Bangladesh reeling from Cyclone Sidr; Landmark climate change report issued today

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 6:01 PM GMT on November 17, 2007

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Tropical Cyclone Sidr has left immense devastation and suffering in its wake, after the Category 4 storm smashed ashore in Bangladesh with sustained winds near 150 mph. At least 2,000 people are dead, 5,000 injured, and over three million homeless. The cyclone's winds and storm surge of at least 20 feet destroyed over 273,000 buildings and killed over 242,000 livestock. A nation-wide power outage continues in Bangladesh, making communications difficult with the hard-hit areas.


Figure 1. Population density map of Bangladesh for regions less than 10 meters in elevation (red areas) and higher than 10 meters (green areas). The path of Tropical Cyclone Sidr took it inland over the Sundarbans Forest, the least populated region of the coast. However, the more heavily populated provinces just to the right of the Forest, Barguna and Patuakhali, received a storm surge of 10-20 feet. A storm surge of 20 feet was reported at Charkhali, at the head of a narrow estuary connected to the ocean. Image credit: CIESEN, Columbia University.

Sidr's death toll
The death toll from Sidr will go much higher, making the storm the deadliest tropical cyclone the world has seen since Hurricane Mitch of 1998. Mitch dumped up to 30 inches of rain on Honduras, triggering flash floods that killed over 9,000 people. I don't think Sidr's death toll will surpass Mitch's, as the government of Bangladesh was quite successful getting the warning out and evacuating those who would go. The days when a cyclone will kill tens of thousand of Bangladeshis, such as occurred when 140,000 died in the 1991 Bangladesh Cyclone, are probably done. Bangladesh holds ten of the top twenty spots on the list of the world's deadliest tropical cyclones of all time.

Landmark IPCC report issued today
The Nobel Prize-winning Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) released their final "Synthesis Report" today. This massive effort, repeated just once every seven years, summarizes the current state of scientific knowledge on climate change, the likely impacts, and options for how to respond. All literate citizens of the world should read the 23-page report.

Jeff Masters

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188. antihurricane
8:16 PM GMT on November 19, 2007
NEW ANTI-CYCLONE TECHNOLOGY EXIST !

The new anti-hurricane technology is development. PCT/SK2006/000003 - A METHOD OF AND A DEVICE FOR THE REDUCTION OF TROPICAL CYCLONES DESTRUCTIVE FORCE
Antihurricane Technology Fund
www.ahtfund.org
Member Since: August 3, 2007 Posts: 1 Comments: 4
187. Bonedog
2:19 PM GMT on November 19, 2007
it is a shame that even 1 person had to die let alone 3000. My prayers go out to all those affected by this horrible trajedy.
Member Since: July 14, 2005 Posts: 14 Comments: 7418
186. Patrap
2:11 PM GMT on November 19, 2007
..Bangladesh,so many People...



Certified Gold: 1/4/72

The Concert for BanglaDesh is rock reaching for its manhood. Under the leadership of George Harrison, a group of rock musicians recognized, in a deliberate, self-conscious, and professional way, that they have responsibilities -- and went about dealing with them seriously:

" My friend came to me,
With sadness in his eyes,
He told me that he wanted help,
Before his country died,
Although I couldn't feel the pain,
I knew I'd have to try,
Now I'm asking all of you,
To help us save some lies"..

One can ease the suffering with this link. Link
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 428 Comments: 129903
185. sporteguy03
2:09 PM GMT on November 19, 2007
Good Evening!
Thank you for the horrible and surreal update!
Member Since: July 7, 2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 5417
184. lawntonlookers
1:58 PM GMT on November 19, 2007
I remember last week on this Blog we were all talking about the potential of a lot of deaths in Bangladesh because of the low elevation and densely populated areas. We were all hoping that the death toll would remain low because of the evacuation and centers that have been built over the last few years. But it doesn’t appear that those that survived are having it any better. Primarily because of a lack of drinking water. The link below is from a Bangladesh Newspaper. Lack of drinking water
Member Since: March 22, 2006 Posts: 9 Comments: 1570
183. groundswell
1:53 PM GMT on November 19, 2007
weather.gov
National Weather Service

Marine Interpretation Message
ATLC WATERS...

CONDITIONS LIKELY TO CHANGE ACROSS NE
WATERS AS LOW PRES TAKES SHAPE JUST N OF BERMUDA. SOME MODELS
SUGGEST WINDS INCREASING TO GALE FORCE JUST E OF THE AREA ON WED
ON THE S SIDE OF THE MODELED LARGE LOW.

Holiday swell for most of the east coast. Cold water just about everywhere.
Member Since: August 28, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 381
182. hurricane23
1:45 PM GMT on November 19, 2007
180. Bonedog 8:36 AM EST on November 19, 2007
Adrian the article title is misleading here is the part that is important

While the official death toll remains low, Save the Children last night said that it feared that 15,000 people could have died while the Red Crescent estimated around 10,000

Yes it is but on the other hand the situation is really horrible and it really does not matter if its 5000,7000 or 10,000.

Here's one of a few sites that are takeing donations.
Member Since: May 14, 2006 Posts: 8 Comments: 13841
181. hurricane10
1:39 PM GMT on November 19, 2007
update LINK
H10
180. Bonedog
1:36 PM GMT on November 19, 2007
Adrian the article title is misleading here is the part that is important

While the official death toll remains low, Save the Children last night said that it feared that 15,000 people could have died while the Red Crescent estimated around 10,000.

I know the 3000 is low (and I hope it stays that way) but may rise I think these reports of estimated deaths is misleading folks because most dont know right now. More of a headline grabber to sell news more so then actaul figures
Member Since: July 14, 2005 Posts: 14 Comments: 7418
179. hurricane23
1:22 PM GMT on November 19, 2007
Good morning!

Just wanted to drop in to inform the death toll now in Bangaldesh is up to 15,000...What a sad situation in that area.I posted a link in my blog were you can view the lastest news.

Adrian's Weather
Member Since: May 14, 2006 Posts: 8 Comments: 13841
178. Bonedog
1:05 PM GMT on November 19, 2007
anyone around?
Member Since: July 14, 2005 Posts: 14 Comments: 7418
177. Bonedog
11:44 AM GMT on November 19, 2007
I see we have a slow blog today. Maybe it will pick up as folks wake up :)
Member Since: July 14, 2005 Posts: 14 Comments: 7418
176. Cavin Rawlins
11:13 AM GMT on November 19, 2007
Good Morning All

Cloud Streets over the Sea of Japan



Member Since: July 24, 2005 Posts: 407 Comments: 19076
175. Bonedog
11:09 AM GMT on November 19, 2007
Morning Folks.

Sorry i had not updated my blog over the weekend about the winter storm today :( I was under the weather (pardon the pun) and basically stood in bed. I feel alot better now. For those that got snow I hope your shoveling wasnt too bad :/

as of 5am I had 2.75 inches and still falling when I left my home. Expect to see 3 to 4 inches by the time I get back home.
Member Since: July 14, 2005 Posts: 14 Comments: 7418
174. HadesGodWyvern (Mod)
7:41 AM GMT on November 19, 2007
TROPICAL CYCLONE GUBA ADVICE NUMBER THIRTEEN ISSUED AT 6:00 AM UTC
===================================

At 5:00 am UTC, The Tropical Cyclone Guba (CAT 1) located near 11.8S 144.7E or 210 kilometers east-southeast of Orford Ness and 295 kilometers east-southeast of Horn Island had 10 min sustained winds of 40 knots with gust up to 55. The cyclone is moving north-northwest at 6 knots.

Central Pressure: 990 hPa

TROPICAL CYCLONE Guba, CATEGORY 1, with gusts up to 65 knots is expected to INTENSIFY and may make landfall on the east coast of Cape York Peninsula tomorrow.

DAMAGING winds of up to 65 knots may develop on the Torres Strait Islands and the coast between Thursday Island and Lockhart River from early tomorrow morning.

GALES may develop on the Torres Strait Islands and the coast between Thursday Island and Coen overnight. GALES may extend further west across Cape York Peninsula on Tuesday.

As the cyclone crosses/approaches the coast, a storm tide is expected between Lockhart River and Thursday Island. Large waves may produce minor flooding along the foreshore. People living in areas likely to be affected by this flooding should take measures to protect their property as much as possible and be prepared to help their neighbours.

Flood rains are likely in the vicinity of the cyclone as it approaches the coast.

Tropical Cyclone Watch/Warning
==============================
A Tropical Cyclone WARNING is current for the Torres Strait Islands and coastal areas between Thursday Island and Coen.

The Tropical Cyclone WARNING also extends inland to areas north of Weipa.

A Tropical Cyclone WATCH remains current for the remainder of Cape York Peninsula north of Cape Keerweer and Coen.

The Tropical Cyclone WARNING for coastal areas between Coen and Cape Melville has been CANCELLED.


Forecast Intensity
=================
12 hours = 987 hPa 45 knots
24 hours = 987 hPa 45 knots
Member Since: May 24, 2006 Posts: 52 Comments: 47049
173. HadesGodWyvern (Mod)
6:51 AM GMT on November 19, 2007
TROPICAL CYCLONE BONGWE WARNING NUMBER FOUR ISSUED AT 6:00 AM UTC - UPGRADED TO MODERATE TROPICAL STORM AND NAMED "BONGWE"
==========================================

The Depression Tropicale located near 9.9S 77.2E or 2600 kms east-northeast from La Reunion's coast strengthened into a tempête tropicale moderée and was named "Bongwe" by sub-RSMC Mauritius. Moderate tropical storm Bongwe had 10 min sustained winds of 40 knots with gusts up to 50 knots moving south at 7 knots.

Dvorak Intensity: T3.0

Gale Warning Area
=================
30 NM from the system's center

Additional Information
=========================
Forecast Position and intensity

12 HRS - 10.9S 77.1E 40 kts
24 HRS - 11.9S 76.0E 45 kts

Gale winds are generated by this system so it has been named "Bongwe" at 6:00am by Mauritius Meteorological Service. Center position has been relocated eastward with last satellite data. Guidance has been adjusted equatorward but philosophy remains unchanged.

Bongwe should track globally southward then it is expected to recurve southwestward at Day 1 then west-southwest at Day 2.

This system remains in an environment quite favorable for intensification.

Member Since: May 24, 2006 Posts: 52 Comments: 47049
172. BajaALemt
4:49 AM GMT on November 19, 2007
Nice loop of the t'storms flaring up

Link
Member Since: September 25, 2007 Posts: 53 Comments: 8533
171. BajaALemt
4:46 AM GMT on November 19, 2007
Cuidad Victoria weather....thunderstorm/light rain
Member Since: September 25, 2007 Posts: 53 Comments: 8533
170. KEEPEROFTHEGATE (Mod)
4:41 AM GMT on November 19, 2007
rtn flow off the gulf might not be what we want will create some good clashing of the air mass considering all the cold air in place north of gulf this may become quite interesting an fast
Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 178 Comments: 56141
169. BajaALemt
4:39 AM GMT on November 19, 2007
Link

You mean, THIS one *smiles*
Member Since: September 25, 2007 Posts: 53 Comments: 8533
168. wxhatt
4:37 AM GMT on November 19, 2007
Weather's slow...Blog's slow...
not much going on, ~Yawn~

Ah, it's good to be king. LOL

Nite All zzzzzzzzzzzzzzzz
Member Since: October 5, 2005 Posts: 2 Comments: 930
167. wxhatt
4:29 AM GMT on November 19, 2007
Actually SW jet looks a bit menacing, yet there isn't a good kick from the north. Things are looking generally west to east zonal flow across CONUS. Now if our old friend the Newfoundland wheel were in place, that might be another story.

Link
Member Since: October 5, 2005 Posts: 2 Comments: 930
166. HadesGodWyvern (Mod)
4:28 AM GMT on November 19, 2007
TROPICAL CYCLONE GUBA ADVICE NUMBER TWELVE ISSUED AT 4:00 AM UTC
=====================================
The Tropical Cyclone Guba (CAT 1) located as of 3:00am UTC near 11.9S 144.7E or 175 kilometers northeast of Lockhart River and 300 kilometers east-southeast of Horn Island had 10 min sustained winds of 45 knots with gust up to 60. The cyclone is moving northwest at 5 knots.

TROPICAL CYCLONE Guba, CATEGORY 1, is expected to INTENSIFY and may make landfall on the east coast of Cape York Peninsula as early as tonight.

DESTRUCTIVE winds of up to 75 knots may develop between Thursday Island and Lockhart River this evening.

GALES may develop between Thursday Island and Cape Melville from late this afternoon. GALES may extend further west across Cape York Peninsula on Tuesday.

Coastal residents between Thursday Island and Cape Melville are specifically warned that a dangerous storm tide could occur should the cyclone cross the coast.

The sea would rise steadily up to a level well above the normal tide, with damaging waves and flooding of some low-lying areas close to the shoreline.

People living in areas likely to be affected by this flooding should take measures to protect their property as much as possible and be prepared to follow instructions regarding evacuation of the area if advised to do so by the authorities.

Flood rains are likely in the vicinity of the cyclone as it approaches the coast.

Central Pressure: 987 hPa

Tropical Cyclone Watch/Warning
==============================
A FLASH Tropical Cyclone WARNING has been declared for the coastal and island communities between Thursday Island to Cape Melville, and extending over the remainder of Cape York Peninsula in areas north of Weipa.

The Cyclone WATCH for coastal and island communities between Lockhart River and Cape Tribulation has been cancelled and replaced with a Warning.

Member Since: May 24, 2006 Posts: 52 Comments: 47049
165. BajaALemt
4:24 AM GMT on November 19, 2007
Evenin keep

*goes to look*
Member Since: September 25, 2007 Posts: 53 Comments: 8533
164. wxhatt
4:18 AM GMT on November 19, 2007
Eye, Eye, Cap'n Keeper Of The Gate!

Storm could be a brew'n. Arrrrg...
Member Since: October 5, 2005 Posts: 2 Comments: 930
163. wxhatt
4:16 AM GMT on November 19, 2007
Current Atlantic SST's:

Link
Member Since: October 5, 2005 Posts: 2 Comments: 930
162. KEEPEROFTHEGATE (Mod)
4:13 AM GMT on November 19, 2007
keep eyes on extreme w gom near cen mex also nw carb got some nw ward movin convection too it
Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 178 Comments: 56141
161. wxhatt
4:12 AM GMT on November 19, 2007
Evenin Baja ;)
Member Since: October 5, 2005 Posts: 2 Comments: 930
160. wxhatt
4:11 AM GMT on November 19, 2007
I believe it will be possible for more subtropical storms to form off the southeast coast for what remains of the season, with an unuasual extension past the normal cutoff date ending November. This will be due to the continued warmer than normal SST's which persist off SE Conus. When cold air pools enough in the central Canadian provinces, and the polar jet does dive towards the SE Coast from time to time, it will result in cyclogenisis which could be subtropical in nature.

Member Since: October 5, 2005 Posts: 2 Comments: 930
159. BajaALemt
3:55 AM GMT on November 19, 2007
Evenin wxhatt
Member Since: September 25, 2007 Posts: 53 Comments: 8533
158. wxhatt
3:49 AM GMT on November 19, 2007
The newly updated European model monthly forecast just updated its forecast for North America yesterday through the winter and into the spring. The previous forecast issued on October 15th was signaling for a cold and snowy winter in western Canada while much of the eastern U.S. and southeastern Canada would be mild compared to normal with a mean storm track from the central plains through the Great Lakes and into southern Quebec. What did the new update show? What it showed was consistency, which is one thing forecasters look for in model trends to give them more confidence in a forecast. The latest update basically supports the older one, and if anything is more agressive with the cold in the west and the milder weather in the east for the bulk of the winter.
Member Since: October 5, 2005 Posts: 2 Comments: 930
157. wxhatt
3:45 AM GMT on November 19, 2007
October Global Surface Temperature Sixth Warmest on RecordOctober 2007 was the sixth warmest on record globally for surface temperature, according to a news release from the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA).

Member Since: October 5, 2005 Posts: 2 Comments: 930
156. wxhatt
3:40 AM GMT on November 19, 2007
Tropical Atlantic Still Quite CalmA tropical wave is tracking west across Central America and is causing showers and thunderstorms across that area. Another tropical wave along 71 west, south of 18 north is tracking west at 15-20 knots and is passing south of Hispaniola. It the west, causing too much shear for any further organization. This wave should reach Central America by Tuesday and bring another round of thunderstorms to Honduras, Nicaragua and Costa Rica.
Member Since: October 5, 2005 Posts: 2 Comments: 930
155. wxhatt
3:38 AM GMT on November 19, 2007
A weak, but slow-moving storm will continue to blanket portions of the Northeast with snow tonight. Meanwhile, a strong storm will develop in the Plains toward the middle of the week, potentially creating some major troubles on the busiest travel day of the year.
Member Since: October 5, 2005 Posts: 2 Comments: 930
154. wxhatt
3:35 AM GMT on November 19, 2007
Scientists from the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate carrying out global warming research have recently predicted that average global temperatures could increase between 1.4 and 5.8 °C by the year 2100. Changes resulting from global warming may include rising sea levels due to the melting of the polar ice caps, as well as an increase in occurrence and severity of storms and other severe weather events.
Member Since: October 5, 2005 Posts: 2 Comments: 930
153. BajaALemt
2:32 AM GMT on November 19, 2007
Take care zoo.....I'm sure I'll catch ya around....nite
Member Since: September 25, 2007 Posts: 53 Comments: 8533
152. BajaALemt
2:31 AM GMT on November 19, 2007
Thanks for all the pics, 456. Your pics ROCK!!
Member Since: September 25, 2007 Posts: 53 Comments: 8533
151. zoomiami
2:31 AM GMT on November 19, 2007
I'm off - have some sewing to do. Have a good week, hope to catch you one evening.
Member Since: August 13, 2007 Posts: 10 Comments: 4158
150. BajaALemt
2:31 AM GMT on November 19, 2007
Ok. I just sent her a message here. Hope things went well.

Yah, he left on the 12th. So, there's no 'chirping in the nest' now. Sure is quiet :O lol (but thank you for asking) *smiles*
Member Since: September 25, 2007 Posts: 53 Comments: 8533
149. zoomiami
2:30 AM GMT on November 19, 2007
that's neat - I would love to know how you guys do all those things!
Member Since: August 13, 2007 Posts: 10 Comments: 4158
148. zoomiami
2:29 AM GMT on November 19, 2007
Night 456 - thanks for all the graphics - they are always very interesting.
Member Since: August 13, 2007 Posts: 10 Comments: 4158
147. BajaALemt
2:29 AM GMT on November 19, 2007
Bakery in a grocery store, zoo. Busy, busy!!
Member Since: September 25, 2007 Posts: 53 Comments: 8533
146. zoomiami
2:29 AM GMT on November 19, 2007
I haven't seen Tigger since Weds - I was just wondering how the boys were doing. I have her email address - have to send her a note.

BTW - did your son head out to Cali?
Member Since: August 13, 2007 Posts: 10 Comments: 4158
145. Cavin Rawlins
2:28 AM GMT on November 19, 2007
Last one for the day...have a good night all

Member Since: July 24, 2005 Posts: 407 Comments: 19076
144. BajaALemt
2:26 AM GMT on November 19, 2007
Have you seen Tigger at all today, zoo? Her son, Andy, was supposed to have his MRI today
Member Since: September 25, 2007 Posts: 53 Comments: 8533
143. zoomiami
2:26 AM GMT on November 19, 2007
thanks - nice to see you "wink", I bet you are crazy at work. What kind of bakery do you work in?
Member Since: August 13, 2007 Posts: 10 Comments: 4158
142. BajaALemt
2:23 AM GMT on November 19, 2007
No, I didn't. I'll have to go take a look. Thanksgiving is a real busy time for me at work, so I havent been able to get in here as much. It IS nice to see you here (Seems like it's been quiet in here)
Member Since: September 25, 2007 Posts: 53 Comments: 8533
141. zoomiami
2:21 AM GMT on November 19, 2007
Spectre - that's a very dismal report. As I said earlier, its sad that those with the fewest resources are hit the hardest.
Member Since: August 13, 2007 Posts: 10 Comments: 4158
140. zoomiami
2:19 AM GMT on November 19, 2007
Good - still on a mission to get the holidays together early. Did you see the pics on Gamma's site on the drought - she did a great job catching the beginning of the season & the end.
Member Since: August 13, 2007 Posts: 10 Comments: 4158
139. aspectre
2:18 AM GMT on November 19, 2007
Dying for some fish at US$30 per 60kilograms dried, or less than 5 UScents per pound of cleaned fish before drying.
A trivial amount of money to FirstWorlders, yet an amount large enough for a relatively well-off Bangladeshi to risk death rather than watch his hard labor be turned into rapidly growing debt.

The Concert for Bangladesh...
...as in nearly all famines, there was plenty of food warehoused within the country (or being exported) after the floods destroyed the crops. The real problem was a man-made credit crunch.
Farmers couldn't pay back loans they'd taken out for fertilizer/equipment/etc, and couldn't obtain new loans because of the interest*rate on what they already owed. Farm laborers couldn't harvest a destroyed crop, and no employment meant both no money and no loans.
So farmers starved, unless they sold their land for pennies on the dollar. And laborers just starved. As did many workers in businesses which depended upon having farmers and laborers as customers.
Which brings us back to today...
...the fields which were flooded by Sidr's storm surge are gonna take considerably longer to come back into productivity. It takes time for the rains to wash ocean salt outta the soil. And until the soils are fertile again, there are going to be a LOT of unemployed and underemployed Bangladeshis.

It's a big step going from having enough to survive plus just that tiny bit extra to have hope that things are slowly getting better, and having lost everything including any foreseeable employment.
Just something to think about over the Thanksgiving holiday while contemplating Christmas/etc shopping and tax-deductable year-end charitable donations.

*Theoretically, Muslims aren't allowed to charge interest on loans. Practically, it just means usurers get creative ala "I get your fish at 2/3rds of market value until the loan is paid off" as shown in the news article.
Kinda like FirstWorld banks piling on absurd fees to get around laws concerning truth-in-advertising and interest rates.
Member Since: August 21, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 4860
138. BajaALemt
2:17 AM GMT on November 19, 2007
Im good! It's my FRIDAY *laffs* I was thinking the same thing, zoo. Nice to SEE you. How's you?
Member Since: September 25, 2007 Posts: 53 Comments: 8533

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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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