Cyclopsychic research breakthrough proves hurricanes/global warming connection

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 12:16 PM GMT on April 01, 2008

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A stunning new breakthrough in hurricane research has conclusively settled the matter: global warming is making Atlantic hurricanes and tropical storms more frequent. The new research, accepted for publication later this millennium in The Journal of Irreproducible Results, offers incontrovertible proof that global warming has increased Atlantic named storms by 57-67% over the past century. Using the pioneering new techniques of cyclopsychic storm detection and psychomortorodentiatempestology, the researchers, Professors Peter Webcaster and Judith Flurryfury of the Georgia Institute of Technophobia, and Dr. Greg Hallmonitor of the Colorado Association for Research and Modeling of the Atmosphere (CARMA), showed unequivocally that the lack of satellite measurements and aircraft reconnaissance in the early part of the hurricane record led to only a modest undercount of Atlantic tropical storms. Thus, more than half of the observed increase in named storms in the past century can be attributed to global warming.

"It's well-known that the number of Atlantic named storms has risen from 7-9 per year 100 years ago to 14-15 per year during the present active hurricane period that began in 1995," commented Professor Webcaster in an interview today. "Some MEEAT-loving hurricane researchers (Measure Everything, Everywhere, All the Time) have claimed that this rise was not real, since satellites and reconnaissance aircraft were not around to detect storms early in the hurricane record. We've made efforts in the past to quantify the number of 'missed' historical Atlantic storms using estimates of historical shipping traffic density, and computer regression models that compare recent well-observed storm activity to past storm activity. However, these studies have been pooh-poohed by the MEEAT men, who refuse to believe any science that comes out of a model. So, I began thinking about how we could actually go about observing historical Atlantic storms that were 'missed'. I began thinking the problem in a new light after watching my favorite episode of Star Trek: The Next Generation, "Timescape", where subspace entity mistakenly lays her eggs in the warp core singularity of a Romulan warship, creating a temporal anomaly that forces time to flow backwards. This inspired me to think outside the box, and it occurred to me that paranormal methods might offer a way to see back in time and make actual observations of past storms--and offer a technophobic solution to the problem, as encouraged by the charter of my university, the Georgia Institute of Technophobia."



Figure 1. Cyclopsychic observations of "missing" Atlantic tropical storms during the 20th century. All observations were performed by trained cyclopsychic Madame Cyclotropia. Note the significant drop in "missed" storms beginning in the 1940s, corresponding to the advent of aircraft reconnaissance, and in the 1970s, when satellite coverage of the Atlantic Ocean began.

Webcaster teamed with Hallmonitor and Flurryfury to experiment with a variety of paranormal techniques to make actual observations of past "missing" storms, using Ouija Boards, crystal ball gazing, the Magic Eight Ball, and channeling of restless dead spirits. Initial experiments proved discouraging, though, when the researchers attempted to perform the study themselves. "We were feeling depressed about how the research was going, having just stayed up late one Friday night in Greg's lab in Boulder trying to get the dang Magic Eight Ball to say something other than just REPLY HAZY, TRY AGAIN LATER," related Dr. Webcaster. "So, we decided to give up for the night and down a few shots of grape jello spiked with grain alcohol and delve into Greg's extensive collection of Zippy the Pinhead comic books. After a few jello shots and Zippy comics, we got feeling pretty loose, and, Yow! Decided to trek down to Pearl Street to check out the weekend psychic fair. Well, we got to staggering around the tents of the psychic fair, belting out the sorrowful lyrics of our own version of "Somewhere over the rainbow" we made up:

Somewhere, over the ocean
Back in time
Cyclones formed and decayed
Unseen by humankind

Somehow, we'll find out how many
Before we die
But it doesn't look good
'Cause the Magic Eight Ball lies!

Suddenly, we saw a mysterious shadowy figure beckoning to us from the entrance of a nearby tent, which was emblazoned with the words, Madame Cyclotropia: Psychic Readings for Troubled Atmospheric Scientists. 'I can help you find your missing storms', the seer in the shadows croaked, 'for I know much that is hidden. Come into my lair, and I will reveal the key to unlocking the mysteries of storms long past'. Greg and I looked at each other, shrugged, walked in her tent, and the rest is history."

Once in Madame Cyclotropia's tent, the researchers quickly realized that their limited scientific training could not hope to allow them to conduct rigorous paranormal research. Only a true cyclopsychic with "The Gift" could see back into the dim mists of time to divine the existence of heretofore unknown tropical cyclones. Using her cyclopsychic gift, Madame Cyclotropia correctly divined the past tracks of numerous known storms the scientists challenged her with. However, when asked to divine the existence of "missing" Atlantic storms that had not made it into the official database, she prophesied that she would only be able to do so if the scientists would write her into their latest grant proposal. This grant proposal would surely get funded, she predicted. The scientists eagerly agreed, and headed back to the lab to work on the new proposal.

Webcaster, Hallmonitor, and Flurryfury's proposal, titled, "Using a Trained Cyclopsychic to Divine Past Atlantic Tropical Cyclone Activity", was submitted to the Foundation for Atmospheric Research for Science and Education (FARSE) in early 2007 and accepted later that year. After receiving their grant money, the scientists began spending long nights in Madame Cyclotropia's tent, documenting her revelations from the four primary cyclopsychic techniques: Ouija Board, crystal ball gazing, the Magic Eight Ball, and channeling of restless dead spirits. According to Dr. Hallmonitor, "We were thrilled when the first three techniques we tried all yielded virtually identical results, showing the robustness of our experimental methodology. The three techniques all showed a noticeable drop in the number of "missed" storms in the 1940s, when aircraft reconnaissance became available, and in the 1970s, when satellites coverage began over the Atlantic Ocean. However, when we tried to channel restless dead spirits, we ran into a roadblock. We couldn't find any restless dead spirits with an interest or knowledge of historical Atlantic hurricanes. We happily attributed this to the propensity of dead meteorologists to wind up inside Heaven's Pearly Gates, but were sad that our research would lack this crucial final proof of its validity. We were about to give up when Peter then hit upon the idea of contacting the spirits of groundhogs, who are known for their weather prognosticating ability. Some of these prognosticating rodents might have unfinished business that would keep their restless souls adrift in the ether, available for consultation on weather-related matters. We coined word psychomortorodentiatempestology to describe this exciting new branch of hurricane science, and set off in search of gifted groundhogs spirits with this special skill."



Figure 2. Wee Willy One and Chucky before their departure into the hereafter. Which rodent's spirit would you trust to get accurate weather information from?

Indeed, Madame Cyclotropia was able to contact the spirit of "Wee Willy One", a famed albino groundhog that had once burrowed under the fair gardens of Wiarton, Ontario, and provided weather forecasts each Groundhog's Day up until his death in 2006. Wee Willy One proved to be testy and uncooperative, though, deliberately delivering incorrect storm information. The researchers sought out help from cyclotherapy experts from the Center for Disease Control's Weather Related Illness Division to determine if cyclotherapy might help Wee Willy One overcome his bad attitude. Cyclotherapist Dr. Sandy Chirpchuckle diagnosed Wee Willy One as a cyclopath suffering from rare form of cyclopsychosis. Ordinarily, cyclopsychosis manifests itself only in hurricane scientists and weather enthusiasts during the long, dull months prior to hurricane season. The despondent victims of cyclopsychosis spend long hours in front of flickering computer monitors in dark, gloomy rooms, obsessively poring over maps and statistics of hurricanes long gone by. The victims tend to become highly antisocial but never violent, and can be successfully treated with cycloactive drugs. However, Dr. Chirpchuckle diagnosed Wee Willy One with an extremely rare case of "shadow" cyclopsychosis, brought on by the cyclological trauma being rudely hauled out of his burrow each February 2 so that a bunch of cockamaimie humans could see whether he saw his shadow or not. "Shadow" cyclopsychosis is incurable, both in this world and the hereafter, so Madame Cyclotropia was forced to seek out other groundhog spirits. After months of effort, she finally found the spirit of "Chucky", a friendly groundhog that had once burrowed under the gardens of Nashville, Tennessee. Chucky eagerly provided accurate information on the "missing" Atlantic tropical storms that was precisely in agreement with the data collected from the other cyclopsychic techniques. "We were ecstatic," exclaimed Dr. Hallmonitor. "More jello shots!"

Hurricane experts world-wide are hailing the new findings. "These exciting results conclusively prove that even us blind squirrels can find some nuts," enthused renown hurricane expert, Dr. Kerry Readthemanual of the Massachusetts Institute of Technophobia. Dr. Readthemanual has been a leading proponent of the global warming/Atlantic hurricane link. Even former critics are praising the new findings. Dr. William Graymatter, Professor Über-Emeritus of Colorado State University's Center for Hurricane Observation, Measurement, and Prediction (CHOMP), said in an interview: "I've been in the hurricane business for 113 years, and I know good research when I see it. The findings of Webcaster, Hallmonitor, and Flurryfury are based on solid observational evidence and white magic. There's no black magic involved, such as the use of a computer model, so their results are impregnable."

Dr. Chris Blandsee, Chief Scientist of the Natural Hurricane Center's division of Global Warming Isn't Responsible for the Recent Upswing in Atlantic Hurricane Activity, and Even If It Was, We Wouldn't be Able to Tell, Since the Quality of the Atlantic Hurricane Database is Too Poor to Use for Such Purposes (NHC/GWIRRUAHAEIIWWWATSQAHDTPUSP), has also been critical of past research showing a link between hurricanes and global warming, maintaining that global warming isn't responsible for the recent upswing in Atlantic hurricane activity, and even if it was, we wouldn't be able to tell, since the quality of the Atlantic hurricane database is too poor to use for such purposes. It was his Congressional testimony, along with that of former NHC director Max Minefield, which inspired President Bushwhacker's administration to rename the National Hurricane Center the "Natural Hurricane Center" last year. (This action was also urged by the Government Anagram Accountability Office (GAAO), which found that the letters in "National Hurricane Center" could be rearranged to spell the ominous phrase, "Errant Herculean Inaction"--and also the disturbing, "Teenier Charlatan Unicorn", and the clearly unacceptable, "Inhale Cocaine, Errant Runt!", while the letters in "Natural Hurricane Center" could be rearranged to form phrases much more in harmony with the NHC mission, such as "Natural, Neater, Crunchier.")

Dr. Blandsee grudgingly gave ground in his comments today. "It looks like Webcaster, Hallmonitor, and Flurryfury (and don't try to say her name three times fast) have done some pretty rigorous scientific work," he conceded. "But they've written what is probably the longest and most excruciatingly dull hurricane science paper of all time. All those old storms and their analyzed tracks that they talk about, on and on and on, year by year by year. Ugh! A lot of good trees died to publish that paper. It was even duller than some of my clunkers!"

What's next for the pioneering researchers? "Well, CARMA and the Georgia Institute of Technophobia are collaborating on a grant proposal with Dr. Graymatter and Phil Flossblack of CHOMP to apply cyclopsychic methods in a new way--improvement of seasonal hurricane forecasts," said Dr. Flurryfury. "We've submitted a proposal to FARSE titled, 'Gray Magic: Using Cyclopsychic Methods to Improve Seasonal Hurricane Forecasts'. Lord knows, the forecast busts of the past two hurricane seasons have shown that Flossblack and Dr. Graymatter could use some supernatural help with their predictions."

April Fools!
Meff Jasters

References
Hallmonitor, G.J., and P.J. Webcaster, 2007, "Heightened tropical cyclone activity in the North Atlantic: natural variability or climate trend?" Philosophical Transactions of The Royal Society A 365, Number 1860, 15 November 2007, Pages: 26952716 DOI: 10.1098/rsta.2007.2083

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408. TerraNova
3:28 PM EDT on April 03, 2008
"Noted US Hurricane Forecaster Expects Busy Season"

Looks like Colorado State University is expecting an above average season. Bill Gray explains;

La Nina cool-water conditions in the Pacific and higher sea surface temperatures in the eastern Atlantic are contributing to enhanced conditions for hurricane activity, Gray told Reuters at the U.S. National Hurricane Conference.

"Also, the sea surface temperatures in the eastern Atlantic particularly off Iberia and off northwest Africa, they are very warm, much like they were at this time in 1995 and 2005 when we had very active seasons," he said.
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407. Patrap
2:19 PM CDT on April 03, 2008
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 427 Comments: 129352
406. hurricane23
3:14 PM EDT on April 03, 2008
Whats got me a tad concerned for 2008 is the azores high is weaker than the last couple of years and upper level winds are already running below average in the tropical atlantic.More details on what the season might look like will come about in 6-8 weeks.
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405. TerraNova
3:12 PM EDT on April 03, 2008
404. TerraNova
3:11 PM EDT on April 03, 2008
Afternoon everyone!

A Severe Thunderstorm watch has just been issued for portions of Oklahoma and North Texas; including Oklahoma City and Abilene.

Watch probabilities:

WT 0153
PROBABILITY TABLE:
PROB OF 2 OR MORE TORNADOES : 40%
PROB OF 1 OR MORE STRONG /F2-F5/ TORNADOES : 20%
PROB OF 10 OR MORE SEVERE WIND EVENTS : 40%
PROB OF 1 OR MORE WIND EVENTS >= 65 KNOTS : 30%
PROB OF 10 OR MORE SEVERE HAIL EVENTS : >95%
PROB OF 1 OR MORE HAIL EVENTS >= 2 INCHES : 80%
PROB OF 6 OR MORE COMBINED SEVERE HAIL/WIND EVENTS : >95%
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403. weatherboyfsu
6:57 PM GMT on April 03, 2008
He was a great weatherman......I cant believe he died and I didnt hear about it. All you young people have to understand that back in the 80's weather people like us were consider freaks..... And living where I did, kinda in the middle between Orlando and Tampa. I could pick up Tampa stations better than Orlando. It just depended on the atmosphere. We didnt have cable and computers like today. I remember watching Channel 8, 10, and 13. Back then, they had the best radars and overall weather. Roy Leep was on 13 and Dick fletcher was on 10. I cant remember the guy on 8. A bald headed guy. I am sadden to see that he is gone.

More on Dick Fletcher!


"I can't count the storms that Dick has been on the air for endless hours, but it sometimes would cut into his life," wrote Deeson in a tribute to Fletcher. "I'm not sure what storm it was, but Cindy had planned a birthday party. We were all at Cindy and Dick's house as he kept checking the computer and said he had to leave his own party, because the storm was heading our way. Dick was the first to go and slowly we all ended up leaving the party and reassembling at the station for another weekend of storm duty."

WTSP anchor Reginald Roundtree remembered how Fletcher kept tracking Hurricane Charley on air in 2004, even as the approaching storm forced the station to evacuate its St. Petersburg studio and broadcast from a county-owned public access studio in Clearwater. "He just had one radar loop, and explained (the storm) like he had a whole symphony of equipment behind him," said Roundtree. "I remember him telling me, 'Every time I think about leaving (during storm coverage), I think about that older couple in Pinellas Park who is hanging on my every word. And I stay.'"
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402. StormHype
6:44 PM GMT on April 03, 2008
Fletcher was great. He passed away in Feb from a stroke. A friend of mine who interviewed with him up in NOLA for the kickoff of the 2006 hurricane season said he chain-smoked like a maniac, but was a really good guy and was giving cash out of his wallet to some homeless folks.
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401. weatherboyfsu
6:24 PM GMT on April 03, 2008
I came across this while lurking at the Hurricane conference news........I cant believe it. I grew up watching Dick Fletcher and Roy Leep in the 80's. He very good at what he did. We have lost another great weather leader!

February 26, 2008
TV weatherman Dick Fletcher dies
Dick Fletcher, the dean of Tampa Bay TV weather forecasters, has died. He never recovered from a massive stroke he suffered last week.

Fletcher, 65, was discovered by his wife Cindy at their home last Monday afternoon. Citing confidentiality laws and concerns for the family, officials at the CBS affiliate declined to release many details, saying doctors would know more in a few days. The station received hundreds of calls from well-wishers.

WTSP is expected to officially announce Fletcher's death during its news broadcasts soon.

Fletcher joined the station in March 1980, once offering a "3-degree-guarantee," giving a Ch. 10 mug or T-shirt to a viewer if his forecasts were off more by than 3 degrees.

The station plans a special tribute to Fletcher at 10 a.m.

- Times staff writer
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400. StormHype
6:15 PM GMT on April 03, 2008
This is temporary. We will be back in a prefrontal SW flow on Saturday

What about next week?
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399. Altestic
6:12 PM GMT on April 03, 2008
Look at all those cool anomalies in the Carribbean/Gulf/Tatl.
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398. VentureH
6:03 PM GMT on April 03, 2008
396. weatherboyfsu 5:31 PM GMT on April 03, 2008
Global Warming's a Myth, Insists Hurricane Expert
Mike Synan 04/03/2008 09:33:02


Interesting title for the article. Nowhere in it do I see Dr. Gray actually denying global warming. Rather, he seems to be challenging the position that GW will cause more and stronger hurricanes. But I wasn't there for the interview, so who knows...
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397. FLWeatherFreak91
5:41 PM GMT on April 03, 2008
395. StormHype 5:30 PM GMT on April 03, 2008
FL westcoast seabreeze tstorm machine started kicking in this week (april 1st) which usually doesn't start until late June. SE flow typical of mid summer. Is this just a few day fluke or more of a pattern that will last a while?


This is temporary. We will be back in a prefrontal SW flow on Saturday
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396. weatherboyfsu
5:21 PM GMT on April 03, 2008
Dr. Gray, You tell him what time it is!

Global Warming's a Myth, Insists Hurricane Expert

Mike Synan 04/03/2008 09:33:02



The world's top hurricane forecaster says don't believe the hype of global warming. He's in town for this year's hurricane conference and sat down with me for a one-on-one interview.

"I am very disappointed at the media," Dr. William Gray stated flatly, charging that we've been entirely too willing to just repeat whatever scientists say. The problem, according to Gray, is that the scientists are ignoring salinity as the indicator of hurricanes. "We have no theory, if the sea surface temperatures get a little warmer, why we should have more storms."

The opposite would be better science, Dr. Gray argues. So why are so many scientists getting on the bandwagon?

Because, Gray pointed out, "There's money in this."

Gray said he lost most of his funding in the Clinton years because he wouldn't get on the bandwagon. As for this hurricane season, he told me to expect an above average, busy one. His official forecast comes out next week.
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395. StormHype
5:26 PM GMT on April 03, 2008
FL westcoast seabreeze tstorm machine started kicking in this week (april 1st) which usually doesn't start until late June. SE flow typical of mid summer. Is this just a few day fluke or more of a pattern that will last a while?
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394. Patrap
12:10 PM CDT on April 03, 2008
Hurricane experts wonder if lull will continue in 2008 Link

By Gareth McGrath


The devastation wrought by Hurricanes Katrina and Rita on the Gulf Coast made 2005 a record year, topping the massive destruction caused by four powerful storms that ripped through Florida a year earlier.

Then came 2006 and 2007, which proved to be smooth sailing for the continental United States in spite of dire predictions of another rough season, although the Caribbean was slammed.

North Carolina has had a particularly good run since Hurricane Floyd flooded much of the eastern part of the state in 1999, with Hurricane Isabel the only storm of any magnitude to impact the state since then.

So will this be our year? No one knows.

Even William Gray, the famed hurricane prognosticator from Colorado State University, admits his popular storm forecast predictions don't always hit the bull's-eye. "Moreover, these forecasts do not specifically predict where within the Atlantic basin these storms will strike," Gray states in his December forecast for the 2008 hurricane season. "The probability of landfall for any one location along the coast is very low and reflects the fact that, in any one season, most U.S. coastal areas will not feel the effects of a hurricane no matter how active the individual season is."

The accuracy of predicting hurricanes will be a central theme at this years's National Hurricane Conference in Orlando, which starts today.

Throw in global warming, which may or may not be making the Atlantic Basin a petri dish for stronger and deadlier storms, depending on which experts you talk to, and even local emergency management folks are often left scratching their heads. "Some information that we've been receiving so far shows that the possibility of having a more active season this year exists," said Randy Thompson, head of Brunswick County Emergency Management. "But historically, those predictions haven't had a very good track record."

So the best answer is to plan, prepare and plan some more.

The reason is that while forecasters can't tell when the next big one will make landfall in North Carolina, they know eventually one will.

Hazel, Diana, Bonnie, Fran, Bertha, Floyd and Isabel.

The names are enough to make old salts along coastal North Carolina take a deep breath. But it's been five years since a strong hurricane struck the Tar Heel state, nine years since Floyd tore through Southeastern North Carolina.

During that time the coast has rebounded and its population has surged, with people drawn by a combination of largely undeveloped beaches, relatively low taxes, affordable property and a temperate climate.

Since Floyd, the population of New Hanover, Brunswick and Pender counties has jumped by almost 100,000 residents.

Thompson said the continual influx of residents to places like Brunswick County, perennially one of the country's fastest growing counties, poses a constant challenge in educating newbies about living in hurricane alley - especially when there aren't any storms in the county's recent history.

State climatologist Ryan Boyles said it's human nature to base your opinion on what happens in your own back yard. "The perception is it's only an active season if it affects you," he said.

A devastating storm striking in a populated area also can often mask what otherwise is a quiet hurricane season.

Take 1992 for example.

"Hurricane Andrew was the only land-falling hurricane in the mainland U.S. that year," Boyle said of the Category 5 monster that smashed through South Florida, causing $38 billion worth of damage in today's dollars. "But it was a really bad storm that sticks out in people's minds.

"All it takes is one really bad storm and people will remember it."

Gareth McGrath: 343-2384

gareth.mcgrath@starnewsonline.com
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 427 Comments: 129352
393. Patrap
11:56 AM CDT on April 03, 2008
Al Gore PSA on NOAA radios Link



But Cheney is a better shot ..LOL



Dick should do a Gun Safety PSA, for the Public.



Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 427 Comments: 129352
392. MacLorry
4:46 PM GMT on April 03, 2008
The problems with such April fools jokes is that real fools don’t get it. I expect Al Gore will be citing this study in his next TV interview.
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391. SavannahStorm
4:42 PM GMT on April 03, 2008
In 2005 though there were like no cape verde storms.... so the warm water off africa didn't really matter.....unless it has some other atmospheric effect.

In 2005 the SAL was hindering the development of African waves until they reached far enough west to escape the dust. However, the warm eastern Atlantic allowed these waves to survive, instead of being choked out of existence.
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390. KEEPEROFTHEGATE (Mod)
4:23 PM GMT on April 03, 2008
early mini rainy season its all coming early
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389. TampaSpin
11:14 AM EDT on April 03, 2008
Weatherboy its like June in Tampa today also.
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388. weatherboyfsu
2:52 PM GMT on April 03, 2008
Link
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387. weatherboyfsu
2:51 PM GMT on April 03, 2008
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386. weatherboyfsu
2:35 PM GMT on April 03, 2008
Lets see if I can get this pic on here.......
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385. sporteguy03
2:27 PM GMT on April 03, 2008
Haha Meff Masters that gave me a good laugh.
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384. weatherboyfsu
2:05 PM GMT on April 03, 2008
Good everyone,

Another great day in paradise.....Again over a inch of rain in my little town, lots of lightning and wind. Very surprising to come home and tree branches are down all over the place. At my home, I received 2.38 rain total for the last two days. Not bad for our dry season. The rain is widespread as well.....Now we have a 50% percent chance of rain today...Thats the highest chance in a while and the NWS has a chance of rain everyday thru Tuesday........Got a nice photo of a thunderstorm yesterday and will put it up today.....
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383. Patrap
8:51 AM CDT on April 03, 2008
Max Mayfield Speaks At Hurricane Conference]

ORLANDO, Fla. -- A well-known name in weather forecasting made an appearance in Orlando on Wednesday.

Max Mayfield spoke at the National Hurricane Conference on Wednesday afternoon.

Mayfield is the former director of the National Hurricane Center. Bill Read replaced Mayfield in 2008, and he's considered low key and a self-described weather geek.
Link
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382. Weather456
8:42 AM AST on April 03, 2008
Visible imagery of African Dust

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381. Weather456
7:54 AM AST on April 03, 2008
GM,

....SYNOPSIS....

GULF OF MEXICO/NORTHWEST ATLANTIC OCEAN WEST OF 50W....

An upper ridge over the Eastern Pacific continues to maintain northwesterly winds aloft over the Mexico and the Gulf of Mexico. This dry stable flow is allowing skies to be fair to mostly clear across the area. The combination of a broad area of low pressure over Mainland Mexico and an anticyclone in the Western Atlantic will provide the Gulf waters with 10-15 knot easterly flow producing 3-4 ft seas. A few scattered showers will enter the Gulf in the short term in association with frontal activity over the South-Central United States. Expect seas to increase to 6-8 ft in response to the increasing pressure gradient between low pressure that is expected to move over Mexico/Texas and an expanding ridge over the Western Atlantic.

A surface cold front extends from the Southeast United States along 32N/75W 33N/70W to beyond 35N/60W. A broad zone showers is within 160 nmi of the front west of 70W and within 60 nmi eastward. Meanwhile, the dominant feature across the Atlantic this morning continues to be a 1028 mb high centered near 29N/47W. This ridge is supporting an extensive stratocumulus cloud deck and providing fresh to strong trades across the area from 45W to 85W, which is impacting the Northern Caribbean and to a lesser extent the Southern Bahamas with 15-30 knot winds and 12-13 ft seas. Small craft advisory is in effect for unfavorable marine conditions.

CENTRAL AMERICA AND THE CARIBBEAN REGION....

An upper trough continues to be the bad weather producer across the Caribbean today. The trough is producing scattered to numerous scattered showers over the area between 75W and 67W north of 15N, which includes Jamaica, Southeast Cuba, the Turks and Hispaniola with debris moisture spreading over Puerto Rico and the Virgin Islands.

Atlantic high pressure north of our area will continue to maintain a strong pressure gradient across the region with 15-30 knot easterly winds. This high pressure system is also responsible for advecting numerous widespread showers across the Leeward Islands, Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico. Expect seas of 8-12 ft seas across local waters with higher seas and winds under shower activity and over open waters. Seas will be 5-9 ft over the open waters of the Central Caribbean, decreasing to 3 ft over the Western Caribbean. Seas will only begin to get worst as the high pressure expands and the pressure gradient continues to increase. Expect 12 ft seas in the Eastern Caribbean with 5-9 ft seas spreading westward over the remainder of the Caribbean Sea. Small craft advisory remain in effect for unfavorable marine conditions through at least 1200 UTC Friday.

by W456
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379. KoritheMan
11:08 AM GMT on April 03, 2008
We really won't be able to get a good picture of what the season may be like till around May. Conjecture at this point is like throwing darts blindfolded.

I agree. Predicting at this time of year is just pure speculation, plain and simple. Most of the time, the May forecasts aren't even accurate, so predicting is pretty much pointless in its entirety.
Member Since: March 7, 2007 Posts: 601 Comments: 21198
378. all4hurricanes
10:31 AM GMT on April 03, 2008
Back on the new england hurricane subject I did some research and found that a new england hurricane happens about once a decade although the have been two new england storms in one year and there have been thirty year lulls without them. I think we are actually over due for a 25 year lull that is happening now.
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377. Michfan
8:20 AM GMT on April 03, 2008
We really won't be able to get a good picture of what the season may be like till around May. Conjecture at this point is like throwing darts blindfolded.
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376. KEEPEROFTHEGATE (Mod)
6:03 AM GMT on April 03, 2008
if you think katina left a foot print wait till the long overdue long island express rolls in that will be the biggest footprint in our time 456
its happen before it will happen again just a matter of time.
time left 58 days 17 hrs 42 mins GMT
2008 hurricane season
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375. JustSouthofEquator
4:53 AM GMT on April 03, 2008
Ha ha :D, I absolutely love the bit about madame Cyclotropia, I can't believe I didn't realise it was a joke even after seeing the graph :D

Very well done Dr. Masters

Here in Southeast Australia the weather was not fun fare yesterday. A strong low pressure system injected with moisture from ex-cyclone Pancho did a number on us. Melbourne, Victoria received wind gust up to 130 km/hour causing damage to trees, roofs and yachts in the marina. Sadly an elderly woman was killed when the post office brick wall collapse on her.

As bad as it was here, Tasmania got the worst of the storm with wind gust up 170 km/hour. Damage to houses there was even more severe and a van was reported to be blown over.

Link
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374. Weather456
12:44 AM AST on April 03, 2008
The below chart show the reason for the recent burst in convective actvity over West Africa. There is a large amount of wind shear in the lower atmopshere. There is pronounce moisture influx from the Ocean indicated by the southwesterly winds from the surface to 800 mb. Above 800 mb northeasterlies replace these winds to about 500 mb. These northeasterlies are dry as they are blowing from the Saharan Desert. Naturally, the dry northeasterlies advect over the moist southwesterlies creating an unstable situation.



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373. Tazmanian
9:07 PM PDT on April 02, 2008
ok STL



good night all and all
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372. MichaelSTL
11:03 PM CDT on April 02, 2008
Taz, a Cape Verde storm develops near the Cape Verde islands; those storms developed further west, closer to the Caribbean. Irene was the only one in 2005. For comparison, Helene in 2006 and Dean and Melissa last year were Cape Verde storms (Melissa was the closest, but they don't have to form right on the Cape Verdes).

Irene:


Helene:


Dean:


Melissa:
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371. MichaelSTL
10:53 PM CDT on April 02, 2008
so the warm water off africa didn't really matter.....unless it has some other atmospheric effect.



The link at the bottom of Dr. Masters' entry provides some insight into the role of eastern Atlantic SSTs and hurricane activity (last year it was relatively cool).
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370. Tazmanian
8:45 PM PDT on April 02, 2008
huh???


what about Emily and this name a few Emily was a cape verde storm

Hurricane Dennis was a cape verde storm all most took the same track has Emily


Hurricane Irene was a cape verde storm


so there was about 3 cape verde storms in 2005
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369. cjnew
3:37 AM GMT on April 03, 2008
In 2005 though there were like no cape verde storms.... so the warm water off africa didn't really matter.....unless it has some other atmospheric effect.
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368. Tazmanian
8:32 PM PDT on April 02, 2008
Noted U.S. hurricane forecaster expects busy season Wed Apr 2, 6:10 PM ET



ORLANDO, Florida (Reuters) - The noted Colorado State University forecast team expects an above average Atlantic hurricane season and may raise its prediction of 13 tropical storms and seven hurricanes when it updates its outlook next week, the team's founder Bill Gray said on Wednesday.


La Nina cool-water conditions in the Pacific and higher sea surface temperatures in the eastern Atlantic are contributing to enhanced conditions for hurricane activity, Gray told Reuters at the U.S. National Hurricane Conference.

"We're expecting an above average season," Gray said. "The big question we have is, are we going to raise the numbers from our December forecast? We might."

"We're not going to lower the numbers," he said.The average hurricane season produces about 10 tropical storms and six hurricanes -- a standard that was blown out of the water in the record-busting season of 2005, when 28 storms formed, including the hurricane that swamped New Orleans, Katrina.

The Colorado State team issues forecasts several times a year. In December, it said it expected the 2008 season starting June 1 to produce 13 tropical storms, of which seven would become hurricanes and three would be major hurricanes with winds of at least 111 miles per hour (178 km per hour).

Gray said La Nina, a cooling of waters in the eastern Pacific that can enhance conditions for hurricane activity in the Atlantic, will be "on the cold side."

"Also, the sea surface temperatures in the eastern Atlantic particularly off Iberia and off northwest Africa, they are very warm, much like they were at this time in 1995 and 2005 when we had very active seasons," he said.
(Reporting by Jim Loney, editing by Michael


Link
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367. pottery
10:58 PM AST on April 02, 2008
Scientists in the UK have been un- able to find any correlation between the Sun's recent activity, and climate change.
From the BBC
This should cause a stir..........
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366. jadnash
2:51 AM GMT on April 03, 2008
Oh, my -

I can't describe the honor and glory of reading Dr Master's hilarious piece and finding my little chucky's picture as Groundhog B

http://www.wunderground.com/wximage/wximage/myphotos.html?album_id=58&handle=jadnash

I can proudly tell my grandkids about the pivotal role he played in this stunning breakthrough research. Well, guess I have to work on the grandkids part...

Well done Dr Masters!
jadnash
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365. Weather456
10:00 PM AST on April 02, 2008
I dont understand why after more than two years Katrina foot print is still so large.
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364. Stormchaser2007
2:01 AM GMT on April 03, 2008
ANY forecast that ANYONE makes now is just a shot in the dark and really should not be taken as "written in stone".
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363. Stormchaser2007
1:57 AM GMT on April 03, 2008
I dont know Taz its April we still have a long ways to go....
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362. Tazmanian
6:54 PM PDT on April 02, 2008
so oh do you think oh will be in the it this year FL or the gulf of MX???
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361. Stormchaser2007
1:50 AM GMT on April 03, 2008
Hate to say it but I don't think that 58 days is enough time for the gov't to place 7200 families out of trailers and into homes or what not, especially in the housing crisis that were in now. Sorry to bring the economy into the weather:(IMO
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360. hahaguy
8:48 PM EST on April 02, 2008
did anyone see the interview with jim cantore interviewing the NHC director Bill Reid on twc about the quickscat satellite.
Member Since: August 12, 2007 Posts: 2 Comments: 2838
359. KEEPEROFTHEGATE (Mod)
1:38 AM GMT on April 03, 2008
well they got 58 days 1hr 43 min edt till start of 2008 season
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358. Patrap
8:36 PM CDT on April 02, 2008
N.O. may set June 1 trailer deadline
Blakely: 'We do not want to be trailer city'
Thursday, March 27, 2008
By Michelle Krupa


Story:Link

An estimated 7,200 trailers remain in New Orleans, with 202 of them assembled at playgrounds and other public sites, and the rest installed on private properties, Blakely said. Most people still living in trailers are older than 50 and are caught in financial limbo: even with Road Home and insurance payments, they can't afford to rebuild their homes, he said.



My Area where we lived in the FEMA trailer from Dec 05-FEb 08,Just Next to Orleans and Jefferson
Kenner pushes to remove trailers
City, FEMA to find alternatives by June 1
Saturday, March 15, 2008
By Mary Sparacello
Link
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 427 Comments: 129352

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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.