Lufthansa jet narrowly avoids crashing in German windstorm

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 6:39 PM GMT on March 05, 2008

Share this Blog
2
+

A Lufthansa Airbus A320 with 137 people on board nearly crashed at the Hamburg, Germany airport on Saturday, March 1, as the pilot struggled to land the airplane during high winds kicked up by winter storm "Emma". If you don't have a fear of flying, take at look at the remarkable video an amateur photographer captured of the landing. It's been uploaded to LiveLeak.com and YouTube. As seen in the still images captured from the video (Figure 1), the pilot attempted to land the aircraft with a strong crosswind blowing from right to left. The crosswind is so strong that the drift angle of the aircraft (the difference between where the nose is pointed and the actual track of the airplane along the runway) is about 20 degrees. As the pilot touches the wheels down, he kicks the rudder to straighten the airplane out, and at that moment, a strong gust of wind lifts up the right wing, pushing the left wingtip of the aircraft into the runway. The pilot is skillful and lucky enough to avoid having the airplane cartwheel down the runway and explode, and aborts the landing attempt. You can see the blast of the engines kick up a cloud of dust on the left side of the runway as he goes to full throttle for a "go around" (thanks to Jeff Weber of UNIDATA for making the correct analysis of this dust cloud). The plane landed safely on its second attempt. Do you think the passengers were praying during that second landing? I do! Only minor damage was done to the left wingtip, and the plane was back in service by the next day.


Figure 1. Still photo of the Lufthansa jet (left) as it approached the runway. Note sharp angle between the direction the airplane's nose is pointed, and the track it is taking along the length of the runway. Strong winds of 40 mph gusting to 63 mph were observed at the airport that afternoon. Right photo: the left wingtip of the jet scrapes the runway as a big gust of wind hits. Image credit: LiveLeak.com.

The weather that led to the near disaster
The initial press reports indicated that a wind gust of 155 mph hit the aircraft as it tried to land. That sounded rather dubious to me, so I took a closer look at the weather conditions that day. The only way a wind gust of that magnitude could have been generated would be from a powerful microburst flowing out from the base of a severe thunderstorm. The world record strongest thunderstorm microburst occurred on August 1, 1983, when winds of 149.5 mph were clocked at Andrews Air Force Base near Washington D.C., just five minutes after President Reagan landed there aboard Air Force 1. So, a 155 mph wind gust is possible, but it would be a new world record.


Figure 2. Visible satellite image from 10:20 GMT Saturday March 1 2008. Winter storm "Emma", a 960 mb low pressure centered north of Hamburg over Norway, has pushed a cold front through Germany. A strong northwest to west-northwest flow of air coming off the North Sea (red arrows) brought sustained winds of 36 mph, gusting to 56 mph, to Hamburg, Germany. Image credit: University of Bern, Switzerland.

Were there severe thunderstorms near Hamburg on March 1 that could have generated such a wind gust? A powerful low pressure system (Emma) with a central pressure of 960 mb passed to the north of Hamburg, Germany that morning, dragging a strong cold front through in the late morning (Figure 2). After cold frontal passage, the wunderground history page for Hamburg at 12:50 GMT, five minutes before the time of the incident, shows sustained winds of 35 mph, gusting to 56 mph. A temporary wind reading of 40 mph, gusting to 63 mph, also occurred. The temperature was about 45°F, with occasional rain. This is classic post-cold front weather, and is not the sort of environment where severe thunderstorms with strong microbursts occur. Later press reports corrected the 155 mph wind gust, reducing it to 56 mph. Apparently, the aircraft's landing speed was 155 mph. In any case, the plane was operating very near to the maximum crosswinds an Airbus A320 is permitted to land in--38 mph, gusting to 44 mph. There are questions whether air traffic control should have used that runway for landings, and whether or not the pilot should have attempted a landing in those conditions. There is an interesting discussion at the LiveATC.net discussion forum where some pilots weight in on the near-disaster.

Winter storm Emma did considerable damage across Germany. Six people died in weather-related automobile accidents, power was cut to 150,000 homes, and high winds ripped the roof off of a school in Hesse. In neighboring countries, 260 buildings lost their roofs in Poland, flooding collapsed a bridge in Romania, and in the Czech Republic, 92,000 people (about 10 percent of the population) lost power.

Jeff Masters

Reader Comments

Comments will take a few seconds to appear.

Post Your Comments

Please sign in to post comments.

or Join

Not only will you be able to leave comments on this blog, but you'll also have the ability to upload and share your photos in our Wunder Photos section.

Display: 0, 50, 100, 200 Sort: Newest First - Order Posted

Viewing: 53 - 3

Page: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 | 21 | 22 | 23 | 24 | 25 | 26Blog Index

53. surfmom
2:21 PM GMT on March 06, 2008
Well, I am off for my few hours of quiet before work, horses and kids today. Frankly if it rains all day I won't be too disappointed...just hope I get my waves this Sunday. have a nice day all - see ya Tonight.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
52. surfmom
2:19 PM GMT on March 06, 2008
Thanks CCHS lovely explanation. Guess it'll be the running shoes instead of the surfboard this AM
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
51. surfmom
2:07 PM GMT on March 06, 2008
Yes, the next front will be a wave maker for Saturday and especially Sunday. I work Saturday, but Sunday AM is MINE.

We do need rain, its like a tinder box out east by the Polo club & barns, so any and all rain is welcomed. The polo players on the other hand are not pleased as they will have canceled games, very dangerous to play polo (horses go 35 mph on the runs down the field, as the grass gets slippery, even with spike shoes when it is wet) Plus lightening is also a real concern - aluminum horseshoes and wide open fields are a recipe for lightening attraction - Polo horses are not cheap --so the concern is more for the money value of the horse, then the safety of the horse or human. But the horses and I will welcome a break from the constant pressure of games.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
50. cchsweatherman
9:07 AM EST on March 06, 2008
48. surfmom 9:06 AM EST on March 06, 2008
cchsWeatherman, what you say and your picture make sense, how come I WU forecast says 30% chance of rain...rather confuse this AM (what else is new?)


The WU forecast may have been developed before this convection began exploding out in the GOM. It has developed rather quickly and continues to deepen. But, as we have seen with this past front, once convection reaches the shallow coastal waters, it begins to wane and weakens over land. But, there is enough energy available to sustain these storms overland. Just have to wait and see how the three elements: (1) stationary front, (2) sea breezes, and (3) low-level energy will interact this afternoon.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
49. cchsweatherman
9:02 AM EST on March 06, 2008
45. surfmom 9:00 AM EST on March 06, 2008
sometimes life/weather is a real bitch. Waited all week to have a morning off to catch waves. Get the kids off to school, check the radar and the only storm cell in the gomex is aimed directly toward my beach/location. I am terrified of lightening (had a friend "BLOWN" off the beach) if I wait for the cell to pass it will be too late to have enough time to surf and get to work this afternoon. I am just hissing frustrated presently. Don't know if this cell will just evaporate once it gets closer,. and I should just grab the wet suit & board and wait it out or what grrrrrrr - Sometimes the random chaos of Mother Nature is a pain in the ass. I mean the entire West coast is clear except me..... figures... cause I've been whining for rain for weeks --now I got what I ask for ..LOL what to do but laugh


Just settle down there. If you're not able to go out and surf this morning, either tomorrow or Saturday morning should bring some nice surf to your area. With a cold front approaching, it should create some good swells.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
48. surfmom
2:04 PM GMT on March 06, 2008
cchsWeatherman, what you say and your picture make sense, how come WU forecast says 30% chance of rain...rather confused this AM (what else is new?)
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
47. emagirl
2:00 PM GMT on March 06, 2008
well hurricane season will be here before we know it...anyone have any early predictions for the season....
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
46. cchsweatherman
8:45 AM EST on March 06, 2008
Seems like Southern and Central Florida will receive some more rainfall and storms as convection is building in the GOM along the stationary boundary. Could spark some strong storms as this activity will move over the area and interact with the sea breeze. Watch for dangerous lightning, localized flooding, hail, and strong winds with the storms this afternoon, mainly in the Eastern half.
img src="Photobucket" alt="" />
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
45. surfmom
1:51 PM GMT on March 06, 2008
sometimes life/weather is a real bitch. Waited all week to have a morning off to catch waves. Get the kids off to school, check the radar and the only storm cell in the gomex is aimed directly toward my beach/location. I am terrified of lightening (had a friend "BLOWN" off the beach) if I wait for the cell to pass it will be too late to have enough time to surf and get to work this afternoon. I am just hissing frustrated presently. Don't know if this cell will just evaporate once it gets closer,. and I should just grab the wet suit & board and wait it out or what grrrrrrr - Sometimes the random chaos of Mother Nature is a pain in the ass. I mean the entire West coast is clear except me..... figures... cause I've been whining for rain for weeks --now I got what I asked for ..LOL what to do but laugh
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
44. cchsweatherman
8:22 AM EST on March 06, 2008
Good morning all! In regards to 456's post, I had mentioned possible subtropical development occuring in that area last week as a few computer models showed a well-defined surface low that had a shallow warm core. Looks like the models may have been correct. Great observations by the way. It stands a small chance for development, so I will watch this system.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
43. Weather456
9:22 AM AST on March 06, 2008
thanks surf....

Anyone interested in a loop. The RAMSDIS has a floater on thier website.

http://rammb.cira.colostate.edu/ramsdis/online/tropical.asp
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
42. surfmom
12:59 PM GMT on March 06, 2008
Nice to read your post#41, W456. I spied that in the maps last night and wondered what exactly was going on there....(I thought "what a pretty swirl of clouds, kinda looks like it could be a system....hmmmm, probably just clouds") LOL. glad to get the science behind the picture
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
41. Weather456
8:19 AM AST on March 06, 2008
Subtropical Development Possible?

A vertically stacked non tropical low pressure areas has been cut-off from the main westerly flow by a a strong bridging high pressure system over the Northeast Atlantic. As a result the system has become occluded. Recent visible imagery showed a band of convection wrapping around the northeast qudrant with a clear frontal band evident extending to the south. Also, low level cloud motion showed dry air advection occuring within the dry slot, which further supports a non tropical system. QuikSCAT observations indicated a define close circulation with associated gale force winds mainly to the northwest due to the interaction with the high pressure ridge. The system is forecast to move southward as the blocking ridge builds further to Western Europe. Furthermore, cyclone phase diagrams showed the system aquiring a shallow warm-core structure and a contraction of the radius of maximum winds.

Currently the system is embedded within a broad upper level trough that should halt movement in the next 12-48 hrs. If the system remains embdded within the upper trough, wind shear should remain low enough for development. Sea surface temperatures are currently 20C under the disturbance, so I expect development, if any, to occur as the system moves more southward into warmer waters. I have tempted to mentioned the AMSU-A passes which indicated a weak warm-core at 250 hpa, but I'm not 100% convinced by this.

Despite this, the enviroment does not appear favorable for tropical development and this is reflected in the cyclone phase diagrams, where the GFS fills the low pressure area in 78 hrs time.

This Morning's QuikSCAT pass


Goes-12 Visible Image taken 12:15 UTC or 07:15 EST with surface observations overlaid


AMSU-A Channel 7 Temperature (250 hpa) 24 hr ending 10:07 UTC 6/3/08


Member Since: Posts: Comments:
40. davidw221
11:00 AM GMT on March 06, 2008
http://www.arl.noaa.gov/ready-bin/animation.pl?id=GFS&mdl=grads/gfs/panel2&file=anim
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
39. davidw221
10:50 AM GMT on March 06, 2008
Hey early last week there were comments about the long range models with a Nor-easter storm, well, I just looked at the NAM and the GFS, both state a fierce winter storm for the north-east United States, this weekend. Good forcasting U-guys and gals keep up the good work.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
38. FLWeatherFreak91
5:18 AM EST on March 06, 2008
Hey guys. I was just reading the Wunderground forecast for my area (odessa, fl) and it predicts winds gusting to 30mph tonight, 35 tomorrow, and 40 on Saturday. Besides small craft and lake wind what other advisories will be issued if the winds turn out that high?
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
37. flsky
5:35 AM GMT on March 06, 2008
VERY scary video. The worst part of a flight for me is the landing. When auto-pilot "lets go" and humankind takes over, you can certainly sense the difference. Perhaps someday, they can automate landings somehow.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
36. HIEXPRESS
8:56 PM EST on March 05, 2008
Some rain for the Kissimmee river & Lake Okeechobee
Melb, FL Radar
Front's still hanging around. Seabreeze strong enough today to push back & rotate a couple of these thunderstorms. In our summertime pattern here in FL, wind shifts & density changes due to sometimes opposing seabreeze fronts with thunderstorms/downbursts are a daily occurrence & source of consternation for pilots.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
35. NorthxCakalaky
1:06 AM GMT on March 06, 2008
6. MichaelSTL 7:46 PM GMT on March 05, 2008

"I wouldnt be standing under that airplane for recording".


Member Since: Posts: Comments:
34. NorthxCakalaky
1:03 AM GMT on March 06, 2008
Duke Energy said over 50,000 customers were without power in North Carolina because of strong winds, but more than 2,500 customers in the Carolinas remained powerless Wednesday afternoon.

from wxii12
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
33. KoritheMan
12:40 AM GMT on March 06, 2008
The plane landed safely on its second attempt. Do you think the passengers were praying during that second landing? I do! Only minor damage was done to the left wingtip, and the plane was back in service by the next day.

This is the interesting thing about prayer. Was it actually prayer, or the pilot's flight skills?
Member Since: March 7, 2007 Posts: 584 Comments: 20829
32. weathermanwannabe
5:54 PM CST on March 05, 2008
A rough landing (during a thuderstorm) at Dulles in DC in 1985 rattled me so much that I actually took the Amtrack back to South Florida from that trip and didn't get on a plane for another 2-3 years........Those people on that jet are so luckly and the Pilot should get a medal....That is the most unbeleivable "save" I have ever seen............Meanwhile, the weather is beautiful up here in the FL Panhandle and hard to beleive that another round of bad weather (with very heavy rain) is forcast right around the corner:

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
400 PM EST WED MAR 5 2008

THU WILL BE A PLEASANT DAY WITH MAX TEMPS RISING A COUPLE DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.
THEN THINGS GET INTERESTING. THE NRN AND SRN STREAM ENERGY WILL PHASE OVER THE PLAINS WITH A POSITIVELY TILTED TROUGH SWEEPING EWD.
AS THIS ENERGY NEARS THE GULF, CYCLOGENESIS WILL OCCUR ON THU. THIS WILL PULL THE GULF FRONT NWD AS A WARM FRONT. RAIN AND ISOLATE
THUNDERSTORMS WILL SPREAD NWD AS THE WARM FRONT ADVANCES. UNLIKE THE LAST FLOOD EVENT, THIS FRONT SHOULD KEEP ON MOVING NWD ACROSS THE
AREA. STILL, THE MODELS ARE SHOWING STRONG ISENTROPIC ASCENT ON THE 295 KT SURFACE AND HEAVY RAINS ARE ANTICIPATED. THE GFS LOOKS A BIT ODD WITH ITS DUAL LOW DEVELOPMENT AND ALSO APPEARS TO BE SUFFERING FROM GRID SCALE FEEDBACK. HOWEVER, OTHER MODELS ALSO SHOW
SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL AND THIS MAY BE THE MOST BIGGEST CONCERN WITH THIS EVENT. KINEMATIC FIELDS REMAIN IMPRESSIVE, SO ANY STABILIZATION THAT OCCURS IN THE WARM SECTOR WILL RESULT IN STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS. THIS IS INCLUDED IN THE FORECAST AND GRIDS. SOME OF THE MODELS ARE SHOWING BULLS EYES OF OVER 4 INCHES OF RAIN IN OUR AREA. WE HAVE DECIDED TO ISSUE AN ESF TO ALERT FOLKS OF THE POTENTIAL AREAL AND RIVERINE FLOODING. THE SYSTEM WILL SWEEP EWD FRI NIGHT SETTING UP A BREEZY NIGHT.


Oh Well.......At least it keeps the Pollen at Bay...........
Member Since: August 8, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 9226
31. thelmores
11:31 PM GMT on March 05, 2008
If I had been on that flight, I can say with reasonable certainty I would never fly again! LOL

Not to mention I would have had to buy some new underwear in the terminal!
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
30. NorthxCakalaky
11:28 PM GMT on March 05, 2008
2 Official tornados in the piemont/foothills of N.C.

The first line of storms gave a EF0 tornado in Caswell County.The NWS said the tornado jumped to several locations.Roofs were damage/blew away and many trees fell even on houses.

The second line of storms.This line gave like 90% of the state wind damage.(weatherunderground reported some of this shown on their map.) Another EF0 tornado hit Davie County.Chicken farms were destroyed with roofs blown away and numerous trees down.


Where I live. No tornado warning was issued here.Just a tornado watch.They did give a severe thunderstorm warning.Heres what happend. The winds picked up at nightime with light rain.I looked out my door and heard a roar.I have never heard wind so loud before with extreme amounts of rain.The wind was down the road and stayed there for about 2minutes.The next thing I knew was the power blinking.Then it hit.I heard trees snapping at times and saw them bent HALF WAY.Keep in mind I live around 2000f.t.When this wind came it looked like "White Out Conditions".The heavy rain came in sheets down the hills.The local emergency siren went off. Then it stopped in about 3mintues.The following morning people in Wilkes County said they thought it was a tornado.Again chicken farms were wiped out completely.Several trees fell with numerous branches.Tyson, a major buisness here lost power and lost tons of money since the dead chickens were not kept froze.A few thousand lost power here in Wilkes.The NWS came here today and said it was just straight line wind.The best part was N.C got a good 1-4inches of rain widespread over the state.

Looks like another rain chance here Friday.(Severe weather should stay over southern S.C)Friday night and into Saturday morning, rain will change to snow across the higher elevations.Today the models showed snow staying above 2500f.t.Could still come down since its only Wednesday.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
29. stormygace
11:40 PM GMT on March 05, 2008
LOL PuntaGordaPete - I heard that earlier today on Neal Boortz - imagine the grousing on board if he did not land at the appointed place at the appointed time & instead diverted! Air traffic control has input as well, no? I suspect grousing & second guessing are to be expected. For the situation the pilot did well & the plane load collectively were mighty lucky.
Thanks Dr. Masters for the informative interesting post. This explained some of what happened to us when our plane attempted a landing & aborted landing in Guanaja back in 1996 - SCAREY! (Much smaller plane though overloaded with SCUBA/camera equipment/luggage so not as severe a burst but definitely enough to set the plane a rocking & cause the nice missionary in the seat ahead to begin praying aloud)
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
28. Dakster
11:38 PM GMT on March 05, 2008
Hey guys.
------------------
Been there, done that, puked on my shirt...

A little bit of luck and skill from the pilot there.

--------------

How about this wacky weather this year. Hotter than heck right now in Miami. Colder and snowing above average in the North... I hope this isn't a sign of a nasty upcoming tropical season...
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
27. PuntaGordaPete
6:35 PM EST on March 05, 2008
There is an old saying that pilots should use their exceptional judgement to avoid a need to use their exceptional skill.

Frankly, the Lufthansa pilot should have abandoned the landing attempt quite a bit earlier.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
26. stormygace
10:32 PM GMT on March 05, 2008
Auf Lufthansa! The Lufthansa pilots have always been known for their exceptional skill. The airline itself has an admirable record. My parents had friends who were with Lufthansa in the 1970s - Elke was an attendant & Horst was a pilot. I still remember being a teenager & riding shotgun with Horst bombing along in his Alpine 2001 - yeah baby!
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
25. surfmom
10:41 PM GMT on March 05, 2008
looks like I'm getting a bit of rain in few minutes,Gulf provided beautiful waves today (thanks to the front)too tired to go after work,going for early 7:00am session tomorrow to catch the clean-up :)
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
24. ShenValleyFlyFish
4:55 PM EST on March 05, 2008
I'm flying Lufthansa from here on out. That was some exceptional flying. I had a dear friend bought the farm in a very similar situation. He was flying a twin engine commuter prop into Alaska. No burst of power from jet engines to pull out with.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
23. BahaHurican
5:01 PM EST on March 05, 2008
Also it's already overcast here with the approach of the latest front. It's looking like it's going to be quite a wet weekend :o(.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
22. Inyo
10:01 PM GMT on March 05, 2008
I had a kind of 'funny' crosswind landing in Seattle once... a little scary but the pilot did an excellent job of landing the plane safely.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
21. BahaHurican
4:50 PM EST on March 05, 2008
Currently we have two tropical cyclones in the Indian Ocean:

1. TC Ophelia, currently paralleling the W. Australian coast, with winds at 40 kts and falling.

2. TC Jokwe, getting ready to strike the northern tip of Madagascar, with winds currently at 50kts and forecasted to strengthen.

There is also a broad area of showers to the SW of Indonesia (in the general vicinty of 96E, 6S) which NRL has listed as an invest.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
20. PuntaGordaPete
4:55 PM EST on March 05, 2008
The original report from the scene almost certainly gave wind speeds in m/s or km/hr. I am guessing that some press dude inverted the conversion factor to get mph. For example, 100 km/hr would be about 62.5 mph if done correctly or 160 mph if done incorrectly.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
19. BahaHurican
4:47 PM EST on March 05, 2008
Afternoon everybody. I saw some footage of that yesterday, I think on both TWC and CNN. That's some pretty dramatic weather.

Bet the pilot had quite a few drinks, or otherwise a long prayer session at the neareast church . . .

[I mean AFTER the event . .. lol].

Member Since: Posts: Comments:
18. Patrap
3:34 PM CST on March 05, 2008
Always land Long..never short of the strip.
Full Powa and go round please...

Nice angle on the pic.
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 426 Comments: 128651
17. Parkay
9:13 PM GMT on March 05, 2008
Here's a better picture of the wingtip strike:



Pucker factor 100.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
16. NEwxguy
9:04 PM GMT on March 05, 2008
was caught in a downdraft landing at Atlanta,it was scary,would not compare it to a Disney ride
Member Since: September 6, 2007 Posts: 881 Comments: 15838
14. Patrap
2:33 PM CST on March 05, 2008
2 Bad Hong Kong Landings, crosswinds incurred.
747,and a L10-11 Link
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 426 Comments: 128651
13. hurricane23
3:26 PM EST on March 05, 2008
Not sure i understand how that can be a magic carbet ride as lives could have been lost thankfully they were able to land safely.

Very dangerous situation.
Member Since: May 14, 2006 Posts: 8 Comments: 13804
12. LakeShadow
8:16 PM GMT on March 05, 2008
hey folk! wow that was something! I used to live right next to an international airport. You can see the places wobbling as they approached, Id always think they would fly into my house! lol!
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
11. Floodman
8:17 PM GMT on March 05, 2008
4. PeachTree 7:35 PM GMT on March 05, 2008
a magic carpet ride!!!!!



Nearly a "Tragic Carpet Ride"
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
10. Floodman
8:14 PM GMT on March 05, 2008
OK, I guess I didn't know that European winter storms got names..."Emma"? How long has that been the practice? Or is there some website somewhere that will tell me about this?


The Europeans name high and low pressure systems; there is actually a bidding process to name them; if memory serves there isn't a naming convention per se, but rather the public gets to bid on what the name will be and the winning bid is the name
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
9. cspencef
8:05 PM GMT on March 05, 2008
OK, I guess I didn't know that European winter storms got names..."Emma"? How long has that been the practice? Or is there some website somewhere that will tell me about this?
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
8. Weather456
3:56 PM AST on March 05, 2008
....SYNOPSIS....

GULF OF MEXICO/NORTHWEST ATLANTIC OCEAN WEST OF 50W....

High pressure is situated 1019 mb over Northeast Alabama. This high is producing exceptionally fair weather over the Deep South and Southeast United States. Fair weather is also over Mainland Mexico due to an upper level confluent environment and high ridging extending along the Sierra Madre Mountains. The high is also producing a weak surface pressure pattern over the Gulf resulting in light to moderate variable winds and 6-8 ft seas. Meanwhile, a zone of low cloudiness and scattered showers covers most of the Gulf of Mexico from Yucatan to Florida. This activity mainly associated with remnant moisture behind a frontal boundary extending from Guatemala at 18N/89W across the Southeast Gulf and Southern Florida.

The frontal boundary continues from Southern Florida along 30N/79W 34N/75W to a 995 mb low at 40N/77W. Deep cloudiness and shower activity is positioned along the front and 60 nmi ahead. A very deep surface ridge is centered 1032 mb near 35N/53W producing pronounce anticyclonic flow across the Atlantic between 70W and 45W from the Northeast Caribbean to 35N. Broken to overcast stratocumulus clouds and possible showers are seen rotating in and around the flow around the high. Fair weather seen elsewhere. Meanwhile, the subtropical jet has its axis at 250 mb from just east of the Florida Peninsula to 30W roughly between 15N and 24N with a jet max of 90 knots. No associated accompany moisture.

CENTRAL AMERICA AND THE CARIBBEAN REGION....

A steady and typical easterly flow is blowing through the Caribbean south of the large high north of the region. This is allowing 15-20 knot trades and 6-8 ft seas. These conditions should be amplified along the Colombian Coast/SW Caribbean Sea where the 1010 mb Colombian Low has established itself. Meanwhile, trades are advecting scattered low clouds with possible shower activity across the Eastern and Northern Caribbean. A sharp upper ridge has its axis extending from Guyana near 5N/58W to a crest at the Yucatan Peninsula near 20N/90W. The associated flow around the ridge is advecting high level moisture in the form of cirriform clouds from thunderstorm activity over Northern South America across the Caribbean south of 15N from 85W to the Tropical Atlantic.

by W456

Member Since: Posts: Comments:
7. NEwxguy
7:52 PM GMT on March 05, 2008
makes you airsick just watching it
Member Since: September 6, 2007 Posts: 881 Comments: 15838
5. Inyo
7:33 PM GMT on March 05, 2008
I guess that Youtube video is a computer generated re-enactment rather than an actual video. Still pretty amazing and scary. I hope I don't hit that sort of weather while flying to Atlanta in May.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
3. Floodman
7:34 PM GMT on March 05, 2008
Wow, what a ride!
Member Since: Posts: Comments:

Viewing: 53 - 3

Page: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 | 21 | 22 | 23 | 24 | 25 | 26Blog Index

Top of Page

About

Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.