Winter rains ease Southeast U.S. drought; Brazilian storm could go subtropical

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 5:59 PM GMT on February 29, 2008

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The winter of 2007-2008 is in the books, as today marks the last day of meteorological winter (December, January, and February). Winter rains have eased the drought gripping the Southeast U.S., where the area covered by extreme to exceptional drought has shrunk by about 50% since the beginning of the year (Figure 1). Some regions of southern Georgia and southern Alabama, where winter rains have been more than six inches above average (Figure 2), are no longer suffering drought conditions at all.


Figure 1. Drought categories for the Southeast U.S. from December 25, 2007, and February 28, 2007. Image credit: U.S. Drought Monitor.

However, A large swath of the Southeast U.S., including Atlanta, Charlotte, and Huntsville, have received 1-4 inches of precipitation below usual for this time of year. The shortfall is particularly acute in northern Alabama, where Huntsville has received only 6.77" this year, compared to the normal 10.47". The below average rains during this winter rainy season bode ill for the summer, when drought conditions could easily return to last year's extreme levels. The Southeast badly needs one or two landfalling tropical storms or hurricanes in 2008 to help break the drought.

Central Florida surrounding Lake Okeechobee is also suffering from below average rains this winter. The lake, which reached its all-time low water mark of 8.82 feet on July 2, 2007, has risen to 10.02 feet, but this is still a record low for this time of year. The surface area of the lake has shrunk to about 2/3 of normal, and the water level is more than four feet below normal. Part of the reason for the record low lake levels is the fact that the lake was deliberately drawn down before the 2006 hurricane season, in anticipation of another very active hurricane season.


Figure 2. Departure of precipitation from average for January and February 2008. Image credit: NOAA Advanced Hydrologic Prediction Service.

The forecast
The short-range rainfall forecast is good for the Southeast, with significant rainstorms possible both Tuesday and Thursday. The longer range three-month forecast calls for a continuation of below average precipitation for the spring season, thanks to the continued presence of a strong La Niña event in the Equatorial East Pacific. La Niña events usually deflect the jet stream into a pattern that takes the Southeast U.S. out of the the usual storm track needed to bring typical spring rains. However, for the summer months of June, July, and August, NOAA's CFS Climate Forecast System Model is predicting a return to normal levels of rainfall over the Southeast U.S.

Severe weather outbreak coming on Monday
A strong low pressure system is forecast to develop over Texas on Sunday, bringing a slight chance of severe weather to eastern Texas Sunday afternoon. By Monday afternoon, the storm is expected to track northeastwards over the Ohio Valley, dragging a strong cold front across the south. A significant severe weather outbreak is possible Monday afternoon in advance of this cold front.

Interesting South Atlantic storm could become subtropical
An extratropical storm centered near 31S 30W, a few hundred miles east of the Brazil-Uruguay border, has begun to acquire subtropical characteristics and could become a subtropical storm this weekend. The storm is not expected to hit land. NASA/MSFC has a clickable satellite image of Southern Hemisphere one can use to zoom in on the storm. An ASCAT pass at 5:29am EST this morning showed winds of 50 mph near the center of the storm. Water temperatures are about 26°C, which is right at the boundary where tropical storm formation can occur. Subtropical and tropical storms are quite rare in the South Atlantic. I'll update this section of the blog through the weekend if the storm develops. There is no naming system in place to name any tropical or subtropical storm that may form in the South Atlantic. It would be up to the World Meteorological Organization (WMO) to institute such a scheme. The last time I checked into this, they had no plans to consider a naming system. Here's nice MODIS image of the storm from 15:30 GMT today.



Figure 3. Visible satellite image of extratropical low off the coast of Brazil that is beginning to acquire some subtropical characteristics. Image credit: NASA/MSFC.

Jeff Masters

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110. cchsweatherman
1:11 PM EST on March 01, 2008
109. hurricane23 12:53 PM EST on March 01, 2008
108. weatherbro 12:51 PM EST on March 01, 2008
Any chance this possible historic superstorm could surpass '93?

Dont think so my friend.The threat for any real severe weather atleast for southeast florida is not there next week.Those type of events are rare.


Like Storm and I have repeatedly said, it cannot be ruled out since it depends upon how far south the low develops. If it develops over the SE, then South Florida may get some significant weather coming to them by late in the week into the weekend. Just saying that it can't be ruled out since even the SPC and NWS have very little, if any handle, on this future storm.
Member Since: April 14, 2007 Posts: 8 Comments: 5169
109. hurricane23
12:52 PM EST on March 01, 2008
108. weatherbro 12:51 PM EST on March 01, 2008
Any chance this possible historic superstorm could surpass '93?

Dont think so my friend.The threat for any real severe weather atleast for southeast florida is not there next week.Those type of events are rare.
Member Since: May 14, 2006 Posts: 8 Comments: 13787
108. weatherbro
5:48 PM GMT on March 01, 2008
Any chance this possible historic superstorm could surpass '93 next weekend?
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107. hurricane23
12:46 PM EST on March 01, 2008
Almost forgot i got some great news from a friend with the hurricanehunters and we were chatting about the great new addition to the planes which now carry SFMR which will be a great addtion.Cant wait to see some results this season.Most planes if not all carry the new instruments.For more on this click Here.
Member Since: May 14, 2006 Posts: 8 Comments: 13787
106. hurricane23
12:18 PM EST on March 01, 2008
I think its important to remember that a strong pre-season La Nina has never resulted in a high activity storm season.The MDR region is quite cool right but that could change through the next 6 months.Iam thinking similar areas could very well be affected once again.My numbers are 13/7/3.

Only takes one so preps should always be completed come june1.

www.AdriansWeather.com
Member Since: May 14, 2006 Posts: 8 Comments: 13787
105. Levi32
8:16 AM AKST on March 01, 2008
That's great baha, look forward to seeing it when you're done. Google Earth also has incredible storm-tracking ability during the hurricane season, I used it a lot last year to make neat graphics.
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104. BahaHurican
12:11 PM EST on March 01, 2008
102. Levi32 12:10 PM EST on March 01, 2008
Anyway here's the link...you gotta do one decade at a time and then you can put them all in one folder in Google Earth.


Thanks, Levi. I really appreciate the help. I bookmarked your link so I can pull out what I need. I'm hoping I can put La Nina and El Nino storms that affected the Bahamas into different folders. Once I get done with it, I'll post what I did.
Member Since: October 25, 2005 Posts: 19 Comments: 22101
103. BahaHurican
11:52 AM EST on March 01, 2008
Pat, Resize, please!
Member Since: October 25, 2005 Posts: 19 Comments: 22101
102. Levi32
8:08 AM AKST on March 01, 2008
Anyway here's the link...you gotta do one decade at a time and then you can put them all in one folder in Google Earth.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
101. Patrap
10:55 AM CST on March 01, 2008
Tropical Cyclone Tracker ..This viewer is an interactive track of every Atlantic Tropical Cyclone and Hurricane since 1950. To view a specific hurricane, select a year from the menu
Link
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 424 Comments: 128278
100. Levi32
7:53 AM AKST on March 01, 2008
Oh I love using Google Earth.....I plot tracks all the time...I have a historical database of hurricane tracks since 1851 that I can plot on there. I can give you the file for it if you have google earth.
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99. BahaHurican
10:22 AM EST on March 01, 2008
Question:

Has anybody used Google Earth to plot hurricane tracks? I want to use it for a presentation which demonstrates topographical effects on tropical systems, but am not sure exactly how to go about it.
Member Since: October 25, 2005 Posts: 19 Comments: 22101
98. Patrap
10:38 AM CST on March 01, 2008



Rare South Atlantic Tropical Cyclone

Brazillian Hurricane

During its daytime overpass of the southeast coast of Brazil on March 26, 2004, the Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) on the Terra satellite captured this surprising sight: a tropical cyclone.
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 424 Comments: 128278
97. Tazmanian
8:29 AM PST on March 01, 2008
looks oh is back with us i think you all re call Ophelia from 2005 dont you? well Ophelia is back but this time it in the Southern Hem
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96. cchsweatherman
11:18 AM EST on March 01, 2008
92. StormW 11:05 AM EST on March 01, 2008
87. cchsweatherman 10:55 AM EST on March 01, 2008
Storm,
What is your current thinking for Florida with this next storm? It looks like it all depends upon where that low develops. This could get a bit tricky to forecast.


My thoughts exactly cch. Have to see how things start shaping up with that low. Skew-T will be helpful that morning.


95. StormW 11:14 AM EST on March 01, 2008
cchsweatherman,
How far along are you in your meteorological studies?

I had been attending college to go for my general A.A., then transfer and go for my B.S. in MET., but had to hang it up until things straighten out financially and stuff. Had just gotten into pre-calculus when I had to hang it up. Did good though at the last, with an A in college algebra, and a 3.7 GPA.


Just got into the second semester of my Freshman year. Right now, I'm at BCC taking the classes necessary to gain my AA before transferring out after next year to FIU where I will begin studying meteorology. At the same time, I'll have an internship at NBC6 working with a good friend in John Gerard. Thank God for the Bright Futures Scholarship. Right now, I'm at a 3.25 GPA.

Referring back to the first comment I pasted in, I've never heard of the Skew-T. What is that and could you provide a link to it? Thanks.
Member Since: April 14, 2007 Posts: 8 Comments: 5169
94. Patrap
10:10 AM CST on March 01, 2008
Volusia out of free weather radios

Staff Report:

Volusia County residents who want weather warning radios will have to buy them, at least for awhile.

County officials announced late Friday that residents had picked up the last of 1,000 free weather radios handed out at the 16 branches of the county library system.

Story:Link


Dont be caught un-aware when it counts most.

NOAA Alert Weather Radio's: Link
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 424 Comments: 128278
91. TerraNova
4:02 PM GMT on March 01, 2008
...SVR WEATHER POSSIBLE ACROSS THE SERN STATES...NRN/CNTRL FL AND
THE ERN CAROLINAS ON TUESDAY...

...DISCUSSION...
UPR LOW EXPECTED TO BE OVER THE MID-SOUTH EARLY ON TUE WILL EJECT
NEWD AND PHASE WITH THE POLAR BRANCH OVER THE LWR GRTLKS REGION BY
WED. ATTENDANT SFC LOW WILL SUBSEQUENTLY DEEPEN AS IT MOVES FROM
MIDDLE TN EARLY TUE AND INTO NEW ENGLAND BY WED NIGHT. A COLD FRONT
WILL SWEEP SEWD TO THE S OF THE LOW...REACHING THE ERN SEABOARD AND
CNTRL FL TUE NIGHT.

A SQUALL LINE IS EXPECTED TO ONGOING ALONG/AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT
ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE DEEP SOUTH EARLY ON TUESDAY. STRONG SLY LLJ
WILL CONTINUE TO TRANSLATE EWD INTO THE SERN STATES THROUGH THE
DAY...BUT THEN BEGIN TO MIGRATE NWD UP THE ATLC SEABOARD BY EVENING
AS THE PRIMARY CYCLONE EJECTS NEWD. GULF AND ATLC MOISTURE SHOULD
ADVECT INTO FL...MUCH OF GA AND THE ERN PARTS OF THE CAROLINAS...
LIKELY MAINTAINING THE SQUALL LINE. MAGNITUDE OF LOW/MID-LVL FLOW
WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR BOWS AND SUPERCELL STRUCTURES...PARTICULARLY
ACROSS EXTREME ERN AL INTO GA AND MUCH OF NRN FL THROUGH LATE AFTN.
THE SQUALL LINE WILL PROBABLY WEAKEN WITH NRN EXTENT DUE TO LESS
INSTABILITY...AND WITH SRN EXTENT LATE IN THE AFTN AS OVERALL MASS
CONVERGENCE/SHEAR DIMINISH.

OTHERWISE...LATEST ECMWF/GFS ARE QUITE VARIED ON THE HANDLING OF THE
NEXT TROUGH EXPECTED TO MOVE TOWARD THE PLAINS IN THE WED-FRI TIME
FRAME. AT LEAST HALF OF THE GEFS PERTURBATIONS SUPPORT THE ECMWF
IDEA OF CLOSING OFF ANOTHER LOW AND DROPPING IT SWD INTO MEXICO.
THIS IS IN CONTRAST TO THE MORE PROGRESSIVE/STRONGER GFS. AT THIS
POINT IN TIME...GIVEN POOR MODEL PREDICTABILITY...THE REMAINDER OF
THE EXTENDED PERIOD SVR RISKS ARE UNCERTAIN.
Member Since: July 30, 2007 Posts: 76 Comments: 4063
90. TerraNova
4:00 PM GMT on March 01, 2008
I may be wrong, but I am favoring the CMC right now, which seems like the GFS may have come more inline with it. There should be winter weather, but if the system is further inland, the winter wx will be toward the middle of the U.S. and I think the Great Lakes, and rain event for the NE. More of a eastward shift will bring more winter wx towards the NE (NorthEast).

Thanks Storm.
Member Since: July 30, 2007 Posts: 76 Comments: 4063
89. Patrap
9:58 AM CST on March 01, 2008
Looks like a Bad severe threat StormW. They are especially vigilante as to Monday here since there are many still in FEMA trailers.

Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 424 Comments: 128278
88. cchsweatherman
10:55 AM EST on March 01, 2008
For Tuesday here in South Florida, my forecast calls for showers and strong storms likely with a 60% rain chance. Does that seem reasonable?
Member Since: April 14, 2007 Posts: 8 Comments: 5169
87. cchsweatherman
10:53 AM EST on March 01, 2008
Storm,
What is your current thinking for Florida with this next storm? It looks like it all depends upon where that low develops. This could get a bit tricky to forecast.
Member Since: April 14, 2007 Posts: 8 Comments: 5169
85. Patrap
9:51 AM CST on March 01, 2008
.
NWS New Orleans this morning.

Factors remain in place for our severe weather event Monday into
Monday night. Lifted indices around -5...convective available potential energy 1500 or
more...helicities 300-600...60 knot h850 jet and an upper system in
the process of closing off and going negatively tilted as it moves
through the area. While main Mode of convection will be a squall
line with attendant damaging winds...any convection that develops
ahead of the line will have the potential to become supercellular
and tornadic. Best estimate on timing right now would have squall
line crossing Lake Pontchartrain around 6 PM Monday evening.
Precipitable water values above 1.50 inches...so heavy rain also
in the equation. No major changes to information going out in severe weather potential statement.
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 424 Comments: 128278
83. cchsweatherman
10:26 AM EST on March 01, 2008
Just following up with Dr. Master's update, here is the latest visible of the possible subtropical storm off South America. Looks quite impressive.

img src="Photobucket" alt="" />
Member Since: April 14, 2007 Posts: 8 Comments: 5169
82. TerraNova
3:22 PM GMT on March 01, 2008
The 06z GFS has the Saturday storm developing off the coast of NC and moving northeast parallel to the US east coast, well offshore Cape Cod. On the other hand, the 00z GFS had the storm well inland and a bit stronger than what it currently predicts.

The 00z ECMWF (which I think has been more realiable in the long range so far) has the system farther inland than the GFS; with the center near Ohio or western PA at 00 UTC on March 8th.

Either way, would the cold air be in place to fuel a winter weather type event? From what ive noticed the models tend to have a bias towards colder air in the upper levels this far out in time.
Member Since: July 30, 2007 Posts: 76 Comments: 4063
81. cchsweatherman
9:44 AM EST on March 01, 2008
Good morning all!

Currently, the NAM has cyclogenesis occuring over Northern Alabama and Northern Georiga. Shows quite a powerful low developing with a strong trailing front come late Monday into Tuesday sweeping through the Southeast bringing widespread heavy rains to the worst drought areas.

It seems like the GFS has become less aggressive with the impending storm for late Monday and Tuesday as the forecasted low does not bomb out like some earlier runs had indicated, although it still shows very active weather over the Southeast and especially into Florida with what appears to be a bonafide squall line. Will have to watch for consistency with the GFS model as the forecasted strength of this storm has fluctuated over the past few days.

Like Ivansrvivr noted last night, the next storm that appears on the forecast models does have some striking resemblance to the '93 Super Storm (see links provided by other bloggers above for more info on this event). From my analysis, it indicates that tropical cyclogenesis will occur in the Central GOM as a strengthening frontal system dives down into the Southeast. The front draws up the tropical low and merge creating massive instability and abundant tropical moisture. This could set off a historic severe weather outbreak. It will all deal with timing. The models showing this next storm that will follow Monday and Tuesday's storm is forecasted to move into the SE sometime next weekend into early the following week.

As I have stated several times before, I do not place total reliance on the computer models since they have been proven to change quite often, but I must take them into consideration when forecasting.

Does anyone have any analysis to offer on these two potential severe storms?
Member Since: April 14, 2007 Posts: 8 Comments: 5169
80. BahaHurican
9:40 AM EST on March 01, 2008
Morning everybody.

Somebody please tell me why the cold fronts always go through here on the weekends . . . :o)

I'm interested in how far south this latest front will actually make it. It seems that the jet is consistently pulling the low pressure centres sharply north as the fronts cross the east coast. As a result the boundary sometimes slides off to the north instead of progressing eastward over the central and southern Bahamas.
Member Since: October 25, 2005 Posts: 19 Comments: 22101
79. sporteguy03
2:26 PM GMT on March 01, 2008
Dr.Masters,
Thank you for the inspiring update.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
77. lindenii
2:09 PM GMT on March 01, 2008
Funny how Dr. M can mindlessly justify destroying the Everglades with the hysterical draw down of Lake Okeechobee. South Florida continues to be the victim of the Alarmists who justify habitat destruction all so that global warming can be given more believeability.

It has been nearly a month sine the NOAA article mentioned earlier...why hasn't the good doctor had even so much as a comment.

I watched the last cold front visit us here in South Florida and I couldn't help notice that The Weather Channel and Intellicast were forcasting low temps which were, on average, 6 degrees warmer than the same predictions at WUnderground. Guess who was right on? It wasn't WUnderground.

That got me to thinking and I finally realized the root of the discrepency. WUnderground is shamelessly in the Global Warming camp and the glasses through which they see the world are shaded toward that mentality.

Alarmists and their mindset are setting the science of weather observation and predicition back at least fifty years. Time to go back to unbiased scientific observation and analysis.
76. lindenii
1:57 PM GMT on March 01, 2008
Goldstein: A big blow to Al Gore
By LORRIE GOLDSTEIN -- Sun Media

Al Gore won't like this. One of the world's leading agencies monitoring climate change says there's no link between global warming and the frequency or severity of hurricanes hitting the United States over the past century.

Scientists affiliated with the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) released a report last week assessing 105 years of hurricane activity in the U.S., from 1900 to 2005.

They conclude "economic damages from hurricanes have increased in the U.S. over time due to greater population, infrastructure and wealth on the U.S. coastlines, and not (due) to any spike in the number or intensity of hurricanes."

"There is nothing in the U.S. hurricane damage record that indicates global warming has caused a significant increase in destruction along our coasts," said Chris Landsea, science and operations officer of the NOAA's National Hurricane Center in Miami, one of six authors of the study, published Feb. 1, in Natural Hazards Review.

Claims that damages caused by hurricanes are rising exponentially due to the influence of global warming failed to take into account rapidly increasing coastal populations, denser housing, and the huge rise in coastal land values over time, the study said.

Contrary to conventional wisdom that Hurricane Katrina, which struck New Orleans in 2005, was the most destructive ever to hit the U.S., once these factors are considered, the Great Miami Hurricane of 1926 caused almost twice as much damage as Katrina -- $157 billion compared to $81 billion.

***************

New name for the Global warming/climate change gang...

Alarmists
74. Weather456
8:32 AM AST on March 01, 2008
davidw221,

here's a GFS Model run of the storm for sat 8 mar 2008. The storm is depicted right west of New York City, NY.

Member Since: July 24, 2005 Posts: 407 Comments: 19076
73. davidw221
11:15 AM GMT on March 01, 2008
Folks, help me out, I've looked at the NAM and the GFS, and those models don't show any storms along the Atlantic coast this weekend, is there something I don't know or see?
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72. Weather456
5:22 AM AST on March 01, 2008
Good saturday morning to all....


....SYNOPSIS....

GULF OF MEXICO/NORTHWEST ATLANTIC OCEAN WEST OF 50W....

A frontal boundary extends from Central Texas at 31N/100W across the Southern United States to the Atlantic Corridor near 38N/80W. Scattered showers are within 90 nm of the front. Meanwhile, upper level westerly flow is advecting upper level moisture with embedded scattered showers across the Gulf north of 25N from Texas to the Southeastern United States. At the surface, a weakening high pressure system is situated in the vicinity of Northern Florida while a 1010 mb surface low is stationed over Western Mexico at 22N/102W. The pressure gradient between these two features is producing an easterly flow of 10-20 knots over the Gulf and seas of 5-6 ft...east of 90W...and 6-8 ft...west of 90W. This onshore flow is also lifting along the Sierra Madre Mountains of Mexico producing broken to overcast skies and showers from about 17N to 27N between 93W and 101W.

Multilayer cloudiness and showers is seen across the Atlantic west of 70W. This activity is associated mid-upper level moisture being advected from the Gulf across the Southeast United States/Florida and into Western Atlantic...above cold air high pressure stratocumulus clouds. Further east, a frontal boundary has stalled out between the Southeastern end of Cuba and a 1021 mb low near 34N/45W. Broken to overcast cloudiness and light to moderate showers are within 100 nm of the front* north of Tropic of Cancer.

CENTRAL AMERICA AND THE CARIBBEAN REGION....

The stationary front also extends into the Caribbean from Cuba to 19N/85W. The front is embedded in a fair amount of mid-level dry air and significant convection is limited to widely scattered low clouds. Meanwhile, the surface pressure gradient has tighten across the Caribbean this morning with trades northeasterly at 10-25 knots generating swells of 6-8 ft everywhere and 11 ft swells along the Colombian Coast/SW Caribbean. As the frontal boundary weakens north of the region, a ridge will begin to build in further increasing trades and seas across most of the region east of 80W. The trades are also bringing widespread low level moisture from the Atlantic into the Caribbean in the form of patches of shallow cloudiness/showers...across the Lesser Antilles, parts of Northern South America, Jamaica and the Central American terrain.

by W456

*From ship reports.
Member Since: July 24, 2005 Posts: 407 Comments: 19076
71. Ivansrvivr
3:49 AM GMT on March 01, 2008
CC, you know how skeptical I am about dissipating frontal systems over the Fl Peninsula, but both these upcoming storms will have have parent lows far enough south to give us some action unless the track changes drastically from the current models. JUst something to keep an eye on and hope for 3-5 inch rains widespread over the entire peninsula.
70. cchsweatherman
10:37 PM EST on February 29, 2008
Don't worry Ivansrvivr, I'll be watching these two storms very closely since the model output worries me. Good night all.
Member Since: April 14, 2007 Posts: 8 Comments: 5169
69. Ivansrvivr
2:52 AM GMT on March 01, 2008
CC and others, don't let your guard down toward the mon-tues storm system. It has potential to be dangerous severe wx situation too.
68. hurricane23
9:52 PM EST on February 29, 2008
Those type of events are indeed rare.
Member Since: May 14, 2006 Posts: 8 Comments: 13787
67. Ivansrvivr
2:51 AM GMT on March 01, 2008
The seabreezes would trigger morning or afternoon t-storms regardless.
66. Ivansrvivr
2:42 AM GMT on March 01, 2008
My page on the 93 s.s is hardwired into my brain. I saw the snow side and the squall side. I got hail damage on my car, and have a photo at the Al Fl border w/ 2 inches of snow on the ground. that was an amazing adventure, as intense as any hurricane, and in many ways worse.
65. weatherbro
10:52 PM GMT on February 29, 2008
Imagine if Florida's rainy season never came. Instead a powerful ridge sits directly above us.

Instead of the typical hot humid afternoon thunderstorm scenario you get triple digit heat with northerly continental winds under sunny skies. From June till early Oct.

The low humidity would would be welcomed except the wildfire threat.
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64. hurricane23
9:37 PM EST on February 29, 2008
Here's my page on the 93 superstorm see here.
Member Since: May 14, 2006 Posts: 8 Comments: 13787
63. HIEXPRESS
8:48 PM EST on February 29, 2008
179. HIEXPRESS 10:14 AM EST on January 20, 2008
On this page:
http://australiasevereweather.com/cyclones/2004/summ0403.htm
Scroll down & revisit the unofficially named South Atlantic tropical cyclone Catarina in 2004. Could it happen again? Sure. When?
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
62. Ivansrvivr
1:43 AM GMT on March 01, 2008
I drove through the teeth of that monster. That's when I realized that wx storms can be as strong as hurricanes. The 2nd storm in the upcoming models has similarities to 93', although that one was a once in a 100+yr event, this on could be similar, but maybe a bit weaker(I hope).
61. KoritheMan
1:39 AM GMT on March 01, 2008
Hmm, looks like we're going to start March off with a bang. Significant severe weather.

'Course, that's my kind of weather. I prefer it to be stormy as much as possible, but if there is one thing I don't want, it is a tornado. With severe weather as bad as it has been so far in 2008, I wouldn't be surprised to see another significant tornado outbreak with the upcoming storm system.

I'll have to analyze the storm more closely in a couple hours.
Member Since: March 7, 2007 Posts: 575 Comments: 20573
60. Patrap
7:29 PM CST on February 29, 2008
March 12-14, 1993 NARR Superstorm animation ...
800 x 600 - 621k - gif Link

Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 424 Comments: 128278

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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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