consecutively
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318. hahaguy
3:01 PM EST on April 02, 2008
im with drak on this but thats just my opinion
Member Since: August 12, 2007 Posts: 2 Comments: 2838
317. Drakoen
8:00 PM GMT on April 02, 2008
I don't think so Adrian but we will see.
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316. hurricane23
3:40 PM EDT on April 02, 2008
Wow just got word from a good friend of mine which has been studying tropical cyclones for almost 20 + years that he belives el nino will shut down this season to very low numbers will possibly as far as 4-5 hurricanes with only 1 major.Its hard to go againest his word cause trust me most of the time he is always on the money or atleast comes very close.

I'll take another boring season even though my passion for tropical cyclones will chew at me over the next 6-8 months.Iam not interested in seeing lives ruined or homes destroyed which is something that comes with the greatest storms on earth.We all most prepare for the worst and hope for the best as you should do every hurricane season.
Member Since: May 14, 2006 Posts: 8 Comments: 13597
315. biff4ugo
7:36 PM GMT on April 02, 2008
April fool vocabulary showing 136 google hits for "cyclopsychic"!
Yep the Dr. has some influence. grin.
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314. AWeatherLover
3:34 PM EDT on April 02, 2008
I'm with you Adrian, post 311. I'm not sure how these things can be published. It causes the less knowledgeable public to become complacent at times when people should be getting prepared for whatever may happen. It's just to unpredictable to even attempt to predict this far out.
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313. weathermanwannabe
1:27 PM CST on April 02, 2008
I'll say it again; I am going to ignore all the predictions this year (banking on the long term averages of 10 plus storms)and just wait and watch what develops as the season, and various conditions, unfold........And, expect the unexpected...
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312. Patrap
2:26 PM CDT on April 02, 2008
Global Warming and Hurricanes 2006


1. New WMO/IWTC Statement on Tropical Cyclones and Climate Change

Given the high degree of interest in the possible relationship between climate change and tropical cyclones (including hurricanes and typhoons), a new summary statement on the topic has been developed by the global community of tropical cyclone researchers and forecasters as represented at the 6th International Workshop on Tropical Cyclones of the World Meteorological Organization (November 2006). A more comprehensive statement was also developed at the workshop. Link




Fig. 1. Comparison of simulated hurricane intensities for present-day (thin line) and future (thick line) climate conditions assuming an 80-year build-up of atmospheric CO2 at 1%/yr compounded. The results are aggregated from sets of experiments using nine different global climate model projections and four different versions of a high-resolution hurricane prediction model. (Sharp display version)
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 414 Comments: 125606
311. hurricane23
3:24 PM EDT on April 02, 2008
Good afternoon!

Another early prediction for this years atlantic hurricane season from WX Weather Research Center

Here's part of what they had to say...

The 2008 hurricane season will see 11 named tropical storms, with six becoming hurricanes, weather researchers said on Monday.

Half the hurricanes will become strong hurricanes, and four named storms will make landfall in the United States, the Houston-based Weather Research Center predicted.

The 2008 forecast gives 70 percent odds a cyclone will hit West Florida and 60 percent odds storms will strike the Louisiana -Mississippi-Alabama coast and the U.S. east coast.

It could be a long season, with a 30 percent chance of tropical storm formation in May and a 10 percent chance in December, the news release said.

The center uses an index called the Orbital Cyclone Strike Index, developed in 1984, to decide the risk faced by various areas along the coast.

Based partly on the 11-year solar activity cycle, the index has accurately predicted the area at highest risk in all but three of the last 24 years, the news release said. (Reporting by Bruce Nichols; Editing by Christian Wiessner).

My quick take is this is garbage as its impossible to see what conditions will be present as far as SAL and many other features that go with a developing tropical cyclone months ahead.Cant believe they get paid for this junk.
Member Since: May 14, 2006 Posts: 8 Comments: 13597
310. AWeatherLover
3:15 PM EDT on April 02, 2008
Anyone know where I can get real time radar data that is accessible with GR2Analyst? Thanks.
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309. Patrap
2:12 PM CDT on April 02, 2008
Gilbert and Wilma from the Yucatan's Perspective.Link
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 414 Comments: 125606
308. weathermanwannabe
1:03 PM CST on April 02, 2008
Just went out to lunch in Bonifay, FL (Central FL Panhandle)after being in the AC all day and the temps are 83F and very muggy....Feels like June and I left my car windows cracked for when I leave the office later........
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About JeffMasters

Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.