North Sea storm spares England and the Netherlands

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 1:35 PM GMT on November 09, 2007

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A massive fall storm over Europe's North Sea generated winds near hurricane force last night that pushed a dangerous storm surge near 1.5 meters (4.65 feet) in height to the southeastern English coast this morning. The storm surge was much lower than originally feared, due in part to the fact it did not hit at high tide. The surge did breach sea defenses and caused some minor coastal flooding in England. It was feared that the storm might rival the great North Sea Flood of 1953 that breached the dikes in the Netherlands. Over 2,000 people died in northern Europe in that storm, mostly in the Netherlands. While today's storm did not approach the 1953 storm in severity, it did bring the highest storm surge seen in the past 20 years to the North Sea. The massive flood gates that protect the Dutch port of Rotterdam were closed for the first time since they were constructed in the 1990s. From early media accounts, the gates did their job admirably, protecting the Netherlands from inundation. Water levels reached 3.16 meters above mean sea level in the southern Netherlands, and 3.40 meters above sea level in the northern Netherlands, with no flooding reported. The floods of 1953 saw Dutch waters rise to 3.85 meters (12.6 ft) above sea level. Today's storm was not the remains of Hurricane Noel, which is currently over northern Canada.


Figure 1. Visible satellite image of Europe from 1322 GMT November 8, 2007. A powerful 975 mb low pressure system centered north of England ("L" on the image) was pushing a strong cold front southwards towards Western Europe. Image credit: University of Bern, Switzerland.


Figure 2. Forecast waves heights at 6am Greenwich time, Friday November 9, 2007, as predicted by NOAA's Wavewatch III model.

Tropical update
An area of disturbed weather over the extreme southern Caribbean, near Panama, is under about 20 knots of wind shear. The computer forecast models are predicting that some development of this region may occur by Sunday, when wind shear is expected to fall below 20 knots. However, the models are less keen on this prospect than yesterday. Any system that might form is expected to move westward and affect Costa Rica and Nicaragua.

I'll have an update Monday morning, unless there's some new development this weekend.

Jeff Masters

Gales at the Butt (kevindonner)
Storm force winds made taking a good picture difficult, as the lence of the camara got salt on it.
Gales at the Butt

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921. Ivansrvivr
3:37 PM GMT on November 12, 2007
Not hung over, just crabby.
920. Floodman
3:35 PM GMT on November 12, 2007
I can see him passed out on the floor. He'll still be there by the time I catch this lizard and eat him.


Well, don't wake him...he'll only be crabby and hung over...
Member Since: August 2, 2006 Posts: 10 Comments: 9922
919. Ivansrvivr
3:33 PM GMT on November 12, 2007
Mo, you're supposed to keep an eye on him...

I can see him passed out on the floor. He'll still be there by the time I catch this lizard and eat him.
918. NEwxguy
3:28 PM GMT on November 12, 2007
912. Ivansrvivr 3:00 PM GMT on November 12, 2007
I love snow!!! Bring it on. Send enough to make it stick though or its just a tease.

Well,will have to wait till this weekend and see if we get any.
Member Since: September 6, 2007 Posts: 878 Comments: 15721
917. moonlightcowboy
3:18 PM GMT on November 12, 2007
Something cool that Xerox is doing for the TROOPS!

If you go to this web site, www.LetsSayThanks.com you can pick out a thank you card and Xerox will print it and it will be sent to a soldier that is currently serving in Iraq. You can't pick out who gets it, but it will go to some member of the armed services.

How AMAZING it would be if we could get everyone we know to send one!!!

This is a great site.

Please send a card. It is FREE and it only takes a second.

Wouldn't it be wonderful if the soldiers received a bunch of these? Whether you are for or against the war, our guys and gals over there need to know we are behind them ...
Member Since: July 9, 2006 Posts: 184 Comments: 29610
916. Floodman
3:13 PM GMT on November 12, 2007
Yep, Pat...that was some bucket!
Member Since: August 2, 2006 Posts: 10 Comments: 9922
915. Floodman
3:11 PM GMT on November 12, 2007
904. Ivansrvivr 8:54 AM CST on November 12, 2007
"Its a holiday,I guess everyone sleeping late."

Ivan is still passed out


Mo, you're supposed to keep an eye on him...
Member Since: August 2, 2006 Posts: 10 Comments: 9922
914. Ivansrvivr
3:01 PM GMT on November 12, 2007
Gotta go chase a lizard...BBL!!!
913. Patrap
3:00 PM GMT on November 12, 2007
Twas quite a full bucket from our view.
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 423 Comments: 128226
912. Ivansrvivr
3:00 PM GMT on November 12, 2007
I love snow!!! Bring it on. Send enough to make it stick though or its just a tease.
911. Ivansrvivr
2:59 PM GMT on November 12, 2007
They often are in that part of the world. Katrina was a drop in the bucket compared w/ the flooding tropical systems cause over there.
910. NEwxguy
2:58 PM GMT on November 12, 2007
909. Ivansrvivr 2:57 PM GMT on November 12, 2007
NEwxGuy could you send us floridians some rain??

How about some snow
Member Since: September 6, 2007 Posts: 878 Comments: 15721
909. Ivansrvivr
2:57 PM GMT on November 12, 2007
NEwxGuy could you send us floridians some rain??
908. weatherboyfsu
2:57 PM GMT on November 12, 2007
It has potential to be nasty..........
Member Since: July 17, 2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 1025
907. Ivansrvivr
2:56 PM GMT on November 12, 2007
That Cyclone will be a bigtime flood event/
906. NEwxguy
2:56 PM GMT on November 12, 2007
shadow,is going to get interesting this weekend. There will be a coastal storm,but no agreement on strength and position.What worries me is there might be blocking setting up,which would slow things down.
Member Since: September 6, 2007 Posts: 878 Comments: 15721
905. weatherboyfsu
2:55 PM GMT on November 12, 2007
Notice that "SIDR" is winking at us!


I wonder if its a he or she?
Member Since: July 17, 2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 1025
904. Ivansrvivr
2:54 PM GMT on November 12, 2007
"Its a holiday,I guess everyone sleeping late."

Ivan is still passed out.
903. weatherboyfsu
2:54 PM GMT on November 12, 2007
Good morning,

Nothing going on in our boring part of the world but thats not true for other parts of the world. The Bay of Bengal is cranking up........


The cyclonic storm “SIDR” over southeast Bay of Bengal remained practically stationary and lay centred at 1430 hours IST of to day the 12 November, 2007 over southeast Bay of Bengal near Lat. 11.0 Deg N and Long. 90.5 Deg E, about 250 Kms west-SOUTHWEST of Port Blair. The system is likely to intensify further and move in a northwesterly direction initially.


Under its influence, rain/thundershowers at most places with heavy to very heavy falls at a few places and isolated extremely heavy falls ( 25 cm or more ) are likely over Andaman and Nicobar Islands during next 24 hours.


Gale winds speed reaching 70-80 kmph are likely over Andaman and Nicobar Islands and adjoining sea areas during next 48 hours. Sea condition is high to very high around the system centre. Fishermen are advised not to venture into the sea during next 48 hours.




Member Since: July 17, 2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 1025
902. LakeShadow
2:52 PM GMT on November 12, 2007
Happy Veteran's Day to all that served our country and Thanks.
Member Since: August 10, 2007 Posts: 3 Comments: 2134
901. NEwxguy
2:51 PM GMT on November 12, 2007
897. Floodman 2:45 PM GMT on November 12, 2007
Wow, slow as can be in here...any one to home?

Its a holiday,I guess everyone sleeping late.

Member Since: September 6, 2007 Posts: 878 Comments: 15721
900. Ivansrvivr
2:49 PM GMT on November 12, 2007
The northern half of the country will take it on the chin this winter thanks to La Nina.
899. LakeShadow
2:48 PM GMT on November 12, 2007
hey folks. just looking at the situations here...something not so nice over the Ohio valley, coming my way. Another not-so-nice looking storm has come onshore on the NW coast...looks like the weathers gonna get hairy for the NE here for a few days. any thoughts?
Member Since: August 10, 2007 Posts: 3 Comments: 2134
898. Ivansrvivr
2:47 PM GMT on November 12, 2007
It's not slow flood, you're just too fast for us!
897. Floodman
2:45 PM GMT on November 12, 2007
Wow, slow as can be in here...any one to home?
Member Since: August 2, 2006 Posts: 10 Comments: 9922
895. NEwxguy
1:44 PM GMT on November 12, 2007
Thanks Storm,looking toward next weekend up here,could be interesting.
Member Since: September 6, 2007 Posts: 878 Comments: 15721
893. NEwxguy
1:32 PM GMT on November 12, 2007
Good morning
Member Since: September 6, 2007 Posts: 878 Comments: 15721
892. TheCaneWhisperer
12:54 PM GMT on November 12, 2007
Good old 93 or 93 1/2, according to Cimms, will go west without question. High pressure covers the GOM at different locations throughout the steering layers. It would have to get below 940mb to even think about coming north, enter shear, adios amigo. Time to think about Turkey's and how we're going to pay for all the Christmas presents.
891. TheCaneWhisperer
12:50 PM GMT on November 12, 2007
Morning All!

THIS is why I hate La Nina's living in Florida.
889. Muffelchen
11:16 AM GMT on November 12, 2007
886: AVN floater loop shows the secondary blob and does appear to have some rotation.

Let's see what daylight brings.I know it is not scientific but I have a feeling about this one....
Member Since: August 21, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 72
888. moonlightcowboy
10:27 AM GMT on November 12, 2007
Latest TWO

Showers and thunderstorms over portions of the southwestern
Caribbean Sea and Central America are associated with a broad area
of low pressure near the East Coast of southern Nicaragua. Due to
its proximity to land...significant development of this system is
not expected as it moves slowly westward...but locally heavy
rainfall is possible over portions of Nicaragua...Honduras...and
Costa Rica during the next couple of days.
Member Since: July 9, 2006 Posts: 184 Comments: 29610
887. moonlightcowboy
10:22 AM GMT on November 12, 2007
Member Since: July 9, 2006 Posts: 184 Comments: 29610
886. moonlightcowboy
9:59 AM GMT on November 12, 2007
AVN floater loop shows the secondary blob and does appear to have some rotation.
Member Since: July 9, 2006 Posts: 184 Comments: 29610
885. Muffelchen
9:52 AM GMT on November 12, 2007
883: looks like we might get a 94L also in the caribiean soon

Presumably this is the HUGE blob of convection just to the NNE of 93L?

Looks impresssive. Is it spinning?

Is it likely to be inhibited by outflow from 93L or will that die now that it is over land allowing this blob to become an invest?

It does pear to have a clear water track in front of it should it get organised.
Member Since: August 21, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 72
883. 7544
7:21 AM GMT on November 12, 2007
looks like we might get a 94L also in the caribiean soon
Member Since: May 6, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 6810
882. HadesGodWyvern (Mod)
7:13 AM GMT on November 12, 2007
Joint Typhoon Warning Center

Tropical Disturbance Summary (0600z 12Nov)
==========================================
An area of convection (96P) persisted near 6.7S 152.1E or 340 NM east-northeast of Port Moresby, Papua New Guinea. Animated enhanced infrared satellite imagery depicts a broad area of organizing deep convection. Quikscat image shows a better defined low level circulation center.

Upper level analysis shows the system lies beneath an upper level anticyclone which is greatly enhancing convection. Vertical wind shear remains low and divergence aloft is favorable over the developing LLCC.

Maximum sustained winds near the center is 20-25 knots with a minimum sea level pressure of 1003. Due to the favorable upper level environment an the improving LLCC, the potential of this disturbance to form into a significant tropical cyclone within the next 24 hours is upgraded to FAIR
Member Since: May 24, 2006 Posts: 50 Comments: 45279
881. HadesGodWyvern (Mod)
6:43 AM GMT on November 12, 2007
CYCLONIC STORM SIDR (BOB 09/2007)
10.5N 91.0E - 40 knots (3 min sustained winds) 1002 hPa

Tropical Cyclone Bulletin #5
========================
The deep depression over southeast Bay of Bengal and adjoining Andaman Sea moved slighly west and intensified into a cyclonic storm. The cyclone was named "Sidr" and lays centered as of 3:00am UTC at 10.5N 91.0E or 220 kms southwest of Port Blair. The system is also likely to intensify further and move in a northwest direction.

Under its influence, rain/thundershowers at most places with heavy to very heavy falls at a few places and isolated extremely heavy falls ( 25 cm or more ) are likely over Andaman and Nicobar Islands during next 24 hours.

Squally winds speed reaching 70 km/h with gusts up to 80 km/h are likely over Andaman and Nicobar Islands and adjoining sea areas during next 48 hours.

Sea condition is high to very high around the system centre. Fishermen are advised not to venture into the sea during the next 48 hours.

Current intensity T2.5, Maximum sustained surface winds speed 35-45 knots. Satellite imageries show intense to very intense convection associated with the system. Estimated Central Pressure is 1002 hPa.

The system is likely to intensify further and move slowly in a northwesterly direction. 24 hours forecast is T3.5

---
I wonder why the IMD pressure for this system is so high compared to the JTWC near 980 mb pressure.
Member Since: May 24, 2006 Posts: 50 Comments: 45279
880. flaboyinga
6:43 AM GMT on November 12, 2007
A good night to all and a better tomorrow.
879. Orcasystems
6:18 AM GMT on November 12, 2007
Well I am off for the night.. hopefully no trees will fall into my Koi pond tonight
Member Since: October 1, 2007 Posts: 81 Comments: 26511
878. Orcasystems
6:14 AM GMT on November 12, 2007
You should try and spell some of the west coast native names. Its bad enough that half of the places around here were named after spanish explorers, then throw in the native names.. makes for fun reading
Member Since: October 1, 2007 Posts: 81 Comments: 26511
877. flaboyinga
6:11 AM GMT on November 12, 2007
Micmac is probably an Indian word meaning don't spell this incorrectly.(and I did)
876. flaboyinga
6:09 AM GMT on November 12, 2007
Thanks for the link. That's the one.
875. Orcasystems
6:07 AM GMT on November 12, 2007
Nice balmy 50 degress

That being said.. severe weather warning out right now
Member Since: October 1, 2007 Posts: 81 Comments: 26511
874. flaboyinga
6:06 AM GMT on November 12, 2007
What is the temperature where you are tonight?
873. Orcasystems
6:05 AM GMT on November 12, 2007
Here is a link for you... HMCS Micmac Tribal Class destroyer
Member Since: October 1, 2007 Posts: 81 Comments: 26511
872. Orcasystems
6:04 AM GMT on November 12, 2007
I have definately heard about it... whoever hasn't needs to stay awake in school
Member Since: October 1, 2007 Posts: 81 Comments: 26511
871. flaboyinga
6:02 AM GMT on November 12, 2007
Orca, you got me there. I am old. I was in the carribean for the cuban missile blockade and I can't get the kids I mention it to that it really happened. They never heard of it. I think HMCS Mickmack might have been down there around that time, too.

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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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