Lufthansa jet narrowly avoids crashing in German windstorm

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 6:39 PM GMT on March 05, 2008

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A Lufthansa Airbus A320 with 137 people on board nearly crashed at the Hamburg, Germany airport on Saturday, March 1, as the pilot struggled to land the airplane during high winds kicked up by winter storm "Emma". If you don't have a fear of flying, take at look at the remarkable video an amateur photographer captured of the landing. It's been uploaded to LiveLeak.com and YouTube. As seen in the still images captured from the video (Figure 1), the pilot attempted to land the aircraft with a strong crosswind blowing from right to left. The crosswind is so strong that the drift angle of the aircraft (the difference between where the nose is pointed and the actual track of the airplane along the runway) is about 20 degrees. As the pilot touches the wheels down, he kicks the rudder to straighten the airplane out, and at that moment, a strong gust of wind lifts up the right wing, pushing the left wingtip of the aircraft into the runway. The pilot is skillful and lucky enough to avoid having the airplane cartwheel down the runway and explode, and aborts the landing attempt. You can see the blast of the engines kick up a cloud of dust on the left side of the runway as he goes to full throttle for a "go around" (thanks to Jeff Weber of UNIDATA for making the correct analysis of this dust cloud). The plane landed safely on its second attempt. Do you think the passengers were praying during that second landing? I do! Only minor damage was done to the left wingtip, and the plane was back in service by the next day.


Figure 1. Still photo of the Lufthansa jet (left) as it approached the runway. Note sharp angle between the direction the airplane's nose is pointed, and the track it is taking along the length of the runway. Strong winds of 40 mph gusting to 63 mph were observed at the airport that afternoon. Right photo: the left wingtip of the jet scrapes the runway as a big gust of wind hits. Image credit: LiveLeak.com.

The weather that led to the near disaster
The initial press reports indicated that a wind gust of 155 mph hit the aircraft as it tried to land. That sounded rather dubious to me, so I took a closer look at the weather conditions that day. The only way a wind gust of that magnitude could have been generated would be from a powerful microburst flowing out from the base of a severe thunderstorm. The world record strongest thunderstorm microburst occurred on August 1, 1983, when winds of 149.5 mph were clocked at Andrews Air Force Base near Washington D.C., just five minutes after President Reagan landed there aboard Air Force 1. So, a 155 mph wind gust is possible, but it would be a new world record.


Figure 2. Visible satellite image from 10:20 GMT Saturday March 1 2008. Winter storm "Emma", a 960 mb low pressure centered north of Hamburg over Norway, has pushed a cold front through Germany. A strong northwest to west-northwest flow of air coming off the North Sea (red arrows) brought sustained winds of 36 mph, gusting to 56 mph, to Hamburg, Germany. Image credit: University of Bern, Switzerland.

Were there severe thunderstorms near Hamburg on March 1 that could have generated such a wind gust? A powerful low pressure system (Emma) with a central pressure of 960 mb passed to the north of Hamburg, Germany that morning, dragging a strong cold front through in the late morning (Figure 2). After cold frontal passage, the wunderground history page for Hamburg at 12:50 GMT, five minutes before the time of the incident, shows sustained winds of 35 mph, gusting to 56 mph. A temporary wind reading of 40 mph, gusting to 63 mph, also occurred. The temperature was about 45°F, with occasional rain. This is classic post-cold front weather, and is not the sort of environment where severe thunderstorms with strong microbursts occur. Later press reports corrected the 155 mph wind gust, reducing it to 56 mph. Apparently, the aircraft's landing speed was 155 mph. In any case, the plane was operating very near to the maximum crosswinds an Airbus A320 is permitted to land in--38 mph, gusting to 44 mph. There are questions whether air traffic control should have used that runway for landings, and whether or not the pilot should have attempted a landing in those conditions. There is an interesting discussion at the LiveATC.net discussion forum where some pilots weight in on the near-disaster.

Winter storm Emma did considerable damage across Germany. Six people died in weather-related automobile accidents, power was cut to 150,000 homes, and high winds ripped the roof off of a school in Hesse. In neighboring countries, 260 buildings lost their roofs in Poland, flooding collapsed a bridge in Romania, and in the Czech Republic, 92,000 people (about 10 percent of the population) lost power.

Jeff Masters

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403. nash28
10:28 AM EST on March 07, 2008
The soundings have the SPC a bit concerned...
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402. weatherboyfsu
3:27 PM GMT on March 07, 2008
Its anyone's guess......but i am thinking around rush hour.........When upper energy catches up with area, it will push it thru fast and furious........
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401. nash28
10:24 AM EST on March 07, 2008
Yeah... I expect they may raise the risk to moderate, especially if instability continues to rise. Given the shear, I expect the Tornado Watches to cover the Tampa area and points EWD to the Space Coast for later tonight.
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399. weatherboyfsu
3:23 PM GMT on March 07, 2008
No one knows exactly.........Read this entry by melbourne.....


AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
947 AM EST FRI MAR 7 2008

.DISCUSSION...

...CHANCE FOR SIGNIFICANT SEVERE WEATHER THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING...

TODAY/TONIGHT...STRONG SQUALL LINE IN THE PROCESS OF DEVELOPING
SOUTHWESTWARD FROM THE FLORIDA BIG BEND REGION INTO THE
CENTRAL/SOUTH CENTRAL GULF. NORTHERN PORTION OF THE LINE HAS BEEN
RACING EAST AT 40 KNOTS OR GREATER. SOUTHERN PORTION IS LAGGING
BACK BUT SHOULD ACCELERATE EASTWARD AS VIGOROUS TROUGH ALOFT ALONG
THE WEST GULF COAST CATCHES UP WITH LINE.

PRESENTLY THE ENTIRE AREA HAS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE WEATHER BUT
GIVEN THE STRENGTH OF THE LOW LEVEL JET ON THE 12Z SOUNDINGS AND
MODEL FORECASTS SHOWING 850 MB WINDS OF 50-60 KNOTS ACROSS NORTHERN
PORTIONS DURING THE AFTERNOON...WE HAVE CONCERNS THAT THIS COULD BE
A SIGNIFICANT SEVERE WEATHER EVENT.

TIMING IS TRICKY AS NORTHERN PORTION OF LINE SHOULD PASS ACROSS THE
NORTH AND NORTH CENTRAL PENINSULA LATE THIS MORNING INTO THE EARLY
AFTERNOON AND BRING A RISK OF SEVERE WEATHER. THE SOUTH HALF OF THE
AREA WILL HEAT UP INTO THE MID 80S WHICH WILL CONTINUE TO FUEL THE
LINE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT
SHOULD LAST TO AROUND MIDNIGHT.

ADDITIONALLY...ISOLATED TO SCATTERED CELLS ARE EXPECTED TO FORM
AHEAD OF THE LINE DURING DAYTIME HEATING. WITH SURFACE DEW POINTS
AROUND 70...MAX TEMPS IN THE MID 80S AND IMPRESSIVE LOW LEVEL
SHEAR...SOME OF THESE STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO BECOME SEVERE.

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398. nash28
10:23 AM EST on March 07, 2008
Gryff- You're fine this afternoon. It's tonight, especially later in the evening that you may not want to be venturing out.
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396. weatherboyfsu
3:20 PM GMT on March 07, 2008
Reports coming in that a tornado touchdown in tallahassee..........2 Dead..........

Link
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395. Patrap
9:19 AM CST on March 07, 2008

NEXRAD Radar
Jacksonville Storm Relative Mean Radial Velocity 1.45 Degree Elevation Range 124 NMI

Link
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 421 Comments: 127550
393. NEwxguy
3:16 PM GMT on March 07, 2008
this tornado continues to march across the state.

Tornado Warning
SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
1012 AM EST FRI MAR 7 2008

FLC003-GAC049-071530-
/O.CON.KJAX.TO.W.0006.000000T0000Z-080307T1530Z/
BAKER FL-CHARLTON GA-
1012 AM EST FRI MAR 7 2008

...A TORNADO WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1030 AM EST FOR SOUTHERN
CHARLTON AND BAKER COUNTIES...

AT 1007 AM EST...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR CONTINUED TO
INDICATE A TORNADO. THIS TORNADO WAS LOCATED NEAR SANDERSON...OR 14
MILES NORTH OF RAIFORD...MOVING EAST AT 40 TO 50 MPH.

THE PARENT THUNDERSTORM PRODUCING THE TORNADO WILL MOBVE INTO THE
SANDERSON AND MCCLENNY AREAS.

THIS IS AN EXTREMELY DANGEROUS AND LIFE THREATENING SITUATION. THIS
STORM IS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING STRONG TO VIOLENT TORNADOES. IF YOU ARE
IN THE PATH OF THIS TORNADO...TAKE COVER IMMEDIATELY!

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392. Patrap
9:17 AM CST on March 07, 2008

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
TORNADO WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
1014 AM EST FRI MAR 7 2008

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN JACKSONVILLE HAS ISSUED A

* TORNADO WARNING FOR...
EASTERN BRANTLEY COUNTY IN SOUTHEAST GEORGIA
SOUTHEASTERN WAYNE COUNTY IN SOUTHEAST GEORGIA
NORTHWESTERN CAMDEN COUNTY IN SOUTHEAST GEORGIA
WESTERN GLYNN COUNTY IN SOUTHEAST GEORGIA

Link
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 421 Comments: 127550
391. weatherboykris
3:17 PM GMT on March 07, 2008
The SPC has now placed the area in the "Slight" Risk area for today, and they have insinuated they may actually upgrade that to Moderate. It is very rare for a Moderate risk here, and even rarer for them to pan out.




...FL/SERN GA...
ONGOING QLCS IS EXPECTED TO RACE ENEWD ACROSS NRN FL/SRN GA THIS
MORNING /REFERENCE WW 104 AND ASSOCIATED SWOMCD/ AND POSSIBLY EXIT
THE SERN GA/NERN FL COAST AROUND 16-17Z. ALTHOUGH H85 FLOW WILL
GRADUALLY VEER THROUGH THE DAY...SURFACE WINDS WILL REMAIN SSWLY AND
MAINTAIN ENHANCED LOW LEVEL SHEAR AS AIR MASS BECOMES MODERATELY
UNSTABLE IN WAKE OF WARM FRONT NOW LIFTING NWD ACROSS CENTRAL FL.
12Z SOUNDING FROM TBW INDICATED STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES ARE IN
PLACE FURTHER ENHANCING INSTABILITY THIS AFTERNOON AHEAD OF STORMS
SPREADING EWD OFF THE GULF OF MEXICO...AS WELL AS WITH ANY ISOLATED
DEVELOPMENT INLAND. ACTIVITY WILL SPREAD ACROSS THE NRN HALF OF FL
EARLIER TODAY...AND MAY AWAIT STRONG UVV/S AND SURFACE FRONT BEFORE
ACTIVITY SPREADS ACROSS REMAINDER OF FL LATER TODAY/TONIGHT. GIVEN
STRENGTHENING DEEP LAYER SHEAR AHEAD OF MID/UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH...ENVIRONMENT WILL REMAIN QUITE FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS IN THE FORM OF SUPERCELLS AND SMALL BOWING SEGMENTS.
TORNADOES AND DAMAGING WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BE PRIMARY SEVERE
THREATS...ALTHOUGH STEEP LAPSE RATES AND MODERATE INSTABILITY WILL
ALSO SUPPORT LARGE HAIL. TORNADO/WIND THREAT COULD BE LOCALLY
ENHANCED BY E-W ORIENTED WARM FRONT/OUTFLOW FROM THIS MORNING/S
STORMS ACROSS CENTRAL FL TODAY...GIVEN EXPECTED DEGREE OF SHEAR AND
INSTABILITY. AN UPGRADE MAY BE WARRANTED IN LATER OUTLOOKS.
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390. Patrap
9:15 AM CST on March 07, 2008
TVS ..in 2 states currently..

NEXRAD Radar
Jacksonville Base Reflectivity 0.50 Degree Elevation Range 124 NMI
Link
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389. TampaSpin
10:14 AM EST on March 07, 2008
Check out Low pressure developing off the coast of Mexico....wow..
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388. sporteguy03
3:14 PM GMT on March 07, 2008
Dr.Masters,
Thank you for the update good thing that plane survived. Is nice and warm in Central FL.
Member Since: July 7, 2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 5152
387. TampaSpin
10:11 AM EST on March 07, 2008
I am very concerned of the cross section of wind fields.......and the heating of the day ....is really sitting up for a very bad evening IMO.
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386. NEwxguy
3:10 PM GMT on March 07, 2008
The thing that may save southern florida is the fact most of the energy will get pulled north later today,but for northern and central florida look out.
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385. cchsweatherman
10:08 AM EST on March 07, 2008
Correct Tampa. That is not good news!!! Just adds further instability to an already volatile and unstable airmass. Looks like we will indeed see pre-Independence Day fireworks here in Central and Southern Florida tonight. This is all going to happen on the worst night; Friday night when Floridians usually enjoy the beginning of the weekend by going out and having fun. Please stay indoors tonight.
Member Since: April 14, 2007 Posts: 8 Comments: 5163
384. NEwxguy
3:08 PM GMT on March 07, 2008
Tampa,they are already getting ready with flood warnings and high wind warnings up here,it appears the flooding could get serious around here,but for now you people are under the gun.
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383. Buhdog
3:05 PM GMT on March 07, 2008
Clouds seem to be warming over the water a bit.
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382. TampaSpin
10:06 AM EST on March 07, 2008
cchsweatherman
The sun is shining.
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381. TampaSpin
10:05 AM EST on March 07, 2008
NeWx yes it looks that way and it seems the real low is going to get tighter as it slides East... Its coming at you with problems also.
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380. cchsweatherman
10:00 AM EST on March 07, 2008
Convection continues to deepen out in the Central Gulf with overshooting cumulonimbus cloudtops. Can't even imagine how severe the weather is out in the GOM. Please be careful Floridians. Looking like a potentially deadly situation setting up.

In this satellite image, tell me what you see over Central and Southern Florida right now. This is not a trick question by the way, it is something very important.

img src="Photobucket" alt="" />
Member Since: April 14, 2007 Posts: 8 Comments: 5163
379. NEwxguy
3:02 PM GMT on March 07, 2008
watch yourself tampa,your probably getting it later today
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378. TampaSpin
10:00 AM EST on March 07, 2008
We have a bright sun shining which is going to add to more problems.
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377. NEwxguy
2:58 PM GMT on March 07, 2008

Tornado Warning
SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
948 AM EST FRI MAR 7 2008

FLC023-071515-
/O.CON.KJAX.TO.W.0004.000000T0000Z-080307T1515Z/
COLUMBIA FL-
948 AM EST FRI MAR 7 2008

...A TORNADO WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1015 AM EST FOR EASTERN
COLUMBIA COUNTY...

THIS IS AN EXTREMELY DANGEROUS SITUATION IN THE LAKE CITY AREA TAKE
SHELTER NOW!

AT 944 AM EST...WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR CONTINUED TO INDICATE A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WITH STRONG ROTATION. THIS TORNADO WAS LOCATED
NEAR WATERTOWN...OR NEAR LAKE CITY...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 55 MPH.

THE TORNADO WILL OTHERWISE REMAIN OVER MAINLY RURAL AREAS OF THE
INDICATED COUNTY.

THIS IS AN EXTREMELY DANGEROUS AND LIFE THREATENING SITUATION. THIS
STORM IS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING STRONG TO VIOLENT TORNADOES. IF YOU ARE
IN THE PATH OF THIS TORNADO...TAKE COVER IMMEDIATELY!

Member Since: Posts: Comments:
376. TampaSpin
9:58 AM EST on March 07, 2008
Lots of wind going different directions is never a good thing.......we have a very strong South wind in Tampa of nearly 15kts gusting higher
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374. TampaSpin
9:57 AM EST on March 07, 2008
It appears that Lake City is getting a direct hit......MAN
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373. MisterPerfect
2:51 PM GMT on March 07, 2008
Don't know which is worse the Stock Market or the weather....

Well at least with the weather it can be a perfect day in less than 2 hours...
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372. TampaSpin
9:48 AM EST on March 07, 2008
BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED TORNADO WARNING NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL 948 AM EST FRI MAR 7 2008 THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN JACKSONVILLE HAS ISSUED A * TORNADO WARNING FOR... NORTHEASTERN CHARLTON COUNTY IN SOUTHEAST GEORGIA BRANTLEY COUNTY IN SOUTHEAST GEORGIA EASTERN WARE COUNTY IN SOUTHEAST GEORGIA NORTHWESTERN CAMDEN COUNTY IN SOUTHEAST GEORGIA
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371. TampaSpin
9:43 AM EST on March 07, 2008
Don't know which is worse the Stock Market or the weather....
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370. NEwxguy
2:43 PM GMT on March 07, 2008



Tornado Warning
SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
943 AM EST FRI MAR 7 2008

FLC023-071515-
/O.CON.KJAX.TO.W.0004.000000T0000Z-080307T1515Z/
COLUMBIA FL-
943 AM EST FRI MAR 7 2008

...A TORNADO WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1015 AM EST FOR CENTRAL
COLUMBIA COUNTY...

AT 940 AM EST...WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR CONTINUED TO INDICATE A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WITH STRONG ROTATION. THIS TORNADO WAS LOCATED
NEAR LAKE CITY...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 55 MPH.

OTHER LOCATIONS IN THE WARNING INCLUDE BUT ARE NOT LIMITED TO LULU.

A TORNADO WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL NOON EST FRIDAY FOR
NORTHEASTERN FLORIDA AND SOUTHEAST GEORGIA.

Severe Weather Statement
SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
943 AM EST FRI MAR 7 2008

FLC023-071515-
/O.CON.KJAX.TO.W.0004.000000T0000Z-080307T1515Z/
COLUMBIA FL-
943 AM EST FRI MAR 7 2008

...A TORNADO WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1015 AM EST FOR CENTRAL
COLUMBIA COUNTY...

AT 940 AM EST...WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR CONTINUED TO INDICATE A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WITH STRONG ROTATION. THIS TORNADO WAS LOCATED
NEAR LAKE CITY...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 55 MPH.

OTHER LOCATIONS IN THE WARNING INCLUDE BUT ARE NOT LIMITED TO LULU.

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369. nash28
9:43 AM EST on March 07, 2008
The leading line is really extended pretty far to the SW in the Gulf.
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368. cchsweatherman
9:42 AM EST on March 07, 2008
On radar, it appears there is a hook echo heading straight into Lake City, FL. Hope people are prepared for a possible tornado htting them there. Looks like a very strong storm.
Member Since: April 14, 2007 Posts: 8 Comments: 5163
367. MisterPerfect
2:42 PM GMT on March 07, 2008
BY PHIL LONG
MiamiHerald.com

A tornado ripped through eastern Leon County Friday morning, damaging buildings and downing trees, mostly in an area near Capitola, which is 10 to 15 miles east of Tallahassee.

''We've had what appears to be a tornado that has gone through the eastern portion of Leon County,'' said Leon County Sheriff's Office Lt. Marilee Smith.

So far there are no confirmed injuries or deaths.

''We do have trees down on houses, damage to houses, trees down on cars,'' she said.

Smith said one man whose car had a tree fall on it was taken to the hospital but she did not have a report on his condition.

''We've still got troops on the ground out there going house to house checking on folks, trying to make their way through some of the trees across the roads and that kind of thing,'' Smith said.

The apparent tornado hit about 7:26 a.m. and was part of a strong line of storms moving across the Panhandle and North Florida into southern Georgia.
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366. TampaSpin
9:41 AM EST on March 07, 2008
It appears on radar to be going just North of Lake City
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365. cchsweatherman
9:41 AM EST on March 07, 2008
Just to let you know Patrap, the IR Loop you linked in your post is now about 11 hours behind.
Member Since: April 14, 2007 Posts: 8 Comments: 5163
364. TampaSpin
9:38 AM EST on March 07, 2008
There appears to be a tornado heading toward Lake City, FL...BEWARE
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363. Patrap
8:39 AM CST on March 07, 2008
NWS Survey teams make that assessment cchs, best to focus on where the storms are going.
Many are still in danger along these storms Paths.

GOM IR Loop Link
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 421 Comments: 127550
362. cchsweatherman
9:32 AM EST on March 07, 2008
360. Patrap 9:30 AM EST on March 07, 2008

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
906 AM EST FRI MAR 07 2008

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0725 AM TORNADO CAPITOLA 30.45N 84.09W
03/07/2008 LEON FL EMERGENCY MNGR

*** 2 FATAL, 1 INJ *** FOUR HOUSES WERE DESTROYED ON
WHITE HOUSE ROAD AND CAPITOLA ROAD. ONE PERSON IS MISSING
AND THERE ARE 2 SUSPECTED FATALITIES.


God bless those people and their families. Must have been at or above an EF3 for that to occur. Even though I love watching active weather, I hate to see things like this happen. Just goes to show how vulnerable we are to Mother Nature, the true supreme ruler of the Earth.
Member Since: April 14, 2007 Posts: 8 Comments: 5163
361. Patrap
8:32 AM CST on March 07, 2008

NEXRAD Radar
Tallahassee Base Reflectivity 0.50 Degree Elevation Range 124 NMI
Link
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 421 Comments: 127550
360. Patrap
8:30 AM CST on March 07, 2008

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
906 AM EST FRI MAR 07 2008

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0725 AM TORNADO CAPITOLA 30.45N 84.09W
03/07/2008 LEON FL EMERGENCY MNGR

*** 2 FATAL, 1 INJ *** FOUR HOUSES WERE DESTROYED ON
WHITE HOUSE ROAD AND CAPITOLA ROAD. ONE PERSON IS MISSING
AND THERE ARE 2 SUSPECTED FATALITIES.
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 421 Comments: 127550
359. MisterPerfect
2:29 PM GMT on March 07, 2008
Should be active well into midnight I'm hearing CCHS
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358. Patrap
8:29 AM CST on March 07, 2008
Dupage Severe Warnings Page Link
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 421 Comments: 127550
357. Buhdog
2:25 PM GMT on March 07, 2008
CCH....do you think you may be overhyping this just a bit? Water is exactly what is feeding this system.....once the line gets closer to land...the shallow water will dwindle this to a skinny (posssibly strong) line that will break up coming across land south of Charlotte county.....
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356. nash28
9:21 AM EST on March 07, 2008
From what I can tell, going over the last two runs of the Skew-T, the Cap is actually on a downward trend, thus instability should increase throughout the day.
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355. cchsweatherman
9:18 AM EST on March 07, 2008
Just emailed additional warnings to my friends just to get the message across that this will not be anything to play around with. I'm going to stay wake all night and watch these storms. Luckily for me, I don't have work or any responsibilities to worry about tomorrow so that I can go to sleep during the day.
Member Since: April 14, 2007 Posts: 8 Comments: 5163
354. cchsweatherman
9:15 AM EST on March 07, 2008
349. nash28 9:15 AM EST on March 07, 2008
Man, those cloud tops continue to become colder out in the Gulf and tops are beginning to overshoot.

Question will be will they survive after the warm water once they get closer to the coast?


In my opinion, these storms don't need warm water for fuel. There is so much instability and so much lower and upper level energy that I find it hard to believe these storms would not continue strengthening even when coming over land. This is one powerful system feeding off some incredible dynamics.
Member Since: April 14, 2007 Posts: 8 Comments: 5163
353. NEwxguy
2:15 PM GMT on March 07, 2008
... A Tornado Warning remains in effect until 930 am EST for northern
Lafayette County...

At 904 am EST... trained weather spotters reported a funnel cloud
near Mayo. This storm capable of producing a tornado was located
near Mayo... moving northeast at 50 mph.
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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.