More tornadoes and flooding for the Midwest

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 4:21 PM GMT on January 09, 2008

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Wild spring-like severe weather continued Tuesday, with eight tornadoes reported in Arkansas, Missouri, and Tennessee. One Arkansas man died in Appleton when a tornado rolled his mobile home. The same tornado gave a cow a wild ride of 3/4 mile before setting it down unharmed. A total of 48 tornadoes have been reported for the two day severe weather outbreak that has affected much of the Midwest. Two people were killed and three critically injured in southern Missouri on Monday near the town of Marshfield, northeast of Springfield, when a tornado rated EF3 with winds of 136-165 mph smashed through a mobile home park. In Wheatland, Wisconsin, just north of the Illinois border, another EF3 tornado damaged or destroyed 55 buildings and injured 13 people. Twelve homes were demolished down to their foundations. The Wheatland tornado was only the second January tornado on record in Wisconsin. The only other one was a long-track F3 in Green and Rock counties on 24 January 1967. Detailed imagery and analysis of this tornado are available from the National Weather Service in Milwaukee and the CIMSS Satellite Blog.


Figure 1. Storm reports for Tuesday compiled by the Storm Prediction Center.

In north central Indiana, heavy rains of up to eight inches triggered floods along the Wabash and Tippicanoe rivers that killed three people and forced the evacuation of hundreds. No further rain or severe weather is expected in the Midwest today. A new storm system on Thursday may bring the risk of severe weather to Alabama and surrounding states on Thursday.


Figure 2. Heavy rains of up to eight inches hit portions of Indiana and Illinois this week. Image credit: NOAA.

Jeff Masters

Missouri tornandos (bikesnapper)
Our news commented that for Springfield there were 63 tornado warnings over 15 hours of which at least 10 passed over the city. It was a very long scary night that these storms kept coming and coming and coming
Missouri tornandos
More Flood in My Backyard! (AndysWench)
Whole addition gone! Only Two hours for a flash flood!
More Flood in My Backyard!
my site (freybear)
my site check it out www.tornadolinks.com All your tornado and weather links, all on one website!
my site

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269. Drakoen
10:02 PM GMT on January 10, 2008
267. StormW 10:14 PM GMT on January 10, 2008
Hey Drak!


Hows it going?
Member Since: October 28, 2006 Posts: 57 Comments: 30489
268. Drakoen
10:13 PM GMT on January 10, 2008
264. Weather456 10:03 PM GMT on January 10, 2008
look at the monster charging towards the invest


yep. That monster will be responsible for taking it out to sea and/or dissapating the system. Thats what i was explaining yesterday.
Member Since: October 28, 2006 Posts: 57 Comments: 30489
266. Drakoen
10:13 PM GMT on January 10, 2008
Hey StormW.
Member Since: October 28, 2006 Posts: 57 Comments: 30489
264. Weather456
5:52 PM AST on January 10, 2008
look at the monster charging towards the invest



Yellow...surface
red - 300 hpa

Member Since: July 24, 2005 Posts: 407 Comments: 19076
263. CybrTeddy
10:02 PM GMT on January 10, 2008
That same cold front is heading into Florida on Sat-Sun, I heard on Bay news 9 that a 50% chance of rain is coming. Also do i hear that That disturbance has a sfc low, Wow, its odd to think that I (Storm talked about it a tad on his wonderful blog, thanks to him) first mentioned it on jeffs blog.
Member Since: July 8, 2005 Posts: 259 Comments: 24016
262. Drakoen
9:37 PM GMT on January 10, 2008
Yea I agree Adrian and the is clear on the 850mb vorticity and satellite imagery. I will say however that it has improved somewhat over the past few days with now a closed surface low and a well established upper level outflow from the divergence aloft. Also that 3/4 arcing band has developed well today.

Member Since: October 28, 2006 Posts: 57 Comments: 30489
261. hurricane23
4:31 PM EST on January 10, 2008
Vorticity still appears elongated and still looks sheared.Models still suggest development will take shape as early as tommrorow.The window for some development will remain open till around the 12 of januaury.
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260. Greyelf
3:31 PM CST on January 10, 2008
I started checking after NEwxguy's post of a tornado in Vancouver, WA. They confirmed it. The weather guy at KGW8 said damage looked like an EF0. There is a picture taken from a traffic cam, but it looks pretty small. Since those guys aren't used to tornadoes, I'm sure it's pretty scary for them. Here's a link to the picture. Link
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259. Weather456
5:26 PM AST on January 10, 2008
Drakoen,

cool
Member Since: July 24, 2005 Posts: 407 Comments: 19076
258. hurricane23
4:27 PM EST on January 10, 2008
WFUS54 KJAN 102058
TORJAN
MSC031-065-067-102145-
/O.NEW.KJAN.TO.W.0035.080110T2058Z-080110T2145Z/

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
TORNADO WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
258 PM CST THU JAN 10 2008

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN JACKSON HAS ISSUED A

* TORNADO WARNING FOR...
SOUTHEASTERN JEFFERSON DAVIS COUNTY IN SOUTH CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI...
SOUTHERN COVINGTON COUNTY IN SOUTHEAST MISSISSIPPI...
WESTERN JONES COUNTY IN SOUTHEAST MISSISSIPPI...
THIS INCLUDES THE CITIES OF...LAUREL...ELLISVILLE...

* UNTIL 345 PM CST

* AT 258 PM CST...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE METEOROLOGISTS DETECTED A
TORNADO 16 MILES WEST OF SANFORD...OR ABOUT 14 MILES SOUTHWEST OF
COLLINS...MOVING EAST AT 40 MPH.

* THE TORNADO WILL BE NEAR...
SANFORD BY 315 PM CST...
6 MILES NORTH OF MOSELLE BY 330 PM CST...
ELLISVILLE BY 340 PM CST...
TUCKERS CROSSING AND LAUREL BY 345 PM CST...

IN ADDITION TO THE TORNADO...THIS STORM IS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING GOLF
BALL SIZE HAIL AND DESTRUCTIVE STRAIGHT LINE WINDS.

THE SAFEST PLACE TO BE DURING A TORNADO IS IN A BASEMENT. GET UNDER A
WORKBENCH OR OTHER PIECE OF STURDY FURNITURE. IF NO BASEMENT IS
AVAILABLE...SEEK SHELTER ON THE LOWEST FLOOR OF THE BUILDING IN AN
INTERIOR HALLWAY OR ROOM SUCH AS A CLOSET. USE BLANKETS OR PILLOWS TO
COVER YOUR BODY AND ALWAYS STAY AWAY FROM WINDOWS.

IF IN MOBILE HOMES OR VEHICLES...EVACUATE THEM AND GET INSIDE A
SUBSTANTIAL SHELTER. IF NO SHELTER IS AVAILABLE...LIE FLAT IN THE
NEAREST DITCH OR OTHER LOW SPOT AND COVER YOUR HEAD WITH YOUR HANDS.

LAT...LON 3154 8981 3177 8909 3150 8909 3143 8964
TIME...MOT...LOC 2058Z 250DEG 35KT 3148 8966

$$

BYB


Tornado on the ground!





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257. Drakoen
9:25 PM GMT on January 10, 2008
256. Weather456 9:22 PM GMT on January 10, 2008
249. Drakoen 4:53 PM AST on January 10, 2008
As you guys know we are in the off-season of tropical activity. However, I want to get a blog going on a topic for the next 4 months. I was wondering what you guys would be interested in seeing or hearing in a blog. It must be weather related.

tropics around the world


Thats interesting. I will keep that in mind.
Member Since: October 28, 2006 Posts: 57 Comments: 30489
256. Weather456
5:20 PM AST on January 10, 2008
249. Drakoen 4:53 PM AST on January 10, 2008
As you guys know we are in the off-season of tropical activity. However, I want to get a blog going on a topic for the next 4 months. I was wondering what you guys would be interested in seeing or hearing in a blog. It must be weather related.


tropics around the world
Member Since: July 24, 2005 Posts: 407 Comments: 19076
255. Weather456
5:15 PM AST on January 10, 2008
.
Member Since: July 24, 2005 Posts: 407 Comments: 19076
254. IKE
3:14 PM CST on January 10, 2008
Memo to WU...your blogs are in need of being straightened out.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
253. NEwxguy
9:17 PM GMT on January 10, 2008
whats going on with the posting in the blog?
Member Since: September 6, 2007 Posts: 878 Comments: 15734
252. Starwoman
10:07 PM CET on January 10, 2008
huh ????
between now and half an hour ago at least 100 posts just disappeart.....
funny,
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250. ncleclerc
8:56 PM GMT on January 10, 2008
Drakoen:

I would!
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249. Drakoen
8:51 PM GMT on January 10, 2008
As you guys know we are in the off-season of tropical activity. However, I want to get a blog going on a topic for the next 4 months. I was wondering what you guys would be interested in seeing or hearing in a blog. It must be weather related.
Member Since: October 28, 2006 Posts: 57 Comments: 30489
248. atmoaggie
8:47 PM GMT on January 10, 2008
WTF? I have to close IE to open Photoshop? That sux. See y'all later then.
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246. atmoaggie
8:45 PM GMT on January 10, 2008
Yeah, crazy (panting breathlessly).

* TORNADO WARNING FOR...
EASTERN LARUE COUNTY IN NORTH CENTRAL KENTUCKY...
NORTHERN GREEN COUNTY IN SOUTH CENTRAL KENTUCKY...
MARION COUNTY IN SOUTH CENTRAL KENTUCKY...
NORTHWESTERN TAYLOR COUNTY IN SOUTH CENTRAL KENTUCKY...

* UNTIL 415 PM EST/315 PM CST/...
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
245. atmoaggie
8:39 PM GMT on January 10, 2008
* TORNADO WARNING FOR...
CLARKE COUNTY IN EAST CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI...
THIS INCLUDES THE CITY OF QUITMAN...

* UNTIL 330 PM CST
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
244. HadesGodWyvern (Mod)
8:38 PM GMT on January 10, 2008
W456 where you getting such high pressure while the RSMC is reporting 980 hPa?
Member Since: May 24, 2006 Posts: 50 Comments: 45295
243. NEwxguy
8:30 PM GMT on January 10, 2008
Ok,now this is getting crazy,this is in the northwest

...A Tornado Warning remains in effect until 100 PM PST for
southwestern Skamania and southern Clark counties...

At 1231 PM PST...the public reported a tornado. This tornado
touched down at 78th street and Fruit Valley Road in
Vancouver....then moved northeast to I-5 and 108th street.

There have been reports of power lines down in the vicinity of where
the tornado touched.
Member Since: September 6, 2007 Posts: 878 Comments: 15734
242. atmoaggie
8:41 PM GMT on January 10, 2008
* TORNADO WARNING FOR...
SOUTH CENTRAL MARION COUNTY IN NORTHWEST ALABAMA...
THIS INCLUDES THE CITY OF WINFIELD...
NORTHERN FAYETTE COUNTY IN WEST CENTRAL ALABAMA...
EAST CENTRAL LAMAR COUNTY IN WEST CENTRAL ALABAMA...

* UNTIL 315 PM CST
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
241. atmoaggie
8:40 PM GMT on January 10, 2008
1.
* TORNADO WARNING FOR...
SOUTHEASTERN SMITH COUNTY IN CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI...
SOUTHERN JASPER COUNTY IN EAST CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI...
THIS INCLUDES THE CITY OF STRINGER...
NORTHEASTERN COVINGTON COUNTY IN SOUTHEAST MISSISSIPPI...
NORTHWESTERN JONES COUNTY IN SOUTHEAST MISSISSIPPI...

* UNTIL 330 PM CST

2.
* TORNADO WARNING FOR...
EASTERN JONES COUNTY IN SOUTHEAST MISSISSIPPI...
THIS INCLUDES THE CITY OF ELLISVILLE...

* UNTIL 315 PM CST
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
240. atmoaggie
8:36 PM GMT on January 10, 2008
* TORNADO WARNING FOR...
LEWIS COUNTY IN TENNESSEE...

* UNTIL 300 PM CST
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
239. Weather456
4:33 PM AST on January 10, 2008
Tropical Cyclone Elisa (07F)/Tropical Cyclone 11P Update 6 (Revised)

Issued 2000 UTC JAN 10 2008 by W456

Tropical Cyclone Elisa (07F) by Nadi and 11P by the JTWC is centered near 23.2S-174.1 moving towards the south and east. Estimated surface winds are near 45 knots. Estimated surface pressure is near 989 mb. Wind shear in the vertical is 20 knots and SSTs are 26-28C.

The tropical cyclone was position using Morphed Integrated Microwave Imagery at CIMSS (MIMIC). The estimated surface winds and pressure will based on Dvorak classifications and VMAX. Infrared satellite imagery showed the cyclone is beginning to accelerate under the upper convergence of an approaching frontal boundary. Visible satellite presentation showed the familiar cirrus outflow of a tropical cyclone beginning extratropical transition. Furthermore, the convection is opening up and the radius of maximum winds (RMW) has increase from 28 nmi to 61 nmi. Expect the cyclone to continue to move quickly towards the southeast with little additional strengthening.

Note:
A microwave overpass around 1500 UTC this morning by TMI showed a small eye-like feature might have form on 07F indicating it may have reach intensity equivalent to hurricane status in the North Atlantic Ocean.

by W456

JTWC
1800 UTC - 11PELISA.50kts-985mb-236S-1743W
Member Since: July 24, 2005 Posts: 407 Comments: 19076
238. atmoaggie
8:20 PM GMT on January 10, 2008
* TORNADO WARNING FOR...
NOXUBEE COUNTY IN EAST CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI...

* UNTIL 315 PM CST

* TORNADO WARNING FOR...
NORTHWESTERN GREENE COUNTY IN SOUTHEAST MISSISSIPPI...
NORTHERN PERRY COUNTY IN SOUTHEAST MISSISSIPPI...
SOUTHWESTERN WAYNE COUNTY IN SOUTHEAST MISSISSIPPI...

* UNTIL 330 PM CST
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
237. atmoaggie
8:33 PM GMT on January 10, 2008
1.
* TORNADO WARNING FOR...
LARUE COUNTY IN NORTH CENTRAL KENTUCKY...
SOUTHWESTERN NELSON COUNTY IN NORTH CENTRAL KENTUCKY...

* UNTIL 400 PM EST...

2.
* TORNADO WARNING FOR...
WILLIAMSON COUNTY IN TENNESSEE...
THIS INCLUDES THE CITY OF FRANKLIN...

* UNTIL 300 PM CST

3.
* TORNADO WARNING FOR...
SOUTHERN CLARK COUNTY IN SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON...
SOUTHWESTERN SKAMANIA COUNTY IN SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON...

* UNTIL 100 PM PST.

* AT 1220 PM PST...THE PUBLIC REPORTED A TORNADO NEAR HAZEL DELL...OR
ABOUT NEAR VANCOUVER DOWNTOWN...MOVING EAST AT 30 MPH.

Member Since: Posts: Comments:
236. atmoaggie
8:26 PM GMT on January 10, 2008
Did you know that QuickSCAT is unrealiable once heavy rain is present or the wind speed actually exceeds hurricane force?

One proposed replacement for QuickSCAT, already way beyond design life, is HIRAD. HIRAD is basically a souped-up version of SFMR that has a greatly expanded field-of-view over that of SFMR. HIRAD can infer wind speeds in the eyewall of a major TC and operate through heavy rainfall. This is useful as we have no representation in the H*Wind analysis of downbursts, as they occur during the heaviest of rains found in a TC.

Just a tidbit to chew on. This should be thoroughly presented at the AMS annual meeting in NOLA in 2 weeks. I will take notes.
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235. HadesGodWyvern (Mod)
8:28 PM GMT on January 10, 2008
RSMC Nadi - Marine Bulletin (2000z 10Jan)
=========================================

Tropical Depression Eight-F [998 hPa] located near 13.0S 171.0E reported as slow moving. Sustained winds near the center is 20-25 knots with gusts up to 30 knots within 50 miles from the center.
Member Since: May 24, 2006 Posts: 50 Comments: 45295
234. Drakoen
8:31 PM GMT on January 10, 2008
Well defined but exposed area of low pressure.
Member Since: October 28, 2006 Posts: 57 Comments: 30489
233. atmoaggie
8:25 PM GMT on January 10, 2008
* TORNADO WARNING FOR...
SOUTHERN JEFFERSON DAVIS COUNTY IN SOUTH CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI...
SOUTHEASTERN LAWRENCE COUNTY IN SOUTH CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI...
NORTHERN MARION COUNTY IN SOUTH CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI...

* UNTIL 300 PM CST
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
232. Weather456
4:02 PM AST on January 10, 2008
Tropical Depression 08F Update 1

Issued 2000 UTC JAN 10 2008 by W456

New tropical depression formed this morning (AST/EST) near 12.5S-173E, remaining stationary. Estimated surface winds are 20 knots. Estimated surface pressure is 1003 mb. Wind shear is 5-10 knots and SSTs are 90F.

The center of the curve bands seen on infrared imagery was use to place the center. Synoptic reports, which is much more than with 07F was used to estimate the winds and pressure. QuikSCAT will be available tonight to get a true description of the winds. Based on the impressive satellite presentation and environmental conditions 08F has an excellent chance of developing and the models agree as they have been predicting development for the past week.

by W456

JTWC
1800 UTC 99PINVEST.15kts-1010mb-115S-1720E


Member Since: July 24, 2005 Posts: 407 Comments: 19076
231. atmoaggie
8:10 PM GMT on January 10, 2008
* TORNADO WARNING FOR...
NORTHWESTERN GREEN COUNTY IN SOUTH CENTRAL KENTUCKY...
SOUTHEASTERN HART COUNTY IN SOUTH CENTRAL KENTUCKY...

* UNTIL 300 PM CST...
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
230. HadesGodWyvern (Mod)
8:19 PM GMT on January 10, 2008
THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A TORNADO WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF PARTS OF CENTRAL AND EASTERN KENTUCKY EFFECTIVE THIS THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING FROM 220 PM UNTIL 800 PM CST.

TORNADOES...HAIL TO 1.5 INCHES IN DIAMETER...THUNDERSTORM WIND GUSTS TO 80 MPH...AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING ARE POSSIBLE IN THESE AREAS.

THE TORNADO WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 60 STATUTE MILES EAST AND WEST OF A LINE FROM 95 MILES WEST SOUTHWEST OF LONDON KENTUCKY TO 65 MILES NORTH OF LONDON KENTUCKY. FOR A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE ASSOCIATED WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU8).

REMEMBER...A TORNADO WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR TORNADOES AND SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS.

OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 16...WW 17...

DISCUSSION...WITH WARM FRONT MOVING NWD INTO CENTRAL/ERN KY...CONDITIONS ARE NOW FAVORABLE FOR TORNADIC SUPERCELLS GIVEN THE VERY STRONG SHEAR PROFILES IN PLACE. AVIATION...TORNADOES AND A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL SURFACE AND ALOFT TO 1.5 INCHES. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE WIND GUSTS TO 70 KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO 500. MEAN STORM MOTION VECTOR 23050.
Member Since: May 24, 2006 Posts: 50 Comments: 45295
229. atmoaggie
8:20 PM GMT on January 10, 2008
* TORNADO WARNING FOR...
WESTERN LAUDERDALE COUNTY IN NORTHWEST ALABAMA...

* UNTIL 245 PM CST
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
228. atmoaggie
8:19 PM GMT on January 10, 2008
* TORNADO WARNING FOR...
MAURY COUNTY IN TENNESSEE...
THIS INCLUDES THE CITY OF COLUMBIA...

* UNTIL 245 PM CST

This is a bit wild. A new t-warning every minute. Must be some terrific shear out there.
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227. atmoaggie
8:17 PM GMT on January 10, 2008
* TORNADO WARNING FOR...
LAMAR COUNTY IN WEST CENTRAL ALABAMA...
THIS INCLUDES THE CITIES OF...VERNON...MILLPORT...

* UNTIL 300 PM CST
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
226. hurricane23
3:14 PM EST on January 10, 2008
NHC Discussion...

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A DEEP LAYER LOW PRES AREA IN THE CENTRAL ATLC CONTINUES TO
MEANDER OR DRIFT WWD. VISIBLE IMAGES AND SHIP OBSERVATIONS
SUGGEST A NEWLY FORMED SFC LOW...ANALYZED 1012 MB NEAR 26N57W.
IR IMAGERY AND LIGHTNING DATA INDICATE SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
TSTMS TO THE E OF THE SFC LOW FROM 22N-27N BETWEEN 51W-55W.
SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE ELSEWHERE N OF 26N BETWEEN 48W-58W. A WEAK
SFC TROUGH IS SITUATED TO THE S OF THE AFOREMENTIONED LOW ALONG
58W FROM 13N-18N. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE MAINLY WITHIN 240 NM E
OF THE AXIS SHEARED BY MID AND UPPER WLYS.

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225. atmoaggie
8:01 PM GMT on January 10, 2008
And another...non-stop:

* TORNADO WARNING FOR...
NORTHEASTERN LOWNDES COUNTY IN NORTHEAST MISSISSIPPI...

* UNTIL 245 PM CST
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224. atmoaggie
8:13 PM GMT on January 10, 2008
Make that 15.

* TORNADO WARNING FOR...
CENTRAL IBERIA PARISH IN SOUTH CENTRAL LOUISIANA...
SOUTHEASTERN VERMILION PARISH IN SOUTHWEST LOUISIANA...
THIS INCLUDES THE CITIES OF...PECAN ISLAND...INTRACOASTAL CITY...

* UNTIL 245 PM CST

* TORNADO WARNING FOR...
NORTHWESTERN CLARKE COUNTY IN SOUTHWEST ALABAMA...

* UNTIL 230 PM CST
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223. atmoaggie
8:04 PM GMT on January 10, 2008
Wow, busy day. At last count, 13 active, current tornado warnings. Stay alert from Lake Charles to Cincinnati!
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222. Weather456
3:44 PM AST on January 10, 2008
.
Member Since: July 24, 2005 Posts: 407 Comments: 19076
221. hurricane23
2:45 PM EST on January 10, 2008
2nd tropical system in january??That would be something.
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220. Weather456
3:42 PM AST on January 10, 2008
yeah h23 i saw it....i too agree its a 50/50 chance.
Member Since: July 24, 2005 Posts: 407 Comments: 19076

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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.