Lufthansa jet narrowly avoids crashing in German windstorm

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 6:39 PM GMT on March 05, 2008

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A Lufthansa Airbus A320 with 137 people on board nearly crashed at the Hamburg, Germany airport on Saturday, March 1, as the pilot struggled to land the airplane during high winds kicked up by winter storm "Emma". If you don't have a fear of flying, take at look at the remarkable video an amateur photographer captured of the landing. It's been uploaded to LiveLeak.com and YouTube. As seen in the still images captured from the video (Figure 1), the pilot attempted to land the aircraft with a strong crosswind blowing from right to left. The crosswind is so strong that the drift angle of the aircraft (the difference between where the nose is pointed and the actual track of the airplane along the runway) is about 20 degrees. As the pilot touches the wheels down, he kicks the rudder to straighten the airplane out, and at that moment, a strong gust of wind lifts up the right wing, pushing the left wingtip of the aircraft into the runway. The pilot is skillful and lucky enough to avoid having the airplane cartwheel down the runway and explode, and aborts the landing attempt. You can see the blast of the engines kick up a cloud of dust on the left side of the runway as he goes to full throttle for a "go around" (thanks to Jeff Weber of UNIDATA for making the correct analysis of this dust cloud). The plane landed safely on its second attempt. Do you think the passengers were praying during that second landing? I do! Only minor damage was done to the left wingtip, and the plane was back in service by the next day.


Figure 1. Still photo of the Lufthansa jet (left) as it approached the runway. Note sharp angle between the direction the airplane's nose is pointed, and the track it is taking along the length of the runway. Strong winds of 40 mph gusting to 63 mph were observed at the airport that afternoon. Right photo: the left wingtip of the jet scrapes the runway as a big gust of wind hits. Image credit: LiveLeak.com.

The weather that led to the near disaster
The initial press reports indicated that a wind gust of 155 mph hit the aircraft as it tried to land. That sounded rather dubious to me, so I took a closer look at the weather conditions that day. The only way a wind gust of that magnitude could have been generated would be from a powerful microburst flowing out from the base of a severe thunderstorm. The world record strongest thunderstorm microburst occurred on August 1, 1983, when winds of 149.5 mph were clocked at Andrews Air Force Base near Washington D.C., just five minutes after President Reagan landed there aboard Air Force 1. So, a 155 mph wind gust is possible, but it would be a new world record.


Figure 2. Visible satellite image from 10:20 GMT Saturday March 1 2008. Winter storm "Emma", a 960 mb low pressure centered north of Hamburg over Norway, has pushed a cold front through Germany. A strong northwest to west-northwest flow of air coming off the North Sea (red arrows) brought sustained winds of 36 mph, gusting to 56 mph, to Hamburg, Germany. Image credit: University of Bern, Switzerland.

Were there severe thunderstorms near Hamburg on March 1 that could have generated such a wind gust? A powerful low pressure system (Emma) with a central pressure of 960 mb passed to the north of Hamburg, Germany that morning, dragging a strong cold front through in the late morning (Figure 2). After cold frontal passage, the wunderground history page for Hamburg at 12:50 GMT, five minutes before the time of the incident, shows sustained winds of 35 mph, gusting to 56 mph. A temporary wind reading of 40 mph, gusting to 63 mph, also occurred. The temperature was about 45°F, with occasional rain. This is classic post-cold front weather, and is not the sort of environment where severe thunderstorms with strong microbursts occur. Later press reports corrected the 155 mph wind gust, reducing it to 56 mph. Apparently, the aircraft's landing speed was 155 mph. In any case, the plane was operating very near to the maximum crosswinds an Airbus A320 is permitted to land in--38 mph, gusting to 44 mph. There are questions whether air traffic control should have used that runway for landings, and whether or not the pilot should have attempted a landing in those conditions. There is an interesting discussion at the LiveATC.net discussion forum where some pilots weight in on the near-disaster.

Winter storm Emma did considerable damage across Germany. Six people died in weather-related automobile accidents, power was cut to 150,000 homes, and high winds ripped the roof off of a school in Hesse. In neighboring countries, 260 buildings lost their roofs in Poland, flooding collapsed a bridge in Romania, and in the Czech Republic, 92,000 people (about 10 percent of the population) lost power.

Jeff Masters

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953. Weather456
11:40 AM ADT on March 09, 2008
....SYNOPSIS....

GULF OF MEXICO/NORTHWEST ATLANTIC OCEAN WEST OF 50W....

Weak surface ridging has established itself over the Southern United States and Gulf of Mexico following the passage of a cold frontal boundary. QuikSCAT and marine reports showed this feature is producing easterly flow between 10-20 knots and 3-7 ft easterly swells (South Padre Island Webcam). Meanwhile, scattered low clouds....remnant moisture...are seen rotating within this flow over much of the Gulf. Fair weather is seen elsewhere over Mexico and Southern United States.

A well define frontal band extends from the Caribbean, across Cuba and the Northern Bahamas and into the Western Atlantic through 25N/75W 30N/75W. Broken to overcast low clouds and light-moderate precipitation can be expected within 120 nmi of the front south of 25N...and within 78 nmi north of 25N. A rather deep ridging is ahead of the front with mid-upper dry air supporting surface partly cloudy to fair weather.

CENTRAL AMERICA AND THE CARIBBEAN REGION....

The big weather producer across the region is a cold front that is generating scattered to overcast cloudiness and possible showers over the Northwest Caribbean from the Gulf of Honduras/Belize to Western Cuba and the Northern Bahamas.

Meanwhile, the upper level pattern across the region consist of a large 250 hpa ridge centered near 12N/74W and a trough that dips into the Eastern Caribbean near Guadeloupe and extends to the ABC Islands (Aruba, Bonaire, Curacao). Abundant dry/stable air aloft...especially over the Eastern Caribbean...is resulting in moderate to strong subsidence and fair weather dominates most of the basin with the exception of the northwestern corner. The weather will be further modified by patches of stratocumulus clouds that are invading the region south of the ridge. Trades continue to blow around 20 knots...increasing to 30 knots over the Southwest Caribbean. The other wind maxima exist over the Northwest Caribbean where a surge of northerlies is invading the area behind the front. Seas will be generally 6-7 ft, with 10-11 ft seas over the Southwest Caribbean and Yucatan Channel. Small craft should exercise caution.

by W456

Grand Anse Beach, Grenada

Member Since: July 24, 2005 Posts: 407 Comments: 19076
952. lindenii
2:50 PM GMT on March 09, 2008
934. BahaHurican 3:49 AM GMT on March 09, 2008.
...on the December forecast: I pulled this quote from the forecast paper.

One learns more about how the global climate system functions by making real-time public forecasts that have your name on them. This demonstrates your personal commitment to your seasonal forecast methodology and your belief that your current forecast is able to beat climatology. You always learn more when your seasonal forecast busts than when it verifies. Busted forecasts drive us to explain the reasons for the failure and likely lead to enhanced skill in future years.

The bold statement explains why I supported Gray et al when people were denigrating these forecasts in December. It's a tedious method, surely, yet it enables some advancements in the understanding and forecasting of tropical systems to be made. If no one makes an effort to forecast based on the scientific method, we are unlikely to get any closer to understanding what drives our weather.

****************

I don't believe that it is the forcasts per se that are being decried. It is the blatant bias, especially on the part of the global warming alarmists which drives their forcasts that is in serious question. The majority of participates to this blog are not in that group.

Climate change is nothing more than another way to say weather. Global warming and global cooling are pieces of the puzzle that is weather.

According to NASA, over a million earths would fit inside the sun; yet, little or no comments are made concerning the presence of or absence of sunspots.

Why is that important? Because sunspots coincide with substantially more energy output by the sun. More energy...more heat here on earth...hmmm could that be a major contributor to global warming? Hmmmmmm.

Likewise, it is all over the news today that snowfall in areas of the US has exceeded 98 years records. Interesting fact...sunspots are not present on the sun, as expected due to the cylical nature of sunspot activity. The absence of sunspots coincide with a signifcant reduction of energy from the sun. Less energy from the sun...snowfall records being broken? Hmmmm Could it be Global cooling??

Even Gray himself admitted that certain relationship in weather patterns that had worked for over 40 years had to be abandoned because, for some reason, they were no longer dependable.

Hindcasting is a flawed concept whenever we attempt to use our newfangled, much more sensitive equipment and use current observations to make sense of the past. It will take at least twenty more years of quiet data collection and interpretation before any sense can be made of the new data stream being genereated by said equipment.

Question...Why hasn't Jeff Masters Phd found the time to comment on the report by NOAA scientists concerning the mis-interpretation of hurricane damages? One reason might be the fact that a hurricane back in the twenties was actually much more damaging than anything in this century to date.

Having a predisposition toward any one viewpoint brings with it the impression that a person will tend to see only those things that confirm a taken position and minimize those things that do not.

I admit to my bias. Thing is, my bias doesn't carry with it the hysteria that man is responsible for any variation in weather patterns and that carbon credits and other foolish contrivances are a viable solution.

Conserving resources is a wonderful concept and has nothing to do with weather patterns. I have practiced GREEN since the early seventies.



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951. PaulBedfordUK
2:37 PM GMT on March 09, 2008
We have soem US visitors arriving at Heathrow tomorrow,Monday. Think they might do the crossing in about 2 hrs with this jet stream. I expect to see some ashen faces at the business meeetings, assuming that is that the 777 can maintain power to its engines on final approach !
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950. Weather456
11:25 AM ADT on March 09, 2008
UK Storm system

Member Since: July 24, 2005 Posts: 407 Comments: 19076
949. Patrap
9:36 AM CDT on March 09, 2008
UK Severe Warnings Map: Link

The Met Office continues to expect an intense low pressure system to move east across the UK during Monday, bringing severe gales and potentially damaging gusts across some areas, more particularly the west and south of England and Wales. Southerly winds are expected to strengthen during the early hours of Monday to give severe gales for a time, coinciding with the morning rush hour in some areas. An additional swathe of severe westerly gales will follow through the morning and afternoon, principally affecting southwest England and the south coast of England. Gusts of 60 to 70 mph are likely with the possibility of 80 mph gusts on exposed coasts and hills. Disruption to transport and power supplies is possible and there may be damage to buildings and trees. In addition high waves and flooding may affect coastal areas in the south. This warning is likely to be superseded by FLASH messages.

Issued at: 1110 Sun 9 Mar
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 426 Comments: 129089
948. TerraNova
2:29 PM GMT on March 09, 2008
Is La Nina forecast to weaken? The last time I checked the ENSO meter on NoaaWatch, ocean temperature departures were at -1.5.
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947. Patrap
9:35 AM CDT on March 09, 2008
Europe: Infrared satellite animation
Link
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 426 Comments: 129089
946. PaulBedfordUK
2:06 PM GMT on March 09, 2008
http://www.bbc.co.uk/weather/5day.shtml?world=0314

For Bedford location in UK, the BBC forecast is not too exciting.....
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945. Finnmet
1:49 PM GMT on March 09, 2008
the extratropical cyclone has a name:Johanna,and GBR it's on red alert.They forecast winds over 110mph(cat.3),floods and high waves for coastal areas.Now the pressure is 965mb but tonight it's expected a rapid deepening and the pressure could fall <940mb!.If somebody knows the reasons for this intensification...please tell us.
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944. Weather456
9:24 AM ADT on March 09, 2008
Oh and Weather456, that is good news. meaning less activity in the ePac! Less devastation in Mexico.

Yes that is true. But Mexico also has a Caribbean and Gulf of Mexico side.
Member Since: July 24, 2005 Posts: 407 Comments: 19076
943. davidw221
10:43 AM GMT on March 09, 2008
i'm just a weather watcher in here, could someone post when el nina is getting weaker? thanks,
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942. PaulBedfordUK
10:09 AM GMT on March 09, 2008
Weather forecasters here in UK are going orgasmic about the approaching weather system, it coincides with a spring tide so localised coastal flooding and structural damage are the worries. Will let you know what happens but forecasters have taken a cry-wolf/blame avoidance attitude since 1987 caught them out big time.Incidentally, re Hamburg plane incident, to a 90mph wind here would be the news of the century: 155 mph, no way.
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941. KoritheMan
9:10 AM GMT on March 09, 2008
Wait and see process this upcoming year. Ugly list of names this year for the most part...which is kind of good. They used a lot of nice names in 05...and many of them turned out to be strong hurricanes which is kinda darned lol.

Naming has no correlation whatsoever to a storm being bad. Even the fact that Ivan is always bad when named is just coincidence. Still, it's fun to speculate I guess.

Oh and Weather456, that is good news. meaning less activity in the ePac! Less devastation in Mexico.

That's La Nina for you.
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940. Altestic
8:58 AM GMT on March 09, 2008
Wait and see process this upcoming year. Ugly list of names this year for the most part...which is kind of good. They used a lot of nice names in 05...and many of them turned out to be strong hurricanes which is kinda darned lol.

Oh and Weather456, that is good news. meaning less activity in the ePac! Less devastation in Mexico.

939. KoritheMan
5:45 AM GMT on March 09, 2008
The pressure is forecast to fall to ~935mb.

Wow.... I hope those folks are sufficiently prepared for a storm like that. o.o
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938. Skyepony (Mod)
5:13 AM GMT on March 09, 2008
Ireland & Britian are about to be hit by the worst storm they've seen since 1884. The pressure is forecast to fall to ~935mb.

Looked all gloom & doom by the gfs
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937. HIEXPRESS
11:15 PM EST on March 08, 2008
Hey Baha.
The wind lied down here just as fast as it came up yesterday. Great for running today - running into 25kt is like climbing a hill (which we don't have) & the 10 miles the other way is all downhill. I know its unsafe, but if a race was run during a hurricane passage, you could keep a tailwind both out & back. GN
Member Since: October 13, 2005 Posts: 4 Comments: 2156
936. BahaHurican
11:05 PM EST on March 08, 2008


Here is the frontal passage through Nassau.

As u can tell, the source is the Canadian Weather Office . . .LOL
Member Since: October 25, 2005 Posts: 19 Comments: 22561
935. HIEXPRESS
10:48 PM EST on March 08, 2008
931 Patrap 10:05

Strange to see a spacecraft liftoff that I can't look out the window & see. Thanks Pat.
Member Since: October 13, 2005 Posts: 4 Comments: 2156
934. BahaHurican
10:48 PM EST on March 08, 2008
Evening everybody.

First, the front went through here about 2 p.m today. It rained, fairly hard, I admit, for about, oh, five or 10 minutes. By 3 p. m. the sun was out again. The build up was pretty dramatic, though.

Second, on the December forecast: I pulled this quote from the forecast paper.

One learns more about how the global climate system functions by making real-time public forecasts that have your name on them. This demonstrates your personal commitment to your seasonal forecast methodology and your belief that your current forecast is able to beat climatology. You always learn more when your seasonal forecast busts than when it verifies. Busted forecasts drive us to explain the reasons for the failure and likely lead to enhanced skill in future years.

The bold statement explains why I supported Gray et al when people were denigrating these forecasts in December. It's a tedious method, surely, yet it enables some advancements in the understanding and forecasting of tropical systems to be made. If no one makes an effort to forecast based on the scientific method, we are unlikely to get any closer to understanding what drives our weather.
Member Since: October 25, 2005 Posts: 19 Comments: 22561
932. Ivansrvivr
3:00 AM GMT on March 09, 2008
the abnormally strong Bermuda high is responsible for all the atlantic anomalies. The cooler parts are upwelling from stronger than normal tradewinds in the central Atlantic. By the time those winds are nearing Florida they are making the clockwise northwest then northerly turn. The southerly flow is also being drawn off S.America. While the stronger than average winds are having a cooling effect on the Carrib, those winds ase so warm they are counteracting whatever effect the upwelling would have over the Gulf Stream. (the water upwelled in the gulf stream warmer than the water at the surface anyway) combine the upwelling of warmer subsurface waters, and the very warm southerly wind that has been predominant here and you get an unusually warm Gulf Stream. Often when La Nina weakens, the eastern seaboard gets a bad hurricane season. The evidence is mounting for just such a scenario judging by the SSTs and the strength of the Bermuda High.
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931. Patrap
9:05 PM CST on March 08, 2008
The Live Video feed for the Launch of the ESA Jules Verne ATV is under way..The Ariane 5 is fueled and ready for Launch.Link

The ATV is a automated transfer resupply vehicle that will service the International Space Station after a month long check out on orbit,..Link
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 426 Comments: 129089
930. moonlightcowboy
2:29 AM GMT on March 09, 2008
Is there a hole in the universe? - complete article.

In August 2007, scientists from the University of Minnesota published an astonishing finding in the Astrophysical Journal. The universe, they declared, had a hole in it -- a hole far bigger than anything scientists have ever seen or expected. This "hole" spans almost one billion light years and is six to 10 billion light years from Earth, in the Eridanus constellation [source: Daily Tech]. (For reference, one light year measures about six trillion miles.)
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929. HadesGodWyvern (Mod)
2:04 AM GMT on March 09, 2008
Dec 7th 2007 issue of 2008 Hurricane Prediction

this is the last issue that I've seen.. you might have to wait until May for an update.
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928. pbeachbaby
1:55 AM GMT on March 09, 2008
I heard the 2008 prediction for hurricane season is out -true? if so what is it
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927. surfmom
1:50 AM GMT on March 09, 2008
It was a day for the men, surf was big, rough, disorganized, fun if you could handle the weight of the water. Amazing to see the Gulf carry on like this. Hurricane water - only cold....relatively....68 degrees. The wind was relentless. Would have blown me and my board off the beach. Waiting for the wind to lie down and the waves to get glassy. Gnight
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926. HadesGodWyvern (Mod)
12:37 AM GMT on March 09, 2008
At 0:00 AM UTC, Moderate Tropical Storm 13R [994 hPa] (NONAME) located near 13.5S 85.0E has 10 minute sustained winds of 35 knots with gusts up to 50 knots. The storm is reported moving southwest at 8 knots.

Dvorak Intensity: T3.0/3.0/D0.5

Gale-Force Winds within the center

Near Gale-Force Winds within 50 NM from the center extending up to 185 NM in the southwestern quadrant and up to 100 NM in the northwestern quadrant

Forecast and Intensity
======================
12 HRS: 14.5S 82.9E - 45 knots (Moderate Tropical Storm)
24 HRS: 15.8S 79.4E - 55 knots (Severe Tropical Storm)
48 HRS: 22.8S 78.8E - 65 knots (Tropical Cyclone)

Additional Information
======================
Cloudy pattern has organized but the system still undergoes an easterly wind shear, and the center is located under the eastern edge of deep convection. This system should globally track on the northern then western edge of a strong and stationary upper level subtropical ridge. Available dynamic aids are in good agreement with the forecast scenario.
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925. Weather456
8:34 PM AST on March 08, 2008
This should be its name...."Kamba"
Member Since: July 24, 2005 Posts: 407 Comments: 19076
924. HadesGodWyvern (Mod)
12:32 AM GMT on March 09, 2008
They don't know what to name it? LOL
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923. HadesGodWyvern (Mod)
12:31 AM GMT on March 09, 2008
Moderate Tropical Storm THIRTEEN (NONAME)
13.5S 85.0E - 35 knots 994 hPa
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922. Weather456
7:10 PM AST on March 08, 2008
919. MichaelSTL 6:35 PM AST on March 08, 2008
I cannot explain the reason for above average temperatures of the Gulf and Gulf Stream.

Could that be from the trade winds forcing warm water westwards into the Gulf and thus Gulf Stream (I think stronger trades would mean a stronger Gulf Stream since the current first flows westwards through the Caribbean, before looping through the Gulf and up the East Coast; this would also mean positive anomalies since the water further north is normally cooler and increased flow would push warm water further north)? Also, it has been pretty warm across the Southeast for the last few months (the oceans also likely have warmed as well); La Nina favors a ridge over the Southeast (also why the U.S. mid-Atlantic has had such an awful, snowless, rainy winter, as you can read by the rants here about how sick they are of La Nina and the Southeast Ridge - LOL).



Amazing.....That is exactly what i was thinking but was not sure. Well it seems likely. Also the sub ridge as been established further west than usual. Slackening the current to its east (Canary) and strenghtening the current on the west (Gulf Stream). And downwelling as you pointed out.
Member Since: July 24, 2005 Posts: 407 Comments: 19076
921. MichaelSTL
5:12 PM CST on March 08, 2008
Columbus, Ohio set an all-time snowfall record today:

RECORD EVENT REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
602 PM EST SAT MAR 8 2008

...RECORD STORM TOTAL SNOWFALL SET AT COLUMBUS...
...RECORD 24 HOUR MAXIMUM SNOWFALL SET AT COLUMBUS...


AS OF 5 PM...THE PORT COLUMBUS INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT HAD RECORDED
15.4 INCHES OF SNOWFALL TODAY. THIS COMBINED WITH THE FIVE INCHES
THAT FELL ON FRIDAY...PROVIDES A STORM TOTAL SNOWFALL OF 20.4
INCHES. THIS BREAKS THE OLD RECORD FOR STORM TOTAL SNOWFALL OF 15.3
INCHES SET ON FEBRUARY 17-18 1910. THE 15.4 INCHES THAT FELL TODAY
HAS ALSO BROKEN THE RECORD FOR MAXIMUM SNOWFALL IN A 24 HOUR
PERIOD. THE PREVIOUS RECORD WAS 12.3 INCHES ON APRIL 4 1987.
Member Since: February 22, 2006 Posts: 94 Comments: 32744
920. MichaelSTL
4:40 PM CST on March 08, 2008
It also appears that the pattern will continue:

Member Since: February 22, 2006 Posts: 94 Comments: 32744
919. MichaelSTL
4:34 PM CST on March 08, 2008
I cannot explain the reason for above average temperatures of the Gulf and Gulf Stream.

Could that be from the trade winds forcing warm water westwards into the Gulf and thus Gulf Stream (I think stronger trades would mean a stronger Gulf Stream since the current first flows westwards through the Caribbean, before looping through the Gulf and up the East Coast; this would also mean positive anomalies since the water further north is normally cooler and increased flow would push warm water further north)? Also, it has been pretty warm across the Southeast for the last few months (the oceans also likely have warmed as well); La Nina favors a ridge over the Southeast (also why the U.S. mid-Atlantic has had such an awful, snowless, rainy winter, as you can read by the rants here about how sick they are of La Nina and the Southeast Ridge - LOL).
Member Since: February 22, 2006 Posts: 94 Comments: 32744
918. NorthxCakalaky
10:28 PM GMT on March 08, 2008
Statement as of 11:14 AM EST on March 08, 2008


... Accumulating snowfall will continue in the North Carolina
mountains today...

... Winter Weather Advisory remains in effect until 7 PM EST this
evening...

A Winter Weather Advisory remains in effect until 7 PM EST this
evening.

Scattered snow showers will continue across the southern and
central mountains this afternoon. Coverage of the snow showers
will decrease late this afternoon... ending by the early evening.
Higher elevations should to see 1 to 2 inches of snow by the time
precipitation tapers off to flurries late this afternoon. The
mountain valleys may see accumulations range from an inch at
Robbinsville and Bryson City to a few tenths of and inch of snow
at Franklin.

A Winter Weather Advisory means that periods of snow will cause
travel difficulties. Be prepared for slippery roads and limited
visibilities... and use caution while driving.

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917. HadesGodWyvern (Mod)
10:25 PM GMT on March 08, 2008
...Jokwe is the tenth named cyclone though
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916. NorthxCakalaky
10:20 PM GMT on March 08, 2008
915. dearmas 10:05 PM GMT on March 08, 2008
I really want to see falling

Action: | Ignore User

I live a county away from there.Places here get less snow in March and April.Should have came in February.You shouldnt see snow Wednesday.Might rain up there Friday.

It did snow here today though.
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915. dearmas
5:05 PM EST on March 08, 2008
I really want to see falling
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914. dearmas
5:02 PM EST on March 08, 2008
pat could that chance and have snow
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913. Patrap
3:58 PM CST on March 08, 2008
Banner Elk, North Carolina 5-day forecast Link
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912. dearmas
9:54 PM GMT on March 08, 2008
I need help, I have a question. How hard is it to tell if there will be snow 5-6 days out from today. I'm going Skiing on Weds in NC Banner Elk. And just want to see if I will see snow falling. I've never seen snow. Thanks for any help
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911. Weather456
5:39 PM AST on March 08, 2008
Sign of things to come?


The 2008 cyclone season in the southwestern Indian Ocean has recorded the highest number of cyclones in possibly a decade because of the climate phenomenon called La Niña, according to meteorologists.

"The tropical cyclone Jokwe, which is expected to hit the northern coast of Mozambique on 8 March will be the twelfth this season," said Mussa Mustafa, head of Mozambique's Meteorological Institute (INAM). "We normally record an average of nine cyclones per season."


There is now Tropical Storm 13R out there.
Member Since: July 24, 2005 Posts: 407 Comments: 19076
910. Weather456
5:18 PM AST on March 08, 2008
This image is rather interesting.

Above average sea surface temperatures along the West African Coast due to the weaker Canary current.

Below normal SSTs across much of the Central-Western Tropical Atlantic and Caribbean east of 80W. This is not suprising with increase velocities of the tradewinds that brought below normal temperatures to the region December, Januaury and February.

I cannot explain the reason for above average temperatures of the Gulf and Gulf Stream.

Also notice exceptionally below average temperatures just near the Gulf of Teheantepec. This is no doubt the cause of the many upwelling events there this past winter.

Member Since: July 24, 2005 Posts: 407 Comments: 19076
909. Weather456
4:59 PM AST on March 08, 2008
This system really has some excellent outflow in all quadrants. Despite this, pattern evolution is on halt. The curve band pattern is slow to grow. Infrared Loop


Member Since: July 24, 2005 Posts: 407 Comments: 19076
908. Ivansrvivr
8:45 PM GMT on March 08, 2008
Statistics don't mean squat during hurricane season. Florida missed getting major hit for almost 20 yrs, but averages 1 in 5 in some parts. How many storms doesn't mean squat either. The bottom line is steering. Steering. Steering. History doesn't mean squat, statistics are just numbers on paper. If la Nina holds strong like last year, look for larger, enhanced Bermuda high to steer everything south and west. If La Nina weakens, words like tragic, disaster, horrendous don't do justice to the threat posed. A weakening La Nina often puts the eastern seaboard in harms way. Think 1989, 1998,1999. The numbers may not be so far above average like last few years, but steering is key factor, not how many names happen. Many people try to figure the number of named storms before the season. I would prefer if folks tried to pick the preferred track or steering currents.
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907. wxhatt
8:23 PM GMT on March 08, 2008
I know they are having blizzard condtions in some parts of the country, but we have been getting wind gust near 50mph!
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906. hurricane23
3:14 PM EST on March 08, 2008
Hey folks my new blog is up and running!Feel free to leave comments anytime.

AdriansWeatherBlog
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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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