Record early tornado season set to add more to its tally today
March will roar in like a lion today over the Southern U.S., with another volley of strong EF2 and EF3 tornadoes possible over portions of Louisiana, Arkansas, and Mississippi. The Storm Prediction Center has placed this region under its "Moderate Risk" target today--one level below the maximum "High Risk" threat level. The powerful low pressure system responsible for today's severe weather developed over Texas and Oklahoma on Sunday, spawning at least two tornadoes and hail up to 4.25" in diameter. The huge hail was reported in Buffalo, near the Kansas border.
The intensifying low pressure system will move through Louisiana, Arkansas, and Mississippi today, dragging a cold front through those states. This front has already spawned severe thunderstorms across eastern Texas and southern Arkansas this morning, with many reports of damaging thunderstorm winds. The tornado page is a good place to track the tornadoes as they occur today, along with our severe weather page.
2008 sets early tornado season records
The year 2008 smashed the record for most January and February tornadoes, with 368. The previous record was set in 1999, with 235 January/February tornadoes. Reliable tornado records extend back to 1950. The 232 tornadoes reported in February of 2008 was a record for the month of February. Second place goes to 1971, with a relatively paltry 83 tornadoes. Each of the past three years has seen an unusually early start to tornado season (Figure 1). One would expect to see a shift in tornado activity earlier in the year in a warming climate, along with an earlier than usual drop off in activity in late spring. We can see that in both 2005 and 2006 that tornado activity dropped off much earlier than usual, and it will be interesting to see if 2008 follows a similar pattern. Note that there is a very high natural variability in tornado numbers, and the record for fewest ever January and February tornadoes was set just six years ago in 2002, when only four twisters occurred. It will be at least ten more years before we can say with any confidence that a warming climate is leading to an earlier peak in tornado season. There does seem to be a tendency for more early season tornadoes during La Niña years--four of the five years that had January/February tornado counts 75 or above were all La Niña years (1971, 1975, 1999, and 2008). The only exception was 1998, which was an El Niño year, and had 118 January/February tornadoes.
Figure 1. Tornado reports so far this year have totaled 368 for the months of January and February, by far the greatest number of tornadoes observed so early in the year. Image credit: NOAA Storm Prediction Center.
Potential South Atlantic subtropical storm fizzles
Last Friday, I mentioned the possibility of a rare subtropical storm forming the South Atlantic off the coast of Brazil. It turned out that the candidate low pressure system wrapped a lot of dry air into its center, killing any chance it had to become a subtropical storm. There is still some vigorous tropical-looking thunderstorms firing up off the coast of Brazil this morning, and it is worth continuing to watch this region for formation of a subtropical storm. A separate low pressure system in southern Brazil has brought a wide variety of severe weather to Brazil, Argentina, and Uruguay over the past few days, as documented in the metsul.com weather blog (for those of you who read Portugese). For those of you who don't, try the web page translator at http://babelfish.altavista.com/babelfish/tr.
Jeff Masters
Reader Comments
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Weatherbro, you are correct that this could create a wind event for South Florida as the pressure gradient will increase throughout the day with the low over the SE and high pressure over the Atlantic just east of the Bahamas will cause a squeeze play. You should already notice it in northern and central Florida.
Major concern here in Florida is the front stalling over South Florida. With abundant tropical moisture beginning to lift northbound and the slight lift with the frontal boundary, I'm concerned for possible flooding rains anywhere from Lake Okeechobee southward into the Keys as any showers and storms will likely not be quick movers. I don't anticipate much severe weather until late Friday into Saturday when the much-mentioned cold front starts to interact with this boundary.
But, as always with weather, we just have to prepare for the worst and hope for the best, even though I don't see any deadly storms, except with the lightning that could be produced. Only time will tell what will happen.
GOM IR Loop... Link
Tallahassee Base Reflectivity 0.50 Degree Elevation Range 124 NMI
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Tallahassee Storm Relative Mean Radial Velocity 1.45 Degree Elevation Range 124 NMI
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No warnings since 0609 cst
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Current Conditions
Uptown, New Orleans, Louisiana (PWS)
Updated: 5 sec ago
Mostly Cloudy
48.2 °F / 9.0 °C
Mostly Cloudy
Major concern here in Florida is the front stalling over South Florida. With abundant tropical moisture beginning to lift northbound and the slight lift with the frontal boundary, I'm concerned for possible flooding rains anywhere from Lake Okeechobee southward into the Keys
Best thing for South Florida (unless you are driving in it) is for the system to stall/slow down and "fill up" Lake O so water restrictions will not be as severe later on down the road.........
104. cchsweatherman 8:19 AM EST on March 04, 2008
Major concern here in Florida is the front stalling over South Florida. With abundant tropical moisture beginning to lift northbound and the slight lift with the frontal boundary, I'm concerned for possible flooding rains anywhere from Lake Okeechobee southward into the Keys
Best thing for South Florida (unless you are driving in it) is for the system to stall/slow down and "fill up" Lake O so water restrictions will not be as severe later on down the road.........
Too much rain at one time can do just as much harm as no rain at all. We can't take all the rain at once as it will create a flooding problem, which could lead to a major nuisance: mosquitos. It is warm enough that mosquitos could use the ponding as breeding ground. That is something many people are remise about when it comes to flooding. It can create health concerns.
Cchs i agree with everything except it is already 72Deg. and the humidty is at 78% and the sun is shining in Tampa now at 8:45am. If we continue with the sun shining you will get lift and energy needed to create some problems IMO.
Just finished taking a look at the latest CIMSS maps. One very startling observation came to my attention. There is a high amount of energy still present in the GOM. This energy was supposed to have been shot off towards the NE by now, but it has remained there and has begun to shift over Western Florida. You may be right, Tampa. There could be some problems, especially around your area. Keep alert.
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could someone send me a message explaining why 4 counties with flood watches are surrounded by counties with fire weather warnings?
We keep getting fire warnings during heavy downpours. Even with lightning that seems dumb. The antisedant moisture conditions have been fairly wet too, but someone must know something I don't. The fire weather warnings seem to end at the state line. Is there a difference between states?
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Good thought to mention rip tides/currents CCHSWeatherman -- Have a feeling some of this is going to be a bit too big and rough for me to surf, between lame horses/barnwork --I may have to wait till thursday. take care all I am off!
Good morning to you Storm. I would also like to hear your thoughts as well.
Thoughts?
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