More tornadoes and flooding for the Midwest

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 4:21 PM GMT on January 09, 2008

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Wild spring-like severe weather continued Tuesday, with eight tornadoes reported in Arkansas, Missouri, and Tennessee. One Arkansas man died in Appleton when a tornado rolled his mobile home. The same tornado gave a cow a wild ride of 3/4 mile before setting it down unharmed. A total of 48 tornadoes have been reported for the two day severe weather outbreak that has affected much of the Midwest. Two people were killed and three critically injured in southern Missouri on Monday near the town of Marshfield, northeast of Springfield, when a tornado rated EF3 with winds of 136-165 mph smashed through a mobile home park. In Wheatland, Wisconsin, just north of the Illinois border, another EF3 tornado damaged or destroyed 55 buildings and injured 13 people. Twelve homes were demolished down to their foundations. The Wheatland tornado was only the second January tornado on record in Wisconsin. The only other one was a long-track F3 in Green and Rock counties on 24 January 1967. Detailed imagery and analysis of this tornado are available from the National Weather Service in Milwaukee and the CIMSS Satellite Blog.


Figure 1. Storm reports for Tuesday compiled by the Storm Prediction Center.

In north central Indiana, heavy rains of up to eight inches triggered floods along the Wabash and Tippicanoe rivers that killed three people and forced the evacuation of hundreds. No further rain or severe weather is expected in the Midwest today. A new storm system on Thursday may bring the risk of severe weather to Alabama and surrounding states on Thursday.


Figure 2. Heavy rains of up to eight inches hit portions of Indiana and Illinois this week. Image credit: NOAA.

Jeff Masters

Missouri tornandos (bikesnapper)
Our news commented that for Springfield there were 63 tornado warnings over 15 hours of which at least 10 passed over the city. It was a very long scary night that these storms kept coming and coming and coming
Missouri tornandos
More Flood in My Backyard! (AndysWench)
Whole addition gone! Only Two hours for a flash flood!
More Flood in My Backyard!
my site (freybear)
my site check it out www.tornadolinks.com All your tornado and weather links, all on one website!
my site

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220. Weather456
3:42 PM AST on January 10, 2008
yeah h23 i saw it....i too agree its a 50/50 chance.
Member Since: July 24, 2005 Posts: 407 Comments: 19076
219. hurricane23
2:38 PM EST on January 10, 2008
Just gave my obs on that feature 456 but thanks anyway.Keep up the good work.

Its funny cause some models actually intensify this somewhat.
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217. Weather456
3:35 PM AST on January 10, 2008
An area of disturb weather is located in the Central Atlantic Subtropics in associated with a surface trough and a low-mid level circulation located near 26N/57.5W based on RGB satellite imagery. Upper level forcing continues enhance low level lift along these surface features and as a result a 1012 mb low has form along the surface trough. Furthermore, low cloud motion indicates a close circulation has already formed or is almost closed off. 20-30 knot wind shear continues to displace the convective mass within a semi-circle of 240 nm northeast of the center. Some development may occur before a cold front absorbs the feature in 48-72 hrs.


by W456
Member Since: July 24, 2005 Posts: 407 Comments: 19076
216. hurricane23
2:17 PM EST on January 10, 2008
Looks interesting but also non-tropical in my opinion.Its 50/50 wheather it gets tagged by NRL.If you ask me i say nope.The vorticity with this feature is somewhat stretched out which again is something going againest its futher development.It appears to be closed at the mid-levels. Visible Loop

Close-up visible from Ramsdis

www.AdriansWeather.com
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215. IKE
1:35 PM CST on January 10, 2008
Afternoon discussion from Tallahassee,FL...

"Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Tallahassee Florida
228 PM EST Wednesday Jan 10 2008


..strong to severe storms possible across much of the region late
this evening through tomorrow morning...


Synopsis...developing severe weather event ongoing across much of
the southeast this afternoon. The 18 UTC surface analysis shows a
999 mb surface low just west of Columbia MO. The warm front extended
from near the Missouri bootheel to just north of
Nashville...southeastward from there into northern Georgia. Numerous
strong to severe storms are ongoing ahead of the main line of storms
associated with the cold front now located across eastern Texas.
This includes one very impressive supercell that has tracked across
southeast Mississippi and much of southwestern Alabama. Tornado
watches are out for areas to our west. A slight risk area remains
over our western counties.


&&


Short term...today-Sat.
Models in overall good agreement with the movement of this storm
system. Vapor imagery and profiler data continue to depict the upper
trough across the eastern plains. Upper level jet continues to be
strong...around 120 knots. The trough is beginning to take on a
negative tilt and bank northeast into central Illinois. Models have
been indicating this for the past few cycles. What remains to be
seen is how quickly this northeast movement takes place. If this
trough shifts rapidly northeast...wind fields will weaken leaving our
forecast area with little if any severe threat. If the movement is
slower...our region could be looking at a good chance for strong to
severe storms.


Current thinking is that our western counties in Alabama/fla Panhandle
will have the best chance for any strong to severe storms. Timing on
this was set on a blend of the NAM/GFS. Storms are already
developing ahead of the main line and this should continue as the
system moves toward our forecast area. Included high end likely probability of precipitation
for our western counties prior to midnight...increasing to
categorical thereafter. Will show a sharper increase in probability of precipitation further
eastward where main activity in fla Big Bend/S Georgia will likely only
be associated with the frontal boundary itself. The NAM is slower
than the GFS and brings the cold front into southeast Alabama/fla
Panhandle by 12z Friday whereas the GFS brings the cold front to
I-75 by 12z Friday. A blend of this solution has been
used...therefore expecting the cold front to get into southwest
Georgia before sunrise on Friday."
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214. IKE
1:31 PM CST on January 10, 2008
Afternoon discussion from north Georgia....

"Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Peachtree City Georgia
220 PM EST Thursday Jan 10 2008


Short term /tonight through Saturday/...
strong cold front moves into County Warning Area tonight with strong low and upper
level jet dynamics associated. Not sure how much instability will be
over area ahead of front but almost any instability will give
possibility for severe thunderstorms that could produce tornadoes or
strong winds. Best chance for severe weather will be on the west side
of the County Warning Area especially northwest Georgia. Strong low level winds will affect the
higher terrain of north Georgia so the Wind Advisory will continue."
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213. HadesGodWyvern (Mod)
7:28 PM GMT on January 10, 2008
Gale Warning Statement
====================================
At 18:00 PM UTC, Tropical Cyclone Elisa Category Two [980 hPa] located near 23.5S 175.5W moving south-southeast at 6 knots but expected to turn and accelerate southeast. Maximum 10 minute sustained winds near the center is 50 knots possibly increasing to 55 knots in the next 12-18 hours.

Storm-Force Winds within 150 miles from the center in the southeast semi-circle and within 50 mile from the center elsewhere.
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212. cchsweatherman
7:23 PM GMT on January 10, 2008
I have an important question. Given the fact that this severe weather outbreak has far exceeded expectations, should I be concerned for my relatives who live in Monroe, GA? They live in just a double-wide home. It looks like there is no slowing down this tornado outbreak at this time. God bless everyone that will be in the path.
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211. georgia325
7:24 PM GMT on January 10, 2008
Thanks JFlorida. I live in North Metro Atlanta. We'll keep an eye on it
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208. georgia325
7:08 PM GMT on January 10, 2008
Is this storm system going to calm down before it gets to Georgia? Or do we need to make plans with our neighbors who have a basement?
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207. HadesGodWyvern (Mod)
7:11 PM GMT on January 10, 2008
Northwest Pacific Ocean

JTWC designated this system as 90W.


WWJP25 Weather Chart (1200 UTC 10Jan)
=====================================

LOW PRESSURE AREA (90W)
06.0N 132.0E - 15-20 knots 1008 hPa

moving west slowly.

PAGASA

Tropical Disturbance Synopsis
===========================
At 2:00PM PST, a low pressure area was estimated based on satellite and surface data at 480 kms east of Mindanao (8.0N 131.0E) embedded along the Intertropical Convergence Zone affecting Visayas and Mindanao region.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
203. weatherboyfsu
6:50 PM GMT on January 10, 2008
Good afternoon,

Another great day in paradise..........The midwest is getting all the action..........and the rain.......
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202. NEwxguy
6:42 PM GMT on January 10, 2008
The National Weather Service in Memphis has issued a

* Tornado Warning for...
northwestern Pontotoc County in northeast Mississippi...
Union County in northeast Mississippi...

* until 130 PM CST

* at 1241 PM CST... National Weather Service Doppler radar indicated a
severe thunderstorm producing a tornado 8 miles south of
Pinedale... or about 14 miles west of Pontotoc... moving northeast at
55 mph.

* Other locations in the warning include but are not limited to
Ecru... New Albany... New Harmony and Keownville.

.In addition to the tornado... This storm is capable of producing
golfball size hail and destructive straight line winds in excess of
70 mph.
Member Since: September 6, 2007 Posts: 887 Comments: 15975
201. cchsweatherman
6:43 PM GMT on January 10, 2008
I cannot believe what I am watching right now.
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199. cchsweatherman
6:35 PM GMT on January 10, 2008
Good afternoon all. To some, that may the most inappropriate greeting considering what has been occuring over the past 48 hours. Like many have said, I cannot remember having this many tornado warnings popping. My prayers are certainly with those in the path of this hellish storm system. Please heed all warnings.
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198. NEwxguy
6:41 PM GMT on January 10, 2008
And the cells and warnings are moving into alabama now
Member Since: September 6, 2007 Posts: 887 Comments: 15975
196. NEwxguy
6:32 PM GMT on January 10, 2008
The storm heading south of winona heading toward columbus mississippi,has really turning.
Member Since: September 6, 2007 Posts: 887 Comments: 15975
195. hurricane24
6:36 PM GMT on January 10, 2008
lake look at the link not the channel

they talking about it
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193. LakeShadow
6:22 PM GMT on January 10, 2008
That local TV link doesnt have any warnings other that "strong storms" forecasted on their weather page and a story about tornadoes from Tuesday. no NWS statement or anything. odd...
maybe I'm missing something?
Member Since: August 10, 2007 Posts: 3 Comments: 2134
190. weathermanwannabe
1:20 PM EST on January 10, 2008
I have not seen so many tornado warnings at once on the radar (in Missisipi)as at present..........Lots of prayers are in order over the next day for all of people in harms way as this dangerous system moves through the US..............
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188. LakeShadow
6:08 PM GMT on January 10, 2008

Rough out there...

that was supposed to be a nexrad map of Miss. with radar and warnings...very cluttered.

didnt post right though.

so here's a link.

Link
Member Since: August 10, 2007 Posts: 3 Comments: 2134
187. NEwxguy
6:11 PM GMT on January 10, 2008
Gotta love the convective outlook page,has the area as a moderate risk.
Member Since: September 6, 2007 Posts: 887 Comments: 15975
186. hurricane24
6:13 PM GMT on January 10, 2008
http://www.wlbt.com/global/video/popup/pop_player.asp?vt1=l&d1=0&ClipId1=mms%3A//a901.l1220632572.c12 206.n.lm.akamaistream.net/D/901/12206/v0001/reflector%3A32572%20&LiveURI=mms%3A//a901.l1220632572.c1 2206.n.lm.akamaistream.net/D/901/12206/v0001/reflector%3A32572%20&h1=WLBT%20Live%20Weather%20Coverag e&at1=Newstream&LiveURITitle=WLBT%20Live%20Weather%20Coverage&LaunchPageAdTag=Newstream&playerVersio n=1&hostPageUrl=http%3A//www.wlbt.com/Global/category.asp%3FC%3D7855%26nav%3Dmenu119_2&rnd=87083187

this link shows the local tv
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185. hurricane24
6:12 PM GMT on January 10, 2008
dime sized hail reported and a new warning for jackson itself
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183. hurricane24
6:06 PM GMT on January 10, 2008
offical tornado touchdown on the i55

i repeat

tornado touchdown on the i55
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181. hurricane24
6:03 PM GMT on January 10, 2008
3 tornados down near joseph , newport and aberdeen junction

around the 5 mile reigon away from each of them!
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180. hurricane24
6:01 PM GMT on January 10, 2008
that was a record on tuesday?

wtf?
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176. hurricane24
5:49 PM GMT on January 10, 2008
new tornado warnings

until 12.45 local time
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175. Bonedog
12:50 PM EST on January 10, 2008
I cant belive the jackson, MS radar is down.

Link

same with Birmingham

Link

Member Since: July 14, 2005 Posts: 14 Comments: 7418
174. Bonedog
12:48 PM EST on January 10, 2008
weather.gov
National Weather Service

Watches, Warnings & Advisories
Local weather forecast by "City, St" or zip code

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Tornado Warning

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
1146 AM CST THU JAN 10 2008

MSC049-101830-
/O.CON.KJAN.TO.W.0009.000000T0000Z-080110T1830Z/
HINDS MS-
1146 AM CST THU JAN 10 2008

...A TORNADO WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1230 PM CST FOR SOUTHERN
HINDS COUNTY...

AT 1146 AM CST...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE METEOROLOGISTS WERE
TRACKING A TORNADO. THIS TORNADO WAS LOCATED NEAR UTICA...OR ABOUT
18 MILES NORTHWEST OF CRYSTAL SPRINGS...MOVING EAST AT 40 MPH.

THE TORNADO WILL BE NEAR...
LEARNED BY 1155 AM CST...
DRY GROVE BY NOON CST...
6 MILES SOUTH OF RAYMOND BY 1205 PM CST...
6 MILES NORTH OF TERRY BY 1210 PM CST...

IN ADDITION TO THE TORNADO...THIS STORM IS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING
QUARTER SIZE HAIL AND DESTRUCTIVE STRAIGHT LINE WINDS.

THE SAFEST PLACE TO BE DURING A TORNADO IS IN A BASEMENT. GET UNDER A
WORKBENCH OR OTHER PIECE OF STURDY FURNITURE. IF NO BASEMENT IS
AVAILABLE...SEEK SHELTER ON THE LOWEST FLOOR OF THE BUILDING IN AN
INTERIOR HALLWAY OR ROOM SUCH AS A CLOSET. USE BLANKETS OR PILLOWS TO
COVER YOUR BODY AND ALWAYS STAY AWAY FROM WINDOWS.

IF IN MOBILE HOMES OR VEHICLES...EVACUATE THEM AND GET INSIDE A
SUBSTANTIAL SHELTER. IF NO SHELTER IS AVAILABLE...LIE FLAT IN THE
NEAREST DITCH OR OTHER LOW SPOT AND COVER YOUR HEAD WITH YOUR HANDS
Member Since: July 14, 2005 Posts: 14 Comments: 7418
172. Bonedog
12:46 PM EST on January 10, 2008
amazing thing is all the warnings are for bonfide tornados. All seem to be saying spotters and mets have spoted and are tracking them.

this is going to be one of those days years from now when you sit down with your grandchildren and tell them about it :(
Member Since: July 14, 2005 Posts: 14 Comments: 7418
171. hurricane24
5:47 PM GMT on January 10, 2008
heinz county might have a tornado down waiting for confirmation from noaa
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170. NEwxguy
5:47 PM GMT on January 10, 2008
Bone,it doesn't bode well for the spring if this kind of pattern holds on.
Member Since: September 6, 2007 Posts: 887 Comments: 15975

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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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