New blog organization effort

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 2:00 PM GMT on March 28, 2008

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Well, today's blog marks my 921st blog since I began blogging in April of 2005. At long last, I've found time to organize my blogs by subject so we can easily find an old blog. This is now a permanent link at the right of my blog page under the "Previous Entries for 2008" section titled, "Complete Archive by Subject--new!" I've broken out my blogs on individual hurricanes and tropical storms for a particular year into their own index page; my busiest year was (duh!) 2005, when I wrote 251 blogs on the individual storms that occurred. My record for most blogs in a month is 68, set in September of 2005.

Greatest hits
I'm not sure how how each blog ranks in terms of number of readers, but below is a list of five blogs I spent the most time working on. These aren't necessarily the blogs I am proudest of. I am still trying to find the right balance between providing unbiased scientific facts and my personal opinions. For the most part, I feel my blogs are most valuable when I allow readers to draw their own conclusions based on the facts presented. For example, I say little on what efforts should be made to slow down global warming. I am not an expert in policy or economics. However, I do get very upset when I hear politicians and scientists lying or distorting the facts, and feel a strong need to speak up when that occurs. Many of the below blogs reflect that passion:

Climate Change: An analysis of Dr. Richard Lindzen's Wall Street Journal op-ed accusing climate scientists of alarmism: Climate of Fear.

Hurricanes: The appalling failure of our elected leaders to prevent the Katrina disaster: Katrina: an unnatural disaster.

Politics: The numbers former National Hurricane Center chief Bill Proenza used to justify replacement of the aging QuikSCAT satellite just didn't add up: Challenging Bill Proenza's QuikSCAT numbers.

Air Pollution: Which is worse--a Category 5 hurricane, or a major air pollution episode? Pick your poison.

Aviation: A flight I took into a hurricane strength 'Noreaster in 1989: Flying into a record 'Noreaster.

Humor: Well, the image of George W. Bush at the National Hurricane Center that appears as the image header for the humor section is from a blog I haven't posted yet. Tune in on Tuesday, April 1, to see a hurricane humor piece I put a rather ridiculous amount of effort into!

Thanks go to all of you who've contributed to the value of this blog by posting intelligent comments, and those who share their weather knowledge and experiences through their own blogs. I also want to thank the many Personal Weather Station owners who upload their data, and the wunderphotographers that share their pictures. I've linked a few of my favorites from past blogs below. I look forward to many more years of blogging!

Jeff Masters

Rainbow whale (Jhfelder)
Rainbow made From a sperm whale using his blowhole
Rainbow whale
Charlotte County, Florida tornado (Sunburnt)
Another image of the tornado, as it touched down in Punta Gorda, Florida
Charlotte County, Florida tornado

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Not only will you be able to leave comments on this blog, but you'll also have the ability to upload and share your photos in our Wunder Photos section.

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811. biff4ugo
12:23 PM GMT on April 01, 2008
Bush Declairs We are leaving IRAQ!

April fools! :-(
Member Since: December 28, 2006 Posts: 113 Comments: 1536
810. all4hurricanes
11:31 AM GMT on April 01, 2008
Oh really I didn't know that
Member Since: March 29, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 2342
809. redagainPatti
11:06 AM GMT on April 01, 2008
all4hurricanes 10:42 AM GMT on April 01, 2008
I forgot to mention its supposed to rain again today April showers bring May flowers


And the May Flowers bring JUNE BUGS!!!
Member Since: July 10, 2005 Posts: 122 Comments: 1503
808. all4hurricanes
10:42 AM GMT on April 01, 2008
I forgot to mention its supposed to rain again today April showers bring May flowers
Talk later
Member Since: March 29, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 2342
807. all4hurricanes
10:33 AM GMT on April 01, 2008
Merry Happy Aprils Fools Day

Yesterday in Northern Virginia it rained and highs were in the 60s two weeks before highs reached 70 and it was sunny. In VA is in like a Lamb out Like a Lion
the weather was similar last year
Member Since: March 29, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 2342
806. TayTay
3:15 AM GMT on April 01, 2008
Nice little extratropical storm off of Japan right now.
805. Patrap
2:46 AM GMT on April 01, 2008
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 419 Comments: 127371
804. sebastianjer
2:41 AM GMT on April 01, 2008
The Clean Energy Scam-TIME
Member Since: August 26, 2005 Posts: 1030 Comments: 11197
803. Patrap
2:38 AM GMT on April 01, 2008
Google "NAM,GFS tropical Models"..you'll find a couple thousands links to it.
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 419 Comments: 127371
802. Patrap
2:37 AM GMT on April 01, 2008
Lighten up dude, the poster was just acknowledging the severe Weather in Mo.

His language was not nice, in any way... I wonder how many children have read that?




Well..at least one has I can certainly say..LOL
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 419 Comments: 127371
801. stormhank
2:04 AM GMT on April 01, 2008
can someone give me a link to the NAM GFS model page please. I had to re install puter and lost all my shortcuts
Member Since: September 8, 2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 1383
800. Cavin Rawlins
1:58 AM GMT on April 01, 2008
Member Since: July 24, 2005 Posts: 407 Comments: 19076
799. kmanislander
1:58 AM GMT on April 01, 2008
Seasonal forecasting is much like playing roulette; bet on more or less active ( red or black ) and you have a 50/50 chance of being right. Bet on a specific number and the odds of being wrong go up significantly.
Member Since: August 19, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 15687
797. Cavin Rawlins
1:52 AM GMT on April 01, 2008
Low in the NW Pacific Ocean

QuikSCAT of the low

Member Since: July 24, 2005 Posts: 407 Comments: 19076
796. kmanislander
1:44 AM GMT on April 01, 2008
Just got back from Jackson Hole.

3 feet of fresh powder at the end of March !
Member Since: August 19, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 15687
795. Patrap
1:44 AM GMT on April 01, 2008
As I have said many times b4..
I dont pay no mind to Seasonal Forecasts.
They incomplete guesses at best.
I focus on impacts and aftereffects..mostly.

Hard nuff to focus on Preparation and the individual Threats, to consider what someone or some University group comes up with Number wise.

They serve no real purpose other than hype,media attention and Blog spats. In my opinion.
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 419 Comments: 127371
794. Cavin Rawlins
1:43 AM GMT on April 01, 2008
The reasoning behind it not being a wave becuz it does not appear to have formed or maintained within by the instability of the AEJ. But interesting convection.
Member Since: July 24, 2005 Posts: 407 Comments: 19076
790. Patrap
1:39 AM GMT on April 01, 2008
Okay...doing Taxes on line.

Beating Uncle Sam best I can.
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 419 Comments: 127371
789. Cavin Rawlins
1:38 AM GMT on April 01, 2008
A vigorous broad area of low pressure along the Gulf of Guinea Coast. 700 mb analyses showed a bit of potential vort with this system with accompanied surge of northeasterlies. Interesting feature but does not appear to be associated with a African Wave.

Member Since: July 24, 2005 Posts: 407 Comments: 19076
788. kmanislander
1:38 AM GMT on April 01, 2008
Hi guys

Can't believe 8 weeks to armchair forecasting !.

How are you all doing ?
Member Since: August 19, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 15687
786. Patrap
1:34 AM GMT on April 01, 2008
Evening JFV..
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 419 Comments: 127371
780. Ivansrvivr
1:04 AM GMT on April 01, 2008
Had the La Nina pattern kicked in unexpectedly last season, the Accuweather forecast may have been right. Nobody's preseason prediction came close to what actually occurred. A preseason forecast is no different than picking the superbowl winner before training camp starts. Find the forecaster that during the preseason accurately predicted the steering patterns and landfalls perfectly for last season and that person can bash Accuweather all day long.
777. Drakoen
12:47 AM GMT on April 01, 2008
776. hurricane23 12:43 AM GMT on April 01, 2008
well in a few days were going to get more ideas from CSU and TSR on what this season my look like.Its there 2nd go at this into this season.


I'm very interested to hear that and especially what they say about the waters of the African coast
Member Since: October 28, 2006 Posts: 57 Comments: 29864
776. hurricane23
12:43 AM GMT on April 01, 2008
well in a few days were going to get more ideas from CSU and TSR on what this season my look like.Its there 2nd go at this into this season.
Member Since: May 14, 2006 Posts: 8 Comments: 13621
775. Drakoen
12:34 AM GMT on April 01, 2008
773. clwstmchasr 12:23 AM GMT on April 01, 2008
Lets not start with the accuweather bashing!Everyone was off last season with there predictions.Personally for me predicting were a tropical cyclone will strike is a complicated matter as there are many factors involved surrounding a particular storm.

Again 2007 was very busy just not for the U.S. once again.Remember there are areas to the south that took it really hard.

I completely agree with you. That why it bugs me that they come on in May/June and tell everyone that Florida (or other places) is at a very "high risk" for a major hurricane.

I personally don't like that anyone predicts the number of storms. I would rather them do their analysis, and state - below, near or above the long term average number of storms.

I like what Dr. M. does with a two week outlook. He can look at current conditions, analyze two week models and come to a sensable prediction.


Of course lol. He has more things to look at to get a more accurate prediction. Their aren't any models that can predict that far ahead with good accuracy, months before the event
Member Since: October 28, 2006 Posts: 57 Comments: 29864
774. Ivansrvivr
12:32 AM GMT on April 01, 2008
CL, STEERING. not numbers. The Bermuda High calls the shots during hurricane season.
772. Patrap
12:09 AM GMT on April 01, 2008
Dainty space truck completes task
By Jonathan Amos
Science reporter, BBC News

Manoeuvre footage

Europe's "Jules Verne" freighter has demonstrated its ability to make extremely fine movements right next to the International Space Station (ISS). Link
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 419 Comments: 127371
771. weatherfromFlorida
12:03 AM GMT on April 01, 2008
770. Patrap 12:00 AM GMT on April 01, 2008 Hide this comment.
The daily morning Lows here in nola are running a full 10 degrees above the morning avg Low.
This morning was 68 for a Low.Avg is 55.

But hey..we all know the Spring is coming earlier in the Northern Hemisphere..as well as a early greening and Extended Growing season.

Ask any Farmer.


That farmers in a Mercury Suit from project Mercury, and its also an X-15 suit.
Seen the movie, and liked it.
Space Program rocks.
Member Since: March 22, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 77
770. Patrap
12:00 AM GMT on April 01, 2008
The daily morning Lows here in nola are running a full 10 degrees above the morning avg Low.
This morning was 68 for a Low.Avg is 55.

But hey..we all know the Spring is coming earlier in the Northern Hemisphere..as well as a early greening and Extended Growing season.

Ask any Farmer.

Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 419 Comments: 127371
768. Patrap
11:52 PM GMT on March 31, 2008
SPC Storm Reports so far today Link
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 419 Comments: 127371
767. Ivansrvivr
11:33 PM GMT on March 31, 2008
WWB, you are exactly right. That is why (in my case) guesses are just guesses. Not meant to be any more than mentioning a possible scenario.
766. Ivansrvivr
11:31 PM GMT on March 31, 2008
the high is there now, but the Nina is fading. As the Nina's effects fade too that high would likely be much closer to normal. The squash effect may occur early but not last into the Cape Verde(Aug-Sept) or W Carrib (Oct-Nov)season.
765. trunkmonkey
11:25 PM GMT on March 31, 2008
I'm glad I'm enjoying this global warming, because if we didn't have it in Indiana, it would be snowing right now, the average high tempuratures is running around 4 degrees below normal. Our normal daily temps are averaging around 50-52,normal is 57.It's cold and rainy, sucks to be us. Heck last year it only rained twice in the month of May. Can't wait to see what the summer will bring.
Member Since: August 18, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 579
764. weathermanwannabe
10:14 PM GMT on March 31, 2008
Every season (for the last several years) has brought several unexpected turns (hyper active year/dust choking in mid-season/sheer rules in 2006/the Felix and Dean "lowriders" last year)....So, as always, it will never be written in stone as to what may actually happen until the season is upon us and we should expect the unexpected..........
Member Since: August 8, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 8712
763. hurricane23
9:56 PM GMT on March 31, 2008
If the high is like it was in 07 the squash will be on were systems will be pushed into the caribbean like last year.Not good news for folks who took it hard last season.
Member Since: May 14, 2006 Posts: 8 Comments: 13621
762. Drakoen
9:54 PM GMT on March 31, 2008
With the waves traveling in the CV season we may see a similar setup to 2007 where the waves have to reach around 50W to really start developing. Also we have to account for the upper level winds which is another main factor. If the CFS prediction is right with the precip in August then the SAL may not be much of a factor.
Member Since: October 28, 2006 Posts: 57 Comments: 29864
761. Ivansrvivr
9:39 PM GMT on March 31, 2008
.5 below avg in the carrib when the avg is mid 80's will not prevent tropical development. The lower anomalies from the Central ATlantic thru the Carribean could cause developing storms to be a bit weaker and more likely to go westward where stronger storms would often recurve earlier. the -.5 anomalies also seem to show a strong bermuda high and resulting tradewinds causing some upwelling.

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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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