Rare January tornadoes rip the Midwest

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 4:39 PM GMT on January 08, 2008

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Wild spring-like severe weather swept through the Midwestern U.S. last night, unleashing tornadoes, baseball-sized hail, flooding, and extreme wind gusts. Up to 37 tornadoes ripped through Missouri, Oklahoma, Illinois, Arkansas, and Wisconsin. Two people were killed and three critically injured in southern Missouri near the town of Marshfield, northeast of Springfield, when a tornado smashed through a mobile home park. In Wheatland, Wisconsin, in Kenosha County, just north of the Illinois border, a strong or possibly violent tornado damaged or destroyed 55 buildings and injured 13 people. Twelve homes were demolished down to their foundations. The Wheatland tornado was only the second January tornado on record in Wisconsin. The only other one was a long-track F3 in Green and Rock counties on 24 January 1967. A radar animation of the Wheatland tornado is at right, and more detailed imagery and analysis of this tornado are available from the CIMSS Satellite Blog.

Record warm temperatures helped fuel yesterday's severe weather outbreak. The 63° F reading in Milwaukee was the warmest temperature ever recorded there in the month of January. Many locations in Michigan, Wisconsin, and Illinois posted record highs within three degrees of their warmest-ever January readings. The record warmth will continue to fuel more severe thunderstorms today from northern Louisiana to Ohio, and the Storm Prediction Center has already issued a Tornado Watch for portions of Arkansas, Missouri, Tennessee, Mississippi, and Kentucky. Severe thunderstorms have already been reported in Arkansas this morning.

Last night's severe thunderstorm I observed from my house was the first I've ever experienced in my 40 years living in Michigan. One thunderstorm, 100 miles north of where I live, covered the ground up to two inches deep with hail (Midland, Michigan). Michigan has had three consecutive Januarys with record warmth and spring-like thunderstorms. Northern Illinois recorded its first January tornado since 1950 last night, and Wisconsin its second January tornado on record. Is it global warming? Well, one can't blame a single weather event on climate change. Also, it was eight below zero here just five days ago, so there has been some very normal winter weather this year. Furthermore, the 37 tornadoes reported yesterday don't come close to the 102 twisters recorded during the huge January 17-22, 1999 tornado outbreak across Arkansas and Tennessee. But the string of unusual January warmth in three straight years, accompanied by severe thunderstorms far to the north, is broadly consistent with what one would expect to see in a warming climate. Expect to see a lot more spring-like weather in January in coming years.

Jeff Masters

Kenosha, WI Tornado (luvken88)
This tornado was caught at approx. 4:30 pm 1/7/08. North-east side of Kenosha County, in Kenosha, Wisconsin.
Kenosha, WI Tornado
()

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157. BajaALemt
1:10 AM GMT on January 09, 2008
Evenin 456 (nice to see you, as well)
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
156. Bonedog
8:12 PM EST on January 08, 2008
nice to see you as well.
Member Since: July 14, 2005 Posts: 14 Comments: 7418
155. Weather456
9:02 PM AST on January 08, 2008
I know this is off topic...bur forgive please i just wanted to say u guys in the US have the most exiting politics of any country in the world.
Member Since: July 24, 2005 Posts: 407 Comments: 19076
154. BajaALemt
1:10 AM GMT on January 09, 2008
Well, nice to see you. Ive been trackin the weather as well...figured I'd pop in
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153. Bonedog
8:08 PM EST on January 08, 2008
LOl Baja yea been watchin. Not a good night not at all :(
Member Since: July 14, 2005 Posts: 14 Comments: 7418
152. BajaALemt
1:07 AM GMT on January 09, 2008
Evenin folks ...Ha! Capt "hook"...I THOUGHT you might be watchin
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
151. Bonedog
8:04 PM EST on January 08, 2008
heres something noteworthy. first time I have seen a message like this from the NWS


IDC013-091200-

BULLETIN - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
CIVIL EMERGENCY MESSAGE
BLAINE COUNTY EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT OPERATIONS
RELAYED BY NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE POCATELLO ID
507 PM MST TUE JAN 8 2008

THE FOLLOWING MESSAGE IS TRANSMITTED AT THE REQUEST OF BLAINE
COUNTY EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT.

THE SAWTOOTH NATIONAL FOREST AVALANCHE CENTER HAS ISSUED AN AVALANCHE
WARNING FOR BLAINE COUNTY. ADDITIONAL SNOWFALL TONIGHT COMBINED WITH
WIND WILL INCREASE THE AVALANCHE DANGER TO HIGH...TO POSSIBLY
EXTREME FOR ANY STEEP SLOPES IN THE WOOD RIVER VALLEY.

ALL HIGH RISK AREAS WILL BE CLOSED TO PEDESTRIAN AND NON-RESIDENT TRAFFIC.

IF YOU LIVE IN A HIGH RISK AREA, UNLESS YOU KNOW THAT YOU LIVE IN
AN AVALANCHE-ENGINEERED HOME...WE ARE RECOMMENDING YOU DO NOT SPEND
TONIGHT IN YOUR HOME.
ANY PERSONS INVOLVED IN SNOW REMOVAL IN THE EARLY MORNING HOURS
ADJACENT TO STEEP SLOPES ARE ADVISED TO TAKE SPECIAL PRECAUTIONS.
Member Since: July 14, 2005 Posts: 14 Comments: 7418
150. Bonedog
7:55 PM EST on January 08, 2008
wow thats a long lived system :(

544cst to 643cst so far!!
Member Since: July 14, 2005 Posts: 14 Comments: 7418
149. Bonedog
7:54 PM EST on January 08, 2008
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Tornado Warning

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

TORNADO WARNING
MSC061-129-090130-
/O.NEW.KJAN.TO.W.0004.080109T0043Z-080109T0130Z/

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
TORNADO WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
643 PM CST TUE JAN 8 2008

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN JACKSON HAS ISSUED A

* TORNADO WARNING FOR...
CENTRAL SMITH COUNTY IN CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI...
NORTHWESTERN JASPER COUNTY IN EAST CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI...

* UNTIL 730 PM CST

* AT 643 PM CST...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE METEOROLOGISTS DETECTED A
TORNADO NEAR RALEIGH...MOVING EAST AT 30 MPH.

* THE TORNADO WILL BE NEAR...
6 MILES SOUTH OF PINEVILLE BY 655 PM CST...
6 MILES NORTH OF BAY SPRINGS BY 705 PM CST...
TURNERVILLE BY 715 PM CST...

IN ADDITION TO THE TORNADO...THIS STORM IS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING
QUARTER SIZE HAIL AND DESTRUCTIVE STRAIGHT LINE WINDS.

THE SAFEST PLACE TO BE DURING A TORNADO IS IN A BASEMENT. GET UNDER A
WORKBENCH OR OTHER PIECE OF STURDY FURNITURE. IF NO BASEMENT IS
AVAILABLE...SEEK SHELTER ON THE LOWEST FLOOR OF THE BUILDING IN AN
INTERIOR HALLWAY OR ROOM SUCH AS A CLOSET. USE BLANKETS OR PILLOWS TO
COVER YOUR BODY AND ALWAYS STAY AWAY FROM WINDOWS.

IF IN MOBILE HOMES OR VEHICLES...EVACUATE THEM AND GET INSIDE A
SUBSTANTIAL SHELTER. IF NO SHELTER IS AVAILABLE...LIE FLAT IN THE
NEAREST DITCH OR OTHER LOW SPOT AND COVER YOUR HEAD WITH YOUR HANDS
Member Since: July 14, 2005 Posts: 14 Comments: 7418
148. Bonedog
7:24 PM EST on January 08, 2008


--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Tornado Warning

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
623 PM CST TUE JAN 8 2008

MSC127-129-090045-
/O.CON.KJAN.TO.W.0003.000000T0000Z-080109T0045Z/
SMITH MS-SIMPSON MS-
623 PM CST TUE JAN 8 2008

...A TORNADO WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 645 PM CST FOR
NORTHEASTERN SIMPSON AND NORTHERN SMITH COUNTIES...

AT 623 PM CST...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE METEOROLOGISTS WERE TRACKING
A TORNADO. THIS TORNADO WAS LOCATED NEAR WHITE OAK...OR ABOUT 11
MILES NORTHEAST OF MENDENHALL...MOVING EAST AT 25 MPH.

THE TORNADO WILL BE NEAR...
RALEIGH AND BURNS BY 640 PM CST...
6 MILES SOUTHWEST OF PINEVILLE AND 7 MILES NORTHWEST OF SYLVARENA
BY 645 PM CST...

THIS STORM HAS A HISTORY OF PRODUCING SIGNIFICANT WIND DAMAGE AND
LIKELY TORNADOES! MOVE TO A PLACE OF SAFETY NOW!

THE SAFEST PLACE TO BE DURING A TORNADO IS IN A BASEMENT. GET UNDER A
WORKBENCH OR OTHER PIECE OF STURDY FURNITURE. IF NO BASEMENT IS
AVAILABLE...SEEK SHELTER ON THE LOWEST FLOOR OF THE BUILDING IN AN
INTERIOR HALLWAY OR ROOM SUCH AS A CLOSET. USE BLANKETS OR PILLOWS TO
COVER YOUR BODY AND ALWAYS STAY AWAY FROM WINDOWS.

IF IN MOBILE HOMES OR VEHICLES...EVACUATE THEM AND GET INSIDE A
SUBSTANTIAL SHELTER. IF NO SHELTER IS AVAILABLE...LIE FLAT IN THE
NEAREST DITCH OR OTHER LOW SPOT AND COVER YOUR HEAD WITH YOUR HANDS
Member Since: July 14, 2005 Posts: 14 Comments: 7418
147. Bonedog
7:12 PM EST on January 08, 2008
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Tornado Warning

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

TORNADO WARNING
MSC121-127-129-090045-
/O.NEW.KJAN.TO.W.0003.080109T0009Z-080109T0045Z/

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
TORNADO WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
609 PM CST TUE JAN 8 2008

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN JACKSON HAS ISSUED A

* TORNADO WARNING FOR...
SOUTHEASTERN RANKIN COUNTY IN CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI...
NORTHEASTERN SIMPSON COUNTY IN CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI...
THIS INCLUDES THE CITY OF MENDENHALL...
NORTHERN SMITH COUNTY IN CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI...

* UNTIL 645 PM CST

* AT 609 PM CST...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE METEOROLOGISTS DETECTED A
TORNADO NEAR MARTINVILLE...OR ABOUT NEAR MENDENHALL...MOVING EAST
AT 40 MPH.

* THE TORNADO WILL BE NEAR...
WHITE OAK BY 615 PM CST...
RALEIGH BY 625 PM CST...
BURNS BY 630 PM CST...
PINEVILLE BY 640 PM CST...

IN ADDITION TO THE TORNADO...THIS STORM IS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING QUARTER
SIZE HAIL AND DESTRUCTIVE STRAIGHT LINE WINDS.

THE SAFEST PLACE TO BE DURING A TORNADO IS IN A BASEMENT. GET UNDER A
WORKBENCH OR OTHER PIECE OF STURDY FURNITURE. IF NO BASEMENT IS
AVAILABLE...SEEK SHELTER ON THE LOWEST FLOOR OF THE BUILDING IN AN
INTERIOR HALLWAY OR ROOM SUCH AS A CLOSET. USE BLANKETS OR PILLOWS TO
COVER YOUR BODY AND ALWAYS STAY AWAY FROM WINDOWS.

IF IN MOBILE HOMES OR VEHICLES...EVACUATE THEM AND GET INSIDE A
SUBSTANTIAL SHELTER. IF NO SHELTER IS AVAILABLE...LIE FLAT IN THE
NEAREST DITCH OR OTHER LOW SPOT AND COVER YOUR HEAD WITH YOUR HANDS.
Member Since: July 14, 2005 Posts: 14 Comments: 7418
146. Weather456
7:53 PM AST on January 08, 2008
Super Pacific Low

Put this baby into loop
Aewsome QSCAT



Member Since: July 24, 2005 Posts: 407 Comments: 19076
145. Dropsonde
7:00 PM EST on January 08, 2008
The Wheatland, WI tornado was an upper-end EF3:

Link

THE TORNADO THAT WENT THROUGH THE WHEATLAND/NEW MUNSTER AREA IN WESTERN KENOSHA COUNTY HAS BEEN GIVEN A PRELIMINARY RATING OF EF-3 ...WITH ESTIMATED TOP WINDS BETWEEN 150-160 MPH...BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STORM SURVEY TEAM.

THIS PLACES THE TORNADIC WINDS AT THE HIGHER PORTION OF THE EF-3 SCALE...WHICH RANGES FROM 136 MPH TO 165 MPH.


I'm wondering how bad it was in the southern end of the outbreak.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
144. Bonedog
7:00 PM EST on January 08, 2008
Local weather forecast by "City, St" or zip code

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Tornado Warning

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
556 PM CST TUE JAN 8 2008

MSC121-127-090015-
/O.CON.KJAN.TO.W.0002.000000T0000Z-080109T0015Z/
RANKIN MS-SIMPSON MS-
556 PM CST TUE JAN 8 2008

...A TORNADO WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 615 PM CST FOR NORTHERN
SIMPSON AND SOUTHEASTERN RANKIN COUNTIES...

AT 556 PM CST...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE METEOROLOGISTS WERE TRACKING
A TORNADO. THIS TORNADO WAS LOCATED NEAR BRAXTON...OR ABOUT 6 MILES
NORTHWEST OF MENDENHALL...MOVING EAST AT 40 MPH.

THE TORNADO WILL BE NEAR...
PUCKETT...JOHNS AND 7 MILES NORTH OF MARTINVILLE BY 605 PM CST...

IN ADDITION TO THE TORNADO...THIS STORM IS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING QUARTER
SIZE HAIL AND DESTRUCTIVE STRAIGHT LINE WINDS.

THE SAFEST PLACE TO BE DURING A TORNADO IS IN A BASEMENT. GET UNDER A
WORKBENCH OR OTHER PIECE OF STURDY FURNITURE. IF NO BASEMENT IS
AVAILABLE...SEEK SHELTER ON THE LOWEST FLOOR OF THE BUILDING IN AN
INTERIOR HALLWAY OR ROOM SUCH AS A CLOSET. USE BLANKETS OR PILLOWS TO
COVER YOUR BODY AND ALWAYS STAY AWAY FROM WINDOWS.

IF IN MOBILE HOMES OR VEHICLES...EVACUATE THEM AND GET INSIDE A
SUBSTANTIAL SHELTER. IF NO SHELTER IS AVAILABLE...LIE FLAT IN THE
NEAREST DITCH OR OTHER LOW SPOT AND COVER YOUR HEAD WITH YOUR HANDS.
Member Since: July 14, 2005 Posts: 14 Comments: 7418
143. NorthxCakalaky
11:52 PM GMT on January 08, 2008
From 15degree mornings to 70degree highs.


Anyone think thunderstorms will hit north-western N.C? Or is there too much dry air?
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
142. Weather456
7:49 PM AST on January 08, 2008
Tropical Depression 07F Update 2

Issued 2100 UTC JAN 08 2008 by W456
Update 2300 UTC JAN 08 2008 by W456

Tropical Depression 07F located near 17.4S-175.5W, moving towards the south. Position accurately placed using high-resolution visible imagery, which showed a well-define expose LLCC. The cyclone continues to be affected by northerly shear induced by 250-hpa low. SSTs are 27-29C. Estimated surface winds are 30 knots based on QuikSCAT, ASCAT and WindSAT. Estimated minimum pressure is 1004 hpa based on synoptic reports. Expect the cyclone to continue towards the south east around the subtropical ridge while slowly intensifying.

by W456

JTWC Stats
1800 UTC 25kts-1004mb-193S-1756W


Member Since: July 24, 2005 Posts: 407 Comments: 19076
141. Bonedog
6:44 PM EST on January 08, 2008


--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Tornado Warning

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
544 PM CST TUE JAN 8 2008

MSC121-127-090015-
/O.CON.KJAN.TO.W.0002.000000T0000Z-080109T0015Z/
RANKIN MS-SIMPSON MS-
544 PM CST TUE JAN 8 2008

...A TORNADO WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 615 PM CST FOR NORTHERN
SIMPSON AND SOUTHEASTERN RANKIN COUNTIES...

AT 544 PM CST...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE METEOROLOGISTS WERE TRACKING
A TORNADO. THIS TORNADO WAS LOCATED NEAR HARRISVILLE...OR ABOUT 8
MILES SOUTH OF STAR...MOVING EAST AT 40 MPH.

THE TORNADO WILL BE NEAR...
BRAXTON AND PINEY WOODS BY 550 PM CST...
D`LO AND MENDENHALL BY 555 PM CST...
CATO BY 600 PM CST...
PUCKETT...6 MILES SOUTH OF JOHNS AND 6 MILES NORTH OF MARTINVILLE
BY 605 PM CST...
PUCKETT BY 610 PM CST...

IN ADDITION TO THE TORNADO...THIS STORM IS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING QUARTER!
SIZE HAIL AND DESTRUCTIVE STRAIGHT LINE WINDS.

THE SAFEST PLACE TO BE DURING A TORNADO IS IN A BASEMENT. GET UNDER A
WORKBENCH OR OTHER PIECE OF STURDY FURNITURE. IF NO BASEMENT IS
AVAILABLE...SEEK SHELTER ON THE LOWEST FLOOR OF THE BUILDING IN AN
INTERIOR HALLWAY OR ROOM SUCH AS A CLOSET. USE BLANKETS OR PILLOWS TO
COVER YOUR BODY AND ALWAYS STAY AWAY FROM WINDOWS.

IF IN MOBILE HOMES OR VEHICLES...EVACUATE THEM AND GET INSIDE A
SUBSTANTIAL SHELTER. IF NO SHELTER IS AVAILABLE...LIE FLAT IN THE
NEAREST DITCH OR OTHER LOW SPOT AND COVER YOUR HEAD WITH YOUR HANDS.
Member Since: July 14, 2005 Posts: 14 Comments: 7418
140. Weather456
7:37 PM AST on January 08, 2008
139. StormW 7:37 PM AST on January 08, 2008

Boo-Yahh!!!...Thanks so much.
Member Since: July 24, 2005 Posts: 407 Comments: 19076
138. Weather456
7:33 PM AST on January 08, 2008
SW, isnt there any satellite signiture i should be looking for?....also well developed tropical cyclones have vort at 500 mb also.
Member Since: July 24, 2005 Posts: 407 Comments: 19076
137. Bonedog
6:33 PM EST on January 08, 2008
Im keeping an eye around MLK Day. Always get hammered right around there.
Member Since: July 14, 2005 Posts: 14 Comments: 7418
135. Bonedog
6:28 PM EST on January 08, 2008
WOW I'll give the Almanaic credit. The dates of the snow are pretty much on the ball according to the models so far. Plus the discription of the cold.

Member Since: July 14, 2005 Posts: 14 Comments: 7418
134. Weather456
7:25 PM AST on January 08, 2008
Also, contour maps up around the 500 mb level could be useful.

thats the same as geopotential height fields?
Member Since: July 24, 2005 Posts: 407 Comments: 19076
133. Weather456
7:23 PM AST on January 08, 2008
Bone:

Includes predictions for all or portions of Connecticut (Canaan, North Granby, Sharon Valley, West Cornwall, Winsted), Maine (Auburn, Bangor, Lewiston, Portland, South Portland), Massachusetts (Chicopee, Haverhill, Lawrence, Lowell, Springfield), New Hampshire (Concord, Dover, Manchester, Nashua, Rochester), New Jersey (Colesville, Glenwood, McAfee, Sussex, Wantage), New York (Albany, Poughkeepsie, Schenectady, Troy, Utica), Pennsylvania (Matamoras), Vermont (Barre, Bennington, Burlington, Rutland, South Burlington).

Winter will be about a degree milder than normal, on average, with slightly above-normal precipitation. Snowfall will be above normal, especially in the interior of Maine. The coldest temperatures will occur in early and late December, mid-January, and early and mid- to late February. The snowiest periods will be in mid-December, mid- and late January, and early to mid-March.

After early April snow, April and May will be slightly warmer and wetter than normal, with the season's first heat wave in late May.

Summer will be rainier and slightly hotter than normal. The hottest periods will occur in mid- to late June and mid-July.

September will be relatively dry, with near-normal temperatures. October will be unusually mild, with record warmth in midmonth.

January 2008
Avg. Temperature: 21 (1 above avg.)
Precipitation: 4" (1" above avg.)
Jan. 1-4: Sunny, quite mild
Jan. 5-11: Snow, then sunny, cold
Jan. 12-16: Snow showers, seasonable
Jan. 17-20: Heavy snow, then sunny, very cold
Jan. 21-26: Snowstorm, then sunny, cold
Jan. 27-31: Snowstorm, then sunny, cold
Member Since: July 24, 2005 Posts: 407 Comments: 19076
132. Bonedog
6:22 PM EST on January 08, 2008
456 what does it say for the Northeast
Member Since: July 14, 2005 Posts: 14 Comments: 7418
130. Weather456
7:14 PM AST on January 08, 2008
Fl Long Range Forecast:

January 2008
Avg. Temperature: 59° (2° below avg.)
Precipitation: 2.5" (avg.)
Jan. 1-4: Showers, then sunny, cool
Jan. 5-7: T-storms, warm
Jan. 8-14: T-storms, then sunny, warm
Jan. 15-21: Showers, cool
Jan. 22-27: Sunny, warm
Jan. 28-31: Rain, cool

Source: Farmers Old Almanac
Member Since: July 24, 2005 Posts: 407 Comments: 19076
129. Bonedog
6:18 PM EST on January 08, 2008


--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Tornado Warning

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

TORNADO WARNING
KYC059-107-149-233-082345-
/O.NEW.KPAH.TO.W.0011.080108T2308Z-080108T2345Z/

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
TORNADO WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
508 PM CST TUE JAN 8 2008

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN PADUCAH KENTUCKY HAS ISSUED A

* TORNADO WARNING FOR...
DAVIESS COUNTY IN NORTHWEST KENTUCKY
NORTHEASTERN HOPKINS COUNTY IN NORTHWEST KENTUCKY
MCLEAN COUNTY IN NORTHWEST KENTUCKY
EASTERN WEBSTER COUNTY IN NORTHWEST KENTUCKY

* UNTIL 545 PM CST.

* AT 505 PM CST...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A TORNADO NEAR VANDETTA...
MOVING NORTHEAST AT 55 MPH.

* LOCATIONS IN THE WARNING INCLUDE BUT ARE NOT LIMITED TO
CALHOUN...MASONVILLE AND PHILPOT.

HEAVY RAINFALL MAY OBSCURE THIS TORNADO. TAKE COVER NOW! IF YOU WAIT
TO SEE OR HEAR IT COMING...IT MAY BE TOO LATE TO GET TO A SAFE PLACE.
Member Since: July 14, 2005 Posts: 14 Comments: 7418
128. Weather456
7:13 PM AST on January 08, 2008
yeah, SW no rush...i have till May...Thanks :)
Member Since: July 24, 2005 Posts: 407 Comments: 19076
126. Weather456
6:54 PM AST on January 08, 2008
Also SW, if it isnt too much....tell me how u find the mid level center of a moderately sheared tropical cyclone. Right now i place it within the convection that looks to has some vorticity.
Member Since: July 24, 2005 Posts: 407 Comments: 19076
125. Weather456
6:49 PM AST on January 08, 2008
StormW,

ok....when u get a chance drop me an email as to which Global model u find most accurate for forecasting development of storms. I use CMC, GFS and the NAVY NOGAPS. Thanks

And could you explain to me what is the differnece between the West African Tropical Wave Model as oppose to the West African Cyclone Model. Are they two diffrent names of but the same synoptic model. I find both to be strongest near 700-500 hpa last 2 hurricane seasons. Thanks
Member Since: July 24, 2005 Posts: 407 Comments: 19076
123. Weather456
6:31 PM AST on January 08, 2008
CENTRAL AMERICA AND THE CARIBBEAN REGION....

Upper level anticyclonic flow dominates the Caribbean west of 70W, induced by an upper ridge whose axis extends from the Northeast tip of Colombia to the Yucatan Channel. Abundant mid-upper level moisture is being advected across the region in the form of cirriform clouds with embedded widely scattered showers. The lastest observations from Gradn Cayman show clouds broken at 22000 feet. At the surface, trades are on the moderate side this evening, advecting there typical patches of shallow moisture. A surface trough extends just north of Santo Domingo and Puerto Rico with a CLLC moving near 19.5N-79.5W. Scattered showers are between 20N and 25N from 70W-55W.


by W456

Member Since: July 24, 2005 Posts: 407 Comments: 19076
122. Metallica1990
10:44 PM GMT on January 08, 2008
so far 2 confirmed EF3s yesterday
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
121. Bonedog
5:37 PM EST on January 08, 2008


--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Tornado Warning

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
438 PM CST TUE JAN 8 2008

INC051-125-173-082315-
/O.CON.KPAH.TO.W.0010.000000T0000Z-080108T2315Z/
PIKE IN-GIBSON IN-WARRICK IN-
538 PM EST TUE JAN 8 2008

...A TORNADO WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 615 PM EST/515 PM CST/
FOR NORTHERN WARRICK...EASTERN GIBSON AND PIKE COUNTIES IN SOUTHWEST
INDIANA...

AT 537 PM EST...WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR CONTINUED TO INDICATE A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A TORNADO. THIS STORM WAS
LOCATED NEAR SPURGEON...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 65 MPH.

LOCATIONS IN THE WARNING INCLUDE BUT ARE NOT LIMITED TO
COE...WINSLOW AND IVA.

HEAVY RAINFALL MAY OBSCURE THIS TORNADO. TAKE COVER NOW! IF YOU WAIT
TO SEE OR HEAR IT COMING...IT MAY BE TOO LATE TO GET TO A SAFE PLACE.

LAT...LON 3852 8708 3852 8707 3820 8708 3806 8747
3817 8748 3854 8740 3854 8734 3852 8732
3853 8728 3854 8727
TIME...MOT...LOC 2238Z 217DEG 67KT 3826 8728

$$






--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
438 PM CST TUE JAN 8 2008

KYC035-082300-
/O.CON.KPAH.TO.W.0009.000000T0000Z-080108T2300Z/
CALLOWAY KY-
438 PM CST TUE JAN 8 2008

...A TORNADO WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 500 PM CST FOR CALLOWAY
COUNTY IN WESTERN KENTUCKY...

AT 435 PM CST...TRAINED WEATHER SPOTTERS REPORTED A FUNNEL CLOUD 2
MILES WEST OF MURRAY. THIS STORM WAS MOVING NORTHEAST AT 55 MPH.
DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED STRONG ROTATION NEAR TAYLORS STORE AND
HAZEL. THIS STORM WAS ALSO MOVING NORTHEAST AT 55 MPH.

LOCATIONS IN THE WARNING INCLUDE BUT ARE NOT LIMITED TO STELLA...
PENNY...MURRAY...ALMO HEIGHTS...ALMO...POTTERTOWN...VAN CLEAVE...
SHILOH...BOATWRIGHT...HICO AND FAXON.

HEAVY RAINFALL MAY OBSCURE THIS TORNADO. TAKE COVER NOW! IF YOU WAIT
TO SEE OR HEAR IT COMING...IT MAY BE TOO LATE TO GET TO A SAFE PLACE.
Member Since: July 14, 2005 Posts: 14 Comments: 7418
120. V26R
10:38 PM GMT on January 08, 2008
Oh Ya Beat me to it this time Bone
Scarey thing is that the they are now mentioning that the Tornados may be obscured by heavy rain and not visible
Typical of Tornados on the EC
Member Since: July 20, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 1762
119. Bonedog
5:36 PM EST on January 08, 2008
its really pooping out there :(

hope everyone is staying safe. I know there has been 1 fatality so far today. I hope there is no more.
Member Since: July 14, 2005 Posts: 14 Comments: 7418
117. Bonedog
5:36 PM EST on January 08, 2008
Local weather forecast by "City, St" or zip code

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Tornado Warning

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
434 PM CST TUE JAN 8 2008

KYC033-082245-
/O.CON.KPAH.TO.W.0008.000000T0000Z-080108T2245Z/
CALDWELL KY-
434 PM CST TUE JAN 8 2008

...A TORNADO WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 445 PM CST FOR NORTHERN
CALDWELL COUNTY IN WESTERN KENTUCKY...

AT 430 PM CST...WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR CONTINUED TO INDICATE A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A TORNADO. THIS STORM WAS
LOCATED NEAR FLAT ROCK...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 55 MPH.

SEEK SHELTER INDOORS IN A BASEMENT...OR IN AN INTERIOR ROOM ON THE
LOWEST FLOOR OF YOUR HOME OR BUILDING. STAY TUNED TO WEATHER RADIO OR
LOCAL MEDIA FOR THE LATEST SEVERE WEATHER INFORMATION.

LAT...LON 3717 8804 3718 8807 3718 8809 3723 8808
3724 8806 3726 8803 3733 8789 3733 8788
3719 8778 3711 8801
TIME...MOT...LOC 2234Z 233DEG 39KT 3726 8789

$$






--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
430 PM CST TUE JAN 8 2008

KYC035-082300-
/O.CON.KPAH.TO.W.0009.000000T0000Z-080108T2300Z/
CALLOWAY KY-
430 PM CST TUE JAN 8 2008

...A TORNADO WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 500 PM CST FOR CALLOWAY
COUNTY IN WESTERN KENTUCKY...

AT 430 PM CST...STORM SPOTTERS REPORTED A WALL CLOUD BETWEEN LYNN
GROVE AND MURRAY. THE STORM WAS MOVING NORTHEAST AT 60 MPH.

SEEK SHELTER INDOORS IN A BASEMENT...OR IN AN INTERIOR ROOM ON THE
LOWEST FLOOR OF YOUR HOME OR BUILDING. STAY TUNED TO WEATHER RADIO OR
LOCAL MEDIA FOR THE LATEST SEVERE WEATHER INFORMATION.

LAT...LON 3662 8849 3667 8839 3674 8817 3674 8811
3673 8810 3667 8807 3650 8830 3650 8850
TIME...MOT...LOC 2230Z 235DEG 43KT 3664 8838

$$






--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

TORNADO WARNING
INC051-125-163-173-082315-
/O.NEW.KPAH.TO.W.0010.080108T2225Z-080108T2315Z/

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
TORNADO WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
425 PM CST TUE JAN 8 2008

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN PADUCAH KENTUCKY HAS ISSUED A

* TORNADO WARNING FOR...
EASTERN GIBSON COUNTY IN SOUTHWEST INDIANA
PIKE COUNTY IN SOUTHWEST INDIANA
VANDERBURGH COUNTY IN SOUTHWEST INDIANA
NORTHERN WARRICK COUNTY IN SOUTHWEST INDIANA

* UNTIL 515 PM CST/615 PM EST/.

* AT 420 PM CST...TRAINED WEATHER SPOTTERS REPORTED A FUNNEL CLOUD
NEAR CENTRAL HIGH SCHOOL IN EVANSVILLE...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 60 MPH.

* LOCATIONS IN THE WARNING INCLUDE BUT ARE NOT LIMITED TO NISBET...
MCCUTCHANVILLE...ELLIOT...SOMMERVILLE AND WINSLOW.

NOW IS THE TIME TO IMPLEMENT YOUR TORNADO PLAN OF ACTION. SEEK
SHELTER INDOORS IN A BASEMENT...OR IN AN INTERIOR ROOM ON THE LOWEST
FLOOR OF YOUR HOME OR BUILDING. STAY TUNED TO WEATHER RADIO OR LOCAL
MEDIA FOR THE LATEST SEVERE WEATHER INFORMATION.

HEAVY RAINFALL MAY OBSCURE THIS TORNADO. TAKE COVER NOW! IF YOU WAIT
TO SEE OR HEAR IT COMING...IT MAY BE TOO LATE TO GET TO A SAFE PLACE.
Member Since: July 14, 2005 Posts: 14 Comments: 7418
116. V26R
10:32 PM GMT on January 08, 2008
I agree Storm Please share when possible!!!
Good Luck with the Trip!
Make Us Proud!
Member Since: July 20, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 1762
115. Weather456
6:26 PM AST on January 08, 2008
98. StormW 6:00 PM AST on January 08, 2008
95. CybrTeddy 4:55 PM EST on January 08, 2008
Been good Storm, I have been watching the 07 Hurricane season, and I am ready for 08 hurricane season

You and me both.

Coast Guard is flying me up to the main command in Norfolk, VA. on Monday. They want me to give the same presentation I gave at USF back in Nov. on what I use and how I come up with a hurricane forecast. I 've been informed the Rear Admiral will be there.

You wont mind sharing that presentation?
Member Since: July 24, 2005 Posts: 407 Comments: 19076
114. Bonedog
5:28 PM EST on January 08, 2008
yea Storm. doesnt seem like this year will see an offseason to the severe weather unfortunatly.

I do agree that Mother Nature is POed.

Weather is all about balance, guess the bubble is tilted a little too much for Her likeing.

Member Since: July 14, 2005 Posts: 14 Comments: 7418
113. GBlet
10:28 PM GMT on January 08, 2008
This year could be a real doozey!
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
111. Weather456
6:08 PM AST on January 08, 2008
....SYNOPSIS....

GULF OF MEXICO/NORTHWEST ATLANTIC OCEAN WEST OF 50W....

A shortwave 500 hpa trough digs across the Eastern Rockies/Central Plains with the associated surface cold front extending from the Texas Coast across the Deep South into the Ohio Valley. Instability created both by upper level winds ahead the shortwave and surface inflow from the Gulf is leading to the development of severe thunderstorms within 200 nm of the front. 15-20 knot return flow and fair weather dominates the Gulf of Mexico this afternoon. Radiosonde data from cities across the US and Mexican Gulf Coast indicate significant mid-upper level dry stable sits across the region.

The 1030 mb Bermuda High is centered at 33N/57W. Surface winds over the Western Atlantic are predominantly anticyclonic at 5-10 knots with fair weather. The major features over the Atlantic today are a mid-upper level low circulation near 21N-60W based on water vapor derived winds from CIMSS. Typical synoptic scale rising motion right of this feature is producing scattered showers and possible thunderstorms from 60W-50W north of 20N. Another area of disturbed weather is just to the east of that feature. This feature is accompanied surface trough that extends along 20N/50W-30N/47W, producing scattered showers between 50W and 40W north of 20N. The NHC is forecasting a 1013 mb low to develop in association with this feature, and this is key because global models for the past several days have been indicating development. Environmental conditions still remain hostile.


by W456
Member Since: July 24, 2005 Posts: 407 Comments: 19076
110. GBlet
10:26 PM GMT on January 08, 2008
You said it Storm. Makes me worry about whats in store for my neck of the woods. We were in the path of the Greensburg tornado last spring!
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
109. V26R
10:25 PM GMT on January 08, 2008
Amount of Lightning associated with the front seems to be getting narrower
Wonder if it has picked up some foward momentum!

Link
Member Since: July 20, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 1762
107. Bonedog
5:15 PM EST on January 08, 2008
storm I just read about the presintation. congrats!
Member Since: July 14, 2005 Posts: 14 Comments: 7418

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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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