Record early tornado season set to add more to its tally today

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 4:17 PM GMT on March 03, 2008

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March will roar in like a lion today over the Southern U.S., with another volley of strong EF2 and EF3 tornadoes possible over portions of Louisiana, Arkansas, and Mississippi. The Storm Prediction Center has placed this region under its "Moderate Risk" target today--one level below the maximum "High Risk" threat level. The powerful low pressure system responsible for today's severe weather developed over Texas and Oklahoma on Sunday, spawning at least two tornadoes and hail up to 4.25" in diameter. The huge hail was reported in Buffalo, near the Kansas border.

The intensifying low pressure system will move through Louisiana, Arkansas, and Mississippi today, dragging a cold front through those states. This front has already spawned severe thunderstorms across eastern Texas and southern Arkansas this morning, with many reports of damaging thunderstorm winds. The tornado page is a good place to track the tornadoes as they occur today, along with our severe weather page.

2008 sets early tornado season records
The year 2008 smashed the record for most January and February tornadoes, with 368. The previous record was set in 1999, with 235 January/February tornadoes. Reliable tornado records extend back to 1950. The 232 tornadoes reported in February of 2008 was a record for the month of February. Second place goes to 1971, with a relatively paltry 83 tornadoes. Each of the past three years has seen an unusually early start to tornado season (Figure 1). One would expect to see a shift in tornado activity earlier in the year in a warming climate, along with an earlier than usual drop off in activity in late spring. We can see that in both 2005 and 2006 that tornado activity dropped off much earlier than usual, and it will be interesting to see if 2008 follows a similar pattern. Note that there is a very high natural variability in tornado numbers, and the record for fewest ever January and February tornadoes was set just six years ago in 2002, when only four twisters occurred. It will be at least ten more years before we can say with any confidence that a warming climate is leading to an earlier peak in tornado season. There does seem to be a tendency for more early season tornadoes during La Niña years--four of the five years that had January/February tornado counts 75 or above were all La Niña years (1971, 1975, 1999, and 2008). The only exception was 1998, which was an El Niño year, and had 118 January/February tornadoes.


Figure 1. Tornado reports so far this year have totaled 368 for the months of January and February, by far the greatest number of tornadoes observed so early in the year. Image credit: NOAA Storm Prediction Center.

Potential South Atlantic subtropical storm fizzles
Last Friday, I mentioned the possibility of a rare subtropical storm forming the South Atlantic off the coast of Brazil. It turned out that the candidate low pressure system wrapped a lot of dry air into its center, killing any chance it had to become a subtropical storm. There is still some vigorous tropical-looking thunderstorms firing up off the coast of Brazil this morning, and it is worth continuing to watch this region for formation of a subtropical storm. A separate low pressure system in southern Brazil has brought a wide variety of severe weather to Brazil, Argentina, and Uruguay over the past few days, as documented in the metsul.com weather blog (for those of you who read Portugese). For those of you who don't, try the web page translator at http://babelfish.altavista.com/babelfish/tr.

Jeff Masters

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96. TampaSpin
12:33 PM GMT on March 04, 2008
70deg. hum. at 83% sun shining and very windy in Tampa...at 7:30am
Member Since: September 2, 2007 Posts: 179 Comments: 20448
95. TampaSpin
12:27 PM GMT on March 04, 2008
Its actually seems to be getting stronger.
Member Since: September 2, 2007 Posts: 179 Comments: 20448
94. FLWeatherFreak91
10:33 AM GMT on March 04, 2008
Looking a little threatening...

Member Since: December 1, 2006 Posts: 2 Comments: 3634
93. Ivansrvivr
6:10 AM GMT on March 04, 2008
W.Bro, what are you basing your wind prediction on? My rain ideas are based on stationary front just to our south, 2nd push of cold air moving SE thru TX/Oklahoma w/ upper level energy meeting the tail end of the stationary front in central GOM. Ample moisture to trigger rainfall before 2nd storm approaches. The Euro model is now picking up on storm#2 very similar to GFS before current storm system onset.(The various Models will come crashing into agreement after current storm exits CONUS) BUT the deciding factor will be NAO. NAO is in pos phase now, but is trending toward neutral-neg phase. If NAO goes neutral or especially negative, the storm track will shift southward and trend toward stronger systems.
With the current storm track heading so far north, I don't see a particularly strong wind event here unless storm#2 is stronger than expected.
92. HadesGodWyvern (Mod)
5:41 AM GMT on March 04, 2008
5 tornado warnings in a 30 min time period..
Member Since: May 24, 2006 Posts: 52 Comments: 46914
91. TampaSpin
4:55 AM GMT on March 04, 2008
Tornado warnings coming out so fast it is unreal........WOW
TORNADO WARNING JACKSON MS - KJAN 1053 PM CST MON MAR 3 2008
TORNADO WARNING BIRMINGHAM AL - KBMX 1051 PM CST MON MAR 3 2008
TORNADO WARNING JACKSON MS - KJAN 1046 PM CST MON MAR 3 2008
TORNADO WARNING JACKSON MS - KJAN 1027 PM CST MON MAR 3 2008
Member Since: September 2, 2007 Posts: 179 Comments: 20448
90. TampaSpin
4:50 AM GMT on March 04, 2008
BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED TORNADO WARNING NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS 1046 PM CST MON MAR 3 2008 THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN JACKSON HAS ISSUED A * TORNADO WARNING FOR... SOUTHWESTERN CLARKE COUNTY IN EAST CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI... SOUTHEASTERN JASPER COUNTY IN EAST CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI... NORTHEASTERN JONES COUNTY IN SOUTHEAST MISSISSIPPI... THIS INCLUDES THE CITY OF LAUREL...
Member Since: September 2, 2007 Posts: 179 Comments: 20448
89. TampaSpin
4:45 AM GMT on March 04, 2008
42,000ft storm tops
Member Since: September 2, 2007 Posts: 179 Comments: 20448
88. TampaSpin
4:39 AM GMT on March 04, 2008
The Vortex north of Hattisburg appears very impressive on radar.
Member Since: September 2, 2007 Posts: 179 Comments: 20448
87. TampaSpin
4:19 AM GMT on March 04, 2008
Member Since: September 2, 2007 Posts: 179 Comments: 20448
86. weatherbro
4:18 AM GMT on March 04, 2008
could be more of a wind issue then rain this weekend for Florida
Member Since: May 26, 2007 Posts: 47 Comments: 1393
85. TampaSpin
4:15 AM GMT on March 04, 2008
BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED TORNADO WARNING NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS 1014 PM CST MON MAR 3 2008 THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN JACKSON HAS ISSUED A * TORNADO WARNING FOR... SOUTHEASTERN COVINGTON COUNTY IN SOUTHEAST MISSISSIPPI... NORTHWESTERN FORREST COUNTY IN SOUTHEAST MISSISSIPPI... JONES COUNTY IN SOUTHEAST MISSISSIPPI... THIS INCLUDES THE CITIES OF...LAUREL...ELLISVILLE...
Member Since: September 2, 2007 Posts: 179 Comments: 20448
84. TampaSpin
4:15 AM GMT on March 04, 2008
Ivan sometimes more rain now just makes for more vegetation to burn later. We just need a little rain more frequent.
Member Since: September 2, 2007 Posts: 179 Comments: 20448
83. TampaSpin
4:12 AM GMT on March 04, 2008
The Subtropical Jet Stream is just south of the low pressure in Texas. If that low gets further South and taps more into the Subtropical Jet alot of energy will be available and could get real scary with Tornado's.
Member Since: September 2, 2007 Posts: 179 Comments: 20448
82. Ivansrvivr
4:04 AM GMT on March 04, 2008
The lack of southerly component to the parent low's track makes the trailing front much more likely to stall over the extreme S.Fl peninsula or Fl straits. The 2nd storm will form along stalled front and move N.E. That is the time that severe weather would be most likely over The southern half of FL. 2 days of stalled front followed by the 2nd storm could be a major blessing for Lake O or be a major flood issue. This will be a feast or famine deal like they always are in Southern Florida during winter. Let's hope for a prolonged widespread steady rain event over the lake and points north. Going into March there won't be many more opportunities for rain here until the rainy season starts.
81. TampaSpin
3:55 AM GMT on March 04, 2008
Meridian needs to be ready. That other cell is holding together with a vortex signature apparent.
Member Since: September 2, 2007 Posts: 179 Comments: 20448
80. TampaSpin
3:52 AM GMT on March 04, 2008
There are 2 possible vortex's that is easily visible on radar. ONe appears due west of Hattisburg heading NE.
Member Since: September 2, 2007 Posts: 179 Comments: 20448
79. TampaSpin
3:47 AM GMT on March 04, 2008
BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED TORNADO WARNING NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS 945 PM CST MON MAR 3 2008 THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN JACKSON HAS ISSUED A * TORNADO WARNING FOR... SOUTHEASTERN JEFFERSON DAVIS COUNTY IN SOUTH CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI... NORTHEASTERN MARION COUNTY IN SOUTH CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI... SOUTHEASTERN COVINGTON COUNTY IN SOUTHEAST MISSISSIPPI... NORTHWESTERN FORREST COUNTY IN SOUTHEAST MISSISSIPPI... SOUTHWESTERN JONES COUNTY IN SOUTHEAST MISSISSIPPI... NORTHWESTERN LAMAR COUNTY IN SOUTHEAST MISSISSIPPI... * UNTIL 1015 PM CST * AT 945 PM CST...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE METEOROLOGISTS DETECTED A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A TORNADO NEAR IMPROVE... OR 11 MILES EAST OF COLUMBIA...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 50 MPH. * THE TORNADO WILL BE NEAR... 6 MILES SOUTHEAST OF MELBA BY 950 PM CST... SUMRALL BY 955 PM CST... SANFORD BY 1005 PM CST... MOSELLE BY 1010 PM CST...
Member Since: September 2, 2007 Posts: 179 Comments: 20448
78. Patrap
3:44 AM GMT on March 04, 2008
The Line is almost to the Metro NOLA area..

NEXRAD Radar
New Orleans Base Reflectivity 0.50 Degree Elevation Range 124 NMI Link
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 428 Comments: 129844
77. TampaSpin
3:43 AM GMT on March 04, 2008
Hattisburg needs to look out....
Member Since: September 2, 2007 Posts: 179 Comments: 20448
76. TampaSpin
3:31 AM GMT on March 04, 2008
This looks very dangerous.

Member Since: September 2, 2007 Posts: 179 Comments: 20448
75. TampaSpin
3:25 AM GMT on March 04, 2008
Pat that is one bad line of storms....you can easlily see vorticies on radar.
Member Since: September 2, 2007 Posts: 179 Comments: 20448
74. Patrap
3:20 AM GMT on March 04, 2008
Cell Z-6 bearin toward Houma,LA...
NEXRAD Radar
New Orleans Base Reflectivity 0.50 Degree Elevation Range 124 NMI
Link
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 428 Comments: 129844
73. TampaSpin
3:19 AM GMT on March 04, 2008
BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED TORNADO WARNING NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA 915 PM CST MON MAR 3 2008 THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN NEW ORLEANS HAS ISSUED A * TORNADO WARNING FOR... SOUTHEASTERN WALTHALL COUNTY IN SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI...
Member Since: September 2, 2007 Posts: 179 Comments: 20448
72. weathermanwannabe
1:52 AM GMT on March 04, 2008
That low is tracking due East across the top half of Texas right now, as opposed to digging SE, so I wonder if the severe weather component will track further North and "scrape" the Florida Panhandle in the early morning; but if the line stays intact, it will be rough ride for Central MS/AL/GA over the next 10 hours.......
Member Since: August 8, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 9402
71. NorthxCakalaky
1:38 AM GMT on March 04, 2008
6:32pm Emergency Alert Cancelled
The Administration, in consultation with Appalachian State University police and Boone police, have returned the campus to a normal status. Students and personnel remaining on campus may leave with caution.

Classes for the evening of March 3, 2008 remain cancelled, classes for March 4, 2008 will be held as usual. All personnel should report to work March 4 as scheduled.

No further sightings of the suspect have been reported, but university and Boone police will be on alert through the evening and anyone seeing a suspicious person or activities should call 262-8000 or 911.
www.emergency.appstate.edu

more on this - Link
70. CybrTeddy
1:36 AM GMT on March 04, 2008
-plays the song "Its the End of the World as we know it"- Alot of Twisters going on this year, pray for those whom are in there path.
Member Since: July 8, 2005 Posts: 259 Comments: 24575
69. Ivansrvivr
12:45 AM GMT on March 04, 2008
If Spock would stop flapping those ears of his this storm system might ease up a bit.
68. Patrap
12:13 AM GMT on March 04, 2008
sandcrab is on duty as the Jackson County,Miss EOC Manager..

Butch,Ya got ya ears on?
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 428 Comments: 129844
65. Patrap
11:58 PM GMT on March 03, 2008
THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN NEW ORLEANS HAS ISSUED A
* TORNADO WARNING FOR... WALTHALL COUNTY IN SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI...

* UNTIL 630 PM CST

* AT 548 PM CST...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A TORNADO 9 MILES SOUTHWEST OF TYLERTOWN...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 35 MPH.

* THE TORNADO WILL BE NEAR...
TYLERTOWN BY 605 PM CST...
7 MILES NORTHWEST OF DEXTER BY 610 PM CST... SALEM BY 615 PM CST...
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 428 Comments: 129844
64. Patrap
11:55 PM GMT on March 03, 2008
New TVS North Shore...Near Tylertown,Miss.
Link
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 428 Comments: 129844
63. ShenValleyFlyFish
11:45 PM GMT on March 03, 2008
57. NorthxCakalaky 5:42 PM EST on March 03, 2008
Appalachian State University in north-west N.C is on lock down.A gunman was spotted on campus.Tonight classes closed.


Give me a break we're turning into our own worst enemies.
Member Since: September 9, 2007 Posts: 36 Comments: 4687
61. atmoaggie
11:38 PM GMT on March 03, 2008
TORNADO WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
533 PM CST MON MAR 3 2008

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN JACKSON HAS ISSUED A

* TORNADO WARNING FOR...
WEST CENTRAL HOLMES COUNTY IN CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI...
THIS INCLUDES THE CITY OF THORNTON...
HUMPHREYS COUNTY IN CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI...
THIS INCLUDES THE CITY OF BELZONI...
NORTHWESTERN YAZOO COUNTY IN CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI...
EASTERN SHARKEY COUNTY IN WEST CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI...

* UNTIL 630 PM CST

* AT 533 PM CST...TRAINED WEATHER SPOTTERS REPORTED A TORNADO NEAR
HOLLY BLUFF...OR 8 MILES SOUTHEAST OF ROLLING FORK...MOVING
NORTHEAST AT 40 MPH.

* THE TORNADO WILL BE NEAR...
MIDNIGHT BY 555 PM CST...
BELZONI BY 605 PM CST...
7 MILES NORTHWEST OF THORNTON BY 610 PM CST...

HEAVY RAINFALL MAY OBSCURE THIS TORNADO. TAKE COVER NOW! IF YOU WAIT
TO SEE OR HEAR IT COMING...IT MAY BE TOO LATE TO GET TO A SAFE PLACE.
Member Since: August 16, 2007 Posts: 6 Comments: 12463
60. atmoaggie
11:35 PM GMT on March 03, 2008
This is one heckuva cell. How can that not be a large nado??

Member Since: August 16, 2007 Posts: 6 Comments: 12463
58. TerraNova
11:23 PM GMT on March 03, 2008
It looks to me like the storm located just east of Greensburg, Louisiana/North of Roseland LA may have multiple vortices (both located roughly a mile from eachother, the one closest to Greensburg being the strongest so far, the other is now weakening) judging from the program i'm running. In either case, the storm is showing a very strong rotation on Storm Relative doppler:

Member Since: July 30, 2007 Posts: 76 Comments: 4063
57. NorthxCakalaky
10:42 PM GMT on March 03, 2008
Appalachian State University in north-west N.C is on lock down.A gunman was spotted on campus.Tonight classes closed.


56. HadesGodWyvern (Mod)
10:40 PM GMT on March 03, 2008
JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY
============================================

Earthquake Information
Issued at 23:41 JST 03 Mar 2008

23:11 JST 03 Mar 2008
Latitude 13.5N
Longitude 125.6E
Depth 30km
Magnitude 6.9
Region Name PHILIPPINES REGION
Member Since: May 24, 2006 Posts: 52 Comments: 46914
55. IKE
10:38 PM GMT on March 03, 2008
431 PM CST Mon Mar 3 2008


...A Tornado Warning remains in effect until 500 PM CST for west
central Lawrence and Lincoln counties...

At 431 PM CST...National Weather Service meteorologists continued to
track a tornado. This tornado was located 6 miles southeast of
Center Point...or 9 miles north of McComb...moving northeast at 35
mph.

Damage has already been reported with storm in Amite County!


The tornado will be near...
Bogue Chitto and 8 miles southeast of West Lincoln by 440 PM CST...
Enterprise and 9 miles northwest of Ruth by 445 PM CST...
Brookhaven and 6 miles northwest of East Lincoln by 455 PM CST...

Member Since: June 9, 2005 Posts: 23 Comments: 37860
54. atmoaggie
10:15 PM GMT on March 03, 2008
TORNADO WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
407 PM CST MON MAR 3 2008

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN NEW ORLEANS HAS ISSUED A

* TORNADO WARNING FOR...
NORTHERN PIKE COUNTY IN SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI...
THIS INCLUDES THE CITY OF MCCOMB...

* UNTIL 430 PM CST

* AT 401 PM CST...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A TORNADO 17 MILES WEST OF
MCCOMB...OR NEAR LIBERTY...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 30 MPH.

* THE TORNADO WILL BE NEAR...
7 MILES NORTHWEST OF MCCOMB BY 425 PM CST...
SUMMIT BY 430 PM CST...
Member Since: August 16, 2007 Posts: 6 Comments: 12463
53. Patrap
10:11 PM GMT on March 03, 2008
Some tops peaking over 60K..

NEXRAD Radar
New Orleans Echo Tops Range 124 NMI

Link
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 428 Comments: 129844
52. Patrap
10:09 PM GMT on March 03, 2008
H-9 one to watch.

NEXRAD Radar
New Orleans Base Reflectivity 0.50 Degree Elevation Range 124 NMI
Link
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 428 Comments: 129844
51. atmoaggie
10:08 PM GMT on March 03, 2008
TORNADO WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
403 PM CST MON MAR 3 2008

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN JACKSON HAS ISSUED A

* TORNADO WARNING FOR...
WEST CENTRAL LAWRENCE COUNTY IN SOUTH CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI...
LINCOLN COUNTY IN SOUTH CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI...
THIS INCLUDES THE CITY OF BROOKHAVEN...
SOUTHEASTERN FRANKLIN COUNTY IN SOUTHWEST MISSISSIPPI...

* UNTIL 500 PM CST

* AT 403 PM CST...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE METEOROLOGISTS DETECTED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A TORNADO 16 MILES SOUTH
OF CENTER POINT...OR 15 MILES WEST OF MCCOMB...MOVING NORTHEAST AT
40 MPH.

* THE TORNADO WILL BE NEAR...
6 MILES SOUTHEAST OF CENTER POINT BY 420 PM CST...
8 MILES SOUTHEAST OF WEST LINCOLN BY 430 PM CST...
BOGUE CHITTO AND 8 MILES NORTHWEST OF RUTH BY 435 PM CST...
ENTERPRISE BY 440 PM CST...
EAST LINCOLN AND 7 MILES SOUTHEAST OF BROOKHAVEN BY 445 PM CST...

Member Since: August 16, 2007 Posts: 6 Comments: 12463
50. atmoaggie
10:04 PM GMT on March 03, 2008
Here comes your first taste, Pat:

Member Since: August 16, 2007 Posts: 6 Comments: 12463
49. atmoaggie
9:44 PM GMT on March 03, 2008
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
342 PM CST MON MAR 3 2008

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN NEW ORLEANS HAS ISSUED A

* TORNADO WARNING FOR...
AMITE COUNTY IN SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI...
THIS INCLUDES THE CITY OF LIBERTY...

* UNTIL 415 PM CST

* AT 340 PM CST...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A TORNADO 8 MILES
SOUTHWEST OF LIBERTY...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 40 MPH.

* THE TORNADO WILL BE NEAR...
LIBERTY BY 350 PM CST...
SMITHDALE BY 410 PM CST...

Member Since: August 16, 2007 Posts: 6 Comments: 12463
47. scwindsaloft
3:51 PM EST on March 03, 2008
interesting....

SPC AC 031730

DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1130 AM CST MON MAR 03 2008

VALID 041200Z - 051200Z

...SERN CONUS TO MID ATLANTIC REGION...
ALTHOUGH A FEW UNCERTAINTIES REMAIN...POTENTIAL IS INCREASING FOR
ORGANIZED DAMAGING WIND EVENT ESPECIALLY FROM SRN/CENTRAL GA NEWD
ALONG PIEDMONT AND COASTAL PLAIN OF CAROLINAS. TORNADOES ALSO ARE A
GROWING CONCERN. CURRENT 45% TOTAL SVR PROBABILITIES FALL JUST
SHORT OF CRITERIA FOR CATEGORICAL MDT RISK. HOWEVER...UPGRADE MAY
BE NEEDED TO MDT RISK FOR UPCOMING DAY-1 OUTLOOKS VALID THIS PERIOD.
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46. MisterPerfect
8:37 PM GMT on March 03, 2008
Not neccessarily. Sticking your arms in an industrial fan would be crazy.




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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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