Hurricane season not over?

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 4:09 AM GMT on December 10, 2007

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Is the hurricane season of 2007 over? An area of disturbed weather, designated Invest 94 by NHC, has developed about 400 miles east of Puerto Rico, and is moving west at 15-20 mph. The disturbance shows some modest organization on satellite imagery (Figure 1), with decent heavy thunderstorm activity, and an upper-level outflow channel to the north. Water temperatures in the region are about 26° C, which is right at the limit of what can support formation of a tropical storm. This evening's 8:12 pm EST QuikSCAT pass showed top winds of 30-35 mph, but no evidence of a surface circulation, and not much of a wind shift at the surface. Wind shear is 20-25 knots over the disturbance, which is too high to allow anything but slow development.


Figure 1. Latest satellite image of Invest 94.

Here's what NHC had to say about the disturbance:

1030 PM EST Sun Dec 9 2007

The area of disturbed weather associated with a broad area of low pressure centered about 425 miles east of Puerto Rico remains fairly well-organized...but satellite images and surface observations suggest that this system has not developed a closed circulation yet. This system is moving westward at 15 to 20 mph and is producing heavy squalls with gale force winds to the north of the shower activity. Environmental conditions appear to be favorable for some development and a tropical or subtropical storm could form during the next 24 hours. Interests in the northern Leeward Islands...the Virgin Islands...Puerto Rico...Hispaniola...and the eastern Bahamas should monitor the progress of this system.

None of the models develop the disturbance, but they do indicate that wind shear will remain near 20 knots through Monday night. This may allow 94L to stay organized enough to bring heavy rain and wind gusts up to 40 mph to Puerto Rico Monday night and on Tuesday morning to the eastern Dominican Republic. The disturbance is moving fast enough, about 20 mph, that the chances for serious flooding like Tropical Storm Noel brought to the region are low. By Tuesday, the models are showing an increase in wind shear to 30 knots, which should prevent further development. If there's anything left of 94L by Thursday, when it reaches the Western Caribbean, wind shear is expected to drop to 15 knots, and the system has a better chance of developing. I don't expect 94L will ever develop into a tropical storm, though.

I'll have a update Monday morning.

Jeff Masters

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154. 786
3:58 PM GMT on December 10, 2007
https://courseware.e-education.psu.edu/public/meteo/subtropical_cyclones.html..and interesting and very informative website explaining subtropical systems for anyone interested
Member Since: August 18, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 910
153. KEEPEROFTHEGATE (Mod)
3:56 PM GMT on December 10, 2007
track martk 19.2n/62.3w INV/
it has move .5degrees n by 4.2degrees w during the last 12 hrs
Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 178 Comments: 56141
152. IKE
3:52 PM GMT on December 10, 2007
NEW BLOG!
Member Since: June 9, 2005 Posts: 23 Comments: 37860
151. weatherboyfsu
3:49 PM GMT on December 10, 2007
000
WONT41 KNHC 101549
DSAAT
SPECIAL TROPICAL DISTURBANCE STATEMENT
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1100 AM EST MON DEC 10 2007

SATELLITE IMAGES AND SURFACE REPORTS INDICATE THAT A CLOSED SURFACE
CIRCULATION HAS DEVELOPED IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE BROAD AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE NOW CENTERED ABOUT 200 MILES EAST OF PUERTO RICO. SHOWER
ACTIVITY WITH THE LOW REMAINS DISORGANIZED...HOWEVER...WITH THE
STRONGEST THUNDERSTORMS LOCATED A COUPLE HUNDRED MILES NORTH AND
NORTHEAST OF THE CENTER. WHILE A TROPICAL OR SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE
COULD STILL FORM DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS...UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE
EXPECTED TO BECOME GRADUALLY LESS FAVORABLE FOR DEVELOPMENT OVER
THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. REGARDLESS OF WHETHER THE LOW DEVELOPS
FURTHER...IT COULD PRODUCE HEAVY SQUALLS AND GUSTY WINDS OF NEAR
GALE FORCE ACROSS THE VIRGIN ISLANDS AND PUERTO RICO LATER TODAY
AND TONIGHT AS IT MOVES WESTWARD OR WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD AT ABOUT 20
MPH. HEAVY RAINS OVER PUERTO RICO AND HISPANIOLA COULD CAUSE
LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES...AND INTERESTS IN
THESE AREAS SHOULD CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM.

FURTHER SPECIAL TROPICAL DISTURBANCE STATEMENTS WILL BE ISSUED AS
NECESSARY. FOR INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...CONSULT
STATEMENTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

$$
FORECASTER FRANKLIN
Member Since: July 17, 2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 1025
150. Patrap
3:47 PM GMT on December 10, 2007
Jimmy Page Hints at a Tour...

Link
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 428 Comments: 129910
149. IKE
3:46 PM GMT on December 10, 2007
Patrap 9:45 AM CST on December 10, 2007
Tonight..from London

Led Zeppelin Returns



On the cover of the Rolling Stone.

Good Luck ZEP!
Member Since: June 9, 2005 Posts: 23 Comments: 37860
148. cajngranny
3:45 PM GMT on December 10, 2007
g'morning everyone,
in 1996, in Elk City, OK we took our kids trick or treating in the snow. For La kids, to see that much snow all at once was sooo exciting for them. It's not that unusual to have snow in that area before winter is properly here. 1997, same town, the snow waited for Thanksgiving day.(today, that town is being mentioned on twc quite often due to the ice storm, hubby has that station on)
paula
147. weatherboyfsu
3:45 PM GMT on December 10, 2007
The Computer models.......

Yeah I remember them when Felix was growing into a major hurricane.....I dont believe any of them started picking up on the storm until it was already a hurricane.........Yeah the models have their place just like we humans do......
Member Since: July 17, 2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 1025
146. Tropicaldan
3:45 PM GMT on December 10, 2007

Here in St Martin we have had howling winds all weekend and yet right now, with Invest 94L theoretically right over us, its dead calm.

Explanations anyone ?

And no, the 'eye of the invest' will not cut it !
Member Since: February 17, 2006 Posts: 3 Comments: 96
145. Patrap
3:45 PM GMT on December 10, 2007
Tonight..from London

Led Zeppelin Returns

Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 428 Comments: 129910
144. TEXASYANKEE43
3:43 PM GMT on December 10, 2007
142. Patrap 3:38 PM GMT on December 10, 2007
Warm in Nawlins too..But I Blame the republicans..LOL

George Bush, to be exact! hehehe Good one!
143. weatherboyfsu
3:43 PM GMT on December 10, 2007
Thats not a hard question!

Its a easy question, we just dont have enough history to fall back on to give an educated guess. You know everyone says that the Northern polar ice cap is melting but no one is talking about the southern pole which is bigger that ever recorded. I think that as always we humans give ourselves way too much credit for our ability to change things. I think that we can change some small eco-systems but overall we do little to effect the world. The world is way to big and diverse to worry about little ole us! Let me put it to you like this, when we can control a hurricane then come talk to me. When we can move a hurricane around like cattle then come talk to me.

One volcanic eruption puts more carbon dioxide in the atmosphere then the total human race could in twenty years.....(In one of my college classes)////////

Adapt and survive.......move on! Thats my answer......
Member Since: July 17, 2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 1025
142. Patrap
3:38 PM GMT on December 10, 2007
Warm in Nawlins too..But I Blame the republicans..LOL
New Orleans, Louisiana
Elevation: 3 ft / 1 m
[Mostly Cloudy]
73 F / 23 C
Mostly Cloudy
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 428 Comments: 129910
141. franck
3:37 PM GMT on December 10, 2007
Yes, yes guys, you have it. Kansas is being covered in ice in mid-December because it is too warm to snow in December. Just a couple degrees warmer, and we get ice pellets instead of snowflakes.
Member Since: August 30, 2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 1150
140. Patrap
3:36 PM GMT on December 10, 2007
Hey StormW...Monday...
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 428 Comments: 129910
139. Patrap
3:35 PM GMT on December 10, 2007
Good to se Al Gore scaring another one..LOL
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 428 Comments: 129910
138. thelmores
3:34 PM GMT on December 10, 2007
Franck, you and Al Gore may wanna look at this.....

http://right-mind.us/blogs/blog_0/archive/2007/12/10/56595.aspx

" Southern Hemisphere’s ice cover now is at the same level as last June, i.e., a level seen during the last winter in the Southern Hemisphere. Besides, there are two more millions square kilometers of ice now compared to December 2006. And the large positive anomaly has persisted since September.

And

In the Northern Hemisphere, the ice and snow cover have recovered to within 1% (one snowstorm) of normal with the official start of winter still more than 12 days away "


Oh, it will be 77f in Myrtle Beach today.... must be global warming! LOL
Member Since: September 8, 2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 3805
137. franck
3:34 PM GMT on December 10, 2007
For everyone who dilikes the global warming debate, let's assume global warming is a cyclical phenom, and will be over in five more years. Now, let's address the present ice storm in Kansas in mid-December, closing airports and throwing people in the cold. Why is global warming perhaps responsible??
Member Since: August 30, 2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 1150
135. Patrap
3:33 PM GMT on December 10, 2007
This system isnt a threat,nor is it ever likely to be. One must look downstream in time ,and NWesterly thru time, as a CONUS big butted High is sure to bring this swirlie a ticket North,than Northeast thru time.

GFSx Link
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 428 Comments: 129910
134. HurricaneGeek
3:31 PM GMT on December 10, 2007
*Geek raises his hand*

Because It would be snow, otherwise??
Member Since: May 10, 2007 Posts: 110 Comments: 7039
133. Patrap
3:31 PM GMT on December 10, 2007
O boy....theres a Question to really get Monday a going downhill.
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 428 Comments: 129910
132. franck
3:28 PM GMT on December 10, 2007
Question for the class:
How are the ever more common ice storms in the mid and northern latitudes of the North American continent a sign of global warming?
Member Since: August 30, 2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 1150
131. weatherboyfsu
3:28 PM GMT on December 10, 2007
Good morning,

I know some of you are going to hate me for saying this but Olga would be a great Christmas present for me! I know we are over 2 weeks away but an early present wouldnt hurt.

The lastest satellite shows a low level circulation taking shape and some thunderstorm activity on the very northern periphery......

Tonight could become very interesting......

I know the weather here in central florida has been very unusually warm....Kind of weird.....
Member Since: July 17, 2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 1025
130. 786
3:27 PM GMT on December 10, 2007
Everyone here thinks they are scot free once the hurricane season is over and they do not monitor the weather because they don't think they have anything to worry about, but really a nor-easter or subtropical system could be much worse and stronger that a cat. 1!!! Good to know, I will continue storm tracking
Member Since: August 18, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 910
129. HurricaneGeek
3:27 PM GMT on December 10, 2007
Thanks StormW.
Member Since: May 10, 2007 Posts: 110 Comments: 7039
127. hurricane23
3:23 PM GMT on December 10, 2007
First here is a good look at were the LLC with this T/STS system presently...Most models right now are in agreement as mentioned yesterday that strong high pressure to its north like most tropical cyclones this year will be pushed SW into the western caribbean.Right now wheather that happens our not is up for question as the SW flow ahead of the projected cold front could tend turn 94L on more NW course.The high pressure ridge to its north is actually forcasted to shift east and move south which in my opinion could turn 94L toward FL and bring the state some much need rainfall. Adrian

Current models for 94L from SFWMD.

Great loop to watch 94L


Member Since: May 14, 2006 Posts: 8 Comments: 13841
126. IKE
3:22 PM GMT on December 10, 2007
Has a TCFA on it...not sure if that was posted earlier...

Link
Member Since: June 9, 2005 Posts: 23 Comments: 37860
125. HurricaneGeek
3:22 PM GMT on December 10, 2007
No problem. Of course you are right, things like this DO happen. I am glad I could help! :)
Member Since: May 10, 2007 Posts: 110 Comments: 7039
124. HurricaneGeek
3:20 PM GMT on December 10, 2007
Also, 786. I am 99% sure Noel was not purely tropical way up North near New England and the Canadian Maritimes, yet there was winds over hurricane force. It had transitioned. That is probably a better example then the West Coast Storm
Member Since: May 10, 2007 Posts: 110 Comments: 7039
123. 786
3:20 PM GMT on December 10, 2007
oh right! wow fascinating, I guess just cause the hurricane season is over does not mean we should stop monitoring the weather as possibly devastating systems are still likely!!

Thx a lot for the info.
Member Since: August 18, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 910
122. HurricaneGeek
3:18 PM GMT on December 10, 2007
And what made me say the West Coast Storm is that came from the Ocean, like a hurricane.
Member Since: May 10, 2007 Posts: 110 Comments: 7039
121. HurricaneGeek
3:16 PM GMT on December 10, 2007
Means that it can still have winds over 74 mph even though it is not a "hurricane" per se. A perfect example is the West Coast Storm on the Pacific Side just about a week ago. That was NOT a hurricane, yet there was winds as high as in the 120's. That's Category 3.
Member Since: May 10, 2007 Posts: 110 Comments: 7039
120. 786
3:13 PM GMT on December 10, 2007
oh right,what do you mean by exceed hurricane force? I thought that a subtrop system would not have the potential to get as strong as a pure tropical system?? although could cause a lot of damage if it lingers around...
Member Since: August 18, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 910
119. NEwxguy
3:13 PM GMT on December 10, 2007
Good job Storm as always.
Member Since: September 6, 2007 Posts: 888 Comments: 15989
118. IKE
3:11 PM GMT on December 10, 2007
HurricaneGeek 9:09 AM CST on December 10, 2007
But even if it not purely tropical, it can still have wind that exceeds hurricane force.


Yup.

Looks like Pacman on visible satellite.
Member Since: June 9, 2005 Posts: 23 Comments: 37860
117. HurricaneGeek
3:09 PM GMT on December 10, 2007
But even if it not purely tropical, it can still have wind that exceeds hurricane force.
Member Since: May 10, 2007 Posts: 110 Comments: 7039
116. IKE
3:07 PM GMT on December 10, 2007
786 9:02 AM CST on December 10, 2007
Question: if it remains subtropical/extratropical then it could not transition into a hurricane? It would have to develop into a tropical system with a closed circulation?


It could transition into a hurricane. I think it has to be truly tropical to make it to a hurricane.
Member Since: June 9, 2005 Posts: 23 Comments: 37860
115. HurricaneGeek
3:06 PM GMT on December 10, 2007
I read your synopsis. Nice Job! You make it easy to understand too! :)
Member Since: May 10, 2007 Posts: 110 Comments: 7039
114. 786
3:05 PM GMT on December 10, 2007
Thx Storm, great synopsis as always - a nie little suprise b4 x-mas
Member Since: August 18, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 910
113. 786
3:02 PM GMT on December 10, 2007
Question: if it remains subtropical/extratropical then it could not transition into a hurricane? It would have to develop into a tropical system with a closed circulation?
Member Since: August 18, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 910
111. taistelutipu
3:01 PM GMT on December 10, 2007
Oh, it seems to be developing (as far as I have understood by quickly scanning the last posts). Darn, I'm missing most of it due to technical problems. For the last 2 hours I've been struggling with my computer and my digi cam because I wanted to upload new pics in my wunderphotos but the camera is not recognized by the system. Since the last update several things don't work anymore *argh* Sometimes the loops freeze as well... I'll be off for a while busy with troubleshooting extreme. :-(
Member Since: August 20, 2007 Posts: 12 Comments: 640
110. 786
2:59 PM GMT on December 10, 2007
It does look decent on the satellite, lol well we could def. use a little rain here already since the dry season started.
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109. HurricaneGeek
2:58 PM GMT on December 10, 2007
Ok.
Member Since: May 10, 2007 Posts: 110 Comments: 7039
108. IKE
2:57 PM GMT on December 10, 2007
Like the NHC stated...within 24 hours.
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107. HurricaneGeek
2:56 PM GMT on December 10, 2007
When do ya think, Ike?
Member Since: May 10, 2007 Posts: 110 Comments: 7039
106. IKE
2:55 PM GMT on December 10, 2007
I think there's a good chance it'll be upgraded..probably a ST. STD or STS?
Member Since: June 9, 2005 Posts: 23 Comments: 37860
105. 786
2:54 PM GMT on December 10, 2007
Here in Cayman the weather pretty cool and very windy so not sure if it will have a chance in the W Caribbean to develop further
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104. IKE
2:53 PM GMT on December 10, 2007
San Juan...long range radar...

Link
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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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