Dr. Jeff Masters' WunderBlog

All things are relative..especially weather..to an observer.Here..the winter has been a cold one. Kinda like what normal is for New Orleans,weather wise for winter.

stl i think the problem is when people see normal they think it abnormal cause its been a long time since we had a normal winter

good evening everyone,have any of you know where the severe weather expected for florida next week will be located(north florida or south florida)

Pat, so glad to hear that, man! So glad. Soon, we'll get to catch up. Hey, and btw, I'm closer that way now, and soon, well, maybe we'll get to share that cold one, soon. Maybe coming down that way later in the week even! Take care man!

Ya'll, I almost enjoyed the AGW discussion! It was a bit fun, but I'm out - tired and got to work big time tomorrow! I hope everyone has a good week! :)

Well..were all moved out of the trailer and living in a statly Home Uptown.Were really very happy about it.Like being reborn again.

yamil over the panhadle towards ne with a second area bubbling up over se as it moves over and off ne fla

no more rollin in the wind in that thing good

thanks for your info keeperofthegate

Re 207

That is a very interesting article Saint. Hate to point out the obvious though, here is a statement from one of the scientist,

"If we understand how the dust functions here, we will have a better idea of how the ecosystem in the North Atlantic takes up carbon dioxide, how quickly it takes it up and how this changes over time."

How can they model future affect of CO2 on climate specifically temperatures, if we do not know the answer to this very basic question?
If we do not know how much and at what rate Co2 is absorbed in the oceans and how it changes over time, based on the simplest of all influences, Sahara sand how can we determine how it is going to remain in the atmosphere given many variables?

For example, let's say global warming causes the Sahara to grow, as some predict, which causes more dust to be deposited in the Atlantic. This according to the article will cause an increase in the plankton, which will absorb more CO2. Does it reach an equilibrium?
It seems like it must at some point, but what point? But the question I have, is how can the climate models possibly even begin to account for this and a thousand other even more important variables? I don't believe they can, as Lat would say, it's all just guesses.

JER

So true Saint

At what point does the temperature not keeping up with CO2 look suspicious though? :) Hope you have a safe trip

JER

hey keep and pat


welcome back pat

I have a question for weather radio users, my alert radio activates in the middle of the night when we are having a winter storm warning, 12 hours in advance. Thats right the storm doesn't arrive until 12 hours after, the NWS sets off the alert radios. The last three times the NWS set off the radios were 3:15a, 3:31a, and 4:15a. I thought these radio alerts were to warm people a tornado was approaching them and for people to take cover. This is totally B.S. in my opionion. Now my family wants to shut down the alert radio, because it activates 14 to 24 hours in advance of a snowfall, they do have a point. Am I dealing with an overzelous forcaster, or am I just crying because these radios do not re-set themselves. I would like comment from other in here. Feel free. Oh by the way the NWS office that sets these alert radios off is in Indianapolis, We do have tornados here too! it's inportant to have the radios.

Good afternoon from Northern Ireland.

Sorry to hear about that terrible breakout of tornadoes.

Weather here in Ballymena is finally settled the first in monthes as high pressure dominates currently clear skys beautiful sunshine 1030 pressure and 10c 50f nice. Better than most of last summer!

Good afternoon from Northern Ireland.

Sorry to hear about that terrible breakout of tornadoes.

Weather here in Ballymena is finally settled the first in monthes as high pressure dominates currently clear skys beautiful sunshine 1030 pressure and 10c 50f nice. Better than most of last summer!

La Nina will have cooling effect on mid level jet. Could be the a major factor in triggering severe wx over FL. The airmass that was keeping us so warm is not far south of the keys, colder air not far north too. If all factors meet and timing is right, this will be big storm for FL.

Yes Ivan...I'm seeing this to be a big storm as well, but where in Fl do you see the highest potential for severe weather? Usually I would say further north, yet with this storm it appears there will be an extreme amount of pre-frontal moisture which could trigger severe weather further south. What do you think?

If all factors meet and timing is right, this will be big storm for FL.

Usually I would say further north, yet with this storm it appears there will be an extreme amount of pre-frontal moisture which could trigger severe weather further south. What do you think?

I think its a little to early to tell at this point until the system gets closer to Florida tommorow (in terms of where the most impact will be) and it will be rather complex situation to predict as several factors are in play; there is also the possibility that it will only be a t-storm/rain event, with no severe weather as well, so I think it will be touch and go........The bottom line is that we always need as much rain as possible this time of the year and a best case scenario (for South Florida) would be lots of rain around Lake O so that the resevior can replenish as much as possible in light of potential drought areas down there as we start getting into Spring.............

Thanks guys. I'm just North of Tampa so I'll keep watch.

Back in 1991, before Al Gore first shouted that the Earth was in the balance, the Danish Meteorological Institute released a study using data that went back centuries that showed that global temperatures closely tracked solar cycles.

To many, those data were convincing. Now, Canadian scientists are seeking additional funding for more and better "eyes" with which to observe our sun, which has a bigger impact on Earth's climate than all the tailpipes and smokestacks on our planet combined.

And they're worried about global cooling, not warming.

Kenneth Tapping, a solar researcher and project director for Canada's National Research Council, is among those looking at the sun for evidence of an increase in sunspot activity.

Solar activity fluctuates in an 11-year cycle. But so far in this cycle, the sun has been disturbingly quiet. The lack of increased activity could signal the beginning of what is known as a Maunder Minimum, an event which occurs every couple of centuries and can last as long as a century.

Such an event occurred in the 17th century. The observation of sunspots showed extraordinarily low levels of magnetism on the sun, with little or no 11-year cycle.

This solar hibernation corresponded with a period of bitter cold that began around 1650 and lasted, with intermittent spikes of warming, until 1715. Frigid winters and cold summers during that period led to massive crop failures, famine and death in Northern Europe.

Tapping reports no change in the sun's magnetic field so far this cycle and warns that if the sun remains quiet for another year or two, it may indicate a repeat of that period of drastic cooling of the Earth, bringing massive snowfall and severe weather to the Northern Hemisphere.

Tapping oversees the operation of a 60-year-old radio telescope that he calls a "stethoscope for the sun." But he and his colleagues need better equipment.

In Canada, where radio-telescopic monitoring of the sun has been conducted since the end of World War II, a new instrument, the next-generation solar flux monitor, could measure the sun's emissions more rapidly and accurately.

As we have noted many times, perhaps the biggest impact on the Earth's climate over time has been the sun.

For instance, researchers at the Max Planck Institute for Solar Research in Germany report the sun has been burning more brightly over the last 60 years, accounting for the 1 degree Celsius increase in Earth's temperature over the last 100 years.

R. Timothy Patterson, professor of geology and director of the Ottawa-Carleton Geoscience Center of Canada's Carleton University, says that "CO2 variations show little correlation with our planet's climate on long, medium and even short time scales."

Rather, he says, "I and the first-class scientists I work with are consistently finding excellent correlations between the regular fluctuations of the sun and earthly climate. This is not surprising. The sun and the stars are the ultimate source of energy on this planet."

Patterson, sharing Tapping's concern, says: "Solar scientists predict that, by 2020, the sun will be starting into its weakest Schwabe cycle of the past two centuries, likely leading to unusually cool conditions on Earth."

"Solar activity has overpowered any effect that CO2 has had before, and it most likely will again," Patterson says. "If we were to have even a medium-sized solar minimum, we could be looking at a lot more bad effects than 'global warming' would have had."

In 2005, Russian astronomer Khabibullo Abdusamatov made some waves — and not a few enemies in the global warming "community" — by predicting that the sun would reach a peak of activity about three years from now, to be accompanied by "dramatic changes" in temperatures.

A Hoover Institution Study a few years back examined historical data and came to a similar conclusion.

"The effects of solar activity and volcanoes are impossible to miss. Temperatures fluctuated exactly as expected, and the pattern was so clear that, statistically, the odds of the correlation existing by chance were one in 100," according to Hoover fellow Bruce Berkowitz.

The study says that "try as we might, we simply could not find any relationship between industrial activity, energy consumption and changes in global temperatures."

The study concludes that if you shut down all the world's power plants and factories, "there would not be much effect on temperatures."

But if the sun shuts down, we've got a problem. It is the sun, not the Earth, that's hanging in the balance.

From the Max Planck Institute:

"However, researchers at the MPS have shown that the Sun can be responsible for, at most, only a small part of the warming over the last 20-30 years. They took the measured and calculated variations in the solar brightness over the last 150 years and compared them to the temperature of the Earth. Although the changes in the two values tend to follow each other for roughly the first 120 years, the Earth’s temperature has risen dramatically in the last 30 years while the solar brightness has not appreciably increased in this time."

...

"Just how large this role is, must still be investigated, since, according to our latest knowledge on the variations of the solar magnetic field, the significant increase in the Earth’s temperature since 1980 is indeed to be ascribed to the greenhouse effect caused by carbon dioxide," says Prof. Sami K. Solanki, solar physicist and director at the Max Planck Institute for Solar System Research.

re: 213

Sebastianjer:

As a matter of fact, if you look at the CO2 historical charts, they go way down in northern hemisphere summer (where majority of land masses with significant plant life are) and each winter they go up progressively.

Your question could actually be a part of the answer as to why the poles are warming at a faster rate. The equilibrium that you postulate is part of the unknown...

...could increased dust REDUCE hurricanes (but the warm waters would make the ones that did form doozies?)

...could global warming disrupt the "conveyor belt" and cause a northern hemisphere ice age?


The fact that there may be contraverting properties that are unaccounted for does not disprove manmade global warming, though. It just means that maybe the effects won't be the lineal effects predicted, but may go in an unforseen direction.

Morning all :~)

Good to see everyone. Just getting over the flue here...Arghh...Hope no one else has had to deal with this mess. Ran through the family here...

Anywho, Interesting article mgreen...Saw GatorGrrl post on the same subject a week or two ago.

I do think that as our masses grow so does the strain we put on our environment. That said, we should take efforts to improve our energy usage and production efficiency. As well as being very cautious as to how we use our other resources. Example being, if this global cooling does take place, our energy consumption will no doubt go up. How long until we exhaust oil supplies?

All of this does go to show how little we understand about our environment and how quickly what we think we understand can change, and all of this is part of what makes our Pale Blue Dot so fascinating...

Ok, off my soap box, and off to enjoy the wunderful day before this couple of days of weather move in.

Y'all have a great day ☺

Quick Links-Imagery, forecast models, wind data, and much more all from one easy to navigate page.

StormW

Is it unusual for the A/B high to be anchored in the area its normally located during summer time? Could that possibly affect the potential tracking of tropical cyclones in the upcoming hurricane season?

Depends on exact track of Low and timing. My guess is North of Lake O but this one of those rare ones that could hit S.Fl as hard as everybody else. I am usually skeptical of trailing cold fronts bringing major rain south of Orlando but this is the low itself and has several ingeredients that if mixed right could make this one stronger. It is all timing now. Worth watching for whole peninsula. (I am usually the last one expect major weather event during S.Fl winter.)

The question for this storm is how much cold dry air does it wrap around to push into the warm air ahead of it. Daytime heating could play a role too. It is all timing and track.

But exactly what does Ivans Cat say about this situation???

The developing low in the Gulf of Mexico is really getting its act together. Tampa could be in for a rough ride tomorrow evening. Everyone in the state should make sure their weather radios are on tonite before going to bed.

It does look pretty good and a good chunk of Florida will get, at a minimum, some much needed rain over the next few days......

http://www.goes.noaa.gov/HURRLOOPS/gulfir.html

From this morning's HWO for Tampa-

...THUNDERSTORM IMPACT...
TUESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH WEDNESDAY THERE WILL BE A CHANCE OF
STRONG TO POSSIBLY SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS AS DEEPENING MOISTURE
ADVECTING INTO THE AREA COMBINES WITH A SERIES OF UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCES AND A STRONG LOW-LEVEL JET AHEAD OF AND ALONG A COLD
FRONT TO MOVE ACROSS THE REGION. THE POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR SOME
STORMS TO BECOME STRONG TO SEVERE PRODUCING DAMAGING
WINDS...HAIL...AND POSSIBLY TORNADOES.

THE STORM PREDICTION CENTER IN NORMAN OKLAHOMA HAS INCLUDED ALL
OF WESTERN AND SOUTHWESTERN FLORIDA IN A SLIGHT RISK FOR SEVERE
WEATHER ZONE DURING THIS PERIOD. THE MAIN THREAT WITH THE STORMS
WILL BE STRONG WINDS...HOWEVER TORNADOES WILL BE A POSSIBILITY AS
WELL OUT AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT. STAY TUNED FOR THE LATEST
DETAILS ON THIS DEVELOPING SITUATION.

JUST ISSUED

.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT-WEDNESDAY)...THE STAGE IS BEING SET FOR A
VERY ACTIVE...AND POSSIBLY SEVERE...WEATHER SITUATION BEGINNING
LATE TUESDAY AND LINGERING INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING. AN AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE NOW TRACKING EASTWARD OFF THE COAST OF MAINLAND MEXICO
INTO THE GULF...WHILE A COLD FRONT IS DIVING SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE
WESTERN AND CENTRAL US. CURRENT FORECASTS HAVE THE LOW IN THE GULF
OF MEXICO LOSING DEFINITION AND BEING ABSORBED INTO THE
APPROACHING COLD FRONT. SATELLITE TRENDS INDICATE THE POSSIBILITY
OF THE LOW HOLDING TOGETHER A BIT MORE THAN THE FORECAST MODELS
ARE GIVING IT CREDIT. IN EITHER CASE THE REMNANTS OF THIS LOW WILL
COMBINE WITH A WARM FRONT LIFTING NORTHWARD ACROSS THE AREA
TUESDAY AFTERNOON. THIS COMBINATION WILL PRODUCE A GREAT CHANCE OF
PRECIPITATION...AND ENOUGH LOW-LEVEL DYNAMICS WILL EXIST TO FORM
STRONG TO POSSIBLY SEVERE STORMS. IF THE GULF LOW HOLDS TOGETHER
BETTER THE THREAT OF SEVERE WEATHER WILL BE SUBSTANTIALLY MORE.
THIS SITUATION IS BEING FOLLOWED CLOSELY. ANOTHER ROUND OF STRONG
TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IS ANTICIPATED AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT NOW
STREAKING ACROSS THE MIDWEST. THIS FEATURE WILL IMPACT THE AREA
OVERNIGHT TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY. THERE LOOKS TO BE A GOOD AMOUNT
OF MID AND LOW-LEVEL SUPPORT ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT MEANING
THERE IS A GOOD CHANCE AT LEAST ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS WILL BE
GENERATED AHEAD OF THE FRONT. THE MAIN THREAT WITH THE STORMS WILL
BE STRONG WINDS AND HAIL. ALL OF THE AREA REMAINS PAINTED IN A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF SEVERE WEATHER BY THE STORM PREDICTION CENTER IN
NORMAN OKLAHOMA TUESDAY THROUGH EARLY WEDNESDAY.

HERE IS THE LATEST OUTLOOK FROM THE SPC...THOUGH DRY CONDITIONS CURRENTLY
EXIST ACROSS FL...MOISTURE ACROSS THE SRN GULF IS EXPECTED TO LIFT
NWD INTO THE REGION ON TUESDAY...AS SHORTWAVE TROUGH LIFTS FROM
THE GULF NEWD INTO THE REGION. GRADUALLY DESTABILIZING BOUNDARY
LAYER COMBINED WITH LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH APPROACHING SHORTWAVE
TROUGH SHOULD INCREASE THE POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE STORMS AND
POSSIBLE SUPERCELLS. WIND FIELDS MAY EVEN SUPPORT A POTENTIAL OF
ISOLATED TORNADOES...IN ADDITION TO THE RISK FOR LOCALIZED
DAMAGING WIND GUSTS. AS LARGE SCALE TROUGH APPROACHES TUESDAY
NIGHT...A LINE OF STORMS MAY REACH THE WRN FL PENINSULA LATE IN
THE PERIOD...WITH WIND DAMAGE EXPECTED TO BE THE MAIN THREAT.

We have lots of wind today in Tampa.

afternoon all,hope everyone is doing well,looks like Florida is in for some rough times.

223. balmyhammy 2:54 PM EET on February 11, 2008
...

Weather here in Ballymena is finally settled the first in monthes as high pressure dominates currently clear skys beautiful sunshine 1030 pressure and 10c 50f nice. Better than most of last summer!

Greetings from Finland, balmyhammy. Did you also have a very cloudy and warm start of the year in N Ireland? I just checked my weather records for Helsinki this year and I found out that the last day without any precipitation was January 5 (!) and the last day I saw the sun was briefly on January 30. In addition to that January was too warm here. The average daily high was 3°C too warm and the daily low even 5. Last week (February 4-10) has been the warmest compared to the 40 year average, max. 5.9 and min. 9.5°C too warm.

Ice cover of the Baltic sea is at an all-time low: Link (graphic on the left depicts the current condition, on the right the normal condition, grey areas are ice, thickness in cm. The western coastline belongs to Sweden, the eastern to Finland, the easternmost tip to Russia and the southern to Estonia)
Today it was discussed on the radio that it could be the first time that most of Finland's coast will stay icefree the entire winter since the insolation will increase as we are nearing March and after that a stable ice cover cannot form anymore. So no hiking on the frozen sea this year :(

Btw, when talking about the influence of the sun, thanks a lot to mgreen and SydOpus for your input about the solar cycle etc. Really interesting contribution to the ongoing discussion. From the Scandinavian point of view the "big bad word" global warming seems absolutely plausible - bearing in mind the inexistent winter here - but it is always good to be reminded of other factors like the sun which can change the climate on a much larger scale in a short time. Let's just hope that the solar activity remains more or less stable.

.