Olga pounds Puerto Rico; major 'Noreaster coming Sunday

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 3:19 PM GMT on December 11, 2007

Share this Blog
2
+

The hurricane season of 2007 is definitely not over! Subtropical Storm Olga is the 17th December named storm to develop in the Atlantic since record keeping began in 1851, and only the fourth December named storm to hit land (Figure 1). Seven of the 17 December storms have occurred since 1995. Eight of the December storms have been hurricanes, with a Category 2 hurricane in 1925 being the only December storm to hit the mainland U.S.


Figure 1. Tracks of all Atlantic named storms that have formed in December.

As seen on visible satellite loops, the heavy thunderstorm activity associated with Olga is displaced 100-200 miles to the north of the center. This is one of the hallmarks of a subtropical storm. The difference is not important, as the winds and rain are similar for both types of storms. Long range radar out of Puerto Rico clearly shows the circulation of Olga and some well-organized bands of rain. Rain is the major threat from Olga, and amounts of 3-6 inches have already fallen over northern Puerto Rico, causing flash flooding and mudslides. Heavier rain amounts of over eight inches have fallen on ocean areas to the north of Puerto Rico (Figure 2), and rainfall amounts of up to 10 inches may hit the regions of the Dominican Republic hard hit by Tropical Storm Noel just six week ago. Haiti is also at risk of heavy rains that might cause life-threatening flash floods and mud slides.


Figure 2. Latest precipitation estimate from the Puerto Rico radar.

Wind shear, which dropped to about 15-20 knots Monday evening, has increased to 20-30 knots today. This higher shear, combined with Olga's passage over the rough terrain of Hispaniola, should be enough to tear the storm apart. The remnants of Olga may still bring heavy rains of 2-4 inches to Jamaica and eastern Cuba Wednesday and Thursday. None of the computer models foresee that Olga will survive to become a tropical storm in the Western Caribbean. The Hurricane Hunters are not on call to fly Olga.

Major 'Noreaster coming Sunday
Both the GFS and ECMWF models are forecasting that a major winter storm will track across the Ohio Valley on Saturday, then explode into a powerful 'Noreaster on Sunday with a central pressure of 970-980 mb off the U.S. northeast coast. Heavy snow amounts of 1-2 feet and significant ice accumulations are possible in inland regions of the Northeast. Locations nearer the coast, such a Philadelphia, New York City, and Boston may mostly get rain, but it is too early to be confident of this forecast. Minor to moderate coastal flooding is possible along the coast from New York City to Maine on Sunday.

I'll have a update Wednesday morning.

Jeff Masters

Reader Comments

Comments will take a few seconds to appear.

Post Your Comments

Please sign in to post comments.

or Join

Not only will you be able to leave comments on this blog, but you'll also have the ability to upload and share your photos in our Wunder Photos section.

Display: 0, 50, 100, 200 Sort: Newest First - Order Posted

Viewing: 743 - 693

Page: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15Blog Index

743. LakeShadow
3:57 PM GMT on December 12, 2007
So the local mets here in B-lo were saying that this thing this weekend may track west a little and that will be our only shot at precip from the "bomb" as they call it...
But I'm also wondering if the system will be large enough to pull a cyclonic flow over the lakes to give us a shot of LES.
And I looked at the GFS (10 day-Unisys) and it showed POPS from the western side of the storm in its current track for my area on Sunday eve, but they say it will be a Sat. night storm. So what am I missing? When will it impact my area and how severely? And with this negative NAO...is it the least of my worries?? :o)
Member Since: August 10, 2007 Posts: 3 Comments: 2134
742. Bonedog
3:54 PM GMT on December 12, 2007
739. LakeShadow 10:51 AM EST on December 12, 2007
Oh, so there's another nor'easter forecasted for next weekend?




thats the 250hr GFS from 06Z. The 12Z isnt out that far yet.
Member Since: July 14, 2005 Posts: 14 Comments: 7418
741. cchsweatherman
3:53 PM GMT on December 12, 2007
NEW BLOG!!!
Member Since: April 14, 2007 Posts: 8 Comments: 5169
740. Patrap
3:52 PM GMT on December 12, 2007
Pacific View, GOES West Link
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 426 Comments: 128636
739. LakeShadow
3:51 PM GMT on December 12, 2007
Oh, so there's another nor'easter forecasted for next weekend?
Member Since: August 10, 2007 Posts: 3 Comments: 2134
738. Patrap
3:49 PM GMT on December 12, 2007
Terra December 12, 2007..coverage Link

Run at Olga..Link
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 426 Comments: 128636
737. Bonedog
3:48 PM GMT on December 12, 2007
Lake I dont belive the forcaster is talking about this wekends system but the next one down the pipe. There is a very potent Low heading for the Northwest. It could possibly make a run as a Clipper with a coastal low developing from it.

Sat nights storm is a reality, there isnt one model or office not discussing it to some extent. The energy is in the panhandle and expected to move towrds the Gulf Tomorrow and then lift to the coast friday into saturday.
Member Since: July 14, 2005 Posts: 14 Comments: 7418
736. Bonedog
3:45 PM GMT on December 12, 2007
I think what they were trying to get at is the NAO is being influenced by mechanisms not usually associated with it.

Not that its a false negative but a negative influenced by outside forces not usually associated with it.

Check my blog from Octber or November. I belive I have a blog that mentions me thoughts twords this winter storm season in relation to the NAO and AO
Member Since: July 14, 2005 Posts: 14 Comments: 7418
735. NEwxguy
3:42 PM GMT on December 12, 2007
Lake,Im already for Mother Nature,got the snowblower gased up,ice melt ready,its a Sunday,so don't have to be out on the road,can sit home and watch the Pats.
Member Since: September 6, 2007 Posts: 881 Comments: 15820
734. LakeShadow
3:42 PM GMT on December 12, 2007
THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR
A SIGNIFICANT NOR-EASTER LATE NEXT WEEKEND. IT SHOULD BE EMPHASIZED
HOWEVER THAT ONE OF THE MAIN PLAYERS INVOLVED IS STILL OVER THE
MIDDLE OF THE NORTH PACIFIC...AND THERE REMAINS A HIGH DEGREE OF
UNCERTAINTY WITH RESPECT TO TRACK AND AMPLITUDE OF THIS FEATURE...
OR EVEN IF THE FORECAST INTERACTIONS WHICH LEAD TO THE COASTAL LOW
WILL EVEN VERIFY.


And then there's this...Pacific feature...whats the dealio?
Member Since: August 10, 2007 Posts: 3 Comments: 2134
732. LakeShadow
3:38 PM GMT on December 12, 2007
Yeah, Bone, but it sounds like its a false negative by the way they word it...
Member Since: August 10, 2007 Posts: 3 Comments: 2134
731. Bonedog
3:36 PM GMT on December 12, 2007
Lake means alot more snow for us :)

same thing I was noticing back in October.
Member Since: July 14, 2005 Posts: 14 Comments: 7418
730. Patrap
3:33 PM GMT on December 12, 2007
Obituaries..LOL
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 426 Comments: 128636
729. NEwxguy
3:34 PM GMT on December 12, 2007
where else would you find Led Zeppelin and Spice girls in the same sentence.
Member Since: September 6, 2007 Posts: 881 Comments: 15820
728. LakeShadow
3:33 PM GMT on December 12, 2007
Sales of tea and coffee have dramatically shot up since it was revealed that Led Zeppelin enjoyed a caffeine infusion prior to taking the stage on Monday night. Said Chip N. Zee, CEO of PG Phoo Tea: ”We’ve never seen anything like it! With this kind of publicity we can finally put the menace of cocaine behind us when people realise that two gallons of caffeine will have you chewing your face off in no time at at all!”

yeah the brits are a funny bunch...
Member Since: August 10, 2007 Posts: 3 Comments: 2134
727. cchsweatherman
3:31 PM GMT on December 12, 2007
I have just done a full update on my site at the CCHS Weather Center.
Member Since: April 14, 2007 Posts: 8 Comments: 5169
726. Patrap
3:30 PM GMT on December 12, 2007
Truism..
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 426 Comments: 128636
725. LakeShadow
3:29 PM GMT on December 12, 2007
yeah I heard the food is void of spice..ironic, huh?
Member Since: August 10, 2007 Posts: 3 Comments: 2134
724. Patrap
3:28 PM GMT on December 12, 2007
The British a funny people.Ever been there? LOL

Its Quite the er, experience. Bring a Lunch though.
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 426 Comments: 128636
723. HadesGodWyvern (Mod)
3:28 PM GMT on December 12, 2007
Area of Disturbed Weather 04R

sub-RSMC Mauritius designates 96S.INVEST as Zone Perturbée 04.
Member Since: May 24, 2006 Posts: 51 Comments: 45574
722. LakeShadow
3:26 PM GMT on December 12, 2007
the band’s recently released and digitally re-mastered greatest hits album, ‘Mothership,’ has overtaken the Spice Girls to become the weeks number one selling record.

Really??? The Spice Girls are selling albums? Really?!?!?
Member Since: August 10, 2007 Posts: 3 Comments: 2134
721. Patrap
3:26 PM GMT on December 12, 2007
He always plays Keyboard on Kashmir.
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 426 Comments: 128636
720. Patrap
3:24 PM GMT on December 12, 2007
GIGWISE.com on the London Show..Link
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 426 Comments: 128636
719. LakeShadow
3:24 PM GMT on December 12, 2007
Cant be Zep without the Jones

from your keyboard to Gods ears....
Member Since: August 10, 2007 Posts: 3 Comments: 2134
715. LakeShadow
3:22 PM GMT on December 12, 2007
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE LONG TERM WILL BE POTENTIALLY VERY BUSY AS THE GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN
NOW FORECASTS THE NAO INDEX TO BECOME NEGATIVE. THIS SIGNAL MAY BE
RELATED TO RECENT MJO ACTIVITY AND OTHER TROPICAL FORCING MECHANISMS
WHICH ARE FORECAST TO FORCE THE NORTHERN HEMISPHERE INTO A SLOWER
MORE HIGHLY AMPLIFIED REGIME AND ALSO FORCE HIGH LATITUDE BLOCKING
FEATURES TO DEVELOP...THUS MANIFESTING THE NEGATIVE NAO SIGNAL.


Hey Bone..or anyone that can tell me...What does this mean?
Member Since: August 10, 2007 Posts: 3 Comments: 2134
713. weathers4me
3:18 PM GMT on December 12, 2007
storm: Thanks again for the synopsis on Olga. Do you feel that she (or the remnants) have a good chance at boosting the rain chance for W central FL this weekend? We really need the rain. I even have mature live oaks dying out here due to the lack of rain. Thanks
Member Since: May 24, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 118
712. Bonedog
3:15 PM GMT on December 12, 2007
Service Unavailable
The server is temporarily unable to service your request. Please try again later.
Reference #6.3f2142d8.1197472497.1c0d4f




geez even the NWS website is having issues. Whats up with the weather systems lately.

Time for them to get a new hampster

Member Since: July 14, 2005 Posts: 14 Comments: 7418
711. LakeShadow
3:13 PM GMT on December 12, 2007
wheres John Paul???
Member Since: August 10, 2007 Posts: 3 Comments: 2134
710. Patrap
3:13 PM GMT on December 12, 2007
Stairway to Heaven. Mon Night..London Link
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 426 Comments: 128636
709. Bonedog
3:11 PM GMT on December 12, 2007
welcome Storm
Member Since: July 14, 2005 Posts: 14 Comments: 7418
708. Patrap
3:11 PM GMT on December 12, 2007
A gift from across the Pond.Led Zeppelin LIVE Monday Night,"Kashmir"...Link
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 426 Comments: 128636
706. Patrap
3:09 PM GMT on December 12, 2007
I have a degree in Blogology, I keep me trade secrets close to my, er..vest
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 426 Comments: 128636
704. LakeShadow
3:06 PM GMT on December 12, 2007
LOL pat, where do you find this stuff!!!
Member Since: August 10, 2007 Posts: 3 Comments: 2134
703. Patrap
3:02 PM GMT on December 12, 2007
My real bkfst secret....Link
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 426 Comments: 128636
702. GBlet
3:01 PM GMT on December 12, 2007
YA THINK?
Member Since: September 13, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 435
701. LakeShadow
3:01 PM GMT on December 12, 2007
morning NE. you got some kind of bunkering down to do for the end of the week...
Member Since: August 10, 2007 Posts: 3 Comments: 2134
699. LakeShadow
2:59 PM GMT on December 12, 2007
. GBlet 2:51 PM GMT on December 12, 2007
I want to know what Pat sprinkles on his wheaties.


Government issued wheaties... extra ingredients...
Member Since: August 10, 2007 Posts: 3 Comments: 2134
698. Patrap
2:59 PM GMT on December 12, 2007
Breakfast this am...

Link
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 426 Comments: 128636
697. NEwxguy
2:58 PM GMT on December 12, 2007
Morning Lake
Member Since: September 6, 2007 Posts: 881 Comments: 15820
696. LakeShadow
2:53 PM GMT on December 12, 2007
uh. oh...looks like admin didnt like that pic.. A little too racy if you ask me! :o)
Member Since: August 10, 2007 Posts: 3 Comments: 2134
695. GBlet
2:51 PM GMT on December 12, 2007
I want to know what Pat sprinkles on his wheaties.
Member Since: September 13, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 435
694. Patrap
2:55 PM GMT on December 12, 2007
You Know,..there will be a Quiz on Olga come Friday. So,Im suggesting those of you who must pass it,get busy on the review,..

Capice their newbie?

Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 426 Comments: 128636
693. NEwxguy
2:52 PM GMT on December 12, 2007
blind duck in Bangkok????pat sometimes you have me on the floor laughing so hard.
Member Since: September 6, 2007 Posts: 881 Comments: 15820

Viewing: 743 - 693

Page: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15Blog Index

Top of Page

About

Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.