Are tornadoes getting stronger and more frequent?
Are tornadoes and severe thunderstorms getting more numerous and more extreme due to climate change? To help answer this question, let's restrict our attention to the U.S., which has the highest incidence of tornadoes and severe thunderstorms of any place in the world. At a first glance, it appears that tornado frequency has increased in recent decades (Figure 1).
Figure 1. The number of EF-0 (blue line) and EF-1 and stronger tornadoes (maroon diamonds) reported in the U.S. since 1950. There is not a decades-long increasing trend in the numbers of tornadoes stronger than EF-0, implying that climate change, as yet, is not having a noticeable impact on U.S. tornadoes. However, statistics of tornado frequency and intensity are highly uncertain. Major changes in the rating process occurred in the mid-1970s (when all tornadoes occurring prior to about 1975 were retrospectively rated), and again in 2001, when scientists began rating tornadoes lower because of engineering concerns and unintended consequences of National Weather Service policy changes. According to Brooks (2013), "Tornadoes in the early part of the official National Weather Service record (1950-approximately 1975) are rated with higher ratings than the 1975 - 2000 period, which, in turn, had higher ratings than 2001 - 2007." Also, beginning in 2007, NOAA switched from the F-scale to the EF-scale for rating tornado damage, causing additional problems with attempting to assess if tornadoes are changing over time. Image credit: Kunkel, Kenneth E., et al., 2013, "Monitoring and Understanding Trends in Extreme Storms: State of Knowledge," Bull. Amer. Meteor. Soc., 94, 499â514, doi: http://dx.doi.org/10.1175/BAMS-D-11-00262.1
However, this increase may be entirely caused by factors unrelated to climate change:
1) Population growth has resulted in more tornadoes being reported.
2) Advances in weather radar, particularly the deployment of about 100 Doppler radars across the U.S. in the mid-1990s, has resulted in a much higher tornado detection rate.
3) Tornado damage surveys have grown more sophisticated over the years. For example, we now commonly classify multiple tornadoes along a damage path that might have been attributed to just one twister in the past.
Given these uncertainties in the tornado data base, it is unknown how the frequency of tornadoes might be changing over time. The "official word" on climate science, the 2007 United Nations IPCC report, stated it thusly: "There is insufficient evidence to determine whether trends exist in small scale phenomena such as tornadoes, hail, lighting, and dust storms." Furthermore, we're not likely to be able to develop methods to improve the situation in the near future.The current Doppler radar system can only detect the presence of a parent rotating thunderstorm that often, but not always, produces a tornado. Until a technology is developed that can reliably detect all tornadoes, there is no hope of determining how tornadoes might be changing in response to a changing climate. According to Doswell (2007): I see no near-term solution to the problem of detecting detailed spatial and temporal trends in the occurrence of tornadoes by using the observed data in its current form or in any form likely to evolve in the near future.
Are strong tornadoes increasing?
Stronger tornadoes (greater than EF-0 on the Enhanced Fujita Scale, or F0 on the pre-2007 Fujita Scale) are more likely to get counted, since they tend to cause significant damage along a long track. Thus, the climatology of these tornadoes may offer a clue as to how climate change may be affecting severe weather. Unfortunately, we cannot measure the wind speeds of a tornado directly, except in very rare cases when researchers happen to be present with sophisticated research equipment. Tornadoes are categorized using the Enhanced Fujita (EF) scale, which is based on damage (note that the EF scale to rate tornadoes was adopted in 2007, but the transition to this new scale still allows valid comparisons of tornadoes rated, for example, EF-5 on the new scale and F-5 on the old scale.) So, if a strong tornado happens to sweep through empty fields and never destroy any structures, it will never be rated as a strong tornado. Thus, if the number of strong tornadoes has actually remained constant over the years, we should expect to see some increase in these twisters over the decades, since more buildings have been erected in the paths of tornadoes. However, if we look at the statistics of U.S. tornadoes stronger than EF-0 or F-0 since 1950, there does not appear to be any increase in their number. Not surprisingly, a study accepted for publication in Environmental Hazards (Simmons et al., 2012) found no increase in tornado damages from 1950 - 2011, after normalizing the data for increases in wealth and property (note, though, that I am suspicious of studies that normalize disaster data, since they are prone to error, as revealed by a 2012 study looking at storm surge heights and damages.)
The future of tornadoes
An alternate technique to study how climate change may be affecting tornadoes is look at how the large-scale environmental conditions favorable for tornado formation have changed through time. Moisture, instability, lift, and wind shear are needed for tornadic thunderstorms to form. The exact mix required varies considerably depending upon the situation, and is not well understood. However, Brooks (2003) attempted to develop a climatology of weather conditions conducive for tornado formation by looking at atmospheric instability (as measured by the Convective Available Potential Energy, or CAPE), and the amount of wind shear between the surface and 6 km altitude. High values of CAPE and surface to 6 km wind shear are conducive to formation of tornadic thunderstorms. The regions they analyzed with high CAPE and high shear for the period 1997-1999 did correspond pretty well with regions where significant (F2 and stronger) tornadoes occurred. The authors plan to extend the climatology back in time to see how climate change may have changed the large-scale conditions conducive for tornado formation. Riemann-Campe et al. (2009) found that globally, CAPE increased significantly between 1958 - 2001. However, little change in CAPE was found over the Central and Eastern U.S. during spring and summer during the most recent period they studied, 1979 - 2001. A preliminary report issued by NOAAâs Climate Attribution Rapid Response Team in July 2011 found no trends in CAPE or wind shear over the lower Mississippi Valley over the past 30 years. However, preliminary work by J. Sander of Munich Re insurance company, presented at the December 2011 American Geophysical Union meeting in San Francisco, found that the number of days with very high CAPE values over the eastern two-thirds of the United States between 1970 and 2009 did increase significantly.
Del Genio et al.(2007) used a climate model with doubled CO2 to show that a warming climate would make the atmosphere more unstable (higher CAPE) and thus prone to more severe weather. However, decreases in wind shear offset this effect, resulting in little change in the amount of severe weather in the Central and Eastern U.S. late this century. The speed of updrafts in thunderstorms over land increased by about 1 m/s in their simulation, though, since upward moving air needed to travel 50-70 mb higher to reach the freezing level. As a result, the most severe thunderstorms got stronger. In the Western U.S., the simulation showed that drying led lead to fewer thunderstorms, but the strongest thunderstorms increased in number by 26%, leading to a 6% increase in the total amount of lighting hitting the ground each year. If these results are correct, we might expect more lightning-caused fires in the Western U.S. late this century, due to enhanced drying and more lightning.
Using a high-resolution regional climate model (25 km grid size) zoomed in on the U.S., Trapp et al. (2007) and Trapp et al. (2009) found that the decrease in 0-6 km wind shear in the late 21st century would more than be made up for by an increase in instability (CAPE). Their model predicted an increase in the number of days with high severe storm potential for almost the entire U.S., by the end of the 21st century. These increases were particularly high for many locations in the Eastern and Southern U.S., including Atlanta, New York City, and Dallas (Figure 3). Cities further north and west such as Chicago saw a smaller increase in the number of severe weather days.
Figure 3. Number of days per year with high severe storm potential historically (blue bars) and as predicted by the climate model (A2 scenario) of Trapp et al. 2007 (red bars).
Summary
We currently do not know how tornadoes and severe thunderstorms may be changing due to changes in the climate, nor is there hope that we will be able to do so in the foreseeable future. At this time, it does not appear that there has been an increase in U.S. tornadoes stronger than EF-0 in recent decades. Preliminary research using climate models suggests that we may see an increase in the number of severe storms capable of producing tornadoes over the U.S. late this century. However, this research is just beginning, and much more study is needed to confirm these findings.
References
Brooks, H.E., 2013, "Severe thunderstorms and climate change," Atmospheric Research, Volume 123, 1 April 2013, Pages 129â138, http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.atmosres.2012.04.002.
Brooks, H.E., J.W. Lee, and J.P. Craven, 2003, "The spatial distribution of severe thunderstorm and tornado environments from global reanalysis data", Atmospheric Research Volumes 67-68, July-September 2003, Pages 73-94.
Doswell, C.A., 2007, "Small Sample Size and Data Quality Issues Illustrated Using Tornado Occurrence Data", E-Journal of Severe Storms Meteorology Vol 2, No. 5 (2007).
Del Genio, A.D., M-S Yao, and J. Jonas, 2007, Will moist convection be stronger in a warmer climate?, Geophysical Research Letters, 34, L16703, doi: 10.1029/2007GL030525.
Kunkel, Kenneth E., et al., 2013, "Monitoring and Understanding Trends in Extreme Storms: State of Knowledge," Bull. Amer. Meteor. Soc., 94, 499â514, doi: http://dx.doi.org/10.1175/BAMS-D-11-00262.1
Marsh, P.T., H.E. Brooks, and D.J. Karoly, 2007, Assessment of the severe weather environment in North America simulated by a global climate model, Atmospheric Science Letters, 8, 100-106, doi: 10.1002/asl.159.
Riemann-Campe, K., Fraedrich, K., and F. Lunkeit, 2009, Global climatology of Convective Available Potential Energy (CAPE) and Convective Inhibition (CIN) in ERA-40 reanalysis, Atmospheric Research Volume 93, Issues 1-3, July 2009, Pages 534-545, 4th European Conference on Severe Storms.
Simmons, K.M., Dutter, D., and Pielke, R., 2012, "Normalized Tornado Damage in the United States: 1950-2011," DOI: 10.1080/17477891.2012.738642
Trapp, R.J., N.S. Diffenbaugh, H.E. Brooks, M.E. Baldwin, E.D. Robinson, and J.S. Pal, 2007, Severe thunderstorm environment frequency during the 21st century caused by anthropogenically enhanced global radiative forcing, PNAS 104 no. 50, 19719-19723, Dec. 11, 2007.
Trapp, R. J., Diffenbaugh, N. S., & Gluhovsky, A., 2009, "Transient response of severe thunderstorm forcing to elevated greenhouse gas concentrations," Geophysical Research Letters, 36(1).
Jeff Masters
Reader Comments
Page: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 — Blog Index
I say lets expand the debate and target 2012,June 1 for a new One.
2003 Seattle Annual Meeting (November 2, 2003)
Paper No. 180-9
Presentation Time: 3:30 PM-3:45 PM
A NEW HURRICANE COASTAL IMPACT SCALE,CONTINUED WORK
Link
The ultimate goal of the proposed HIS is a tool for hurricane/weather forecasters to give coastal residents more information for preparing for a storms potential impact. As an example, Hurricane Andrew (1992) was one of the strongest storms on record (SSS category 4) but it was also a relatively small storm. Opal (1995) was a weaker storm (category 3) but it was much larger. Although Andrew caused a tremendous amount of inland wind damage, Opal actually caused more shoreline erosion and overwash. The HIS rankings reflect this (Andrew-8, Opal-11). Inclusion of the SSS in the HIS reflects the critical nature of storm strength in any such scale. Two storm surge parameters are justified because storm surge is the best measure of a hurricanes energy flux at the shoreline, and thus the potential for erosion, overwash, and property damage at and near the shore.
Link
Good Wednesday morning all!!! Hey Weather456, arent't those in-depth Atlantic Ocean weather discussions only valid during hurricane season?
no..i do them year round
102. StormW 9:45 AM AST on February 27, 2008
99. JFV 8:11 AM EST on February 27, 2008
Good Wednesday morning all!!! Hey Weather456, arent't those in-depth Atlantic Ocean weather discussions only valid during hurricane season?
Think of it kinda like 456 carrying on where I left off...during hurricane season when I post my tropical forecast, I will analyze a lot of different maps, and in my discussion will post items on the MJO, SOI, wind shear, where the TUTT(s) are located, approximation of tropical waves, etc.
Nope....i also analyse the tropics (TUTTS, ENSO, Teleconnections, the monsoon trof, etc) during the hurricane season. I only started posting them here during the off season when there is less traffic on the blog.
For example: Aug 13 2007
special tropical/subtropical systems....
an upper low is centred near 27n/91w. showers continue in the southeastern gulf of mexico where the upper level low interacting with a tropical wave along 86w. surface observations continue to indicate a broad area of low pressure centred on 1007 millibar low near 23n/83w. observation also indicate 20-25 knots which is in fair agreement with the current t numbers from ssd. sea surface temperatures are more than favourable to support development but 20-30 knots of shear is impeding development but is forecast to become more favourable. current forecast track is to head west-northwest towards central mexico/texas.
tropical depression four is centred near 12.0n/34.2w moving west near 17 knots as of 0145 utc. despite increase curve banding features with this system., the centre of circulation remains the eastern edge of the deep convective mass as some easterly shear continues to affect it. conditions still are forecast to become more favourable for additional organization and a tropical storm could form in next 12 hrs. dvorak t numbers have not change and remain at 2.0 or 30 knots. i don't think the forecast track will change much from 5 pm and the leeward islands still should closing monitor it.
and....
Excert from Sep 1 2006
As of 8amAST, Tropical Storm Florence was located at 24.4N/63.3W, moving WNW near 14mph. The storm is packing winds of 65mph and a MCP of 993mbars.
Florence has gain increased organization in the overnights and continues to organize at this moment. This morning visible imagery revealed banding developing in almost all quadrants and substantial outflow in the Eastern Semicircle of Florence's cloud canopy.
The center of Florence (which was also exposed 24hrs ago), is now located in a tightly, well define CDO (Central Dense Overcast).
According to 85H Brightness Temperature Imagery from the Navy, Florence appears to be forming an eye-wall, and could become a hurricane later today or on Sunday.
Is there a reason these things dont get looked into or reported?
I would love to see a frequency MAP of these patterns and to see WHERE increases took place. Is there anywhere to find that?
...RECORD FEBRUARY PRECIPITATION FOR BOSTON...
WITH THE RAINFALL TOTAL OF 0.39 INCHES AT BOSTONS LOGAN
INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT ON TUESDAY...A RECORD MONTHLY PRECIPITATION
RECORD HAS BEEN SET FOR FEBRUARY. THE MONTHLY PRECIPITATION TOTAL
SO FAR FOR FEBRUARY 2008 IS 7.86 INCHES.
THE PREVIOUS RECORD WAS 7.81 INCHES SET IN FEBRUARY 1984.
WEATHER RECORDS IN BOSTON DATE BACK TO 1872.
Ok, I'm trying this one last time since my last post was either lost or removed. I wanted to thank Patrap and Caffinehog for being the only two people to take the time out of their busy lives to answer my question. To the rest of you - keep your clique. I'm tired of trying to make a dent into your exclusive club. At the very least, I figured someone would say "Go away, this isn't on topic. Here's where to go to bother them with your question." I know I have never posted much here, but have from time to time - mostly ignored then too. I'm done.
I only want to know what I was supposed to have posted when I DON'T KNOW THE ANSWERS TO ANY OF THE QUESTIONS!!!!! Some of us actually don't post if we don't know what the $#@% we are talking about.
OTOH, If u had asked about driving a car from the Bahamas, I may have been able to help you.
I thought the blog header was really interesting today. One question, though:
Why is the US particularly vulnerable to tornados? I keep wondering why they aren't also common in places like China, Australia, and sub-equatorial Africa.
We better hope that this isn't right, or a near-Biblical drought and heat wave will scorch virtually the entire U.S. this summer;
WOW!! And places like Wyoming and Utah had really dry summers in 2007, with reservoir levels at their lowest in ages. If this eventuates, things are going to be even worse for the intermountain West.
Thats not good news for the summer
Ok, I'm trying this one last time since my last post was either lost or removed. I wanted to thank Patrap and Caffinehog for being the only two people to take the time out of their busy lives to answer my question. To the rest of you - keep your clique. I'm tired of trying to make a dent into your exclusive club. At the very least, I figured someone would say "Go away, this isn't on topic. Here's where to go to bother them with your question." I know I have never posted much here, but have from time to time - mostly ignored then too. I'm done.
Wow. I had no a idea that a "I do not know of any resource I would trust with a very long range forecast with a lot on money on the line" comment would have made anyone so warm and fuzzy. I guess we should all fill the page with "I dunno" every time a question is aksed from here on out. Of course a real answer might be buried in there somewhere, but c'est la vie. Better that than to have someone think we are really that cliqueish.
Afternoon everybody.
I thought the blog header was really interesting today. One question, though:
Why is the US particularly vulnerable to tornados? I keep wondering why they aren't also common in places like China, Australia, and sub-equatorial Africa.
I also use to wonder then a few years I discover something. Geography (location and physiograhy) played a major role. The flat open land of the great plains lies between three major airmassess. The Dry Continental tropical airmass of the mountains to the west, the warm moist tropical airmass to the south and he contintental polar airmasses to the north. Where else in the world on such a large scale (synoptic scale) a low level jets transport warm moist air at low levels from the gulf, while westerlies transport dry air from the mountains which is equivalent to the mid-levels of lower plains to the east. And along with that, the famous jet streams at 200 mb. This creates a very unstable situation, where u have mid level dry air above warm moist air. All u need now is lifting mechanism and there are several ways in which that moist air can rise and a cold front is major one. Then the jet provides the necessary spin.
The other place I wud say comes close to that is Australia but is there isnt enough lifting over the desert.
Sometimes I wonder how cud a place so perfectly fit all the neccessary conditions of tornado formation just by geography alone. I guess u guys are bad lucky.
121. MichaelSTL 3:42 PM EST on February 27, 2008
We better hope that this isn't right, or a near-Biblical drought and heat wave will scorch virtually the entire U.S. this summer;
WOW!! And places like Wyoming and Utah had really dry summers in 2007, with reservoir levels at their lowest in ages. If this eventuates, things are going to be even worse for the intermountain West.
WOW!! the west has had more moisture, snow and rain, than they have had in the past 80 years, snow depths are at record highs. Just the fax, just the fax!
123. BahaHurican 8:49 PM GMT on February 27, 2008
121. MichaelSTL 3:42 PM EST on February 27, 2008
We better hope that this isn't right, or a near-Biblical drought and heat wave will scorch virtually the entire U.S. this summer;
WOW!! And places like Wyoming and Utah had really dry summers in 2007, with reservoir levels at their lowest in ages. If this eventuates, things are going to be even worse for the intermountain West.
WOW!! the west has had more moisture, snow and rain, than they have had in the past 80 years, snow depths are at record highs. Just the fax, just the fax!
I'm going to have to check stats, but I don't think WY has got the same kind of precip this winter as other areas, particularly to the NW and south of it. Something about a rain shadow thing. A lot of water that drains through Utah to the Colorado originates in WY.
I'll see if I can find precip for WY for the last three months.
Yeah, I coulda left off the WOW!
LOL
Ok, I'm trying this one last time since my last post was either lost or removed. I wanted to thank Patrap and Caffinehog for being the only two people to take the time out of their busy lives to answer my question. To the rest of you - keep your clique. I'm tired of trying to make a dent into your exclusive club. At the very least, I figured someone would say "Go away, this isn't on topic. Here's where to go to bother them with your question." I know I have never posted much here, but have from time to time - mostly ignored then too. I'm done.
I read your question and to answer it: Your best bet is to keep an eye on the 10 day forecast. Though this is constantly revised and could change it's about the most accurate thing you could go by.
That and check wunderground vs weather.com, and other sites that you could compare forecasts to.
In your heated response I think you forgot to mention StormW that had answered your question also *before* you posted the comment above.
Like many people said they simply just do not know the answer to your question. I know I sure dont. Just watch the 10 day, and if I were you I'd take the southern route.
You risk running into icy conditions on the northern route that time of year. Of course if it's still abnormally cold in the Kentucky area you risk ice there as well.
Best of luck to you in any case.
... Alleghany County...
Laurel Springs T 545 PM 2/27
... Ashe County...
Fleetwood 5.5 545 PM 2/27
... Watauga County...
Rominger 8.0 600 PM 2/27 Beech Mountain
Peoria 7.5 600 PM 2/27
Silverstone 7.5 600 PM 2/27 along Rich Mountain
Zionville 7.5 600 PM 2/27
Boone 3.5 600 PM 2/27
Snow should end by 1:00p.m Thursday here in N.C.Reports of white-outs and like blizzard like conditions.The highest elevations in N.C, slightly below 6000f.t got around and over 20inches.(Officaly 17 about 5hours ago)
More snow totals in.(Still another 5hours of heavy snow likely) From weatherunderground
... Avery County...
Beech Mountain 5.0 730 am 2/27 12 deg at 7 am
Elk Park 5.0 230 PM 2/27
Seven Devils 4.0 1149 am 2/27
Flat Springs 3.0 700 am 2/27 1.2 E Flat Springs
Minneapolis 3.0 225 PM 2/27
Newland 1.0 215 PM 2/27 Avery comms center
... Buncombe County...
Weaverville 3.0 700 am 2/27 4.7 NNW Weaverville
Asheville 1.0 110 PM 2/27
Asheville recreation 1.0 700 am 2/27 5.7 NNW Asheville
Enka 1.0 800 am 2/27
Swannanoa 1.0 800 am 2/27 2 S Swannanoa
Fairview T 700 am 2/27 3.8 ENE Fairview
... Graham County...
Robbinsville 9.0 930 am 2/27 9 W Robbinsville
Robbinsville 5.0 700 am 2/27 1.3 S Robbinsville
Robbinsville 4.0 930 am 2/27
... Haywood County...
Waynesville 7.0 155 PM 2/27 17 NE Waynesville
Waterville 5.0 130 PM 2/27 1 SW Waterville Lake
Maggie Valley 3.0 100 PM 2/27 4 NE Maggie Valley
Waynesville 3.0 110 PM 2/27 10 N waynesville3000ft
Maggie Valley 1.0 1230 PM 2/27 Post office report
Waynesville 0.5 1246 PM 2/27 pubic report
... Jackson County...
Dillsboro 0.5 700 am 2/27 6 NW Dillsboro
Sylva T 1117 am 2/27
... Macon County...
Franklin T 700 am 2/27 7.3 E Franklin
... Madison County...
Hot Springs 4.0 730 am 2/27
Marshall 4.0 730 am 2/27
... Mitchell County...
Buladean 8.0 215 PM 2/27 11 NNW Bakersville
Spruce Pine 2.0 730 am 2/27
... Swain County...
Newfound Gap 12.0 730 am 2/27 at 5000 feet
oconaluftee 1.0 700 am 2/27
Bryson City T 800 am 2/27
... Yancey County...
Burnsville 4.0 210 PM 2/27 9 NW Burnsville
Mount Mitchell 3.0 700 am 2/27 6 degrees at 7 am
Burnsville 2.0 700 am 2/27 4.6 N Burnsville
As the cold front exists the region, the associated high pressure continues to build across the Deep South producing moderate to strong offshore flow. This flow is assoicated with 20-35 knot north winds and 14-18 ft swells which are forecast to continue to push behind the front as it progresses southeastward.
I just checked some of the buoys out there and the winds and seas have subsided across the Western Gulf. Buoy 42002 in the western Gulf of Mexico has passed its peak today when it reported 13-14 ft seas and 29 knot sustain winds G 36 knots early this morning around 4-5 am. The bulk of the wave action has now moved into the central and Eastern Gulf as seen with buoy 42003 further east of afformentioned buoy.
Buoy 42001 in the central gulf
The Gulf of Tehuantepec is also experiencing another storm force event. This is about the 3rd for the year and the 4th for the winter season (December-April).
ok I promised my son I would ask the weather experts on underground. He missed a question on his science class in weather. The questions reads: What might happen when two air masses come together and form a warm front? answers A. steady rain B. thunderstorms C. a strong sea breeze and D. cooler temperatures. He answered B. thunderstorms and got it wrong. What do you think? Thanks
stratiform clouds are assoicated with warm fronts due to the front's gentle slope. Stratiform clouds produce steady rain. Cant be thunderstorms (not impossible) but warm fronts are not as convectively unstable as cold fronts.
I can explain my being upset. The reason is that I thought for sure that the information I was seeking had to be a fairly simple find and with all of forecasters here, there was probably some site that many members use and average guy like me just doesn't know about it. I also thought that someone had to know where I might find historical weather data such as the average last snowfall in Ohio in a nice and tidy package somewhere.
In short, I'm just wanting to explain my curtness and pass around a big pan of apology brownies. I'm just anxious to pick up my Christmas present. (A convertible.)
ok I promised my son I would ask the weather experts on underground. He missed a question on his science class in weather. The questions reads: What might happen when two air masses come together and form a warm front? answers A. steady rain B. thunderstorms C. a strong sea breeze and D. cooler temperatures. He answered B. thunderstorms and got it wrong. What do you think? Thanks
Yes;the answer is A. D would only occur when the warm front passed a certain location,and the cold air wouldn't form simply because of the front,it would exist already. C makes no sense since most warm fronts typically form in the Midwest or Northeast. B is generally wrong,although if you were to be technical about it it's possible if the storms were near the low center ,although not farther out along the front.
Seriously, let's just tie every bad weather streak into global warming and get over it already.
I wanted to thank other listers for answering my numerous questions too. You all have been very helpful.
April 26, 2007
Ashton Robinson Cook: Storm Prediction Center SCEP student
Oklahoma Climatological Survey
Apr 26, 2007 ... A further analysis reveals that stronger tornadoes (rated F2 or higher in the Fujita Scale) occur slightly more frequently in the La Niņa ...
Link
http://www.dailytech.com/Temperature+Monitors+Report+Worldwide+Global+Cooling/article10866.htm
"Twelve-month long drop in world temperatures wipes out a century of warming
Over the past year, anecdotal evidence for a cooling planet has exploded. China has its coldest winter in 100 years. Baghdad sees its first snow in all recorded history. North America has the most snowcover in 50 years, with places like Wisconsin the highest since record-keeping began. Record levels of Antarctic sea ice, record cold in Minnesota, Texas, Florida, Mexico, Australia, Iran, Greece, South Africa, Greenland, Argentina, Chile -- the list goes on and on.
No more than anecdotal evidence, to be sure. But now, that evidence has been supplanted by hard scientific fact. All four major global temperature tracking outlets (Hadley, NASA's GISS, UAH, RSS) have released updated data. All show that over the past year, global temperatures have dropped precipitously.
A compiled list of all the sources can be seen here. The total amount of cooling ranges from 0.65C up to 0.75C -- a value large enough to wipe out most of the warming recorded over the past 100 years. All in one year's time. For all four sources, it's the single fastest temperature change ever recorded, either up or down.
Scientists quoted in a past DailyTech article link the cooling to reduced solar activity which they claim is a much larger driver of climate change than man-made greenhouse gases. The dramatic cooling seen in just 12 months time seems to bear that out. While the data doesn't itself disprove that carbon dioxide is acting to warm the planet, it does demonstrate clearly that more powerful factors are now cooling it.
Let's hope those factors stop fast. Cold is more damaging than heat. The mean temperature of the planet is about 54 degrees. Humans -- and most of the crops and animals we depend on -- prefer a temperature closer to 70.
Historically, the warm periods such as the Medieval Climate Optimum were beneficial for civilization. Corresponding cooling events such as the Little Ice Age, though, were uniformly bad news."
Today, in agreement with Weather456, there is knee/thigh high (lower then yesterday)very clean waves (means no wind chop)The air is 47/gulf temp. is 67 winds presently off shore NE at 9-13 SRQ/WFL/GOMEX
SURFERS: LOOK FOR ANOTHER KICKER FRONT - tuesday. Unfortunately for me - the cold really deters me from getting wet.
Viewing: 101 - 151
Page: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 — Blog Index