Olga: deadliest December tropical storm ever; Northeast U.S. braces for storms

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 4:05 PM GMT on December 13, 2007

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Tropical Storm Olga is gone, destroyed by high wind shear and dry air. The storm, only the fourth December tropical storm on record to hit land, is also the deadliest December tropical cyclone on record. At least 22 people have died due to flooding in its wake. One man was killed on Puerto Rico in a mudslide, two people died on Haiti due to flash floods, and at least 19 people died in the Dominican Republic. The only other December killer storm on record was Tropical Storm Odette, a 65-mph tropical storm that killed eight people in the Dominican Republic on December 7, 2003.

Most of the deaths in the Dominican Republic occurred in its second largest city, Santiago, when water was released from the Taveras dam upstream of the city in order to keep the dam from failing. Questions are being raised about why evacuations orders given several hours before the water release were not heeded, according the local Dominican Today newspaper. The tourist areas of the Dominican Republic were largely unaffected by Olga's rains, which were concentrated in regions of the northern part of the country.


Figure 1. Water is released from the Taveras dam during Tropical Storm Noel in late October 2007. Image credit: Wunderphotographer DRWeather.

Double whammy of winter storms for the Northeast U.S.
The Northeast U.S. is expected to receive a double helping of severe winter weather over the next few days. Today, a quick but intense winter storm is expected to dump 6-12 inches of snow across northern Connecticut, northern Rhode Island, and much of Massachusetts. A full-fledged 'Noreaster is expected Sunday, bringing heavy snow amounts of 1-2 feet and significant ice accumulations to inland regions of Pennsylvania, New York, Massachusetts, New Hampshire, Vermont, and Maine. Rain appears to be the most likely type of precipitation at locations nearer the coast, such as Philadelphia, New York City, and Boston. It is too early to be confident of this forecast, since minor changes in the storm's track will greatly influence the type of precipitation. Minor coastal flooding due to strong northeast winds is expected along the coast from New York City to Maine on Sunday.

Jeff Masters

Tropical storm Olga (Juancho)
Tropical storm Olga swept over Puerto Rico Monday night with 60 mph winds, leaving behind waves 12-16 feet
Tropical storm Olga

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585. KEEPEROFTHEGATE (Mod)
4:42 PM GMT on December 14, 2007
stand still and witness whats about to transform primary low will bomb backside appl. in 24 hrs follow by secondary low (ogla) trackin w nw n over fla panhadle to atlata ga. then ne ward bombing out an absorbing the primary low to its nw an establishing one main low pressure area imo THIS IS A MAJOR SIGNIFICANT EVENT.
Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 169 Comments: 53296
584. StormJunkie
3:25 PM GMT on December 14, 2007
Dr M has a new blog up
Member Since: August 17, 2005 Posts: 26 Comments: 15644
583. StormJunkie
3:24 PM GMT on December 14, 2007
Morning all :~)

Good to see ya bone, you have a link to the intro page to those MOS model graphics?
Member Since: August 17, 2005 Posts: 26 Comments: 15644
582. Patrap
3:23 PM GMT on December 14, 2007
Thats One Booming Low N'oreaster a coming...Link
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 421 Comments: 127559
581. seflagamma
3:22 PM GMT on December 14, 2007
interesting...
Member Since: August 29, 2005 Posts: 297 Comments: 40882
580. Patrap
3:20 PM GMT on December 14, 2007
Olga has reached its most western point. Now the Lifting will begin..WV LoopLink
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 421 Comments: 127559
579. Bonedog
3:15 PM GMT on December 14, 2007
Gotcha Storm.

This will be a VERY complex system. I think thats why its been so hard to forcast.

Yes the models had some sort of system developing even at the 340hr mark. But Olga through a fly into the ointment and now the models are having a hard time with it.

Not unusal though, bet alot of the algorithms don't factor tropical systems into the mix after Nov. 30
Member Since: July 14, 2005 Posts: 14 Comments: 7418
578. cchsweatherman
3:15 PM GMT on December 14, 2007
I just started to notice that Storm. Nice pick-up there. It almost looks like it may be going slightly south of due west.
Member Since: April 14, 2007 Posts: 8 Comments: 5163
576. Bonedog
3:12 PM GMT on December 14, 2007
they will be going in off the Carolinas

Member Since: July 14, 2005 Posts: 14 Comments: 7418
575. Patrap
3:11 PM GMT on December 14, 2007
North of Fla showers to Kink in front by the Carolinas...Storm to form and Invest sonde drops are to be done. Teal 70 is the actual Flight Call Sign.Link
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 421 Comments: 127559
574. Bonedog
3:10 PM GMT on December 14, 2007
CCH basically they will be doing a flight into the Nor'Easter this weekend

Will make the forcast models ALOT more accurate
Member Since: July 14, 2005 Posts: 14 Comments: 7418
573. Patrap
3:06 PM GMT on December 14, 2007
Invest Flight into Cold Core Low to Form with Front,,in Atlantic
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 421 Comments: 127559
572. Bonedog
3:05 PM GMT on December 14, 2007
the GFS (MAV) MOS isnt any better



12Z 16th


00Z 17th

basically a bad situation for the NE
Member Since: July 14, 2005 Posts: 14 Comments: 7418
571. weathermanwannabe
3:04 PM GMT on December 14, 2007
So we are basically saying a good chance of some pretty strong t-storms/gusty winds for parts of the SE/Eastern US over the weekend as the warm and cold fronts "collide" this weekend?......
Member Since: August 8, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 8798
570. cchsweatherman
3:04 PM GMT on December 14, 2007
What is this all about from the NHC Aircraft Plan?
000
NOUS42 KNHC 141500
WEATHER RECONNAISSANCE FLIGHTS
CARCAH, TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER, MIAMI, FL.
1000 AM EST FRI 14 DEC 2007
SUBJECT: WINTER STORM PLAN OF THE DAY (WSPOD)
VALID 15/1100Z TO 16/1100Z DEC 2007
WSPOD NUMBER.....07-0143

I. ATLANTIC REQUIREMENTS
1. FLIGHT 0NE -- TEAL 70
A. A62/ TROUT(30.4N 77.0W) / 16/0000Z
B. AFXXX 03WSA TRACK62
C. 15/1615Z
D. 6 DROPS AS PUBLISHED PLUS LACKS EQUAL 7
E. 30,000 FT/ 16/0100Z
2. SUCCEEDING DAY OUTLOOK.....NEGATIVE.
JWP
Member Since: April 14, 2007 Posts: 8 Comments: 5163
569. Bonedog
3:03 PM GMT on December 14, 2007
Storm also I was thinking.. yesterday when the NAM initialized Olga in the wrong place, could it have been seeing its energy not its circulation? Being the storm was sheared NE would explain the NAM. And now today showing the split Low with the southern energy off the Carolinas would fall in line with where Olga's energy should be in that time frame.
Member Since: July 14, 2005 Posts: 14 Comments: 7418
567. HurricaneGeek
3:00 PM GMT on December 14, 2007
Last Winter was warm here, I live in West Palm Beach.
I remember New Years Time was mid 80's°. I didn't like it.
Member Since: May 10, 2007 Posts: 110 Comments: 7039
566. weathermanwannabe
2:59 PM GMT on December 14, 2007
StormW 8:51 AM CST on December 14, 2007
555. Bonedog 9:49 AM EST on December 14, 2007
Thats what I see also Storm.

The only diffrence is some have it as a dual Low system while others keep it as a single Low.
As I said in my forcast this morning appears to be a warm sector event for the I-95 corridor.

Roger that!
I'm kinda inclined to think it may be a dual...think the secondary further SE may be due to the energy from Olga's remnants, then the two merge.


Yes........Both of you are correct; from the Tallahassee NWS discussion this morning:

REMNANTS OF THE INITIAL FRONT (NOTED ABOVE) WILL LARGELY WASH OUT TODAY SANDWICHED BETWEEN TROPICAL MOISTURE APPROACHING FROM NWWD
MOVING INVERTED TROUGH ASSOCD WITH TS OLGA AND THE NEXT STORM SYSTEM DEVELOPING OVER CENTRAL CONUS. UPPER TROUGH WILL HELP FORM NEXT
WEATHER MAKER FOR LOCAL AREA SLATED FOR SATURDAY INTO EARLY SUNDAY. INITIAL LOW DEVELOPS OVER THE LOWER MS VALLEY EARLY SATURDAY AND OCCLUDES AS IT LIFTS NEWD INTO THE OH VALLEY SATURDAY NIGHT. THIS
LOW WILL MERGE WITH ANOTHER LOW FORECAST TO DEVELOP NEAR THE NC COAST SATURDAY NIGHT...AND THEN RAPIDLY DEEPEN AS IT LIFTS NWD ALONG
COAST TO CAPE COD AREA OVERNIGHT SUN. ALL THIS WILL PUT THE CWA IN THE WARM SECTOR ON SATURDAY AND ASSOCD COLD FRONT WILL BE DRAGGED ACROSS CWA SATURDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY SUNDAY.


Member Since: August 8, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 8798
565. seflagamma
2:58 PM GMT on December 14, 2007
LOL, yes, below 60 down here and we are wrapped up in our sweaters and jackets and can even wear the leather we can only wear a few times a winter! and boots LOL...

I do remember a Christmas Day in Mid 90's that we got a real cold front.. day was very windy and cold..we were having an Christmas Day Open House and no one could use the outside patio which is like an extension of our living room. and usually winter time is the nicest time to be out there! LOL We do get these cold snaps every now and then... but I haven't had to "bring in the potted plants" in years... and haven't "watered the plants & ground" late at night to protect them in several years now...
Member Since: August 29, 2005 Posts: 297 Comments: 40882
564. Bonedog
2:56 PM GMT on December 14, 2007
Storm have you seen the GFSX MOS graphic?

not a good scenario



Thats for 12z on the 16th

then it does this for Monday 00Z


not good at all
Member Since: July 14, 2005 Posts: 14 Comments: 7418
563. Patrap
2:56 PM GMT on December 14, 2007
Olga's decapitating Sw shear is a coming fast..Link
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 421 Comments: 127559
561. ShenValleyFlyFish
2:52 PM GMT on December 14, 2007
Orca

If my chicken bones and voodoo doll are working you aren't going to believe the weather in Caned 'coon.
Member Since: September 9, 2007 Posts: 36 Comments: 4687
559. HurricaneGeek
2:52 PM GMT on December 14, 2007
CCHSWEATHERMAN, Sorry to hear your family doesn't give you the respect you deserve. Well, because you DO deserve it. Also, standing up to critisizem, (or however you spell it) makes you a stronger person not only in the world of weather, but in life, too. Now, I'm not saying that you say you're right when you're not, and I'm sure you don't, but keep doing what your're doing and hopefully someday we'll all see you on TV. :) (if thats what you wated, I froegot.) :-)
Member Since: May 10, 2007 Posts: 110 Comments: 7039
558. Bonedog
2:50 PM GMT on December 14, 2007
yep. when florida goes below 60 its officially winter :)
Member Since: July 14, 2005 Posts: 14 Comments: 7418
557. IKE
2:50 PM GMT on December 14, 2007
weathermanwannabe 8:47 AM CST on December 14, 2007
Morning Ike; I wanted to try and catch the meteor shower last evening (here in Bonifay) but we got "fogged out".....Guess the same in your parts? (man it was thick driving to work this morning/like pea soup on I-10)..........


It's been terrible all week. I'm bug-eyed from driving in it!
Member Since: June 9, 2005 Posts: 23 Comments: 37858
556. Orcasystems
2:50 PM GMT on December 14, 2007
550. StormW 2:45 PM GMT on December 14, 2007
Hey Bone,
Looking at the models, it would appear they are fairly clustered...most bring the center of the Nor'easter over or near your area. I haven't finished yet, but the CMC brings it a little further west.
Action: | Ignore User


Storm, did I miss the link to your latest WX synopsis? or is it not posted yet?
Member Since: October 1, 2007 Posts: 81 Comments: 26511
555. Bonedog
2:49 PM GMT on December 14, 2007
Thats what I see also Storm.

The only diffrence is some have it as a dual Low system while others keep it as a single Low.

As I said in my forcast this morning appears to be a warm sector event for the I-95 corridor.
Member Since: July 14, 2005 Posts: 14 Comments: 7418
552. weathermanwannabe
2:47 PM GMT on December 14, 2007
Morning Ike; I wanted to try and catch the meteor shower last evening (here in Bonifay) but we got "fogged out".....Guess the same in your parts? (man it was thick driving to work this morning/like pea soup on I-10)..........
Member Since: August 8, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 8798
551. Bonedog
2:47 PM GMT on December 14, 2007
Looks like most of the country will be in winters grip. I see upper 30s lower 40s all the way to Lake O!!

Member Since: July 14, 2005 Posts: 14 Comments: 7418
549. Patrap
2:45 PM GMT on December 14, 2007
GOM IR Loop Link
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 421 Comments: 127559
548. seflagamma
2:45 PM GMT on December 14, 2007
thanks and by the way, please call me Gams or Gamma.. my handle is way too long!

yes, all the unsettled atmosphere we can get the better.

Hey that Cold front is going to bring our HIGHs down to the 70's Sun and Mon (that is now our low each night). LOL


and we are getting into low 50's Mon and Tue nights (actually early morning temps)
Member Since: August 29, 2005 Posts: 297 Comments: 40882
547. IKE
2:44 PM GMT on December 14, 2007
Panhandle....

"Monday Night
Clear. Lows 26 to 31."
Member Since: June 9, 2005 Posts: 23 Comments: 37858
546. weathermanwannabe
2:44 PM GMT on December 14, 2007
Yeah; I meant the Panhandle where I'm at, but, the rest of Florida will probably see some very nice temps over the nest few days........LOL
Member Since: August 8, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 8798
545. Bonedog
2:44 PM GMT on December 14, 2007
CCH no problem. I give credit where its due
Member Since: July 14, 2005 Posts: 14 Comments: 7418
544. HurricaneGeek
2:43 PM GMT on December 14, 2007
30's and 20's where??? maybe the panhandle, not here...we got 53 for the lowest forecast temp due to this cold front. LOL.
Member Since: May 10, 2007 Posts: 110 Comments: 7039
543. cchsweatherman
2:42 PM GMT on December 14, 2007
seflagamma, once the energy from Olga meets with the front, then we may receive more rain than we would get from Olga alone. We need Olga, no matter how little moisture there may be with it, to come here and meet the cold front since it will create very unstable dynamics in the atmosphere.
Member Since: April 14, 2007 Posts: 8 Comments: 5163
542. seflagamma
2:41 PM GMT on December 14, 2007
that's no good... if there is no water with it..then we don't want it! It can just go away if it is not going to bring rain! LOL
Member Since: August 29, 2005 Posts: 297 Comments: 40882
541. cchsweatherman
2:40 PM GMT on December 14, 2007
I will try and give you satellite updates with this system throughout the day and I have already begun to save some Rainbow images, so that later on, I can provide you all with a comparison at different times of the day.

Taking a look at the latest satellite, it looks like the convection has started to expand and deepen somewhat. The NHC better be watching this closely.

By the way, thank you all for the comments you have given me and the respect that I rarely get, even from my own family. It just makes me feel so much better about myself knowing that there are actually, caring and compassionate people out there.
Member Since: April 14, 2007 Posts: 8 Comments: 5163
540. weathermanwannabe
2:40 PM GMT on December 14, 2007
Hope all will have a safe and good weekend; unfortunately, for many of us in the SE (including northern Florida) the approaching front is going to bring us some significant rain and t-storms on Saturday and some pretty cool temps (lower 30's/upper 20's) going into early next week....Burrrrrrrrr, but, it is almost Christmas...........Yall Have a Great Day.....
Member Since: August 8, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 8798
539. Bonedog
2:40 PM GMT on December 14, 2007
yea. There have been a few storms this year that caused cleanups of spit coffee and I bet a few keyboards and monitors needed replacing.
Member Since: July 14, 2005 Posts: 14 Comments: 7418
538. Bonedog
2:35 PM GMT on December 14, 2007
LOL dont look for Olga on WV you wont see it

Member Since: July 14, 2005 Posts: 14 Comments: 7418
536. HurricaneGeek
2:35 PM GMT on December 14, 2007
lol, yeah CON-SIS-TENT. :)
Member Since: May 10, 2007 Posts: 110 Comments: 7039
535. seflagamma
2:35 PM GMT on December 14, 2007
very interesting developements!

May get some late year tropical rain from a system yet!
Member Since: August 29, 2005 Posts: 297 Comments: 40882

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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.