Blizzards, hurricane force winds pound California

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 8:37 PM GMT on January 04, 2008

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A mighty hurricane-force Pacific storm continues to clobber California with blizzards, damaging winds, and flooding rains. Hardest hit are the Sierra Mountains, where winds at Ward Mountain near Lake Tahoe were 86 mph, gusting to 163 mph, at 11 am PST. The storm responsible is visible just off the coast of Washington (Figure 1), and has a central pressure near 960 mb--similar to that of a Category 2 hurricane. Blizzard conditions will continue over much of the Sierras, with 2-5 feet likely to fall by Saturday. Travel will be difficult of impossible in the northern mountains of California Friday and Saturday. Snow amounts may reach 10 feet by Monday in some mountain regions of California.


Figure 1. Visible satellite image of the California blizzard of 2008.

The storm pounded the San Francisco Bay area this morning with remarkable ferocity, bringing winds of tropical storm force to the entire region, accompanied by extremely heavy rain. Sustained winds of 53 mph gusting to 67 mph were measured at the San Francisco airport, forcing cancellation of 35 flights. High winds on the Richmond-San Rafael Bridge forced closure of the bridge during the morning commute, when trucks toppled over on both upper and lower spans. Winds gusting to 70 mph were recorded on the Golden Gate bridge. At Mt. Diablo State Park just east of Oakland, sustained winds of 62 mph were reported at 9 am PST. A wind gust of 105 mph was reported at Los Gatos south of San Jose at 12pm PST. Ten inches of rain in 24 hours fell 13 miles southeast of Los Gatos.

In Southern California, the concern is heavy rain and flooding. Rainfall rates of up to an inch per hour are expected in the mountains, with total rain amounts of up to 10 inches expected in the south facing mountains. Landslides and debris flows are likely on the hillsides burned by the recent fires. Strong, damaging winds are expected over much of Southern California, as well. High winds over the the ocean will bring swells of 6-10 feet to the coast and 20 foot seas offshore, and isolated thunderstorms could spawn waterspouts. The storm responsible for the wild weather will weaken and move ashore on Saturday over British Columbia, but will still be strong enough to bring additional heavy rains, high winds, and mountain snows to California through Sunday.

Jeff Masters

Tahoe blizzard 2008 (pmik)
waiting on what is supposed to be a blizzard
Tahoe blizzard 2008
Northern Calif. Storm (sdminer)
A fence that borders the Muni tracks on King Street was downed by heavy winds during the storm that hit Northern California Friday. Taking up a nearly a full lane, traffic was backed up for blocks coming off the 280 and Fourth Street. Photo: Stephen Dorian Miner
Northern Calif. Storm

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52. tmangray
10:10 PM GMT on January 04, 2008
Buoy 46059 located 357m west of San Francisco up to 35 foot seas at 1:50 PM.

Our wind here along the east shore of SF Bay has shifted from SW to W and much calmer than only an hour ago. Moderate rain continues.
51. weatherdogg
10:16 PM GMT on January 04, 2008
I know it is subtropical air, but what's the wind chill factor with the 165 MPH gust?

At some point, I think that friction would actually start to cancel out the heat removal effects, so the stat become meaningless.
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50. Tazmanian
10:17 PM GMT on January 04, 2008
Hard Closure" Established For Shaws Flat Rd.
Friday, January 04, 2008 - 02:05 PM

Bill Johnson
MML News Director
Sonora, CA -- P.G.& E. has called for a "hard closure" for Shaws Flat Rd. between Banner and Corte del Encino due to a fallen power line.

A "hard closure" means not even residents of that area can access to their respective residences.

P.G.& E. has advised the Sonora Police Department that this "hard closure" will probably last for several hours.

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49. Bonedog
5:13 PM EST on January 04, 2008
wow since 6am every gust has been over 110mph! no wonder the guage failed.
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48. 1900hurricane
4:04 PM CST on January 04, 2008
Here are some of the measurements from Ward Mountain. I suspect that the wind gauge may have failed after the 1pm measurement, which recorded a gust of 165 mph. Any winds over hurricane force is in bold.

MN DY Hour Temp | Wind |
av mx mn | Dir Speed Gst |
1 4 1300 29 29 27 226 6999 (?) 165
1 4 1200 27 27 26 230 56 118
1 4 1100 27 28 26 229 86 163
1 4 1000 26 27 26 224 79 127
1 4 0900 26 27 26 222 71 113
1 4 0800 27 27 27 210 79 124
1 4 0700 27 28 27 206 86 129
1 4 0600 27 28 27 206 73 112
1 4 0500 28 28 27 209 60 93
1 4 0400 26 27 26 216 58 77
1 4 0300 25 26 24 223 54 88
1 4 0200 24 25 24 232 47 70
1 4 0100 24 24 24 235 49 72
1 4 0000 24 24 23 216 61 81
1 3 2300 23 23 22 225 52 78
1 3 2200 23 24 22 221 58 84
1 3 2100 23 24 23 218 38 71
1 3 2000 22 23 22 210 24 53
1 3 1900 21 23 20 211 44 86
1 3 1800 20 20 20 235 46 85
1 3 1700 20 20 20 246 49 71
1 3 1600 21 22 20 241 64 83
1 3 1500 24 26 21 241 78 109
1 3 1400 27 27 25 240 76 112
1 3 1300 28 29 26 236 72 97
1 3 1200 28 29 27 237 71 98
1 3 1100 27 28 26 237 73 108
1 3 1000 27 27 26 239 72 99
1 3 0900 26 27 26 238 72 95
1 3 0800 26 27 25 238 67 98
1 3 0700 26 27 25 237 68 102
1 3 0600 25 26 24 236 64 89
1 3 0500 24 25 24 241 59 92
1 3 0400 24 25 24 241 56 75
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47. Ivansrvivr
10:08 PM GMT on January 04, 2008
I've seen 130+ at 70degrees, trust me 165 feels cold and you dont want to find that out firsthand!
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46. Ivansrvivr
10:04 PM GMT on January 04, 2008
That storm is reminiscent of an El Nino event. That is natures way of making up of lack of tropical energy saved from last summer
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45. 1900hurricane
4:04 PM CST on January 04, 2008
This one's even better.

Link
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44. 1900hurricane
4:01 PM CST on January 04, 2008
Here's another good loop of the storm.

Link
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43. tmangray
10:01 PM GMT on January 04, 2008
NWS reports local stream flooding from excessive rainfall near Reno. Snow level remains high. Donner Pass was still open as of noon. Waiting for the blizzard.
42. 1900hurricane
4:01 PM CST on January 04, 2008
Yeah, pressures in the storm have been below 960 mbs since last night.
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41. Winterstormsblog
9:51 PM GMT on January 04, 2008
Wow, this is quite a storm out west!
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40. Tazmanian
9:55 PM GMT on January 04, 2008
we most have 75 to 80 mph winds right now its been like this for hrs now how march longer will it last dont no if we can take any more of this we have not yet lost power but if this keep going like this will be lossing power vary soon or at any time
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39. Bonedog
4:55 PM EST on January 04, 2008


with the chart only going to 60 have to extrapolate using the formula on the bottom of the chart
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38. tmangray
9:52 PM GMT on January 04, 2008
Typical overstatement by the media. Hardly an Arctic storm. Basically a powerful transpacific jetstream pulling in North Pacific air, phasing with a strong push from the subtropics. In fact, over the past week or so, it looked like a interhemispheric flow occurred south of Hawaii, and some of that got pulled into this storm.
37. Bonedog
4:54 PM EST on January 04, 2008
SOLAR CYCLE 24: Solar physicists have been waiting for the appearance of a reversed-polarity sunspot to signal the start of the next solar cycle. The wait is over. A magnetically reversed, high-latitude sunspot emerged today. If you have a solar telescope, take a look at this important new active region. It marks the beginning of Solar Cycle 24 and the sun's slow ascent back to Solar Maximum
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36. Weather456
5:49 PM AST on January 04, 2008
The use of QuikSCAT for extratropical transition.

Member Since: July 24, 2005 Posts: 407 Comments: 19076
35. Tazmanian
9:49 PM GMT on January 04, 2008
One Million Plus Without Power, Crews Scrambling
CBS13.com Storm Information Center
Video Forecast
SACRAMENTO (AP) ―
A fierce arctic storm pounded California Friday with heavy rain, whipping winds and knocking out power to more than a million customers.

According to Jennifer Ramp of PG&E, 1.2 million homes lost power today. 91 poles and 31 miles of wire are down as well as 61 transformers out.

Authorities warned truckers traveling in blizzard-like conditions over mountain passes in the Sierra Nevada to hunker down, and some ski resorts closed because of hazardous conditions.

"It's a whiteout here," said Neil Erasmus, general manager of Ice Lake Lodge and Rainbow Lodge in Soda Springs. "We're plowing and grooming, plowing and grooming to keep us from being buried in."

Forecasters said the mountains could see 10 feet of snow by storms end. A trio of storms was expected throughout the state through the weekend.

Winds howled in the mountain areas, gusting up to 85 miles an hour, and in the Sacramento Valley, gusts topped 65 miles an hour, the strongest in a decade.

The California Highway Patrol cautioned drivers and encouraged them to stay off the roads. Parts of highways from the Sacramento area to the San Francisco Bay Area were closed because of debris blocking lanes. Ferry service in the San Francisco Bay was interrupted, as well.

"It isn't the weather that causes these collisions, it's the way people drive in them," said Sgt. Les Bishop, a spokesman for California Highway Patrol. "It's no secret that we've got a major storm rolling in, and it's everybody's responsibility to drive in a safe manner."

Power was knocked out to hundreds of thousands of residents across Northern California, from the Bay Area to the Central Valley.

"Because of the strong winds and heavy rains, restoration is taking longer than normal," said Darlene Chiu, a spokeswoman for Pacific Gas and Electric.

Homeowners rushed to stack sandbags around houses, and scurried to stock up on last-minute provisions.

"People were waiting in line for shopping carts," said Barbara Sholle, of Mammoth Lakes. Sholle went to the supermarket after receiving a call from the eastern Sierra ski town's reverse-911 system. She waited an hour to pay for her groceries amid a crush of residents.

In Southern California, the storm was gathering strength off the coast and was expected to strike the region by mid-afternoon, National Weather Service forecaster Andrew Rorke said.

"We're watching it really blossom on satellite," he said.

The storm was expected to pound Southern California with 2-4 inches of rain overnight in the valleys, with 6 inches possible in the foothills of the San Gabriel Mountains and up to 12 inches overnight in the south-facing mountains from Ventura County south to San Diego.

"The last rain we had, it all went under my foundation and I don't like that. It was flowing under my house," said Cindy Darling, a receptionist at the Lake Arrowhead Chamber of Commerce who got sandbags from the local fire department to put above her house. "Everything up here's on a hill, so you have to do something."

Authorities in Orange County issued a voluntary evacuation order for residents of fire-scarred Modjeska and Silverado canyons beginning Friday afternoon. The order also calls for the mandatory evacuation of large animals from the mudslide-prone canyons, where 15 homes burned last fall in a 28,000-acre wildfire.

Ocean tides were expected to swell to 30 feet, prompting the U.S. Coast Guard to caution boaters to remain in port.

No planes were taking off or landing at Sacramento International Airport because of high winds, but the airport remained open, said spokeswoman Gina Swankie.

The U.S. Forest Service issued an avalanche warning for Mount Shasta, in the Cascade Range in far Northern California.

"If you don't have to go out this weekend, it might be a nice weekend to stay at home after the holidays," said Frank McCarton, chief deputy director of the California Office of Emergency Services.

The state opened its emergency operations center Friday morning to coordinate storm response.

Riverside and San Bernardino counties have deployed swift-water rescue teams in case torrential rains bring flash floods and mudslides.

Several ski resorts weren't taking any chances, with Heavenly Mountain Resort at South Lake Tahoe, Alpine Meadows Ski Area in Tahoe City and Mt. Rose Ski Resort near Reno shutting down for the day.

"It's just really, really windy and we don't feel it's safe conditions for our operators or the public," Alpine Meadows spokeswoman Laura Ryan said.

Snow began falling in Tuolumne Meadows Thursday night, and a steady rain was pelting the Yosemite Valley by Friday morning, Gediman said.

Residents and local officials from Sacramento to Manteca planned to patrol the Sacramento-San Joaquin Delta during high tide midday Friday to watch for levee breaks, but weren't predicting major floods, said Ron Baldwin, director of emergency operations for San Joaquin County.

"We're going to have to keep an eye on the water and the high tides but we're hopeful we can get through this without any problems," Baldwin said. "That said, no one's going home."
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34. 1900hurricane
3:46 PM CST on January 04, 2008
This storm is HUGE!!!

Click for a loop

Click the image above for a loop.
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33. 1900hurricane
3:42 PM CST on January 04, 2008
With a 29 degree temp, that would leave the wind chill at 1.
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32. tornadofan
9:38 PM GMT on January 04, 2008
I know it is subtropical air, but what's the wind chill factor with the 165 MPH gust?
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31. 1900hurricane
3:39 PM CST on January 04, 2008
165 mph?!?!?! That's something that is normally only seen in a Tropical Cyclone, in Antarctica, or on top of Mt. Washington!
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30. thetimmer
9:36 PM GMT on January 04, 2008
Ward Mountain is actually Ward Peak. There is a Ward Mountain in eastern Nevada. Ward Peak is the highest point at the Alpine Meadows ski area. I skied there back in 2003 and boy was that a windy peak even on a nice day! 1pm PST winds gusted to 165mph! There's ski lifts near the peak there. I wonder if they withstand this onslaught.
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29. tmangray
9:31 PM GMT on January 04, 2008
Buoy 46059 located 325 miles west of San Francisco is now reporting 32 foot seas. Buoy 46026 just outside the Gate is showing 20 foot seas.
28. tmangray
9:24 PM GMT on January 04, 2008
At 12:53 PM, South Lake Tahoe reports heavy rain and fog. Snow level still pretty high in the subtropical air ahead of the cold front.
27. Eegah
9:09 PM GMT on January 04, 2008
We're getting absolutely drenched here in Sacramento now, this is just nuts.
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26. Tazmanian
9:13 PM GMT on January 04, 2008
Power Lines Down On Shaws Flat Rd.
Friday, January 04, 2008 - 01:05 PM

Bill Johnson
MML News Director
Sonora, CA -- Power lines are reportedly down near the Elks Lodge on Shaws Flat Rd.

P.G.& E. crews are responding. Please avoid that area if at all possible
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25. Bonedog
4:11 PM EST on January 04, 2008
Cloudsat pass over the system earlier (9:05 UTC)

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24. palmettobug53
9:09 PM GMT on January 04, 2008
Sheeesh.... Glad I'm not out West right now. Hope our West Coast bloggers stay safe.
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23. Tazmanian
9:09 PM GMT on January 04, 2008
when sould i start see the snow levels drop???
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22. Bonedog
4:07 PM EST on January 04, 2008
why Lake. whats up with bermuda right now?
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21. ShenValleyFlyFish
3:55 PM EST on January 04, 2008
Thanks for the update Dr M
Boy I'm sure glad I'm not in those passes in a covered wagon.
Shen
Member Since: September 9, 2007 Posts: 36 Comments: 4687
20. Weather456
5:05 PM AST on January 04, 2008
an additional update...a ship with the calling sign KRGB reported 50 knot winds at 1800 UTC this afternoon.
Member Since: July 24, 2005 Posts: 407 Comments: 19076
19. LakeShadow
8:59 PM GMT on January 04, 2008
Hey, anyone know if Orcasystems is in Bermuda? If he is, well he's got excellent timing!
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18. Bonedog
4:04 PM EST on January 04, 2008
if that 10 min average is true thats Cat 3 strength winds!!!

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17. Weather456
5:03 PM AST on January 04, 2008
More updates at my blog
Member Since: July 24, 2005 Posts: 407 Comments: 19076
16. V26R
9:00 PM GMT on January 04, 2008
Looks like Monday is going to be interesting in the Plains for Severe Stuff

DAY 4-8 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0357 AM CST FRI JAN 04 2008

VALID 071200Z - 121200Z

...DISCUSSION...
04/00Z ECMWF AND GFS ARE IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH DAY 4...
MONDAY...WITH THE TRACK OF A PACIFIC SHORT WAVE TROUGH. THIS SYSTEM
IS EXPECTED TO AMPLIFY AS IT MOVES EWD FROM THE LOWER CO RIVER
VALLEY INTO THE SRN HIGH PLAINS BY MONDAY AFTERNOON AND THEN NEWD
ACROSS OK/KS TO IA/LOWER MO RIVER VALLEY BY LATE MONDAY NIGHT. SLY
LOW LEVEL FLOW AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM WILL MAINTAIN MOISTURE
ADVECTION/DESTABILIZATION THROUGH THE ARKLATEX INTO MO AS AN
ATTENDANT SURFACE LOW DEEPENS FROM SWRN KS INTO IA BY 12Z TUESDAY.
BOTH MODELS AGREE WITH POTENTIAL FOR SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY AND
STRONG DEEP LAYER SHEAR ALONG THE TRAILING COLD FRONT FOR SEVERE
TSTMS DEVELOPING BY MONDAY EVENING ACROSS ERN PORTIONS OF THE SRN
PLAINS AND SPREADING INTO THE ARKLATEX TO SRN MO MONDAY NIGHT.

DURING DAY 5...TUESDAY...THE ECMWF AND GFS DIFFER WITH THE
AMPLIFICATION AND STRENGTH OF THE SRN EXTENT OF THE DAY 4 TROUGH AS
IT MOVES EWD ACROSS E TX/LOWER MS VALLEY. THE GFS IS STRONGER AND
FASTER WITH SYSTEM REACHING CENTRAL GULF COAST STATES BY 12Z
WEDNESDAY. DESPITE THESE DIFFERENCES...BOTH MODELS DO SUGGEST THE
POTENTIAL FOR SOME SEVERE TSTMS ACROSS THE LOWER MS VALLEY ON
TUESDAY. HOWEVER...GIVEN UNCERTAINTY IN STRENGTH UPPER SYSTEM...
THIS OUTLOOK WILL NOT INCLUDE A REGIONAL SEVERE WEATHER AREA FOR DAY
5.
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15. Bonedog
3:59 PM EST on January 04, 2008
928:Stateline1NW-Lakeshore/62 NV
Date Time(PST) Wind Speed-10 Min Avg (ALERT) (mph ) [ 12 reports]
1-Jan-08 15:33 127.80



Link
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14. Weather456
4:59 PM AST on January 04, 2008
A 958 mb storm is battering portions of the West Coast of North America from Northern California to British Colombia with high and dangerous seas; hurricane force wind gusts; along with heavy rain and snow. Latest observations indicate gale force winds extend well inland along with isolated areas of storm force winds.

Seas/Marine Weather
Lowest pressure recorded today was around 960 mb by buoy 46005 around 1500 UTC. The storm has yet cross several other buoys. Winds reported today were all above 30 knots and was reported by tons of buoys and two or three ships well away from the main action.

If you surf, well take advantage of this storm. Buoy reports, web cam views and models all indicate 30-40 ft swells being pushed onto the Northern California and Oregon Coasts.

Winds/Gusts Inland
For most of the day, stations reported gale force winds concentrated to the area of Northern California and Southern Oregon. Table 1 shows the highest reported gusts for the day across Northern California. Jet stream winds are currently 105 mph coming shore across Northeast California/Southeast Oregon. Figure shows the current wind speeds at 2000 UTC Friday 04 January, while table 2 shows additional observations taken today.

Total Rainfall and Snow Dept
Surprisingly, snow amounts are relatively low so far. Current reports have 24 hr snow at 1-2 inches with some reporting 2-4 inches. Rainfall is coming in at a steady rate with 4-6 inches across Northern California and Southern Oregon. Seems as though this is more of a wind event so far.

Storm Reports
The latest storm reports so far was from Canyon in Western Idaho which reported down power lines and trees. Look for more updates on this section.


Figure 1. Surface winds as at 2000 UTC 04 January 2007.


Figure 3. NWS radar of the Western United States.


Figure 4. The latest QuikSCAT winds of the storm.


Figure 5. Visible satellite imagery taken this afternoon showing impressive storm signatures.

\
Table 1. Highest reported wind gusts for Northern California.


Table 2. Selected observations across California and Oregon showing some of the highest gusts reported today.
Member Since: July 24, 2005 Posts: 407 Comments: 19076
13. Bonedog
3:57 PM EST on January 04, 2008
Speed Gst
56 118
86 163
79 127
71 113
79 124
86 129
73 112


wow Cat 1 winds up there!! Man this storm is powerfull

Link
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12. LakeShadow
8:57 PM GMT on January 04, 2008
I wonder where in the world is Jim Cantore?
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11. V26R
8:51 PM GMT on January 04, 2008
Interstate 80 is closed westbound into the
Passes because of the expected snowfall!
Man think they're gonna get nailed
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10. tmangray
8:54 PM GMT on January 04, 2008
Frontal passage occurred here (east shore of SF Bay) about 30 mins ago. Winds have come down quite a bit and shifted to the SW. Moderate rain falling at present.
9. LakeShadow
8:53 PM GMT on January 04, 2008
*repost*
AP article on the storm:
Link
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8. tmangray
8:48 PM GMT on January 04, 2008
Live report on noon news had their reporter in Truckee at 6000 feet, waiting for the snow. It was raining. No doubt, the snow will begin in earnest once the cold front pushes in behind the subtropical air ahead of it.
7. clydedog
8:49 PM GMT on January 04, 2008
Hey Bone,
Check out your link in post #112 from the previous blog. It shows the 163mph wind gust at Ward Mt.
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6. Bonedog
3:51 PM EST on January 04, 2008
Hourly data from along the Sierra Crest
near Lake Tahoe. Elevation: 8700 Feet
Collected by the National Weather Service - Reno NV

MN DY Hour Temp Dir Wind Spd Gust
1 4 1200 27 302 57 106
1 4 1100 27 328 62 109
1 4 1000 26 325 61 105
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5. Bonedog
3:48 PM EST on January 04, 2008
wow read this from the Reno forcast office!!!


...TRAVEL IMPACTS FOR THE SIERRA...
* DO NOT ATTEMPT TO TRAVEL IN THE SIERRA TODAY AND SATURDAY.
* ATTEMPTING TO TRAVEL IN THE SIERRA WILL PUT YOUR LIFE AT RISK!


Thats a pretty strong stament hope folks head the warning
Link
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4. lawntonlookers
8:45 PM GMT on January 04, 2008
Thanks for the update Dr. Masters. The last blog was keeping a good track on the storm and folloging the various post was interesting with a lot of interesting observations.
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3. Bonedog
3:47 PM EST on January 04, 2008
Thanks for the update Doc
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2. Fshhead
8:46 PM GMT on January 04, 2008
A gust of 163 mph.? WOW! Thanx for the update
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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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