New KatrinaBlog, and No TD 15!

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 4:26 PM GMT on September 02, 2005

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Hello all, I have created a new blog titled KatrinaBlog for all Katrina-related discussions. I plan to post all Katrina-related material to both this blog and to my regular JeffMasters blog, but ask you to use the JeffMasters blog for only non-Katrina related subjects. On both blogs, I ask you to keep it positive and use it for discussions. Avoid making posts that more properly belong in a chat room (for example "How are you today?", etc). In the future, we plan to create a multi-threaded blog to allieviate the congestion that has developed on my blog, but that software will take several months to write. Thanks for all the great material many of you have posted, and I'm sorry I haven't had more time to read all your comments and respond directly to many of them!

No TD 15 yet

Yesterday, I was quite concerned about the possibility of a
significant threat developing from a tropical wave spinning midway between Africa and the Leeward Islands, near 8N 35W. This morning, the deep convection around the low has diminished, and Quikscat winds have fallen to about 20 knots surrounding the storm. This tropical wave is not a threat to develop for the next day or two. Why did this wave fall apart? Steering currents pushed the wave somewhat south of due west, bringing the low so close to the equator (latitude 8N) that the low was unable to use the Earth's spin to help it maintain its own spin. The Coriolis Force--that component of the Earth's spin pointing in the vertical direction--is zero at the equator, and a tropical system cannot maintain the spin needed to develop if it ventures too close to the equator, since a portion of the Earth's spin is required. I have never seen a tropical cyclone in the Atlantic spin up south of 8N.

Nevertheless, this wave needs to be watched the next few days as it tracks westward towards the Leeward Islands. When the wave moves a bit further north two or three days from now, the low wind shear and warm waters should be conducive to develpment.

Development by the Bahamas
An area of concentrated clouds has developed east of the Bahamas, but the wind shear is too high here now for any tropical development to occur. However, the shear will decrease over the next few days so that by Sunday or Monday tropical depression could develop in the waters between the Bahamas and Bermuda. This development would occur at the tail end of a cold front that is expected to push off of the East Coast. The latest GFS model run shows that any storm that develops in this area would move slowly, and might take an erratic and unpredictable path.

Tropical Storm Maria
Maria is of little concern. She is a weak system tracking over open ocean, with little chance of impacting any land areas.

Wunderphotographer mudkow60 also happens to be a helicopter pilot rescuing people stranded in Mississippi. He's posted a few amzazing photos below, and adds on one of the captions, "THANKS FOR ALL YOUR RESPONSES. SORRY I HAVE NOT REPLYED.... I AM REALLY BUSY AT WORK.. THANKS."

Remember to post comments about his photos and other Katrina-related material to the KatrinaBlog. It is quite possible that creating a second blog like this won't work; if enough of you find this second blog to be a bad idea, we'll scrap it and go back to the original single blog. Thanks.

Jeff Masters

West of Gulfport (mudkow60)
Waveland, where the eye hit. THANKS FOR ALL YOUR RESPONSES. SORRY I HAVE NOT REPLYED.... I AM REALLY BUSY AT WORK.. THANKS.
West of Gulfport
West of Gulfport (mudkow60)
I think this was around Pass Chrisitan or Waveland, where the eye hit. THANKS FOR ALL YOUR RESPONSES. SORRY I HAVE NOT REPLYED.... I AM REALLY BUSY AT WORK.. THANKS.
West of Gulfport
My heart is sick... (mudkow60)
I can not write this without tears comming to my eyes. Taken in a hover while rescuing people off of rooftops in New Orleans.
My heart is sick...

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145. pinecrestjeff
2:31 AM GMT on September 04, 2005
The latest infrared images show what appears to be a lot of syuetrical convection in the past few hours east of the south/central Bahamas.
144. Orleans77
1:28 AM GMT on September 04, 2005
What are the latest thought on "Bahama Development" ?
143. Orleans77
1:26 AM GMT on September 04, 2005
Hi everybody...

Have been away a few days...attended a funeral in Columbus, Ohio...
142. ejstrick
2:04 PM GMT on September 03, 2005
Just looking at satellite pictures this morning, it appears
that there is a pretty good blowup of convection east of
the Bahamas. Concerning the front to move through Florida
and bring high pressure to the east coast, it has moved through Jax as I went to get my morning newspaper and noticed a marked decrease in humidity which made it feel somewhat comfortable outside for the first time since May.
It appears the players for development are coming together.
Member Since: August 25, 2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 895
141. ejstrick
1:58 PM GMT on September 03, 2005
Look for development by Monday
off the Florida east coast. The
NWS offices in Florida agree on
this.
Member Since: August 25, 2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 895
140. o22sail
1:35 PM GMT on September 03, 2005
Anybody heard from STORMTOP?
I kinda miss (his?) firebrand blogging style.
Hope everything is OK. Ya think he got those pictures? Man...
Wishing the best for all involved.

Trey-
KI4ITV
Member Since: August 27, 2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 124
139. Fast5
12:57 PM GMT on September 03, 2005
What's the latest updates on that off the East Coast of Florida?
138. 147257
11:15 AM GMT on September 03, 2005
i dont like the idea that there could develop a wave there by 8 N 38 or a little further. If it develops it would be a really strong storm

stormtop do you think there is any chance if it develops it would hit my island?
Member Since: August 2, 2005 Posts: 7 Comments: 68
137. hurricane79
4:28 AM GMT on September 03, 2005
Maria will stay in the open Atlantic due to the broad trough located near Bermuda. This trough will remain stationary for a few days, before being filled in by a ridge of high pressure. There are 2 areas that concern me in the tropics right now. It will take some time for them to evolve. By Labor Day, it will become much more clear what will become of these two disturbed areas of weather.

1) Invest 92L, thought by myself and the NHC to become a depression on Friday, lost its convection overnight Thursday. It has been holding its own as a vigorous wave as it moves Westward, at a low latitude.

Q: What will happen next? A: The system is not deep at this time. It is trapped in the deep Easterly flow across the deep tropical Atlantic. The system is somewhat disorganized and will most likely continue this way until it nears the Leeward islands in a couple of days. By that time, very warm waters, and a weakening East Shear, should allow for this sytem to develop into a tropical cyclone. I anticipate that if this scenario occurs, then we will have a depression just East of the Leeward Islands by Labor Day.

2) The complex are of low pressure at the surface, is located between the Bahamas and Bermuda. The key factor for this system's effects and development is where the deep storm activity persist. Shear is expected to lessen in the next 24 hours. This will allow whatever convection is over this area to possibly organize into a tropical cyclone.

A ridge of High pressure developing over the Eastern US is a strong one, similar to the one we saw turn Jeanne around towards Florida last year. This is why it will be important to watch what area off the Florida East Coast develops, if any. An area within a few hundred miles of our Coast may head towards Florida. While a system closer to Bermuda will be dragged out to sea by the trough moving away from the US.

All of this will be played out in the next 5 days. My graphical forecast is here: (http://Flaweather.com/images/maria.JPG)
136. santarosa
2:44 AM GMT on September 03, 2005
Dr. Masters
I do like having the 2 different sites. It makes it easier to get the tropical weather information only. This does not make me uncaring of what is going on with those affected by Katrina, I go to that site too. I do not come on wunderground just because I love to talk about and watch hurricanes (fascinating as they are). I do it to get the latest information in order to decide what to do because I live in Santa Rosa County, Florida which has been hit by Ivan & Dennis and at least brushed by 2 tropical storms and Katrina all in less than a year. It was difficult reading through all of the comments to find the weather information with one blog and although usually I just read what you have to say, I have found that there is also great information from the people on here as well. BTW, My husband was not going to board up for Dennis, but when I told him that you had predicted Dennis within 50 miles of Ivan's landfall, he boarded up and Dennis came just about right over the top of us. Thanks!
135. Moonwizard
2:27 AM GMT on September 03, 2005
Anyone heard if they got a chance to use an "Aerosonde" unmanned aircraft on Katrina? Just saw a piece on it on Discovery Channel. If so, I wonder what they've found?

Thanks.
134. killdevilmax
1:59 AM GMT on September 03, 2005
I think I recall from a past you being in Okracoke?
Member Since: August 28, 2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 322
133. killdevilmax
1:56 AM GMT on September 03, 2005
yea OBXER KDH NC
Member Since: August 28, 2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 322
132. OBXER
1:42 AM GMT on September 03, 2005
Killdevil i assume you are on the OBX
Member Since: September 24, 2001 Posts: 0 Comments: 11
131. TheEdge
1:38 AM GMT on September 03, 2005
Federal offices said today that people wanting to help to not attend the impacted sites by Hurricane Katrina and instead make cash contributions to organizations.

Cash donations do allow the agencies to avoid the need to store, pack, and distribute donated goods. The cost to do so becomes prohibitive which is why cash donations are currently being sought.

FEMA (Federal Emergency Management Agency www.fema.gov) listed the following agencies as needing cash to assist hurricane victims:

- American Red Cross, 800-HELP NOW (435-7669) English, 800-257-7575 Spanish.

- Operation Blessing, 800-436-6348.

- America's Second Harvest, 800-344-8070.

- Adventist Community Services, 800-381-7171.

- Catholic Charities, USA, 703-549-1390.

- Christian Disaster Response, 941-956-5183 or 941-551-9554.

- Christian Reformed World Relief Committee, 800-848-5818.

- Church World Service, 800-297-1516.

- Convoy of Hope, 417-823-8998.

- Lutheran Disaster Response, 800-638-3522.

- Mennonite Disaster Service, 717-859-2210.

- Nazarene Disaster Response, 888-256-5886.

- Presbyterian Disaster Assistance, 800-872-3283.

- Salvation Army, 800-SAL-ARMY (725-2769).

- Southern Baptist Convention - Disaster Relief, 800-462-8657, ext. 6440.

- United Methodist Committee on Relief. 800-554-8583.

130. killdevilmax
1:30 AM GMT on September 03, 2005
Dr. Masters

I tend to agree with storm junkie's take (850gmt 2 sept)concerning multiple blogs. As I am less knowlegeable than the lead bloggers, I tend to follow that crowd where ever they post. I get the sense that many other regulars do the same. My main objective is to keep track of developing systems but all the other information that goes through here is quite good and usually any news report anywhere gets posted, not unlike a major news agency desk.I think Steve's blog site is outstanding as well. If I had to vote I would go with the one blog. As far as Jeff14photos and his ilk, if they don't get fed they don't hang around long. JMO
Member Since: August 28, 2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 322
129. weatherguy03
12:26 AM GMT on September 03, 2005
WEST ATLANTIC...
A COMPLEX SCENARIO IS SHAPING UP OVER THE W ATLC WATERS. THREE
DISTINCT SURFACE LOWS ARE OBSERVED IN SATELLITE IMAGERY AND THE
ISOBARIC ANALYSIS...A 1011 MB LOW E OF JACKSONVILLE NEAR
31N77W...1010 MB LOW NEAR 28N70W...AND A 1011 MB LOW S OF
BERMUDA NEAR 31N64W. A WEAK COLD FRONT WHICH MOVED OFF THE U.S.
EAST COAST CONNECTS TO THE WESTERNMOST LOW...AND THEN A TROUGH
EXTENDS SW OF THE LOW INLAND OVER CENTRAL FLORIDA. THE TWO OTHER
LOWS LIE AHEAD OF THE FRONT...WITH A TROUGH EXTENDING FROM THE
LOW NEAR BERMUDA TO 26N66W. AN UPPER LOW IS LOCATED WITHIN THE
SAME GENERAL REGION NEAR 30N61W WITH A TROUGH SW TO 24N69W AND
AN AREA OF UPPER DIFFLUENCE IS PRODUCING SCATTERED MODERATE
CONVECTION FROM 23N-27.5N BETWEEN 63W-74W...PRIMARILY S OF THE
SURFACE FEATURES. THE LOWS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN IN THE SAME
NEIGHBORHOOD OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS BUT THEN THE GFS RIPS
ONE LOW NEWD INTO THE N ATLC AND A SECOND LOW DRIFTS WWD TOWARDS
FLORIDA (BUT STILL SITTING OFF THE COAST BY LATE WED). THE
ULTIMATE OUTCOME WILL LARGELY DEPEND ON WHERE AND IF DEEP
CONVECTION PERSISTS...SO STAY TUNED IN THE COMING DAYS

From TPC...Definately leftyy we will just have to watch it during this weekend.
Member Since: July 5, 2005 Posts: 592 Comments: 29708
128. leftyy420
12:17 AM GMT on September 03, 2005
their is a broad trof of low pressure. it is on the end of the cold front that has slowly moved thru the area. the shear is still to high and we currently have no closed circulation. it will be some time, atleast sunday night, befor that shear slackens an that trof of low presure will have a chance to develop.
Member Since: August 24, 2005 Posts: 35 Comments: 1987
127. cajunkid
12:14 AM GMT on September 03, 2005
looks like something is in the bahamas now
Member Since: July 10, 2005 Posts: 3 Comments: 1281
126. weatherguy03
11:06 PM GMT on September 02, 2005
18Z GFS in....Compared to the 12Z run, the GFS in not as agressive in developing low near Florida and Bahamas...Link...Confidence in this feature right now is low. We have been seeing the GFS moving back and forth on this, so right now IMO i would give it about a 30% chance of developing. Again we have this weekend to keep an eye on this.
Member Since: July 5, 2005 Posts: 592 Comments: 29708
125. turtlehurricane
10:48 PM GMT on September 02, 2005
i hav updated my tropical weather blog for south florida. urgent news on latest developments.
Member Since: July 22, 2005 Posts: 227 Comments: 469
124. JupiterFL
10:24 PM GMT on September 02, 2005
StormJunkie,
I would love to talk to everyone else but I come here to learn more about weather not evacuations, politics and such.
Thanks for the offer. I may pop over there later.
Member Since: August 10, 2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 2146
123. Weatherwatcher007
10:10 PM GMT on September 02, 2005
Evolution, accuweather says that it is a tropical low. The NHC says it is a broad area of low pressure. Only time will tell if it develops or not.

A developing area low pressure in the mid levels of the atmosphere is south of Bermuda and will have to watched for slow tropical development this weekend. A frontal boundary off of the southeast Coast extending southwest into the Gulf of Mexico may be the breeding ground for waves of low pressure early next week. High pressure building to the north of this front over the weekend will increase northeast to easterly flow to the north of front and when you combine that with some upper level energy tracking south toward this area, low pressure can be spawned.

-Accuweather
122. crazydave52
10:08 PM GMT on September 02, 2005
Well first off , Katrina started off as TD 10 as a strong Tropical Depression in the Middle Atlantic then she fell apart I think over Hispanola. Then it reemerged as TD 12 (There was agreat deal of discussion on Met Boards as to whether NWS (National Weather Service) should have “applied” the TD 12 Moniker to Katrina ! It was still TD 10 Reformed, and it had been a very strong Tropical Depression !

It reformed about 275 NM (Nautical Miles) from Miami !

Quickly grew to a Cat 1 Hurricane “clipped “the tip” of Florida and was back out the “nice” “HOT” Gulf Ocean, with most of it’s “feeder bands” intact! “Feeder Bands” are what make a hurricane get stronger.

I watched Katrina “loaf” She went further west and further South than anybody would have beieved !

When I saw “Katrina” drift Further West and More South. I knew It was going to hit No-il Lens or close !!!!

Point is BOTH Dr. Jeff Masters and Steve Gregory were calling for the full evacuation on New Orleans way before the order was given !

About 36 hrs earlier

Wunderground.com
121. evolution
10:05 PM GMT on September 02, 2005
what is the convection associated with just east of the bahamas? the last few IR frames have shown some considerable convection going on. i thought if this were to develop it wouldn't be until the trof comes southeast of the u.s. coast?? later on this weekend....is this just convection blowing up from divergence, or a weak wave....???anyone?

bahamas 50%
Maria 2%
wave 40%
120. StormJunkie
10:02 PM GMT on September 02, 2005
Sorry CGHC did come over and respond. Sorry about that mistake.

Why don't you join us on the other side Jupiter?
Member Since: August 17, 2005 Posts: 26 Comments: 16874
119. StormJunkie
10:01 PM GMT on September 02, 2005
I even asked the people in the other blog to come answer your question Jupiter. No response.

This is how I understand it though. Same area. Lots of shear right now so no development. Shear will weaken though over the next day or two. Expected to move out to sea, but that is all too hard to tell seeing as how the system has not even formed yet.

Go back and read all of the posts in the blog and you will see most of those questions have already been raised.
Member Since: August 17, 2005 Posts: 26 Comments: 16874
118. JupiterFL
9:58 PM GMT on September 02, 2005
An hour is fine with me. I have all the time in the world.
Member Since: August 10, 2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 2146
117. JupiterFL
9:57 PM GMT on September 02, 2005
Thats for sure. I'm just afraid that it is forming to far South to get swept out.
PS Kick some Seminole butt on Monday.
Member Since: August 10, 2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 2146
116. cgableshurrycanegal
9:53 PM GMT on September 02, 2005
jupiter, there's an awful lot going on with the trof moving in, hopefully it'll get wept north??? We sure don't want it in OUR neck of the woods...
Member Since: July 12, 2005 Posts: 24 Comments: 212
115. StormJunkie
9:41 PM GMT on September 02, 2005
Expect an answer in an hour or so Jupiter. Everyone is in the Katrina blog. Maybe ask there.
Member Since: August 17, 2005 Posts: 26 Comments: 16874
114. JupiterFL
9:17 PM GMT on September 02, 2005
Thanks Dr. Jeff for splitting the blogs.
I see some activity starting to brew just east of the Bahamas. Is this the same area that the system is expected to form or something else altogether.
Thanks for all you guys do.
Member Since: August 10, 2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 2146
113. MaryEstherFLA
8:54 PM GMT on September 02, 2005
Storm Junkie
Ditto my last post to you.
Just my opinion.
Member Since: August 4, 2005 Posts: 26 Comments: 1190
112. StormJunkie
8:51 PM GMT on September 02, 2005
Sorry Dr Jeff. I meant to be in the other room with that post.
Member Since: August 17, 2005 Posts: 26 Comments: 16874
111. StormJunkie
8:50 PM GMT on September 02, 2005
For those that did not see. This is my take.

Dr Masters,
I will gladly respect your wishes to have two seperate chat rooms, although I would like to point out a few downfalls of this.
1. Others that are watching the tropics due to intrest or concern for their area may not have a complete grasp of how Katrina is going to effect our nation and I think that this was a good area for them to get others inputs. These people will likely not visit the aftermath blog although I could be wrong.
2. Now we have to choose which blog to keep up with or we have to jump back and forth. I think that we are also all aware that as soon as the tropics have a potential threat to North America we will be on top of it.
3. The effects of Katrina will greatly impact any other system that may threaten the N. American landmass this season. Many of our resources have been tied up due to her and people need to be aware of this if they plan on staying home for any storm.
4. The majority of the people on this blog are very intrested in tropical systems from start to finish. Example Katrina. Look how many of us followed XXtd10. We are also just as intrested and concerned about the impact Katrina's aftermath has, which is a direct result of the tropics so I tend to think that they are intertwined.
5. I can not recall someone posting a tropical question and not having it answered or responded too.

In closing I hope that you will consider opening this blog back up to effects of tropical systems as well as the tropics themselves. I think that we all learn from this and I am almost certain that this blog reaches more people than the two seperate blogs will.

I have mentioned my thoughts and have drawn some conclusions about others on this board, if I have mispoken for any one on this board I am sorry.

"The significant problems that we face can not be solved by the same level of thinking that created them"-Albert Einstien

Also please consider resolving this Jeff14photos problem. His silliness is not needed here.
Thanks
StormJunkie
Member Since: August 17, 2005 Posts: 26 Comments: 16874
110. turtlehurricane
8:25 PM GMT on September 02, 2005
my tropical anlysis today: maria is strengthening but, is only a threat to Bermuda. The wave that was almost td 15 yesterday has degenerated into an area of scattered clouds. it could reform but, not for a while.
Member Since: July 22, 2005 Posts: 227 Comments: 469
108. StormJunkie
7:53 PM GMT on September 02, 2005
I still say you won't have a good idea till it forms. Is it possible? yes. It is a wait and see just like the wave.
Member Since: August 17, 2005 Posts: 26 Comments: 16874
107. Weatherwatcher007
7:50 PM GMT on September 02, 2005
Is the GA/SC coast a possibility? I think it is because if something develops and the weakness forms near the coast then it would take that track into the area of least resistance.
106. StormJunkie
7:47 PM GMT on September 02, 2005
No clue 007. It is very hard to say prior to development. Theory is either out to sea or across Florida.
Member Since: August 17, 2005 Posts: 26 Comments: 16874
105. Weatherwatcher007
7:44 PM GMT on September 02, 2005
I'm starting to think Maria will stay out to sea lefty and stormj. It is the area around Fl and the bahamas that I'm watching in the tropics now. The wave out near the equator is no threat to the US right now but I have an eye on it. Lefty and Stormj what do you think the intensity and track of the area around the bahamas will be IF it develops?
104. leftyy420
7:43 PM GMT on September 02, 2005
i am cooking lunch i back on later
Member Since: August 24, 2005 Posts: 35 Comments: 1987
103. WSI
7:42 PM GMT on September 02, 2005
Steve's blog is here...

Link

Not sure why they removed the link on the main page since its one of the most informative blogs on this site.
102. StormJunkie
7:33 PM GMT on September 02, 2005
Lefty do not know which blog this belongs on but you down?
Member Since: August 17, 2005 Posts: 26 Comments: 16874
101. StormJunkie
7:29 PM GMT on September 02, 2005
"The significant problems that we face can not be solved by the same level of thinking that created them"-Albert Einstien

So anything new in the Tropics? Wave needs to gain lat right? Florida area is wait and see?
Member Since: August 17, 2005 Posts: 26 Comments: 16874
100. leftyy420
7:27 PM GMT on September 02, 2005
the llc of maria is almost exposed and the convection is being sheard . it will be hard for her to strengthen anymore than she has and she will be reaching cold sst soon. the nhc takes her to 60mph and no further. i would be suprised to see her get that high
Member Since: August 24, 2005 Posts: 35 Comments: 1987
99. weatherguy03
7:24 PM GMT on September 02, 2005
SHIPS brings it up to hurricane strenght, as the shear is forecasted to weaken. All other models weaken it, I would say it reaches just under hurricane strenght before dissapating.
Member Since: July 5, 2005 Posts: 592 Comments: 29708
98. StormJunkie
7:22 PM GMT on September 02, 2005
Well then that is that. I geuss we wait and see on the Florida area and the wave. Gosh ya'll not much to talk about huh?

Hey we could speculate on what another storm in the gulf would mean or we could take a vote onhow many more landfalling systems we get this year.

How many think we make it to the Alpha names?
Member Since: August 17, 2005 Posts: 26 Comments: 16874
97. whitewabit (Mod)
7:20 PM GMT on September 02, 2005
weatherguy03

will Maria reach a cat 1 before losing strength?
Member Since: August 17, 2005 Posts: 365 Comments: 31792
96. weatherguy03
7:15 PM GMT on September 02, 2005
More maria models if anyone interested....Link...Definately going out to sea..
Member Since: July 5, 2005 Posts: 592 Comments: 29708
95. leftyy420
7:15 PM GMT on September 02, 2005
brb u guys. gotta cook some food.
Member Since: August 24, 2005 Posts: 35 Comments: 1987

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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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