Science Debate 2008

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 7:06 PM GMT on February 11, 2008

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The issues of global warming and climate change are important to many voters, yet the media has done a poor job asking the U.S. presidential candidates about these topics. In a study quoted by The Boston Globe, in 2007 the major TV networks asked presidential candidates 2,679 questions. Of those questions, only three were about global warming--the same number of questions that were asked about UFOs. With the presidential race narrowed down to four main candidates--Hillary Clinton, Mike Huckabee, John McCain, and Barack Obama--it's time that the candidates' views on climate change be given more attention. To address this need, the four major candidates have been invited to participate in Science Debate 2008, a verbal debate to be held on April 18, 2008, at Philadelphia's Franklin Institute. The debate is cosponsored by the American Association for the Advancement of Science (AAAS), the Council on Competitiveness, the National Academy of Sciences, the National Academy of Engineering, and the Institute of Medicine. Nearly 100 leading American universities and other organizations have signed on to promote the effort, along with many prominent scientists, writers, and members of Congress. The debate is designed to discover the candidates' views on many science-related topics, such as climate change, clean energy, health care, science education and technology in schools, scientific integrity, GM agriculture, transportation infrastructure, the genome, data privacy, intellectual property, pandemic diseases, the health of the oceans, water resources, stem cells, conservation and species loss, population, and the space program.

We need your help to make this debate happen! Contact the campaigns of the candidates to ask them to participate in the debate, sign a petition to approve of the debate, or write a letter to the editor of your local paper. Chris Mooney, who authored the excellent 2007 book, Storm World: Hurricanes, Politics, and the Battle Over Global Warming, is one of the leaders of the initiative, and has posted links one can use to help with these tasks, in his blog, The Intersection. Thanks for helping out!

Jeff Masters

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134. dearmas
10:11 PM EST on February 11, 2008
so how bad do these storms look that are coming tomorrow, TS winds or is that being crazy, lol
Member Since: August 23, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 120
133. pianomahnn
3:09 AM GMT on February 12, 2008
@weatherboykris

Well, sure, this I realize. But it's so miniature! And it looks angry.
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132. FLWeatherFreak91
10:01 PM EST on February 11, 2008
Alrighty guys...I'm off to bed. Keep the blog going so I'll have a lot to read when I go to school in the morning. 'Night
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131. hurricane23
10:02 PM EST on February 11, 2008
I think the severe weather could very well hold off until wednesday.Gusty winds is the main threat here the way i currently see it.
Member Since: May 14, 2006 Posts: 8 Comments: 13750
130. kf4orw
9:23 PM EST on February 11, 2008
This is what my friend Dave Anderson from NPR says:

Take a look at this MM5 model run of surface winds.

http://mesonet.tamu.edu/scoop-cgi/ogc/wrf

No doubt it’ll be bad, based on what I’m seeing so far.

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129. dearmas
9:59 PM EST on February 11, 2008
ha, in Tampa
Member Since: August 23, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 120
128. weatherboykris
2:59 AM GMT on February 12, 2008
It's low pressure system.They spin.Funny that way.
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127. dearmas
9:58 PM EST on February 11, 2008
rain is all we want
Member Since: August 23, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 120
126. franck
2:50 AM GMT on February 12, 2008
sullivanweather...thanks for ice fracture loops. It would appear by the speed at which the borken off ice moves away from the larger body that there is a force pushing the ice away once it fractures off.
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125. pianomahnn
2:56 AM GMT on February 12, 2008
Just what the hell is that spinning weather pattern south west of Houston? It seem so...odd.
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124. hahaguy
9:56 PM EST on February 11, 2008
we really need the rain here so thats what i'm wishing for. Dearmas where in florida you from.
Member Since: August 12, 2007 Posts: 2 Comments: 2838
123. StormHype
2:54 AM GMT on February 12, 2008
So the media reflected majority of US citizens were just as concerned about UFO's as they were global warming. Seems GW theory is a hard sell when big chunk of the US is seeing relentless sub-zero temps and wind chills.
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122. dearmas
9:54 PM EST on February 11, 2008
Hi all, looks like we here in Florida are in for some bad weather Tuesday and Wed
Member Since: August 23, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 120
121. severstorm
9:52 PM EST on February 11, 2008
Taz, I could not of said it any better than that so true!!!!
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119. sebastianjer
9:51 PM EST on February 11, 2008
Thanks for your response Michael, I had to do a proposal for work and just got back on. Appreciate the info

JER
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116. weatherboykris
2:49 AM GMT on February 12, 2008
More mail for you Adrian....the NWS must have hacked my account and spied my mail,LMAO.
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115. hurricane23
9:47 PM EST on February 11, 2008
Just updated miami NWS Discussion!

MODEL
GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SUGGEST THAT THE LOW LEVEL WIND PROFILE WILL
BE MORE FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE WEATHER INCLUDING AN ISOLATED CHANCE
FOR TORNADOES LATE TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT...THE GUIDANCE HAS
BEEN VERY CONSISTENT WITH THIS SCENARIO OVER THE LAST SEVERAL DAYS.
AND ON WEDNESDAY THE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR PROFILE IS MORE
UNIDIRECTIONAL WHICH COULD FAVOR A MORE DAMAGING WIND SCENARIO.
LASTLY...THE GUIDANCE INDICATES THAT SOME DRIER AIR MAY MAKE IT INTO
THE MID LEVELS TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...ALTHOUGH RECENT SAT IMAGERY
SHOWS WIDESPREAD CLOUDINESS OVER THE CENTRAL GULF AND MOVING
EASTWARD TOWARD THE FLORIDA PENINSULA...SO IT SEEMS HARD TO PUT MUCH
CREDENCE IN THIS. HOWEVER...IF SOME DRIER AIR IN THE MID LEVELS DOES
HAPPEN...THIS WILL ALSO GIVE SOME CHANCE OF A HAIL THREAT AND ALSO
INCREASES THE CHANCE FOR A DAMAGING WIND SCENARIO.


We'll see if it all comes together tommorow.The rain is very much welcomed without the severe part.
Member Since: May 14, 2006 Posts: 8 Comments: 13750
114. hahaguy
9:45 PM EST on February 11, 2008
so i take it it's suppose to get bad later tommorow through wednesday
Member Since: August 12, 2007 Posts: 2 Comments: 2838
112. Tazmanian
6:44 PM PST on February 11, 2008
care full what you wish for
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111. BahaHurican
9:40 PM EST on February 11, 2008
Anyway, I'm out for the night like a light in flight.

Hmmm . . .

Anyway, u West Coasties stay safe, and hopefully FL will get lots of needed rain without the kind of dire weather we saw last week . ..
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110. FLWeatherFreak91
9:43 PM EST on February 11, 2008
Yes. the new update came out. I like this one more...

DISCUSSION...CONTINUING TO MONITOR DEVELOPMENTS WITH REGARD TO SVR
WX POTENTIAL FOR LATER TOMORROW AND TOMORROW NIGHT. IN THE
MEANTIME...TONIGHT WILL BE TRANQUIL WITH INCREASING CLOUDS (MAINLY
HIGH CLOUDS) AND LOWS RANGING FROM THE MID 40S NORTH TO MID-UPR 50S
CENTRAL AND SOUTH. BASICALLY...NO CHANGES IN THE SHORT TERM.

THINGS STILL APPEAR TO BE COMING TOGETHER FOR SVR WX POTENTIAL LATE
TOMORROW AFTERNOON THROUGH TOMORROW NIGHT. WATER VAPOR SHOWS A
VORTICITY FEATURE OVER THE SW GULF...AND MODELS TRACK THIS FEATURE
NE ACROSS THE GULF TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND TOWARD THE FL PENINSULA
TOMORROW EVENING. THIS SYSTEM THEN PROGGED TO MERGE WITH THE SHORT
WAVE AND COLD FRONT PRESENTLY MOVING ESE ACROSS N TX. THE INITIAL
LOW AND ASSOC JET ENERGY MAY PROVIDE THE FIRST ROUND OF ACTIVITY...
THEN ANOTHER ROUND WITH THE LARGER SCALE FRONTAL SYSTEM TUESDAY
NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING. THE EXACT DETAILS ARE STILL UNCERTAIN
WITH REGARD TO TIMING AND STRENGTH OF THESE FEATURES...BUT
FORECAST SOUNDINGS AND MODEL PROGS DO SHOW RAPID INCREASE IN
MOISTURE THROUGH THE DAY TOMORROW...AND EVEN MORE IMPRESSIVE IS
THE JET ENERGY PROGGED TO CROSS THE REGION ASSOC WITH BOTH
FEATURES. AS SUCH...DECENT RAIN EVENT IS NEARLY A CERTAINTY...WITH
GOOD CHANCE FOR AT LEAST ONE OR MAYBE TWO ROUNDS OF STRONG TO
SEVERE TSTMS. RESIDENT NEED TO STAY AWARE AND ALERT OF THIS WEATHER
SITUATION...AND MAKE SURE YOUR ALERT FEATURE ON YOUR NOAA WX RADIO
IS TURNED ON...ESP GIVEN THE POTENTIAL FOR A NIGHT TIME SVR WX
EVENT TUESDAY NIGHT.
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109. weatherboykris
2:41 AM GMT on February 12, 2008
mail call for Adrian.
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108. hahaguy
9:41 PM EST on February 11, 2008
we havent had a severe storm in a while it's going to be cool.
Member Since: August 12, 2007 Posts: 2 Comments: 2838
107. FLWeatherFreak91
9:39 PM EST on February 11, 2008
I can't wait 'til the Storm
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106. hahaguy
9:38 PM EST on February 11, 2008
o i'm in port st lucie
Member Since: August 12, 2007 Posts: 2 Comments: 2838
105. FLWeatherFreak91
9:38 PM EST on February 11, 2008
LOL. I'm in North Tampa
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104. hahaguy
9:37 PM EST on February 11, 2008
where in fl are you freak
Member Since: August 12, 2007 Posts: 2 Comments: 2838
103. BahaHurican
9:27 PM EST on February 11, 2008
BTW, along with 4 invests in the South Indian basin (including TCs Hondo and Ivan) and one in the South Pacific basin, there is now an invest in the North Pacific, off the Philappines. This is a good reminder that the WPac TC season runs year-round, and that La Nina years tend to enhance the chances of year-round formation due to the pile-up of warmer waters there.

NRL

Notice the Pacific SSTs . . .




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102. FLWeatherFreak91
9:32 PM EST on February 11, 2008
Thanks hurricane...I'm sure we'll have alot to talk about after this Storm goes by
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101. hurricane23
9:30 PM EST on February 11, 2008
99. FLWeatherFreak91 9:25 PM EST on February 11, 2008
Hurricane...is that the Miami discussion?

Sure is....

It was issued earlier this afternnoon as some models have changed there tune on what we might see down here.Feel free to use my florida observation page as this disturbance gets closer to florida.
Member Since: May 14, 2006 Posts: 8 Comments: 13750
100. BahaHurican
9:17 PM EST on February 11, 2008
STL,

Regarding #79, looking at the large anomolies along the northern Eurasian coast, I'm not surprised we saw the extent of melting over the Artic Ocean that we did last summer. Obviously it's not only the actual hotter summer temps, but also the major differences in expected and actual winter temperatures.

Interesting graphics; thanks for posting!
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99. FLWeatherFreak91
9:25 PM EST on February 11, 2008
Hurricane...is that the Miami discussion?
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98. hurricane23
9:21 PM EST on February 11, 2008
Threat has changed some what as i reported earlier today for extreme south dade.

.WEDNESDAY...A COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE DEVELOPING FRONTAL
SYSTEM OVR SRN PLAINS WILL RAISE EWD TOWARD ERN GULF BY WED
MORNING. LATEST GUIDANCE SUGGEST MOST ENERGY ASSOCIATED WITH THIS
SYSTEM WILL MOVE NE TO MID-ATLANTIC AND WHAT WAS LOOKING LIKE A
GOOD BONA-FIDE SQUALL LINE AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT, NOW LOOKS
SOMEWHAT LESS IMPRESSIVE. MOREOVER...LOW LVL FLOW WILL SHIFT TO SW
LONG BEFORE THE SQUALL LINE GETS HERE. AS IT HAS HAPPENED IN THE
PAST, WHENEVER LOW LVL FLOW TURNS SW AHEAD OF A SQUALL LINE IT
TENDS TO KILL IT. HOWEVER...MODELS STILL SHOW GOOD OMEGA VALUES
WITH MODERATE UPR LVL DIV JUST AHEAD OF THE FRONT. SO, WL STILL GO
WITH THE IDEA OF A LINE OF STORMS MOVING THROUGH THE LOCAL AREA
MAINLY DURING THE MID MORNING HOURS WITH SHOWERS LINGERING THROUGH
THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. FROPA SHOULD BE EXPECTED ON MIA JUST
BEFORE MIDNIGHT WEDNESDAY
.

My feeling is most of the significant energy will ride north of miami dade and broward counties.Still scattered thunderstorms under severe limits seems like a good bet.The rain is very much welcomed for the entire state of florida.

www.AdriansWeather.com
Member Since: May 14, 2006 Posts: 8 Comments: 13750
97. BahaHurican
9:13 PM EST on February 11, 2008
70. MichaelSTL 6:41 PM EST on February 11, 2008
Interesting comparison between December 1988 (when that La Nina peaked) and now:


Didn't I read somewhere yesterday about the PDO (Pacific Decadal Occillation, right) going into a cold phase right now? Wouldn't this make any La Nina even more intense than it otherwise be?

Also, when do you think this La Nina is likely to peak?
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96. FLWeatherFreak91
9:15 PM EST on February 11, 2008
I'm here.
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95. BahaHurican
9:04 PM EST on February 11, 2008
58. cchsweatherman 5:40 PM EST on February 11, 2008
I find the maths and sciences to be quite easy since I'm a very anlaytical person and am able to digest data with relative ease. The pne subject I find to be difficult is English, since I hate reading comprehension.


Approach reading comprehension from an analytical perspective. It's interpreting data, same as you would interpret maps or forecasts; the only real difference is WHAT the data is. It also wouldn't hurt to learn some of the "tricks of the trade" writers use. Then you can teach yourself to recognize them in other people's writing.

It's all "reading", after all.
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94. Buhdog
2:06 AM GMT on February 12, 2008
Where are you freak?
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93. Buhdog
2:03 AM GMT on February 12, 2008
Storm,

My experience is that these fronts never make it as far as predicted and Pt. Charlotte north seem to get most of the squall energy.
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91. FLWeatherFreak91
9:01 PM EST on February 11, 2008
Thanks a ton Storm. ANd to answer Buhdoq's question I'll say that the warm front which should be the first event has the potential to be strong-severe, but only in a few isolated cells which may form. But I expect the most widespread severe weather to be with the cold front early Wednesday morning.
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89. Buhdog
2:01 AM GMT on February 12, 2008
Just as I say ....Storm answers before I Ask!!!! hmmmmmm
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88. Buhdog
1:56 AM GMT on February 12, 2008
which do you predict will be worse? First or second/third line. I am correct that the first is low pressure and afternoon heating combo.....secondly a cold front squall line...right?
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86. sullivanweather
8:47 PM EST on February 11, 2008
Environment Canada Ice Service page has some very interesting animated loops of the northern sea-ice pack that I've been watching over the previous 2 month.

First is a loop of the arctic ice pack from September 7th, 2007 - January 29th, 2008 (.WMV file)

arctic sea-ice animation

The second is an animation of an extremely large fracture that developed in the multi-year ice in the Beaufort Sea.

Beaufort sea-ice fracture
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85. FLWeatherFreak91
8:55 PM EST on February 11, 2008
Wow, I'm almost as anxious for Storm's synopsis as I am for the NWS discussion. LOL
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84. FLWeatherFreak91
8:52 PM EST on February 11, 2008
83. Buhdog 8:51 PM EST on February 11, 2008 Hide this comment.
In the past it seems that alot of this energy and sever weather goes to central and north Florida. Rarely do we see the bulk....I hope we don't here. (Cape Coral SWFL)

I would expect all of the peninsula to be hit the same except for the extreme south where it shouldn't be as bad
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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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