Science Debate 2008

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 7:06 PM GMT on February 11, 2008

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The issues of global warming and climate change are important to many voters, yet the media has done a poor job asking the U.S. presidential candidates about these topics. In a study quoted by The Boston Globe, in 2007 the major TV networks asked presidential candidates 2,679 questions. Of those questions, only three were about global warming--the same number of questions that were asked about UFOs. With the presidential race narrowed down to four main candidates--Hillary Clinton, Mike Huckabee, John McCain, and Barack Obama--it's time that the candidates' views on climate change be given more attention. To address this need, the four major candidates have been invited to participate in Science Debate 2008, a verbal debate to be held on April 18, 2008, at Philadelphia's Franklin Institute. The debate is cosponsored by the American Association for the Advancement of Science (AAAS), the Council on Competitiveness, the National Academy of Sciences, the National Academy of Engineering, and the Institute of Medicine. Nearly 100 leading American universities and other organizations have signed on to promote the effort, along with many prominent scientists, writers, and members of Congress. The debate is designed to discover the candidates' views on many science-related topics, such as climate change, clean energy, health care, science education and technology in schools, scientific integrity, GM agriculture, transportation infrastructure, the genome, data privacy, intellectual property, pandemic diseases, the health of the oceans, water resources, stem cells, conservation and species loss, population, and the space program.

We need your help to make this debate happen! Contact the campaigns of the candidates to ask them to participate in the debate, sign a petition to approve of the debate, or write a letter to the editor of your local paper. Chris Mooney, who authored the excellent 2007 book, Storm World: Hurricanes, Politics, and the Battle Over Global Warming, is one of the leaders of the initiative, and has posted links one can use to help with these tasks, in his blog, The Intersection. Thanks for helping out!

Jeff Masters

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234. NEwxguy
7:32 PM GMT on February 12, 2008

Tornado Warning

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

TORNADO WARNING
FLC009-122000-
/O.NEW.KMLB.TO.W.0001.080212T1924Z-080212T2000Z/

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
TORNADO WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
224 PM EST TUE FEB 12 2008

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN MELBOURNE HAS ISSUED A

* TORNADO WARNING FOR...
NORTHEASTERN BREVARD COUNTY IN EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA...
THIS INCLUDES THE CITIES OF...PATRICK AIR FORCE BASE...MERRITT
ISLAND...PORT CANAVERAL...CAPE CANAVERAL...PLAYALINDA
BEACH...PATRICK AIRFORCE BASE...HAULOVER CANAL...COCOA BEACH...


* UNTIL 300 PM EST

* AT 218 PM EST...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A TORNADO NEAR PATRICK
AIRFORCE BASE...MOVING NORTH AT 20 MPH.

* THE TORNADO WILL BE NEAR...
CAPE CANAVERAL BY 235 PM EST...
JETTY PARK AND PORT CANAVERAL BY 240 PM EST...
9 MILES EAST OF KENNEDY SPACE CENTER BY 300 PM EST...

HEAVY RAINFALL MAY OBSCURE THIS TORNADO. TAKE COVER NOW! IF YOU WAIT
TO SEE OR HEAR IT COMING...IT MAY BE TOO LATE TO GET TO A SAFE
PLACE. A FUNNEL CLOUD WAS REPORTED EAST OF THE INTERSECTION OF
STATE ROAD 520 AND U.S. 1 OVER THE INTRACOASTAL WATERS.

Member Since: September 6, 2007 Posts: 886 Comments: 15947
233. MichaelSTL
7:31 PM GMT on February 12, 2008
222. NEwxguy 1:11 PM CST on February 12, 2008
Pat,I agree tornadoes occur in any month of the year,what has struck me this year is the magnitude of the outbreaks which resemble the spring outbreaks.


We can expect to see a lot more... even last year was the worst since 1999 (La Nina was only just developing during the tornado season), 2008 has already had more violent (F4-F5) tornadoes than 2005 and 2006 combined:


La Nina, Warmth Mix for Tornadoes
By SETH BORENSTEIN – 5 days ago

WASHINGTON (AP) — All the right ingredients combined for Tuesday's killer tornadoes, especially warm moist air and a shifting weather pattern courtesy of the La Nina phenomenon. Just one thing was off: The calendar.

The Feb. 5 killer tornadoes — at least the 15th deadliest U.S. outbreak on record — had all the earmarks of a batch of twisters usually seen in March, said several meteorologists.

It was farther north than most February tornadoes and stronger, said Joseph Schaefer, director of the Storm Prediction Center in Norman, Okla.

Tornadoes do happen in February, but a study by Schaefer two years ago found that winter tornadoes in parts of the South occur more frequently and are stronger when there is a La Nina, a cooling of Pacific waters that is the flip side of the better known El Nino. In 1971, a deadlier February outbreak in the Mississippi Delta killed 121 people.

But Tuesday's weather violence, which killed at least 50 people, was noteworthy. February tornadoes usually pop up near the Gulf Coast, not in Kentucky or Tennessee, said University of Oklahoma meteorology professor Howard Bluestein.

Part of the explanation is record warmth. It was 84 degrees in Oklahoma before the storm front moved through on its path of destruction. On Tuesday, 97 weather stations broke or tied records in Arkansas, Alabama, Tennessee and Kentucky — the hardest-hit states.

Meteorologists are quick to say they cannot blame global warming. There is not enough good data over enough years with weather events as small as tornadoes, to draw such conclusions.

But there were plenty of the standard ingredients for tornado formation Tuesday: a strong storm system coming from the west (this one buried parts of Colorado in snow); warm air near the ground; high winds; and warm moist air coming north from the Gulf of Mexico.

While La Nina doesn't specifically cause tornadoes, it helps shift the jet stream, pushing storms from the West and moisture from the Gulf into the necessary collision course over the South, said Schaefer.

Like El Nino, it happens every few years, and it's been changing global weather patterns for a few months now, strengthening in January, said Mike Halpert, deputy director of the Climate Prediction Center, which monitors La Nina.

Preliminary figures for January — the numbers usually drop after closer scrutiny — show 136 tornadoes, five tornado deaths and three killer tornadoes. The average from 1997-2007 is 40 tornadoes, three deaths, and three killer tornadoes. The record for most tornadoes was 212 in January 1999.

Between 1997 and 2007, the average February has 30 tornadoes, killing 9 people. Early reports tallied 68 tornadoes so far this month.

"We're off to a big start for the year," said Greg Carbin, a meteorologist at the storm center.

Get used to this because the patterns that lead to tornado outbreaks seem to be here for a while, meteorologists said.

"As long as the pattern remains the same it can be very active," Schaefer said. "It's not a time to let down your guard."
Member Since: February 22, 2006 Posts: 94 Comments: 32744
232. atmoaggie
7:30 PM GMT on February 12, 2008
Pat,I agree tornadoes occur in any month of the year,what has struck me this year is the magnitude of the outbreaks which resemble the spring outbreaks.

I am of mind that more shear, aka a persistent La Nina, is responsible. More in direction than speed. (Remember you tropical nuts shear bad for TCs, but required for Nados)

Here is the running total through Saturday as compared to the 3 previous years and a running 10-year average:
Member Since: August 16, 2007 Posts: 6 Comments: 12463
231. NEwxguy
7:28 PM GMT on February 12, 2008
La and Miss. are cooking right now.
Member Since: September 6, 2007 Posts: 886 Comments: 15947
229. TheCaneWhisperer
7:23 PM GMT on February 12, 2008
Storms a building! Interesting storm tracks.
228. TampaSpin
7:23 PM GMT on February 12, 2008
227. JFLORIDA 2:19 PM EST on February 12, 2008
WOW

5 active tornado warnings. and its only 2 pm


This is looking bad for Florida because the dynamics of the Low in the GOM is not a player very much in Louisana IMO
Member Since: September 2, 2007 Posts: 179 Comments: 20448
227. JFLORIDA
7:19 PM GMT on February 12, 2008
WOW

5 active tornado warnings. and its only 2 pm - look at the storms capable too.
Member Since: May 22, 2006 Posts: 188 Comments: 24743
226. fabrizziosandoval
7:17 PM GMT on February 12, 2008
ALERTA
Get your weather update on:
metmex.wordpress.com



INFORMACIÓN DEL SISMO DE 6.6ºR EN CHIAPAS A TRAVÉS DE METMEX // EARTHQUAKE INFORMATION IN MEXICO AVAILABLE ON METMEX

MetMEX Blog
Member Since: July 25, 2007 Posts: 7 Comments: 199
225. TampaSpin
7:16 PM GMT on February 12, 2008
lol
Member Since: September 2, 2007 Posts: 179 Comments: 20448
224. NEwxguy
7:14 PM GMT on February 12, 2008
223. TampaSpin 7:13 PM GMT on February 12, 2008
NEwx,
Never ready for a rough nite sorta like your Patriots.........lol

lol,super bowl was more like an EF5 tornado for us
Member Since: September 6, 2007 Posts: 886 Comments: 15947
223. TampaSpin
7:13 PM GMT on February 12, 2008
NEwx,
Never ready for a rough nite sorta like your Patriots.........lol
Member Since: September 2, 2007 Posts: 179 Comments: 20448
222. NEwxguy
7:11 PM GMT on February 12, 2008
Pat,I agree tornadoes occur in any month of the year,what has struck me this year is the magnitude of the outbreaks which resemble the spring outbreaks.
Member Since: September 6, 2007 Posts: 886 Comments: 15947
221. JFLORIDA
7:09 PM GMT on February 12, 2008
Yipes Mississippi!!!!
Member Since: May 22, 2006 Posts: 188 Comments: 24743
220. Patrap
7:04 PM GMT on February 12, 2008
One year ago tonight a F2 Tornado tore trough uptown New Orleans, Lakeview and Killed one in a FEMA trailer in Ponchatrain Park.It damaged Hundreds of Homes...severe weather and Torndaoes are not uncommon in Feb in Dixie. What made last week so terrible was the number of Long track twisters. that was unusual and deadly as we all saw.
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 426 Comments: 129089
218. NEwxguy
7:00 PM GMT on February 12, 2008
hey,Tampa,how's it going,you people ready for a rough night?
Member Since: September 6, 2007 Posts: 886 Comments: 15947
217. TampaSpin
6:58 PM GMT on February 12, 2008
Pressure is falling everywhere in the GOM
Conditions at 42003 as of
(12:49 pm EST)
1749 GMT on 02/12/2008: Unit of Measure:
Wind Direction (WDIR): SE ( 130 deg true )
Wind Speed (WSPD): 13.6 kts
Wind Gust (GST): 17.5 kts
Wave Height (WVHT): 5.6 ft
Dominant Wave Period (DPD): 7 sec
Average Period (APD): 6.0 sec
Mean Wave Direction (MWD): SE ( 144 deg true )
Atmospheric Pressure (PRES): 29.94 in
Pressure Tendency (PTDY): -0.06 in ( Falling )
Air Temperature (ATMP): 72.7 °F
Water Temperature (WTMP): 77.5 °F
Dew Point (DEWP): 63.0 °F
Member Since: September 2, 2007 Posts: 179 Comments: 20448
216. NEwxguy
6:53 PM GMT on February 12, 2008
That line moving through louisiana and into alabama has quite a bow in it,must be some nasty winds when that moves through,and the storms in Florida are building too,looks to be a bad afternoon and night for a lot of people.This has been a crazy February,its more like March or April.
Member Since: September 6, 2007 Posts: 886 Comments: 15947
215. LuvsStorms
6:49 PM GMT on February 12, 2008
looks like Beaumont is gonna get slammed pretty hard too
Member Since: September 1, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 133
213. NEwxguy
6:46 PM GMT on February 12, 2008
* Tornado Warning for...
central Jefferson Parish in southeast Louisiana...
northwestern Plaquemines Parish in southeast Louisiana...

* until 1245 PM CST

* at 1209 PM CST...National Weather Service Doppler radar indicated a
severe thunderstorm capable of producing a tornado near Myrtle
Grove...or about 14 miles south of Belle Chasse...moving northeast
at 15 mph.

* The tornado will be near...
rural Plaquemines Parish at 1230 PM CST
Member Since: September 6, 2007 Posts: 886 Comments: 15947
212. JFLORIDA
6:43 PM GMT on February 12, 2008
Louisiana is really getting hit.

The GFS and NAM have a bad area developing in the Gulf this evening.


Pressure is already dropping out there and winds are kicking up.

Station 42003 - E GULF 262 nm South of Panama City, FL
Member Since: May 22, 2006 Posts: 188 Comments: 24743
211. Patrap
6:43 PM GMT on February 12, 2008
Nasty cells Se of me here ...Tornado Warning for Lower Jefferson Parish..Belle Chase area.
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 426 Comments: 129089
210. TampaSpin
6:43 PM GMT on February 12, 2008
CCHS is a secondary low forming in the GOM. It appears so to me.....JMO
Member Since: September 2, 2007 Posts: 179 Comments: 20448
209. LuvsStorms
6:42 PM GMT on February 12, 2008
report from west central Louisiana, we had some pretty good sized hail with that squall line, but unfortunately it seems to be strengthing as it moves south.
Member Since: September 1, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 133
208. yamil20
6:41 PM GMT on February 12, 2008
no i got no time been busy good to hear from you
Member Since: June 10, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 478
205. yamil20
6:33 PM GMT on February 12, 2008
good afternoon everyone!!!
Member Since: June 10, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 478
204. cchsweatherman
6:33 PM GMT on February 12, 2008
Right now, my main concern is for Louisiana as an intense squall line with an obvious bow-echo has developed during the day with nos signs of weakening at this time.
Member Since: April 14, 2007 Posts: 8 Comments: 5169
200. cchsweatherman
6:28 PM GMT on February 12, 2008
I would anticipate the worst weather in Miami-Dade and Broward counties at two separate time periods. One occurring between 6 and 11 PM tonight and another between 9AM and 2PM tomorrow, where there will likely be the worst weather occuring.
Member Since: April 14, 2007 Posts: 8 Comments: 5169
199. cchsweatherman
6:27 PM GMT on February 12, 2008
Good afternoon JFV. Hope you are ready for a very active night.
Member Since: April 14, 2007 Posts: 8 Comments: 5169
197. cchsweatherman
6:23 PM GMT on February 12, 2008
DELETED
Member Since: April 14, 2007 Posts: 8 Comments: 5169
196. Skyepony (Mod)
6:25 PM GMT on February 12, 2008
Tornado (waterspout) signature east of Kennedy Space Center.
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194. quasigeostropic
1:22 PM EST on February 12, 2008
Bill Gray is way smarter than most....but it doesnt take a genius to realize man-made GW is pure propoganda!!!LOL
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193. dearmas
1:19 PM EST on February 12, 2008
Tampa lol, that was a good one
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192. TampaSpin
1:15 PM EST on February 12, 2008
It looks like a 3way collision on I4 is going to happen.
Member Since: September 2, 2007 Posts: 179 Comments: 20448
191. groundswell
6:11 PM GMT on February 12, 2008
cchs-good analysis
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190. cchsweatherman
6:08 PM GMT on February 12, 2008
Here we go South Florida! Let the games begin.
Member Since: April 14, 2007 Posts: 8 Comments: 5169
189. dearmas
1:02 PM EST on February 12, 2008
looks like we here in Tampa are in for some nasty weather, my radio is ready
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188. MacLorry
5:47 PM GMT on February 12, 2008
U.S. Senate Report: Over 400 Prominent Scientists Disputed Man-Made Global Warming Claims in 2007
Senate Report Debunks "Consensus"
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187. MacLorry
5:27 PM GMT on February 12, 2008
The Wharton Econometrics Forecasting Associates study estimated Kyoto would cost $300 billion annually and would cost 2.4 million U.S. jobs and reduce GDP by 3.2 percent.

The son of Kyoto will be far more costly. The goals of energy independence and energy efficiency are good for the U.S. However, many confuse these goals with the carbon cap and trading schemes proposed under the global warming scam. Don’t be fooled into supporting that junk science based scam
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186. JFLORIDA
4:57 PM GMT on February 12, 2008
There could be TWO tornadoes in western La. Now
Member Since: May 22, 2006 Posts: 188 Comments: 24743
185. JFLORIDA
5:00 PM GMT on February 12, 2008
hobbling the U.S. economy

Fuel efficiency mandates a few years back would have saved the US auto sector. As energy becomes more critical (as it will) technology involved in its most frugal use will be what is desired.

We wouldn't be in so involved in the Mideast were in not for our Oil obsession.

I don't see any sound reason for the US to Not reduce energy consumption via mandate. From economic to strategic to environmental.

As a matter of fact Id say not acting would be disastrous form an "innovation" standpoint.
Member Since: May 22, 2006 Posts: 188 Comments: 24743
184. cchsweatherman
4:52 PM GMT on February 12, 2008
Just completed my analysis of this system. Based upon satellite imagery, it appears the front has begun to have some effect on the tropical low in the GOM as a slight northward tilt has been shown on satellite imagery. Dew points have been steadily increasing over mainland South Florida within the past several hours indicating tropical moisture from the warm front has begun to infiltrate the area. Something that should be highly noted is that wind shear has become much stronger over the system and has become undirectional. this will allow for a higher wind damage and tornado threat, primarily for Southern Florida from late this evening into tomorrow early afternoon. The convection in asscoiation with this system has shown some signs of waning, but it is normal for storms over tropical waters. The front now has developed an obvious bow-echo effect as a strong squall line has been rapidly developing as indicated on radar. I have witnessed what appears to be upper-level rotation with these cells imbedded in the line mainly in northern Louisiana. Upper level convergence has increased to a level that easily supports supercell development and I have seen the wind fields expand with this front.

Based upon my analysis, I can conclude that South Florida (and the entire state for that matter) will experience a severe weather outbreak primarily lasting from around 6PM this evening to around 2PM tomorrow afternoon as two separate storms will impact the area. I have predicted the worst weather and highest tornado and wind damage threat to be located over South Florida and especially Southeast Florida where the sea breeze will add significant fuel to these storms.

I would advise all Floridians to activate their NOAA Weather Radios and leave a television on during the night so that you can receive any warnings that may come overnight. I anticipate Tornado Watches to be posted for central and southern Florida tonight.
Member Since: April 14, 2007 Posts: 8 Comments: 5169

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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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