Katrina a tropical depression

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 9:54 PM GMT on August 30, 2005

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Just a quick update on the current state of tropics for now. The incredible stories of Katrina's devastation playing on the news now leave me stunned, and my heart goes out to all the victims and their loved ones.

Katrina now
Katrina is a tropical depression, racing northeastward through Indiana and Ohio at 27 mph, and will be gone tomorrow. No major flooding due to Katrina's rains is occurring in the areas north of the coastal devastation zone. The flooding and rains associated with Katrina's second landfall have been fairly low for a major hurricane, since the storm has been moving quickly and the soils the rain have been falling on are not saturated from previous storms. Katrina should continue to produce rain amounts in the 2-4 inch range for the rest of its track, which should only cause localized flooding problems. A few tornadoes are still possible. So far, Katrina has produced two damaging tornadoes in Georgia, one in the tourist town of Helen that ripped the roof off of an Econolodge.


Figure 1.Total estimated precipication from Katrina from the Mobile radar. Maximum amounts were in the 8-12 inch range. Data from 6 NWS radar sites is still not available, due to the failure of over 100 fiber lines in Louisiana and Mississippi. No repair date is available.

What's behind Katrina
We are watching two areas in the Atlantic that may become tropical depressions in the next day or two, but neither are expected to be a threat to land. Tropical Depression 13 dissipated yesterday, but is looking more organized and may regenerate. If it does regenerate, this system is probably only a threat to Bermuda. Another strong tropical low pressure area is midway between Africa and the Lesser Antilles Islands. This low has a large circulation and a small amount of deep convection trying to build over it. The low has some modest wind shear it is fighting, and a large area of dry, dust-laden air surrounding it. The dry air and shear will probably keep the low from developing into a depression today, but the shear may lessen enough tomorrow to let a depression form. If the low does develop, the early track models forecast the system to track northwestward over the open Atlantic Ocean and not threaten land.



Dr. Jeff Masters

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370. Orleans77
2:37 AM GMT on August 31, 2005
Id like to call a vote who here would like squam, ike and ej to leave ...who, other than them would liek me to leave??

i will respect the consensus of the blog, even though i know they wont...

369. OBXER
2:35 AM GMT on August 31, 2005
Hooked Isabelle took out the last 7 miles of the island as far as the road and power lines were concened but Alex last year was a mess with worst flooding since 44 and 400 plus cars flooded out but through it all they did not flood and stayed open.By the way Buffy the owner died last year b/c of a freak acident on his boat it was a hell of a shame but his wife is carying on
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368. hookedontropics
2:36 AM GMT on August 31, 2005
without risking sounding crazy, If you look back on what you guys said, just realize that you may have saved many many lives. For that we all can be thankful
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367. chicagowatcher
2:32 AM GMT on August 31, 2005
Well, it is interesting to note that several times the theory was put forth that a near Eastside hit would finish no. The combination of wind and flooding would be too much. Like alot of people, I initially assumed that when that didn't all happen within an hour of the storm's passing, that the worst case didn't happen.

Reading the worst case scenario that was linked to before the storm hit, I'll wager a gentleman's bet that almost every prediction will be more or less accurate. It's the time that they take to come to pass that is in question.
Member Since: August 28, 2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 153
366. RobertForsman
2:36 AM GMT on August 31, 2005
So how much higher is water expected to rise above it's present level?
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364. JaxAdjuster
2:34 AM GMT on August 31, 2005
That's true Aqua. But in fairness to them, I remember when I left home, it was the first time in my whole life, that life could be about me. Prior to that, it was about what my parents wanted, etc. I didn't have time for other people's problems because, I thought, for the first time, I didn't have any! LOL! Boy, was I ever wrong.

In my 20's I didn't know how hard life could be.

As I approach my 40's, I realize life is very, very difficult. Compassion comes much easier these days.

Some of the young people on here are far more advanced in their compassionate feelings for others than I was at their age. My hat's off to you all.
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363. Canenut
2:34 AM GMT on August 31, 2005
WWL to end broadcast in 1 hr. Any other good streams?
362. Orleans77
2:36 AM GMT on August 31, 2005
meant hope we were missing the worst...sorry tired still
361. leftyy420
2:34 AM GMT on August 31, 2005
the thing is it is no secret no would take a big hit at sometime. u think the stae govt and the local govt would have a plan of action if this ever happened. they wouldimplimant that plan if it did. they seem to be just reacting to the things that are happening. they keepsaying were are trying to plan where to put them but we need to evacuate. i could not imagine a stae that would not have some plan if a natural disaster happened.thats the sad pasrt. they did not even have a plan,hellp contraflow wasn't thought uptill ivan. very upsetting
Member Since: August 24, 2005 Posts: 35 Comments: 1987
359. hookedontropics
2:35 AM GMT on August 31, 2005
Guys with all due respect to all of the other storms, we are talking about something that has never happened, let the white , black, and purple people get some damn bread..
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358. Orleans77
2:35 AM GMT on August 31, 2005
thank you jax...when there was some hope we were gettin blasted...nut now that its gotten bad..seems what lefty and i were warning of as a worst case scenario has happned...
357. theway
2:34 AM GMT on August 31, 2005
From WWLTV.com

****ALL RESIDENTS ON THE EAST BANK OF ORLEANS AND JEFFERSON REMAINING IN THE METRO AREA ARE BEING TOLD TO EVACUATE AS EFFORTS TO SANDBAG THE LEVEE BREAK HAVE ENDED. THE PUMPS IN THAT AREA ARE EXPECTED TO FAIL SOON AND 9 FEET OF WATER IS EXPECTED IN THE ENTIRE EAST BANK. WITHIN THE NEXT 12-15 HOURS****
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356. geauxtigers
2:32 AM GMT on August 31, 2005
by the way, here's a decent map of the parishes in LA for those who are interested. It might be of interest to some of you.

http://quickfacts.census.gov/qfd/maps/louisiana_map.html
355. RobertForsman
2:34 AM GMT on August 31, 2005
Lefty..are you also in Virginia?
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354. Orleans77
2:33 AM GMT on August 31, 2005
sewmap...no heres the latest..the levies have failed

6:41 P.M. - Efforts to stop the levee break at the 17th Street Canal have ended unsuccessfully and the water is expected to soon overwhelm the pumps in that area, allowing water to pour into the east bank of Metairie and Orleans to an expected height of 12-15 feet.

7:59 P.M. - Mayor Nagin: Pumps at 17th street canal has failed and water will continue pouring into the city. Nine feet of water is expected on St. Charles Avenue that will be nine feet high. Water is expected to spread throughout the east bank of Orleans and possibly Jefferson Parish.

THIS IS WHY THEY ARE EVACING
353. Gatorbait05
2:33 AM GMT on August 31, 2005
After Hugo in Charleston Mayor Joseph Riley said one thing to potential looters. "You loot, we shoot."
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352. JaxAdjuster
2:32 AM GMT on August 31, 2005
I agree 77. Let's not feed squam. Speaking of losing the city of New Orleans before it is actually lost is not alarmism.
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351. hookedontropics
2:33 AM GMT on August 31, 2005
ISABEL was nasty, did howard's flood?
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350. jeff14photos
7:32 PM PDT on August 30, 2005
yes i agree orleans
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349. Orleans77
2:33 AM GMT on August 31, 2005
thks observer
348. aquak9
10:26 PM EDT on August 30, 2005
my neighbor is young (to me), at 24, she is almost indifferent to this tragedy...I think with age comes a deeper empathy/respect/understanding of how fragile life is , how lucky we are to be alive...the young are blessed with the idea of being nearly immortal...and the young can still type that little lol thing at this time. No offense to the posters but this is a tragedy of immeasurable proportions, and some of the younger people don't seem to grasp the enormity of it. IMHO.
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347. Sundogs
2:24 AM GMT on August 31, 2005
In WWI the French army was moved to the front using Paris taxis. I think the government could come up with a means to move the refugees from the Gulf Coast. The question is, where should the refugees from the Gulf Coast be moved to? There must be a lot of backroom discussions going on concening this where the tent cities will be set up.
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346. Orleans77
2:32 AM GMT on August 31, 2005
seabury...ur right im sorry i misread your post...my apologies
345. hookedontropics
2:31 AM GMT on August 31, 2005
COobserver, THAT IS HILARIOUS... BYE BYE IKE
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344. OBXER
2:31 AM GMT on August 31, 2005
Hooked worked there for eleven years will be on this blog is its up when we get the next one
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343. sewmap
2:29 AM GMT on August 31, 2005
very relieved that you heard from him.

Don't worry about the people who don't believe what you report. If they haven't yet figured out that you report accurate news, then they're not going to. I haven't found anything that you have reported that was BS. I find it rather disheartening that people are still bickering after what has happened:(

Have you heard if they expect to be able to fix the levees?
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342. pseabury
2:28 AM GMT on August 31, 2005
Orleans - no sir...keep bringing it. For exactly the reasons you stated. I was simply giving you credit is all, and trying to find out more. Sorry, I prolly coulda put it in a better way. Finger fatigue.

Geaux - Thanks for the info. That's one feed that I'm not watching and honestly had heard nothing about whatsoever. I do have a lazy eye, but that just means I got WWL and TV at same time. Lazy eye don't mean 5 eyes. :)
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341. Spoon
2:29 AM GMT on August 31, 2005
Iíve been watching this blog since before Katrina hit Florida. Just wanted to say I really have enjoyed the input from everyone, and really appreciate those who are posting information from WWL and such. I donít have access to a fast enough Internet connection at home to watch those video streams.
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340. Orleans77
2:31 AM GMT on August 31, 2005
lets all ignore squam too please...
339. deb1
2:28 AM GMT on August 31, 2005
WDSU are reporting the water in NOLA is going to rise another 9 feet and they are now trying to completely evacuate the city.
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338. COobserver
2:23 AM GMT on August 31, 2005
Since the topic came up...

Yahoo News characterizes white looters as "finding bread and soda from a local grocery store..."

http://www.flickr.com/photos/fields/38749469/in/set-854223/

A black kid, on the other had, is said to be "looting a grocery store..."

http://www.flickr.com/photos/fields/38749510/in/set-854223/
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337. Orleans77
2:30 AM GMT on August 31, 2005
deb weve dediced to ignore both EJ and Ike as they have proven themselves to be racist bigots...you are free to do as you wish but there is no pint indulging them
336. hookedontropics
2:30 AM GMT on August 31, 2005
Howards Pub, open 366 days a year or something like that.
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334. leftyy420
2:29 AM GMT on August 31, 2005
lol idon't go there nut iwent to chase isabelle. man that storm took my breath away for how hard it hit va beach. i was shocked, think we had winds of over 100 mph. not alot of bad damage but it was powerful
Member Since: August 24, 2005 Posts: 35 Comments: 1987
333. SEFL
10:23 PM EDT on August 30, 2005
Since New Orleans is under martial law, looters can be shot. I doubt any guardsman is going to shoot a looter, but if things get more dangerous they will get more jumpy. Anyone arrested under martial law also has forfeited the usual right to legal representation and a speedy trial. The trial could also be, but unlikely to be, military.
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332. Orleans77
2:28 AM GMT on August 31, 2005
thks chicago...good point
331. hookedontropics
2:28 AM GMT on August 31, 2005
I was talking air lifting help from Mexico.
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330. ejstrick
2:23 AM GMT on August 31, 2005
Hello Deb. You can't differentiate between looters.
Sure, some are getting necessities but others are
going for the subwoofers and air jordans. Call me
conservative, which I am, but some people use this
for their own gain. I have stroked a check for the
Red Cross to help.
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329. leftyy420
2:27 AM GMT on August 31, 2005
man isabelle left surge damage all rthe way up the cheaspeak. i used tolive in colonial beach and went back after the storm and the damage was just horrible. whole board walk gone, pier gone, my fav restuarnt the happy clam gone
Member Since: August 24, 2005 Posts: 35 Comments: 1987
328. OBXER
2:26 AM GMT on August 31, 2005
Ps i hope we can get through the season without one after Isabelle and Alex but time will only tell, by the way in on Ocracoke have you ever made it down this far?
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327. RobertForsman
2:27 AM GMT on August 31, 2005
I'm not far from Virginia beach here. I try to stay the hell out of that place.
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326. twifob
2:14 AM GMT on August 31, 2005
hookedontropics -
Don't diss Mexico! I was in Mexico when Hurricane David roared across the Yucatan - the Mexican army (which they use much like we do the National Guard) was cutting their way into Merida as soon as the storm passed, leading a convoy of gas and water tankers and relief supplies. In another flood from a slow-moving but very rainy Pacific Hurricane, we were uncomfortable (but safe) on a high spot in the road and could see the Army using boats to rescue people from the little hills all over the Sonoran desert.

The problem with NO is that it's FLOODED! The Yucatan got flatttened, but they could at least clear the roads to get to town. You can't drag water out of the way.
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325. Orleans77
2:27 AM GMT on August 31, 2005
sewmap...he had five hrs hangin on to a telphone pool..lotsa broken bones..very shaken very gald to be alive
324. chicagowatcher
2:26 AM GMT on August 31, 2005
...im getting really tired of having to quote every source...


Well then don't, you goof. Interested parties will go look it up. Lazy parties (like me) will just take your word for it.
Member Since: August 28, 2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 153
323. P682
2:24 AM GMT on August 31, 2005
Pseabury,
Look at the following link.
http://abcnews.go.com/US/HurricaneKatrina/story?id=1081633&page=1
Can also link from drudgereport.com
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322. pseabury
2:26 AM GMT on August 31, 2005
RobertF - the attempts to fix the levee at 17th canal has been abandoned. Pumps have also stopped. Water will equalize with Lake P. at or around +3ft MSL. That puts 10 feet or so downtown and south to Carrolton. More or less in other parts of the city.
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321. GRDRATNAVARRE
2:19 AM GMT on August 31, 2005
If you didn't see it today there's an assault carrier in the gulf ready to assist. FEMA has to make the request. That has 600 hospital beds and bukoo helos, the big 53's, 30 pax at a time. My suggestion would be get some LCATS in there. Those hover craft could handle hundreds at a time and cover the distance quickly. Question is where do they go then.
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320. Orleans77
2:27 AM GMT on August 31, 2005
im quite intellectual..only mention your age because rather than risin above it your acting it...

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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.