The tropics today

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 2:14 PM GMT on September 01, 2005

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Just a quick update on the tropics this morning, and I hope to post more on Katrina later today.

The most significant threat in the tropics is the potential on Sunday or Monday for a tropical depression to develop in the waters between the Bahamas and Bermuda. This is the same location that Katrina developed. This development would occur at the tail end of a cold front that is expected to push off of the East Coast. The latest GFS model run is showing two possible areas of formation, one near Bermuda, and one near the east coast of Florida. If a depression does form near the east coast of Florida, the likely track would be across Florida and into the Gulf of Mexico. If formation occurs closer to Bermuda, the likely track would be northeastward away from land. I think it is unlikey that two systems would form in the this region; the energy for storm formation will probably concentrate in one area and create one storm. Let's hope that if this occurs, the formation region will be closer to Bermuda and the storm will head out to sea.


Figure 1. GFS forecast for 2am Monday, showing two possible locations a tropical depression may form.

Tropical Depression Lee is nothing to worry about, it is too far north to have a chance at affecting land, and is suffering from shear that will keep it weak or potentially dissipate it over the next few days. The well-organized wave 1100 miles east of the Lesser Antilles is looking better organized today. The shear over it is relaxing, the dry air on its west side has decreased some, and deep convection is starting to build on the north side. This system will probably become Tropical Depression 14 later today, but its relatively northerly location and northwesterly motion make this system no threat to land. This system will probably recurve out to sea. The most significant threat in the tropicas may be from the tropical wave southwest of the Cape Verdes Islands. This system is far enough south, near latitude 9N, that it will not get recurved out to sea by the mid-Atlantic trough. The tropical wave is currently in a region of strong enough shear that development will not occur, but this shear is expected to relax by Saturday as the wave continues westward over the open Atlantic. As was the case with yesterday's model runs, the GFS forecasts that this wave will become a major hurricane and a potentially threaten the Leeward Islands a week from now.

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588. killdevilmax
5:41 AM GMT on September 02, 2005
Diesel guy- You ought to poat that on auto every 15 minutes.
Member Since: August 28, 2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 322
587. killdevilmax
5:39 AM GMT on September 02, 2005
Can someone post how to subscribe to Steve's enhanced service? Thanks
Member Since: August 28, 2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 322
586. SMU88
2:26 AM GMT on September 02, 2005
thank you hurricane79
Member Since: August 20, 2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 29
585. hurricane79
1:50 AM GMT on September 02, 2005
SMU88, I do have the non-color version of what you're looking for Link
584. hurricane79
1:48 AM GMT on September 02, 2005
SMU88, I do not have the colored version to Africa, but I have the N. America Colorfill. Let me know if u want the link
583. P682
1:30 AM GMT on September 02, 2005
Well stated Dieselguy!
582. JadeInAntigua
12:59 AM GMT on September 02, 2005
This season is definitely far from over. Please keep those updates coming...particularly worried about the wave behind TD14.
Member Since: September 1, 2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 129
581. SMU88
11:48 PM GMT on September 01, 2005
Where does Dr. Masters get this GFS model? I have been to the Experimental forecast Tropical Cyclone Genesis Potential Fields website but it does have this particulat GFS model. Can anyone direct me in the right direction?
Member Since: August 20, 2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 29
580. Jedkins
11:25 PM GMT on September 01, 2005
The storm surge from katrina is just plain out amazing...up to 30 ft(not confirmed yet)and that is just crazy,and in most areas where and near the eyewall past,whatever the surge left,the wind took.
579. leftyy420
11:02 PM GMT on September 01, 2005
lets move this to the new blog thread people. and make sure u thasnk jeff for clearing the air about the topics we disscus during this hard time
Member Since: August 24, 2005 Posts: 35 Comments: 1987
578. subtropic
11:00 PM GMT on September 01, 2005
Amen Dieselguy.
Member Since: August 29, 2002 Posts: 209 Comments: 4434
577. OBXER
11:00 PM GMT on September 01, 2005
Disel read the latest update by Jeff Masters
Member Since: September 24, 2001 Posts: 0 Comments: 11
576. dieselguy
10:57 PM GMT on September 01, 2005
I've been reading this blog and offer the following comments:
This is a blog about tropical cyclones. If you want to bash our president, our military, or complain about gas prices, then go somewhere else.
My father is currently working in the FEMA command center, so I have a few insights. In case you've forgotten, this hurricane hit southern Florida first. FEMA deployed its resources there, then had to reposition them once they figured out where Katrina was going to hit the second time. The people of New Orleans were told to evacuate and many didn't. They were told to get to a shelter and many didn't. Now many of them are behaving like animals. Why has relief appeared to be so slow in arriving? Do you think it's because all the roads in to the city were impassable? The airports are unusable. How do you propose the relief personnel and supplies get in there? As an active duty Air Force officer, I can tell you that the military is providing massive support, but it doesn't happen overnight. Again, they have to get there. And where do you propose they house and feed our troops? Facilities don't just magically appear. Let these people do their jobs and take your non-weather related opinions somewhere else.
575. leftyy420
10:56 PM GMT on September 01, 2005
wow that man is a god. he has a big heart. huy in houston is hosting 20 evacuess in his home. he helpedto get peopleout befor the storm hit
Member Since: August 24, 2005 Posts: 35 Comments: 1987
574. Boomshea
10:55 PM GMT on September 01, 2005
Hello all, I have been lurking here since Sunday and want to thank everyone for all the info and updating as much as you do. Through all the political talk and personal bickering that occurs too often on any internet discussion a great deal of good information was exchanged and I learned a ton about hurricanes and what causes them and the termonology. Saying all that I wanted to let everyone know the is a new Blog Entry by Dr. Jeff Masters.
573. leftyy420
10:54 PM GMT on September 01, 2005
what were they saying
Member Since: August 24, 2005 Posts: 35 Comments: 1987
572. whitewabit (Mod)
10:54 PM GMT on September 01, 2005
cgables

so did you get my point? I had no right to tell you,, as

you did not have the right to say what you did to jeff!!!
Member Since: August 17, 2005 Posts: 362 Comments: 31358
571. OBXER
10:52 PM GMT on September 01, 2005
Hey Jeffy read Jeff Masters latest report and by the way LIMEDILLIGAF LOL
Member Since: September 24, 2001 Posts: 0 Comments: 11
570. leftyy420
10:52 PM GMT on September 01, 2005
catch u later weather watcher
Member Since: August 24, 2005 Posts: 35 Comments: 1987
569. CosmicEvents
10:52 PM GMT on September 01, 2005
Turn on NBC right now
Member Since: August 3, 2005 Posts: 10 Comments: 5562
568. Weatherwatcher007
10:51 PM GMT on September 01, 2005
This will likely be my last blog of the day (work I have to do) so please listen.

I would like to thank everyone who prayed for the safety of my aunt. She is fine and will likely stay in CT until she is able to return to NOLA safely.

I fervently pray that a significant amount of help arrives along the gulf coast to help the refugees.

We have to watch the tropics.

Bye.
567. leftyy420
10:50 PM GMT on September 01, 2005
yeah 79 that was what i was saying earlier today.its a watch and see thing cause all ofit depends on somethings that may never happen
Member Since: August 24, 2005 Posts: 35 Comments: 1987
566. leftyy420
10:49 PM GMT on September 01, 2005
wow now they say 10 not 8 refineries are down and no sign when they will be back up
Member Since: August 24, 2005 Posts: 35 Comments: 1987
565. hurricane79
10:49 PM GMT on September 01, 2005
Looks like main factor for the system is still the development of a low off the East Florida Coast, models react significantly to it with respect to the upper level flow. So, we will need to wait and see the model trends.
564. leftyy420
10:46 PM GMT on September 01, 2005
that couldbe headed for the south east us say northern florida,ga, or sc
Member Since: August 24, 2005 Posts: 35 Comments: 1987
563. jeff14photos
10:46 PM GMT on September 01, 2005
not gas agian and its was getting to weather lefty you have to ruin it always
562. hurricane79
10:45 PM GMT on September 01, 2005
True lefty, away from the Gulf is good.. I am watching the GFS 18Z come in right now and it creates a zonal flow over the US and atlantic by day 7. This may allow ridges to fill in and bring the eventually closer. We will wait and see though. Link
561. leftyy420
10:44 PM GMT on September 01, 2005
wow gas hit 3.69 in my area
Member Since: August 24, 2005 Posts: 35 Comments: 1987
560. Jedkins
10:43 PM GMT on September 01, 2005
Crap 870 mb,190 mph winds...1350 MILES ACROSS!
559. Carbo04
10:42 PM GMT on September 01, 2005
Yea, Furstie. Typhoon Tip was the strongest, and largest storm ever. 200 MPH winds, and a record 870 MB pressure. It was also thousands of miles in size. It's said that if the eye of tip made landfall in Miami, places as far north as Charlotte north carolina would be getting tropical storm winds.

558. Jedkins
10:41 PM GMT on September 01, 2005
It seems like in the west pacific MOST of the time the storms are significantly weaker when they make landfall, not sure why though....
557. leftyy420
10:41 PM GMT on September 01, 2005
man there is a system in their now that just looks good. as it moves west it will get better upper enviroment and could really take off. the gfdl looks scary
Member Since: August 24, 2005 Posts: 35 Comments: 1987
556. furstie
10:40 PM GMT on September 01, 2005
I've always been fascinated with the Pacific/Australian hurricane seasons. Now, if you want to talk massive storm, look at Typhoon Tip from the late 70s. I've always wished I could find more information on that one.

On the other end of the spectrum is super small but power packed Cyclone Tracy. The GALE wind radius (not even hurricane) of that storm was a mere 25 miles from the eye.

I spent an entire day looking through all the weird storms a few months ago, fascinating stuff.
555. jeff14photos
10:40 PM GMT on September 01, 2005
finally weather talk
554. cgableshurrycanegal
10:40 PM GMT on September 01, 2005
yeah, itcz is a bad breeding ground
Member Since: July 12, 2005 Posts: 24 Comments: 212
553. Carbo04
10:39 PM GMT on September 01, 2005
cgableshurrycanegal... You're welcome, but coreection. I meant West Pac as opposed to east pac. The east pac basin is very small compared to the west, and even atlantic as far as development area.
552. leftyy420
10:38 PM GMT on September 01, 2005
you know after katrina for atleast 2 days i was so sick i didn't even want to look at the tropics. i did for the first time last night and that second storm, the one in the itcz right now looks scary
Member Since: August 24, 2005 Posts: 35 Comments: 1987
551. cgableshurrycanegal
10:38 PM GMT on September 01, 2005
hey you guys, away from the US. All resources are in the GULF!!! That's where we need to be!!!
Member Since: July 12, 2005 Posts: 24 Comments: 212
550. leftyy420
10:36 PM GMT on September 01, 2005
wow 79 me and u are seeing things the same. lets watch and see what happens as long as it stays away from the gulf lol
Member Since: August 24, 2005 Posts: 35 Comments: 1987
549. cgableshurrycanegal
10:36 PM GMT on September 01, 2005
carbo, thx, didn't realize it was that much warmer, that makes it a bathtub.
Member Since: July 12, 2005 Posts: 24 Comments: 212
548. leftyy420
10:35 PM GMT on September 01, 2005
oh yeah i feel you on that carbo but she is markedly smaller storm. the size of katrina aided her destruction.

and yes the pacific is hoter and has more heat content than the atl but that hot water and heat content weakens as u get into the central and eastern pacific, which is why u don't see hurricanes hitting california
Member Since: August 24, 2005 Posts: 35 Comments: 1987
547. hurricane79
10:34 PM GMT on September 01, 2005
Exactly Lefty, that is why I suggest that the possibility of a system forming East of LForida should be dismissed unless it actually happens (at least a system of significance). A weak low off Florida will not create an extended weakness in the ridge.
546. Jedkins
10:34 PM GMT on September 01, 2005
Katrina was huge in the gulf 175 mph winds 902mb,hurricane force wind field was 220 miles acroos out in the gulf as it was a 5,tropical storm winds about 410 miles across.And the cat 5 winds were 50 miles across....The strorm in the pacific actually appears a bit smaller to me accept for the eye.
545. StormJunkie
10:34 PM GMT on September 01, 2005
For those of you complaining about the political talk. The weather has just had the largest impact on our society in years. They have just become very well linked. I will be back on the tropics as soon as North American Landmass is in threat. After that threat is going I will go back to the Kat aftermath. THe weather and politics and gas and death and the economy have just become linked so closely that it is inavoidable to deal with the situation we are in. I think that those of you that want to move on either are to ignorant or young to understand what this 1 tropical system has done to our way of life.

I am out. I need a break and after that I will be back to discuss whatever NEEDS to be talked about.
Member Since: August 17, 2005 Posts: 26 Comments: 16440
544. Carbo04
10:33 PM GMT on September 01, 2005
lefty, is the PAC THAT much warmer than the ATL?

They East Pac has Gulf/Carribean type warm water over a much bigger area. Plus the atmosphere conditions are a little different. I'm guessing that's why storms get worse there/
543. leftyy420
10:32 PM GMT on September 01, 2005
yeah 79 and that weakness is determned by the formation of a cyclone near florida. if it moves north the weakness might be left behind her. if she moves into the gulf there would be no weakness
Member Since: August 24, 2005 Posts: 35 Comments: 1987
542. Weatherwatcher007
10:31 PM GMT on September 01, 2005
Oh no, say it ain't so

Link
541. cgableshurrycanegal
10:31 PM GMT on September 01, 2005
lefty, is the PAC THAT much warmer than the ATL?
Member Since: July 12, 2005 Posts: 24 Comments: 212
540. Carbo04
10:31 PM GMT on September 01, 2005
Lefty, I was talking stronger as in pressure wise, and the fact it's still getting stronger.
539. OBXER
10:30 PM GMT on September 01, 2005
Lefty which system are you talking about?
Member Since: September 24, 2001 Posts: 0 Comments: 11
538. leftyy420
10:30 PM GMT on September 01, 2005
the gfdl makes her 140 kts at flight level in 4 days. thats well above the 115 needed to be a major hurricane
Member Since: August 24, 2005 Posts: 35 Comments: 1987

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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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