North Sea storm spares England and the Netherlands

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 1:35 PM GMT on November 09, 2007

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A massive fall storm over Europe's North Sea generated winds near hurricane force last night that pushed a dangerous storm surge near 1.5 meters (4.65 feet) in height to the southeastern English coast this morning. The storm surge was much lower than originally feared, due in part to the fact it did not hit at high tide. The surge did breach sea defenses and caused some minor coastal flooding in England. It was feared that the storm might rival the great North Sea Flood of 1953 that breached the dikes in the Netherlands. Over 2,000 people died in northern Europe in that storm, mostly in the Netherlands. While today's storm did not approach the 1953 storm in severity, it did bring the highest storm surge seen in the past 20 years to the North Sea. The massive flood gates that protect the Dutch port of Rotterdam were closed for the first time since they were constructed in the 1990s. From early media accounts, the gates did their job admirably, protecting the Netherlands from inundation. Water levels reached 3.16 meters above mean sea level in the southern Netherlands, and 3.40 meters above sea level in the northern Netherlands, with no flooding reported. The floods of 1953 saw Dutch waters rise to 3.85 meters (12.6 ft) above sea level. Today's storm was not the remains of Hurricane Noel, which is currently over northern Canada.


Figure 1. Visible satellite image of Europe from 1322 GMT November 8, 2007. A powerful 975 mb low pressure system centered north of England ("L" on the image) was pushing a strong cold front southwards towards Western Europe. Image credit: University of Bern, Switzerland.


Figure 2. Forecast waves heights at 6am Greenwich time, Friday November 9, 2007, as predicted by NOAA's Wavewatch III model.

Tropical update
An area of disturbed weather over the extreme southern Caribbean, near Panama, is under about 20 knots of wind shear. The computer forecast models are predicting that some development of this region may occur by Sunday, when wind shear is expected to fall below 20 knots. However, the models are less keen on this prospect than yesterday. Any system that might form is expected to move westward and affect Costa Rica and Nicaragua.

I'll have an update Monday morning, unless there's some new development this weekend.

Jeff Masters

Gales at the Butt (kevindonner)
Storm force winds made taking a good picture difficult, as the lence of the camara got salt on it.
Gales at the Butt

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521. tiggeriffic
12:21 AM GMT on November 11, 2007
I found it orca...pulled it up alphabetically...
Member Since: September 16, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 3599
520. Orcasystems
12:19 AM GMT on November 11, 2007
Hey "T I double G'er" the link should work for lakes blog
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519. tiggeriffic
12:18 AM GMT on November 11, 2007
anyone else still here?
Member Since: September 16, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 3599
518. tiggeriffic
11:48 PM GMT on November 10, 2007
ok, i'm alone again...
Member Since: September 16, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 3599
517. tiggeriffic
11:37 PM GMT on November 10, 2007
hey mermaid...cold in Charleston too! Live only a few miles from the beach...down right fridged past few days!
Member Since: September 16, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 3599
516. tiggeriffic
11:32 PM GMT on November 10, 2007
found lake's blog...pretty interesting...noticed the acorn theory too... here is another acorn theory...
when trees are inundated with acorns (as they are now in my area of the SE) it will be a long and cold winter (more food for the critters to eat) it also coinsides with climate cycles...it is believed that the amount of acorns correlates with the spring of 2 years ago...wet spring in 05 means abundance of acorns for 07...this seems to follow hurricanes as well...go back to Hugo...acorns seemed to be missles...it snowed in SC on the coast that year!
Member Since: September 16, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 3599
515. mermaidlaw
11:28 PM GMT on November 10, 2007
Hi there Tigger. I can tell you that it was 34 degrees on my front porch this morning, and I am in brooksville FL. north west of Tampa by about 50 miles! BURRRRRR!
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514. tiggeriffic
11:24 PM GMT on November 10, 2007
HG, guess mine will be the only post for another hour...rofl
Member Since: September 16, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 3599
513. tiggeriffic
11:22 PM GMT on November 10, 2007
so what is it...no one wants to post with little action? could always talk about NE getting snow (wish it would snow here), signs of winter coming (we are inundated with acorns) or just plain utter nonsense to relieve the stress of the season...lol
Member Since: September 16, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 3599
512. tiggeriffic
11:21 PM GMT on November 10, 2007
went to look at Lake's blog, couldn't find it on the list...was interested
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511. tiggeriffic
11:21 PM GMT on November 10, 2007
lol, just got home and popped on
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510. HurricaneGeek
6:16 PM EST on November 10, 2007
tigger, u made the first post in over an Hour!!!
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509. tiggeriffic
11:14 PM GMT on November 10, 2007
evening all...what is this about the indian way of predicting snow fall?
Member Since: September 16, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 3599
507. Weather456
6:06 PM AST on November 10, 2007
Storm System Over Atlantic Canada





Member Since: July 24, 2005 Posts: 407 Comments: 19076
506. Orcasystems
9:55 PM GMT on November 10, 2007
Storm, did you go and read Lakes blog about the Indian way of figuring out how many snowfalls you might get in a given year?

Link
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504. Orcasystems
9:41 PM GMT on November 10, 2007
Cancun
1 month 24 days 20 hours 16 min

:)
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503. HadesGodWyvern (Mod)
9:25 PM GMT on November 10, 2007
Tropical Disturbance Summary (2130z 10Nov)
=============================================
An area of convection (91B) persisted near 10.1N 92.6E or 90 NM south of Andaman Islands. Animated Enhanced Infrared Satellite Imagery shows deep convection flaring over an increasingly well developed low level circulation center. AMSU-B Microwave Image and Windsat Microwave Image depicts an improved LLCC.

Upper level analysis shows convection is being enhanced by strong diffluent flow over the disturbance. Vertical wind shear has decreased and is no longer impeding development.

Maximum sustained winds near the center is 25-30 knots with minimum sea level pressure of 1004 mb. Due to improved upper level environment, increased organization of the low level circulation center, and decreasing vertical wind shear, the potential of this system to form into a significant tropical cyclone within the next 24 hours is upgraded to GOOD.

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502. HadesGodWyvern (Mod)
7:52 PM GMT on November 10, 2007
India Meteorological Department
High Seas Forecast
Issued at 1800z November 10th 2007
==============================

Storm ID: ----

Region: Bay of Bengal

Location: 7.0N 94.0E

Winds: Sustained winds is 15 knots/20 knots gusts becoming cyclonic.

Weather: Fairly widespread rain/thunderstorm east of 85E. Rest of area is isolated.

Visibility: poor.

Sea Conditions: slight to moderate.
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501. nrtiwlnvragn
7:37 PM GMT on November 10, 2007
472. EddieG 5:01 PM GMT on November 10, 2007
I am re-posting this because I'm hoping it catches someone's eye:
UNUSUAL HAZE - NE CARIBBEAN




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500. Ivansrvivr
2:12 PM EST on November 10, 2007
I too am fascinated by winter storms. Especially Nor'easters. I experienced the 93 superstorm. I was driving from Nashville thru Birmingham to S. Florida and experienced both the cold side (thundersnow) and the warm side squall line. Those storms are as interesting as hurricanes.
499. hurricane23
14:00 EST le 10 novembre 2007
497. Miamiweather 13:27 EST le 10 novembre 2007
Hey 23 do you think it is over time to relax?

Been over for a while now my friend!What you up been up to?Iam probably heading to the movies later probably to dolphin mall to see american gangster.There is slim chance of seeing something in the caribbean but as far as a landfall threat for the U.S the window for that has already closed till next season.

Have a great weekend buddy looks great outside with near 0 chance for precip. Adrian
Member Since: May 14, 2006 Posts: 8 Comments: 13597
498. stoormfury
6:31 PM GMT on November 10, 2007
it appears that a LLC is trying yo form a few hundred miles SE of Jamaica.
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497. Miamiweather
6:26 PM GMT on November 10, 2007
Hey 23 do you think it is over time to relax?
496. hurricane23
13:22 EST le 10 novembre 2007
495. Bonedog 13:21 EST le 10 novembre 2007
hurricane I dont have an off season LOL We are just getting into my favorite season... Winter Storm season

Tropical cyclone wise across the tropical atlantic is what i meant.It also continues for me as iam looking on finishing up my degree sometime next year.Also track tropical cyclones worldwide.

I think i'll stick with my 80's forcast down here across south florida.Good luck outthere. Adrian
Member Since: May 14, 2006 Posts: 8 Comments: 13597
495. Bonedog
1:20 PM EST on November 10, 2007
hurricane I dont have an off season LOL We are just getting into my favorite season... Winter Storm season
Member Since: July 14, 2005 Posts: 14 Comments: 7418
494. hurricane23
13:14 EST le 10 novembre 2007
Hey why dont we track events in space lol!

Great pics though for 456!

Let the long offseason roll.
Member Since: May 14, 2006 Posts: 8 Comments: 13597
493. Weather456
2:14 PM AST on November 10, 2007
Quikscat and Satellite imagery showed a recent surge of southeasterlies from the South Pacific enhance low level inflow, lift and instability over the SW Caribbean. This is also matched by an increase of mid latitude flow from the Northern hemisphere, which occurred during passage of a recent front over the continental us which gave way to ridging which provided the aforementioned flow.
Member Since: July 24, 2005 Posts: 407 Comments: 19076
492. Weather456
2:11 PM AST on November 10, 2007
thanks
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491. Bonedog
1:09 PM EST on November 10, 2007
456 you get some of the best sat imgages
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490. Weather456
1:39 PM AST on November 10, 2007


Zoom

Member Since: July 24, 2005 Posts: 407 Comments: 19076
489. Bonedog
1:02 PM EST on November 10, 2007
Im back. Uploaded alot of photos out of my camera. Needed to clean the mem card.

Cant wait till xmas for the new camera though :)
Member Since: July 14, 2005 Posts: 14 Comments: 7418
488. GBlet
5:41 PM GMT on November 10, 2007
I am sooo jealous right now. We need snow or rain! I am ready to lite my fireplace and watch the snow fall.Would even put up with no electricity.
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487. Patrap
11:42 AM CST on November 10, 2007
LSU ESL page Link
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 414 Comments: 125613
486. Bonedog
12:39 PM EST on November 10, 2007
LOL tigger. I could see that happening. From watching the local news must just by my neighborhood. According to them there was no snow accumulation
Member Since: July 14, 2005 Posts: 14 Comments: 7418
485. tiggeriffic
5:39 PM GMT on November 10, 2007
BBL, got to go put gas in the truck and go to pharmacy... BOUNCE OUT!
Member Since: September 16, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 3599
484. tiggeriffic
5:37 PM GMT on November 10, 2007
what had happened was that there was so much humidity in the air that the freezing temps squeezed it out in the form of snow...it was weird, but hey, in the south...2" of snow means no school or work, the bridges all close due to no snow removal equipment here!
Member Since: September 16, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 3599
483. tiggeriffic
5:34 PM GMT on November 10, 2007
i remember about 7 - 8 years ago...crystal clear night...below freezing temps...weatherman said no chance of precip...i walked outside and told hubby (southerner) it smells like snow...he insisted I was nuts! About 4am he woke me up to say we had 2" of snow on the ground and did I wanna come play in the snow...I pulled the covers over my head and said "Nope...I'm NOT nuts!" lol
Member Since: September 16, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 3599
482. tiggeriffic
5:32 PM GMT on November 10, 2007
went to crown weather....lots of high shear out in the Atlantic right now...
Member Since: September 16, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 3599
481. Bonedog
12:31 PM EST on November 10, 2007
LOL tigger. I wish i could send it your way. Gotta love the dusting forcast
Member Since: July 14, 2005 Posts: 14 Comments: 7418
480. tiggeriffic
5:25 PM GMT on November 10, 2007
eddie, have not heard anything bout that haze...sorry
Member Since: September 16, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 3599
479. tiggeriffic
5:22 PM GMT on November 10, 2007
send some snow our way!...I think the SE may get some this year...we are inundated with acorns...usually means 2 things...long cold winter (more food for critters) and cold cycle coming in...(2 years ago had wet early spring)...start of cold cycle
Member Since: September 16, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 3599
478. Bonedog
5:21 PM GMT on November 10, 2007
hey tig

was organizin photos
Member Since: July 14, 2005 Posts: 14 Comments: 7418
477. tiggeriffic
5:19 PM GMT on November 10, 2007
scrolling back, 92L looks a little impressive on the satelite...already appears to have that comma going on...
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476. tiggeriffic
5:17 PM GMT on November 10, 2007
where did everybody go?....(must be playin hide and seek)
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475. tiggeriffic
5:14 PM GMT on November 10, 2007
hey bone, not sure if son has snow in RI...have not talked to him since before the front moved thru
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474. tiggeriffic
5:11 PM GMT on November 10, 2007
morning all...snow pics are beautiful! I miss the snow sooooo much...

so do we have 92L out there?
Member Since: September 16, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 3599
473. ShenValleyFlyFish
11:29 AM EST on November 10, 2007
461. Weather456 11:14 AM EST on November 10, 2007
Looky looky

456. Weather456 12:04 PM AST on November 10, 2007

Coincidence


Quick: Go play those numbers
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472. EddieG
5:01 PM GMT on November 10, 2007
I am re-posting this because I'm hoping it catches someone's eye:
UNUSUAL HAZE - NE CARIBBEAN
Here in the N Virgin Islands we have experienced an unusual haze on several occasions in the last six weeks or so - a silverly smoky looking pall that yesterday afternoon reduced visbilty to about five miles (barely). It doesn't look like the sahara dust, it's silvery not beige-ish yellow, and it comes and goes much quicker: Yesterday (9 Nov) morning was cristal clear, by mid-afternoon it was looking smoky, and right before sunset, islands only five miles away were almost invisible. However this AM St. Croix, 50 miles to the S., was clear as a bell.
Has this been occurring elsewhere? Any comments or ideas, anyone
Member Since: August 28, 2004 Posts: 0 Comments: 3

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About JeffMasters

Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.