One more named storm for '07?

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 5:38 PM GMT on December 29, 2007

Share this Blog
3
+

OK, here we go one more time in '07! A non-tropical low pressure system dubbed Invest 95L, near 27N 38W, way out in the middle of the Atlantic Ocean, has cut off from the jet stream and is beginning to acquire tropical characteristics as it sits nearly stationary over waters of 22-23° C. Satellite imagery shows a curved band of heavy thunderstorms arcing 3/4 of the way around the large center of circulation. This morning's QuikSCAT pass showed winds of 30-35 mph in this band. Wind shear is about 20 knots over 95L, and this shear is expected to be 20-30 knots for the next two days, which may be low enough to allow the storm to develop into a subtropical storm before the year is out. The storm would be called Subtropical Storm Pablo, since the strongest winds are well removed from the center, and the system does not have a fully warm core.


Figure 1. Visible satellite image of Invest 95L in the middle of the Atlantic Ocean.

The four reliable computer models all predict little movement of 95L for the remainder of 2007, then a track to the west-southwest towards Puerto Rico and the northern Lesser Antilles Islands beginning on New Year's Day. Wind shear is forecast to rise to prohibitively high levels by January 1, so it is highly unlikely this storm will survive to affect any land areas.

I'll have an update by Sunday evening if this storm hangs together.

Jeff Masters

Reader Comments

Comments will take a few seconds to appear.

Post Your Comments

Please sign in to post comments.

or Join

Not only will you be able to leave comments on this blog, but you'll also have the ability to upload and share your photos in our Wunder Photos section.

Display: 0, 50, 100, 200 Sort: Newest First - Order Posted

Viewing: 341 - 291

Page: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7Blog Index

341. HadesGodWyvern (Mod)
12:17 AM GMT on December 31, 2007
Subtropical Depression...

The higher shear, increased baroclinicity along with the cooler sea surface temperatures suggest that the system has little chance at this point to become a named subtropical storm. The cyclone will begin to move southwest in the next couple of days as it weakens.
Member Since: May 24, 2006 Posts: 51 Comments: 45619
340. LakeShadow
12:12 AM GMT on December 31, 2007
evening...new blog is up.
Member Since: August 10, 2007 Posts: 3 Comments: 2134
339. HadesGodWyvern (Mod)
12:09 AM GMT on December 31, 2007
lol I must be used to reading MF advisories to slightly understand the context.

LINK

Seychelles advisories write the text in both english and french when Metro France releases a warning.
Member Since: May 24, 2006 Posts: 51 Comments: 45619
338. extreme236
12:08 AM GMT on December 31, 2007
ADDITIONALLY...A COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY TO THE NORTH
OF THE CYCLONE IS INTERACTING WITH THE CYCLONE...WHICH IS SHOWN
AS INCREASED BAROCLINICITY OF THE SYSTEM AS ANALYZED BY THE FSU
CYCLONE PHASE SPACE DIAGRAMS.


Are you sure about that NHC? these dvorak numbers just came in... couldbe an error though


T1.5/1.5 95L -- Atlantic Ocean
Member Since: August 2, 2007 Posts: 19 Comments: 19234
337. extreme236
12:07 AM GMT on December 31, 2007
THE CYCLONE WILL BEGIN MOVING TO THE
SOUTHWEST IN THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AS IT WEAKENS.


lol this is from the 7:05pm discussion. Well if its a cyclone then why isnt/wasnt it named :D

Well this may not get a name after all, but I look foreward to checking on it in the morning to see if there are any changes.
Member Since: August 2, 2007 Posts: 19 Comments: 19234
336. Tazmanian
12:04 AM GMT on December 31, 2007
i sent you some mail 456 with some new updates that this came in drop me a line this time when you look at your WU e mail its from the 3:00pm update
Member Since: May 21, 2006 Posts: 5091 Comments: 115241
335. extreme236
12:04 AM GMT on December 31, 2007
OPC sfc map also shows 95L no longer aassociated with the front.
Member Since: August 2, 2007 Posts: 19 Comments: 19234
334. extreme236
12:02 AM GMT on December 31, 2007
Link

the above link is useful in translating the Meteo-France Tropical cyclone advisories into English
Member Since: August 2, 2007 Posts: 19 Comments: 19234
333. extreme236
11:58 PM GMT on December 30, 2007
yea 91S looks good as well as 90S...92S looks a little better as well.
Member Since: August 2, 2007 Posts: 19 Comments: 19234
332. Cavin Rawlins
11:58 PM GMT on December 30, 2007
91S also has a nice curve band..BBL

Member Since: July 24, 2005 Posts: 407 Comments: 19076
331. extreme236
11:57 PM GMT on December 30, 2007
TC Melanie isnt looking so good right now...should continue to weaken.
Member Since: August 2, 2007 Posts: 19 Comments: 19234
330. sydneyaust1
11:53 PM GMT on December 30, 2007
90S East of Darwin plus Intense East Coast Low generating 100 kph winds and swell that has closed all beaches on the Mid East Coast

329. extreme236
11:46 PM GMT on December 30, 2007
yea, 90S looks rather well organized for being overland...JTWC apparently thinks this thing has a chance. Should see our first Northern Territory system this year.
Member Since: August 2, 2007 Posts: 19 Comments: 19234
328. extreme236
11:44 PM GMT on December 30, 2007
Thx W456...I like to be 100% correct lol...well W456 wouldnt it be something if this thing became Arthur? lol
Member Since: August 2, 2007 Posts: 19 Comments: 19234
327. sydneyaust1
11:42 PM GMT on December 30, 2007
Invest 90S seems to be drifting East toward the Gulf of Carpentaria - it would likely rapidly organise/intensify once it reaches these extremely warm waters
326. Cavin Rawlins
11:38 PM GMT on December 30, 2007
Extreme, ur 100% correct


There is no longer a frontal boundary...its now decayed into a surface trof.
Member Since: July 24, 2005 Posts: 407 Comments: 19076
325. extreme236
11:30 PM GMT on December 30, 2007
Satellite imagery seems to suggest the frontal boundary weakening, and 95L seperating. Convection has redeveloped north of the center and overall the system appears better organized. Its a wild card system thats for sure.
Member Since: August 2, 2007 Posts: 19 Comments: 19234
324. Trouper415
11:24 PM GMT on December 30, 2007
Hello all.

Anyone have a forecast or could direct me/leave a link for central or northern california from now until day 7?

Thanks, looks like we have a lot of weather coming in and want to check it out.

Thanks
Patrick
Member Since: September 22, 2005 Posts: 5 Comments: 637
323. extreme236
11:02 PM GMT on December 30, 2007
95L looks to be making a bit of a comeback
Member Since: August 2, 2007 Posts: 19 Comments: 19234
322. Tazmanian
10:27 PM GMT on December 30, 2007
ok
Member Since: May 21, 2006 Posts: 5091 Comments: 115241
321. Cavin Rawlins
10:21 PM GMT on December 30, 2007
taz i already read it.
Member Since: July 24, 2005 Posts: 407 Comments: 19076
320. Cavin Rawlins
10:20 PM GMT on December 30, 2007
Daytime heating dissipates cloud over the Land.

The moist cool marine layer is full of clouds. Notice what happens to the wind flow as it hits the little island (arrow)

Member Since: July 24, 2005 Posts: 407 Comments: 19076
319. Tazmanian
10:19 PM GMT on December 30, 2007
456 i sent you some WU e mail
Member Since: May 21, 2006 Posts: 5091 Comments: 115241
318. JLPR
10:18 PM GMT on December 30, 2007
thanks CatastrophicDL you got some nice pictures yourself =)
Member Since: September 4, 2007 Posts: 36 Comments: 5223
317. extreme236
10:13 PM GMT on December 30, 2007
BBL
Member Since: August 2, 2007 Posts: 19 Comments: 19234
316. extreme236
10:12 PM GMT on December 30, 2007
Lol just got done reading one of Dr. M's blog entries from 2006 for TS Alberto...wow the blog was REALLY arguementative. "Alberto's dead there is no chance for it!..."TD 1 wont become Alberto its dissapating now!

It was pretty funny. Makes people really think about how things can change. Reminds me of 99L, which looked terrible but yet became Gabby. Hopefully people will know better for next year to be a bit more optimistic :D
Member Since: August 2, 2007 Posts: 19 Comments: 19234
315. CatastrophicDL
10:11 PM GMT on December 30, 2007
JLPR, nice pictures! I uploaded some new ones too and would love some ratings!

95L seems to be struggling a little bit... elongated circulation?
Member Since: September 3, 2007 Posts: 3 Comments: 1519
314. JLPR
10:02 PM GMT on December 30, 2007
Hey everyone i invite you all to see my wunderphotos I uploaded 3 new ones today and I have others from before so come by and rate them it will be apreciated =D
Member Since: September 4, 2007 Posts: 36 Comments: 5223
313. Cavin Rawlins
9:58 PM GMT on December 30, 2007
Tropics 101

Positive Feedback Loop:

Air rises

Air condenses

Releases heat of condensation

Warms a column of air

Warm air rises

Isobars kink downwards (low pressure)

Pressure gradient induces greater inflow

air inflow converges and rises

air condenses...and so on
Member Since: July 24, 2005 Posts: 407 Comments: 19076
312. sporteguy03
9:31 PM GMT on December 30, 2007
Wow Dr.Master's thank you for the update the last of 07
Member Since: July 7, 2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 5351
311. HadesGodWyvern (Mod)
9:21 PM GMT on December 30, 2007
Mesoscale Discussion for Southeastern Georgia
Member Since: May 24, 2006 Posts: 51 Comments: 45619
310. GeoffreyWPB
9:10 PM GMT on December 30, 2007
Great for them. I hope they get a helluva lot more.
Member Since: September 10, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 11275
308. HadesGodWyvern (Mod)
8:53 PM GMT on December 30, 2007
you're welcome
Member Since: May 24, 2006 Posts: 51 Comments: 45619
307. Tazmanian
8:56 PM GMT on December 30, 2007
they are forcasting 10ft may be more of snow fall for the mts
Member Since: May 21, 2006 Posts: 5091 Comments: 115241
306. GeoffreyWPB
8:54 PM GMT on December 30, 2007
Historic proportions...Wow...
Member Since: September 10, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 11275
305. GeoffreyWPB
8:53 PM GMT on December 30, 2007
Thanks Hades.....Gonna be a chilly one for natives down here. Can't wait!
Member Since: September 10, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 11275
304. Tazmanian
8:53 PM GMT on December 30, 2007
look at this

000
NOUS45 KREV 301909
PNSREV

PUBLIC INFORMATION STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RENO NV
1100 AM PST SUN DEC 30 2007

A SNOWSTORM OF POTENTIALLY HISTORIC PROPORTIONS WILL AFFECT THE
SIERRA NEVADA DURING THE UPCOMING WEEKEND. SNOWFALL TOTALS WITH THIS
SNOWSTORM COULD RIVAL SNOWFALL AMOUNTS THAT WERE SEEN IN SOME OF THE
MOST DEVASTATING SNOWSTORMS OF THE PAST 50 YEARS.

RESEARCH DONE ON HEAVY SNOWFALL IN THE SIERRA HAS IDENTIFIED THE
MOST SIGNIFICANT SNOWSTORMS TO AFFECT THE RANGE. LISTED BELOW ARE
THE TOP FIFTEEN SNOWSTORMS THAT DEPOSITED THE LARGEST SNOWFALL
AMOUNTS ON THE ENTIRE SIERRA DURING THE PAST HALF CENTURY. SNOWFALL
WITH THIS WEEKEND`S SNOWSTORM COULD EQUAL AMOUNTS SEEN AMONG THE TOP
FIVE ALL-TIME SIERRA SNOWSTORMS.

...................................................................

GREATEST SIERRA SNOWSTORMS (1949-50 THROUGH 2004-2005) WITH STORM
TOTAL SNOWFALL AMOUNTS (IN.) AT VARIOUS LOCATIONS


CAN - CANYON DAM (PLUMAS COUNTY)
BOC - BOCA (NEVADA COUNTY)
CSS - CENTRAL SIERRA SNOW LAB (NEVADA-PLACER COUNTY)
TAH - TAHOE CITY (PLACER COUNTY)
GRG - GRANT GROVE (TULARE COUNTY)


CAN BOC CSS TAH GRG
1. JAN. 10-17, 1952 108.0 68.0 141.0 149.0 68.0
2. MAR. 28-APR. 1, 1982 26.0 47.0 125.5 59.0 63.0
3. MAR. 29-APR. 4, 1958 46.5 48.0 MM 98.5 69.0
4. DEC. 28, 1992-JAN. 2, 1993 74.0 47.0 76.6 57.5 MM
5. MAR. 21-24, 1995 32.0 26.0 100.6 74.0 59.0

6. MAR. 10-14, 1967 60.0 59.0 74.8 92.0 38.5
7. JAN. 31-FEB. 4, 1975 62.0 38.0 65.0 42.0 25.0
8. DEC. 27-31, 1964 46.0 42.0 87.2 77.0 26.0
9. FEB. 23-26, 1969 35.0 28.0 74.0 37.0 63.0
10. JAN. 27-30, 1981 24.0 24.0 72.0 40.0 48.0

11. DEC. 21-23, 1996 23.0 65.0 53.6 73.0 25.0
12. DEC. 29, 2004-JAN. 2, 2005 48.0 49.5 89.7 64.0 MM
13. FEB. 9-12, 1959 43.0 31.0 MM 43.0 64.0
14. FEB. 16-18, 1990 30.0 49.0 73.0 46.0 24.0
15. JAN. 20-23, 1997 34.0 18.0 73.4 44.0 35.0


MM - MISSING DATA

$$
Member Since: May 21, 2006 Posts: 5091 Comments: 115241
303. HadesGodWyvern (Mod)
8:50 PM GMT on December 30, 2007
60F?

45-50F wind chill.. somewhere around there.
Member Since: May 24, 2006 Posts: 51 Comments: 45619
302. extreme236
8:48 PM GMT on December 30, 2007
IDK if its just me, but it looks like 95L is seperating from the front now...maybe im wrong.
Member Since: August 2, 2007 Posts: 19 Comments: 19234
301. GeoffreyWPB
8:46 PM GMT on December 30, 2007
Afternoon all! Just wondering...the high here in West Palm on Wednesday is forcast to be @ 60 with winds 20-25 mph. What would that make the wind chill factor? Thanks.
Member Since: September 10, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 11275
300. Tazmanian
8:42 PM GMT on December 30, 2007
WWUS86 KSTO 302011
SPSSTO

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SACRAMENTO CA
1211 PM PST SUN DEC 30 2007

CAZ013>019-063-064-066>069-311800-
SHASTA LAKE AREA / NORTHERN SHASTA COUNTY-
BURNEY BASIN / EASTERN SHASTA COUNTY-NORTHERN SACRAMENTO VALLEY-
CENTRAL SACRAMENTO VALLEY-SOUTHERN SACRAMENTO VALLEY-
CARQUINEZ STRAIT AND DELTA-NORTHERN SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY-
MOUNTAINS SOUTHWESTERN SHASTA COUNTY TO NORTHERN LAKE COUNTY-
CLEAR LAKE/SOUTHERN LAKE COUNTY-
NORTHEAST FOOTHILLS/SACRAMENTO VALLEY-MOTHERLODE-
WESTERN PLUMAS COUNTY/LASSEN PARK-
WEST SLOPE NORTHERN SIERRA NEVADA-
1211 PM PST SUN DEC 30 2007

...A PROLONGED PERIOD OF STORMY WEATHER IS ON THE WAY BY THE END
OF THE WEEK...

A POWERFUL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE GULF OF ALASKA WILL SEND A
SERIES OF STORMS INTO CALIFORNIA BY THE END OF THE WEEK. A
PROLONGED PERIOD OF HEAVY RAIN IN THE INTERIOR VALLEY...AND HEAVY
SNOW IN THE MOUNTAINS IS EXPECTED. STORMS WILL BEGIN TO AFFECT THE
REGION LATE WEDNESDAY OR THURSDAY...AND CONTINUE INTO NEXT
WEEKEND.

THESE STORMS WILL DROP SEVERAL INCHES OF RAIN OVER THE CENTRAL
VALLEY...AND HEAVY SNOW OVER THE MOUNTAINS. AROUND 10 FEET OF SNOW
MAY FALL
OVER THE HIGHEST MOUNTAIN PASSES BY THE END OF NEXT
WEEKEND.

VERY STRONG WINDS ARE ALSO EXPECTED AT TIMES IN THE CENTRAL
VALLEY AND MOUNTAINS LATER THIS WEEK. WEATHER FORECAST CHARTS
INDICATE THE POTENTIAL FOR EXTREMELY STRONG WINDS...BUT NOT QUITE
ON THE MAGNITUDE OF DECEMBER 12, 1995...WHEN WIND GUSTS FROM 60
TO OVER 80 MPH STRUCK NORTHERN CALIFORNIA...INCLUDING PORTIONS OF
THE SACRAMENTO VALLEY. THE STRONG WINDS RESULTED IN NUMEROUS POWER
OUTAGES THROUGHOUT NORTHERN CALIFORNIA.
DANGEROUS WINDS ARE LIKELY TO CAUSE BLIZZARD CONDITIONS OVER THE
SIERRA NEVADA. TRAVEL WILL BECOME VERY DANGEROUS IN THE MOUNTAINS...
IF NOT IMPOSSIBLE TOWARD THE END OF THE WEEK.



i may not have power by time thursday night comes a round
Member Since: May 21, 2006 Posts: 5091 Comments: 115241
299. aquak9
8:41 PM GMT on December 30, 2007
Area further to the southwest, MRV at 3.35 is weak, but this is at the edge of the radar.

Link
Member Since: August 13, 2005 Posts: 168 Comments: 26066
298. aquak9
8:38 PM GMT on December 30, 2007
MRV at 0.50 more definite than it was 5 minutes ago....hmmm...

Link
Member Since: August 13, 2005 Posts: 168 Comments: 26066
297. aquak9
8:36 PM GMT on December 30, 2007
MRV at 3.35 very clear

Link
Member Since: August 13, 2005 Posts: 168 Comments: 26066
296. aquak9
8:34 PM GMT on December 30, 2007
MRV at 3.35 shows some circulation there, barely visible at 0.50...VIL not over thirty but best to err on the side of caution, 456.
Member Since: August 13, 2005 Posts: 168 Comments: 26066
295. Cavin Rawlins
8:32 PM GMT on December 30, 2007
Tornado Warnings in SE Georgia

Member Since: July 24, 2005 Posts: 407 Comments: 19076
294. hondaguy
8:22 PM GMT on December 30, 2007
Did anyone happen to catch the storms that hit here in south Louisiana last night!!?!?

The lightening was very frequent and there were reports of dime sized hail pretty much throughout the region. I live around 30 miles from downtown Baton Rouge, and it stormed everywhere in between.

The electricity here went out once. I'd say that there were areas that recieved 1-2 inches of rain in short periods of time.

Check out my blog for a more detailed description.

Aside from that, it's pretty impressive that we have I95 on our hands. It'll be interesting to see if it gets named or not.

Good afternoon everyone!
293. HadesGodWyvern (Mod)
7:45 PM GMT on December 30, 2007
Special Feature 14:05 EDT 30December
========================================

Surface low pressure [1008 mb] is centered over the eastern atlantic about 900 miles south-southwest of the Azores. Satellite imagery indicates that the system is now interacting with a cold front to its north and showers and thunderstorm activity has become less organized than yesterday, However this system continues to produce Gale-Force Winds mainly to the north and slightly to the south of the center and still has potential of becoming a subtropical storm later today or tomorrow as it moves slowly during the next couple of days.

Most of the convection is to the north of the low center from 29-32N between 31-36W with a line of showers and possible isolated thunderstorms from 28N 34W to 28N 34W.
Member Since: May 24, 2006 Posts: 51 Comments: 45619
292. seflagamma
7:22 PM GMT on December 30, 2007
Thanks for the information on 95!


WHAT NO WAY!!! we are NOT allowed to have an above average hurricane season here in SE florida..... my daughter has a wedding party here on July 26th and there better not be a hurricane to ruin this affair!

that was my dread when they picked that date early last summer!
Member Since: August 29, 2005 Posts: 299 Comments: 40917
291. HadesGodWyvern (Mod)
7:23 PM GMT on December 30, 2007
Invest 91S Log from WIKIPEDIA website


91S/06R.INVEST

91S.INVEST first appeared 2007-12-29, 0900z @ 20.1ºS 42.3ºE.
POOR from ABIO10 2007-12-29, 1800z @ 19.7ºS 42.6ºE.
Zone Perturbée 06R 2007-2008 from RSMC 2007-12-30, 1200z @ 18.4ºS 41.4ºE.
FAIR from ABIO10 2007-12-30, 1600z @ 18.3ºS 41.6ºE.
GOOD/TCFA from ABIO10 2007-12-30, 1800z @ 18.3ºS 41.6ºE.

----
When Seychelles upgrades this to a tropical storm the designated name will be Elnus.
Member Since: May 24, 2006 Posts: 51 Comments: 45619

Viewing: 341 - 291

Page: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7Blog Index

Top of Page

About

Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

Local Weather

Overcast
66 °F
Overcast