Atlantic hurricane season probably over; Cyclone Sidr's death toll tops 3,000

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 2:24 PM GMT on November 19, 2007

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The Atlantic hurricane season officially ends on November 30, but unofficially, it is probably over. While ocean temperatures are still plenty warm to support tropical cyclone formation in the Caribbean and the Bahamas, wind shear has become prohibitive across the entire tropical Atlantic, and is forecast to remain so until early December. It is possible wind shear will fall low enough over the mid-Atlantic in early December to support tropical storm formation. Any such storm would be far out at sea, and not threaten any land areas. Ocean temperatures are continuing to cool, though, and I put the odds of such a development at 20%. In the recent active Atlantic hurricane period that began in 1995, five of the twelve years have had a named storm form after November 18. With the exception of Tropical Storm Odette of December 2003, none of these storms hit land. Odette hit the Dominican Republic as a 50 mph tropical storm, and triggered flash floods that killed eight people. Late season storms typically form in the Western Caribbean or in the open Atlantic (Figure 1). Due to the frequent number of strong troughs of low pressure marching across the Atlantic this time of year, most tropical storms move north or northeast as soon as they form.


Figure 1. Path of all Atlantic named storms that formed between November 16 and 30, 1851-2006.

Tropical Cyclone Sidr's death toll at 3,000 and rising
Tropical Cyclone Sidr's death toll has risen above 3,000, making the storm the deadliest tropical cyclone the world has seen since Hurricane Mitch hit Honduras in 1998, killing over 9,000 people. The Red Crescent aid agency is estimating that Sidr's toll could reach 5,000-10,000, based on their experience with previous cyclones in Bangladesh. Thousands of people are still missing, and communications to many hard-hit outlying islands remain difficult.

Landmark IPCC report issued
The Nobel Prize-winning Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) released their final "Synthesis Report" Saturday. This massive effort, repeated just once every seven years by 2,000 of the world's top climate scientists, summarizes the current state of scientific knowledge on climate change, the likely impacts, and options for how to respond. All literate citizens of the world should at least skim the 23-page report. For those of you unwilling to do so, I'll give you a 4-sentence summary:

Human-caused climate change is very likely already occurring, and will get much more significant over the coming decades. While some regions will experience benefits, most regions will experience costly and dangerous climate change. Developing nations will suffer the most. Strong action to reduce greenhouse gas emissions by 2015 is needed to prevent the worst impacts.

Jeff Masters

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411. Cavin Rawlins
9:12 PM GMT on November 21, 2007
This is the total opposite. Brisk winds being funneled through the valley of the Tehautepec Peninsula caused upwelling of cold water over the Gulf of Tehuantepec. This was discuss a few weeks ago on this blog.

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410. Cavin Rawlins
8:51 PM GMT on November 21, 2007
Cloud Streets over the NW ATL



Zoom



This was pointed out by Bonedog earlier

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409. Bonedog
8:44 PM GMT on November 21, 2007
A new NOAA research model indicates nutrients flowing from the Mississippi River may stimulate harmful algal blooms to grow on the continental shelf off the west coast of Florida. The peer-reviewed hypothesis is being published in a special issue on Florida red tide in the journal "Continental Shelf Research."

According to the model, algal blooms form on the Florida coast because of weather and gulf currents. The algae grows offshore, supplied with additional nutrients that appear to have originated from the Mississippi River, in a process driven by normal seasonal wind patterns.

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408. Bonedog
8:38 PM GMT on November 21, 2007
afternoon 456
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407. Cavin Rawlins
8:37 PM GMT on November 21, 2007
Good afternoon all
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406. NEwxguy
8:36 PM GMT on November 21, 2007
Looks rain will hold off until evening up here.
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405. Bonedog
8:33 PM GMT on November 21, 2007
yea NE and then some white stuff tomorrow. 1 to 3 inches maybe.

Im looking at rain :( I hate wet holidays.. make it snow or sunny rain just stinks on the holidays
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404. NEwxguy
8:26 PM GMT on November 21, 2007
Looks like lake is going to get some hvy rain tonight
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403. Bonedog
8:15 PM GMT on November 21, 2007
AT 202 PM CST...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR CONTINUED TO
INDICATE A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A TORNADO NEAR
COUCH...OR 11 MILES NORTHEAST OF THAYER...MOVING EAST AT 30 MPH.

THE TORNADO WILL REMAIN OVER MAINLY RURAL AREAS OF OREGON COUNTY.
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402. NEwxguy
8:09 PM GMT on November 21, 2007
a lot of energy around
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401. Bonedog
7:42 PM GMT on November 21, 2007
this isnt good either :(

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400. Bonedog
7:41 PM GMT on November 21, 2007
LA looks bad also and so does the TX border near LA


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399. Bonedog
7:33 PM GMT on November 21, 2007
Arkansas looks to be the battle ground a little later today. The conditions are present..

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398. Bonedog
7:24 PM GMT on November 21, 2007
a few of those storms in the midwest show rotation now :(
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397. Bonedog
7:20 PM GMT on November 21, 2007
yea the H8 temps will be warm until wednesday or thursday. I also dont see any blocking high.

We dodged a bullet it looks like. The Lake region though might be close enough to see some wet snow
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396. NEwxguy
7:13 PM GMT on November 21, 2007
yeh,thats the way I read it,too
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395. Bonedog
7:11 PM GMT on November 21, 2007
heavy rain. Doesnt look like a snow event for us
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394. Bonedog
7:01 PM GMT on November 21, 2007
yea NE should be a big one

trying to see about snowfall potential now
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393. NEwxguy
7:00 PM GMT on November 21, 2007
that gulf storm is projected to go right up over the northeast with hvy rains.
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392. Bonedog
6:55 PM GMT on November 21, 2007
LOL The gulfstream is so warm compared to the surrounding water that it is showing up on IR channel 2 sat images

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391. Bonedog
6:52 PM GMT on November 21, 2007
Yea NE its like the atmosphere is getting warmed up for something big.

Might be the system forcasted for monday/tuesday
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390. taistelutipu
6:51 PM GMT on November 21, 2007
Hi Flood, Bone, NEwx and groundswell...

I'm glad I happen to be online at a time when you're also around :-) I had a hell of a week so I could only peep in for some seconds. Only 3 more weeks to go, then I'm off on vacation.
I'll go and check on these three systems and on the European storm 456 announced. See you in a minute.

_o/ tipsku
Member Since: August 20, 2007 Posts: 12 Comments: 639
389. NEwxguy
6:49 PM GMT on November 21, 2007
This is really a strange weather pattern for the east coast.There's a huge system se of the cape,a large anticyclonic spin off georgia/florida coast,a couple of fronts in the gulf stirring up a spin there,you get the feeling something big is going to get going.
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388. Bonedog
6:46 PM GMT on November 21, 2007
Afternoon NE

Hey Flood, no big plans for Turkey Day. Visiting the folks house thats about it. Then back to work friday.

LOL ground. I know what you mean. Seen the same. Great swell in mid morning glass by dinner.
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387. Bonedog
6:44 PM GMT on November 21, 2007
CloudSat cross section of Mitag

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386. groundswell
6:39 PM GMT on November 21, 2007
Bone-that could be true, I have seen the gulf go from 6' to flat in about 15 minutes. And I have also seen a highly angled north swell move almost paralell to the coast in southwest Florida. Going right meant going out!
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385. Floodman
6:39 PM GMT on November 21, 2007
Bone, how you doing? Big plans for the next couple of days?
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384. NEwxguy
6:39 PM GMT on November 21, 2007
afternoon,all
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383. Bonedog
6:35 PM GMT on November 21, 2007
swell that would give the upper gulf some nice swells.
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382. groundswell
6:34 PM GMT on November 21, 2007
weather.gov
National Weather Service

Marine Interpretation Message

WEAK LOW PRES DEVELOP ALONG FRONT FRI NIGHT IN RESPONSE TO
APPROACHING UPPER TROUGH. LOW MOVES N TO LA COAST SUN NIGHT
DRAGGING A NEW FRONT OFF TX COAST. WINDS NOW PROGGED WEAKER THAN
GALE AND IN 20-30 KT RANGE WITH SEAS 6-9 FT.

Maybe a quick shot for the gulf.
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381. Bonedog
6:29 PM GMT on November 21, 2007
Hey Flood
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380. hurricane23
6:27 PM GMT on November 21, 2007
cchsweatherman for now what we have for south florida atleast for the miami dade and broward counties is a period through about next tuesday of sunny and warm conditions with very low precip chances for the area.

You can always check South Florida weather conditions on my website which include temperature,precip,satelitte views etc...

www.Adrian's Weather.com
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379. Floodman
6:20 PM GMT on November 21, 2007
I'm back; be in and out fro the afternoon (hopefully a short one)...how is everyone?
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378. cchsweatherman
6:18 PM GMT on November 21, 2007
Good afternoon all (or good morning depending upon your location).

Nice to see that we still have bloggers participating in the absence of tropical activity. It is pretty safe to assume that this hurricane season has come to a close.

This season was somewhat less active than predicted, so that is good news. Talking about this season, I will have "Season In Review" special on my site coming up on November 30 recapping a very unique hurricane season to say the least.

Well, I hope everyone has a safe and happy Thanksgiving holiday!!! I'll be eating a different bird other than crow on Thanksgiving! LOL.

PS Does anyone see any rainfall or major cold fronts sweeping through the South Florida area because I want both so bad, but I don't see any. Someone give me some hope please.
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377. BtnTx
6:12 PM GMT on November 21, 2007
...
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376. Bonedog
5:47 PM GMT on November 21, 2007
afternoon folks. Hows things?
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375. BtnTx
5:32 PM GMT on November 21, 2007
Only having small feed bag this year as family spread across the nation. 1 Son and 1 Daughter in Navy, and another Daughter hopefully in Heaven as of May 28 this tough 2007 year.

Let us be Thankful for what we still have...
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374. GBlet
5:07 PM GMT on November 21, 2007
Good Morning to everyone out there! Does everyone have their feedbags ready? I just saw the first flurries of the season!
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373. chilliam
4:28 PM GMT on November 21, 2007
Another season over, glad to hear it. Two hurricane seasons in a row with only 5 hurricanes each, very nice! And hey, 3 of the 5 this barely made Cat 1. Of course, the other two were Cat 5s, so I suppose it all evens out. Either way, here's to hoping next year is just as tame :)
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372. weathermanwannabe
4:18 PM GMT on November 21, 2007
Good Morning.....This will probably be my last post for the year (until next hurricane season) but I wanted to wish everyone (includng Dr. Masters) a great and safe Thanksgiving Holiday.....Given the most recent reports on global climate trends, and Dr. Master's "ongoing" commentary regarding these issues, I suspect that the next several years of tropical seasons may be very interesting as the scientific community, and us, continue to watch what happens and evolves in the next few years...............Hope to see many of you on here next year.....It has been a difficult personal year for many of us, including myself, but in many ways, this Blog certainly helps me get through the Summer doldrums........Godspeed to all of you and here's hoping for a safe year ahead of us (although I suspect that Mother Nature will be throwing a lot of curve balls at us this Winter and through the Spring and next Summer).........Kudos
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371. extreme236
3:31 PM GMT on November 21, 2007
Also to note, the one area of low pressure in the central atlantic that the phase diagrams show as becoming a warm core system is in an area of favorable wind shear
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370. RJinBoyntonBeachFL
3:28 PM GMT on November 21, 2007
What's a FRAY (other than a rock band)?
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369. extreme236
3:27 PM GMT on November 21, 2007
Accidently put on Hagibis's but that raw T# is 6.3!
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368. extreme236
3:27 PM GMT on November 21, 2007
Oops wrong ADT number....here it is:

UW - CIMSS
ADVANCED DVORAK TECHNIQUE
ADT-Version 7.2.1
Tropical Cyclone Intensity Algorithm

----- Current Analysis -----
Date : 2021NOV20 Time : 133000 UTC
Lat : 14:13:44 N Lon : 131:24:56 E


CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
3.7 / 980.8mb/ 59.0kt


6hr-Avg T# 3hr-Avg T# Adj T# Raw T#
3.7 3.7 4.1 6.3

Latitude bias adjustment to MSLP : +0.0mb

Estimated radius of max. wind based on IR :N/A km

Center Temp : -28.9C Cloud Region Temp : -76.6C

Scene Type : EYE

Positioning Method : FORECAST INTERPOLATION

Ocean Basin : WEST PACIFIC
Dvorak CI > MSLP Conversion Used : PACIFIC

Tno/CI Rules : Constraint Limits : 0.5T/hour
Weakening Flag : OFF
Rapid Dissipation Flag : OFF



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367. extreme236
3:26 PM GMT on November 21, 2007
Holy crap! STS Mitag (24W) must be rapidly intensifying. An eye feature is on ADT and look at the raw T#!!!!

UW - CIMSS
ADVANCED DVORAK TECHNIQUE
ADT-Version 7.2.1
Tropical Cyclone Intensity Algorithm

----- Current Analysis -----
Date : 2021NOV20 Time : 133000 UTC
Lat : 9:37:30 N Lon : 113:38:57 E


CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
3.9 / 982.0mb/ 63.0kt


6hr-Avg T# 3hr-Avg T# Adj T# Raw T#
3.9 3.9 4.0 4.0

Latitude bias adjustment to MSLP : +4.4mb

Center Temp : -84.5C Cloud Region Temp : -86.2C

Scene Type : UNIFORM CDO CLOUD REGION

Positioning Method : FORECAST INTERPOLATION

Ocean Basin : WEST PACIFIC
Dvorak CI > MSLP Conversion Used : PACIFIC

Tno/CI Rules : Constraint Limits : NO LIMIT
Weakening Flag : OFF
Rapid Dissipation Flag : OFF
Member Since: August 2, 2007 Posts: 19 Comments: 19234
365. HIEXPRESS
2:54 PM GMT on November 21, 2007
Thanks Flood,
We will be busy enough with the cooking fires.
Unattended/Overfilled Fryers = Job Security!
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364. Floodman
2:37 PM GMT on November 21, 2007
Thanks...the same for you and your family...I'm following HIEXPRESS' instructions on turkey hunting, so I should be good...LOL
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363. NEwxguy
2:33 PM GMT on November 21, 2007
Im good Flood,hope you and your family have a great Thanksgiving.
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362. Floodman
2:28 PM GMT on November 21, 2007
NE, how are you?

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361. HIEXPRESS
2:14 PM GMT on November 21, 2007
Way off tropic:
Happy & Safe Thanksgiving!
Turkey Hunting Safety

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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.