If global warming is occurring, why was the winter of 2007-2008 so cold and snowy?

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 1:38 PM GMT on March 14, 2008

Share this Blog
7
+

The planet was much snowier and warmer than usual during the winter of 2007-2008, according to statistics released today by the National Climatic Data Center. Snow cover extent over the Northern Hemisphere during the period December 2007 - February 2008 was the fourth greatest on record, and was the greatest on record for January. Satellite-derived snow cover records extend back to 1967. Some regions of the Middle East, such as Baghdad, Iraq saw their first snow in living memory, and seasonal snowfall records were broken in Wisconsin and a few places in the Northeastern U.S. Surprisingly, the winter also ranked much above average in temperature--it was the 16th warmest December through February period in the 128-year global record. This puts the winter of 2007-2008 in the warmest 13% of all winters. Temperatures this winter were a bit cooler than recent winters because of an ongoing strong La Niña event in the Eastern Pacific Ocean, which has dramatically cooled the ocean surface waters. By one measure (the surface pressure difference between Darwin and Tahiti), February 2008 was the strongest February La Niña event on record. The last time we had a winter this cool was during 2000-2001, which also happened to be the last time we had a major winter La Niña event.


Figure 1. Departure of temperature from average for the winter of 2007-2008. Image credit: National Climatic Data Center.

A normal winter for the U.S.
December 2007 through February 2008 was about average in the contiguous U.S.--the 54th coolest winter on record in the 113 year period of record. The average temperature was 33.2°F (0.6°C), which was 0.2°F (0.1°C) above the 20th Century mean. It was the 18th wettest December-February in the 1895-2008 record. New York experienced its wettest winter on record, and the states of Colorado, Connecticut, Pennsylvania, and Vermont experienced their second-wettest winter on record. Only the South received below normal levels of precipitation, mostly due to a dry winter in Texas.

All time winter snowfall records have already been set in some portions of the Northeast U.S. and Wisconsin. As of March 12, Madison, WI had accumulated 92 inches of snow, smashing the previous seasonal snowfall record of 76.1 inches (193.3 cm) of snow in the winter of 1978-1979. Two locations in the Northeast have set new winter snowfall records, and more records will fall if an average amount of snow falls in March. By the end of February, new snowfall records for the season-to-date were also set in both Telluride and Aspen, Colorado.

An exceptionally warm winter in Northern Europe and Asia, cold in Central Asia
Northern Asia and northern Europe experienced an exceptionally warm winter, with Sweden and Finland recording their warmest winters ever, and Norway, its second warmest. Conversely, Tajikistan recorded its coldest winter in 30 years, and heavy snows in Kazakhstan caused severe flooding when they melted. Snow storms and cold weather in China this winter killed 129 people and did over $21 billion in damage.

Why did we see a cool winter, if global warming is occurring?
It is important to understand the difference between weather and climate. Climate is what you expect; weather is what you get. What we experience in one particular season or year is "weather". Weather has a large variation from year to year, with cool seasons and years mixed in with warms ones. "Climate" is the weather measured on scales of tens of years or longer. One cool winter or year is not an indication that the climate is cooling back to normal. The climate is warming, and unless we see a series of several years of cool conditions, this year's cool winter merely represents a normal fluctuation of the weather. Relatively cool weather is to be expected globally during a strong La Niña event in the Eastern Pacific Ocean, and relatively warm weather is expected during an El Niño event. We shouldn't expect to see record warmth for the globe unless an El Niño event is occurring.

Why did we see record snows this winter, if global warming is occurring?
Beware of global warming skeptics trumpeting record snowfalls this winter as an excuse to doubt that global warming is occurring. One should primarily look at global temperatures on a scale of decades to judge the validity of global warming. Dr. Ricky Rood, who writes our Climate Change blog, put it this way in his current blog, Creeping Onset of Spring and in an earlier blog, Water, water, water:

This year has been very snowy in the northern hemisphere. That it is snowy does not suggest that it is colder. If it gets warmer, it does not mean that we no longer see freezing temperatures in places like Michigan. If it gets warmer there is more water in the atmosphere, and when there is precipitation there will be more precipitation, and if it is below freezing, then that precipitation will be ice and snow. The high mountains near the coast, like the Cascades and the Sierra Nevada would expect more snow. This is also true for the high altitudes parts of Greenland and Antarctica. From a climate point of view it is more important to look at snow cover in the late winter and early spring. Is the snow melting earlier?


Figure 2. Average February arctic sea ice coverage as observed by satellites between 1979 and 2008. Image credit: National Snow and Ice Data Center

Arctic sea ice recovers a bit
It will be interesting to see if this year's heavy Northern Hemisphere snow cover melts earlier than usual, as this will have a big impact on the annual Arctic sea ice melt. We're starting off with more ice surface area in the Arctic than in the past four years--February 2008 Northern Hemisphere sea ice extent was greater than each of the previous four years, thanks to cooler than usual temperatures over much of the Canadian Arctic. However, this was still the fifth lowest ice extent on record for the month of February, and 8% below its extent in 1979 when satellite measurements began, according to the National Snow and Ice Data Center. February was the third straight month that a new monthly minimum Arctic sea ice record was not set, following a string of five months in a row where monthly records were set. The extra sea ice extent will help to reduce the amount of melting this summer, but this effect will probably be overshadowed by the fact that natural wind patterns have forced a large amount of thick, multi-year ice out of the Arctic this winter. This has left much of the sea ice very thin, making it very vulnerable to melting. For the first time on record, the edge of thin first-year ice has pushed beyond the North Pole. IF we get another relatively warm and sunny summer in the Arctic in 2008, we will likely see Arctic sea ice loss surpassing last year's astounding collapse.

Annual WeatherDance contest ready for registration!
Armchair forecasters, now's your chance to shine! WeatherDance, based on teams in the men's and women's NCAA basketball tournaments, allows players to predict which team's city will be hotter or colder on game day in each round of the Big Dance. Beginning March 17, players can make their forecasts at the Weather Dance Web site at: www.weatherdance.org. The site will be updated with cities promptly after NCAA seeding announcements. Team selection occurs March 16 for men and March 17 for women. First round Weather Dance selections must be entered by 11:59 p.m. EST March 19. Players can register now and receive periodic reminders as the game progresses.

"Officially, Weather Dance began as a class project to get students involved in weather forecasting, but we kept it around because it got popular. People think they can do better forecasting than the meteorologists. Well, here's their shot!" said Perry Samson, WeatherDance creator, co-founder of the The Weather Underground, Inc., and Professor in the Department of Atmospheric, Oceanic and Space Sciences at the University of Michigan.

This is the third year for the game. Last year more than 2,000 people played. Most play merely for the thrill, but many science teachers involve their classes as part of meteorology units. The winning teacher will receive an invitation and $500 to join the Texas Tech/University of Michigan Storm Chasing team this spring for a day of tornado chasing. Other winners will receive a Weather Underground umbrella or a copy of the book "Extreme Weather," by Christopher C. Burt.

Jeff Masters

Reader Comments

Comments will take a few seconds to appear.

Post Your Comments

Please sign in to post comments.

or Join

Not only will you be able to leave comments on this blog, but you'll also have the ability to upload and share your photos in our Wunder Photos section.

Display: 0, 50, 100, 200 Sort: Newest First - Order Posted

Viewing: 374 - 324

Page: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9Blog Index

373. TampaSpin
4:02 AM GMT on March 15, 2008
BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED TORNADO WARNING NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA 1100 PM CDT FRI MAR 14 2008
Member Since: September 2, 2007 Posts: 177 Comments: 20430
372. TampaSpin
3:56 AM GMT on March 15, 2008
CNN Atlanta
Member Since: September 2, 2007 Posts: 177 Comments: 20430
370. atmoaggie
3:54 AM GMT on March 15, 2008
Maybe I spoke too soon. Just reported that the Onmi hotel is evacuated.
Member Since: August 16, 2007 Posts: 6 Comments: 12461
369. TampaSpin
3:46 AM GMT on March 15, 2008
This looks really bad......wow
Member Since: September 2, 2007 Posts: 177 Comments: 20430
367. Ivansrvivr
3:51 AM GMT on March 15, 2008
the game was televised on Sun sports net.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
364. atmoaggie
3:35 AM GMT on March 15, 2008
Now just make it 20 times worse, expand it until it takes 3 hours to drive through it at highway speeds, and change the accents and you have NOLA.
Member Since: August 16, 2007 Posts: 6 Comments: 12461
363. HIEXPRESS
11:35 PM EDT on March 14, 2008
362. Ivansrvivr
3:33 AM GMT on March 15, 2008
It looked like a possible near miss or as Patrap said an EF-0. It ripped gaping holes in the top of 1 side of the building either way.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
361. TampaSpin
3:30 AM GMT on March 15, 2008
BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA 1129 PM EDT FRI MAR 14 2008 THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN PEACHTREE CITY HAS ISSUED A * SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR... PUTNAM COUNTY IN CENTRAL GEORGIA SOUTHERN GREENE COUNTY IN EAST CENTRAL GEORGIA HANCOCK COUNTY IN EAST CENTRAL GEORGIA
Member Since: September 2, 2007 Posts: 177 Comments: 20430
360. KoritheMan
3:16 AM GMT on March 15, 2008
Severe weather continues in northern Louisiana:

The National Weather Service in Shreveport has issued a

* Tornado Warning for...
northeastern Jackson Parish in north central Louisiana...
southeastern Lincoln Parish in north central Louisiana...
southern Ouachita Parish in north central Louisiana...
this includes the cities of... West Monroe... Monroe...
Brownsville-Bawcomville...

* until 1030 PM CDT

* at 939 PM CDT... National Weather Service Doppler radar indicated a
severe thunderstorm capable of producing a tornado 19 miles west of
Brownsville-Bawcomville... or about 9 miles east of Ruston... moving
east at 40 mph. Law enforcement in Ruston recently reported a tornado
on the ground
. In addition... this storm will be capable of producing
hail up to the size of golfballs.

* The tornado will be near...
Brownsville-Bawcomville and West Monroe by 1005 PM CDT...
Monroe by 1010 PM CDT...
Richwood by 1015 PM CDT...

The safest place to be during a tornado is in a basement. Get under a
workbench or other piece of sturdy furniture. If no basement is
available... seek shelter on the lowest floor of the building in an
interior hallway or room such as a closet. Use blankets or pillows to
cover your body and always stay away from windows.

If in Mobile homes or vehicles... evacuate them and get inside a
substantial shelter. If no shelter is available... lie flat in the
nearest ditch or other low spot and cover your head with your hands.

A Tornado Watch remains in effect until 300 am CDT Saturday morning
for southwestern Arkansas and northwestern Louisiana and northeast
Texas.

Lat... Lon 3246 9263 3258 9258 3250 9193 3229 9204
3228 9230
time... Mot... loc 0244z 283deg 38kt 3249 9243
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
359. atmoaggie
3:09 AM GMT on March 15, 2008
Obviously something happened, but it doesn't sound quite like the last time a nado hit a urban center.

In Fort Worth, a high rise had to be demolished after a nado twisted the entire bulding's structure. And heavily damaged most buildings downtown. Link

It was a 37 story Bank One tower that had to be demolished.
Member Since: August 16, 2007 Posts: 6 Comments: 12461
358. KoritheMan
3:13 AM GMT on March 15, 2008
That'd have been cool to see on TV. I regret not watching it now.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
357. Ivansrvivr
3:12 AM GMT on March 15, 2008
Patrap, apparently the SEC sanctioning body agrees with you since the game resumed play with several thousand in attendance.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
356. Patrap
10:08 PM CDT on March 14, 2008
The Stadium is a Good Place. Luckily it was a EF-0 most likely due to the minimal damage.
But the NWS will have to send a team in. Maybe ,maybe not.

Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 414 Comments: 125572
355. Ivansrvivr
3:03 AM GMT on March 15, 2008
Such a strong La Nina event skews any climatic data in reference to global warming. The fact is we need another 2 or 3 hundred years of data for "Global Warming" to be proven or disproven. The environment and it's need for human intervention by cleaning up pollution goes far beyond just the issue of global warming. Looking at the reports of massive pollution coming out of China before the 2010 olympics have been eye opening for alot of people. While America has it's environmental issues, they are miniscule compared to China's massive pollution problems.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
354. Ivansrvivr
3:01 AM GMT on March 15, 2008
I was watching the game on Sun channel.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
353. Ivansrvivr
2:57 AM GMT on March 15, 2008
Actually, action was taken as the storm approached. Nobody was hurt despite falling debris. Now those in charge feel that the safest place for the players and fans is in the building so play was resumed.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
351. Patrap
9:55 PM CDT on March 14, 2008
Someone Send the Georgia Dome Operator a NOAA Radio..

Or maybe find some room in that Budget for a Wuban on duty..
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 414 Comments: 125572
350. Michfan
2:53 AM GMT on March 15, 2008


ATLANTA, Georgia (CNN) -- A possible tornado swept through downtown Atlanta on Friday night, disrupting a college basketball game and damaging the building that houses CNN.

There were no immediate reports of injuries.

The National Weather Service had issued a tornado warning for the area, in effect until 10 p.m. The storm came through at about 9:45 p.m.

Inside CNN Center, water poured through damage in the ceiling into the building's atrium. Glass shattered, and parts of the building filled with dust.

Next door at the Georgia Dome, the SEC conference basketball game between Alabama and Mississippi State was halted. The storm visibly rippled the ceiling of the dome and caused some damage, video of the arena showed. Scaffolding holding the facility's scoreboard swayed 15 minutes after the storm hit.

Outside, construction cones and newspaper boxes were shoved into the street.
Member Since: September 7, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 1615
349. Ivansrvivr
2:50 AM GMT on March 15, 2008
A tornado(apparent) hit the Ga dome during the Bama-Miss st game. Play was suspended for an hour while cleanup took place. Play has now resumed, though now the building has sustained damage.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
348. Michfan
2:50 AM GMT on March 15, 2008


Nice classic picture of a vortex signature. using the velocities. Notice the blue with the dark brown/red directly opposite of it.
Member Since: September 7, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 1615
347. Michfan
2:48 AM GMT on March 15, 2008
The National Weather Service in Shreveport has issued a

* Tornado Warning for...
northeastern Jackson Parish in north central Louisiana...
southeastern Lincoln Parish in north central Louisiana...
southern Ouachita Parish in north central Louisiana...
this includes the cities of... West Monroe... Monroe...
Brownsville-Bawcomville...

* until 1030 PM CDT

* at 939 PM CDT... National Weather Service Doppler radar indicated a
severe thunderstorm capable of producing a tornado 19 miles west of
Brownsville-Bawcomville... or about 9 miles east of Ruston... moving
east at 40 mph. Law enforcement in Ruston recently reported a tornado
on the ground. In addition... this storm will be capable of producing
hail up to the size of golfballs.

* The tornado will be near...
Brownsville-Bawcomville and West Monroe by 1005 PM CDT...
Monroe by 1010 PM CDT...
Richwood by 1015 PM CDT...
Member Since: September 7, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 1615
346. Patrap
9:49 PM CDT on March 14, 2008
Severe Thunderstorm Warning - Douglas, Fulton until 11:15 p.m.
The National Weather Service has issued a Severe Thunderstorm Warning for Douglas and Fulton counties until 11:15 p.m.

At 10:26 p.m., National Weather Service Doppler radar indicated a severe thunderstorm capable of producing nickel sized hail, and damaging winds up to 60 mph. This storm was located near Douglasville, moving east at 35 mph.

Other locations in the warning include but are not limited to Douglasville, Midway, Chapel Hill, Lithia Springs, Sweetwater Creek State Park, Union City, East Point, College Park, Turner Field and Hapeville.

Doppler radar has indicated rotation within this storm. Although current data does not indicate the existence of a tornado, a tornado may still develop. If a tornado is spotted, act quickly and move to a place of safety inside a sturdy structure, such as a basement or small interior room.
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 414 Comments: 125572
345. Michfan
2:43 AM GMT on March 15, 2008
Follow the rightmost cell. Thats the one that moved through Atlanta:

Member Since: September 7, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 1615
344. scwindsaloft
9:43 PM EST on March 14, 2008
TVS NW of atlanta
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
343. Michfan
2:43 AM GMT on March 15, 2008
Yeah they just showed the damage outside the dome on the news. It looks pretty likely.
Member Since: September 7, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 1615
341. Michfan
2:38 AM GMT on March 15, 2008
Another:

Tornado Warning

Statement as of 9:32 PM CDT on March 14, 2008

... A Tornado Warning remains in effect until 945 PM CDT for north
central Jackson and southern Lincoln parishes...

At 929 PM CDT... local law enforcement reported a tornado just to the
west of Ruston... moving southeast at 35 mph. In addition... this
storm has a history of producing hail up to the size of golfballs.
Member Since: September 7, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 1615
340. Michfan
2:35 AM GMT on March 15, 2008
Damn look at some of the cloudtops and velocities on these storms. One is topping out at 42,000 ft with a hail size of 2.75 in.

Link
Member Since: September 7, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 1615
339. Patrap
9:33 PM CDT on March 14, 2008
NWS Atlanta Radar Link
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 414 Comments: 125572
338. Patrap
9:31 PM CDT on March 14, 2008
LA Lakers 98
at
New Orleans Hornets 108
Final
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 414 Comments: 125572
337. Michfan
2:30 AM GMT on March 15, 2008


and

Member Since: September 7, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 1615
336. Michfan
2:27 AM GMT on March 15, 2008
Things are starting to blow up:

Tornado Warning

Statement as of 10:12 PM EDT on March 14, 2008

The National Weather Service in Peachtree City has issued a

* Tornado Warning for...
Newton County in north central Georgia
Rockdale County in north central Georgia

* until 1045 PM EDT

* at 1008 PM EDT... National Weather Service Doppler radar indicated a
severe thunderstorm with strong rotation capable of producing a
tornado about 4 miles south of Lithonia... moving southeast at 35 mph.

* Other locations in the warning include but are not limited to
Conyers... Milstead... Almon... Porterdale... Oxford... Covington and
Stewart.

Take cover now! Tornadoes at night are extremely dangerous. Do not
wait until you see or hear it coming... it may be too late.

If you see wind damage... large hail or significant flooding... wait
until after the storm has passed... and then call the National Weather
Service toll free at 1 8 6 6 7 6 3 4 4 6 6.

The National Weather Service in Jackson has issued a

* Tornado Warning for...
northeastern Ashley County in southeast Arkansas...
this includes the city of Hamburg...
west central Chicot County in southeast Arkansas...

* until 1015 PM CDT

* at 927 PM CDT... National Weather Service meteorologists detected a
severe thunderstorm capable of producing a tornado near Hamburg...
moving northeast at 25 mph.

* The tornado will be near...
Snyder by 950 PM CDT...
8 miles northwest of Portland by 955 PM CDT...
Montrose by 1000 PM CDT...

... A Tornado Warning remains in effect until 930 PM CDT for Ashley
County...

At 921 PM CDT... National Weather Service meteorologists continue to
track a severe thunderstorm capable of producing a tornado. This
tornado was located near Hamburg... moving northeast at 35 mph.

In addition to the tornado... this storm is capable of producing
destructive golfball to baseball sized hail and straight line winds
of 70 mph.

The safest place to be during a tornado is in a basement. Get under a
workbench or other piece of sturdy furniture. If no basement is
available... seek shelter on the lowest floor of the building in an
interior hallway or room such as a closet. Use blankets or pillows to
cover your body and always stay away from windows.

Statement as of 8:30 PM CDT on March 14, 2008

... Severe thunderstorms likely over southeast Arkansas and northeast
Louisiana this evening...

A strong thunderstorm capable of producing pea to dime size hail was
located 17 miles west of Crossett at 830 PM CDT... moving east at 25
mph.

This storm is intensifying and could become severe rapidly.

Several other severe thunderstorms... including storms capable of
producing hail larger than golfballs... damaging winds... and possible
tornadoes... were occurring over parts of northern Louisiana and
southern Arkansas. These storms will also likely affect southeast
Arkansas and northeast Louisiana tonight.

People in Ashley... Chicot... Morehouse and West Carroll parishes...
including the cities of Crossett... Hamburg... North Crossett... West
Crossett and Wilmot... should monitor this storm closely.

A Tornado Watch is in effect for the area until 3 am CDT.
Member Since: September 7, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 1615
335. sebastianjer
10:19 PM EDT on March 14, 2008
Nothing JFL, I'm glad you are open minded about it.

JER
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
333. sebastianjer
10:07 PM EDT on March 14, 2008
Hey atmoaggie,
just turned it on, it's still in delay, they were interviewing a cameraman that was up there when it happened, freaky. They're getting ready to start again.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
332. Michfan
2:10 AM GMT on March 15, 2008


I can see why.
Member Since: September 7, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 1615
331. atmoaggie
2:04 AM GMT on March 15, 2008
From the Birmingham News:
"The score is Mississippi State 64, Alabama 61 with 2:11 left in overtime. But that's not what anybody is thinking about.

The Georgia Dome is shaking. The TV monitors are swaying, the fans are scattering, and the insulation is coming down onto the court. As I said, rain delay. Sorta scary. The teams are back in the locker room, waiting this out.

Meanwhile the National Weather Service is reporting severe weather in downtown Atlanta, conditions that created this delay. Crazy, right? It's almost like something hit the roof and everything started moving. There is this weird murmur in the air, with everyone just kind of milling around.

Actually, not a ton of fans appear to be leaving. Good game, I guess. The announcer keeps saying storms are circling in Atlanta."
Member Since: August 16, 2007 Posts: 6 Comments: 12461
330. atmoaggie
2:01 AM GMT on March 15, 2008
how often does weather interrupt play in a basketball game? The SEC tourney is on hold. Severe straightline winds or a nado made the roof flex about a good bit in the Georgia Dome, knocking some debris loose and making items hanging from the roof sway about.

You could even hear the "freight train" through the TV
Member Since: August 16, 2007 Posts: 6 Comments: 12461
329. sebastianjer
9:58 PM EDT on March 14, 2008
This one is for you JFLORIDA, don't get too mad at me.

This is from the ACRIM site of the Jet Propulsion Laboratory of Goddard Space Studies NASA. Please note the highlighted areas.
===============================================================
The Earth’s weather and climate regime is determined by the total solar irradiance and its interactions with the Earth’s atmosphere, oceans and landmasses. Evidence from both 29 years of direct satellite monitoring and historical proxy data leaves no doubt that solar radiation is a variable phenomenon. Subtle variations of TSI resulting from periodic changes in the Earth's orbit (Milankovich cycles: ~20, 40 and 100 Kyrs) cause climate change ranging from major ice ages to the present inter-glacial, clearly demonstrating the dominance of TSI in climate change on long timescales. TSI monitoring, cosmogenic isotope analyses and correlative climate data indicate that variations of the TSI have been a significant climate forcing during the current inter-glacial period (the last ~ 10 Kyrs.). Phenomenological analyses of TSI monitoring results during the past (nearly) three decades, TSI proxies during the past 400 years and the records of surface temperature show that TSI variation has been the dominant forcing for climate change during the industrial era. The periodic character of the TSI record indicates that solar forcing of climate change will likely be the dominant and variable contributor to climate change in the future.

A series of Active Cavity Radiometers (ACRs), a new generation of sensors with the precision required for compiling a long term TSI database for climate, have been developed at the Jet Propulsion Laboratory (JPL) of the California Institute of Technology. Their use in a series of Active Cavity Radiometer Irradiance Monitor (ACRIM) space flight experiments has provided a precise and traceable component of the TSI database during nearly 90 % of its 29 year history. The ACRIM Science Team, directed by the ACRIM Principal Investigator, Dr. Richard C. Willson, moved the Science Team to Columbia University in 1995. The ACRIM Instrument Team, directed by Roger Helizon, continues to operate the ACRIM flight and ground telemetry instrumentation at JPL.

The contiguous TSI database extends from late 1978 to the present, covering more than two sunspot cycles (one solar magnetic activity cycle). It is comprised of the observations of seven independent satellite experiments: Nimbus7/ERB1, SMM/ACRIM12, ERBS/ERBE3, UARS/ACRIM24, SOHO/VIRGO5, ACRIMSAT/ACRIM36 and SORCE/TIM7. A composite database combining these results using overlapping in-flight comparisons has begun to provide new insights into both solar physics and climate change...
.
====================================================
This is from a Dec 2007 presentation by the ACRIM team again please note highlighted portions

The relative significance of natural and anthropogenic climate forcing has yet to be determined
Climate response to TSI variability is not well understood
Climate models of TSI forcing have large uncertainties
The TSI variability database on climate time scales (> decades) has just begun
TSI variation has been a significant forcing for climate change during the industrial era
Phenomenological analysis indicates ~ 50 % of global warming caused by TSI increase

Solar activity indices and Earth surface temperature anomalies correlate with TSI variability
Historical evidence indicates a direct relationship between climate change and TSI variation
Sustained TSI decreases ~ 0.25 % were likely causes of the ‘little ice age’ (~1450 –1850)
A comparable TSI increase was the likely cause of the medieval warm optimum (~1100 -1400)
A climate TSI record must have ~500 ppm/century resolution to detect this signal

==========================================================

Now please look at the members of the team LOL

Remember when I was laughing at the left hand of the UN not knowing what the right hand was doing. Well at NASA they have opposing views of the same issue with one of the main proponents of one side on both sides of the issue, lol

Member Since: Posts: Comments:
328. lindenii
8:56 PM EST on March 14, 2008
JER,

That is what I was referring with my buddy "joules".

Talk about cutting to the chase with that one. Pielke nailed it.

Now all we have to do is wait.

SickOfDumbQuestions,

Way back in the late '50s and early '60s, Orlando was a sleepy town of around 55,000. Every summer the clouds would roll in from Tampa and you could expect rain about 2 pm every afternoon. As Orlando got bigger and the buldings and blacktop grew, a strange thing happened. Every summer the clouds would roll in from Tampa, as usual, only now the clouds would actually split up an go around the downtown area leaving us with less rain. We figured it was all the heat from the building and blacktop. Looks like we were right after all.

Another molecule that is being ignored is the water molecule. Over time, we will all come to accept that the contribution of water vapor to the global weather is far greater than currently realized. It truly is a greenhouse contributor. Think about it. When it is hot and muggy...is it because of all the water vapor or because of co2 vapor? Obviously it is the water vapor and its ability carry a great deal of energy in its vapor state. Most likely that is because of the valences of the molecule , at least that is what I vaguely remember from chemistry class so many years ago.

CO2 does not gather into a vapor, it stays in a gas and as a result cannot gather latent heat nearly as easily as water.
327. Michfan
1:28 AM GMT on March 15, 2008
320. KoritheMan 1:26 AM GMT on March 15, 2008 Hide this comment.
@ #318:

Can you say for SURE that humans aren't causing the planet to warm up even a tiny bit? I agree that man has an ego, but it's not illogical to think that we might be warming up the planet some. My personal belief on global warming is that it is a natural cycle that will eventually go away. However, I believe that we are speeding up the warming because of CO2 emissions and the like. Just my take.


Thats pretty much how i picture it.
Member Since: September 7, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 1615
325. SickOfDumbQuestions
1:34 AM GMT on March 15, 2008
If you go into a lab and set up a test of air, one with 180ppm and one with 379ppm, what you will find is that the heat potential of the air has increased less that 1/100th a degree C.... so how can a change of 1 degree C be explained ONLY by co2 in the air?? It CANNOT... thats what I'm trying to say.... its IMPOSSIBLE for that change of co2 be the cause of more than 1/100th a degree C...

Member Since: Posts: Comments:

Viewing: 374 - 324

Page: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9Blog Index

Top of Page

About JeffMasters

Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.