Olga falling apart; big 'Noreaster coming Sunday

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 3:47 PM GMT on December 12, 2007

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The hurricane season of 2007 is almost over (again!) Tropical Storm Olga's passage over the rough terrain of Hispaniola has considerably disrupted the circulation of the storm, and visible satellite loops show a poorly organized circulation with a few weak rain bands removed to the north and east of the center. Radar loops out of Gran Piedra, Cuba show disorganized patches of rain impacting eastern Cuba, western Haiti, and the southeastern Bahama Islands. Puerto Rico took the brunt of Olga's rains, with amounts exceeding eight inches common (Figure 1). Satellite estimates of rainfall over Hispaniola show maximum rainfall amounts of up to four inches thus far over the northern Dominican Republic and Haiti. Additional rains of 2-4 inches from Olga may cause localized flash flooding and mudslides, but Olga will cause nowhere near the chaos that the 10-25 inches of rain from Tropical Storm Noel did in late October.

Wind shear has increased to 30 knots over Olga, and water vapor satellite imagery shows that Olga is moving into some very dry air. These influences should destroy Olga by Thursday. The remnants of Olga may still bring heavy rains of 2-4 inches to the southeast Bahamas and eastern Cuba, and 1-2 inches to Jamaica and the Cayman Islands. The 00Z runs of the GFDL and HWRF computer models foresee that Olga will regenerate on Friday and threaten the north coast of Honduras on Sunday as a Category 1 hurricane, but this solution is not supported by the other models. Given Olga's current weak condition, it is unlikely there will be enough left of the storm on Friday to regenerate into anything.


Figure 1. Precipitation estimated from the Puerto Rico radar for Tropical Storm Olga.

Major 'Noreaster coming Sunday
All of the major computer models forecast that a major winter storm will track across the Ohio Valley on Saturday, then explode into a powerful 'Noreaster Sunday off the U.S. northeast coast. Heavy snow amounts of 1-2 feet and significant ice accumulations are possible in inland regions of the Northeast. Rain appears to be the most likely type of precipitation at locations nearer the coast, such as Philadelphia, New York City, and Boston. It is too early to be confident of this forecast, since minor changes in the storm's track will greatly influence the type of precipitation. Minor to moderate coastal flooding is possible along the coast from New York City to Maine on Sunday.

Ice storm in the Midwest
I haven't found the opportunity to say much about the remarkable ice storm that has paralyzed much of Oklahoma, Kansas, Missouri, and surrounding regions this week, as I've been busy talking about Olga and trying to keep up on the latest in climate change science at the American Geophysical Union Conference here in San Francisco. The wunderphotos posted by people to the web site have been truly astounding, chilling, and beautiful, and I thank all of you who posted photos.

I'll have a update Thursday morning.

Jeff Masters

Oklahoma Ice Storm (snowcracker)
Ice Storm Pictures from Owasso, Oklahoma
Oklahoma Ice Storm
storm damage (PhotoRoach)
My yard after losing over half of my tree during an icestorm.
storm damage

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849. weathermanwannabe
9:01 PM GMT on December 13, 2007
"I see we are still watching TD Olga and the big snow/ice storm!!!"
.....................Soon to become the "naked swirl formerly known as Olga"....
Member Since: August 8, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 9211
848. Cregnebaa
4:09 PM GMT on December 13, 2007
Sitting in the office with the remenats of Olga approaching, pretty over cast a little rain, wind speed ilght at 14mph, wind direction shifting from NE to N.

follow it here
Cayman

Member Since: October 19, 2005 Posts: 6 Comments: 323
847. cchsweatherman
4:09 PM GMT on December 13, 2007
NEW BLOG!!!
Member Since: April 14, 2007 Posts: 8 Comments: 5169
846. NEwxguy
4:04 PM GMT on December 13, 2007
woohoo,company closing at 2p.m. due to storm.
Member Since: September 6, 2007 Posts: 881 Comments: 15814
845. NEwxguy
4:04 PM GMT on December 13, 2007
844. Patrap 3:52 PM GMT on December 13, 2007
There used to be a Cookie Factory..in the West.
So obviously..we liked the West wind...best.

There used to be a Cookie Factory, in the West..and when the West wind blew..it felt as though, we ..were..blessed.

LOL,cookie sales must have jumped everytime west wind blew.
Member Since: September 6, 2007 Posts: 881 Comments: 15814
844. Patrap
3:52 PM GMT on December 13, 2007
There used to be a Cookie Factory..in the West.
So obviously..we liked the West wind...best.

There used to be a Cookie Factory, in the West..and when the West wind blew..it felt as though, we ..were..blessed.
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 426 Comments: 128630
843. 786
3:52 PM GMT on December 13, 2007
CaneWhisperer, nice to see a fellow resident of the rock, looking forward to x-mas day cause its starting to feel like groundhog day!!
Member Since: August 18, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 910
842. listenerVT
3:48 PM GMT on December 13, 2007
Time for some hot cocoa, Bonedog!
Member Since: July 11, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 5510
841. listenerVT
3:47 PM GMT on December 13, 2007
Here in the hometown of Wilson A. "Snowflake" Bentley,
skies are overcast, but the clouds are mid-to upper, not low,
the wind is light...and for once it's not snowing!
Give us an hour or two. LOL!
Member Since: July 11, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 5510
839. TheCaneWhisperer
3:45 PM GMT on December 13, 2007
Definitely no LLC.

There are no west winds to speak of in the cayman islands and pressures of 1012 to 1013.
838. Bonedog
3:43 PM GMT on December 13, 2007
just ran outside. sleet accumulating now on all surfaces. some big flakes starting to mix in.
Member Since: July 14, 2005 Posts: 14 Comments: 7418
837. Bonedog
3:42 PM GMT on December 13, 2007
exactly NE

ice pellets coming down hard now. Size is still growing.
Member Since: July 14, 2005 Posts: 14 Comments: 7418
836. keywestdingding
3:42 PM GMT on December 13, 2007
it seems that the ocean is alot warmer for this time of year. does anyone have any info on this situation? thanks
Member Since: March 6, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 91
835. NEwxguy
3:37 PM GMT on December 13, 2007
As always say,the best weather reporting is done out your own window.
Member Since: September 6, 2007 Posts: 881 Comments: 15814
834. sporteguy03
3:33 PM GMT on December 13, 2007
Wow what a snowy update Dr.Masters!
Member Since: July 7, 2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 5348
833. HurricaneGeek
3:30 PM GMT on December 13, 2007
This is how I think it goes: exOlga has a good MLC (mid level circ.) but no LLC. or it's open. One of the two. And the MLC needs to work its way down to the surface, but the Mid Level Shear is too high, and that map shows Low Level Shear wich is favorable. Again, that is what I think it all is, and I could be very wrong or very right. :)
Member Since: May 10, 2007 Posts: 110 Comments: 7039
832. weatherboyfsu
3:29 PM GMT on December 13, 2007
I know what it is.......I just want other opinions.....Thanks......
Member Since: July 17, 2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 1025
831. ncleclerc
3:29 PM GMT on December 13, 2007
StormW, thanks so much for your reply and the anwser put a big smile on my face. I really respect your input! Your da man!
Member Since: October 5, 2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 108
830. HurricaneGeek
3:28 PM GMT on December 13, 2007
weatherboyfsu, yeah, its in diff levels, i couldn't tell you why or wich ones, but thats the thing.
Member Since: May 10, 2007 Posts: 110 Comments: 7039
829. weatherboyfsu
3:25 PM GMT on December 13, 2007
So........so tell me whats wrong with this shear map from the Navy website.....Are we only looking at particular levels in the atmosphere????
Member Since: July 17, 2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 1025
828. weatherboyfsu
3:24 PM GMT on December 13, 2007
This is the 12 hour forecast


Member Since: July 17, 2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 1025
827. Bonedog
3:23 PM GMT on December 13, 2007
LOL dont feel bad NE my local says scattered clouds

Have ice pellets the size of BBs and ball bearings falling heavy.

WU better get onboard LOL
Member Since: July 14, 2005 Posts: 14 Comments: 7418
826. weatherboyfsu
3:21 PM GMT on December 13, 2007
That is the forecast in 72 hours.......Let me find the one for today
Member Since: July 17, 2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 1025
825. weatherboyfsu
3:19 PM GMT on December 13, 2007
This is from the Navy website.......
Member Since: July 17, 2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 1025
824. weatherboyfsu
3:18 PM GMT on December 13, 2007
Shear.......where

Member Since: July 17, 2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 1025
823. Bonedog
3:18 PM GMT on December 13, 2007


Nothing is fair in the NE except northern Maine.

LOL NE check your local sation? is it set for Maine LOL
Member Since: July 14, 2005 Posts: 14 Comments: 7418
822. Patrap
3:15 PM GMT on December 13, 2007
Plus ..is the NWS Office in your neighborhood? Conditions are relative..or,not everywhere within Ones view.
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 426 Comments: 128630
821. Patrap
3:14 PM GMT on December 13, 2007
Thats because they do Hourly Obs..not min to min. LOL
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 426 Comments: 128630
820. Patrap
3:14 PM GMT on December 13, 2007
GOES-12 WV loop Tropical Basin..Link
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 426 Comments: 128630
819. NEwxguy
3:13 PM GMT on December 13, 2007
lol,have to laugh my nws current conditions,say 24 deg and fair,I look out my window and its completely overcast.
Member Since: September 6, 2007 Posts: 881 Comments: 15814
818. MasterForecaster
3:12 PM GMT on December 13, 2007
is a big blob of convection headed towards south florida? can i expect a thunderstorm this afternoon?


thanks
817. weatherboyfsu
3:11 PM GMT on December 13, 2007
I was down just east of Marco Island when Wilma hit. I have 6 hours of video that Ive been editing but havent finished. A little piece is on StormJunkie.com if you want to go visit.
Member Since: July 17, 2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 1025
816. Bonedog
3:10 PM GMT on December 13, 2007
and the storm begins

sleet right now 10:09am

I am at work so its probably snow at my house
Member Since: July 14, 2005 Posts: 14 Comments: 7418
815. weatherboyfsu
3:09 PM GMT on December 13, 2007
Good morning,

The remnant low......Olga.......still looks impressive for a remnant low....The shear that has been talked about.......I see in some areas. Kind of hard to find being the heights of the showers are not that high. There is some areas showing evidence of shear and some not......Just off the northern cuba coast, those storms dont have much shear while east of Olga near Hispanola shows the shear. This is a unique situation and has been. Still some low topped convection firing around the center.
Experience tells me that as long as I see a circulation then there is still a chance of re-generation............
Member Since: July 17, 2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 1025
814. NEwxguy
3:07 PM GMT on December 13, 2007
Ok,I'm back had to clear up a few system problems
Member Since: September 6, 2007 Posts: 881 Comments: 15814
813. franck
3:06 PM GMT on December 13, 2007
cchs....looks more like extreme south FL some rain, but not much north of Miami.
Member Since: August 30, 2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 1150
812. cchsweatherman
3:05 PM GMT on December 13, 2007
I will continue to watch Olga's remnants for possible regeneration, but I have finally surrendered and believe that Olga now is dead as the LLC has collapsed. There still is a strong MLC, but that would need to work down to the surface, which looks like won't happen.
Member Since: April 14, 2007 Posts: 8 Comments: 5169
811. cchsweatherman
3:00 PM GMT on December 13, 2007
On the long-range radar from Miami, you can see the showers and thunderstorms left over from Olga coming into the picture and moving NEWD towards South Florida. Based upon my analysis and forecast (you can see my site for the local forecast), South Florida will be receiving some impressive rainfall totals nearing 5 inches by the late Sunday. I hope this rain reaches Lake Okeechobee since water restrictions are going to get much tighter starting today.
Member Since: April 14, 2007 Posts: 8 Comments: 5169
810. Bonedog
2:54 PM GMT on December 13, 2007
hug right now with the model split I would look at the NAM and the GFS. I just dont see the southern route that some are taking.

The reason I like the NAM is the double Low it developes. Parent Low heading tword the Lakes with a coastal Low developing off Delmarv heading south of LI the to the Cape.

GFS sort of hints at this but keeps the main vorticy as a single Low heading off the Virgina Capes and to the 40/70.

Member Since: July 14, 2005 Posts: 14 Comments: 7418
809. hugTheCoast
2:48 PM GMT on December 13, 2007
Thanks Bonedog. Any thoughts on what everyone here is leaning towards?
807. Bonedog
2:37 PM GMT on December 13, 2007
hug yes. If it goes south of the 40/70 mark the I-95 corridor is spared. west and its a heavy rain event. within 20 to 50 miles of the 40/70 mark would lead to the greast snowfall potential
Member Since: July 14, 2005 Posts: 14 Comments: 7418
806. hugTheCoast
2:35 PM GMT on December 13, 2007
The model split is fascinating. The NAM is wacky --- but is it possible? If you look at the HPC guidance on the NWS, it looks like zero snow in the Baltimore, Philly, NYC areas. Could this be with some of the solutions dragging it so far S and E?
805. cchsweatherman
2:34 PM GMT on December 13, 2007
JFV, I survived through Wilma. Since my house faces east and the storm came in from the west, I was able to stand underneath my front patio area and watch the incredible destruction that took place. Too bad my camcorder wasn't working, or I would have some incredible footage for you all to see from Wilma as it bared down on my town for 6 straight hours. Was a nightmanre to clean up, but I can't complain just watching what other more powerful storms have done. You know what, I may post a blog where I will scan some pics that I took after the storm.
Member Since: April 14, 2007 Posts: 8 Comments: 5169
804. Bonedog
2:28 PM GMT on December 13, 2007
no problem Storm.
Member Since: July 14, 2005 Posts: 14 Comments: 7418
802. seflagamma
2:25 PM GMT on December 13, 2007
Good morning everyone,

Broward County here...

about 75 degrees now.. everyday it is getting into low 80's... our next cool down will be Sun/Mon highs in 70's LOL

we have been getting some off and on showers.

I see we are still watching TD Olga and the big snow/ice storm!!!
Member Since: August 29, 2005 Posts: 299 Comments: 40916
800. ncleclerc
2:23 PM GMT on December 13, 2007
Good morning all, StormW do you think that in the area of Raleigh NC that we might get rain or just some showers. I am confused as one weather channel will say finally Rain and the other will say just a few showers. Thanks for your input!
Member Since: October 5, 2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 108

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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.