Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.
By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 5:38 PM GMT on December 29, 2007
OK, here we go one more time in '07! A non-tropical low pressure system dubbed Invest 95L, near 27N 38W, way out in the middle of the Atlantic Ocean, has cut off from the jet stream and is beginning to acquire tropical characteristics as it sits nearly stationary over waters of 22-23° C. Satellite imagery shows a curved band of heavy thunderstorms arcing 3/4 of the way around the large center of circulation. This morning's QuikSCAT pass showed winds of 30-35 mph in this band. Wind shear is about 20 knots over 95L, and this shear is expected to be 20-30 knots for the next two days, which may be low enough to allow the storm to develop into a subtropical storm before the year is out. The storm would be called Subtropical Storm Pablo, since the strongest winds are well removed from the center, and the system does not have a fully warm core.
Figure 1. Visible satellite image of Invest 95L in the middle of the Atlantic Ocean.
The four reliable computer models all predict little movement of 95L for the remainder of 2007, then a track to the west-southwest towards Puerto Rico and the northern Lesser Antilles Islands beginning on New Year's Day. Wind shear is forecast to rise to prohibitively high levels by January 1, so it is highly unlikely this storm will survive to affect any land areas.
I'll have an update by Sunday evening if this storm hangs together.
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